Breakout players from the top 25 teams to watch in 2024
Last week we took a look at season-defining matchups from the Way-Too-Early Top 25 teams ahead of the 2024 season.
This week, our writers picked potential breakout stars from each of those top 25 teams to watch for this upcoming season.
With former starting inside linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson transferring to Kentucky, the Bulldogs are looking for someone to start next to Smael Mondon Jr. in the middle of their defense. After a knee injury that he suffered in preseason camp in 2023, sophomore Raylen Wilson showed flashes of why he was one of the most coveted linebacker prospects in the country as a senior at Lincoln High School in Tallahassee, Florida. Wilson was named to the SEC All-Freshman team after totaling 15 tackles and a half-sack in 12 games. He was one of the fastest runners in the state in the 100-meter dash and was once clocked at 24 mph on GPS. — Mark Schlabach
Five-star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (No. 4 in 2024 ESPN 300) was the crown jewel of a recruiting class for Ohio State that ended up third in ESPN’s rankings. With Marvin Harrison Jr. prepping for the NFL draft as a probable top-five pick, the 6-foot-3, 200-pound Smith will likely be given every opportunity to help fill that void. Smith, who played for Florida powerhouse Chaminade-Madonna Prep, had 90 receptions for 1,389 yards and 19 touchdowns as a senior. His arrival will give Ryan Day, new OC Chip Kelly and transfer QB Will Howard an exciting addition to play around with. — Blake Baumgartner
As the Ducks transition from Bo Nix to transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel, it would not surprise me to see the running game become an even bigger part of the Oregon offense in 2024. With standout Bucky Irving headed to the draft, the stage is set for running back Jordan James to take on a bigger role in the backfield. The rising junior from Tennessee is coming off an extremely efficient season in his second year with the Ducks, averaging over 7 yards per carry on 107 attempts along with 11 rushing touchdowns. James might have already broken out in 2023, but a second leap this season could establish him as one of the more productive backs in the country as part of an offense that will score and score often. — Paolo Uggetti
Last year, five-star recruit Anthony Hill Jr. played a major role at linebacker as a true freshman. This year’s version could be Colin Simmons, a coveted edge rusher who was No. 12 overall prospect in the final ESPN 300. The Longhorns boasted one of the best defensive lines in the country last year, but T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II provided most of the push up the middle and are gone to the draft. Adding an elite pass-rusher at end to pair with UTSA transfer Trey Moore, who had 14 sacks last year, gives the Longhorns a whole new element on defense. — Dave Wilson
Notre Dame should have one of the best tight end tandems in the country with Mitchell Evans and Eli Raridon. Both are big targets in the passing game and should provide nice safety valves and imposing red zone targets for transfer QB Riley Leonard, but both have a lot of room for growth after solid showings last season. Their success is critical for Notre Dame, too, as the Irish could be something of a work in progress at wideout. — David Hale
The Rebels won’t be lacking for talent in their wide receiver room this season. Tre Harris is back and so is Jordan Watkins, along with South Carolina transfer Antwane “Juice” Wells Jr. But the player poised to make the biggest jump is sophomore Cayden Lee, who made his first career start last season in the 38-25 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl win over Penn State. Lee showed flashes of what he’s capable of with three catches for 29 yards against the Nittany Lions. The 5-11, 175-pound Lee has elite speed and is electric after the catch. — Chris Low
Luther Burden III won’t be the only receiver Brady Cook will be throwing touchdown passes to in 2024. Marquis Johnson had his moments as a freshman a year ago. He’ll have even more moments as a sophomore, making for what should be an explosive tandem for the Tigers at wideout. The 5-11, 180-pound Johnson caught 13 passes for 383 yards and three touchdowns last season, including a 76-yard touchdown against Memphis. Along with great speed, Johnson also plays a lot taller than he is. He once high jumped 6-4 when he was in high school. — Low
Quinton Martin (No. 91 in the 2024 ESPN 300) was nothing short of dynamic for Belle Vernon High School in Pennsylvania. The No. 1 player in Pennsylvania decided to stay home. He will add to the impressive stable of running backs the program has produced recently, with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton spearheading the current roster. How the Nittany Lions choose to use the 6-foot-2, 195-pound Martin, who had 1,945 total yards and 27 total touchdowns as a senior last year, to supplant Allen and Singleton will be interesting to watch. — Baumgartner
Alabama fans were clamoring to see more of freshman running back Justice Haynes last season, but he played primarily on special teams. He got his most work at running back in the Rose Bowl loss to Michigan and should be a major part of the Crimson Tide’s offense in Year 1 under Kalen DeBoer. The 5-11, 205-pound sophomore was ranked by ESPN as the nation’s No. 2 running back prospect coming out of high school and had three touchdowns in Alabama’s spring game a year ago. He has the family background (his father, Verron Haynes, played at Georgia and in the NFL) and the strength, power and speed to emerge as one of the SEC’s most explosive running backs in 2024. — Low
