Tesla (TSLA) delivery estimates are plunging as growth story dissipates
Analysts are releasing a wave of delivery estimate downgrades for Tesla as the automaker’s growth story is dissipating – at least for the next few years.
Tesla’s stock has been performing poorly this year. It is one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P500.
There are several different arguable reasons for that, but the main one appears to be Tesla’s dissipating growth story and the lack of a clear path back to it in the near term.
While Elon Musk likes to say that Tesla is a conglomeration of several different companies operating in a multitude of industries, its performance is almost entirely tied to vehicle sales for now.
Tesla has been growing at a roughly 50% rate per year on that front until last year, when it started to slow down.
It has been an incredible performance, but now the automaker has warned that its growth will slow this year as it is “between two waves of growth” with nothing in its lineup that can significantly contribute to its vehicle sales.
Wall Street analysts are trying to adjust to this new situation for Tesla, but they are having issues coming up with new numbers for this year and Tesla hasn’t said much.
Companies normally give clear guidance, but Tesla is an exception. For 2024, Tesla only noted that its growth rate “may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.”
It leaves a lot of room for speculation – and Wall Street loves to speculate.
Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.
Now, analysts are trying to estimate how many vehicles Tesla will deliver in Q1 2024 with a few weeks left in the quarter and it hasn’t been looking good.
As of a few days ago, the consensus was 479,400 vehicles, which is slightly down quarter-to-quarter, but up significantly year-over-year, which would be expected as Tesla added production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Berlin in 2023 – though it did had issues in Berlin this month with the factory being shut down for a week.
However, several analysts have released lower expectations in the last few days – leading to a gloomier look at the first quarter of the year for the automaker.
Deutsche Bank now estimates 427,000 deliveries in Q1, which would be a massive disappointment for Tesla.
UBS also lowered its estimate from 466,000 to 432,000 units in Q1.
Several other firms are making similar moves over the last few days – often accompanied by downgrades on Tesla’s stock. Most serious estimates now put Tesla’s deliveries between 425,000 and 435,000 units in Q1.
Tesla is expected to release its production and delivery numbers in the first few days of April.
Electrek’s Take
This is a real problem for Tesla. As I previously wrote, I think the Cybertruck was a mistake – not because it’s not a good vehicle, but because the resources spent developing it would have been better spent on a higher volume vehicle for Tesla to shorten the time between the two growth phases.
Now, Tesla is not expected to go back to a significant level of growth until 2027 based on its own estimates:
That’s a long time for what has been described as a “growth stock”.
Now, I honestly don’t know if these new lower estimates make sense for Q1. Tesla has seen lower production at Gigiafactory Shanghai due to the Chinese New Year and the shutdown at Gigafactory Berlin due to the arson attack.
On the demand side, Tesla is offering some significant discounts to sell everything it has, as usual.
Is that enough for a drop of 50,000 to 60,000 units quarter-to-quarter? I don’t know, maybe? What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
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Mammoth Solar, a 1.3 gigawatt (GW) solar farm in northern Indiana, is now powering into its biggest construction phase yet, cementing its place as one of the largest solar projects in the US.
The solar farm is set to increase Indiana’s solar capacity by more than 20% once it’s fully online. And with construction ramping up this month, developer Doral Renewables has given Bechtel Full Notice to Proceed on the design, engineering, and construction of three major phases of the project: Mammoth South, Mammoth Central I, and Mammoth Central II. Together, these phases will generate 900 MW of clean energy.
That’s enough electricity to power around 200,000 homes with clean energy, helping Indiana shift away from fossil fuels while boosting the local economy.
Construction is already underway, and over the next two years, Bechtel will install around 2 million solar panels, with about half of them made in the US. The company is also handling all engineering, procurement, and construction work, using its digital project management tools and autonomous tech to keep everything on track.
At the peak of the buildout, Mammoth Solar is expected to create over 1,200 jobs, with at least 15% of those set aside for apprenticeships.
Bechtel says its success will hinge on strong collaboration with local trades and vendors. The company is working closely with craft professionals and is committed to being a reliable community partner throughout construction.
Once the solar farm is complete in 2027, Doral Renewables plans to roll out agrivoltaics across the site. That means livestock grazing and crop cultivation will happen right alongside energy production, giving farmers in the area a way to keep working their land while supporting clean energy development.
Read more: Solar adds more new capacity to the US grid in 2024 than any energy source in 20 years
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BYD is about to launch an even smaller EV, but this one’s a little different. It’s BYD’s first kei car. You know, those tiny vehicles that dominate Japan’s city streets? BYD’s mini EV was just spotted out in public, giving us our first real look at the upcoming kei car.
BYD’s first mini EV was spotted in public
Last week, rumors surfaced that BYD was developing its first kei car, which would compete with top-selling models from Nissan, Honda, Mitsubishi, and other Japanese brands.
Kei cars, or “K-Car,” as they are sometimes called, are a class of ultra-compact vehicles that cannot be longer than 3.4 meters (134″). To put that into perspective, BYD’s smallest EV currently, the Seagull (called the Dolphin Mini overseas), is 3,780 mm (148.8″) long.
