Putin extends his rule after an unfree and unfair election – so what’s next?

Published

1 year ago

March 18, 2024

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Now the three-day electoral spectacle is done – a shiny semblance of democracy, unfree, unfair and underpinned by Soviet-style repressions – what is next for Vladimir Putin and for the country he leads?

Expect the state to clamp down still further on what remains of Russia‘s enfeebled civil society.

Putin‘s authoritarian course was set way ahead of his invasion of Ukraine, but over the last two years there has been a galloping momentum to the erosion of civil liberties and to the numbers jailed for minor infractions suddenly deemed subversive.

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Election most corrupt ‘in Russia’s history’

This is a long way from the kinds of repressions Stalin inflicted on his countrymen where millions were sent to the gulags, but the trajectory is bad.

“All these people surrounding Putin are participating in a race of repression initiatives,” says Andrei Kolesnikov, of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.

“To be loyal is to invent new repressions, new amendments to the laws on foreign agents, on the media, on the criminal code.”

The elites are nothing if not consistent on that front, their consolidation around Putin and their performative loyalty one of the features of the past two, uncertain years.

The Communist Party, for example, supposedly the biggest threat on the ballot to Putin in the polls, has this Monday declared electronic voting unsafe.

Not, mind you, because of the ease with which election officials might manipulate the outcome, but because of potential “interference from the outside”.

There it is – the role of the Kremlin-approved “opposition” to back up Putin’s narrative, whatever that might be.

That is why they are welcomed in the parliament and on the ballot and are happy to take away a meagre 4% of the vote.

Welcome to Russia’s token “opposition” – remember that the actual opposition are either in prison, in exile or dead.

Putin will continue to tell his people more of the same about their place in history and the necessity of his war in Ukraine.

Russian nuclear weapons are big and terrifying, Russian society is one big happy family, the wartime economy is doing well, the multipolar future is here to stay – just keep the faith in this eternal war with the West.

Many, perhaps most, Russians will absorb that messaging because it is compellingly told and pervasive, but there is also a sense of unease vis-a-vis the war, an uncertainty and an unwillingness to look far ahead or plan for the future.

“We have very high inflation, salaries have not increased, we’ve become poorer, there is less choice in terms of consumer goods and household items in general because companies have left so we just engage in piracy now,” one voter in Moscow told our team on Sunday, a succinct precis of the sanctions impact felt at least in the big cities.

“It has become almost impossible to visit certain countries and families and friends. We have really rolled back and become less civilised.”

Now that Putin has overcome this election “hurdle” there will be no literal barrier beyond a hit to his approval ratings should he call for a further mobilisation.

That possibility remains in the back of people’s minds, but Russia’s fortunes in Ukraine would have to worsen considerably if Putin were to take that step and he’ll likely desist if he can.

Until Ukraine can get the weaponry and ammunition it needs to fight back more effectively, Putin will remain buoyed by the kind of confidence we’ve seen in recent weeks.

“If a year ago Putin focused on protecting ‘our land’ and resorted to defensive, even sacrificial rhetoric, now he sounds victorious speaking not on behalf of a geopolitical victim but on behalf of a ‘colossal, all-conquering force’,” writes Tatyana Stanovaya, of R.Politik, on the social media platform Telegram.

“This is explained by the growing faith of the Russian leadership in Russia’s military advantage in the war with Ukraine, and a sense of the weakness and disunity of the West.”

Much will depend on events outside of Russia this year – arms to Ukraine, the future incumbent in the White House and the cohesion, or lack of it, of the West.

Those are, one must hope, outside of Putin’s control even if the West must shore up its democracies to make sure that that is indeed the case.

What is certain is that Putin has relentless staying power, a conclusion as clear before this “election” as it is now.

World

Nine killed in Russian attack on civilian bus, Ukraine’s military says

Published

2 hours ago

May 17, 2025

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Nine killed in Russian attack on civilian bus, Ukraine's military says

A Russian attack on a civilian bus in Ukraine’s northeast Sumy region has killed nine people and injured four others, the Ukrainian military has said.

“Medics and rescuers have been urgently sent to the scene,” Ihor Tkachenko, head of Sumy’s military administration, said on Telegram.

Russia’s TASS state news agency said the defence ministry had claimed Russian forces struck a Ukrainian military equipment staging area in the Sumy region with drones.

The deaths prompted a strong response from Ukraine’s National Police on the Telegram messaging app: “This is not just another shelling – it is a cynical war crime”.

Ukraine’s police posted photos of a dark blue passenger van nearly destroyed, with the roof torn off and the windows blown out.

The attack comes hours after Russia and Ukraine held their first direct peace talks in three years.

The meeting of Russian and Ukrainian officials in Turkey on Friday failed to broker a temporary ceasefire.

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World

Up to a million Palestinians could be ‘permanently relocated’ to war-torn Libya under US plans

Published

7 hours ago

May 17, 2025

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Up to a million Palestinians could be 'permanently relocated' to war-torn Libya under US plans

Up to a million Palestinians could be permanently relocated from devastated Gaza to war-torn Libya under plans being worked on by Donald Trump’s administration, NBC News reports.

The idea has been discussed with Libya’s leadership, sources told Sky’s US partner network, and would potentially see billions of dollars in frozen Libyan funds released.

The North African country remains divided in two – nearly 14 years after the overthrow of dictator Muammar Gaddafi sparked a civil war – with two rival governments fighting for control.

It comes as Israel continues a campaign of airstrikes on Gaza, with 93 people killed and hundreds injured on Friday, according to local medics.

No final agreement on any Libya plans have been reached, sources told NBC News, and US government agencies did not respond to requests for comment from the news outlet.

