Analysts are releasing a wave of delivery estimate downgrades for Tesla as the automaker’s growth story is dissipating – at least for the next few years.
Tesla’s stock has been performing poorly this year. It is one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P500.
There are several different arguable reasons for that, but the main one appears to be Tesla’s dissipating growth story and the lack of a clear path back to it in the near term.
While Elon Musk likes to say that Tesla is a conglomeration of several different companies operating in a multitude of industries, its performance is almost entirely tied to vehicle sales for now.
Tesla has been growing at a roughly 50% rate per year on that front until last year, when it started to slow down.
It has been an incredible performance, but now the automaker has warned that its growth will slow this year as it is “between two waves of growth” with nothing in its lineup that can significantly contribute to its vehicle sales.
Wall Street analysts are trying to adjust to this new situation for Tesla, but they are having issues coming up with new numbers for this year and Tesla hasn’t said much.
Companies normally give clear guidance, but Tesla is an exception. For 2024, Tesla only noted that its growth rate “may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.”
It leaves a lot of room for speculation – and Wall Street loves to speculate.
Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.
Now, analysts are trying to estimate how many vehicles Tesla will deliver in Q1 2024 with a few weeks left in the quarter and it hasn’t been looking good.
As of a few days ago, the consensus was 479,400 vehicles, which is slightly down quarter-to-quarter, but up significantly year-over-year, which would be expected as Tesla added production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Berlin in 2023 – though it did had issues in Berlin this month with the factory being shut down for a week.
However, several analysts have released lower expectations in the last few days – leading to a gloomier look at the first quarter of the year for the automaker.
Deutsche Bank now estimates 427,000 deliveries in Q1, which would be a massive disappointment for Tesla.
UBS also lowered its estimate from 466,000 to 432,000 units in Q1.
Several other firms are making similar moves over the last few days – often accompanied by downgrades on Tesla’s stock. Most serious estimates now put Tesla’s deliveries between 425,000 and 435,000 units in Q1.
Tesla is expected to release its production and delivery numbers in the first few days of April.
Electrek’s Take
This is a real problem for Tesla. As I previously wrote, I think the Cybertruck was a mistake – not because it’s not a good vehicle, but because the resources spent developing it would have been better spent on a higher volume vehicle for Tesla to shorten the time between the two growth phases.
Now, Tesla is not expected to go back to a significant level of growth until 2027 based on its own estimates:
Evercore warns? @elonmusk has already “warned” us about that. This is not a new analysis, it is Tesla’s own guidance, which is a late 2025 launch for the next-gen EV (if all goes well) and then 18 months to ramp so yes, 2027 sounds about right. pic.twitter.com/8xGWEc3w18
That’s a long time for what has been described as a “growth stock”.
Now, I honestly don’t know if these new lower estimates make sense for Q1. Tesla has seen lower production at Gigiafactory Shanghai due to the Chinese New Year and the shutdown at Gigafactory Berlin due to the arson attack.
On the demand side, Tesla is offering some significant discounts to sell everything it has, as usual.
Is that enough for a drop of 50,000 to 60,000 units quarter-to-quarter? I don’t know, maybe? What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
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From the ashes of Elon Musk’s decision to fire the whole Supercharger team last year, a new company has risen: Hubber, which will take its founders’ expertise at setting up Tesla Superchargers and apply that to addressing the lack of high-speed urban charging for taxis and other commercial vehicles.
In the immediate aftermath of this decision, a lot of questions were asked around the industry – and a lot of companies started snatching up talent from the best EV charging team in the world.
Or, alternately, some of that talent went to form their own companies. That’s the case for Harry Fox, Connor Selwood and Hugh Leckie, who met at Tesla and together oversaw the rollout of 100 Supercharger sites with 1,200 total chargers across the UK & Ireland. And after the shakeup of the Supercharger team, they set off to charge a new path of their own.
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The three formed Hubber, which pitches itself as a new type of EV charging company, focused on solving “the urban charging gap.”
