Inside the cracks at the center of the MLBPA — and what’s next
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
IN THE IMMEDIATE aftermath of the Zoom call Monday night that threw the Major League Baseball Players Association into chaos, a veteran player, stunned at the mutiny that had unfolded in front of him, said to himself, “What the f— was that?” Over nearly three hours, he said, he had witnessed years of pent-up frustration from player leaders unleashed on MLBPA leadership. And one moment at the end of the meeting burned itself into his mind.
Earlier in the afternoon, a coordinated effort by players had unfolded to replace Bruce Meyer, the union’s deputy executive director and lead labor negotiator, with Harry Marino, the lawyer who had organized minor league players who eventually would become members of the MLBPA. Near the end of the call, the matter had been put to an informal poll, and a significant majority of the dozens of players in attendance raised their hands in favor of change. Faced with his hand-picked No. 2 receiving a no-confidence vote from a large portion of the union’s executive board, MLBPA executive director Tony Clark told the group that it was his decision whether Meyer would be removed from his job.
He was not wrong. Union rules grant Clark, not the players, the right to hire and fire. But the sentiment espoused by Clark in that moment roiled players throughout the game Tuesday and Wednesday, enveloping the union with the sort of palace intrigue typically reserved for a Sunday night HBO series. The veteran was among a large swath of players troubled by Clark’s comment after hearing him say consistently, over more than a decade running the MLBPA, that players run the union. The fallout cast questions across the rank and file not just about Meyer’s murky future but Clark’s long-term viability as executive director.
The call ended with no clarity on the future of union leadership. Backers of Clark have since rallied around him, attempting to whip support from players for what they believe will be a showdown for control of the MLBPA. While Clark could remain in charge of the union he has guided for more than a decade, the power play has damaged him considerably — and player leadership does wield the power to unilaterally vote him out of the position. If they do, Marino, the 33-year-old who blindsided the baseball establishment with a daring power play, could find himself not as Clark’s deputy but in the top role himself, though he’ll have to work to sway player leaders who were left in the dark about the move and know little about him.
Interviews with more than two dozen people involved in the fight — union officials, the outsiders seeking to unseat them, players on the union’s executive board and throughout the league and influence-wielding agents — offered a portrait of a union in flux amid an offseason of lower-than-expected spending on free agents. The cores of each side have been firmly established: union leadership, those skeptical of Marino and powerful agent Scott Boras advocating for status quo, while outspoken major leaguers, all of the minor league player leaders and influential player agents back the ouster of Meyer and, perhaps by extension, Clark.
Long trumpeted as the strongest union in America, the MLBPA is facing a seminal choice that will help guide the game’s future. With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire Dec. 1, 2026, the MLBPA has plenty of time to rebuild solidarity and come equipped for its quinquennial clash with MLB. Which direction it takes might depend on which party can sell the players on its vision.
“WHY NOW?” another player leader asked Tuesday. MLB’s 2024 season was hours from beginning when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres faced off in Seoul, and here stood the union in the throes of internal war.
There were several reasons for the urgency, but one was simply the calendar. With the end of spring training near, those who wanted change feared that players would lose interest in union politics during the season. It happened six years ago, when a group of players frustrated with a historically slow free agent market tried to form a coalition to remove Clark, the former All-Star first baseman who became the first ex-player to run the union when he took over in December 2013 after the death of Michael Weiner. It fizzled out, and Clark — who had led negotiations on the collective bargaining agreement in 2016 widely panned by players — pledged to hire help.
In came Meyer, a veteran attorney who had worked for the players’ associations of the three other major men’s professional sports. He arrived with a bulldog attitude and desire to fight the league and win back much of what the union had lost financially in 2016. Almost immediately Meyer rubbed MLB the wrong way — a point he wore with pride.
Meyer refused to accede when MLB wanted to cut players’ pay in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and commissioner Rob Manfred wound up implementing a 60-game season when the sides couldn’t strike a return-to-play deal. The hostility amplified after the 2021 season, when MLB locked the players out for 99 days. The eventual collective bargaining agreement won players a $20 million boost on the lowest threshold of the luxury tax, a 25% raise on the minimum salary, a $50 million bonus pool for arbitration-eligible players, a draft lottery to prevent tanking and incentives to not keep rookies in the minor leagues to manipulate their service time. While the executive subcommittee — one filled with Boras clients in five of the eight slots — voted 8-0 against the deal, a large majority of players supported it.
Two years later, though, the seeds of disillusionment that sprouted in those negotiations are in full bloom. After two robust free agencies following the latest CBA, the market this year slowed dramatically, from $3.9 billion guaranteed last year to $2.9 billion, and left veteran players without jobs on the eve of the season. Players have whispered about the lack of a clearly defined plan to outfox MLB’s enormous and effective labor relations unit, as well as the large salaries and travel expenses of the union’s leaders, which have only grown in recent years. The most recent defeat for some players was the San Francisco Giants’ release of J.D. Davis, the veteran infielder who received just $1.15 million of his $6.9 million salary because the collective bargaining agreement didn’t guarantee deals won in salary arbitration cases.
On top of all that, a narrative about a working relationship between Meyer and Boras has taken root. No firm evidence buttressed the notion, and both parties denied it, but among players and particularly the agents who competed with Boras, the perception hardened into a reality, though one that longtime executive subcommittee member Andrew Miller said he did not see.
“I wish it never got to this point of back and forth,” Miller told ESPN. “I was not always on the same page with Bruce, but he’s been a professional. I believe what he’s been quoted as saying about it not being true. It’s not something I ever saw that was worrying to me.”
The thought of some of those seeking change: Taking out Meyer could wound Boras, who is in the midst of an offseason when the free agent markets collapsed for numerous stars he represented. If Boras was vulnerable, Meyer could be the proxy to attack him.
If any of this change was going to happen, it needed to do so quickly. And Marino and his supporters believed he was the one to spur it on.
