Rishi Sunak hopes three key moments this week will turn around his fortunes after his standing in the party plummeted.
The PM is hoping Monday’s speech on the economy, Wednesday’s end of term appearance before Tory MPs and new inflation figures due out the same day, which could be close to the Bank of England target of 2%, will stem the bleeding of his premiership.
The Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast conducted a wide-ranging survey of the Tory party, across the main factions and wings, and found misery and despair, and a revived talk of changing leader if things do not improve.
Although senior figures still put this at below 50%, it is now being widely discussed and is likely to revive if the party does not do well in the 2 May local elections, which is anticipated.
Sunak has lost some of the goodwill and support of the one nation group of moderate MPs, on top of the existing disquiet amongst Red Wall MPs.
“Previously the party – apart from hardcore Boris-ites and Trussites – thought that it would be ridiculous to have another change of leadership in this parliament. That feeling has been weakened by the polls not moving,” said one One Nation Tory.
“It is certainly true that if you can find someone who can be anointed leader in a coronation rather than a contest, it might be worth it to save 50-100 seats.”
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‘Sunak will still be Tory leader at next general election’
One name that appears to fit the bill for several different parts of the Tory parliamentary party is Commons leader and two-time leadership contender Penny Mordaunt.
Some on the right say she might be their compromise candidate as she is pro-Brexit, performs well in the Commons, and would run a “balanced” government post-Sunak.
Image: Pic: Danny Lawson/PA Wire
A 2019 Tory MP told me for the podcast that they are getting spontaneous constituency correspondence saying “thank God Penny is in the running” and “I hope she’s the party’s future”.
However one source said she believes there is no way there could be a change of leader without a contest and believes there would have to be a general election straight away if Sunak went, making the job a lot less appealing.
Tory MPs will spend much of Monday together in the division lobbies to vote to reject amendments inserted by the House of Lords into the Rwanda bill, and there will be a better sense of the mood after that, we say on the Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast.
Rachel Reeves will unveil further welfare cuts in her spring statement after being told the reforms announced last week will save less than planned, Sky News understands.
The fiscal watchdog put the value of the cuts at £3.4bn, leaving ministers scrambling to find further savings.
Ms Reeves is now expected to announce that universal credit (UC) incapacity benefits for new claimants, which were halved under the original plan, will also be frozen until 2030 rather than rising in line with inflation
As originally reported by The Times, there will also be a small reduction in the basic rate of UC in 2029, with the new measures expected to raise £500m.
A Whitehall source told Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby that it is “hard to tell how MPs will react”, as while the OBR’s assessment means fewer people will be affected by the PIP changes than thought, they “might be unhappy about the chaotic nature of it all”.
Several Labour MPs criticised the measures as pushing more sick and disabled people into poverty, while former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn called the package a “disgrace” on Tuesday and accused the government of imposing austerity on the country.
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‘Labour MPs are upset’
Spending cuts expected
Ms Reeves is expected to announce a large package of departmental spending cuts when she gives an update on the economy on Wednesday, potentially putting her on a further collision course with her own MPs.
Having only committed to doing one proper budget each year in the autumn, the spring statement was meant to be a low-key affair.
However, a turbulent economic climate since October means the OBR is widely expected to downgrade its growth forecasts for the UK while the government has borrowed more than previously expected.
This has wiped out the £9.9bn gap in her fiscal headroom Ms Reeves left herself at her budget last year – money she needs to make up if she wants to stick to her self-imposed fiscal rule that day-to-day spending must be funded through tax receipts, not debt, by 2029-30.
In a bid to fend off criticism, she will also announce an extra £2.2bn will be spent on defence over the next year to “deliver security for working people”.
The money is part of the government’s aim to hike defence spending to 2.5% of the UK’s economic output by 2027 – up from the 2.3% where it stands now.
Ms Reeves will insist this plan, set out by the prime minister in February, was the “right decision” against the backdrop of global instability, saying it will put “an extra 6.4bn into the defence budget by 2027”.
“This increase in investment is not just about increasing our national security but increasing our economic security, too,” she will say.
The money is coming from reductions to the international aid budget and Treasury reserves, and will be used to invest in new technology, refurbish homes for military families and upgrade HM Naval Base Portsmouth.
