Analysts are releasing a wave of delivery estimate downgrades for Tesla as the automaker’s growth story is dissipating – at least for the next few years.
Tesla’s stock has been performing poorly this year. It is one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P500.
There are several different arguable reasons for that, but the main one appears to be Tesla’s dissipating growth story and the lack of a clear path back to it in the near term.
While Elon Musk likes to say that Tesla is a conglomeration of several different companies operating in a multitude of industries, its performance is almost entirely tied to vehicle sales for now.
Tesla has been growing at a roughly 50% rate per year on that front until last year, when it started to slow down.
It has been an incredible performance, but now the automaker has warned that its growth will slow this year as it is “between two waves of growth” with nothing in its lineup that can significantly contribute to its vehicle sales.
Wall Street analysts are trying to adjust to this new situation for Tesla, but they are having issues coming up with new numbers for this year and Tesla hasn’t said much.
Companies normally give clear guidance, but Tesla is an exception. For 2024, Tesla only noted that its growth rate “may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.”
It leaves a lot of room for speculation – and Wall Street loves to speculate.
Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.
Now, analysts are trying to estimate how many vehicles Tesla will deliver in Q1 2024 with a few weeks left in the quarter and it hasn’t been looking good.
As of a few days ago, the consensus was 479,400 vehicles, which is slightly down quarter-to-quarter, but up significantly year-over-year, which would be expected as Tesla added production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Berlin in 2023 – though it did had issues in Berlin this month with the factory being shut down for a week.
However, several analysts have released lower expectations in the last few days – leading to a gloomier look at the first quarter of the year for the automaker.
Deutsche Bank now estimates 427,000 deliveries in Q1, which would be a massive disappointment for Tesla.
UBS also lowered its estimate from 466,000 to 432,000 units in Q1.
Several other firms are making similar moves over the last few days – often accompanied by downgrades on Tesla’s stock. Most serious estimates now put Tesla’s deliveries between 425,000 and 435,000 units in Q1.
Tesla is expected to release its production and delivery numbers in the first few days of April.
Electrek’s Take
This is a real problem for Tesla. As I previously wrote, I think the Cybertruck was a mistake – not because it’s not a good vehicle, but because the resources spent developing it would have been better spent on a higher volume vehicle for Tesla to shorten the time between the two growth phases.
Now, Tesla is not expected to go back to a significant level of growth until 2027 based on its own estimates:
Evercore warns? @elonmusk has already “warned” us about that. This is not a new analysis, it is Tesla’s own guidance, which is a late 2025 launch for the next-gen EV (if all goes well) and then 18 months to ramp so yes, 2027 sounds about right. pic.twitter.com/8xGWEc3w18
That’s a long time for what has been described as a “growth stock”.
Now, I honestly don’t know if these new lower estimates make sense for Q1. Tesla has seen lower production at Gigiafactory Shanghai due to the Chinese New Year and the shutdown at Gigafactory Berlin due to the arson attack.
On the demand side, Tesla is offering some significant discounts to sell everything it has, as usual.
Is that enough for a drop of 50,000 to 60,000 units quarter-to-quarter? I don’t know, maybe? What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.
America’s heartland is full of rural communities that are miles away from its major cities, both geographically and culturally – but that doesn’t mean these more sparsely populated regions can’t reap the benefits of electrification. In fact, EVs offer rural drivers even more benefits than they do to city-dwellers!
“An electric lifestyle would be a boon to our rural heartland,” wrote the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Maria Cecilia Pinto de Moura. “Rural communities across the country have their own distinguishing characteristics, but certain shared characteristics such as driving distances, the type of vehicles driven, and socio-economics are factors which contribute to this larger potential to benefit from vehicle electrification.”
Pinto de Moura went on to outline five ways rural and country drivers could benefit from going electric – but that was in 2021, and a whole lot has changed in the nearly five years since.
As such, I thought it was high time we revisit some of the reasons EVs could be a great fit for rural lifestyles, see if we could uncover any new ones, and outline the reasons we think rural drivers should rush to embrace electric vehicles in the coming calendar year.
