NHL playoff watch: Predicting the Stars’ perfect postseason path

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1 year ago

March 20, 2024

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Tim Kavanagh, ESPN.comMar 20, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
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This space is typically used to set up matchups on the evening’s NHL schedule that will have an impact on the playoff races, and there’s been great fodder this season due to the number of teams still fighting for those spots (particularly in the East). But with an extraordinarily light slate tonight, let’s take a look a bit further down the road for one of the teams in action.

The Dallas Stars are among the handful of clubs for which Stathletes projects a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. Put another way, it would take an almost-unprecedented collapse for them to miss the postseason. Some chose them as their preseason Stanley Cup favorite this season, and the matchups will matter in their quest to live up to those expectations.

Within the mighty Central Division, the Stars are projected for 108.7 standings points, in third behind the Colorado Avalanche (109.6) and Winnipeg Jets (109.9). So yeah, it’s close. But if those projections hold, it will be a first-round matchup against the Avs for Dallas. The bad news for Dallas is that Colorado has won all three games the clubs have played this season by a cumulative score of 16-8; the good (or at least, optimistic) news is that all three were in the pre-Chris Tanev era. The final matchup in their regular-season series is April 7 (10 p.m. ET, ESPN).

What if Colorado gets the Central’s No. 1 seed, and Winnipeg is Dallas’ first-round opponent? The scenario is almost exactly reversed, as the Stars have won all three matchups against the Jets by a cumulative score of 9-3. The final game for these two is April 11 (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+).

If the Stars go on a heater and win the division, they’ll take on one of the West wild cards, most likely the Nashville Predators (projected for 98.8 points), Vegas Golden Knights (97.9) or Los Angeles Kings (97.7). Among those three, the Stars’ most desirable opponent based on past results is the Kings, as Dallas has won all three matchups this season (by a cumulative score of 13-3). The Stars have split the four games against the Predators, and they’ve lost all three to the Golden Knights — although there are two caveats for the Vegas results:

One of the losses was in overtime, another in a shootout.
The most recent of the three games was Dec. 9, and much has changed since then.

So the ideal scenario for the first two rounds is the Stars winning the Central and taking on the Kings, followed by a second-round series against the Jets (or drawing Winnipeg in the first and L.A. in the second). The charge up the standings continues tonight with a game against the Arizona Coyotes (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+).

As we traverse the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Detroit Red Wings
A2 Florida Panthers vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers

Western Conference

C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
C2 Colorado Avalanche vs. C3 Dallas Stars
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

Wednesday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
Arizona Coyotes at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings, 10 p.m. (TNT)

Tuesday’s scoreboard

Boston Bruins 6, Ottawa Senators 2
Detroit Red Wings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
New Jersey Devils 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Rangers 2
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 1
Colorado Avalanche 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Nashville Predators 8, San Jose Sharks 2
Edmonton Oilers 3, Montreal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Vancouver Canucks 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Minnesota Wild 4, Anaheim Ducks 0
Los Angeles Kings 6, Chicago Blackhawks 0

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 97
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 12
Points pace: 114
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 114
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 19.4%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 8.2%
Tragic number: 19

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 75
Next game: @ VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 13

Metropolitan Division

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 112
Next game: @ BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 93
Next game: @ CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 52.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 61.6%
Tragic number: 29

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 88
Next game: @ DET (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 49%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 6.8%
Tragic number: 20

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ DAL Friday)
Playoff chances: 5.7%
Tragic number: 21

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 69
Next game: @ COL (Friday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 8

Central Division

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 112
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 111
Next game: s. CBJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. ARI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 100
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 96%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ LA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 16.7%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 4.8%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 74
Next game: @ DAL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 43
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 51
Next game: @ ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 88.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 95
Next game: vs. SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 90.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ VAN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 3.6%
Tragic number: 20

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.4%
Tragic number: 19

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 58
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 47
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

p — clinched Presidents’ Trophy
y — clinched division
x — clinched playoff berth
e — eliminated from playoff contention

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12

Points: 43
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 27

* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.

