Will Russia dig the US out of a diplomatic hole in latest ceasefire vote?
Is today the moment the world’s top diplomatic body comes together in a collective call for a ceasefire in Gaza? Or will messy, discombobulating and cynical geopolitics get in the way? Will Russia vote for an American resolution?
At 9am New York time (1pm UK time) the United Nations Security Council will vote on a resolution calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Déjà vu? Yes. We’ve been here several times before. Resolutions over the past few months have used different constructions of the same sentences by different countries to find a form of word upon which all sides can agree.
Every time, the United States has been the blocker, vetoing calls for ceasefires because it argued they would only benefit Hamas.
A shift in language
This resolution is different. It was penned by America using its strongest language to date.
The language in the latest circulated draft of the resolution is key. It “…determines the imperative of an immediate and sustained ceasefire to protect civilians on all sides, allow for the delivery of essential humanitarian assistance, and alleviate humanitarian suffering, and towards that end unequivocally supports ongoing international diplomatic efforts to secure such a ceasefire in connection with the release of all remaining hostages”.
Words like “imperative”, “immediate”, “sustained” and “in connection” are vital and do a lot of work in terms of how the text as a whole is received and the success it has in passing.
For America to use “immediate” is significant because it’s a first.
Beyond that, in the context of the hostages, by adding “towards that end” and “in connection with” prior to mentioning the release of all the hostages, the new text loosens the previously tight linkage between an immediate ceasefire and hostage releases. There is ambiguity over whether the ceasefire is conditional on the release of all the hostages. In UN texts, ambiguity can be intentional and helpful.
Humanitarian aid has had to be dropped in via the air to make it into the Gaza Strip. Pic: Reuters
The evolution of this US resolution has happened over several weeks during which America’s diplomats in New York have reluctantly hardened the language in consultation with other members.
A key issue, as ever in this Gaza ceasefire resolution quest, has been the issue of condemning Hamas without condemning Israel – a red line for Arab bloc in the Security Council.
They highlight that the Israel-Palestinian hostilities didn’t begin with the 7 October Hamas attack and they insist on condemnation of Israel’s actions since the incursion.
Another issue in early drafts of the text had been the much-talked-about Israeli-planned assault on Rafah.
Initial American language had said that moving into Rafah could be OK in certain circumstances. Again, this is an issue for the Arab bloc.
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Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
US frustration
That America, of all nations, has penned this text reflects how they have moved on the issue and how frustrated they are with Israel regarding aid access to Gaza.
It is also a hint that the Americans either think the ceasefire talks (between Israel and Hamas through mediators in Doha and Cairo) are coming close to a deal or that they could do with some pressure being placed on them. The Arab bloc around the table will take account of the Palestinian view of the text. Will they find the text too wishy-washy? The text will need to condemn Israel enough to satisfy the Palestinians.
Smoke rises over Gaza over the weekend. Pic: AP
Russia’s position
There is one key thing to watch: Russia. Along with China, as permanent members of the Security Council, they have the power to veto resolutions.
Western diplomats are concerned that Russia may seek to veto this US resolution despite voting for all other ceasefire-demanding resolutions for Gaza. Why would they do that?
The destruction inside the Gaza Strip. Pic: AP
If the Arab bloc and the Palestinians are not happy with the text, and see an advantage in it not passing, they can pressure Russia and China.
But it could be more straightforward or cynical (some would say) than that. Russia may conclude it has no interest in allowing America to dig itself out of its own diplomatic hole.
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From Thursday: ‘Israel needs to do more’
Would the resolution have any impact?
Last important point – even if this resolution does pass, it is not binding. It is a so-called Chapter VI resolution which doesn’t specify measures to enforce compliance.
Only Chapter VII resolutions are considered to be legally binding, and the UN has never tabled an Israel-related Chapter VII resolution, which could authorise economic or military sanctions.
Given that Israel has undermined the United Nations at every turn in this crisis, arguing that the elements within the body have worked against its right to self-defence, it is feasible that they dismiss any successful resolution.
The King has written to former US president Joe Biden after he was diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer, Buckingham Palace said
The monarch, who is undergoing his own treatment for an undisclosed cancer, hosted the 82-year-old for tea and talks at Windsor in July 2023.
Mr Biden was diagnosed on Friday, with tests revealing the cancer had spread to his bones.
The former president posted an image of himself and his wife Jill on X on Monday and wrote: “Cancer touches us all. Like so many of you, Jill and I have learned that we are strongest in the broken places. Thank you for lifting us up with love and support.”
