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Is today the moment the world’s top diplomatic body comes together in a collective call for a ceasefire in Gaza? Or will messy, discombobulating and cynical geopolitics get in the way? Will Russia vote for an American resolution?

At 9am New York time (1pm UK time) the United Nations Security Council will vote on a resolution calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Déjà vu? Yes. We’ve been here several times before. Resolutions over the past few months have used different constructions of the same sentences by different countries to find a form of word upon which all sides can agree.

Every time, the United States has been the blocker, vetoing calls for ceasefires because it argued they would only benefit Hamas.

A shift in language

This resolution is different. It was penned by America using its strongest language to date.

The language in the latest circulated draft of the resolution is key. It “…determines the imperative of an immediate and sustained ceasefire to protect civilians on all sides, allow for the delivery of essential humanitarian assistance, and alleviate humanitarian suffering, and towards that end unequivocally supports ongoing international diplomatic efforts to secure such a ceasefire in connection with the release of all remaining hostages”.

Words like “imperative”, “immediate”, “sustained” and “in connection” are vital and do a lot of work in terms of how the text as a whole is received and the success it has in passing.

For America to use “immediate” is significant because it’s a first.

Beyond that, in the context of the hostages, by adding “towards that end” and “in connection with” prior to mentioning the release of all the hostages, the new text loosens the previously tight linkage between an immediate ceasefire and hostage releases. There is ambiguity over whether the ceasefire is conditional on the release of all the hostages. In UN texts, ambiguity can be intentional and helpful.

Humanitarian aid has had to be dropped in via the air to make it into the Gaza Strip. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Humanitarian aid has had to be dropped in via the air to make it into the Gaza Strip. Pic: Reuters

The evolution of this US resolution has happened over several weeks during which America’s diplomats in New York have reluctantly hardened the language in consultation with other members.

A key issue, as ever in this Gaza ceasefire resolution quest, has been the issue of condemning Hamas without condemning Israel – a red line for Arab bloc in the Security Council.

They highlight that the Israel-Palestinian hostilities didn’t begin with the 7 October Hamas attack and they insist on condemnation of Israel’s actions since the incursion.

Another issue in early drafts of the text had been the much-talked-about Israeli-planned assault on Rafah.

Initial American language had said that moving into Rafah could be OK in certain circumstances. Again, this is an issue for the Arab bloc.

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US frustration

That America, of all nations, has penned this text reflects how they have moved on the issue and how frustrated they are with Israel regarding aid access to Gaza.

It is also a hint that the Americans either think the ceasefire talks (between Israel and Hamas through mediators in Doha and Cairo) are coming close to a deal or that they could do with some pressure being placed on them. The Arab bloc around the table will take account of the Palestinian view of the text. Will they find the text too wishy-washy? The text will need to condemn Israel enough to satisfy the Palestinians.

Smoke rises over Gaza over the weekend. Pic: AP
Image:
Smoke rises over Gaza over the weekend. Pic: AP

Russia’s position

There is one key thing to watch: Russia. Along with China, as permanent members of the Security Council, they have the power to veto resolutions.

Western diplomats are concerned that Russia may seek to veto this US resolution despite voting for all other ceasefire-demanding resolutions for Gaza. Why would they do that?

The destruction inside the Gaza Strip. Pic: AP
Image:
The destruction inside the Gaza Strip. Pic: AP

If the Arab bloc and the Palestinians are not happy with the text, and see an advantage in it not passing, they can pressure Russia and China.

But it could be more straightforward or cynical (some would say) than that. Russia may conclude it has no interest in allowing America to dig itself out of its own diplomatic hole.

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From Thursday: ‘Israel needs to do more’

Would the resolution have any impact?

Last important point – even if this resolution does pass, it is not binding. It is a so-called Chapter VI resolution which doesn’t specify measures to enforce compliance.

Only Chapter VII resolutions are considered to be legally binding, and the UN has never tabled an Israel-related Chapter VII resolution, which could authorise economic or military sanctions.

Given that Israel has undermined the United Nations at every turn in this crisis, arguing that the elements within the body have worked against its right to self-defence, it is feasible that they dismiss any successful resolution.

