Car industry insists 2,000% increase in sales to Azerbaijan has nothing to do with Russia
Britain’s car industry has insisted that an unprecedented 2,000% increase in vehicle exports to Azerbaijan has nothing to with Russia and is explained by the fact that the former Soviet state is a “flourishing market in its own right”.
Sky analysis has found that the British car sector sent another £40m worth of cars to Azerbaijan in the first month of this year, raising fresh questions about whether those cars were being sent there to circumvent sanctions on Russia.
New data from HM Revenue & Customs shows that while direct car exports to Russia remain at zero, where they have been since the imposition of sanctions in 2022, in January £43m worth of cars were sent to Azerbaijan, the former Soviet state neighbouring Russia.
That meant Azerbaijan, which hitherto had rarely made the top 75 export destinations for British cars, is now the 12th biggest foreign market, by value, for British-made cars: above Switzerland, Canada and Spain.
UK carmakers have pledged not to send cars to Russia, with sanctions formally banning the export of “dual use” items which could be repurposed as weapons in the Ukraine war. There are separate sanctions specifically banning the trade of cars worth over £42,000.
However, Sky News analysis found last week that over precisely the same period as British car exports to Azerbaijan rose sharply, there was a near-simultaneous rise in car exports from Azerbaijan to Russia.
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British-made luxury cars still being bought by rich Russians
The average value of cars sent from the UK to Azerbaijan in January was just over £115,000.
Trade data shows that similar increases in British exports have been seen in other former Soviet Russian neighbours, including Kazakhstan, Armenia and Georgia.
A spokesman from Britain’s motoring lobby group, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), said it had detected no evidence the vehicles being sent to Azerbaijan were destined for Russia – and that they were evidence that it was a “flourishing market in its own right”.
“UK vehicle exports to Azerbaijan – as to many countries globally – have increased due to a number of factors, not least a flourishing economy, new model launches and pent-up demand,” it said.
Azerbaijan’s flatlining economy
However, the notion that the exports were evidence of a flourishing economy stands in stark contrast to the economic data, which show that Azerbaijan’s GDP per capita has been flat for a decade and a half at around $15,000 in purchasing power parity terms.
Since two years preceding the pandemic, the value of car exports to Azerbaijan has risen by more than 2,000%. No other sizeable car market in the world has come close, save for Kazakhstan, the other Russian neighbour, whose imports of British-made cars are up 800%.
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Carmakers told to act after Sky report
The SMMT said: “Wherever the UK automotive industry exports, it is committed to compliance with all trade and economic sanctions, and continues to work closely with government and the new Office For Sanctions to ensure the effective implementation of the regulations.
“There is no evidence available of that commitment being compromised, and it is right to monitor for any potential vulnerabilities in a fast-moving and evolving environment.
“The automotive industry remains in dialogue with government and other international partners enforcing co-ordinated trade restrictions, to ensure adherence to both the letter and the spirit of the sanctions, across all vulnerable sectors.”
While the sheer number of cars going to Azerbaijan is small, the value of those cars is consistently high, averaging well over £100,000 and suggesting they are mostly luxury cars.
There have been similar flows detected from other European nations, including Germany and Poland, to other former Soviet states neighbouring Russia.
Following the original Sky News story last week, Foreign Office Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan said car companies should examine their orders to ensure they are complying with sanctions rules.
The cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which halted production for nearly six weeks at its sites, cost the company roughly £200m, it has been revealed.
Latest accounts released on Friday showed “cyber-related costs” were £196m, which does not include the fall in sales.
Profits took a nose dive, falling from nearly £400m (£398m) a year ago to a loss of £485m in the three months to the end of September.
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Revenues dropped nearly 25% and the effects may continue as the manufacturing halt could slow sales in the final three months of the year, executives said.
The impact of the shutdown also hit factories across the car-making supply chain.
Slowing the UK economy
The production pause was a large contributor to a contraction in UK economic growth in September, official figures showed.
Had car output not fallen 28.6%, the UK economy would have grown by 0.1% during the month. Instead, it fell by 0.1%.
