Oil strategist says the market could be caught off guard by a crude spike this summer
Investors could be caught off guard by the strength of an oil price rally this summer, according to Morgan Stanley‘s Martijn Rats.
His comments came as oil prices rose on Wednesday amid fears of potential supply disruption after Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, and hopes that the Federal Reserve may soon start cutting interest rates which traditionally boosts demand.
International benchmark Brent crude futures for May delivery traded at $83.23 a barrel at 12:20 p.m. London time, up $1.3 for the session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for April delivery stood at $78.95, roughly $1.37 higher.
Brent futures have largely been trading in a narrow $75 to $85 interval since the start of the year.
“They are quite benign. We’ve had a nice rally [in] December, January and first half of February but the last couple of weeks we’ve been fairly rangebound,” Rats told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
“There is a view in the market that the non-OPEC producers can meet all of the demand growth this year and therefore there isn’t much incremental room for OPEC oil and that means you rely on continued OPEC cuts,” Rats said.
“Now, they are doing that, but people think that that dynamic for now puts a little bit of a cap on the price. We’ve had a good amount of spare capacity. I think the summer could be tighter than people expect but this is the dynamic that currently exists.”
A view of an oil well at Arab Desert in Jebel Dukhan, Bahrain on March 4, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to extend voluntary output reductions until the end of the second quarter in a bid to shore up the short-term stability of crude markets.
OPEC+ refers to a group of some of the world’s largest oil producers, including heavyweights such as Saudi Arabia and Russia.
‘Really elevated prices’
Asked why fuel supplies could be tighter in the summer, Rats said that the oil research community had been “quite cautious” about the outlook at the start of the year. However, a flurry of stronger-than-expected data had convinced many to upwardly revise oil demand forecasts.
“On the supply side, we’re seeing a slowdown in U.S. shale, we’ve seen a wobbly start in Brazil [and] we’ve seen a wobbly start in Canada. We expected inventories to build but year-to-date they are kind of flat. If in the first quarter, inventories [are] flat then they can draw possibly quite significantly during the summer period.”
Rats said there were plenty of indicators, such as physical differentials and refining margins, among others, that indicate the oil market has already tightened a bit more than the current spot price suggests.
“Now, at the moment we are going through oil refinery maintenance so [this] is always a bit of a soft part of the year but I think as the summer driving season unfolds, inventories draw … look, we’re not calling for the super cycle, but we could have a bit of strength in the summer.”
The summer driving season typically refers to the months between the U.S. Memorial Day and Labor Day holidays when people in the Northern Hemisphere tend to hit the roads.
Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy in late January, Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects said geopolitical factors such as the Israel-Hamas war and tensions in the Red Sea could also push oil prices higher this summer.
Reflecting on attacks in the Red Sea, Sen said that naphtha (a hydrocarbon mixture) and jet fuel markets had been significantly impacted.
“This is the weak period for jet demand,” Sen said.
“Summer jet is ahead of us, and we think these attacks are going to go on for months so we could see some really elevated prices into the summer.”
Ford’s “From America, For America” deal, offering employee pricing for all, is helping drive sales. But, with Trump’s new tariffs, how long will the savings last?
A handshake with every American
The campaign was introduced a little over a month ago, but CEO Jim Farley said it’s already giving the company a lift.
Ford launched the “From America, For America” campaign on April 3, promoting its “American-made” vehicles with some serious savings opportunities.
The offer includes employee pricing across most 2024 and 2025 Ford and Lincoln models. According to Ford, it’s a “handshake deal with every American.”
Ford is offering savings across all powertrains, including gas, hybrid, plug-in hybrid (PHEV), and electric vehicles. The only models excluded are Raptors, specialty Mustang and Bronco vehicles, the 2025 Expedition, Navigator, and Super Duty Trucks.
After seeing early success, the company extended the offer through the Fourth of July. Farley said the company has sold over 150,000 vehicles with employee pricing since April.
Customers are appreciating @Ford’s ‘From America, For America’ offer. We’ve sold 150,000+ vehicles w/ employee pricing since April. Grateful for our dealers and glad to be offering a good deal to our customers!
— Jim Farley (@jimfarley98) May 10, 2025
How long does Ford’s employee pricing offer last?
Like most of the auto industry, Ford is bracing for the impact of Trump’s new auto tariffs. However, it may be in a better position than other major automakers.
Since Ford builds a greater percentage of its vehicles in the US than any other major OEM, outside of Tesla, it isn’t expected to take as big of a hit.
After releasing first-quarter earnings last week, Ford warned that Trump’s tariffs could cost the company up to $2.5 billion in 2025. Crosstown rival GM estimated the extra tariffs could add an extra $4 billion to $5 billion in costs this year.
Ford made around 2 million vehicles in the US last year, according to S&P Global Mobility. With another 391,000 built in Mexico and 54,000 in Canada, Ford imported around 21% of its vehicles sold in the US. GM, on the other hand, imports around 46%.
Last week, a spokesperson confirmed with Electrek that Ford will raise prices on vehicles built in Mexico, including the Mustang Mach-E, Maverick pickup, and Bronco Sport.