The Utes lost two key defensive backs in NFL-bound safeties Sione Vaki and Cole Bishop, turning the position from a place of strength into a question mark. However, the array of options the Utes have at the position has shown promise, including Tao Johnson — who started 12 games at nickelback in 2023 — and has the ability to slide over to safety, as he did during a few coverages last season. Johnson arrived in Utah as a wide receiver, a position where he got limited time as a freshman in 2022, before making the transition to defense. Last year, Johnson finished with 33 total tackles and five pass deflections and showed the ability to become one of the Utes’ key players on defense in 2024. — Uggetti
The void left behind at slot receiver after Jacob Cowing’s departure is not to be ignored. Cowing caught 90 passes for 848 yards and 13 touchdowns in his final season at Arizona. He may have hinted at who could be up for replacing him when he said freshman Carlos Wilson reminded him a lot of himself. The true freshman from Sacramento, California, has the speed and agility to become a big-play threat for quarterback Noah Fifita immediately, and Cowing himself described Wilson as “electric.” In players like Malachi Riley and Kevin Green Jr., the Wildcats have multiple candidates for wide receivers who could break out in 2024, but soon enough defenses might need to keep an eye on Wilson too. — Uggetti
Tigers running back Kaleb Jackson already had a viral moment early in his freshman season when he stiff-armed a would-be tackler to the ground and then bulldozed defensive back Isaac Smith on a run in a 41-14 victory at Mississippi State. Former LSU receiver Malik Nabers compared Jackson’s powerful running style to former Tigers star Leonard Fournette. ESPN analyst Jesse Palmer compared his massive legs to Eagles star Saquon Barkley’s. Jackson, who played high school football about three miles from Tiger Stadium, ran for 165 yards with four touchdowns as a freshman. With Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. leaving for the NFL, Jackson should have a much bigger role in 2024. — Schlabach
Jadyn Davis (No. 166 in the 2024 ESPN 300) is the first ESPN 300 quarterback to sign with Michigan since J.J. McCarthy in 2021. And Davis might very well replace McCarthy as the pilot of an offense that averaged 382.7 yards last season on the way to winning the national championship. The 6-1, 200-pound Davis completed 71% of his passes for 3,370 yards with 43 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 13 games for Providence Day School (North Carolina), and Wolverines fans will be anxiously awaiting what Davis will be able to do. — Baumgartner
A year ago, safety Peyton Bowen arrived as a five-star recruit, ranked No. 14 nationally, hoping he could help be the future of OU’s defense after a disappointing 2022 season. He was able to carve out a role, playing in all 13 games with two starts, 36 tackles (including a season-high 5 against Texas), a sack, 5 passes broken up and a forced fumble. He also showed off his game-breaking ability with two blocked punts, most in the Big 12. He is poised to play an aggressive style under new defensive coordinator Zac Allen, who worked as an assistant under Sooners coach Brent Venables at Clemson when he was the Tigers’ defensive coordinator. Last year, Allen’s defense at Jacksonville State allowed just 2.8 yards per carry (fourth nationally), and was in the top 10 in turnovers (25) and interceptions (16). — Wilson
When DT Darrell Jackson Jr. transferred to Florida State last year from Miami, he was hopeful the NCAA would grant him a waiver to play because he had made the decision to move closer to his ailing mother. But the NCAA decided to crack down on issuing waivers to two-time transfers, and Jackson ultimately had to sit out. Now, we will get our first extended look at the 6-foot-5, 334-pound redshirt junior since he started 12 games for the Hurricanes in 2022. Coaches have raved about his size, power and athleticism, making him a player to watch this year. — Andrea Adelson
Easy call here. It’s Nico Iamaleava‘s show at quarterback for the Vols. He accounted for four touchdowns in his first start as a freshman last season in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl victory over Iowa and earned MVP honors. Iamaleava served as Joe Milton III’s backup during the 2023 season, and it was only a matter of time before his strong arm, quick release and presence in the pocket pushed him to QB1 for Tennessee. There’s been a ton of hype surrounding Iamaleava ever since he stepped foot on campus. He gets his chance in 2024 to show that he’s as advertised. — Low
It has to be QB Alan Bowman. If Oklahoma State is going to reach its full potential this season, it has to be Bowman. He’s entering his seventh season of college football after spending the first three with Texas Tech, two at Michigan and this past season as Oklahoma State’s starter. He completed just under 61% of his passes for 3,460 yards, 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He’ll be 24 years old by the time the season rolls around; you just have to hope there’s a leap in his game. — Harry Lyles Jr.
