How UK-made cars are finding their way to Russia’s showrooms

Published

10 months ago

March 12, 2024

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British carmakers appear to have continued selling hundreds of millions of pounds of luxury vehicles to Russia even after the invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions, exporting the cars indirectly via former Soviet states, Sky News analysis suggests.

While direct British car exports to Russia have fallen to zero following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, that collapse has been followed by a corresponding increase in car exports to countries neighbouring Russia, most notably Azerbaijan.

Our analysis, based on official HMRC trade data, finds that the UK exported £273m of vehicles to Azerbaijan last year, a 1,860% increase compared with the five-year period preceding the invasion.

Not only is the increase in exports to Azerbaijan unprecedented, it is of a similar magnitude to the annual car exports to Russia in the two years before the imposition of sanctions, which averaged £330m.

Alongside the UK HMRC statistics, Sky News has analysed UN international trade data which shows that over precisely the same period that Britain recorded an unprecedented increase in car exports to Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan recorded an unprecedented increase in car exports to Russia.

The data chimes with testimony from Sky sources, who told us that while Russian car buyers sourcing German vehicles have primarily sent them via Kyrgyzstan, they prefer to use Azerbaijan as a route for British cars.

British carmakers insist that they are no longer selling cars to Russia. And the government data, collected by the HMRC on all goods leaving the country, do not constitute proof that the cars ended up in Russia. It is impossible to track each British consignment once it has left port, especially once it has arrived at a third country.

However, the government is concerned about this grey area, whereby goods may be sent to Russia via former Soviet satellite states in the Caucasus and central Asia.

Cars are among the items banned from Russia under the so-called “dual use” sanctions regime. There is a specific ban of the sale of luxury cars – those worth more than £42,000 – to Russia.

The HMRC database, which also shows the count of cars sold as well as the total value, reveals that the average value of UK cars exported to Azerbaijan was more than £100,000 – suggesting that the consignments are primarily or exclusively luxury cars.

Britain’s motoring lobby group the SMMT said: “UK vehicle manufacturers are committed to full compliance with all current and future trade sanctions.

“While trade flows can vary and, indeed, be quite volatile with growing economies, there is no available evidence to indicate a lack of compliance with existing sanctions, but manufacturers will remain vigilant, and would condemn any party that puts their commitment to compliance at risk.”

Sanctions experts said part of the challenge in combating the flow of goods to Russia via third countries (as appears to be happening in this case) is that it is very difficult, sometimes near impossible, to track those consignments once they enter those other countries.

Tom Keatinge, Director at the Centre for Financial Crime & Security Studies, Royal United Services Institute says: “There are obviously very close economic ties between places like Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia, they sit within a kind of common economic area. And so really, once the good is in that area, your ability to track it as the manufacturer in the UK is lost.

“What you should of course, be asking yourself, when it comes to exporting that car, or whatever it might be initially is, ‘Do I really think that this exporter who’s suddenly come out of nowhere to buy 100 cars Is actually importing cars only into that third country? Or might they be trying to make money out of circumventing sanctions and selling that onward into Russia?'”

Rolls-Royce, which is owned by BMW, said: “Rolls-Royce Motor Cars ceased production and supply of cars for the Russian market in late February 2022, before international trade sanctions were put in place. In the meantime, governments have implemented far-reaching sanctions, which we fully comply with and support.

“Retail sales of cars to clients are managed by our global dealer network, comprised of independently owned and operated businesses. Our global dealer network is contractually obliged to follow all applicable national and international legal regulations, including those relating to export control.

“If any new Rolls-Royce motor car has been imported into Russia since late February 2022 this has been done so without the knowledge or support of Rolls-Royce Motor Cars.”

A representative from Bentley, owned by VW, said: “We are committed to full compliance with all current and future trade sanctions and there is no evidence to suggest a lack of compliance with existing sanctions, or indeed a change of sales trend in Azerbaijan.”

While the HMRC data does not identify specific carmakers or consignments, it does show that the port most used for this particular trade from the UK was the Port of Bristol, which had never previously exported more than a few million pounds worth of goods each year to Azerbaijan. In the two years following the invasion it saw those exports shoot up to more than £100m a year. The Port of Bristol did not respond to Sky News’s requests for a comment.

For the UK as a whole, the dramatic rise in car exports to Azerbaijan stands out in the trade statistics. In the space of a couple of years, this state of 10 million people, with a GDP around the same size as Ghana, has become the UK car industry’s 16th biggest export destination by value, ahead of Austria, Portugal and Sweden.

Sky News has previously shown that many other banned items, including those known to have been repurposed as weapons, have been sent to former Soviet states in the Caucasus and Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. Those states have all recorded sharp increases in their exports to Russia.

Britain’s sanctions minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan said: “The work of investigative journalists and NGOs’ continuing efforts to highlight circumvention are an important part of our collective efforts to track and evidence Putin’s abhorrent crimes.

