Connect with us

Published

on

For weeks, the ceasefire talks have been at a virtual standstill – not completely broken down but with little movement to report.

Hamas’s new proposal though, is a potential – albeit small – breakthrough in the deadlock.

Until now, Hamas had insisted on a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a demand which led to the failure of securing a deal before Ramadan. Israel, with unfinished military objectives, was never going to agree to that.

Middle East latest:
IDF accuses terrorists of aid crowd deaths

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Israel targets senior Hamas commander

The new offer from Hamas shows the group has softened on that position and is now willing to accept an initial temporary ceasefire during which further talks would be held to extend the truce, perhaps into something permanent.

This new position is aligned with the other parties in the mediation process and notably comes after Hamas officials met with Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon earlier in the week. Qatar is said to be leaning heavily on Hamas too.

One key sticking point

In the initial phase of the deal, a six-week ceasefire would see the release of all women, children, elderly and wounded hostages including ‘female recruits’, which suggests hostages Hamas believes are IDF soldiers.

If talks to turn the ceasefire into something permanent were successful, then all remaining hostages would then be released.

In return, Hamas is said to be demanding the release of between 700 to 1,000 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, including many serving life sentences.

It’s this bit that seems to be the source of continued disagreement, specifically which prisoners are released.

Read more:
At least 29 killed in crowds waiting for aid in Gaza, health ministry says
Top Jewish politician in US strongly criticises Netanyahu and calls for election
UK sends full field hospital to Gaza to follow 150 tonnes of aid

Smoke rises following an Israeli bombardment in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel, Thursday, March 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Image:
Israeli bombardment in the Gaza Strip. Pic: AP

A source very close to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu texted me this morning to say Hamas’s demands were still “delusional”, a word often used throughout this process.

However, the Hamas proposal, at least as far as we understand it, would seem to be a step in the right direction and parts of it will be tempting for the Israeli government and will certainly encourage the thousands of protesters who want the government to do a deal and bring the hostages home.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Without food in Ramadan’ protest in Gaza

Compromise is needed and there’s room for negotiation

The Israeli war cabinet is meeting today to discuss the latest proposal – despite appearing to initially reject it.

I would be surprised if the new Hamas position doesn’t turn out to be a platform for further negotiation in the coming days.

Israeli government sources have hinted in the past that there could be wriggle room on the number and status of Palestinian prisoners, so this might be the basis for talks to resume in a more meaningful way in Cairo or Qatar.

Differences still remain, but the gap is narrowing.

Israel believes it can wear Hamas down through military pressure and perhaps the new Hamas offer is evidence of that, but no deal will ever totally favour one side or the other.

Compromise will be needed. The question is whether Israel will decide this compromise is still not sufficient enough.

Continue Reading

World

Power of Russia sanctions lies in US financial system that greases the wheels

Published

on

By

Power of Russia sanctions lies in US financial system that greases the wheels

US sanctions against Russia’s two largest energy companies, the state-owned Rosneft and privately held Lukoil, are perhaps the most significant economic measures imposed by the West since the invasion of Ukraine.

If fully implemented, they have the potential to significantly choke off the flow of fossil fuel revenue that funds Russia’s war machine, but their power lies not in directly denying Russia access to the tankers, ports and refineries that make the oil trade turn, but the US financial system that greases the wheels.

Ever since the invasion, the Russian government has proved masterful at evading sanctions, aided and abetted by allies of economic convenience and an oil industry with decades of experience.

Ukraine war latest: Zelenskyy expresses relief at Trump move

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

New US sanctions on Russia: What do we know?

While the West, principally the EU, has largely turned off the taps and stopped buying Russian oil, China, India and Turkey became the largest consumers, with a shadow fleet of tankers ensuring exports continued to flow.

Data from the Centre for Research into Energy and Clean Air (CREA) shows that while fossil fuel revenues have fallen from more than €1bn a day before the war, they have remained above €600m since the start of 2023, only dipping towards €500m in the last month.

