NHL playoff watch: Making sense of the Metro Division
With the trade deadline behind us, we’ve rounded the corner to the final part of the season: the rush to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
As things stand on Monday, the Eastern Conference playoff bracket includes four teams from the Atlantic Division and four from the Metropolitan. The New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes look pretty secure in their postseason slots; Stathletes’ projections agree, with each club having a 99.9% chance of qualifying. Then things get interesting.
The Philadelphia Flyers, with 74 points in 65 games, are in the No. 3 spot, and are a tiebreaker behind the first wild card, then Tampa Bay Lightning (were Philly to fall out of contention for the top three Metro Division spots). Stathletes gives the Flyers a 28.5% chance of sticking in the No. 3 spot, a 5.6% chance of getting the first wild card, and a 19.2% chance of getting the second.
That leads us to the New York Islanders. After Sunday’s win against the Anaheim Ducks, they are tied in points with the Detroit Red Wings for the second wild card (but ahead on points percentage for now), and two points behind Philly in the Metro race. Stathletes likes the Isles’ chances of getting in the No. 3 seed more than the Flyers’, with New York’s at 45.9%. The Isles have a 5.8% chance of the first wild card, and 17.1% of the second.
The Washington Capitals — who subtracted at the deadline, though maybe not as much as some predicted — are three points back of the wild card and five back of the Flyers; their overall playoff chances sit at 41.3%. Finally, the New Jersey Devils, who finished with 112 points in the standings last season, are six back of the wild card and eight back of the Flyers. Their chances of a playoff berth in any fashion are at 11.2%.
Four of those teams will be in action tonight: Devils-Rangers (7 p.m. ET, NHL Network), Capitals-Winnipeg Jets (7:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), and Islanders-Los Angeles Kings (10:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). We won’t have any definitive answers after the games this evening, but the desperation level has certainly ramped up for the clubs currently on the outside looking in.
As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Boston Bruins vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers
Western Conference
C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
C2 Winnipeg Jets vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Monday’s games
Note: All times Eastern. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).
St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers, 7 p.m. (NHLN)
Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets, 7:30 p.m.
New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings, 10:30 p.m.
Sunday’s scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Minnesota Wild 4, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Carolina Hurricanes 7, Calgary Flames 2
Chicago Blackhawks 7, Arizona Coyotes 4
New York Islanders 6, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 116
Next game: @ DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. STL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 87.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 29.4%
Tragic number: 36
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 4.2%
Tragic number: 27
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 71
Next game: vs. PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22
Metropolitan Division
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. NYR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 53.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 94
Next game: @ LA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 69.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 91
Next game: @ WPG (Monday)
Playoff chances: 41.3%
Tragic number: 37
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 11.2%
Tragic number: 30
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 3.3%
Tragic number: 30
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 69
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 18
Central Division
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. WSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ WPG (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 88.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. ARI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 8.5%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ BOS (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.7%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 72
Next game: @ MIN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 16
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 49
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. NYI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 89.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 96
Next game: @ SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 87.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 11.4%
Tragic number: 30
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 86
Next game: vs. COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 13.8%
Tragic number: 30
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 63
Next game: @ CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 10
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 51
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 2
P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.
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Greg Wyshynski
The sea of white in Winnipeg chanted “M-V-P!” in unison during the Jets‘ Game 2 win over the Dallas Stars on Friday night. Goalie Connor Hellebuyck heard and appreciated those chants.
“It means a whole lot. I love this crowd. I love this city,” said Hellebuyck, who stopped 21 shots in Winnipeg’s 4-0 victory that evened their Western Conference semifinal series at 1-1.
It was Hellebuyck’s first playoff shutout since a 1-0 blanking of the Edmonton Oilers in the first round in 2021, and the fourth postseason shutout of his career. Hellebuyck led the NHL with eight shutouts in the regular season, which helped him become a finalist for the Hart Trophy as league MVP and for the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top goaltender, an award he won last season and in 2020.
Prior to Friday night, he had not been that same goaltender in the postseason.
Considered by many the best netminder in the world, Hellebuyck was the worst goalie statistically in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs entering Game 2. He was 4-4 with an .836 save percentage, the lowest for any goalie with at least three postseason games played. He was last in the playoffs through eight games with a minus-9.68 goals saved above expected. He had a 3.75 goals-against average as well, after sporting a GAA of 2.00 and a .925 save percentage in the regular season.
Yet the Jets’ faith in their goaltender never wavered.
“We rely on him. Sometimes too much. But he was incredible tonight,” said defenseman Josh Morrissey, who missed Game 1 against Dallas and most of Game 7 against St. Louis with an injury. “That’s what he does every night for us. He’s an incredible goaltender. He makes very difficult saves look very easy, routinely and often. You could tell he was feeling it tonight. When he’s feeling it like that, it gives the players in front of him a lot of confidence.”
Jets coach Scott Arniel said his goalie was “fantastic” in Game 2.
“Sometimes we take him for granted because he makes the hard look easy, but he had some acrobatic ones tonight,” Arniel said.
That was especially true in the second period. The Jets built a 2-0 lead in the first period on goals by Gabriel Vilardi and Nik Ehlers, whose shot deflected off the skate of Dallas defenseman Esa Lindell. Hellebuyck made nine saves in that opening frame.
“We pushed hard in the second to try and climb back in the game,” said Dallas coach Peter DeBoer. “Hellebuyck made some saves. We get one there, maybe the momentum shifts. But that was the game. He was a good. He was really good. We can always make it more difficult on him, but he was really good.”
After the game, Hellebuyck told Sportsnet that he believed he was back on his game after the shutout win.
“Now it’s locked in. We broke it down to build it back together,” he said. “I like where it’s at. I like where the team’s playing. I’m really excited for the series. It’s been fun.”
Whether the fun continues on the road for Sunday’s Game 3 is anyone’s guess.
Hellebuyck was a disaster in the Jets’ three games in St. Louis, giving up 16 goals on 66 shots (.758 save percentage) and getting pulled in each loss. In his past eight postseason road games, Hellebuyck is 1-7 with a .838 save percentage and a 5.19 goals-against average.
“We’re still playing hockey, and it’s May. That’s fun. It’s the best time of year, because you’ve dialed your game in all year long,” Hellebuyck said.
The Jets said they need to be better in front of their goalie on the road.
“It’s going to be a tough building. They grabbed home ice from us by winning Game 1,” Arniel said. “It’s [about] lessons learned. Take some of the things from that series. We know we have to do a lot of what we did tonight.”
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