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Growth returned in the UK economy in January, according to official figures.

The measure of everything produced in the UK – a metric called gross domestic product (GDP) – rose 0.2%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

It’s the first official economic growth announcement since a recession was declared last month as there were two successive three-month periods of negative economic growth.

When looked at over a three month period, GDP fell 0.1% up to January, compared to the three months to October, showing the economy is still struggling.

But the overall growth in January could mean the recession is the shortest ever in UK history, if the trend continued into February and March.

The main reason the economy grew was down to the customer-facing services industry, the ONS said, which expanded 0.2% in January and makes up a large chunk of the economy. Services are the largest part of the UK economy, comprising four fifths of output.

It was also a good month for construction with output having increased 1.1% over the month. Housebuilders had a good month after being subdued for much of the last year, the ONS said.

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Acting against the growth was falling TV and film production and the “often erratic pharmaceutical industry”, it added as production yields also dropped.

When broadened out over a three month period, however, building output fell 0.9% and no growth was recorded in the services sector.

The data, however, is just an estimate and is subject to revision.

Figures are routinely revised as more information becomes available. It’s possible the recession could be revised out of existence when the ONS announces February GDP sums and reassesses economic performance.

Strong retail sales had been reported for the first month of the year, of significance as they measure the largest expenditure across the UK economy.

Responding to the data, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said:

“While the last few years have been tough, today’s numbers show we are making progress in growing the economy – part of which makes it possible to bring down national insurance contributions by £900 this coming year.

“But if we want the rate of growth to pick up more we need to make work pay which means ending the unfairness of taxing work twice.”

TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said:

“The Conservatives have turned Britain into a stagnation nation. Our economy is barely growing, real wages are still worth less than in 2008 and the only thing shooting up is household debt.”

“We need a proper economic plan to turn the country around – not just short-term Tory gimmicks. That means a real industrial strategy. And it means making sure that our fiscal framework supports government investment in our crumbling infrastructure and public services.”

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.

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Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.

She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.

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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT

Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.

Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.

Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”

She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.

What’s facing Reeves?

Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.

Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.

The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.

Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.

Read more:
Jobs market continues to slow
Banks step up lobbying over threat of tax hikes

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The big issues facing the UK economy

‘I won’t duck challenges’

In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.

“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.

“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”

She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.

“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Blame it on the B word?

Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.

This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.

The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.

“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.

“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”

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Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

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Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

Unlimited leverage and sentiment-driven valuations create cascading liquidations that wipe billions overnight. Crypto’s maturity demands systematic discipline.

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NYC mayor establishes digital assets and blockchain office

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NYC mayor establishes digital assets and blockchain office

NYC mayor establishes digital assets and blockchain office

The executive order creating the Office of Digital Assets and Blockchain Technology under the New York City government came three months before Eric Adams will leave office.

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