Hubber describes itself as “the UK’s leading specialist in urban high-powered EV charging, addressing one of the most urgent constraints in the energy transition: the shortage of fast, reliable charging in major cities.” It “acquires and develops prime urban sites into large-scale charging hubs, combining deep grid-connection know-how with a proven ability to deliver complex infrastructure at speed”.
A large amount of the traffic in UK cities is taken up by taxis and last-mile, and these vehicles tend to see higher utilization than commuter cars, so they need to charge more often. Hubber says that taxis charge five times as often as a private vehicle, which means they’ll need more access to fast EV charging.
This is further exacerbated in urban environments, where EVs might not park in a place they can charge. Lots of urban homes don’t have garages, and while there are street EV chargers available in London, they’re not everywhere yet. So convenient fast charging is essential.
And the needs for commercial drivers are different than those of other commuters. While nicely-appointed charging plazas (like Rove’s “full service” EV charger in Santa Ana, CA) are great for the average consumer, commercial EV drivers put more of a premium on speed and affordability, and don’t mind if a site is a little further off of a main thoroughfare, or not as close to food or shopping as other drivers might want.
So Hubber is looking at sites that other developers might pass over – like old warehouses or gas stations – and figuring out how to turn them into an ideal site for high-throughput charging.
With its cofounders’ experience at Tesla, Hubber will buy sites, transform them into a charger-ready location, and essentially provide the dream location that they would have liked to see during the site selection processes they went through in their previous jobs.
The charging hubs could still have some amenities, like restrooms and vending machines, of the type that would be useful for taxi or ride-hailing drivers to grab during a quick stop. But the main focus would be on getting people in and out and back on the road.
Here’s a rendering of what a potential site might look like. In this sample location, there would be room for light-duty vehicles up front, with an area for larger last-mile delivery vehicles with larger charging bays. A small covered area could provide restrooms and vending, and another portion of the site could be dedicated to transformers, batteries and the like.
Hubber is also thinking ahead to a possible autonomous future, where driverless ride-hailing vehicles like those from Waymo could have a place to charge. Although given that there aren’t currently great solutions for autonomous charging, an attendant might have to be involved for the foreseeable future.
The company would also like to expand beyond the UK and Ireland, but they’re sticking to home base for the time being. After all, things are just getting off the ground – but the £60 million (~$81m) investment that Hubber just secured is certainly a big boost towards getting the project moving.
Speaking of projects, Hubber’s first facility is opening this coming week, on August 20th. The site is at Forest Hill in South London, near Forest Hill Station. It will have 12 EV charging bays, with 3 150kW and 3 300kW dual-head chargers. The site will be operated by RAW charging, which will offer free fast charging for its first week of operation.
The silver lining, at least for the rest of the industry, is that it allowed this talent to be distributed around to other companies. This isn’t beneficial for Tesla and did cause chaos which has likely affected the rollout of NACS, slowed EV charging site development in the US, and so on, but it has been beneficial for other companies who managed to snatch up talent.
Or, for companies like Hubber, which were formed by that talent.
It’s an interesting idea, and I like the angle of focusing on taxis in order to increase utilization of the site. EV charging is potentially an interesting business long term, but currently a lot of chargers see low usage because it’s so easy for most of the people who own EVs to charge at home.
But we’re going to have to move beyond the market of people who can easily charge in a garage attached to a single family home, especially in cities. Getting an easy way for the cars that get used the most in a city to charge is a really important move, and we’re looking forward to seeing how Hubber can help with this. And having a leadership team consisting of people who formerly worked at the best charging team in the industry isn’t a bad start.
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Indian ag and automaker Mahindra has launched a limited-run Batman Edition of its BE 6 Electric Origin SUV, calling it, “a production car that brings to life a rare fusion of cinematic heritage and modern luxury, inspired by Christopher Nolan’s critically acclaimed The Dark Knight Trilogy from Warner Bros. Pictures.”
And, you guys – the new Mahindra BE 6 is. So. Serious.
