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Inflation ticked up in the latest figures from the U.S. government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released March 12. It’s not a huge rise, but enough to keep the eroding value of the dollar in the headlines, feed Americans’ dissatisfaction with the economy, and be received as very bad news by the White House. The president and his allies work hard to claim credit for what they tout as a thriving economy, but all they’ve done is link the Biden brand to rising prices and a general distaste for the president’s management.

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Δ Rising Prices, Again

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in January,” according to the BLS. “Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.”

That’s a big improvement over the 9.1 percent that inflation hit in 2022. But it’s still a reminder to the public that the money in their wallets buys less with each passing day. It’s also an open-handed slapthough with the sting felt by consumersto free-spending politicians who long pantomimed concern about inflation while openly pursuing policies that drove prices to rise.

“For years, economic thinkers on the left pushed for more government spending and urged the Federal Reserve to be less paranoid about inflation, with the goal of driving down unemployment as low as possible,” Victoria Guida wrote last month for Politico.

President Joe Biden and company eagerly adopted the idea, pushing for not billions, but trillions of dollars in spending, deficits, and debt on the theory that Americans would like the results.

But “Americans don’t seem very enthused,” Guida added. “Because they really hate inflation.” Inflation Causes Pain

People dislike inflation because it’s death to budgeting, savings, and financial planning. Inflation creates a race between wages and prices, making it difficult to know if income will cover the same groceries, rent, and other costs that it did in the past.

“Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4 percent from January to February,” BLS announced the same day it released CPI figures. That said, over the past year, there was “a 1.1-percent increase in real average weekly earnings” according to the same news release. But not all measures point to wages keeping up.

“Inflation-adjusted wages have shrunk by 3.7 percent since the end of 2020,” the Manhattan Institute’s Stephen Miran commented in November, based on the Employment Cost Index, a different BLS measure that shows wages still struggling to catch up with the declining value of the dollar. “Worse, the drop in real wages erased all gains made in the late 2010s.”

Either way, it’s enough to say that inflation makes life unpredictable and causes pain.

In the latest monthly survey by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, inflation ranked as the top economic issue on people’s minds as they determined their votes for president, picked by 67 percent of respondents. Almost two-thirds of respondents said they “cut back on non-essential spending, like vacations, eating out, or entertainment” in response to rising prices; half “cut back on spending for food and everyday necessities.”

Unsurprisingly, people are not happy with politicians who visit inflation upon them. In that survey, 45 percent said President Biden’s economic policies hurt the economy (31 percent said they helped) and 59 percent disapproved of his handling of economic issues (36 percent approved). Americans agree with the White House that the president’s self-labeled “Bidenomics” have had an impact, but they don’t like the results. Many economists concur, specifically when it comes to inflation. Government Irresponsibility With Money Causes Inflation

“Inflation comes when aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply,” economist John Cochrane of the Hoover Institution and the Cato Institute wrote this month for the International Monetary Fund. “The source of demand is not hard to find: in response to the pandemic’s dislocations, the US government sent about $5 trillion in checks to people and businesses, $3 trillion of it newly printed money, with no plans for repayment. Other countries enacted similar fiscal expansions and reaped inflation in proportion.”

True, the spending frenzy began when Donald Trump was president, but Biden embraced the idea as his own. Now, the White House boasts of vast “generational investments” that “reverse decades of disinvestment in public goods,” but there’s a direct connection between a tidal wave of government borrowing and spending and the eroding value of people’s money.

“The mantras of the 2010s’secular stagnation,’ ‘modern monetary theory,’ ‘stimulus’which preached that prosperity needed only for the government to borrow or print a huge amount of money and hand it out, are in the dustbin. You asked for it. We tried it. We got inflation, not boom,” adds Cochrane.

That leaves the Biden administration wearing the consequences of the “Bidenomics” spending it touted as an albatross around its own neck. There is no escape from policies which politicians deliberately and publicly embraced when the public turns against them.

“There’s a healthy amount of fear and introspection happening among the architects of these efforts that folks aren’t necessarily buying what we’re selling,” a prominent progressive told Politico’s Guida. Brace for More of the Same

Unfortunately for anybody who fears irresponsible government largesse leading to ever-more economic chaos, the Biden administration seems determined to double down on high spending and massive borrowing in its economic policies going forward.