The King and Joe Biden at Windsor Castle in July 2023. Pic: Reuters
The King’s letter comes after British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said he was “very sorry to hear President Biden has prostate cancer”.
“All the very best to Joe, his wife Jill and their family, and wishing the President swift and successful treatment,” he added.
Meanwhile US President Donald Trump said he was “saddened” by the news, adding: “We extend our warmest and best wishes to Jill and the family, and we wish Joe a fast and successful recovery.”
Former US president Barack Obama said: “Michelle and I are thinking of the entire Biden family.
“Nobody has done more to find breakthrough treatments for cancer in all its forms than Joe, and I am certain he will fight this challenge with his trademark resolve and grace. We pray for a fast and full recovery.”
Read more: Biden diagnosed with ‘aggressive’ form of prostate cancer
Barack Obama (right) with Joe Biden at a campaign event in 2022. File pic: Reuters
After a poor debate performance against Mr Trump and amid escalating concerns around his age and fitness to serve, Mr Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential election race and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris.
Ms Harris wrote on X after his diagnosis: “We are keeping him, Dr. Biden, and their entire family in our hearts and prayers during this time.
“Joe is a fighter – and I know he will face this challenge with the same strength, resilience, and optimism that have always defined his life and leadership. We are hopeful for a full and speedy recovery.”
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Mr Biden’s diagnosis: What we know
Former US president Bill Clinton wrote on social media: “My friend Joe Biden’s always been a fighter. Hillary and I are rooting for him and are keeping him, Jill, and the entire family in our thoughts.”
Hillary Clinton, who unsuccessfully ran for president in 2016, said she was “thinking of the Bidens as they take on cancer, a disease they’ve done so much to try to spare other families from”.
Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson said it was “sad news” and his family “will be joining the countless others who are praying” for Mr Biden.
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Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi described Mr Biden as a “great American patriot” and said she was “praying for him to have strength and a swift recovery”.
Mr Trump’s secretary of state, Marco Rubio, wrote on social media that he and his wife were “united in prayer for the Biden Family during this difficult time”.
Politicians have sent messages of support to Joe Biden, who has been diagnosed with prostate cancer.
The 82-year-old, who is the oldest person to ever serve as US president, was described as a “fighter” with people wishing him a “fast and full recovery”.
US President Donald Trump said he was “saddened” by the news, adding: “We extend our warmest and best wishes to Jill and the family, and we wish Joe a fast and successful recovery.”
Former US president Barack Obama said: “Michelle and I are thinking of the entire Biden family.
“Nobody has done more to find breakthrough treatments for cancer in all its forms than Joe, and I am certain he will fight this challenge with his trademark resolve and grace. We pray for a fast and full recovery.”
Read more: Biden diagnosed with ‘aggressive’ form of prostate cancer
Barack Obama (right) with Joe Biden at a campaign event in 2022. File pic: Reuters
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said he was “very sorry to hear President Biden has prostate cancer”.
“All the very best to Joe, his wife Jill and their family, and wishing the President swift and successful treatment,” he added.
After a poor debate performance against Mr Trump and amid escalating concerns for his health, Mr Biden withdrew from the 2024 election and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris.
Ms Harris wrote on X: “We are keeping him, Dr. Biden, and their entire family in our hearts and prayers during this time.
“Joe is a fighter – and I know he will face this challenge with the same strength, resilience, and optimism that have always defined his life and leadership. We are hopeful for a full and speedy recovery.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Mr Biden’s diagnosis: What we know
Former US president Bill Clinton wrote on social media: “My friend Joe Biden’s always been a fighter. Hillary and I are rooting for him and are keeping him, Jill, and the entire family in our thoughts.”
Hillary Clinton, who unsuccessfully ran for president in 2016, said she was “thinking of the Bidens as they take on cancer, a disease they’ve done so much to try to spare other families from”.
Speaker of the US House Of Representatives Mike Johnson said it was “sad news” and his family “will be joining the countless others who are praying” for Mr Biden.
Read more from Sky News:
UK and EU sign reset deal – live updates
Gary Lineker to leave BBC next week
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi described Mr Biden as a “great American patriot” and said she was “praying for him to have strength and a swift recovery”.
Mr Trump’s secretary of state, Marco Rubio, wrote on social media he and his wife were “united in prayer for the Biden Family during this difficult time”.
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