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For some reason which no-one can quite remember, when economists talk about interest rates they invariably find themselves referring to species of birds.

They call those who are broadly in favour of lower interest rates “doves”. Those who are keen on higher borrowing costs are “hawks”.

Analysts in the City of London draw up diagrams of the nine members of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, denoting how many of which bird there are at each meeting.

Money latest: Reaction to Bank of England’s interest rate decision

Those who invariably lean towards higher rates are perma-hawks or uber-hawks and those on the other side are perma-doves; an announcement which surprises in one direction is “dovish” or “hawkish” and so on and so forth.

At the last meeting there were two hawks on the committee (Catherine Mann and Jonathan Haskel, who both voted for an increase in rates), and one dove (Swati Dhingra, who voted for a cut). Two hawks versus one dove. The rest of the committee voted to leave rates on hold and that was that.

This time around the hawks fled the tower (if that is the appropriate terminology), with both Mann and Haskel voting not to increase rates but to leave them on hold. That leaves one dove.

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In other words, in the Kremlinology of interest rates, all of a sudden an interest rate cut is looking that bit closer. Right now markets reckon it could come as soon as June, and some economists think there’s an outside chance of it arriving in May. It’s just a question of how quickly the neutrals turn dovish.

The pound fell slightly after news of the vote (8-1 in favour of holding interest rates at 5.25%).

Read more:
Bank of England keeps interest rate at 5.25% but cut moves closer

And all of this silliness about birds belies a more straightforward, less avian, story. Inflation – the main thing the Bank is targeting – is dropping.

This doesn’t mean, as you’ll already know, that prices themselves are falling; they remain stubbornly higher than they were a few years ago. However they are at least rising less quickly, and that is what the Bank cares about.

Come April, inflation could even be down to the Bank’s 2% target.

Other central banks around the world are also poised (the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank) to cut rates and some (the Swiss National Bank) have already done so. And like many birds, the Bank of England tends to move with the rest of the monetary flock.

All of which is to say, it might have looked as if nothing happened today. And in one sense that’s true. Like a swan gliding across the water, the Bank seems on the surface to be doing very little.

But beneath the surface the legs are kicking, manoeuvring and preparing the ground for lower interest rates. And that’s quite enough bird analogies for one day.

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City financier Kolade joins ranks of Channel 4 chair contenders

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City financier Kolade joins ranks of Channel 4 chair contenders

A leading financier and Conservative Party donor is among the contenders vying to chair Channel 4, the state-owned broadcaster.

Sky News has learnt from Whitehall sources that Wol Kolade has been shortlisted to replace Sir Ian Cheshire at the helm of the company.

Mr Kolade, who has donated hundreds of thousands of pounds to Tory coffers, is said by Whitehall insiders to be one of a handful of remaining candidates for the role.

A recommendation from Ofcom, the media regulator, to Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy about its recommendation for the Channel 4 chairmanship is understood to be imminent.

Mr Kolade, who heads the private equity firm Livingbridge, has held non-executive roles including a seat on the board of NHS Improvement.

He declined to comment when contacted by Sky News on Monday.

His candidacy pits him against rivals including Justin King, the former J Sainsbury chief executive, who last week stepped down as chairman of Ovo Energy.

Debbie Wosskow, an existing Channel 4 non-executive director who has applied for the chair role, is also said by government sources to have made it to the shortlist.

Sir Ian stepped down earlier this year after just one term, having presided over a successful attempt to thwart privatisation by the last Tory government.

The Channel 4 chairmanship is currently held on an interim basis by Dawn Airey, the media industry executive who has occupied top jobs at companies including ITV, Channel 5, and Yahoo!.

The race to lead the state-owned broadcaster’s board has acquired additional importance since the resignation of Alex Mahon, its long-serving chief executive.

It has since been reported that Alex Burford, another Channel 4 non-executive director and the boss of Warner Records UK, was interested in replacing Ms Mahon.

Ms Mahon, who was a vocal opponent of Channel 4’s privatisation, is leaving to join Superstruct, a private equity-owned live entertainment company.

The appointment of a new chair is expected to take place by the autumn, with the chosen candidate expected to lead the recruitment of Ms Mahon’s successor.

The Department for Culture, Media and Sport declined to comment on the recruitment process.

