Tesla (TSLA) delivery estimates are plunging as growth story dissipates
Analysts are releasing a wave of delivery estimate downgrades for Tesla as the automaker’s growth story is dissipating – at least for the next few years.
Tesla’s stock has been performing poorly this year. It is one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P500.
There are several different arguable reasons for that, but the main one appears to be Tesla’s dissipating growth story and the lack of a clear path back to it in the near term.
While Elon Musk likes to say that Tesla is a conglomeration of several different companies operating in a multitude of industries, its performance is almost entirely tied to vehicle sales for now.
Tesla has been growing at a roughly 50% rate per year on that front until last year, when it started to slow down.
It has been an incredible performance, but now the automaker has warned that its growth will slow this year as it is “between two waves of growth” with nothing in its lineup that can significantly contribute to its vehicle sales.
Wall Street analysts are trying to adjust to this new situation for Tesla, but they are having issues coming up with new numbers for this year and Tesla hasn’t said much.
Companies normally give clear guidance, but Tesla is an exception. For 2024, Tesla only noted that its growth rate “may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.”
It leaves a lot of room for speculation – and Wall Street loves to speculate.
Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.
Now, analysts are trying to estimate how many vehicles Tesla will deliver in Q1 2024 with a few weeks left in the quarter and it hasn’t been looking good.
As of a few days ago, the consensus was 479,400 vehicles, which is slightly down quarter-to-quarter, but up significantly year-over-year, which would be expected as Tesla added production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Berlin in 2023 – though it did had issues in Berlin this month with the factory being shut down for a week.
However, several analysts have released lower expectations in the last few days – leading to a gloomier look at the first quarter of the year for the automaker.
Deutsche Bank now estimates 427,000 deliveries in Q1, which would be a massive disappointment for Tesla.
UBS also lowered its estimate from 466,000 to 432,000 units in Q1.
Several other firms are making similar moves over the last few days – often accompanied by downgrades on Tesla’s stock. Most serious estimates now put Tesla’s deliveries between 425,000 and 435,000 units in Q1.
Tesla is expected to release its production and delivery numbers in the first few days of April.
Electrek’s Take
This is a real problem for Tesla. As I previously wrote, I think the Cybertruck was a mistake – not because it’s not a good vehicle, but because the resources spent developing it would have been better spent on a higher volume vehicle for Tesla to shorten the time between the two growth phases.
Now, Tesla is not expected to go back to a significant level of growth until 2027 based on its own estimates:
That’s a long time for what has been described as a “growth stock”.
Now, I honestly don’t know if these new lower estimates make sense for Q1. Tesla has seen lower production at Gigiafactory Shanghai due to the Chinese New Year and the shutdown at Gigafactory Berlin due to the arson attack.
On the demand side, Tesla is offering some significant discounts to sell everything it has, as usual.
Is that enough for a drop of 50,000 to 60,000 units quarter-to-quarter? I don’t know, maybe? What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
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Aviation startup ZeroAvia says it’s been granted a “raft” of 45 new patents key to the development of practical large hydrogen aviation engines – and the company says it has 200 more H-related patents in the pipeline!
The news comes just weeks after ZeroAvia and Scottish regional airline Loganair announced a new, hydrogen-electric “turboprop” replacement motor capable of up to 5MW of shaft horsepower (~6,700 hp). United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) no. 12,341,225 covers an integrated hydrogen-electric engine design land is key to the development of a modular multi-MW hydrogen-electric engine for the ATR 42 and 72 model aircraft — which Loganair owns more than twenty of.
ATR isn’t the only potential customer ZerAvia is eyeballing, either. Despite hydrogen losing ground on utility-scale projects and more companies realizing that it’s “impossible” for hydrogen to compete as a transportation fuel, the fuel still seems to have some practical application in the aviation space. Both Airbus and Boeing have advanced plans and IP for hydrogen-ready airframes in recent weeks, as well, making the IP for large hydrogen-powered aviation engines that much more valuable.
“Recent patents filed and granted around hydrogen aviation give a window into an accelerating field of innovation,” explains Val Miftakhov, Founder and CEO, ZeroAvia. “As we see the large airframe manufacturers beginning to compete on technologies for hydrogen aircraft, there is a big opportunity for companies pioneering hydrogen propulsion systems. These are the inventions that will deliver truly clean, more affordable and highly efficient commercial air travel.”
What it’s all about
Like many tech-based startups, securing IP has been an integral part of ZeroAvia’s strategy, with the value of its patents being, essentially, the value of the company. Just as – if not more important to airlines like Loganair, American, and EcoJet, however, are the potential cost-savings of hydrogen compared to conventional aviation fuels like kerosene.
Importantly, these novel engines promise cost reductions for airlines. The substantially lower maintenance needs of hydrogen-electric engines will mean a decrease in maintenance and downtime for an airline’s fleet, with hydrogen fuel also projected to be significantly more cost effective than kerosene over time.
ZEROAVIA
You can read more about the new ZA600 and ZA2000 hydrogen-electric av motors here, and let us know what you think of hydrogen’s chances against traditional, kerosense-based aviation fuels in the comments.