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Now in LF, Altuve asks off Astros’ leadoff spot

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1 hour ago

April 29, 2025

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Now in LF, Altuve asks off Astros' leadoff spot

Associated Press

Apr 28, 2025, 07:16 PM ET

HOUSTON — Jose Altuve asked manager Joe Espada to move him out of the leadoff spot and into the second hole for the Houston Astros. The reason? He wanted more time to get to the dugout from left field.

Altuve is playing left for the first time in his career after spending his first 14 MLB seasons at second base. “I just need like 10 more seconds,” he said.

The 34-year-old Altuve made the transition to the outfield this season after the trade of Kyle Tucker and the departure of Alex Bregman shook up Houston’s lineup.

Jeremy Peña was in the leadoff spot for Monday night’s game against Detroit. Altuve didn’t suggest that Peña be the one to take his leadoff spot.

“I just told Joe that maybe he can hit me second some games at some point, and he did it today,” Altuve said. “I just need like that little extra time to come from left field, and he decided to put Jeremy [there].”

Peña entered Monday hitting .255 with three homers and 11 RBIs. He hit first in Sunday’s 7-3 win over Kansas City — with Altuve getting a day off — and had two hits and three RBIs.

Along with giving him a little extra time to get ready to bat, Altuve thinks the athletic Peña batting leadoff could boost a lineup that has struggled at times this season.

“Jeremy is one of those guys that has been playing really good for our team,” Altuve said. “He’s taking really good at-bats. He’s very explosive and dynamic on the bases, so when he gets on base a lot of things can happen. Maybe I can bunt him over so Yordan [Alvarez] can drive him in.”

Altuve is a nine-time All-Star. The 2017 AL MVP is hitting .274 with three homers and nine RBIs this season.

Espada said he and Altuve often share different ideas about the team and that they had been talking about this as a possibility for a while before he made the move.

“He’s always looking for ways to get everyone involved and he’s playing left field, comes in, maybe give him a little bit more time to get ready between at-bats, just a lot of things that went into this decision,” Espada said. “He’s been around, he knows himself better than anyone else here, so hopefully this could create some opportunities for everyone here and we can score some runs.”

Sports

Manfred to rule on Rose ban after Trump meeting

Published

4 hours ago

April 28, 2025

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Manfred to rule on Rose ban after Trump meeting

Associated Press

Apr 28, 2025, 04:52 PM ET

NEW YORK — Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred said he discussed Pete Rose with President Donald Trump at a meeting two weeks ago and he plans to rule on a request to end the sport’s permanent ban of the career hits leader, who died in September.

Speaking Monday at a meeting of the Associated Press Sports Editors, Manfred said he and Trump discussed several issues, including concerns over how immigration policies could impact players from Cuba, Venezuela and other foreign countries.

Manfred is considering a petition to have Rose posthumously removed from MLB’s permanently ineligible list. The petition was filed in January by Jeffrey Lenkov, a Southern California lawyer who represented Rose prior to the 17-time All-Star’s death at age 83.

“I met with President Trump two weeks ago … and one of the topics was Pete Rose, but I’m not going beyond that,” Manfred said. “He’s said what he said publicly. I’m not going beyond that in terms of what the back and forth was.”

Trump posted on social media Feb. 28 that he plans to issue “a complete PARDON of Pete Rose.” Trump posted on Truth Social that Rose “shouldn’t have been gambling on baseball, but only bet on HIS TEAM WINNING.”

It’s unclear what a presidential pardon might include. Trump did not specifically mention a tax case in which Rose pleaded guilty in 1990 to two counts of filing false tax returns and served a five-month prison sentence.

The president said he would sign a pardon for Rose “over the next few weeks” but has not addressed the matter since.

Rose had 4,256 hits and also holds records for games (3,562) and plate appearances (15,890). He was the 1973 National League MVP and played on three World Series winners.

An investigation for MLB by lawyer John M. Dowd found Rose placed numerous bets on the Cincinnati Reds to win from 1985-87 while playing for and managing the team. Rose agreed with MLB on a permanent ban in 1989.