None of that oil has been heading for the US, but these sanctions will directly impact the ability of the Russian companies, and anyone doing business with them, to operate within America’s financial orbit.

According to the order from the US Office for Foreign Asset Control, the sanctions block all assets of the two companies, their subsidiaries and a number of named individuals, as well as preventing US citizens or financial institutions from doing business with them.

It also threatens foreign financial institutions that “facilitate transactions… involving Russia’s military-industrial base” with direct or secondary sanctions.

Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting in Moscow.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
Image:
Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting in Moscow.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters

In practice, the measures should prevent the two companies from accessing not just dollars, but trading markets, insurance and other services with any financial connection to the US.

Taken in harness with similar steps announced by the UK earlier this month, analysts believe they can have a genuinely chilling effect on the market for Russian oil and gas.

Russia’s customers for oil in China, India and Turkey will also be affected, with the largest companies, state-owned and private, expected to be unwilling to take the risk of engaging directly with sanctioned entities.

Indian companies are already reported to be “recalibrating” their imports following the announcement, which came just a week after Donald Trump announced an additional 25% import tariff on Indian goods as punishment for the country’s reliance on Russian oil.

Read more:
Russia has responded with bravado to US sanctions
Trump imposes sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil firms

That does not mean that Russian oil and gas exports will cease. There are other unsanctioned Russian energy companies that can still trade, and ever since the first barrel of oil was tapped, the industry has proved adept at evading sanctions intended to interrupt its flow from one country or another.

Any significant increase in the oil price beyond the 5% seen in the aftermath of the announcement could also put pressure on the White House, which is at least as sensitive to fuel prices at home as it is to foreign wars.

But analysts Kpler expect the sanctions to cause “an immediate, short-term hiatus in Russian crude exports, as it will take time for sellers to reorganise and rebuild their trading systems to circumvent restrictions and ease buyers’ concerns”.

And Russian gas will, for now, continue to flow into Europe, where distaste for Vladimir Putin‘s imperial ambitions has not killed the appetite for his fuel. While the EU has this week imposed sanctions on liquified natural gas (LNG), they will not be fully enforced until 2027.

Continue Reading

World

Dublin protests: Prams filled with fireworks as teens – and children as young as seven – clash with police

Published

on

By

Dublin protests: Prams filled with fireworks as teens - and children as young as seven - clash with police

At least 23 people have been arrested during a second night of violent disorder near an asylum hotel in Dublin.

Two police officers were taken to hospital with injuries sustained during clashes with protesters – including one who was struck on the head by a bottle.

A Sky News crew was caught in the confusion as police charged at crowds, who were throwing fireworks, stones and other debris.

Eyewitness: It got ugly – and fast

By Connor Gillies, news correspondent

The Telegram and WhatsApp group chats were alive with activity organising night two of unrest here on the edge of Dublin.

City chiefs halted trams and buses to this part of the Irish capital in a bid to reduce the number of mobs coming from other areas to fight police.

It got ugly, and fast.

I witnessed children as young as seven throwing bricks at riot officers, that were standing in rows 5ft deep.

Balaclava-clad thugs were spotted pulling and shaking bollards on the roadside in an effort to dislodge the tarmac to use as projectiles.

Pepper spray from fire extinguisher-size canisters pelted the eyes of those who dared to confront law enforcement.

Teenagers dragged a baby pram filled with fireworks lit their missiles as they chucked them at officers who were charging forward in a bid to get the hundreds of locals under control.

There is palpable, deep anger in this community after the alleged sexual assault of a 10-year-old girl near a large hotel housing asylum seekers.

The recent incident has fuelled a “get them out” pitchfork mentality that authorities, so far, appear to be struggling to get a grip of.

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

It is the third night of demonstrations at the Citywest Hotel following an alleged sexual assault in the early hours of Monday morning.

A demonstration in the wake of the incident, which allegedly involved a 10-year-old girl, turned violent on Tuesday night. A police officer was injured and six arrests were made.