A left-handed reliever, Marino had spent two seasons in the early 2010s in the Arizona and Baltimore organizations. The paltry salaries paid to minor league players appalled him, and after going to law school at the University of Virginia, he left a law-firm job to attempt what no one previously had the gumption to try: unionizing minor league players. As the executive director of Advocates for Minor Leaguers, Marino married moral arguments with social-media savvy to affect change, securing minor league players housing paid for by teams. The work caught the eye of the MLBPA, which provided funding to the group, and Clark’s support of Advocates’ efforts — both offering advice to Marino or talking with players — paved a partnership that would ultimately imperil his job.
With minor leaguers prepared to unionize, the MLBPA offered to bring them under its umbrella and form a minor league unit alongside its big league group. It would be one of Clark’s signature achievements as executive director. He had toiled for seven years in the minor leagues. He lived the grind. He knew that unionization would drastically improve the lives of more than 5,500 players.
In early September 2022, the MLBPA sent out union-authorization cards. Soon thereafter, MLB voluntarily recognized the minor league unit, and Clark told The Wall Street Journal about Marino: “His consistency to the cause is as high as anyone that I’ve been around. It comes through loud and clear in how he fights for players and how he’s been willing to engage on any and all of the issues that are front and center. … [I]f this was going to become a possibility, Harry is someone you want to be a part of the equation.”
The minor league unit received 34 seats — one player from each team and four subcommittee members — to join the 38 major league players on the executive board. It bewildered some union officials, who worried that giving 47% of voting power to players who hadn’t spent a day in the major leagues could lead to a disastrous outcome. Especially if someone like Marino mobilized the group.
In recent weeks, he did. Marino, who joined the MLBPA as an assistant general counsel following the unionization efforts, left the union in July 2023, three months after negotiating the first minor league collective bargaining agreement. Though he had clashed with Meyer, with whom he worked on the agreement, and other union officials, he remained on the radar of a group of major league player leaders impressed by his work with minor leaguers.
They reached out to him earlier this year with a plea: Come fix the union. The coalition seeking change spanned players present and past. Former players such as Daniel Murphy, an executive subcommittee member in 2020, backed new leadership, telling ESPN on Wednesday: “Whether they get uprooted from their positions is not up to me, but I think guys are finally seeing the truth.”
With widespread minor league support, Marino knew he’d need a wider swath of current big leaguers. If he could map out a compelling vision, his supporters believed, MLB players were bound to join a campaign to replace Meyer. During spring training, Marino held secret meetings with player representatives in Arizona and Florida, avoiding Boras clients out of fear that they would kibosh his efforts. In recent days, he outlined his strategy in a one-page document distributed to some players and obtained by ESPN. In it, he criticized the MLBPA’s “mediocre staff and lack of clear bargaining strategy,” said it had “unproductive relationships with both the agent community and the league” and denounced its “inexcusable spending habits.” He pledged to “shift power back to the members” through “informed recommendations backed by data and reasoning” and “trim the waste and excess,” writing: “Our job is to make you rich, not the other way around.”
Marino also laid out a plan for his first 250 days as part of union leadership. He would hire an outside firm to perform an audit on the MLBPA’s finances, conduct a survey of players to learn about their issues with the union and bargaining priorities, and begin a nationwide search for senior leadership and a collective bargaining team “under supervision of the Executive Board.” At the MLBPA’s board meeting in November 2024, the document said, Marino would introduce the new hires and present goals and strategy for bargaining, propose a new budget and offer a plan for better communication.
His consortium grew, and by Saturday, a majority of player leaders — major leagues and minor leagues combined — expressed privately they were in favor of swapping Meyer for Marino. Marino took that information to Clark and proposed a plan: Marino would take over bargaining and build a team of veteran labor lawyers. He believed Clark would see the binary nature of the offer: Clark could say yes, and theoretically unify the group, but to say no could throw the union into conflict and put himself at risk. Clark asked for time to think.
On Sunday, a text chain among major league player leaders asking whether they wanted to replace Meyer with Marino — created to form a record of players’ votes — confirmed Marino had a majority. A day later, after union officials finished their final in-person meeting on their 30-team spring tour, Marino’s camp reached out to Clark and reaffirmed that they wanted to work with him as the executive director and Marino his deputy. Shortly thereafter, Clark called for the Zoom meeting.
It soon became clear that Marino’s read on the situation — that Clark would acquiesce and dismiss Meyer — was wrong. Clark backed Meyer, who was also on the call. They listened as players levied complaints on a variety of topics, from the dip in free agent spending to exasperation that some high-ranking players didn’t know that Clark had been given a new five-year contract in November 2022 until reading about it online. Players harped on union leaders’ poor communication.
Other players chimed in about Marino’s hypocrisy on the same subject. His campaign had intentionally left some players — and, by extension, their teams — in the dark. It was antithetical to the solidarity they preached, and the approach by Marino — who asked Clark to be included in the call but was not granted access — particularly bothered some players who were not familiar with Marino. Though Meyer’s support was limited, players asked why the union needed change and how Marino, with minimal experience, would make them better.
By Monday night, reports of the meeting circulated among players. On Tuesday morning, it dominated conversations in clubhouses across the game. A range of emotions revealed themselves: livid, confused, emboldened. Some player representatives knew about Marino’s play and didn’t inform their clubhouses. Others, left in the dark, didn’t have answers to questions asked by teammates. Officials from both parties spent the day on the phone, making their case to players. Boras went public, shredding Marino to The Athletic.
“If you have issues with the union and you want to be involved with the union, you take your ideas to them,” he said. “You do not take them publicly, you do not create this coup d’etat and create really a disruption inside the union. If your goal is to help players, it should never be done this way.”
To those convinced the Boras-Meyer link was real, the comments served as affirmation, further harming Meyer — and Clark as well — in the eyes of players. While it would be malpractice for the two top officials at the players’ union not to have a relationship with the agent who represents more major league players than any, power struggles often turn dirty, every small thing growing outsized.