Previous suggestions to resettle Palestinians from Gaza – voluntarily or otherwise – have provoked international outcry, particularly from Arab states who likely will play a role in rebuilding the enclave after any permanent ceasefire deal.

And Libya is far from a safe nation, according to the US State Department’s own travel advice, which says Americans should not travel to the country “due to crime, terrorism, unexploded landmines, civil unrest, kidnapping, and armed conflict”.

President Trump, speaking on the final day of his Middle East trip, said he was looking to resolve a range of global crises, including Gaza.

“We’re looking at Gaza,” he said. “And we’ve got to get that taken care of. A lot of people are starving. A lot of people are – there’s a lot of bad things going on.”

There had been hopes that his tour of the region could increase the chances of a ceasefire deal or prompt Israel to lift its blockade of Gaza that is preventing humanitarian aid from getting in.

But instead Israel has continued to launch airstrikes on the territory, killing more than 250 people in the last two days, according to Hamas-run health authorities.

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The Israeli military, which had dropped leaflets on the northern town of Beit Lahia ordering residents to leave, said their airforce had struck more than 150 military targets across Gaza in recent days.

This week, Israel said it had bombed the European Hospital because it was home to an underground Hamas base, but Sky News analysis has cast doubt on its evidence.

Israeli officials said the latest strikes were a prelude to a larger military campaign in Gaza aimed at pressuring Hamas to release hostages.

Ahmed Abu Riziq, founder of the Gaza Great Minds Foundation, which seeks to give children access to education in Gaza, said “the hell doors opened” in the last few days.

Speaking to Sky News from Gaza City, he said: “Myself with my family, we had to flee today from some certain areas in northern Gaza City… people are running in the streets. They don’t know where to go or where to sleep at night. So it’s really catastrophic.”

“No food is entering Gaza,” he added, saying that people are dying from hunger.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this month that Israel plans to seize all of Gaza and hold it indefinitely.

Tom Fletcher, head of the UN office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs, warned the Security Council this week it must “act now” to “prevent genocide” – a claim Israel vehemently denies.

World

First Russia-Ukraine talks since 2022 agree POW swap – but last less than two hours

Published

7 hours ago

May 17, 2025

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First Russia-Ukraine talks since 2022 agree POW swap - but last less than two hours

Russia and Ukraine failed to agree to a ceasefire in their first direct talks since 2022 – as European leaders called Moscow’s approach “unacceptable” after the discussions lasted less than two hours and Vladimir Putin stayed away.

The meeting in Istanbul, Turkey, was set up at short notice on President Putin‘s behest, but he declined a challenge from Volodymyr Zelenskyy to meet him in person and instead sent relatively junior representatives.

A source in the Ukrainian team told Sky News that Russia had threatened “eternal war” during the talks.

They said the Russians were not ready to talk about technical details of a ceasefire and were waiting for superiors to approve them.

Latest updates on Istanbul talks

Both countries said they had agreed to trade 1,000 prisoners of war each in what would be the biggest such exchange yet of the conflict.

But Kyiv wants the West to impose tighter sanctions unless Moscow accepts a proposal from Donald Trump for a 30-day ceasefire.

President Zelenskyy said after the meeting that he had spoken to Mr Trump by phone – alongside Sir Keir Starmer and the leaders of France, Germany and Poland – who all met in Albania on Friday.

In a post on X, he said Ukraine was “ready to take the fastest possible steps to bring real peace” and that “tough sanctions must follow” if Russia continues to resist a month-long truce.

Frustration over Russia‘s perceived stalling in holding serious negotiations was also clear from the European leaders gathered in Tirana.

“The Russian position is clearly unacceptable, and not for the first time,” said Sir Keir.

“So as a result of that meeting with President Zelenskyy and that call with President Trump we are now closely aligning our responses and will continue to do so.”

The UK prime minister said the no-show by Russia’s leader was “more evidence that Putin is not serious about peace” and has “been dragging his heels”.

NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte, who was also in Albania, said President Putin had made a “big mistake” by sending low-level delegates to Istanbul.

A list of representatives ahead of the meeting listed presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, deputy foreign minister Galuzin Mikhail Yuryevich and deputy defence chief Alexander Fomin.

Ukraine’s delegation was led by defence minister Rustem Umerov.

President Zelenskyy had called the Russian team “a theatre prop” ahead of the summit in the Dolmabahce Palace.

However, Turkey’s foreign minister heralded it as “an important day for world peace” and said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to swap 1,000 POWs each as a “confidence-building measure”.

Hakan Fidan shared a picture of the delegations and said they had “agreed to share with the other side in writing the conditions that would make it possible to reach a ceasefire”.

Russia’s Vladimir Medinsky said his team had “taken note” of the Ukrainian request for direct talks between Mr Putin and Mr Zelenskyy.

“We have agreed that each side will present its vision of a possible future ceasefire and spell it out in detail,” said Mr Medinsky.

Hopes ahead of the meeting were low after Mr Trump and his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, played down the prospect of meaningful progress.

The US president told reporters on Air Force One on Thursday “nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together”, while Mr Rubio said a “breakthrough” was unlikely until the US and Russian presidents meet.

No date for such a meeting has been proposed, but Mr Trump has said it will happen “as soon as we can set it up”.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that top-level talks were “certainly needed” but arranging it would take time.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was a notable absentee, despite attending Ukraine-focused talks with the US in Saudi Arabia in February.

Russia has so far failed to agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire – proposed by European leaders who have threatened Moscow with “massive” sanctions if it doesn’t sign up. The US also supports the plan.

The Kremlin has ambitions to keep swathes of Ukrainian land as part of any long-term truce, an idea that Kyiv firmly rejects.

Russia also wants an end to Ukraine’s NATO ambitions and a promise it will stay neutral.