Putin extends his rule after an unfree and unfair election – so what’s next?
Now the three-day electoral spectacle is done – a shiny semblance of democracy, unfree, unfair and underpinned by Soviet-style repressions – what is next for Vladimir Putin and for the country he leads?
Expect the state to clamp down still further on what remains of Russia‘s enfeebled civil society.
Putin‘s authoritarian course was set way ahead of his invasion of Ukraine, but over the last two years there has been a galloping momentum to the erosion of civil liberties and to the numbers jailed for minor infractions suddenly deemed subversive.
Russia-Ukraine war latest: Election most corrupt ‘in Russia’s history’
Pic: Reuters
This is a long way from the kinds of repressions Stalin inflicted on his countrymen where millions were sent to the gulags, but the trajectory is bad.
“All these people surrounding Putin are participating in a race of repression initiatives,” says Andrei Kolesnikov, of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.
“To be loyal is to invent new repressions, new amendments to the laws on foreign agents, on the media, on the criminal code.”
The elites are nothing if not consistent on that front, their consolidation around Putin and their performative loyalty one of the features of the past two, uncertain years.
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Putin rival: ‘Our election is not free or fair’
The Communist Party, for example, supposedly the biggest threat on the ballot to Putin in the polls, has this Monday declared electronic voting unsafe.
Not, mind you, because of the ease with which election officials might manipulate the outcome, but because of potential “interference from the outside”.
There it is – the role of the Kremlin-approved “opposition” to back up Putin’s narrative, whatever that might be.
That is why they are welcomed in the parliament and on the ballot and are happy to take away a meagre 4% of the vote.
Welcome to Russia’s token “opposition” – remember that the actual opposition are either in prison, in exile or dead.
Read more on Sky News:
Putin claims election victory
Who is in the Russian president’s inner circle?
Putin: How a KGB agent rose to the top of the Kremlin
Putin will continue to tell his people more of the same about their place in history and the necessity of his war in Ukraine.
Russian nuclear weapons are big and terrifying, Russian society is one big happy family, the wartime economy is doing well, the multipolar future is here to stay – just keep the faith in this eternal war with the West.
Many, perhaps most, Russians will absorb that messaging because it is compellingly told and pervasive, but there is also a sense of unease vis-a-vis the war, an uncertainty and an unwillingness to look far ahead or plan for the future.
“We have very high inflation, salaries have not increased, we’ve become poorer, there is less choice in terms of consumer goods and household items in general because companies have left so we just engage in piracy now,” one voter in Moscow told our team on Sunday, a succinct precis of the sanctions impact felt at least in the big cities.
“It has become almost impossible to visit certain countries and families and friends. We have really rolled back and become less civilised.”
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How Russians protested against the election
Now that Putin has overcome this election “hurdle” there will be no literal barrier beyond a hit to his approval ratings should he call for a further mobilisation.
That possibility remains in the back of people’s minds, but Russia’s fortunes in Ukraine would have to worsen considerably if Putin were to take that step and he’ll likely desist if he can.
Until Ukraine can get the weaponry and ammunition it needs to fight back more effectively, Putin will remain buoyed by the kind of confidence we’ve seen in recent weeks.
“If a year ago Putin focused on protecting ‘our land’ and resorted to defensive, even sacrificial rhetoric, now he sounds victorious speaking not on behalf of a geopolitical victim but on behalf of a ‘colossal, all-conquering force’,” writes Tatyana Stanovaya, of R.Politik, on the social media platform Telegram.
“This is explained by the growing faith of the Russian leadership in Russia’s military advantage in the war with Ukraine, and a sense of the weakness and disunity of the West.”
Much will depend on events outside of Russia this year – arms to Ukraine, the future incumbent in the White House and the cohesion, or lack of it, of the West.
Those are, one must hope, outside of Putin’s control even if the West must shore up its democracies to make sure that that is indeed the case.
What is certain is that Putin has relentless staying power, a conclusion as clear before this “election” as it is now.
They rose to their feet in ecstatic surprise, shouting “heydar, heydar” – a Shia victory chant.
This was the first public appearance of their supreme leader since Israel began attacking their country.
He emerged during evening prayers in his private compound. He said nothing but looked stern and resolute as he waved to the crowd.
He has spent the last weeks sequestered in a bunker, it is assumed, for his safety following numerous death threats from Israel and the US.
His re-emergence suggests a return to normality and a sense of defiance that we have witnessed here on the streets of Tehran too.