Marino wasn’t immune, either. Critics painted him as a Svengali whose power over minor league players carried little weight, even if it would carry votes. They argued that he would bend to MLB and implement a salary cap. That he’s tied to CAA and WME, agencies whose clients have among the strongest voices, in the same way Meyer is to Boras. That his approach was an act of aggression, unseemly, in defiance of history and protocol.
In a statement, Marino told ESPN: “I have spent the entirety of the past two weeks in meetings and phone calls with Major League Players. From those conversations, three things have become clear. First, Players want to know how their hard-earned money is being spent. They deserve a full audit of the MLBPA’s financials. Assuming the staff has nothing to hide, this should not be a problem. Second, Players have lost confidence in the MLBPA’s current collective bargaining team and want to move in a new direction.
“Third, some Players have questions about me and what that new direction might look like. That’s totally fair. While the Players’ desire for change has been simmering for some time, over the past week it has come to the surface in a manner unexpected to everyone, myself included. As always, I will make myself available to speak to any Player who wants their voice heard and their questions answered.”
THE POSSIBILITY OF a Clark-Marino pairing running the union together died Monday. Perhaps it was never feasible, a half-measure, but that reality forces players into the sort of uncomfortable position that could conceivably save Clark. Because for all the warts players suggest the union has, all the dissatisfaction percolating, they like him personally. They liked him enough to extend his contract through 2027. And they might like him enough to let him see it through.
“The MLBPA has been and always will be fully transparent with its Players,” Clark said Wednesday in a statement to ESPN. “We recently negotiated two collective bargaining agreements on behalf of our members: a Major League agreement that made tangible Player gains in the face of an ownership lockout, and a first ever agreement on behalf of Minor League Players. An attempted takeover coordinated by a disgruntled former employee does nothing to change those facts.
“The question before us now is how we build from here. Those are conversations that we are having, and will continue to have with our membership.”
When the politicking settles and votes on the future of the MLBPA are taken, it will come down to the numbers. Though the board consists of 72 seats, currently 11 minor league representative positions are unfilled, cutting into Marino’s count for the potential removal of Clark. It’s unlikely Clark will be able to poach any of the 23 minor leaguers who do have a say — even if he makes the case that they would not be union members without him having pushed for a minor league unit — which leaves eight votes to give a majority to Marino’s side. If Clark were deposed and Marino made a play for the job, though, coming in to run the union on the strength of barely a quarter of big league clubhouses would leave him weak from the moment he started.
Knowing that — and knowing if he ties himself to Meyer, Clark could conceivably write his own end — Clark’s maneuver could be a repeat of 2018: Agree to dismiss Meyer or accept his resignation, then conduct a search for a new deputy executive director, only this time with more help from the executive board. At this point, it might be the clearest path to his survival. It is also not one Clark has made five days after Marino’s first meeting with him, indicating a bond with Meyer.
Clark started to do damage control Tuesday, telling players that his words about the decision to keep or fire Meyer being his did not reflect his true feelings that the will of players runs the union. How that lands — whether players believe Clark is genuine or simply a man trying to save his job — will color his attempt to survive in the coming days. The executive subcommittee met Wednesday night as well.
Next will be more phone calls, more canvassing, more impassioned rhetoric. Clarity will come soon enough. In an email sent to players Tuesday afternoon obtained by ESPN, Clark told players to reach out to him with any questions and that they will reconvene as a group in the coming days.
“The focus of this union,” he wrote, “has always been, and always will be, the Players.”
For every college football team, the season often can swing on one person, position group or situation. If this one thing comes together as planned — or even better than expected — the season could be a big success. If it doesn’t go well, the team’s season could go south.
Though the quarterback position often fills that role, especially when there’s a new player at the helm, other concerns can be shoring up a weakness from last year, incorporating a key transfer or having an important player return from injury.
For the teams in our post-spring Power Rankings, the stakes are particularly high. Spots in the College Football Playoff are on the line, and failure could put coaches on the hot seat.
We asked our college football reporters to provide the biggest X factor — the one thing that could make or break the season — for each of our Top 25 teams.
X factor: QB Drew Allar‘s big-game performances
Penn State enters what appears to be an all-in season, and Allar has the ingredients to be the top NFL quarterback prospect for the 2026 draft. But his play under the brightest of lights has left something to be desired. He hasn’t beaten Ohio State or Michigan, he delivered some good moments in a Big Ten championship game loss to Oregon but was still intercepted twice, and threw the crucial interception in a CFP semifinal loss to Notre Dame. Penn State has made the necessary investments around Allar, who will share a backfield with probably the nation’s top running back tandem. The time has come for the senior to be at his best in the biggest moments. If he delivers, Penn State will have a real chance at its first national title since 1986. — Adam Rittenberg
X factor: Run defense
Though the Tigers have had standout players across their front seven over the past few years, that group has fallen short in one particular area — rush defense — and it became glaring last season. The truth is, its decline began when Wes Goodwin took over as defensive coordinator. In each of his three seasons, the rush defense has gotten worse, culminating in what became a major issue in 2024. Clemson gave up 160.6 yards on the ground, and there isn’t much more proof needed as to how poorly the Tigers attempted to stop the run than their playoff loss to Texas, when the Longhorns rushed for 292 yards. Clemson tackled poorly and often took bad angles. This season Tom Allen takes over after leading one of the best rushing defenses in the country at Penn State. Expect this area to be vastly improved, returning to the standard Clemson set under Brent Venables. — Andrea Adelson
X factor: Middle of the defensive line
