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Analysts are releasing a wave of delivery estimate downgrades for Tesla as the automaker’s growth story is dissipating – at least for the next few years.

Tesla’s stock has been performing poorly this year. It is one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P500.

There are several different arguable reasons for that, but the main one appears to be Tesla’s dissipating growth story and the lack of a clear path back to it in the near term.

While Elon Musk likes to say that Tesla is a conglomeration of several different companies operating in a multitude of industries, its performance is almost entirely tied to vehicle sales for now.

Tesla has been growing at a roughly 50% rate per year on that front until last year, when it started to slow down.

It has been an incredible performance, but now the automaker has warned that its growth will slow this year as it is “between two waves of growth” with nothing in its lineup that can significantly contribute to its vehicle sales.

Wall Street analysts are trying to adjust to this new situation for Tesla, but they are having issues coming up with new numbers for this year and Tesla hasn’t said much.

Companies normally give clear guidance, but Tesla is an exception. For 2024, Tesla only noted that its growth rate “may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.”

It leaves a lot of room for speculation – and Wall Street loves to speculate.

Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.

Now, analysts are trying to estimate how many vehicles Tesla will deliver in Q1 2024 with a few weeks left in the quarter and it hasn’t been looking good.

As of a few days ago, the consensus was 479,400 vehicles, which is slightly down quarter-to-quarter, but up significantly year-over-year, which would be expected as Tesla added production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Berlin in 2023 – though it did had issues in Berlin this month with the factory being shut down for a week.

However, several analysts have released lower expectations in the last few days – leading to a gloomier look at the first quarter of the year for the automaker.

Deutsche Bank now estimates 427,000 deliveries in Q1, which would be a massive disappointment for Tesla.

UBS also lowered its estimate from 466,000 to 432,000 units in Q1.

Several other firms are making similar moves over the last few days – often accompanied by downgrades on Tesla’s stock. Most serious estimates now put Tesla’s deliveries between 425,000 and 435,000 units in Q1.

Tesla is expected to release its production and delivery numbers in the first few days of April.

Electrek’s Take

This is a real problem for Tesla. As I previously wrote, I think the Cybertruck was a mistake – not because it’s not a good vehicle, but because the resources spent developing it would have been better spent on a higher volume vehicle for Tesla to shorten the time between the two growth phases.

Now, Tesla is not expected to go back to a significant level of growth until 2027 based on its own estimates:

That’s a long time for what has been described as a “growth stock”.

Now, I honestly don’t know if these new lower estimates make sense for Q1. Tesla has seen lower production at Gigiafactory Shanghai due to the Chinese New Year and the shutdown at Gigafactory Berlin due to the arson attack.

On the demand side, Tesla is offering some significant discounts to sell everything it has, as usual.

Is that enough for a drop of 50,000 to 60,000 units quarter-to-quarter? I don’t know, maybe? What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.

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BYD’s $18,000 electric kei car revealed up close with new details

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BYD's ,000 electric kei car revealed up close with new details

It’s official. BYD is launching its first kei car. The new electric car is BYD’s smallest EV yet, and it’s expected to arrive next year with a starting price under $18,000. After it was spotted testing again, we are learning a little more about what to expect.

BYD’s smallest EV is coming in 2026

Kei cars, or K-Cars, as they are often called, are one of the most popular types of vehicles in Japan. They are the smallest street-legal passenger vehicles you can buy in the country.

To be classified as a kei car, the vehicle must be less than 3.4 m (134″) long, 1.48 m (58″) wide, and 2 m (79″) tall.

BYD’s smallest EV, and top-selling, is currently the Seagull (sold as the Dolphin Surf and Mini overseas), measuring 3,780 mm in length (148.8″).

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We caught a glimpse of the new electric Kei car for the first time in May after it was spotted testing on public roads. Like many kei cars, including the Honda N-Box, Japan’s top-selling vehicle, BYD’s tiny EV has that quirky, upright, boxy design.

BYD's-smallest-EV-spotted
BYD’s kei car, or mini EV, in camouflage (Source: Sina/ IT Home)

After being recently spotted parked at a test facility, new spy photos provide a closer look, including a sneak peek of the interior.

The new images, posted by ThinkerCar, show essentially the same kei car we saw in May. It’s a right-hand-drive vehicle, suggesting it will launch in Japan, the UK, parts of Southeast Asia, and possibly other regions.

For the first time, the interior is shown. Like BYD’s other vehicles, there’s a large floating infotainment screen at the center.

The electric car is expected to feature a 20 kWh battery, providing a WLTP range of 180 km (112 miles). It will also support DC charging speeds of up to 100 kW.

BYD’s Dolphin Surf (Seagull EV) is available with two battery packs: 30 kWh and 43.2 kWh, offering WLTP ranges of 137 miles and 189 miles, respectively.

By using LFP batteries from its battery unit, FinDreams, BYD could have the upper hand with costs. The Kei car is expected to launch in Japan in the second half of 2026 with a starting price of 2.5 million yen, or under $18,000. In comparison, the Nissan Sakura, Japan’s top-selling electric vehicle, starts at 2.59 million yen.

BYD's-smallest-EV
BYD Dolphin (left) and Atto 3 (right) at the 2024 Tokyo Spring Festival (Source BYD Japan)

Earlier this year, Nikkei reported that Japanese automakers are already preparing for its arrival. A Suzuki dealer explained that “Young people do not have a negative view of BYD. It would be a huge threat if the company launches cheap models in Japan.”

Can BYD’s smallest EV find a foothold in Japan? Domestic brands like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan have long dominated the market. Check back soon for the latest updates.