A 26-year-old man, who cannot be named due to rules that apply to all sexual assault cases in the Republic of Ireland, appeared in court on Tuesday charged over the alleged attack.

Gardai officers block protesters near the Citywest Hotel in Dublin.  Pic: PA
Image:
Gardai officers block protesters near the Citywest Hotel in Dublin. Pic: PA

Police had earlier pledged a “robust response” if the violence continued.

Between 7pm and 8pm, hundreds of protesters faced off with around 40 uniformed officers.

The uniformed officers were replaced with the Public Order Unit, who were carrying plastic shields and additional body protection.

A police van was set on fire on Tuesday night.
Image:
A police van was set on fire on Tuesday night.

Protesters detained after stand-off

Hundreds of protesters had been facing off against the public order unit of the Irish police force along Citywest Drive.

While large parts of the crowd dispersed throughout the night, an additional public order unit was deployed to tackle those remaining at the protest shortly after 10pm.

A number of protesters have been detained after fireworks and rocks were thrown at police. Pic: PA
Image:
A number of protesters have been detained after fireworks and rocks were thrown at police. Pic: PA

Several of those caught between the two units were tackled and detained as they tried to flee.

Justice minister Jim O’Callaghan said “many have been arrested” and “more will follow” – and went on to praise officers who had responded professionally to “thuggish violence” in the area.

Mr O’Callaghan vowed that those arrested would be “charged, named and dealt with relentlessly” by the criminal justice system.

Continue Reading

World

Donald Trump imposes sanctions against Russia’s two biggest oil companies as frustration grows with Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war

Published

on

By

Donald Trump imposes sanctions against Russia's two biggest oil companies as frustration grows with Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war

Donald Trump has imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies – and spoke of his frustration with Vladimir Putin.

In a major policy shift, new restrictions have been unveiled against Rosneft and Lukoil – as well as dozens of subsidiaries – due to “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine”.

“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.

“Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. We encourage our allies to join us in, and adhere to, these sanctions.”

The move marked a significant change for the Trump administration, which has veered between pressuring Moscow and taking a more conciliatory approach aimed at securing peace in Ukraine.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to reporters at the White House. Pic: Reuters
Image:
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to reporters at the White House. Pic: Reuters

Trump frustrated with Putin

The US president has resisted pressure to impose energy sanctions on Russia, hoping that Putin would agree to end the fighting. But with no end in sight, he said he felt it was time.

More from US

Mr Trump explained he has a “very good relationship” with his Russian counterpart, but felt he had to cancel their planned meeting as “it didn’t feel right to me”.

In a sign of growing frustration, he told reporters: “It didn’t feel like we were going to get to the place we have to get. So I cancelled it. But we’ll do it in the future.

“I have good conversations. And then, they don’t go anywhere. They just don’t go anywhere.”

He also hinted that the sanctions could be lifted if the Russian president was prepared to cooperate in peace talks.

“We hope that they [the sanctions] won’t be on for long,” he said in the Oval Office. “We hope that the war will be settled.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Putin-Trump talks: The view from Moscow

Trump wants Xi to help with Ukraine

Ahead of a meeting next week with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, Mr Trump said he would like Beijing to help put pressure on Moscow to halt the fighting.

“I think he [Xi] can have a big influence on Putin. I think he can have a big influence … he’s a respected man. He’s a very strong leader of a very big country. And we will certainly be talking about Russia-Ukraine,” he said.

Xi and Putin have formed a strategic alliance between their countries.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Why Tomahawks are off the table

Ukraine denied Tomahawk missiles

However, Mr Trump warned he is not prepared to provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, which Kyiv has requested.

He explained it would take the Ukrainians up to a year to learn how to use the “highly complex” weapons.

“The only way a Tomahawk is going to be shot … is if we shot it. And we’re not going to do that.

“It takes a year of intense training to learn how to use it, and we know how to use it, and we’re not going to be teaching other people.”

Continue Reading

Trending