Texas has been loaded the past two seasons, but one of the reasons it made back-to-back CFP semifinal trips were the big men in the middle of the defensive line. Giant, athletic space-eaters such as T’Vondre Sweat, Vernon Broughton, Byron Murphy II and Alfred Collins made it tough to push the Longhorns around and freed up others to make plays when they weren’t. But this offseason, Texas had to go searching for big men, landing Syracuse freshman All-American Maraad Watson (6-foot-3, 313 pounds), Cole Brevard (6-3, 333) from Purdue, North Carolina’s Travis Shaw (6-5, 342), and 6-5, 299-pound German Hero Kanu, who arrives from Ohio State. Five-star freshman Justus Terry (6-5, 268) is already on campus and will look to be in the mix along with sophomore Alex January (6-5, 308), who appeared in 11 games last season. The Longhorns have star edge rushers in Colin Simmons, Trey Moore, and do-everything linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. to bring pressure. But opening against Ohio State, then hitting an SEC schedule with so many new faces up front will be a key area for Texas. — Dave Wilson
X factor: WR Colbie Young
Georgia hopes it upgraded its receiver corps by adding Zachariah Branch (USC) and Noah Thomas (Texas A&M), and heralded freshman C.J. Wiley. The return of Young, a senior, might end up being equally important. Young played sparingly last season and was suspended while facing criminal charges involving an alleged domestic violence incident. He reached a plea deal with prosecutors and returned to the team. He’s an outside threat that excels at making contested catches. “Yeah, he gives you problems outside,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. “You’re going out there and there’s not a lot of defense you can have for a guy that gets the ball at the highest point and goes up.” — Mark Schlabach
X factor: TE Max Klare
The Buckeyes landed the top tight end in the transfer portal in Klare, who arrived in Columbus from Purdue. Klare caught 51 passes for 685 years and four touchdowns during his sophomore season, easily leading the Boilermakers in those three categories. The 6-foot-4, 240-pound Klare figures to give the Buckeyes a dynamic target over the middle of the field, nicely complementing receiver Carnell Tate and All-American wideout Jeremiah Smith. Klare’s presence should also give Ohio State’s new starting quarterback — whether it’s Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz — a playmaking security blanket early in the season. With Smith set to command attention on the outside, Klare should find plenty of favorable matchups operating inside. — Jake Trotter
X factor: QB Garrett Nussmeier
Quite simply, Nussmeier will determine how far LSU goes in 2025. Recent years have been good to the returning LSU starter — Jayden Daniels being the latest example — and Nussmeier’s stats from last season compare to those of Daniels from 2022 before he won the Heisman Trophy the following year. Brian Kelly did a fantastic job in the transfer portal bolstering the roster, including getting Nussmeier plenty of weapons and added protection. If there were a situation in which a good player becomes great in 2025, it feels as if it’s in Baton Rouge with Nussmeier helping Kelly achieve what he came to LSU to do. — Harry Lyles Jr.
X factor: QB CJ Carr
Carr hasn’t attempted a pass in a game yet at Notre Dame, but the quarterback is facing lofty expectations heading into the 2025 season. Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, is still locked in a battle with Kenny Minchey for the starting job. Last year’s backup, Steve Angeli, transferred to Syracuse. After redshirting last year because of an elbow injury in his throwing arm, Carr performed well in spring practice. He appears to be the player to beat. The Saline, Michigan, native was ranked the No. 2 pocket passer in the Class of 2024, according to ESPN. With running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price returning, along with a good offensive line, the Irish might not need much from Carr. But he’ll have to avoid turnovers and make good decisions while running the offense. — Mark Schlabach
X factor: QB Dante Moore
Dan Lanning’s team is so deep and well rounded that it’s hard to say the Ducks’ success this season will hinge entirely on Moore. And yet, since the Ducks’ lineage of quarterbacks (Justin Herbert, Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel) has buoyed Oregon’s offense in recent years, Moore has some big shoes to fill. The 20-year-old sophomore spent a year learning under Gabriel and offensive coordinator Will Stein after getting thrown into the fire as a true freshman starter during his lone season at UCLA. This time, the stage will be much bigger and the pressure much higher. — Paolo Uggetti
X factor: QB Ty Simpson
Simpson has waited his turn and had chances to win the quarterback job at Alabama, and now it’s his time unless he takes a step back during preseason camp, which is something nobody at Alabama expects to happen. In his fourth year in the program, Simpson will be starting anew with first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, but he has the multidimensional skills Grubb likes in his quarterback. Getting off to a good start will be critical for Simpson and the Tide. — Chris Low
X factor: LB Siale Esera
After playing in only five games in each of the past two seasons, Esera’s career hasn’t gotten off to the start many were expecting from the Provo native. But now that he is fully healthy, that should change. Esera emerged from spring ball as a starting linebacker and has drawn rave reviews from both head coach Kalani Sitake and defensive coordinator Jay Hill. At 6-foot-3, 245 pounds, he has both the size and athleticism to become a difference-maker in the Big 12 — and that’s the expectation. — Kyle Bonagura
X factor: OLB Gabe Jacas
Jacas might not be a national name just yet, but he has the skill set to propel Illinois and contend for the sport’s biggest defensive honors. The 6-foot-3, 275-pound Jacas led Illinois in sacks (8), tackles for loss (13), forced fumbles (3) and quarterback hurries (10) last fall, and bypassed the NFL for another chance with an Illini squad that returns most of its core players from a 10-win team. Illinois probably needs to develop more pass-rush punch around Jacas, who was the team’s only consistent threat off the edge last season. The Illini also struggled a bit against good passing offenses. But if Jacas can defeat double-teams, or free up others to pressure quarterbacks, Illinois should have a chance at its first CFP appearance. — Rittenberg
X factor: Wide receivers beyond Jordyn Tyson
Despite sitting out the last two games of the season, Tyson caught 75 passes in 2024. All other Arizona State wide receivers combined for 61 receptions. It was certainly impressive that the Sun Devils managed two great performances at the end of the season without Tyson, but the limitations of the ASU receiving corps ramped up the degree of difficulty for quarterback Sam Leavitt and do-everything running back Cam Skattebo. With Skattebo now in the NFL, some combination of receivers Malik McClain and Derek Eusebio, and incoming transfers Jalen Moss (Fresno State), Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama) will need to come up big to make sure Leavitt and Tyson have the help they need. — Bill Connelly