“For fiscal year 2025, which begins on October 1 of this year, Biden is asking Congress to spend $7.3 trillion while the federal government will collect just $5.5 trillion in taxes,” Reason’s Eric Boehm reported this week. “That will necessitate borrowing $1.8 trillion to make ends meet. Over the 10-year window covered by the president’s budget plan, federal revenues would exceed $70 trillion, but Biden is proposing to spend $86.6 trillion.”

With floods of money from the government linked to eroding purchasing power, it’s interestingfor a certain value of the wordto contemplate what BLS news releases about prices and wages might look like in the years to come. And to anticipate the corresponding pain from pinched budgets.

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Business

IMF upgrades UK economic growth forecast – but issues tariffs warning

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IMF upgrades UK economic growth forecast - but issues tariffs warning

The UK economy will grow more than previously thought, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has upgraded its latest forecast.

It also said the Bank of England should “continue to ease monetary policy gradually”, indicating it expected further reductions in interest rates.

But it warned trade tensions linked to US tariff plans will reduce UK economic growth next year.

The Washington-based UN financial agency said the UK economy will expand 1.2% this year and “gain momentum next year”.

The upgrade in forecasts, however, is slight, up from an expected 1.1% announced in April as the world reeled from the global trade war sparked by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

That April figure was a 0.5% downgrade from the projected 1.6% growth for 2025 the IMF foresaw in January and the 1.5% forecast issued in October.

It means the IMF expects the UK economy to grow less this year than it forecast in October and January.

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Tariffs warnings

This anticipated lower growth is largely due to tariffs – taxes on goods imported to the United States – and the uncertainty caused by shifting trade policy in the US, the world’s largest economy.

While many tariffs have been paused until 8 July, it’s unclear if deals will be in place by then and if pauses may be extended.

The effect of this has been quantified as a 0.3 percentage points lower growth by 2026 in the UK, the IMF said.

The organisation held its prediction that the UK economy will grow by 1.4% in 2026.

“The forecast assumes that global trade tensions lower the level of UK GDP by 0.3% by 2026, due to persistent uncertainty, slower activity in UK trading partners, and the direct impact of remaining US tariffs on the UK,” it said.

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Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know

It comes despite the UK having agreed a deal with the Trump administration to circumvent the 25% tariffs on cars and metals.

The IMF also cautioned that “weak productivity continues to weigh on medium-term growth prospects”.

Lower productivity has been an issue since the global financial crash of 2008-2009, but has been caused by “chronic under-investment”, low private sector research and development, limited access to finance for businesses to expand, skill gaps, and a “deterioration in health outcomes”, it said.

Interest rates

Interest rates “should” continue to come down, making borrowing cheaper, though the IMF acknowledged rate-setters at the Bank of England now have a “more complex” job due to the recent rise in inflation and “fragile” growth.

The author of the report on the UK, Luc Eyraud, said the IMF expected the Bank to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points every three months until they reach a level of around 3%, down from the current 4.25%.

Praise was given to the UK government as the IMF said “fiscal plans strike a good balance between supporting growth and safeguarding fiscal sustainability”.

“After a slowdown in the second half of 2024, an economic recovery is under way,” the IMF said.

Global factors – “weaker export performance in the challenging global environment” – are blamed for the slowdown last year.

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The news is being taken as a win by Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

“The UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 for the first three months of this year and today the IMF has upgraded our growth forecast,” she said.

“We’re getting results for working people through our plan for change – with three new trade deals protecting jobs, boosting investment and cutting prices, a pay rise for three million workers through the national living wage, and wages beating inflation by £1,000 over the past year.”

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Business

What is the two-child benefit cap and will Labour scrap it?

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What is the two-child benefit cap and will Labour scrap it?

The government is considering getting rid of the two-child benefit cap first brought in by the Conservatives.

The policy has caused considerable consternation within the Labour Party, with a growing number of MPs calling to scrap it and ministers so far refusing to.

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But now, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has given the government’s strongest hint yet it may scrap the cap after she told Sky News ministers are “considering” lifting it.

We look at what the cap is and the controversy over it.

What is the two-child benefit cap?

Since 2017, parents have only been able to claim child tax credit and universal credit for their first two children, if they were born after April 2017.

An exception is made for children born as a result of rape.

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Child benefit reform ‘not off the table’

Who introduced it?

Then work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith first proposed the policy in 2012 under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government.

It was not until 2015 that then chancellor George Osborne announced a cap would be introduced from the 2017/2018 financial year.

The coalition said it made the system fairer for taxpayers and ensured households on benefits faced the same financial choices around having children as those not on benefits.