The move is part of Ford’s “usual mid-year pricing actions combined with some tariffs we are facing,” the spokesperson told Electrek.
It will not impact vehicle prices at the dealership or in transit. The higher prices will affect imported cars from May 2, which are expected to arrive at dealerships in late June. By how much? Although full prices were not revealed, the spokesperson said the Bronco Sport Heritage saw a $600 increase, while the Maverick XLT AWD’s price increased by $700.
Ford’s employee pricing is still available on these vehicles through July 4. For EV buyers, Ford is offering a few extra savings opportunities.
Through its “Power Promise,” Ford is offering a free Level 2 home charger on any new EV lease or purchase. The company is sweetening the deal with some extra perks, including 24/7 live EV support, proactive roadside assistance, and an 8-year, 100,000-mile battery warranty.
Looking to score some savings while they are still here? We’ve got you covered. You can use our links below to find deals on new Ford F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E models in your area.
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The bitcoin mining company backed by President Donald Trump‘s sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., is set to go public on the Nasdaq through an all-stock merger with Gryphon Digital Mining.
Shares of Gryphon were up more than 300% Monday.
The combined company, American Bitcoin, will trade under the ticker symbol “ABTC,” with the transaction expected to close as early as the third quarter of 2025.
Existing stockholders of American Bitcoin, including the president’s two eldest sons, will own about 98% of the new entity.
It is the latest high-profile move from the Trump family’s growing crypto empire, which already includes the controversial $TRUMP meme coin that is offering a private dinner with the president to top holders of the coin.
Eric Trump, who is a co-founder and chief strategy officer of the mining firm, framed the move as part of a broader strategy to cement the country’s leadership in the global bitcoin mining race.
“Every single sophisticated country is using their excess power to mine bitcoin,” Trump previously told CNBC.
He distanced himself from any direct involvement with his father’s administration but made clear his belief that the U.S. must maintain a competitive edge in the crypto sector.
“We won the space race. We better win the crypto race,” he said.
On the campaign trail, the president repeatedly promised to support U.S.-based bitcoin miners, including telling executives at a closed-door event in Mar-a-Lago that he wants all future bitcoin should be minted on American soil.
The crypto market showed little reaction. Bitcoin is trading at around $104,000, roughly flat over the past 24 hours.
Environment
E-Dolphin looks to redefine the marine industry with its 58 mph all-electric S300 watercraft
A young marine electrification specialist called E-Dolphin is… making waves… with its flagship product – a 160-horsepower electric watercraft called the S300. Aside from a futuristic design with 90s-style neon green speckled flair, this vessel supports DC fast charging and can reach speeds over 55 mph.
E-Dolphin evolved from a sobering moment for its founder, Nicolas Florès, who grew up on the southern coast of France and realized that local dolphins were being exposed to pollutants (fuel, exhaust, and noise) expelled from traditional combustion watercraft.
In 2018, Florès took his knowledge from working in the EV industry and initiated an intensive R&D phase to electrify personal watercraft. This entailed creating an entirely custom powertrain system, including batteries and specialized motors.
After several prototype builds, E-Dolphin patented its first powertrain in 2020. That technology was implemented in the company’s first market-ready electric watercraft, the S300. The company has begun taking pre-orders for the personal watercraft before deliveries start later this year.
You can pre-order the S300 electric watercraft now
As you can see from the images above, E-Dolphin’s S300 electric watercraft blends sleek, modern styling with nostalgic flair, reminiscent of its Kawasaki and Yamaha predecessors from the 80s and 90s. While its neon spots might nod to the past, everything else in this vessel is highly modern.
The electric watercraft features a lightweight carbon fiber hull and an ergonomic seat for two. E-Dolphin also boasts that its vessels have an average lifespan double that of traditional personal watercraft. At the core of its performance (literally and figuratively) sits E-Dolphin’s proprietary powertrain, which delivers 160 horsepower and a top speed of 50 knots (57.5 mph).
The front features a 50-liter storage compartment below its handlebars, which features a full-color HD screen riders can use to monitor their speed, battery life, and navigation in real time. E-Dolphin is not sharing the chemistry of the 30 kWh battery pack in its electric watercraft but says it can navigate the waters for up to two hours on a single charge.
Another impressive feature is that the S300 electric watercraft supports CCS DC fast charging and can be replenished in under 30 minutes, making it easier to get back out to rip some aquatic donuts.
- Standard charging : 8 hours with monophase (220V)
- Fast charging : 2 hour 30 mins with monophase AC (220V) & Type 2
- Ultra Fast Charging : less than 30 mins with triphase DC (380V) & CCS
E-Dolphin has begun pre-orders for its S300, available with a €1,000 ($1,112) deposit. The entire electric watercraft costs €39,990 plus VAT ($44,500), and E-Dolphin plans 50 initial builds. Each early purchase comes with a lifetime warranty on the S300 electric watercraft.
After that, E-Dolphin targets scaled production to approximately 1,000 units per year in the next five years, with plans to expand availability to North America and Asia after European deliveries are steady.
First deliveries are expected to begin in Europe during Q3 of 2025.
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