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Analysts are releasing a wave of delivery estimate downgrades for Tesla as the automaker’s growth story is dissipating – at least for the next few years.

Tesla’s stock has been performing poorly this year. It is one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P500.

There are several different arguable reasons for that, but the main one appears to be Tesla’s dissipating growth story and the lack of a clear path back to it in the near term.

While Elon Musk likes to say that Tesla is a conglomeration of several different companies operating in a multitude of industries, its performance is almost entirely tied to vehicle sales for now.

Tesla has been growing at a roughly 50% rate per year on that front until last year, when it started to slow down.

It has been an incredible performance, but now the automaker has warned that its growth will slow this year as it is “between two waves of growth” with nothing in its lineup that can significantly contribute to its vehicle sales.

Wall Street analysts are trying to adjust to this new situation for Tesla, but they are having issues coming up with new numbers for this year and Tesla hasn’t said much.

Companies normally give clear guidance, but Tesla is an exception. For 2024, Tesla only noted that its growth rate “may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.”

It leaves a lot of room for speculation – and Wall Street loves to speculate.

Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.

Now, analysts are trying to estimate how many vehicles Tesla will deliver in Q1 2024 with a few weeks left in the quarter and it hasn’t been looking good.

As of a few days ago, the consensus was 479,400 vehicles, which is slightly down quarter-to-quarter, but up significantly year-over-year, which would be expected as Tesla added production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Berlin in 2023 – though it did had issues in Berlin this month with the factory being shut down for a week.

However, several analysts have released lower expectations in the last few days – leading to a gloomier look at the first quarter of the year for the automaker.

Deutsche Bank now estimates 427,000 deliveries in Q1, which would be a massive disappointment for Tesla.

UBS also lowered its estimate from 466,000 to 432,000 units in Q1.

Several other firms are making similar moves over the last few days – often accompanied by downgrades on Tesla’s stock. Most serious estimates now put Tesla’s deliveries between 425,000 and 435,000 units in Q1.

Tesla is expected to release its production and delivery numbers in the first few days of April.

Electrek’s Take

This is a real problem for Tesla. As I previously wrote, I think the Cybertruck was a mistake – not because it’s not a good vehicle, but because the resources spent developing it would have been better spent on a higher volume vehicle for Tesla to shorten the time between the two growth phases.

Now, Tesla is not expected to go back to a significant level of growth until 2027 based on its own estimates:

That’s a long time for what has been described as a “growth stock”.

Now, I honestly don’t know if these new lower estimates make sense for Q1. Tesla has seen lower production at Gigiafactory Shanghai due to the Chinese New Year and the shutdown at Gigafactory Berlin due to the arson attack.

On the demand side, Tesla is offering some significant discounts to sell everything it has, as usual.

Is that enough for a drop of 50,000 to 60,000 units quarter-to-quarter? I don’t know, maybe? What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.

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Chinese Buick Electra EV may be coming to the US after all

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Chinese Buick Electra EV may be coming to the US after all

File this under “wishful thinking” if you want, but a fresh trademark filing for the Buick Electra name could mean that the storied nameplate is set for a return to US shores.

GM Authority reports that Buick parent company General Motors has renewed its trademark for the Buick Electra name in the US in a filing from 09DEC2025 with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), and received an assigned serial number 99538079. The application carries a Goods and Services of, “Motor land vehicles, namely, automobiles.”

Electra a nameplate that holds a long history with the near-luxe Buick brand and has generally been believed to be one that’s especially relevant to Buick’s electrification strategy in the US. That’s a notion that seems especially true when you consider the following two facts:

  1. the Buick Electra nameplate is already featured on a number of hugely successful GM products being sold in the ultra-competitive Chinese market
  2. 2027 is the fortieth anniversary of the Buick Grand National, and GM’s marketers are way too smart to let that moment slide

It’s worth noting, of course, that this most recent renewal for the Buick Electra trademark is a long, long way from a confirmation of a new all-electric Buick for the US market and even further from a confirmation that we’re getting the hot, sexy Electra GM sells in China. If anything, it’s likely just a matter of course legal thing that GM needs to protect its IP in China while, at the same time, preventing some kind of disastrous Sierra Mist scenario from playing out at home (which– yeah, I get that it’s not true, but you got the idea).

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That said, I want to believe.

Electrek’s Take


I’m a huge fan of GM, GM’s EVs, and the way Mary Barra has managed the General over the past several years. I also think a big, sexy sedan is sorely missing from GM’s lineup, and the fast, flashy electric sedan formula might play better at the Buick store than at the Cadillac brand.

Combine that with an overwhelming desire to see a new-age Buick Grand National parked in my garage next Christmas and you can see that I’m not to be trusted. So, what say you? Head on down to the comments and let us know what you think of an American Electra revival just in time for the 2027 model year.

SOURCE | IMAGES: GM Authority; GM.


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Vale, Caterpillar set to expand autonomous mining operation

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Vale, Caterpillar set to expand autonomous mining operation

Heavy equipment giants Caterpillar have signed an agreement with Vale that will see the company dramatically expand its fleet of autonomous haul trucks deployed at iron ore operations in the Carajás region of Brazil over the next three years.