Lenkov is seeking Rose’s reinstatement so that he can be considered for the Hall of Fame. Under a rule adopted by the Hall’s board of directors in 1991, anyone on the permanently ineligible list can’t be considered for election to the Hall. Rose applied for reinstatement in 1997 and met with Commissioner Bud Selig in November 2002, but Selig never ruled on Rose’s request. Manfred in 2015 denied Rose’s application for reinstatement.

Manfred said reinstating Rose now was “a little more complicated than it might appear on the outside” and did not commit to a timeline except that “I want to get it done promptly as soon as we get the work done.”

“I’m not going to give this the pocket veto,” Manfred said. “I will in fact issue a ruling.”

Rose’s reinstatement doesn’t mean he would automatically appear on a Hall of Fame ballot. He would first have to be nominated by the Hall’s Historical Overview Committee, which is picked by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America and approved by the Hall’s board.

Manfred said he has been in regular contact with chairman Jane Forbes Clark.

“I mean, believe me, a lot of Hall of Fame dialogue on this one,” Manfred said.

If reinstated, Rose potentially would be eligible for consideration to be placed on a ballot to be considered by the 16-member Classic Baseball Era committee in December 2027.

Manfred said he doesn’t think baseball’s current ties to legal sports betting should color views on Rose’s case.

“There is and always has been a clear demarcation between what Rob Manfred, ordinary citizen, can do on the one hand, and what someone who has the privilege to play or work in Major League Baseball can do on the other in respect to gambling,” Manfred said. “The fact that the law changed, and we sell data and/or sponsorships, which is essentially all we do, to sports betting enterprises, I don’t think changes that.

“It’s a privilege to play Major League Baseball. As with every privilege, there comes responsibilities. One of those responsibilities is that they not bet on the game.”

Manfred did not go into details on his discussion with Trump over foreign-born players other than to say he expressed worry.

“Given the number of foreign-born players we have, we’re always concerned about ingress and egress,” Manfred said. “We have had dialogue with the administration about this topic. And, you know, they’re very interested in sports. They understand the unique need to be able to go back and forth, and I’m going to leave it at that.”

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Braves activate RHP Anderson, sign OF Rosario

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7 hours ago

April 28, 2025

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Braves activate RHP Anderson, sign OF Rosario

Field Level Media

Apr 28, 2025, 01:52 PM ET

It was old faces in familiar places for the Atlanta Braves on Monday after they activated right-hander Ian Anderson to the active roster and signed outfielder Eddie Rosario to a major league contract.

In corresponding moves, outfielder Jarred Kelenic was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett, while right-hander Davis Daniel was optioned to Triple-A after Sunday’s game.

Both Anderson and Rosario emerged as 2021 postseason heroes in Atlanta as the Braves went on to win the World Series.

Anderson, who was claimed off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday, went 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA in eight postseason starts for the Braves over the 2020 and 2021 postseasons.

In the 2021 World Series, Anderson famously pitched five no-hit innings in Game 3 to lead Atlanta to a 2-0 victory over the Houston Astros. The Braves defeated the Astros in six games.

Anderson, who turns 27 Friday, was traded by the Braves to the Angels on March 23 for left-hander Jose Suarez. He struggled badly with his new club, going 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA in seven relief appearances. He allowed 17 hits and seven walks in just 9⅓ innings.

Rosario, 33, signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers in February and played in two games with the club, going 1-for-4. He was designated for assignment and became a free agent when Shohei Ohtani returned from the paternity list just over a week ago.

Rosario was the 2021 National League Championship Series MVP, when he powered the Braves past the Dodgers with three home runs, nine RBIs and a 1.647 OPS in six games.

Over parts of 11 seasons, Rosario is a career .261 hitter with 169 home runs and 583 RBIs in 1,123 games with five different clubs, including five seasons with the Minnesota Twins (2015-20) and four with the Braves (2021-24).

Kelenic, 25, was batting .167 with two home runs in 23 games and is a career .211 hitter with 49 home runs and 156 RBIs in 406 games with the Seattle Mariners (2021-23) and Braves.

Daniel, 27, made his only appearance for the Braves on Sunday with a scoreless inning and has appeared in 10 games (six starts) over the past three seasons with a 4.95 ERA.