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“If you randomly follow the algorithm, you probably would consume less radical content using YouTube as you typically do!”

So says Manoel Ribeiro, co-author of a new paper on YouTube’s recommendation algorithm and radicalization, in an X (formerly Twitter) thread about his research.

The studypublished in February in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences (PNAS)is the latest in a growing collection of research that challenges conventional wisdom about social media algorithms and political extremism or polarization.

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Δ Introducing the Counterfactual Bots

For this study, a team of researchers spanning four universities (the University of Pennsylvania, Yale, Carnegie Mellon, and Switzerland’s cole Polytechnique Fdrale de Lausanne) aimed to examine whether YouTube’s algorithms guide viewers toward more and more extreme content.

This supposed “radicalizing” effect has been touted extensively by people in politics, advocacy, academia, and mediaoften offered as justification for giving the government more control over how tech platforms can run. But the research cited to “prove” such an effect is often flawed in a number of ways, including not taking into account what a viewer would have watched in the absence of algorithmic advice.

“Attempts to evaluate the effect of recommenders have suffered from a lack of appropriate counterfactualswhat a user would have viewed in the absence of algorithmic recommendationsand hence cannot disentangle the effects of the algorithm from a user’s intentions,” note the researchers in the abstract to this study.

To overcome this limitation, they relied on “counterfactual bots.” Basically, they had some bots watch a video and then replicate what a real user (based on actual user histories) watched from there, and other bots watch that same first video and then follow YouTube recommendations, in effect going down the algorithmic “rabbit hole” that so many have warned against.

The counterfactual bots following an algorithm-led path wound up consuming less partisan content.

The researchers also found “that real users who consume ‘bursts’ of highly partisan videos subsequently consume more partisan content than identical bots who subsequently follow algorithmic viewing rules.”

“This gap corresponds to an intrinsic preference of users for such content relative to what the algorithm recommends,” notes study co-author Amir Ghasemian on X. Pssst. Social Media Users Have Agency

“Why should you trust this paper rather than other papers or reports saying otherwise?” comments Ribeiro on X. “Because we came up with a way to disentangle the causal effect of the algorithm.”

As Ghasemian explained on X: “It has been shown that exposure to partisan videos is followed by an increase in future consumption of these videos.”

People often assume that this is because algorithms start pushing more of that content.

“We show this is not due to more recommendations of such content. Instead, it is due to a change in user preferences toward more partisan videos,” writes Ghasemian.

Or, as the paper puts it: “a user’s preferences are the primary determinant of their experience.”

That’s an important difference, suggesting that social media users aren’t passive vessels simply consuming whatever some algorithm tells them to but, rather, people with existing and shifting preferences, interests, and habits.

Ghasemian also notes that “recommendation algorithms have been criticized for continuing to recommend problematic content to previously interested users long after they have lost interest in it themselves.” So the researchers set out to see what happens when a user switches from watching more far-right to more moderate content.

They found that “YouTube’s sidebar recommender ‘forgets’ their partisan preference within roughly 30 videos regardless of their prior history, while homepage recommendations shift more gradually toward moderate content,” per the paper abstract.

Their conclusion: “Individual consumption patterns mostly reflect individual preferences, where algorithmic recommendations play, if anything, a moderating role.” It’s Not Just This Study

While “empirical studies using different methodological approaches have reached somewhat different conclusions regarding the relative importance” of algorithms in what a user watches, “no studies find support for the alarming claims of radicalization that characterized early, early, anecdotal accounts,” note the researcher in their paper.

Theirs is part of a burgeoning body of research suggesting that the supposed radicalization effects of algorithmic recommendations aren’t realand, in fact, algorithms (on YouTube and otherwise) may steer people toward more moderate content.

(See my defense of algorithms from Reason’s January 2023 print issue for a whole host of information to this effect.)

A 2021 study from some of the same researchers behind the new study found “little evidence that the YouTube recommendation algorithm is driving attention to” what the researchers call “far right” and “anti-woke” content. The growing popularity of anti-woke content could instead be attributed to “individual preferences that extend across the web as a whole.”

In a 2022 working paper titled “Subscriptions and external links help drive resentful users to alternative and extremist YouTube videos,” researchers found that “exposure to alternative and extremist channel videos on YouTube is heavily concentrated among a small group of people with high prior levels of gender and racial resentment” who typically subscribe to channels from which they’re recommended videos or get to these videos from off-site links. “Non-subscribers are rarely recommended videos from alternative and extremist channels and seldom follow such recommendations when offered.”

And a 2019 paper from researchers Mark Ledwich and Anna Zaitsev found that YouTube algorithms disadvantaged “channels that fall outside mainstream media,” especially “White Identitarian and Conspiracy channels.” Even when someone viewed these types of videos, “their recommendations will be populated with a mixture of extreme and more mainstream content” going forward, leading Ledwich and Zaitsev to conclude that YouTube is “more likely to steer people away from extremist content rather than vice versa.”