Earlier, we had filmed as men in black marched through the streets of the capital to the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, whipping their backs with metal flails.
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Defiance on streets of Tehran
This weekend they mark the Shia festival of Ashura as they have for 14 centuries. But this year has poignant significance for Iranians far more than most.
The devout remember the betrayal and death of Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday. We filmed men and women weeping as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.
The armies of the Caliph Yazid killed the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad in the seventh-century Battle of Karbala.
Shiite Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates, of resistance against oppression and injustice.
But more so than ever in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.
The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here among people and officials.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.
Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.
Death to Israel chants resounded outside the mosque in skies which were filled for 12 days with the sounds of Israeli jets. There is a renewed sense of defiance here.
One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”
A woman was dismissive about the US president. “I don’t think about Trump, nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”
Pictures on billboards nearby draw a line between Imam Hussein’s story and current events. The seventh-century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.
Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.
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Officially Iran is projecting defiance but not closing the door to diplomacy.
Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.
“We are very strong in defence and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times,” she said.
“We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”
But there is also a hint of conciliation: Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News that back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.
Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. That proved unfounded, the government is in control here.
For many Iranians, it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.
To the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, they march, whipping their backs with metal flails.
It is an ancient ceremony going back almost 14 centuries – the Shia commemoration of Ashura.
But this year in particular has poignant significance for Iranians.
The devout remember the betrayal and death of the Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday.
Iranians gather ahead of Ashura
We filmed men and women weep as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.
The grandson of the Prophet Muhammad was killed by the armies of the Caliph Yazid in the seventh century Battle of Karbala.
Shia Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates – of resistance against oppression and injustice. But more so than ever this year, in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.
The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here by people and officials.
Men and women weeped as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine
Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.
Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America, which it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.
“Death to Israel” chants resounded outside the mosque in skies that for 12 days were filled with the sounds of Israeli jets.
There is a renewed sense of defiance here.
One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression, even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”
‘I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him,’ one woman tells Sky News
A woman was dismissive about the US president.
“I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”
Pictures on billboards nearby link Imam Hussein’s story and current events. They show the seventh century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.
Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.
Officially Iran is projecting defiance, but not closing the door to diplomacy.
Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.
“We are very strong in defence, and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times. We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”
Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani said it would be a mistake for Israel to attack again
But there is also a hint of conciliation. Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.
Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. Those hopes proved unfounded. The government is in control here.
For many Iranians it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.
World
Two security workers injured after grenades thrown at aid site, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation says
Two American security workers in Gaza were injured after grenades were thrown during food distribution in Khan Younis, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has said.
In a statement, the US and Israeli-backed aid group said a targeted terrorist attack was carried out at one of its sites in southern Gaza on Saturday morning.
The two Americans injured “are receiving medical treatment and are in stable condition,” it said, adding that the delivery of aid was “otherwise successful” and that “no local aid workers or civilians were harmed”.
GHF didn’t say exactly when the incident happened but claimed Hamas was behind the attack, adding: “GHF has repeatedly warned of credible threats from Hamas, including explicit plans to target American personnel, Palestinian aid workers, and the civilians who rely on our sites for food.
“Today’s attack tragically affirms those warnings.”
Later, the aid group posted a picture on social media, which it said showed “fragments of a grenade packed with ball bearings” that was used in the attack.
Asked by Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, whether the two injured individuals were responsible for handing out aid or were responsible for providing security, GHF said they were “American security workers” and “two American veterans.”
The aid group did not provide specific evidence that Hamas was behind the attack.
The US and Israeli-backed group has been primarily responsible for aid distribution since Israel lifted its 11-week blockade of the Gaza Strip in May.
Read more:
Hamas gives ‘positive’ response to ceasefire proposal
Outcry as Israeli strike hits school
94 killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza, health staff say
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It comes after Sky News analysis showed GHF aid distributions are associated with a significant increase in deaths in Gaza.
According to Gaza’s health ministry, 600 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid from GHF sites as of 3 July, which charities and the UN have branded “death traps”.
Meanwhile, the Associated Press has reported that Israeli-backed American contractors guarding GHF aid centres in Gaza are using live ammunition and stun grenades.
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Contractors allege colleagues ‘fired on Palestinians’
GHF has vehemently denied the accusations, adding that it investigated AP’s allegations and found them to be “categorically false”.
Israel’s military added that it fires only warning shots and is investigating reports of civilian harm.
It denies deliberately shooting at any innocent civilians and says it’s examining how to reduce “friction with the population” in the areas surrounding the distribution centres.
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