Advertisement – scroll for more content
1. More miles means more savings
David Blenkle’s 252,000 mile Mustang Mach-E; via Ford.
When you hear that line about, “the average American drives 30 to 40 miles a day,” remember that in towns like Wellington, Ohio, or Colfax, Washington, 30 miles is a grocery run. Each way. So when people trot out that old line about range anxiety, what rural drivers actually hear isn’t reassurance. It’s dismissal — a suggestion that they drive too far for an EV to work, when nothing could be further from the truth.
A recent study by Rural Climate Partnership found that rural drivers spend an average of 44% more on fuel than city dwellers, and that the top 3.6% of rural drivers — the “supermilers” who rack up the most miles — could save over $4,000 each year by switching to electric fuel.
2. Electric trucks have arrived
Sierra AT4 EV towing a boat; via GM.
Country guys and gals love their pickups, and arguably the single biggest difference between the EV markets of 2021 and 2025 is the proliferation of electric trucks and SUVs ready to help haul, chore, camp, and tow.
Why not save your expensive horses from breathing in gas and diesel exhaust. Haul ’em with your quiet new EV, instead!
Unlike many apartment-dwelling urban drivers, most rural owners can charge right at home. More than 80% of rural households have a driveway or garage that are ideal for overnight Level 2 charging, and many already have a 240V outlet, keeping setup costs (if there even are any) to a minimum.
Plug in before bed, wake up to a full battery every morning, and do it for pennies on the dollar, especially with off-peak rates.
4. Lifesaving battery power
F-150 Lightning plugged in; via Ford.
If disaster strikes and you lose power, many electric trucks have the ability to power your home and appliances with the energy stored in their massive batteries – either from the truck itself, or through a V2X home battery system. If you live in an area prone to extreme weather events, the ability to keep medication refrigerated can be a literal life-saver!
As such, getting behind the wheel of an ultra-powerful, ultra smooth-running electric pickup truck from your favorite brand is easier than ever.
6. Energy independence and American jobs
GM Defense electric military vehicle; via GM.
At the risk of sounding like a paranoid red hat, rural Americans are proud Americans – just like rural Canadians are proud Canadians. Unfortunately, every gallon of gas burned in their pickups and SUVs came from oil drilled, refined, and traded on global markets — and that means supporting the oil business and economies of nations whose values don’t always align with, or maybe are even outright hostile to theirs.
Switching to an EV can help more of that money right here at home, especially as more and better battery recycling efforts come online and newer battery and anode/cathode chemistries are developed, reducing dependence on rare Earth metals, cobalt, and even lithium.
There are obviously more reasons to go electric than these, from lower cost of ownership to saving the planet to absolutely killer burnouts that would make the one-tire-fire era IROC Camaros hang their 305s in shame – but I think those kind of fade into the background as being appealing to all, instead of being especially appealing to rural drivers.
That said, it’s been a long time since I was back in Ohio, so maybe I’ve forgotten what it’s like. You guys are smart, head on down to the comments and let me know what I missed!
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.
Honda’s electric SUV is on a roll. The Prologue was the third best-selling EV in the US in August, trailing only the Tesla Model Y and Model 3. Even with the federal EV tax credit now expired, Honda is still offering nearly $17,000 off the Prologue.
Honda Prologue registrations surge with huge incentives
As the $7,500 credit expired at the end of September, automakers rolled out steep discounts, many topping five figures with combined incentives.
The Honda Prologue has been one of the most discounted EVs over the past year or so. Last month, buyers could score up to over $20,000 in combined savings, including a $7,500 credit, $9,500 in financing bonuses, trade-in offers, and 0% interest for six years.
According to the latest registration data from S&P Global Mobility (via Automotive News), the incentives helped propel the Honda Prologue to become the third most popular EV in August.
Advertisement – scroll for more content
A total of 138,457 EVs were registered in the US in August, up 24% from a year ago. Honda Prologue registrations surged 81% to 9,005 vehicles, the data showed.