Some argue that changes to YouTube’s recommendation algorithm in 2019 shifted things, and these studies don’t capture the old reality. Perhaps. But whether or not that’s the case, the new realityshown in study after recent studyis that YouTube algorithms today aren’t driving people to more extreme content.

And it’s not just YouTube’s algorithm that has been getting reputation rehabbed by research. A series of studies on the influence of Facebook and Instagram algorithms in the lead up to the 2020 election cut against the idea that algorithmic feeds are making people more polarized or less informed.

Researchers tweaked user feeds so that they saw either algorithmically selected content or a chronological feed, or so that they didn’t see re-shares of the sorts of that algorithms prize. Getting rid of algorithmic content or re-shares didn’t reduce polarization or increase accurate political knowledge. But it did increase “the amount of political and untrustworthy content” that a user saw. Today’s Image Esme side-eyes your algorithm panic (ENB/Reason)

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Entertainment

Is buying vinyl bad for the planet – and what can be done about it?

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Is buying vinyl bad for the planet - and what can be done about it?

Taylor Swift’s new album helped fuel the highest weekly vinyl sales in 30 years – but is our rediscovered love of owning records environmentally reckless?

PVC (poly vinyl chloride), the plastic from which records have traditionally been made, isn’t great for the planet, and concerns have also been raised over packaging as vinyl sales have risedn in recent years.

Rou Reynolds, frontman of chart-topping rock band Enter Shikari, believes leading artists need to shoulder some responsibility to “push forward” change.

“The bigger you are as an artist, the more influence you have, the more you can push things forward and accelerate progression,” he says.

Pic: Beth Garrabrant
Image:
Taylor Swift’s Tortured Poets Society is leading the vinyl boom. Pic: Beth Garrabrant

In an interview with Billboard in March, Billie Eilish criticised how “wasteful it is” when “some of the biggest artists in the world” make “40 different vinyl packages”, each with “a different unique thing just to get you to keep buying more”.

“Its reasonable criticism,” says Reynolds, “but I think it’ll basically dissipate as soon as it becomes the standard to use BioVinyl, for instance – that will really take away the possibility of criticism”.

Rather than make records out of regular PVC pellets, over the last few years it has become possible to use renewable sources such as cooking oil or wood pulp.

Enter Shikari at Slam Dunk Festival North in Leeds in 2023. Pic: Graham Finney/Cover Images via AP
Image:
Enter Shikari’s Rou Reynolds, pictured on stage in 2023, says artists need to lead the way. Pic: Graham Finney/Cover Images via AP

“Traditional vinyl is an oil-based product,” Reynolds explains. “No one really wants to support the extraction of any more fossil fuels.”

Enter Shikari now insist all their records are made using BioVinyl, and Reynolds is optimistic that if more artists make demands about what their records are made from, it would become the new norm.

“A lot of independent artists, like myself, we can light these fires, then it spreads and before you know it, it will become the industry standard.”

‘The advances are incredible’

Karen Emmanuel, Key Production Group
Image:
Karen Emanuel, chief executive of Key Production Group, has worked in the industry for 35 years

Leading voices within vinyl production want the music industry to listen.

“Along with the Vinyl Alliance and the Vinyl Records Manufacturers Association, we’re looking at the whole manufacturing chain,” says Karen Emanuel, chief executive of Key Production, the UK’s largest broker for physical music production.

“I’ve been in the business probably about 35 years and the advances that have been made, it’s incredible. A lot of the big plastics companies, for PVC they’ve found a way replacing the fossil fuel elements [which] could mean as much as a 90% reduction in the carbon footprint of the vinyl.”

The catch, at the moment, is the cost.

“It’s a bit more expensive to manufacture but if enough people manufacture with it then the price point will come down… it’s something that we’re really trying to push people towards.”

Would fans be happy to pay more for a greener product?

Lee Jeffries, from Sonic Wax, in Leicestershire
Image:
Lee Jeffries, from Sonic Wax, in Leicestershire, owns the world’s most expensive Motown record. Pic: Sonic Wax

Lee Jefferies, the owner of Leicestershire-based vinyl pressing plant Sonic Wax Pressing, is such a big vinyl lover, he spent £100,000 buying the world’s most valuable Motown record.

“Ultimately everything works from retail back,” he says “And with retail prices already being quite high on vinyl it’s very hard for people to have the extra money to buy biodegradable vinyl.”

But a recent survey conducted by Key Production found more than two thirds (69%) of vinyl buyers indicated they would be encouraged to buy more if the records were made with a reduced environmental impact.

The findings also revealed that the vast majority, 77%, of regular vinyl customers are willing to pay a premium for reduced impact products, signalling a significant market demand for eco-friendly alternatives.

Is there a bigger problem?