“We have introduced the largest and most severe package of sanctions ever imposed on Russia or indeed any major economy with 2,000 individuals and entities under the Russia regime. Alongside our international allies we’ve been clear no country should be propping up Russia’s war machine.

“We continue to bear down on those who do business with Putin and his cronies, including sanctioning individuals who try to bypass our sanctions, and working with partners and a range of third countries to stem the flow of goods into Russia.”

World

LA fires: Data and videos reveal scale of ‘most destructive’ blazes in modern US history

Published

11 hours ago

January 11, 2025

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LA fires: Data and videos reveal scale of 'most destructive' blazes in modern US history

The fires that have been raging in Los Angeles County this week may be the “most destructive” in modern US history.

In just three days, the blazes have covered tens of thousands of acres of land and could potentially have an economic impact of up to $150bn (£123bn), according to private forecaster Accuweather.

Sky News has used a combination of open-source techniques, data analysis, satellite imagery and social media footage to analyse how and why the fires started, and work out the estimated economic and environmental cost.

More than 1,000 structures have been damaged so far, local officials have estimated. The real figure is likely to be much higher.

“In fact, it’s likely that perhaps 15,000 or even more structures have been destroyed,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at Accuweather.

These include some of the country’s most expensive real estate, as well as critical infrastructure.

Accuweather has estimated the fires could have a total damage and economic loss of between $135bn and $150bn.

“It’s clear this is going to be the most destructive wildfire in California history, and likely the most destructive wildfire in modern US history,” said Mr Porter.

“That is our estimate based upon what has occurred thus far, plus some considerations for the near-term impacts of the fires,” he added.

The calculations were made using a wide variety of data inputs, from property damage and evacuation efforts, to the longer-term negative impacts from job and wage losses as well as a decline in tourism to the area.

The Palisades fire, which has burned at least 20,000 acres of land, has been the biggest so far.

Satellite imagery and social media videos indicate the fire was first visible in the area around Skull Rock, part of a 4.5 mile hiking trail, northeast of the upscale Pacific Palisades neighbourhood.

These videos were taken by hikers on the route at around 10.30am on Tuesday 7 January, when the fire began spreading.

At about the same time, this footage of a plane landing at Los Angeles International Airport was captured. A growing cloud of smoke is visible in the hills in the background – the same area where the hikers filmed their videos.

The area’s high winds and dry weather accelerated the speed that the fire has spread. By Tuesday night, Eaton fire sparked in a forested area north of downtown LA, and Hurst fire broke out in Sylmar, a suburban neighbourhood north of San Fernando, after a brush fire.

These images from NASA’s Black Marble tool that detects light sources on the ground show how much the Palisades and Eaton fires grew in less than 24 hours.

On Tuesday, the Palisades fire had covered 772 acres. At the time of publication of Friday, the fire had grown to cover nearly 20,500 acres, some 26.5 times its initial size.

The Palisades fire was the first to spark, but others erupted over the following days.

At around 1pm on Wednesday afternoon, the Lidia fire was first reported in Acton, next to the Angeles National Forest north of LA. Smaller than the others, firefighters managed to contain the blaze by 75% on Friday.

On Thursday, the Kenneth fire was reported at 2.40pm local time, according to Ventura County Fire Department, near a place called Victory Trailhead at the border of Ventura and Los Angeles counties.

This footage from a fire-monitoring camera in Simi Valley shows plumes of smoke billowing from the Kenneth fire.

Sky News analysed infrared satellite imagery to show how these fires grew all across LA.

The largest fires are still far from being contained, and have prompted thousands of residents to flee their homes as officials continued to keep large areas under evacuation orders. It’s unclear when they’ll be able to return.

“This is a tremendous loss that is going to result in many people and businesses needing a lot of help, as they begin the very slow process of putting their lives back together and rebuilding,” said Mr Porter.

“This is going to be an event that is going to likely take some people and businesses, perhaps a decade to recover from this fully.”

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

World

They are hurting but managing to find hope in ‘tomorrow’ – the residents who have lost everything in the LA fires

Published

11 hours ago

January 11, 2025

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They are hurting but managing to find hope in 'tomorrow' - the residents who have lost everything in the LA fires

They are the displaced and there are tens of thousands of them, 600 in an evacuation centre we visited.

From elderly people who fled without their medication, to pregnant mothers desperate to escape the smoke, they had nowhere else to go.

Jim Mayfield, who has lived in the northern suburb of Altadena for 50 years, wept as he told me his dogs, Monkey and Coca, were all he had left.

He said: “The fire was coming down, a ball of fire, it hadn’t made it to my house, but then I woke up and I seen it so I had to start evacuating.

“I had to grab my dogs, I didn’t have enough water and my house is burned down to the ground.”