The mini vehicles are ideal in Japan because they are so small, making it easy to get around tight city streets. They are also more affordable and efficient than larger vehicles.
BYD’s mini EV was spotted for the first time during a road test this week by IT Home (via CarNewsChina), revealing a familiar look. It has that boxy, compact look of a typical kei car with sliding side doors.
According to reports, BYD is developing a new platform for the model. It will reportedly include a 20 kWh battery, good for 180 km (112 miles) WLTC range. By using its in-house Blade LFP batteries, BYD is expected to have a cost advantage.
BYD’s upcoming mini EV is expected to start at around 2.5 million yen, or about $18,000. That’s about the same as the Nissan Sakura (2.59 million yen), Japan’s best-selling EV last year.
既出ですがBYDの日本向けEV軽自動車と言われているフロントとリアからのスパイショット。 pic.twitter.com/CcV5pihpWc
— 主夫まぬか (@syufumanuka) May 16, 2025
Last year, around 1.55 million kei cars were sold in Japan, accounting for roughly 40% of new vehicle sales. Honda’s N-Box was the top-selling kei car (EV or gas) for the third straight year.
As Nikkei reported, some are already calling BYD’s electric kei car “a huge threat.” A Suzuki dealer said, “Young people do not have a negative view of BYD. It would be a huge threat if the company launches cheap models in Japan.”
BYD already sells several electric cars in Japan, including the Atto 3 SUV, Dolphin, and Seal. Last month, the company launched the new Sealion 7 midsize electric SUV, starting at 4.95 million yen ($34,500).
Although Japan isn’t really an EV hot spot, with sales falling 33% in 2024 to just under 60,000 units, BYD sees an opportunity.
By making virtually every car component in-house, including batteries, BYD can offer EVs at such low prices while still making a profit. BYD’s cheapest and best-selling electric car, the Seagull, starts at under $10,000 (69,800 yuan) in China.
With new smart driving and charging tech rolling out, BYD’s electric cars are getting smarter and even more efficient.
Can BYD’s mini EV compete with Japanese brands? At the right price, it may have a chance. Check back soon for more on the upcoming kei car. We’ll keep you up to date with the latest.
Source: Sina, CarNewsChina
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Ford’s electric pickup truck is back at the top. The F-150 Lightning is once again the best-selling electric pickup in the US after overtaking the Tesla Cybertruck in the first quarter.
Ford’s F-150 Lightning is the best-selling electric pickup
After launching in 2023, Tesla’s Cybertruck quickly outpaced the Lightning to become America’s top-selling EV pickup last year.
Since Tesla doesn’t break down regional sales, registration data gives us our best estimate. The latest registration data from S&P Global Mobility (via Automotive News) shows that the F-150 Lightning retook the title in March and the first quarter of 2025.
Ford’s electric pickup notched 2,598 registrations in March, topping the Tesla Cybertruck with 2,170. In the first quarter, the F-150 Lightning remained ahead with 7,913 registrations, compared to the Cybertruck’s 7,126.
Although the Cybertruck was the fifth top-selling EV in the US last year, it didn’t even crack the top ten in March. It placed ninth through the first three months of 2025, behind the Volkswagen ID.4.
While Tesla and Ford remained the leaders in the electric pickup market, several new models are gaining momentum. According to the most recent numbers from Cox Automotive, GM sold 2,383 Chevy Silverado EVs and 1,249 GMC Sierra EV models in Q1. Meanwhile, Rivian sold 1,727 R1Ts during the quarter.
Earlier today, Electrek reported that new models, including the Honda Prologue and Chevy Blazer EV, helped drive EV registrations up 20% in the US in March.
Although the Lightning reclaimed the crown from Tesla, Ford’s electric pickup isn’t exactly flying off the lot. Ford reported Lightning sales fell 16% to just 1,740 units in April. Through April 2025, Ford has sold 8,927 electric trucks, down 9% from the 9,833 it handed over last year.
Electrek’s Take
To be fair, Tesla is still ahead by a wide margin in the US. The S&P numbers show Tesla had over 51,000 registrations in March, up 1% after two months of lower YOY growth.
GM’s Chevy surpassed Ford to become the second-best-selling EV brand with nearly 8,500 registrations, an increase of 274% from last year. Ford dropped to third with 7,361 registrations.
Although it’s just one quarter, it’s starting to show how Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s political antics are likely impacting sales. After the Cybertruck’s initial hype, it appears many buyers are opting for traditional pickups, like the F-150 Lighting.
Meanwhile, Ram is delaying its first electric pickup, the 1500 REV, again. Ram is pushing production back until summer 2027, saying it’s “extending the quality validation period.” The plug-in hybrid (PHEV) Ramcharger will also be delayed until the first quarter of 2026.
After pulling the Ramcharger ahead of the fully electric version last year, Stellantis blamed weak demand for EV pickups in the US.
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