October election? This was no slip of the tongue from Jeremy Hunt

Published

1 year ago

March 20, 2024

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What was Jeremy Hunt up to?

Was he aiming to snatch the headlines from his Labour rival Rachel Reeves on the evening of her weighty and well-trailed lecture on the economy?

Almost certainly.

Was he also aiming to tease Labour MPs about an October election when he and the prime minister are really planning for November?

Quite possibly.

Was he trying to calm Tory MPs’ jitters worried about a June or July election after Rishi Sunak ruled out 2 May?

No doubt.

And was he hoping to reassure his backbenchers that he and the PM have a credible economic strategy – “sticking to the plan” – including falling inflation and lower interest rates?

Of course.

Politics live: Chancellor appears to let slip when election might be

Mr Hunt’s tantalising “if the general election is in October” aside to the House of Lords’ economic affairs committee was surely no accident. No way was it a slip of the tongue.

The 14 peers who sit on their lordships’ equivalent of the Treasury select committee in the Commons include some wise and experienced old timers: an ex-chancellor and two former Treasury mandarins.

Okay, so Norman Lamont’s record as John Major’s chancellor from 1990 to 1993 was hardly an unmitigated triumph. Remember Black Wednesday?

But Terry Burns was a distinguished chief economic adviser and permanent secretary at the Treasury in the Thatcher, Major and early Blair and Brown period.

And Andrew Turnbull, the mandarin’s mandarin, was also Treasury permanent secretary under Mr Brown and then Sir Tony’s cabinet secretary.

So Mr Hunt knew exactly what he was doing.

Apart from the soap opera of Tory plots against the PM, the date of the general election is all MPs are talking about and parliament’s constant guessing game at present.

On 7 March, the day after his budget that dismayed Tory backbenchers, the chancellor told Kay Burley on Sky News the “working assumption” was that the election would be in the autumn.

That was after the PM said his “working assumption” was that it would take place in the second half of the year.

Now, the PM and the chancellor appear to be narrowing it down.

But if it is to be October, when exactly?

Mr Hunt told their lordships an election in October would make it “very, very tight” to fit in a spending review.

That, along with the expectation that he’ll deliver a tax-cutting pre-election budget in September – fulfilling Mr Sunak’s pledge to cut the basic rate of income tax from 20p to 19p before the election – suggests the second half of the month.

Forget Thursday 31 October. What prime minister is going to risk “nightmare on Halloween” headlines? Not even the accident-prone Mr Sunak, surely?

We can also rule out the previous Thursday, 24 October, which clashes with the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Samoa, requiring the presence of both King Charles and whoever is PM then.

Which leaves, realistically, 10 or 17 October. And the current betting at Westminster is that if it is October, then the 17th is favourite.

Mr Hunt has presumably known that for some time. Even if his prime motive at the Lords committee was indeed to snatch the evening headlines from Ms Reeves.

Politics

Crypto industry is not experiencing regulatory capture — Attorney

Published

4 hours ago

April 19, 2025

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Crypto industry is not experiencing regulatory capture — Attorney

Brandon Ferrick, general counsel at Douro Labs, said that the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) openness to public input on crypto policy and their roundtable discussions are positive signs that the crypto industry is not currently experiencing regulatory capture.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Ferrick identified signs of regulatory capture including, a public-to-private sector revolving door of employees, the same roster of attendees at regulatory events, and special treatment given to certain crypto projects. However, Ferrick added:

“The reason why I am not worried today is that a lot of what you’re seeing from the regulatory side, like the SEC, for example, is totally open, public, and there are available opportunities to have conversations with the regulators about changing or thinking about the regulatory structures.”

“[The SEC] has a public portal where you can just submit written commentary on your thoughts for the crypto regulatory environment, and you can schedule meetings with them,” the attorney continued.

As the crypto industry becomes more integrated with the traditional financial system and engages state regulators more, some analysts and executives are worried that the industry is experiencing regulatory capture that will skew incentives and politicize the burgeoning crypto sector.

SEC hosts several roundtable discussions on crypto policy

The SEC has hosted several crypto roundtable discussions and panels, with more slated in the coming months — a sharp contrast from the agency’s regulation-by-enforcement approach under former SEC chairman Gary Gensler.

On March 21, the regulatory agency hosted its first crypto roundtable, which featured crypto industry executives, SEC officials, and even opponents of the crypto industry.

Former SEC official John Reed Stark was highly critical of the industry and opposed comprehensive regulatory reform, arguing that digital assets must comply with existing securities laws.

The SEC’s April 11 roundtable focused on trading rules and included a different set of panelists, including representatives from Uniswap and Coinbase.

The next SEC panel will occur on April 25 and focus on establishing guidelines for crypto custodians and other firms holding crypto on behalf of customers.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Politics

UK firm buys $250M Bitcoin as analysts eye quiet Easter weekend

Published

7 hours ago

April 19, 2025

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UK firm buys 0M Bitcoin as analysts eye quiet Easter weekend

Whales and institutions are increasing their Bitcoin holdings ahead of Easter, as market analysts predict a weekend with less volatility after two weeks of heightened volatility driven by escalating global trade tensions.