The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, an independent agency of the federal government, is reportedly moving to stop using the “reputational risk” category as a way to supervise banks.
According to a letter sent by the agency’s acting chairman, Travis Hill, to Rep. Dan Meuser on March 24, banking regulators should not use “reputational risk” to scrutinize firms.
“While a bank’s reputation is critically important, most activities that could threaten a bank’s reputation do so through traditional risk channels (e.g., credit risk, market risk, etc.) that supervisors already focus on,” notes the letter, first reported by Politico.
According to the document, the FDIC has completed a “review of all mentions of reputational risk” in its regulations and policy documents and has “plans to eradicate this concept from our regulatory approach.”
Reputational risk and debanking
The Federal Reserve defines reputational risk as “the potential that negative publicity regarding an institution’s business practices, whether true or not, will cause a decline in the customer base, costly litigation, or revenue reductions.”
The FIDC letter specifically mentioned digital assets, with Hill noting that the agency has generally been “closed for business” for institutions interested in blockchain or distributed ledger technology. Now, as per the document, the FDIC is working on a new direction for digital asset policy aiming at providing banks a way to engage with digital assets.
The letter was sent in response to a February communication from Meuser and other lawmakers with recommendations for digital asset rules and ways to prevent debanking.
Industries deemed as “risky” to banks often face significant challenges in establishing or maintaining banking relationships. The crypto industry faced such challenges during what became known as Operation Chokepoint 2.0.
The unofficial Operation led to more than 30 technology and cryptocurrency companies being denied banking services in the US after the collapse of crypto-friendly banks earlier in 2023.
Web3 gaming platform Immutable says the US Securities and Exchange Commission has closed its investigation into the company, clearing it of any further action.
Immutable — the firm behind the Ethereum layer-2 ImmutableX — said in a March 25 statement that the SEC shut its inquiry into the firm without finding wrongdoing and “closes the loop on the Wells notice issued by the SEC last year.”
In November, Immutable said it received a Wells notice from the regulator — a letter informing that the SEC is considering an enforcement action, typically sent after it concludes there is evidence of possible securities law violations.
“We are pleased the SEC has concluded its inquiry. This marks a significant milestone for the crypto industry and gaming as we advance towards a future with regulatory clarity,” Immutable president and co-founder Robbie Ferguson said in a statement.
An Immutable spokesperson told Cointelegraph that the SEC sent it a letter of termination that didn’t explain why it had concluded its probe. The spokesperson said the letter was unprompted and that the SEC’s review of information Immutable had sent “appears to have resulted in them closing the investigation.”
Immutable said in a November blog post that it believed the SEC was targeting the 2021 “listing and private sales” of its self-titled Immutable (IMX) token.
Immutable’s X post after receiving a Wells notice in November 2024. Source: Immutable
The company said it had a 10-minute call with the SEC after it had issued the notice where it alleged a 2021 Immutable blog post stating a pre-launch investment made in the IMX token at a price of $0.10, which was issued at a “$10 pre-100:1 split,” was inaccurate and implied there was no exchange of value between the parties.
At the time, Immutable said it was “confident in its position” and would fight the regulator’s claims.
The SEC has dropped many pending and in progress enforcement actions against crypto companies under President Donald Trump, whose administration has worked to defang the agency to make good on his promise to alleviate the crypto industry from regulatory action.
Last month, the SEC stopped its investigations into non-fungible token marketplace OpenSea, trading platform Robinhood, decentralized exchange developer Uniswap Labs and crypto exchange Gemini.
The regulator has also dropped a slew of its high-profile lawsuits against crypto firms, including those against Ripple Labs, Coinbase and Kraken.
Despite the SEC backing off from Immutable, the Manhattan-based Rosen Law Firm has cited the Wells notice in trying to spin up a securities class-action lawsuit against the firm over its IMX token offering, which Immutable’s spokesperson said it’s “not concerned about.”
In its statement, Immutable said that major triple AAA gaming studios “have previously cited legal and compliance risks as key barriers to entry” into the Web3 gaming space.
“However, with a clear regulatory framework on the horizon, this is expected to unlock further investment and opportunities to tokenize the now more than $100 billion market for in-game purchases,” it added.