Someone at Mahindra is very taken with American culture it seems. After launching the Willys MB Jeep-inspired Mahindra Roxor a few years ago, the company followed it up by building a credible line of EVs co-developed with VW. Now, they’re building a limited edition of one of those EVs inspired by another American cultural icon.
“Batman is more than a pop-culture icon — he represents innovation, resilience, and an unyielding drive to push boundaries,” says Vikram Sharma, Senior Vice President, Warner Bros. Discovery Global Consumer Products, APAC. “This collaboration brings that spirit to the road in a bold, electric way. With this limited-edition range, fans in India can now experience the thrill of Batman every time they drive. It’s a collector’s statement on wheels.”
Pinstripe graphic and The Dark Knight Trilogy Bat Emblem across the passenger dashboard panel
Race car inspired open straps with Batman Edition Branding Batman Edition welcome animation on the infotainment display
Custom Batman inspired exterior engine sounds
Despite all the Batman branding, the end result is almost tasteful. I could do without the custom Batman decal on the front quarter panels, but the rest of the mods are far less offensive. I even like the little “Bat Signal” puddle lights on the wing mirrors.
Mahindra Batman BE 6
As a car, the special edition Batman Mahindra is based on the top-shelf version of the BE 6, fitted with a 79 kWh battery good for 550 km (about 340 miles) of range according to its WLTP rating. That battery sends power to a rear-mounted 282 hp (210 kW / 286 PS) electric motor generating and 380 Nm (about 280 lb-ft) of torque that sends power to the rear wheels.
The BE6 also features a modern Level 2 ADAS tech and screens everywhere, including in the steering wheel hub – which seems like it might get particularly nasty in an airbag deployment (but no one asked me).
Pricing starts at ₹27.79 lakh (a little under $27,500, as I type this), and production will be limited to just 300 units. Order books are set to open 23AUG.
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Electric bike and scooter safety is now part of the curriculum in some schools – and surprisingly, it’s happening in Florida.
Yes, Florida. The state that’s better known for keeping education out of schools, banning everything from books to the word “gay.” But now, a Central Florida nonprofit is stepping in to make sure students are at least learning how to ride responsibly.
The group Best Foot Forward for Pedestrian Safety has partnered with local police departments and Orange County Public Schools to bring e-bike and e-scooter safety programs directly into middle schools and high schools. The initiative is focused on addressing the growing number of crashes and injuries involving students riding electric two-wheelers.
The safety course covers basics like wearing helmets, obeying traffic laws, and making yourself visible to drivers — skills that are important for the many young riders who are increasingly taking to electric bikes as a form of independent transportation around their cities and neighborhoods. One of the main topics of the program is said to be speed management. The program addresses the importance of keeping speeds reasonable and the impacts of faster riding.
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Like much of the US, Florida has seen a surge in e-bike and e-scooter popularity among kids and teens, especially in suburban and coastal areas. While many embrace them as a fun and fast way to get around, the sudden rise has also come with a worrying spike in injuries and deaths, prompting calls for improvements in both infrastructure and education.
With e-bike usage exploding across the US, more schools and communities are exploring steps to increase rider education. It’s a sign that America’s transportation habits are changing – and our education systems are beginning to catch up.
Electrek’s Take
I think programs like this are great because they teach kids things that they’d otherwise have to learn through trial and error. We don’t just hand cars to sixteen-year-olds and say, “figure it out.” So it follows that some form of organized rider education would be important as more youths take to e-bikes than ever before.
In cycling-intensive cities in Europe, all schools teach kids to ride bikes, often giving the kids some form of cute little cycling diploma to demonstrate that they’ve passed the course and can safely ride a bike.
But at the same time, this makes me wonder if we’re still missing the point. Responding to an increase in e-bike rider deaths with lessons about bicycle speed management is a bit like responding to mass shootings by lecturing innocent passersby about why they shouldn’t run into bullets.
Educating riders is always great and I’ll always support it. But in parallel, perhaps we should also be addressing the root cause of all of these tragics deaths. At the end of the day, most electric bike-related deaths aren’t a result of an e-bike rider doing too much fast riding; they’re a result of a car driver doing too much running over a cyclist.