X factor: WR Nyck Harbor
No player on South Carolina’s roster looks the part quite like Harbor. He’s 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, built like DK Metcalf and is an absolute rocket. But that speed has been a bit of his downfall through two seasons in Columbia, where he has spent spring as part of the Gamecocks’ track team. Call it a distraction — that’s debatable — but his development on the football field hasn’t been quite as fast as the Gamecocks might have hoped. Harbor has started 13 games over two seasons but caught only 38 passes and three touchdowns. This spring, he focused solely on football, and he says he’s poised for a breakthrough. “Going through a whole year totally committed to football, I’ve never had that before,” Harbor said. “It’s done wonders in my ability to understand the game and build off last year. I’m going to be a whole different player by the time fall rolls around.” — David Hale
X factor: WR Chase Sowell
Sowell steps into a wide receiver room that lost its top two players — Jayden Higgins (second-round pick by the Houston Texans) and Jaylin Noel (third-round pick by the Texans) — leaving a massive production gap on the outside. Sowell was a reliable option at East Carolina the past two seasons — 34 catches, 678 yards in 2024; 47 catches, 622 yards in 2023 — and is expected to offer the Cyclones a much-needed big-play threat. Sowell should benefit from the experience of quarterback Rocco Becht, who will be starting for a third straight season in Ames. — Bonagura
X factor: TE RJ Maryland
For sheer NFL potential, there might not be a better prospect at SMU than Maryland. The tight end has racked up 17 touchdown catches over his first three seasons, but last year was cut short after he was injured in a win over Stanford, sitting out the rest of the season. Maryland should be back to 100% by the start of the 2025 season, and his return comes at a critical time for SMU’s passing game, as six of the other seven Mustangs to reel in at least 200 receiving yards last season are gone. A healthy Maryland creates a clear-cut mismatch and forces defenses to adjust each week. He could be in line for a breakthrough season — and if that happens, the Mustangs’ offense should follow suit. — Hale
X factor: Defensive coordinator Shiel Wood
It really can’t be overstated that this defense has to be better. Texas Tech has been one of the biggest storylines of the college football offseason when it comes to roster building, largely because of the Red Raiders’ willingness to spend money. Wood comes in after tenures as defensive coordinator at Tulane in 2023 and Houston in 2024. On paper, this is a much more talented group. Statistically, it can’t be much worse. But we won’t know until the opening kickoff. — Lyles
X factor: QB Fernando Mendoza
Can Mendoza, a transfer from Cal, take another jump in 2025? Among all the variables that could potentially lift — or let down — the Hoosiers’ in Year 2 under coach Curt Cignetti, none feel more important than this. Mendoza became a beacon of a spirited (if ultimately underwhelming) 6-7 campaign for the Bears last fall, when he completed 68.7% of his passes (12th best nationally among QBs with at least 100 passing attempts) in his first full season as a starter. Mendoza has big shoes to fill after Kurtis Rourke motored Indiana’s record-setting offense to the nation’s second-best points per game tally (41.3) in 2024. But Mendoza should be playing behind a sturdier offensive line in 2025, and there are plenty of playmakers within an intriguing Hoosiers skill position group led by veteran receiver Elijah Sarratt. If Mendoza can find another gear operating a more favorable situation this fall, it could go a long way toward pulling Indiana back into playoff contention. — Eli Lederman
X factor: QB Avery Johnson
The K-State program is obviously in sturdy shape, having won between eight and 10 games for four straight years under Chris Klieman. But when you sign a big-time, blue-chip quarterback such as Johnson (ESPN’s No. 3 dual-threat QB in the 2023 class), you’re giving yourself a shot at a higher ceiling than usual. Johnson’s first season as a starter in 2024 was all over the map — the good was very good, the bad was awfully worrisome — which is how these things usually go. But now he’s entering his junior season, and he has a super explosive skill corps with weapons such as running back Dylan Edwards, receiver Jayce Brown and transfers Caleb Medford (New Mexico) and Antonio Martin Jr. (Southeastern Louisiana). If Johnson is ready to live up to his hype, Kansas State fans could really enjoy 2025. — Connelly
X factor: Health of QB DJ Lagway
Quarterback play at any level of football is more valuable than it has ever been, and a big reason expectations are growing in Gainesville is because of No. 2 for the Gators. Lagway had some shoulder soreness in the offseason that carried over from last year, so he was limited in spring practice and played only five snaps in the spring game. He resumed throwing in late April, and it seems Florida has been cautious in hopes of having him ready to go this fall for a healthy season. — Lyles
X factor: QB Bryce Underwood
Underwood’s high-profile commitment flip from LSU to Michigan was among the biggest recruiting coups yet in the NIL era. The Wolverines also brought in Mikey Keene through the transfer portal. Keene has thrown for 8,245 career yards and 65 touchdowns during stints at Fresno State and UCF. But Underwood has the talent that could turn Michigan into a playoff contender. That’s a lot to ask of a true freshman. But Underwood isn’t an ordinary freshman. The top-rated pocket passer in the 2025 class, Underwood won two state titles in Michigan and went 50-4 as the starter at Belleville High School, with 38 straight victories from Week 4 of his freshman season to the state title game of his junior year. The Wolverines struggled to throw the ball last year. Underwood could immediately change that in 2025 — if he wins the job. — Trotter
X factor: Defensive secondary
Headed into last season, the X factor for Miami was a thin secondary, and that unit ended up having a role in costing the Hurricanes a spot in the ACC championship game. Now, that group should be considered a strength — and the X factor again. If this unit plays the way it is projected to, the Hurricanes will have fixed the biggest issue on their team from a year ago. Miami brought in highly touted transfers Charles Brantley (Michigan State), Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin) and Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State), returns FWAA freshman All-American OJ Frederique Jr., and signed several freshmen and others through the portal to build depth. Without question, Miami is far more talented at this position, and that could be the difference between playing for a championship. — Adelson