SOURCE | IMAGES: ZeroAvia.
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You might want to hold onto your handlebars for this one – literally. The fashion-forward British electric scooter maker Bo just unveiled what could be the most extreme electric scooter the world has ever seen. Named The Turbo, this standing e-scooter isn’t just playing around with speed – it’s aiming to smash right through it and find out what’s waiting on the other side.
And it all begs the question, “How much is too much?”
When we talk about fast electric scooters, we’re usually in the neighborhood of 50 mph (80 km/h). But the Bo Turbo doubles those numbers.
With 100 mph+ (160+ km/h) top speeds and claimed acceleration that’s faster than a Tesla, this scooter seems to use a design philosophy pulled straight from the playbook of Formula One. Thus, it should come as no surprise that the team behind The Turbo includes engineers with experience from Williams F1 and the Bloodhound Land Speed Record rocket car.
The world’s fastest e-scooter?
Built on the same base chassis as the company’s sleek road-going Bo Model-M, The Turbo takes everything up a notch – actually, several notches. It features a 24,000 W dual-motor powertrain, 1,800 Wh battery, advanced traction control, and a power-to-weight ratio that reportedly beats a Bugatti Veyron.
At full power, the system is capable of propelling riders down a straightaway at three-digit speeds while standing upright. It’s absurd. It’s glorious. It’s gratuitous. It’s a dream. Or it’s a nightmare.
Bo says the machine is already delivering 85+ mph (137+ km/h) in early track testing at Goodwood Motor Circuit and is currently in development to push beyond the 100 mph barrier under Guinness World Record supervision.
And just in case you’re wondering if this is some experimental prototype cooked up in a lab – it’s not. The company is planning a limited run of built-to-order Turbo scooters, starting at a whopping $29,500. The first one is scheduled for delivery to a collector in Madrid during the 2026 Formula One race weekend.
From F1 brake ducts to street scooter DNA
Despite the headline-grabbing speed numbers, there’s a ton of serious engineering going on here. The Turbo uses ram-air intakes based on F1 brake cooling designs to keep the motors and controllers from overheating. The chassis – made from aerospace-grade aluminum and CNC-machined billet parts – is based on Bo’s proven Monocurve platform, the same structure that underpins the Bo Model-M. In fact, that might be the most impressive part of all, that the same chassis used underneath their everyday-ride-it-to-work Bo Model-M scooter is also holding together this 100 mph beast.
Bo’s team insists that despite the monster specs, The Turbo remains “surprisingly rideable.” Professional BMX rider Tre Whyte has piloted over 20 high-speed test runs, with the team now preparing to push the envelope even further.
A wild PR stunt – or something more?
It’s tempting to see The Turbo as just a headline machine (and hey, it works), but Bo says this project is about more than just chasing speed records. According to Bo CEO Oscar Morgan, “The Turbo is part of our mission to elevate these futuristic electric vehicles into the top tier of automotive performance.”
And honestly, they’ve got a point. E-scooters have exploded in popularity as low-speed urban vehicles, but the category rarely gets taken seriously in the performance world, despite the advent of racing leagues. Bo wants to change that – and they’re using motorsport technology to do it.
Electrek’s Take
Is this a practical daily rider? Absolutely not. But that’s not the point.
Bo is doing what so few e-scooter companies are willing to do – pushing boundaries, proving performance, and trying to make scooters feel exciting, not just functional. Whether The Turbo hits 100 mph or not, it’s already helped raise the bar for what electric micromobility can be. And if that means they develop safer and stable ways to build scooters along the way, then all the better.
The fact that they actually plan to sell these is a bit worrying, though the $30k pricetag means the local teens on your street aren’t going to be terrorizing the sidewalks with them. Well, not unless you’ve got an oil sheikh and his teenagers living on your street.
But hey, if you’ve got thirty grand and a need for painful death levels of speed – maybe this is your next toy.
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Environment
Chevron defeats Exxon in dispute over Guyana oil assets, clearing path for Hess acquisition
Chevron has prevailed against Exxon Mobil in a dispute over Hess Corporation’s offshore oil assets in the South American nation of Guyana, Exxon CEO Darren Woods told CNBC’s Becky Quick on Friday.
The ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce in favor of Chevron clears the way for the oil major to complete its $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation.
Chevron shares jumped about 3% in premarket trading.
“We disagree with the ICC panel’s interpretation but respect the arbitration and dispute resolution process,” Exxon said in a statement Friday.
The dispute had created significant uncertainty over whether Chevron’s acquisition of Hess would close, weighing on the oil major’s stock performance. The transaction would have failed if Exxon had prevailed.
Exxon and China National Offshore Oil Corporation had filed an arbitration case with the ICC, claiming a right of first refusal over Hess’s assets in the Stabroek Block, an oil development off the coast of Guyana.
Hess has a 30% stake in an oil patch, while Exxon leads the project with a 45% stake and CNOOC maintains 25% stake.
“We welcome Chevron to the venture and look forward to continued industry-leading performance and value creation in Guyana for all parties involved,” Exxon said.
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