2025 Honda Prologue Elite (Source: Honda)
Honda’s electric SUV had more registrations than the Chevy Equinox EV in August, and it’s based on the same GM Ultium platform. However, the Equinox is still outselling the Prologue through September.
Since some automakers don’t report monthly or US sales numbers, the S&P Global Mobility data offers a snapshot of sales performance.
2025 Prologue Elite (Source: Honda)
The Prologue was yet again one of the most discounted models, with incentives of $12,704 in August, according to Motor Intelligence. Last August, Prologue incentives were just $5,813. Honda’s gas-powered CR-V had just $2,016 in incentives in August.
The interior of the 2025 Honda Prologue Elite (Source: Honda)
Although the $7,500 credit expired on September 30, Honda is still offering generous incentives for Prologue buyers and lessees.
The 2025 Honda Prologue is available with up to $16,550 in lease cash in most states. The offer includes $5,000 in lease bonus cash, $8,250 in Honda lease cash, and a $3,3300 loyalty or conquest bonus. Honda is offering the deal until November 11. Or, you can opt for 0% APR financing for up to 60 months.
2025 Honda Prologue trim
Starting Price*
EPA Range (miles)
EX (FWD)
$47,400
308
EX (AWD)
$50,400
294
Touring (FWD)
$51.700
308
Touring (AWD)
$54,700
294
Elite (AWD)
$57,900
283
2025 Honda Prologue prices and range by trim (*Does not include $1,450 D&H fee)
Although the Acura ZDX will not return for a 2026 model year, Honda is planning to launch the 2026 Prologue. We have yet to learn prices, but we could see it priced slightly lower due to the loss of the $7,500 EV credit.
Hyundai announced earlier this month it’s reducing 2026 IONIQ 5 prices by up to nearly $10,000 on some trims. The 2026 Hyundai IONIQ 5 now starts at under $35,000. Hyundai is offering leases as low as $289 per month right now. Will Honda match it?
Kia has a new idea. So you don’t miss the smell of gasoline too much when you trade in for its new EV, Kia is giving away free gas-scented air fresheners.
Kia offers gas-scented car fresheners for EV4 buyers
It’s time to trade that new car scented tree dangling from your rearview mirror for a jerry can that smells like… gasoline?
Astara Auto Finland, which imports Kia’s vehicles into Finland, is giving away free gasoline-scented car fresheners for those buying the new EV4.
Although it may seem like Kia’s poking fun at the gas guzzlers, it’s actually partly designed to ease your transition to an EV.
Advertisement – scroll for more content
“Giving up the combustion engine can feel like a huge step, just like giving up anything else that is familiar. We wanted to add a touch of nostalgic fun to the transition with a gas-scented car freshener,” Klaus Pohjala, commercial director at Astara Auto Finland, said.
The scent was created by Finland’s sole perfumier, Max Perttula, who has developed fragrances for other premium brands.
Kia starts EV4 hatchback production in Europe, its first EV built in Europe (Source: Kia UK)
According to Pertulla, he mostly used scents found in men’s fragrances, but added a bit of Jasmine to top things off. “It may sound wild that it’s jasmine of all things that contains compounds with a fragrance that creates associations with gasoline,” Pertulla said, but it works.
The fragrance came to life after metalizing and sanding it with amber compounds, birch tar, and galbanum, he explained.
The Kia EV4 hatchback at IAA Mobility 2025 in Munich (Source: Kia)
Of course, it’s a bit of a “cheeky campaign,” Pertulla said, but Kia aims to add a little fun for new EV drivers. The latest campaign comes after Kia’s importer ran a controversial front-page ad last year mocking traditional luxury automakers, claiming EVs have leveled the playing field.
The EV4 is rolling out in Europe, in both hatchback and sedan variants. Early next year, Kia will launch the sedan version in the US.
Do you miss the smell of gas? After driving an EV for years, I still think that it’s one of the best parts of owning one. Drop us a comment below and let us know what you think.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.