Sheila Kraetzel, another elderly resident, relived the sense of terror as homes were engulfed by the flames.

She said: “I smelt smoke, I was sleeping, and my dog alerted me that there was trouble.

“When I looked outside, there were embers floating across my yard.

“My whole neighbourhood is gone.”

“It was a beautiful, unique place,” she added, smiling.

Asked how she could smile, she fought back tears and replied: “Well, there’s tomorrow you know.”

How anyone could find hope amid the destruction we have witnessed here is beyond me.

There are people handing out food and water, medical staff doing what they can. Volunteers have rallied from far and near.

One of them, Stephanie Porter, told me it felt “heavy” inside the centre.

“You walk through and see the despair on people’s faces, not knowing what their next step is, not knowing if their house is still standing,” she said.

“I had to take a few moments… and kind of cry, and then you go back to serve.

“It just breaks your heart.”

Three miles up the road, Altadena resembles a war zone, but residents have not been allowed to return.

When they finally do, they’ll discover there’s nothing left of the material lives they left behind.

World

The chancellor’s gamble with China: What price is Rachel Reeves willing to pay for closer trading ties?

Published

11 hours ago

January 11, 2025

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The chancellor's gamble with China: What price is Rachel Reeves willing to pay for closer trading ties?

Given gilt yields are rising, the pound is falling and, all things considered, markets look pretty hairy back in the UK, it’s quite likely Rachel Reeves’s trip to China gets overshadowed by noises off.

There’s a chance the dominant narrative is not about China itself, but about why she didn’t cancel the trip.

But make no mistake: this visit is a big deal. A very big deal – potentially one of the single most interesting moments in recent British economic policy.

Why? Because the UK is doing something very interesting and quite counterintuitive here. It is taking a gamble. For even as nearly every other country in the developed world cuts ties and imposes tariffs on China, this new Labour government is doing the opposite – trying to get closer to the world’s second-biggest economy.

The chancellor‘s three-day visit to Beijing and Shanghai marks the first time a UK finance minister has travelled to China since Philip Hammond‘s 2017 trip, which in turn followed a very grand mission from George Osborne in 2015.

Back then, the UK was attempting to double down on its economic relationship with China. It was encouraging Chinese companies to invest in this country, helping to build our next generation of nuclear power plants and our telephone infrastructure.

But since then the relationship has soured. Huawei has been banned from providing that telecoms infrastructure and China is no longer building our next power plants. There has been no “economic and financial dialogue” – the name for these missions – since 2019, when Chinese officials came to the UK. And the story has been much the same elsewhere in the developed world.

In the intervening period, G7 nations, led by the US, have imposed various tariffs on Chinese goods, sparking a slow-burn trade war between East and West. The latest of these tariffs were on Chinese electric vehicles. The US and Canada imposed 100% tariffs, while the EU and a swathe of other nations, from India to Turkey, introduced their own, slightly lower tariffs.

But (save for Japan, whose consumers tend not to buy many Chinese cars anyway) there is one developed nation which has, so far at least, stood alone, refusing to impose these extra tariffs on China: the UK.

The UK sticks out then – diplomatically (especially as the new US president comes into office, threatening even higher and wider tariffs on China) and economically. Right now no other developed market in the world looks as attractive to Chinese car companies as the UK does. Chinese producers, able thanks to expertise and a host of subsidies to produce cars far cheaper than those made domestically, have targeted the UK as an incredibly attractive prospect in the coming years.

And while the European strategy is to impose tariffs designed to taper down if Chinese car companies commit to building factories in the EU, there is less incentive, as far as anyone can make out, for Chinese firms to do likewise in the UK. The upshot is that domestic producers, who have already seen China leapfrog every other nation save for Germany, will struggle even more in the coming year to contend with cheap Chinese imports.

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Whether this is a price the chancellor is willing to pay for greater access to the Chinese market is unclear. Certainly, while the UK imports more than twice as many goods from China as it sends there, the country is an attractive market for British financial services firms. Indeed, there are a host of bank executives travelling out with the chancellor for the dialogue. They are hoping to boost British exports of financial services in the coming years.

Still – many questions remain unanswered:

• Is the chancellor getting closer to China with half an eye on future trade negotiations with the US?

• Is she ready to reverse on this relationship if it helps procure a deal with Donald Trump?

• Is she comfortable with the impending influx of cheap Chinese electric vehicles in the coming months and years?

• Is she prepared for the potential impact on the domestic car industry, which is already struggling in the face of a host of other challenges?

• Is that a price worth paying for more financial access to China?

• What, in short, is the grand strategy here?

These are all important questions. Unfortunately, unlike in 2015 or 2017, the Treasury has decided not to bring any press with it. So our opportunities to find answers are far more limited than usual. Given the significance of this economic moment, and of this trip itself, that is desperately disappointing.