Ultimately, either the consumer, artists or labels will have to shoulder the cost if vinyl is to be made more sustainably.

But while a big old hunk of PVC might feel like the least green option, are we getting ourselves in a spin when we should also be looking in another direction?

Figures from the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) and International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) put global vinyl sales for last year at about 80 million – using the IMPALA indepdent music companies association’s music emissions calculator, that works out at producing around 156k tonnes of CO2 emissions.

Read more:
UK vinyl sales at highest level since 1990
Vinyl added to typical shopping basket used in inflation calculation

If you compare that to streaming, with Spotify alone – responsible for about a third of the market – its own estimates for its global carbon emissions were 280k tonnes last year, with vast amounts of electricity being used to power its data storage servers.

For Enter Shikari’s Reynolds, the potential to make vinyl greener is exciting.

“It has the same quality, the same appearance, you really wouldn’t notice the difference, which is incredible,” he says. “I think it speaks to, you know, a lot of the time people think that the transition society is about to go through, we think we’re going to lose luxuries… but I think this is just an example of why that’s not the case.

“You know, all it takes is some thought and some adaptation, and then some adoption… it’s super exciting.”

Perhaps now it’s time for the music industry to take note.

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Sports

Seize the Grey wins Preakness, denies Mystik Dan

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Seize the Grey wins Preakness, denies Mystik Dan

Seize the Grey went wire to wire to win the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, giving 88-year-old Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas a seventh victory in the race and ending Mystik Dan’s Triple Crown bid.

The gray colt, ridden by Jamie Torres, took advantage of the muddy track just like Lukas hoped he would, pulling off the upset at Pimlico Race Course in a second consecutive impressive start two weeks after romping in a race on the Kentucky Derby undercard at Churchill Downs. Seize the Grey went off at 9-1, one of the longest shots on the board.

Mystik Dan finished second in the field of eight horses running in the $2 million, 1 3/16-mile race. After falling short of going back to back following his win by a nose in the Kentucky Derby, it would be a surprise if he runs in the Belmont Stakes on June 8 at Saratoga Race Course.

Mystic Dan’s second-place finish extends a six-year drought in which the Kentucky Derby winner has failed to repeat at the Preakness Stakes. It is the longest such drought since 1989 to 1997, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.

Seize the Grey was a surprise Preakness winner facing tougher competition than in the Pat Day Mile on May 4. Though given the Lukas connection, it should never be a surprise when one of his horses is covered in a blanket of black-eyed Susan flowers.

No one in the race’s 149-year history has saddled more horses in the Preakness than Lukas with 48 since debuting in 1980. He had two this time, with Just Steel finishing fifth.

Lukas has now won the Preakness seven times, one short of the record held by two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer and close friend Bob Baffert, whose Imagination finished seventh. Baffert also was supposed to have two horses in the field and arguably the best, but morning line favorite Muth was scratched earlier in the week because of a fever.

Muth’s absence made Mystik Dan the 2-1 favorite, but he and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. could not replicate their perfect Derby trip — when they won the race’s first three-way photo finish since 1947. Instead, Torres rode Seize the Grey to a win in his first Preakness.

This was the last Preakness held at Pimlico Race Course as it stands before demolition begins on the historic but deteriorating track, which will still hold the 150th running of it next year during construction.

That process is already well underway at Belmont Park, which is why the final leg of the Triple Crown is happening at Saratoga for the first time and is being shortened to 1¼ miles because of the shape of the course. Kentucky Derby second-place finisher Sierra Leone, a half step from winning, is expected to headline that field.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

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Politics

Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris will not stand at next election

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Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris will not stand at next election

Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris has said he won’t be standing at the next general election but will keep campaigning for the Conservative Party.

In a letter to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, which he posted on X on Saturday night, Mr Heaton-Harris said after 24 years in politics, it had been an “honour and a privilege to serve”.

He thanked the people of Daventry, Mr Sunak and former Tory leaders, including Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, “for putting their trust in me”.

Mr Heaton-Harris, who has been serving as Northern Ireland secretary since September 2022, said: “I started as a campaigner and I’ll be out campaigning for @Conservatives at the next election because we are the only party that has and can deliver for the whole of the United Kingdom.”

He joins an exodus of Tory politicians who have announced they will be leaving Westminster at the next general election.

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More than 100 MPs from across the Commons have said they will not be standing.

Those who have announced their intention to leave parliament range from the longest-serving female MP, Labour’s Harriet Harman, to one of those only elected at the last election in 2019, Conservative MP Dehenna Davison.

Of the more than 60 Tory MPs stepping aside, high profile names include former cabinet ministers Ben Wallace, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab and Kwasi Kwarteng.

Back in March, Mrs May, 67, said she too had taken the “difficult decision” to quit the Commons after 27 years representing her Maidenhead constituency.

The last possible day for a general election is Tuesday 28 January 2025.

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