NC State has always done a nice job utilizing hybrid players in unique roles, from Jaylen Samuels to Kevin Concepcion. That makes UConn transfer Justin Joly a particularly intriguing addition. He’s a 6-3, 230 pounder who led the Huskies in receiving last year with 56 catches for 578 yards, working ostensibly as a tight end. He’s undersized for that role, but at NC State, he could be a nice option as an in-line blocker, working from the slot or lined up outside. He’ll create mismatches, and that plays right into OC Robert Anae’s playbook. — David Hale
Receiver has been a place for improvement for Clemson the past several years. In 2021, Beaux Collins was the breakout star as a true freshman, but injuries and regression resulted in his transfer after last season. In 2022, Antonio Williams was the team’s leading receiver as a true freshman, but he spent most of 2023 battling injuries. As a result, last year, the Tigers again relied on a true freshman to carry the unit, as Tyler Brown broke out with 52 catches. Still, Clemson hasn’t had a receiver with 700 yards since 2020. Williams should be healthy in 2024, Brown has a year of experience under his belt, and Dabo Swinney is very high on sophomore WR Cole Turner. But the biggest names to watch might be a pair of true freshmen. Bryant Wesco is an early enrollee with huge upside, while TJ Moore is a five-star recruit who figures to make an instant impact, perhaps becoming the fourth-straight true freshman to anchor the Tigers’ receiving corps. — Hale
This one is an easy selection, and it’s quarterback Avery Johnson. Replacing Will Howard, who transferred to Ohio State during the offseason, is a big task, especially given how successful this team has been over the past few seasons. You saw flashes of Johnson’s potential in the Pop Tarts Bowl against NC State, where he threw for two touchdowns, and ran for one more (including an efficient seven carries for 71 yards). He’s a true dual-threat quarterback who will be leading the Wildcats into the future. — Lyles
Tough choice here, as there are several players who are in line to have a big year, particularly among the transfer class. But I will go with transfer WR Caullin Lacy, who was extremely productive during his time at South Alabama. Last season, Lacy ranked fifth in the country in both receptions (91) and receiving yards (1,316) and had eight 100-yard receiving games. Louisville did not have a 1,000-yard receiver a year ago and loses top pass-catcher Jamari Thrash. There’s an opportunity for someone to step up among the group of receivers, and Lacy will have every opportunity to help the Cards put together a far more consistent performance from this position group. — Adelson
Perhaps this doesn’t constitute the entire spirit of a “breakout” player, but I’m going to go with wide receiver Lawrence Arnold. This is a Kansas offense that’s returning Devin Neal at running back, who certainly could have gone to the NFL, and a healthy Jalon Daniels, who we know to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Arnold has hit over 700 yards receiving the past two seasons. My hope here is Daniels stays healthy, and Arnold plays with one quarterback all season and breaks through to the 1,000-yard mark for this Kansas offense. — Lyles
Before transfer quarterback Brock Vandagriff signed to play at Georgia in 2021, then-Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley had handpicked him to run his high-octane offense. The former five-star recruit was regarded as one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. In three seasons at Georgia, Vandagriff couldn’t unseat starters Stetson Bennett and Carson Beck. Vandagriff attempted 21 passes at Georgia, and Wildcats coach Mark Stoops is counting on him to lead his offense. Stoops likes Vandagriff’s experience and the fact he’ll bring a winning attitude to the locker room. He’ll get a chance to play his former team when the Bulldogs play at Kentucky on Sept. 14. — Schlabach
We have not seen TE Elijah Arroyo at his full potential because of a knee injury in 2022 that has limited his playing time with the Canes. But now healthy and participating in spring practice, Arroyo could have the type of season that adds his name to all the others who have come through Tight End U. Coaches believe he has had as good or better an offseason as anyone in the program. At 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, Arroyo has the type of size to be a matchup advantage for the Canes, who have made it a priority, with Arroyo healthy, to make sure the tight end is incorporated far more into the passing game. — Adelson
Rueben Owens, who’s a 6-2, 200-pound running back, was one of the most coveted recruits in the country in the 2023 class, and he was a late recruiting win for Jimbo Fisher before the December signing day. Owens showed what he can do as a freshman, running for 385 yards and three touchdowns. New offensive coordinator Collin Klein’s arrival from Kansas State should be a huge boost for Owens and the Aggie running game in general, which ranked 90th last season. In both of Klein’s two seasons as OC in Manhattan, K-State ranked in the top 15 nationally in rushing offense, including 11th last year (averaging 204.1 yards per game and 4.98 yards per carry to A&M’s 136.2 and 3.88 ypc). Owens stands to benefit from the new era in Aggieland. — Wilson
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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