London-based investment firm Abraxas Capital acquired 2,949 Bitcoin (BTC) worth more than $250 million during the four days leading up to April 19.

In the latest transaction, the firm bought over $45 million worth of Bitcoin from Binance on April 18, according to crypto intelligence firm Lookonchain, citing Arkham Intelligence data.

UK firm buys $250M Bitcoin as analysts eye quiet Easter weekend — *Source: Arkham Intelligence,* *Lookonchain*

The investment came days after Michael Saylor’s Strategy bought $285 million worth of Bitcoin at an average price of $82,618 per BTC, as the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holders signal continued confidence in Bitcoin, amid global tariff uncertainty.

Large Bitcoin investors, or whales, continue accumulating, absorbing over 300% of Bitcoin’s yearly issuance as exchanges continue losing coins at a historic pace, Cointelegraph reported on April 18.

Crypto analysts eye quiet Easter weekend after weeks of turmoil

Despite continued accumulation from whales and institutions, volatility concerns were raised by significant movements from the medium-term Bitcoin cohort, which holds coins for an average of three to six months.

Over 170,000 Bitcoin entered circulation from the medium-term cohort, a development that may signal “imminent” crypto market volatility, according to pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet.

“The effect of this metric on LTF moves is overstated as large onchain movement of coins hardly ever affects weekend price action since it’s not on liquid markets or CEX markets,” analysts at Bitfinex exchange told Cointelegraph, adding:

“It is important to note that funding rates remain relatively flat currently. Moreover, US markets are closed as we have a long weekend for Easter, so volatility could be suppressed barring headlines from the White House.”

Marcin Kazmierczak, chief operating officer of RedStone Oracles, added that the recent movements may be operational transfers, not necessarily signs of imminent selling pressure.

Still, concerns over weekend volatility have been amplified over the past two weeks after the Mantra (OM) token’s price collapsed by over 90% on Sunday, April 13, from roughly $6.30 to below $0.50, triggering market manipulation allegations and highlighting “critical” liquidity issues in the industry.

Two weeks ago, on April 6, Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Sunday, as investor concerns spread from a record-breaking $5 trillion sell-off from the S&P 500, its largest on record.

The correction was caused by Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading availability, which made it the only large liquid asset available for de-risking on Sunday, Blockstream CEO Adam Back told Cointelegraph.

“On a weekend, there’s not much volume. So you have a worse risk of rapid sort of flash crashes or flash dips that get filled in again,” he said.

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29

Politics

Crypto, DeFi may widen wealth gap, destabilize finance: BIS report

Published

10 hours ago

April 19, 2025

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Crypto, DeFi may widen wealth gap, destabilize finance: BIS report

The growing adoption of cryptocurrencies may pose risks to the traditional financial system and exacerbate wealth inequality, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

In an April 15 report, the BIS warned that the number of investors and amount of capital in crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) have “reached a critical mass,” with investor protection becoming a “significant concern for regulators.”

The size of the crypto market signals that authorities should be worried about the “stability of crypto over and above the role it may have for TradFi and the real economy,” the report states, highlighting the role of stablecoins, which the BIS said have “become the means through which participants transfer value within crypto.”

The report calls for targeted stablecoin regulation on stability and reserve asset requirements that will guarantee the redemption of stablecoins for US dollars during “stressed market conditions.”

The report comes two weeks after the US House Financial Services Committee passed the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy, or STABLE Act, with a 32–17 vote on April 2.

Cryptocurrencies, Banking, Banks, Central Bank, Bitcoin Price, Investments, Bitcoin Regulation, United States, BIS, Stablecoin, Cryptocurrency Investment, Bitcoin Adoption — *Source:* *Financial Services GOP*

The STABLE Act aims to create a clear regulatory framework for dollar-denominated payment stablecoins, emphasizing transparency and consumer protection.

On March 13, the GENIUS Act, short for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, passed the Senate Banking Committee by a vote of 18–6. The act aims to establish collateralization guidelines and require full compliance with Anti-Money Laundering laws from stablecoin issuers.

Crypto may exacerbate wealth gap

The BIS also raised concerns about how crypto markets may worsen income inequality by enabling larger investors to capitalize on the emotions of less sophisticated retail participants, as seen during the FTX collapse in 2022.

“As prices tumbled in 2022, users actually traded more,” the BIS report noted. “Most disturbingly, large bitcoin holders (“whales”) were selling as ordinary retail investors (“krill”) were buying.” It added:

“This implies that the crypto market, which is often presented as an opportunity for inclusive growth and financial stability, can be a means for redistributing wealth from the poorer to the wealthier.”

The report concludes that DeFi and TradFi have similar underlying economic drivers, but DeFi’s “distinctive features,” like “smart contract and composability,” present new challenges that need proactive regulatory interventions to “safeguard financial stability, while fostering innovation.”