Vale’s Northern System mining operation currently has 14 CAT, 320-ton autonomous haul trucks in service. With this new deal, sold by Caterpillar’s Brazilian dealer, Sotreq, the autonomous haul truck fleet will expand to some ninety (!) of the massive, self-driving trucks by 2028. The big yellow trucks will be operated by CAT®, MineStar™ Command for hauling, and ship with a payload capacity of between 240 to an almost unimaginable 400 (!!) tons.

“We’re proud to introduce Cat Command for hauling at Vale’s Carajás site,” says Marc Cameron, Senior Vice President at Caterpillar. “By equipping Vale’s haul trucks with our autonomous technology, we will be delivering scalable solutions that meet their needs across a mixed fleet.”

CAT says this new deal represents, “a transformational leap,” citing the fact that autonomous trucks remove workers from hazardous areas and enable safer and more inclusive environments for mine employees – and more efficient operations for Vale.

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That fact is backed by results from other Vale operations that have deployed large numbers of autonomous vehicles, which saw gains of up to 15% in operational performance and a 7.5% reduction in fuel use (more with electric drive), contributing to the reduction of the company’s carbon emissions. And, because this is end-stage capitalism 2025, they’re crediting AI for discovering those efficiencies.

“By integrating autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, and advanced data analysis, we are modernizing our mining operations in the Northern Corridor, becoming a global benchmark in smart mining, promoting the transformation of the industry, and connecting us to international best practices,” says Rafael Bittar, Vale Vice President, Technical.

The trucks will be delivered over the next three years, and are expected to be in full operation and up to speed by 2030.

Electrek’s Take


Caterpillar and Luck Stone celebrate one million tons hauled autonomously at Bull Run Quarry
240 electric haul truck; via Caterpillar.

As I’ve said before, EVs and mining to together like peanut butter and jelly. In confined spaces, the carbon emissions and ear-splitting noise made by conventional, ICE-powered mining equipment can create dangerous circumstances that can lead to serious injuries (or worse), and that’s just going to make it even harder for a mining operation to keep people working and minerals coming out of the ground.

By working with companies like Caterpillar to prove that forward-looking electric equipment can do the job as well as well as (if not better than) their internal combustion counterparts, Vale will go a long way towards converting what’s left of the ICE faithful.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Vale, Caterpillar.


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Motiv, Workhorse merge to take on the ICE establishment

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Motiv, Workhorse merge to take on the ICE establishment

Electric medium-duty startups Motive and Workhorse have logged millions of miles across their customer fleets — and by joining forces, they’re out to prove, once and for all, that electric vehicles can get the job done.

Following shareholder votes last month, Ohio-based Workhorse and San Francisco-based Motive are merging to form one of the largest commercial electric vehicle and last-mile delivery telematics solutions companies in the industry.

The all-stock transaction, announced last week, values the combined company at approximately $105 million and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, subject to Workhorse shareholder approval.

Under the terms of the agreement, Motiv’s controlling investor will become the majority owner with approximately 62.5% of the combined company, while Workhorse shareholders will maintain a significant equity stake of approximately 26.5%.

FREIGHTWAVES

The move is intended to combine Workhorse’ manufacturing capabilities and nationwide dealer network with Motiv’s proven product portfolio and existing fleet relationships to serve the growing $23 billion medium-duty truck segment with a full range of Class 4-6 electric vehicles that plays to the strengths of both companies while, at the same time, proving them with economies of scale they’ll need to survive the next wave of fake “the EV market is dead” headlines.

“Bringing together two leading OEMs in the medium-duty space strengthens our ability to reduce the cost of electric trucks and make the total cost of ownership even more compelling,” said Scott Griffith, CEO of Motiv, who will lead the combined company. “We believe this is a coming-of-age moment — not just for Motiv and Workhorse, but for the industry as a whole.”

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The companies anticipate a minimum of $20 million in cost synergies by the end of 2026 through reductions in redundant R&D, G&A, and facility costs (and, of course, the associated layoffs).

Workhorse’s Union City facility has the capacity to eventually produce up to 5,000 trucks per year — a significant manufacturing scale for the merged operation and light years ahead of what Motiv’s existing facilities can crank out.

“This transaction represents a significant milestone for Workhorse, our customers, our stakeholders and our shareholders,” Rick Dauch, CEO of Workhorse and advisor to the new, combined company told FreightWaves. “We believe Motiv is the right partner to support the advancement of our combined product roadmap and capture new growth opportunities.”

The new, combined electric box van company will being life with 10 of the largest medium-duty fleets in North America as existing customers, and hopes to expand their line of offerings into the electric bus and RV markets in the years to come.

Electrek’s Take


FedEx Places First Order for 15 Workhorse W56 Step Vans to Grow Zero-Tailpipe Emission Fleet
Workhorse van deployed by FedEx; via Workhorse.

Workhorse and Motive can spin this merger however they like — but this move is as much about survival in the new, incentive-lite era of Trump 2 than it is about anything else. That doesn’t mean it’s not a smart move, as each of the parts of this new whole has eliminated a very strong competitor while, at the same time, gaining all at least some of their best features.

As cynical as I am about corporate consolidation and layoffs (especially during the holidays), I can’t help but think this could be a winning move.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Workhorse; via FreightWaves.


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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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