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David Cameron on the 2015 campaign trail
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David Cameron’s government introduced the cap, though he was out of office by the time it came in

What is Labour’s position on the cap?

The party has long been divided over the issue, with Sir Keir Starmer ruling out scrapping the cap in 2023.

He then said Labour wanted to remove it, but only when fiscal conditions allowed.

Following Labour’s landslide victory last July, the prime minister refused to bow to pressure within his party, and suspended seven MPs for six months for voting with the SNP to scrap the cap.

Ministers have toed the party line for months, but the narrative started to shift in May, with Sir Keir reported to have asked the Treasury to see how scrapping it could be funded.

The publication of Labour’s child poverty strategy was delayed from the spring to autumn, fuelling speculation the government wants to use the next budget to scrap the cap.

Then the education secretary told Sky News on 27 May lifting the cap is “not off the table” – and “it’s certainly something that we’re considering”.

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Why did Labour delay their child poverty strategy?

How many children does the cap affect?

Government figures show one in nine children (1.6m) are impacted by the two-child limit.

In the first three months Labour were in power, 10,000 children were pulled into poverty by the cap, the Child Poverty Action Group found.

In May, it said another 109 children are pulled into poverty each day by the limit, adding to the 4.5 million already in poverty.

The Resolution Foundation said the cap would increase the number of children in poverty to 4.8 million by the next election in 2029-30.

Torsten Bell, the foundation’s former chief executive and now a Labour Treasury minister, said scrapping the cap would lift 470,000 children out of poverty.

Torsten Bell.
Pic: Dimitris Legakis/Athena Pictures/Shutterstock
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Torsten Bell has warned against keeping the cap. Pic: Dimitris Legakis/Athena Pictures/Shutterstock

How much would lifting the cap cost the taxpayer?

The cap means for every subsequent child after the first two, families cannot claim benefits worth £3,455 a year, according to the Institute for Government.

It estimates removing the limit would cost the government about £3.4bn a year – equal to roughly 3% of the total working-age benefit budget.

It is also approximately the same cost as freezing fuel duties for the next parliament.

Research has found the indirect fiscal impacts of lifting the cap could be higher, as some data shows investing in young children can pay for itself by causing better outcomes for them later in life.

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Technology

Tesla shares climb as Musk pledges to be ‘super focused’ on companies ahead of Starship launch

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Tesla shares climb as Musk pledges to be 'super focused' on companies ahead of Starship launch

Elon Musk listens as reporters ask U.S. President Donald Trump and South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa questions during a press availability in the Oval Office at the White House on May 21, 2025 in Washington, DC.

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Tesla shares gained about 5% on Tuesday after CEO Elon Musk over the weekend reiterated his intent to home in on his businesses ahead of the latest SpaceX rocket launch.

The billionaire wrote in a post to his social media platform X that he needs to be “super focused” on X, artificial intelligence company xAI and Tesla as they launch “critical technologies” on the heels of a temporary outage.

“As evidenced by the uptime issues this week, major operational improvements need to be made,” he wrote, adding that he would return to “spending 24/7” at work. “The failover redundancy should have worked, but did not.”

An outage over the weekend briefly shuttered the social media platform formerly known as Twitter for thousands of users, according to DownDetector. Earlier in the week, the platform suffered a data center outage. X has suffered a series of outages since Musk purchased the platform in 2022.

Read more CNBC tech news

Musk has previously indicated plans to step away from his political work and prioritize his businesses.

During Tesla’s April earnings call he said that he would “significantly” reduce his time running President Donald Trump‘s Department of Government Efficiency.

In the last election cycle, Musk devoted time and billions of dollars to political causes and toward electing Trump in 2024. However, a story over the weekend from the Washington Post, citing sources familiar with the matter, said that Musk has grown disillusioned with politics and wants to return to managing his businesses.

Last week, Musk said in an interview at the Qatar Economic Forum that he planned to spend “a lot less” on campaign donations going forward.

The comments from Musk precede SpaceX’s Starship rocket Tuesday evening. Pressure is on for the company after two Starship rockets exploded in January and March.

Ahead of the launch, Musk announced an all hands livestream on X at 1 p.m.

Tesla is still facing fallout from Musk’s political foray, with protests at showrooms and other brand damage.

In April, Tesla sold 7,261 cars in Europe, down 49% from last year, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association.

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Elon Musk: We have seen a major rebound in demand

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