Source: TheDriven, ThinkerCar

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Tesla launches a long list of new discounts and incentives in the US

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Tesla launches a long list of new discounts and incentives in the US

Tesla has launched a long list of new discounts and incentives for its electric vehicles in the US as it seeks to capitalize on what will likely be its last strong quarter in its best market.

Since the beginning of the year, we have been reporting on how Tesla’s sales are declining in its largest markets, including Europe and China, with the US being the notable exception.

With the federal tax credit for electric vehicles set to expire by the end of the quarter, the US is also expected to become a challenging market for Tesla and electric vehicles in general.

Many electric automakers are trying to take advantage of the demand being pulled forward into Q3 due to the imminent end of the tax credit.

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Tesla has introduced several new incentives that can be combined with one another. Here’s the full list:

All New Tesla Vehicles

  • $7,500 Lease Incentive (delivery by Sept 30)
  • $1,000 Off for American Heroes (military, first responders, teachers, students)
  • Free 1-Month Full Self-Driving (Supervised) Trial
  • Free Full Self-Driving (Supervised) Transfer from your current Tesla
  • Premium Connectivity Trial
    • 30 days for Model 3 and Y
    • 1 year for Model S, X, and Cybertruck

Model Y

  • $7,500 Lease Incentive
  • One Free Upgrade on select inventory (pre-discounted)
  • $7,500 Federal Tax Credit at Point of Sale (cash/finance only)
  • Lease from $349/mo (24-month) or $399/mo (36-month) with $3,000 down
  • APR Financing: 3.49% up to 60 months
  • 18 Months Free Supercharging (cash purchases only)

Model 3

  • $7,500 Lease Incentive
  • One Free Upgrade on select inventory (pre-discounted)
  • $7,500 Federal Tax Credit at Point of Sale (cash/finance only)
  • Lease from $299/mo (24-month) or $349/mo (36-month) with $3,000 down
  • 0% APR Financing with FSD (Supervised), 2.49% without

Model X

  • $7,500 Federal Tax Credit at Point of Sale
  • One Free Upgrade with FSD (Supervised)
  • Premium Connectivity Trial (1 year)

Model S

  • One Free Upgrade with FSD (Supervised)
  • Premium Connectivity Trial (1 year)

Cybertruck

  • $7,500 Federal Tax Credit at Point of Sale
  • 0% APR Financing with FSD (Supervised)
  • Free 20″ Cyber Wheel Upgrade ($3,500 value) on lease orders
  • Premium Connectivity Trial (1 year)

Electrek’s Take

It looks like Tesla is now relying less on 0% APR, likely due to the fact that now interest on car payments is deductible up to $10,000.

Though Tesla is still offering 0% financing on the Cybertruck for obvious reasons: it can’t sell them.

That said, it is still offering financing discounts for the Model 3 and Model Y, albeit at a lower rate than before the change.

18 months of free Supercharging on Model Y is also a significant discount, but that’s if you don’t take the financing deal.

It looks like Tesla is going all-out to try to secure as many buyers in Q3 as possible.

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Volvo is ‘definitely not’ leaving the US, but it’s dropping these vehicles from its lineup

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Volvo is 'definitely not' leaving the US, but it's dropping these vehicles from its lineup

Volvo confirmed it will continue selling vehicles in the US, but its lineup will look a little different. With plans to cut several models, Volvo will offer only about half of the cars it currently sells globally.

Volvo adjusts US lineup, cutting several vehicles

Days after Volvo announced it would begin production of the XC60 in the US, its best-selling vehicle, we are learning the move is part of a major shakeup.

Volvo has already begun cutting sedans and station wagons from its US lineup. The Swedish luxury brand confirmed plans with Reuters on Thursday, citing slowing demand amid the Trump administration’s new auto tariffs.

Outside of the V60, Volvo will only offer SUVs in the US, or about half of the 13 vehicles in sells globally. Production of the S60 ended at its South Carolina facility last year.

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Volvo also told Reuters that the European-spec EX40 was also temporarily paused, but it would be available “shortly.” The company didn’t comment on why.

Meanwhile, its new electric vehicles, including the EX30 and three-row EX90, are failing to live up to the hype. Both were expected to see strong US demand, but Volvo is one of the most exposed to Trump’s tariffs.

Volvo-vehicles-US
EX30 production at Volvo’s Ghent plant (Source: Volvo)

Although the EX90 is built in South Carolina, many parts still come from Europe, which is now subject to a 25% tariff.

The EX30, which was expected to arrive at around $35,000, is only available in the dual-motor variant, priced from $46,195.

Volvo-vehicles-US
Volvo EX90 (Source: Volvo)

During an interview on CNBC’s Europe Early Edition, Volvo’s CEO Håkan Samuelsson said the company would “definitely not” leave the US market altogether.

“What we are doing is first of all, we want to fill our factory we have in South Carolina. It should be the strategic asset it was intended to be. So, we have to utilize it more,” Samuelsson explained.

Volvo-XC60
Volvo XC60 (Source: Volvo)

By bringing XC60 production to the facility, Volvo said it would “soon now produce something for everyone in its US plant.”

The EX60 has been Volvo’s best-selling model globally for years and is the most popular in the US. So far this year, the XC60 accounts for over a third of Volvo’s total sales. It’s also the fourth-best-selling luxury plug-in hybrid in America.

Volvo is set to begin building XC60 models in South Carolina in late 2026. It will also continue building the EX90 “for customers who want more space or are looking to go fully electric.”

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