Premier League bosses are this weekend scrambling to finalise a landmark £836m financial settlement just days before the publication of legislation to establish English football’s first statutory regulator.
Sky News has learnt that the 20 top-flight clubs, which include Aston Villa, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur, will on Monday be asked to approve a revised version of a ‘New Deal’ with the English Football League (EFL) that will include proposals for an increased levy on player transfers.
Industry sources said that if the New Deal was approved at the Premier League shareholder meeting, it would then be submitted to the EFL for ratification.
The revamped blueprint, which comes after several previous versions were blocked by Premier League clubs, includes provision for an immediate £44m payment to the lower leagues, followed by a further £44m within months.
This £88m, however, would effectively be pitched as a loan that would be repayable by the EFL over a period of more than six years.
On Saturday, there were growing signs that the Premier League would struggle to obtain the required support of 14 clubs to approve the resolution, with at least two clubs said to have already decided to oppose it.
The Premier League is understood to have decided to make the vote independent of any conditions attached to wider financial reform of English football, which has alarmed a number of top-flight owners.
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Anxiety has been heightened in recent weeks by the disclosure – revealed by Sky News – that an unnamed club, said to be reigning champions, Manchester City, is pursuing legal action to overturn rules on associated party transactions.
Some analysts have flagged privately that if Manchester City was successful in its action, it could have grave implications for the entire system of Financial Fair Play across Europe.
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The £836m, which rises to £924m with the additional instalments totalling £88m, is partly hypothetical in that it is based on a calculation of net media revenues.
Monday’s vote is likely to be the last before the government publishes the Football Governance Bill, which will pave the way for the establishment of a new regulator with powers to impose a financial redistribution agreement on the sport.
The legislation is likely to be introduced this month, according to Whitehall sources.
Rishi Sunak has warned English football’s power-brokers that a deal will be introduced regardless of their willingness to agree it – a threat which has sparked fury among club-owners who believe the Conservatives are themselves risking the financial sustainability of the professional game.
“My hope is that the Premier League and the EFL can come to some appropriate arrangement themselves – that would be preferable,” the prime minister said in January.
“But, ultimately, if that’s not possible, the regulator will be able to step in and do that to ensure we have a fair distribution of resources across the football pyramid, of course promoting the Premier League but supporting football in communities… up and down the country.”
Under the deal to be presented on Monday, the existing 4% transfer levy would rise to 6%, and then 7%, during the duration of the agreement with the EFL.
One source said the increased levy would put the Premier League at a financial disadvantage against other European domestic leagues including in Germany, Italy and Spain.
Funding for the New Deal would also be derived from existing mechanisms which are used fund the Premier League’s annual solidarity payments to the EFL.
Some Premier League bosses believe the initial £88m to be handed over this season, which would come from the top division’s financial reserves, would not, ultimately, be subject to repayment.
A meeting late last month did not proceed to a vote, even after talks between Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, and the 92 professional clubs, in which she urged them to resolve their differences over the prospective agreement.
Talks over the New Deal have been dragging on for well over a year.
At one point last autumn, a £925m agreement looked to be inching closer, but the two sides failed to bridge their remaining differences.
In December, Richard Masters, the Premier League chief executive, notified clubs that it was calling a halt to further talks with the EFL because of divisions about the scale and structure of the proposed deal.
At a meeting with shareholders last month, however, he suggested that negotiations had again become more constructive.
Some clubs appear to be resigned to the lack of a voluntary agreement, and believe the new regulator will be charged with imposing a deal as one of its first priorities.
With the time required to establish the watchdog and get it fully operational, though, government officials believe it could be 2026 before it is in a position to do so.
There has been significant unrest among Premier League clubs over the cost of the subsidy to the EFL, as well as the lack of certainty about the regulator’s powers and other financial reforms.
At least one club in the bottom half of the Premier League is understood to have raised the prospect of having to borrow money this year to fund its prospective share of the handout to the EFL.
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It is among a number of governance and legal headaches facing the Premier League, with a fresh fight looming with Manchester City over the associated party transaction rules which most affect clubs with state, private equity or multi-club ownership structures.
In a white paper published last year, the government said: “The current distribution of revenue is not sufficient, contributing to problems of financial unsustainability and having a destabilising effect on the football pyramid.
The document highlighted a £4bn chasm between the combined revenues of Premier League clubs and those of Championship clubs in the 2020-21 season.
The FFP regime has also ensnared clubs including Everton, which recently had a ten-point deduction reduced to six, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest.
The Premier League declined to comment this weekend.
The owner of Poundland, one of Britain’s biggest discount retailers, has drafted in City advisers to explore radical options for arresting the growing crisis at the chain.
Sky News has learnt that Pepco Group, which has owned Poundland since 2016, has hired consultants from AlixPartners to address a sales slump which has raised questions over its future ownership.