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How cyber attack ‘effectively hacked GDP’
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Reacting to JLR’s impact on the GDP contraction, its chief financial officer, Richard Molyneux, said it was “interesting to hear” and it “goes to reinforce” that JLR is really important in the UK economy.
The company, he said, is the “biggest exporter of goods in the entire country” and the effect on GDP “is a reflection of the success JLR has had in past years”.
Recovery
The company said operations were “pretty much back running as normal” and plants were “at or approaching capacity”.
Production of all luxury vehicles resumed.
Investigations are underway into the attack, with law enforcement in “many jurisdictions” involved, the company said.
When asked about the cause of the hack and the hackers, JLR said it was not in a position to answer questions due to the live investigation.
A run of attacks
The manufacturer was just one of a number of major companies to be seriously impacted by cyber criminals in recent months.
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Are we in a cyber attack ‘epidemic’?
High street retailer Marks and Spencer estimated the cost of its IT outage was roughly £136m. The sum only covers the cost of immediate incident systems response and recovery, as well as specialist legal and professional services support.
The Co-Op and Harrods also suffered service disruption caused by cyber attacks.
Four people were arrested by police investigating the incidents.
Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have scrapped plans to break their manifesto pledge and raise income tax rates in a massive U-turn less than two weeks from the budget.
The decision, first reported in the Financial Times, comes after a bruising few days which has brought about a change of heart in Downing Street.
Read more: How No 10 plunged itself into crisis
I understand Downing Street has backed down amid fears about the backlash from disgruntled MPs and voters.
The Treasury and Number 10 declined to comment.
The decision is a massive about-turn. In a news conference last week, the chancellor appeared to pave the way for manifesto-breaking tax rises in the budget on 26 November.
She spoke of difficult choices and insisted she could neither increase borrowing nor cut spending in order to stabilise the economy, telling the public “everyone has to play their part”.
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‘Aren’t you making a mockery of voters?’
The decision to backtrack was communicated to the Office for Budget Responsibility on Wednesday in a submission of “major measures”, according to the Financial Times.
The chancellor will now have to fill an estimated £30bn black hole with a series of narrower tax-raising measures and is also expected to freeze income tax thresholds for another two years beyond 2028, which should raise about £8bn.
Tory shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith said: “We’ve had the longest ever run-up to a budget, damaging the economy with uncertainty, and yet – with just days to go – it is clear there is chaos in No 10 and No 11.”
How did we get here?
For weeks, the government has been working up options to break the manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT on working people.
I was told only this week the option being worked up was to do a combination of tax rises and action on the two-child benefit cap in order for the prime minister to be able to argue that in breaking his manifesto pledges, he is trying his hardest to protect the poorest in society and those “working people” he has spoken of so endlessly.
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Ed Conway on the chancellor’s options
But days ago, officials and ministers were working on a proposal to lift the basic rate of income tax – perhaps by 2p – and then simultaneously cut national insurance contributions for those on the basic rate of income tax (those who earn up to £50,000 a year).
That way the chancellor can raise several billion in tax from those with the “broadest shoulders” – higher-rate taxpayers and pensioners or landlords, while also trying to protect “working people” earning salaries under £50,000 a year.
The chancellor was also going to take action on the two-child benefit cap in response to growing demand from the party to take action on child poverty. It is unclear whether those plans will now be shelved given the U-turn on income tax.
A rough week for the PM
The change of plan comes after the prime minister found himself engulfed in a leadership crisis after his allies warned rivals that he would fight any attempted post-budget coup.
It triggered a briefing war between Wes Streeting and anonymous Starmer allies attacking the health secretary as the chief traitor.
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Read more: Is Starmer ‘in office but not in power’?
The prime minister has since apologised to Mr Streeting, who I am told does not want to press for sackings in No 10 in the wake of the briefings against him.
But the saga has further damaged Sir Keir and increased concerns among MPs about his suitability to lead Labour into the next general election.
Insiders clearly concluded that the ill mood in the party, coupled with the recent hits to the PM’s political capital, makes manifesto-breaking tax rises simply too risky right now.
But it also adds to a sense of chaos, given the chancellor publicly pitch-rolled tax rises in last week’s news conference.
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