X factor: Running game
There might not be a better one-two punch at tailback in the country than Louisville’s duo of Isaac Brown and Duke Watson. Among Power 4 backs with at least 60 carries last season, Watson led the nation by averaging 8.9 yards per rush. Brown was fourth at 7.11. Over Louisville’s final eight games of the season, the duo combined for 1,264 rushing yards, 121 receiving yards and 16 scrimmage touchdowns while forcing 43 missed tackles. Plus, the Cards’ O-line should be among the ACC’s best, creating a blueprint for one of the most explosive ground attacks in the country. — Hale
X factor: Running game
The Aggies’ offense will go as far as their running backs take it. Last season, Le’Veon Moss broke out, averaging 6.3 yards a carry with 10 touchdowns, and had been responsible for about a quarter of the offense’s entire production when he was lost for the season because of a knee injury against South Carolina in November. The Aggies, 7-1 going into that game, lost that one, then finished 8-5 without Moss, losing to Auburn, Texas and USC by a combined 16 points to limp to the finish. Freshman Rueben Owens, a star recruit, also missed most of last season because of a foot injury. With Moss and Owens back, along with Amari Daniels, who added 700 yards and eight TDs last year, suddenly A&M has an embarrassment of riches at the position. With the Aggies returning a strong offensive line, offensive coordinator Collin Klein will be able to take some pressure off quarterback Marcel Reed‘s development along with a new group of wide receivers. — Wilson
X factor: WR Cayden Lee
Ole Miss enters the 2025 season with a first-year starter at quarterback in Austin Simmons. Much has been made about the transfers Lane Kiffin brought in at receiver, specifically with De’Zhaun Stribling and Harrison Wallace III. But Lee comes in off of a solid sophomore season, with 874 yards and two touchdowns on 57 receptions. Adding talent in the portal is good, no doubt, but there is value in guys who have (literally) been there and done that. — Lyles
X factor: QB John Mateer
The Sooners swung big in the transfer portal and brought in Mateer (along with his offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle) from Washington State to bring some life to an offense that finished 97th nationally in scoring offense (24 points per game) and 113th in total offense (313 yards per game) last season. Mateer can beat defenses with his arm and legs. He was the only FBS quarterback last season to pass for more than 3,000 yards (3,139) and rush for more than 800 yards (826), and he accounted for 44 touchdowns (29 passing and 15 rushing). If he plays at a similar level in Norman, the Sooners should be one of the most improved teams in the SEC. — Low
You know it as soon as the college football schedule drops. The game that’s circled, the player you love to hate, the rival coach who seems to especially delight in destroying your team’s season.
We’re getting into the dog days of summer, with the only relief being the crisp autumn days of the college football season are rapidly approaching. But that means the enemies are lining up at the gates.
Today, we’re doing recon on where each post-spring top 25 team stands and who stands in their way. These are each teams’ potential future villains, the coaches, players and teams that have the chance to make the whole season go south. — Dave Wilson
1. Penn State: Ryan Day
Penn State coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have been unable to get over the hump against Ohio State, especially since Day took over in Columbus. The Nittany Lions have dropped six straight to Day, culminating with last year’s defeat, as fourth-ranked Ohio State rallied to topple the third-ranked Nittany Lions in State College 20-13. This season, Day will have a new starting quarterback and inexperience on both sides of the ball coming off last year’s national championship. Penn State will counter with one of the most experienced teams in the country, headlined by veteran quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Franklin even hired away Day’s defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles. The Nittany Lions travel to Columbus on Nov. 1 in a showdown that figures to carry major playoff implications. — Jake Trotter
Clemson’s arch enemy for this season is obvious: Sellers. The Tigers watched the South Carolina quarterback dodge defenders, break tackles and keep one play after another alive last season in a stunning Gamecocks win that nearly derailed Clemson’s season. Clemson will be looking for revenge, of course, but new defensive coordinator Tom Allen will be more focused on finding answers for the elusive Sellers. There are lofty expectations at Clemson this season, and the Tigers don’t necessarily need a win over South Carolina to achieve them, but nobody will sleep soundly in the state if the 2025 defense coughs up another win to its biggest rival. — David Hale
3. Texas: Oklahoma
In Week 1, the Longhorns get a rubber match against an Ohio State team that eliminated Texas from the playoff last season, but the results of this game leave a lot of runway for either team to get back into this year’s postseason. Yet, there is no bigger test every year for Texas than Oklahoma in Dallas. This one’s a bit of a mystery, with the Sooners bringing in new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer, who played high school football in the Dallas area, from Washington State. The new-look Sooners could either be a launching point or a big speed bump in the SEC schedule for a Longhorns team with national championship aspirations. — Dave Wilson
4. Georgia: Alabama
The last coach Georgia fans ever wanted to see on the other sideline is doing television. Nick Saban was 5-1 against Kirby Smart, but even with Saban in his first year of retirement last season, Alabama still beat Georgia in a wild 41-34 game in Tuscaloosa the final weekend of September. Georgia has lost nine of the past 10 games in the series and hasn’t beaten Alabama in the regular season since 2007, Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa, when the Mark Richt-coached Bulldogs won 26-23 in overtime. Georgia has vaulted to elite status under Smart, but a second straight loss to DeBoer — especially with this year’s game being played in Athens — wouldn’t sit well with anybody in Athens. — Chris Low
5. Ohio State: Sherrone Moore
Michigan coach Sherrone Moore has become a problem for the Buckeyes. He might not wear the villain outfit quite as well as predecessor Jim Harbaugh did, but Moore’s rise in coaching — as Wolverines offensive line coach, offensive coordinator and now head coach — has coincided with Ohio State’s longest losing streak (four games) to its archrival since 1991. Moore served as acting head coach during Harbaugh’s Big Ten-imposed suspension in 2023, as Michigan punched its ticket to the Big Ten championship game. He then earned the permanent role and pulled off one of the more stunning upsets in the history of The Game in November in Columbus. The story of Moore’s coaching career at Michigan is really just beginning, but he has already demonstrated his ability to win the biggest games. — Adam Rittenberg