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Premier League club Brentford to sell stake at £400m valuation

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Premier League club Brentford to sell stake at £400m valuation

The owner of Brentford Football Club has clinched a deal to sell a minority stake in the Premier League side to new investors at a valuation of roughly £400m.

Sky News has learnt that an agreement that will involve current owner Matthew Benham offloading a chunk of his holding to Gary Lubner – the wealthy businessman who ran Autoglass-owner Belron – is expected to be announced as early as Tuesday.

Matthew Vaughn, the Hollywood film-maker whose credits include Layer Cake and Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels, is also expected to invest in Brentford as part of the deal, The Athletic reported last month.

Further details of the transaction were unclear on Monday night, although one insider speculated that it could ultimately see as much as 25% of the club changing hands.

If confirmed, it would underline the continuing interest from wealthy investors in top-flight English clubs.

FA Cup winners Crystal Palace have seen a minority stake being bought by Woody Johnson, the New York Jets-owner, in the last few weeks, with that deal hastened by the implications of former shareholder John Textor’s simultaneous ownership of a stake in French club Lyon.

Sky News revealed in February 2024 that Mr Benham had hired bankers at Rothschild to market a stake in Brentford.

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Under Mr Benham’s stewardship, it has enjoyed one of the most successful transformations in English football, rising from the lower divisions to the top division in 2021.

It has also moved from its long-standing Griffin Park home to a new stadium near Kew Bridge.

This summer is proving to be one of transition, with manager Thomas Frank joining Tottenham Hotspur and striker Bryan Mbeumo the subject of persistent interest from Manchester United.

Brentford did not respond to a request for comment on Monday night, while a spokesman for Mr Lubner declined to comment.

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Economists say the cost of living crisis is over – here’s why many households disagree

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Economists say the cost of living crisis is over - here's why many households disagree

Talk to economists and they will tell you that the cost of living crisis is over.

They will point towards charts showing that while inflation is still above the Bank of England’s 2% target, it has come down considerably in recent years, and is now “only” hovering between 3% and 4%.

So why does the cost of living still feel like such a pressing issue for so many households? The short answer is because, depending on how you define it, it never ended.

Economists like to focus on the change in prices over the past year, and certainly on that measure inflation is down sharply, from double-digit levels in recent years.

But if you look over the past four years then the rate of change is at its highest since the early 1990s.

But even that understates the complexity of economic circumstances facing households around the country.

For if you want a sense of how current financial conditions really feel in people’s pockets, you really ought to offset inflation against wages, and then also take account of the impact of taxes.

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That is a complex exercise – in part because no two households’ experience is alike.

But recent research from the Resolution Foundation illustrates some of the dynamics going on beneath the surface, and underlines that for many households the cost of living crisis is still very real indeed.

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UK inflation slows to 3.4%

The place to begin here is to recall that perhaps the best measure of economic “feelgood factor” is to subtract inflation and taxes from people’s nominal pay.

You end up with a statistic showing your real household disposable income.

Consider the projected pattern over the coming years. For a household earning £50,000, earnings are expected to increase by 10% between 2024/25 and 2027/28.

Subtract inflation projected over that period and all of a sudden that 10% drops to 2.5%.

Now subtract the real increase in payments of National Insurance and taxes and it’s down to 0.2%.

Now subtract projected council tax increases and all of a sudden what began as a 10% increase is actually a 0.1% decrease.

Read more:
UK economy figures ‘not as bad as they look’, analysts say
More options than ever for savers to beat inflation

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Will we see tax rises in next budget?

Of course, the degree of change in your circumstances can differ depending on all sorts of factors. Some earners (especially those close to tax thresholds, which in this case includes those on £50,000) feel the impact of tax changes more than others.

Pensioners and those who own their homes outright benefit from a comparatively lower increase in housing costs in the coming years than those paying mortgages and (especially) rent.

Nor is everyone’s experience of inflation the same. In general, lower-income households pay considerably more of their earnings on essentials, like housing costs, food and energy. Some of those costs are going up rapidly – indeed, the UK faces higher power costs than any other developed economy.

But the ultimate verdict provides some clear patterns. Pensioners can expect further increases in their take-home pay in the coming years. Those who own their homes outright and with mortgages can likely expect earnings to outpace extra costs. But others are less fortunate. Those who rent their homes privately are projected to see sharp falls in their household income – and children are likely to see further falls in their economic welfare too.

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