City sources said this weekend that the crisis would prompt Pepco to explore more fundamental for Poundland, including a formal restructuring process that could prompt significant store closures, or even an attempt to sell the business.
AlixPartners is understood to have been formally engaged last week, with options including a company voluntary arrangement or restructuring plan said to have been floated by a range of advisers on a highly preliminary basis.
Sources close to the group said no decisions had been taken, and that the immediate focus was on improving Poundland’s cash performance and reviving the chain’s customer proposition.
A sale process was not under way, they added.
Poundland trades from 825 stores across the UK, competing with the likes of Home Bargains, B&M and Poundstretcher, as well as Britain’s major supermarket chains.
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Last year, the British discounter recorded roughly €2bn of sales.
It employs roughly 18,000 people.
Earlier this week, Pepco Group, the Warsaw-listed retail giant which also trades as Pepco and Dealz in Europe, said Poundland had seen a like-for-like sales slump of 7.3% during the Christmas trading period.
In its trading statement, Pepco said that Poundland had suffered “a more difficult sales environment and consumer backdrop in the UK, alongside margin pressure and an increasingly higher operating cost environment”.
“We expect that the toughest comparative quarter for Poundland is now behind us – the same quarter last year represented a period prior to the changes made within our clothing and GM [general merchandise] ranges – and therefore, we expect the negative sales performance for Poundland to moderate as we move through the year.”
It added that Poundland would not increase the size of its store portfolio on a net basis during the course of this year.
“We are continuing a comprehensive assessment of Poundland to recover trading and get the business back to its core strengths, including undertaking a thorough assessment of all costs across the business, as well as evaluating its overall competitive positioning,” it added.
The appointment of AlixPartners came several weeks after Stephan Borchert, the Pepco Group chief executive, said he would consider “every strategic option” for reviving Poundland’s performance.
He is expected to set out formal plans for the future of Poundland, along with the rest of the group, at a capital markets day in Poland on 6 March.
Among the measures the company has already taken to halt the chain’s declining performance have been to increase the range of FMCG and general merchandise products sold at its traditional £1 price-point.
Poundland’s crisis contrasts with the health of the rest of the group, with Pepco and Dealz both showing strong sales growth.
A spokesman for Pepco Group, which has a market capitalisation equivalent to about £1.7bn, declined to comment further on the appointment of advisers
The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.
Why is this happening?
Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.
This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.
The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.
Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.
What is the FTSE 100?
The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.
Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.
Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.
If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.
The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.
A good close for markets
It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.
Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.
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3:18
They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week
Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.
The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.
Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.
Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned against the prospects of a renewed US-led trade war, just days before Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term in the White House.
The world’s lender of last resort used the latest update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) to lay out a series of consequences for the global outlook in the event Mr Trump carries out his threat to impose tariffs on all imports into the United States.
Canada, Mexico, and China have been singled out for steeper tariffs that could be announced within hours of Monday’s inauguration.
Mr Trump has been clear he plans to pick up where he left off in 2021 by taxing goods coming into the country, making them more expensive, in a bid to protect US industry and jobs.
He has denied reports that a plan for universal tariffs is set to be watered down, with bond markets recently reflecting higher domestic inflation risks this year as a result.
While not calling out Mr Trump explicitly, the key passage in the IMF’s report nevertheless cautioned: “An intensification of protectionist policies… in the form of a new wave of tariffs, could exacerbate trade tensions, lower investment, reduce market efficiency, distort trade flows, and again disrupt supply chains.
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Trump’s threat of tariffs explained
“Growth could suffer in both the near and medium term, but at varying degrees across economies.”
In Europe, the EU has reason to be particularly worried about the prospect of tariffs, as the bulk of its trade with the US is in goods.
The majority of the UK’s exports are in services rather than physical products.
The IMF’s report also suggested that the US would likely suffer the least in the event that a new wave of tariffs was enacted due to underlying strengths in the world’s largest economy.
The WEO contained a small upgrade to the UK growth forecast for 2025.
It saw output growth of 1.6% this year – an increase on the 1.5% figure it predicted in October.
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4:45
What has Trump done since winning?
Economists see public sector investment by the Labour government providing a boost to growth but a more uncertain path for contributions from the private sector given the budget’s £25bn tax raid on businesses.
Business lobby groups have widely warned of a hit to investment, pay and jobs from April as a result, while major employers, such as retailers, have been most explicit on raising prices to recover some of the hit.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the IMF’s update: “The UK is forecast to be the fastest growing major European economy over the next two years and the only G7 economy, apart from the US, to have its growth forecast upgraded for this year.
“I will go further and faster in my mission for growth through intelligent investment and relentless reform, and deliver on our promise to improve living standards in every part of the UK through the Plan for Change.”