6. LSU: Daytime home games
LSU fans have been known to curse day games, especially in the sweltering September heat. It’s at night when Tiger Stadium (and typically LSU’s football team) shines. In 2025, the only SEC home game that LSU will definitely play at night is the league opener against Florida on Sept. 13. Home games against South Carolina and Texas A&M fall into the “flex” window, meaning they could start as early as 3:30 p.m. ET or as late as 8 p.m. ET. Since 2000, LSU is 112-15 in Saturday night home games at Tiger Stadium. Brian Kelly has faced just two nationally ranked SEC opponents in day games at Tiger Stadium and is 1-1. — Low
7. Notre Dame: Miami
No Notre Dame players were alive for the 1988 clash with Miami, and Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman was only 2 years old. But longtime Domers will always view the U as a true villain, and new Miami quarterback Carson Beck, the transfer from Georgia, sparks a range of reactions. Notre Dame scored a signature win in the CFP semifinal at the Sugar Bowl against a Georgia squad that had lost Beck to injury. When healthy, Beck is talented enough to villainize a Notre Dame defense replacing standouts Xavier Watts, Jack Kiser, Rylie Mills and others and appearing in its first game under new coordinator Chris Ash. Early season games are one of the only knocks against Freeman, who has dropped at least one September game in each of his three seasons as Irish coach. Notre Dame needs a strong start with its two most talented opponents — Miami and Texas A&M — leading off the schedule. — Rittenberg
8. Oregon: Ohio State
Is it too simple to say Ohio State? Maybe just Jeremiah Smith after he caught seven passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns in the Rose Bowl drubbing that the Buckeyes put on the Ducks to end their undefeated season? The good news for Dan Lanning & Co. (or bad depending on how you look at it) is that Oregon will not face Ohio State in the regular season this season and a rematch could only occur in the Big Ten title game or in the College Football Playoff. Penn State enters the fray this season as a much-hyped conference contender that the Ducks will have to face and yet it feels like Oregon and Ohio State are still the cream of the crop for the conference and are likely to continue seeing each other on the sport’s biggest stages. — Paolo Uggetti
9. Alabama: Vanderbilt
Remember when Saban won 100 straight games against unranked opponents, the longest such streak in the AP poll era? Now, all of a sudden, the Crimson Tide are 2-3 against their past five unranked foes, a stretch that started with a stunning 40-35 loss at Vanderbilt last season, which came only a week after DeBoer beat No. 2-ranked Georgia in his SEC opener as Alabama’s head coach. It was the first time Alabama had lost to Vanderbilt since 1984. Alabama will get its shot at payback this season on Oct. 4 when Vanderbilt visits Bryant-Denny Stadium. The loss to Vanderbilt a year ago ignited what was the first three-loss regular season for Alabama since 2010. Judging by some of the comments from Alabama players this offseason, nobody will need to remind the Tide when the Commodores are coming to town. — Low
10. BYU: Utah
It’s always Utah. The “Holy War” frequently manages to surprise us. A year ago, BYU was coming off a 5-7 season and Utah was considered the Big 12 favorite. This time, we have a full reversal: The Utes are the ones coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign and the Cougars are ranked the highest of any Big 12 team on this list. (Granted, this ranking doesn’t account for the sudden uncertainty BYU is dealing with at the QB position.) We’ll already have a decent idea of BYU’s capabilities by the time Utah visits Provo in Week 8, but the Holy War could serve as a Big 12 title elimination game, and it will definitely impact the tenor of the season for both teams. It always does. — Connelly
Purdue didn’t generate many highlights in 2024, but it gave Illinois a major scare at Memorial Stadium, erasing a 24-3 deficit to force overtime before falling 50-49. Among the Boilermakers’ stars that day was tight end Max Klare, who recorded his first 100-yard receiving performance, finishing with 133 yards on six catches. Klare, like most of Purdue’s best players, transferred following the team’s coaching change. He landed at Ohio State, which will visit Memorial Stadium on Oct. 11. Illinois certainly will be aware of Klare but also must contain Heisman Trophy contender Jeremiah Smith and several other standout wide receivers, if it wants any chance at knocking off the defending national champions. — Rittenberg
12. Arizona State: Regression
Arizona State had one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of 2024 and returns far more of last year’s production than most. The Sun Devils appear primed for a run at a repeat Big 12 title. The problem: No one repeats in the Big 12. ASU’s biggest archrival could simply be regression to the mean. Among current members, the past six teams to reach the Big 12 championship before 2024 — 2020 Iowa State, 2021 Baylor, 2021 Oklahoma State, 2022 Kansas State, 2022 TCU and 2023 Oklahoma State — went a combined 28-9 in one-score finishes during their title runs. The following seasons, they went a combined 9-22 in such games. ASU went 6-2 in one-score finishes last season. It’s really hard to do that twice in a row, and in the Big 12 it appears impossible. — Connelly
13. South Carolina: LSU
South Carolina has its share of hated rivals — Georgia, Clemson, anyone else who plays “Sandstorm” during timeouts — but as the Gamecocks look to make a playoff run in 2025, enemy No. 1 might well be LSU. The Bayou Bengals have dominated South Carolina over the years, holding an 18-2 all-time record and winning eight straight matchups dating to 1995. More recently, LSU escaped Columbia with a 36-33 win last season in which the Gamecocks blew a four-point lead with less than 2 minutes to play. That loss ultimately cost South Carolina a playoff bid, but the Gamecocks feel certain they’re a far better team than they were then. If they can exact some revenge this time, it’ll be a big step toward reaching those lofty goals. — Hale
14. Iowa State: Kansas State
There’s no such thing as a Week 0 elimination game, but we get the closest thing to it in Dublin to start the 2025 season. The annual (for now) Farmageddon battle between ISU and Kansas State will take place in particularly green pastures this time, and it will pit two preseason top 20 teams with major Big 12 title hopes. Last year, the Cyclones’ defense played a perfect fourth quarter against the Wildcats, allowing just one yard in 12 snaps to win 29-21 and advance to the conference title game. This time, someone will be 0-1 in conference play before Week 1 even arrives. This is about as big a season opener as you could hope for. — Connelly
15. SMU: TCU
SMU was 3-17 against TCU coaches in the Dennis Franchione/Gary Patterson era, then Sonny Dykes won two straight against the Frogs in Dallas. Once he defected for the purple pastures of Fort Worth, he then won his first two against the Mustangs. Last year, however, SMU got its revenge in a 66-42 pummeling of TCU in a game in which Dykes was ejected. This year, the two teams, which have met 103 times, are scheduled for their last Iron Skillet game for the foreseeable future. This one will have some heat. — Wilson
16. Texas Tech: Baylor
Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire got his start in college coaching at Baylor under Matt Rhule and was promoted under Dave Aranda. He left in midseason in 2021 when he got the Tech job. While trying to right the ship in Lubbock, he’s gone 1-2 against Aranda, including a 59-35 home loss last season. Since Mike Leach was fired, the Red Raiders are 5-10 against the Bears, a team they’ll need to eclipse with their big ambitions to sit atop the Big 12. — Wilson
17. Indiana: UCLA
Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers did a great job of retaining players and coaches from a 2024 team that won a school-record 11 games and reached the CFP. But two who got away — a coach and a player — landed with UCLA, which visits Indiana on Oct. 25. New Bruins offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri coached Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke last year and had spent the previous three seasons on Cignetti’s staff at James Madison. He might know the secrets to attacking Indiana’s defense. Defensive back Jamier Johnson transferred from Indiana to UCLA after recording 35 tackles and an interception last fall for the Hoosiers. Johnson, who began his college career at Texas, will be part of a reshaped UCLA secondary. — Rittenberg
18. Kansas State: Iowa State
As mentioned above, it’s all about the season opener against Iowa State. It will be the first opportunity for quarterback Avery Johnson and K-State to prove that last year’s all-or-nothing offense has matured a bit. The Wildcats averaged 37.6 points in wins and only 15.8 in losses. They scored TDs on 75% of red zone drives in wins and 42% in losses. They committed more turnovers in the four losses (nine) than in the nine wins (seven). You could almost say that this means K-State’s biggest archrival is K-State. Regardless, Week 0 is enormous. Turnovers and later-down failures cost it dearly against Iowa State last season, and it gets an immediate opportunity to right one of 2024’s wrongs. — Connelly
19. Florida: Georgia
Florida has plenty of teams it considers rivals, but only one on the schedule this season has beaten the Gators four years in a row. That would be Georgia, which has absolutely dominated them since Kirby Smart took over the program in 2016. Smart is 7-2 against Florida, and just like that record, has finished ahead of Florida in the SEC standings seven times. We all know the Gators closed last season strong with big wins over LSU and Ole Miss, but the true litmus test for where this program is — and whether it can return to elite status under coach Billy Napier — is the Georgia game. — Adelson
20. Michigan: Ohio State
Even though the Wolverines have won four straight in the series, Ohio State remains Michigan’s archvillain for obvious reasons. The Buckeyes rattled off eight straight wins before Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh turned the tide in 2021 with the first of the four straight victories. Coach Sherrone Moore salvaged an up-and-down, first full season with a stunning 13-10 victory over Ohio State in Columbus last year. Much of that Ohio State national championship team has moved on to the NFL. But the postgame flag-plant fracas at the Horseshoe last year reinforced why this bitter rivalry has never carried more vitriol for either side. The last thing the Wolverines want this season is to watch Ohio State return the favor by planting its flag on the Block M at the Big House. — Trotter
21. Miami: Syracuse
Georgia Tech is not on the schedule this year or that would be the slam dunk choice. We could go with the obvious “traditional arch nemesis” Notre Dame, which is visiting South Florida for the first time since 2017. But there is another team that gets to wear the villain hat, if only for this season: Syracuse. That’s right, the team that beat Miami 42-38 in the 2024 regular-season finale to keep the Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game visits Hard Rock Stadium on Nov. 8. While both rosters have turned over since that game, the head coaches remain the same and there might be some added fuel to the fire. — Adelson
22. Louisville: Kentucky
In 2022, Louisville was 10-1 and favored against rival Kentucky. The Cardinals lost. In 2021, they were 7-4 and lost. It was an all-too-familiar story. Since 2016, Louisville has lost as a favorite against its rival three times — often sullying otherwise impressive seasons. Last year, the Cardinals had no such worries as they beat up on the Wildcats, who were slogging through a down season, but Jeff Brohm & Co. know the history too well to assume that will be the start of a trend. There are tougher and bigger games on Louisville’s schedule this season, but none that will mean more than beating those hated Cats. — Hale
23. Texas A&M: Steve Sarkisian
Sarkisian has done a masterful job reloading Texas to meet its potential. Last year, he took the Longhorns into Kyle Field and spoiled the Aggies’ chances of getting into the SEC championship game, and this year, A&M visits Austin for the first time since 2010 where Arch Manning hysteria dominates the headlines and the Longhorns will be seeking a coronation for a playoff run. Sarkisian, an avowed fan of college rivalries and traditions, will look to push all the right buttons to ignite his team. — Wilson
24. Ole Miss: Mississippi State
Don’t get anybody in Oxford started on those “dreaded” cowbells clanging away from fans of the “school down south.” That school being bitter rival Mississippi State, whose former coach, Dan Mullen, used to refer to Ole Miss as the “school up north.” Either way, nobody in the SEC is particularly fond of the Mississippi State cowbells, in no way a banned artificial noisemaker. Yes, that’s a joke. But to Ole Miss fans, they would rather hear nails scratching on a chalkboard. The good news for the Rebels is that they’ve lost only once in the past five games between the schools but will get a heavy dose of the cowbells this Nov. 28 in Starkville. — Low
25. Oklahoma: Texas
In the Wishbone era, and then once again after Bob Stoops took over then ceded way to Lincoln Riley, the Oklahoma quarterback position made college football kings. In recent years, Landry Jones, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams and Dillon Gabriel all put up huge numbers. But the Sooners have fallen back a little and Texas is rolling into the Cotton Bowl with its own football royalty in Arch Manning. Oklahoma needs to right the ship, and all eyes will be on Dallas and where the program stands in the SEC era. — Wilson
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