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How much of the White House is Trump demolishing?

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How much of the White House is Trump demolishing?

👉 Follow Trump100 on your podcast app 👈 

Donald Trump begins bulldozing much of the White House as his plans to build a mega ballroom begin – without planning permission, nor true clarity as to how it’s all being funded.

There are aesthetic questions, historical questions and ethical questions. We dig into what they are.

And – who is the young Democratic socialist about to become New York City’s first Muslim mayor? We tell you everything you need to know about Zohran Mamdani.

You can also watch all episodes on our YouTube channel – and watch David Blevins’ digital video on the White House ballroom here.

Email us on trump100@sky.uk with your comments and questions.

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Furious Trump cancels ‘all trade negotiations’ with Canada after TV advert

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Furious Trump cancels 'all trade negotiations' with Canada after TV advert

Analysis: Escalation will test Trump and Carney’s relationship

Trump turning once again on America’s closest ally Canada just proves how flippant his trade decisions are.

The smooth-talking confidence of Prime Minister Mark Carney persuaded Canadians to vote for him in this year’s election.

He certainly ran on a pitch to stand up to Trump, but his recent dealings with the US president have largely been diplomatic and cordial.

Carney was last in the Oval Office just over two weeks ago, and the pair laughed off Trump’s obsession with Canada becoming the “51st state”.

But now it’s a single advert from the government of Ontario that has triggered Trump to pause all trade talks between the two, calling its anti-tariff stance “egregious” on his social media platform Truth Social.

The advert uses Ronald Reagan’s voice to attack tariff policy – arguing trade barriers “hurt every American worker and consumer… markets shrink, and collapse, businesses and industries shut down and millions of people lose their jobs”.

But now, the Ronald Reagan Foundation has said the ad “misrepresents” his words – and they did not give their permission to use it.

Mere hours before Trump’s post, Carney was prodding Trump jokingly to bet on the outcome of the baseball World Series.

Given this latest escalation by the President tonight, their next interaction will be far from a laughing matter.

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Putin criticises Trump’s sanctions on oil firms – as Russian jets ‘briefly enter NATO airspace’

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Putin criticises Trump's sanctions on oil firms - as Russian jets 'briefly enter NATO airspace'

Vladimir Putin has described Donald Trump’s sanctions against two major oil firms as an “unfriendly act”.

However, the Russian president has insisted the tightened restrictions won’t affect the nation’s economy, a claim widely contradicted by most analysts.

In a major policy shift, Mr Trump imposed sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil – Russia’s biggest oil companies – on Wednesday.

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Will US sanctions on Russian oil hurt the Kremlin?

The White House said this was because of “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine”.

Putin has now warned the move could disrupt the global oil markets, and lead to higher prices for consumers worldwide.

A meeting between the two leaders had been proposed in Budapest, but Mr Trump said he had decided to cancel the talks because “it didn’t feel right to me”.

Speaking from the Oval Office, he had told reporters: “I have good conversations. And then, they don’t go anywhere. They just don’t go anywhere.”

More on Donald Trump

Giving a speech in Moscow yesterday, Putin said “dialogue is always better than war” – but warned that Russia will never bow to pressure from abroad.

Earlier, his long-term ally Dmitry Medvedev had described Mr Trump as a “talkative peacemaker” who had now “fully embarked on the warpath against Russia”.

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Why did Trump sanction Russian oil?

Oil prices have witnessed a sizeable jump since the sanctions were announced, with Brent crude rising by 5% – the biggest daily percentage gains since the middle of June.

In other developments, Lithuania has claimed that two Russian military aircraft briefly entered its airspace yesterday.

A Su-30 fighter and Il-78 refuelling tanker were in the NATO member’s territory for 18 seconds, and Spanish jets were scrambled in response to the incident.

Russia’s defence ministry denied this – and said its planes did not violate the borders of any other country during a “training flight” in the Kaliningrad region.

Read more:
Sanctions could have chilling effect on market

How could new sanctions impact the UK?

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Zelenskyy tells Sky News ‘ceasefire is still possible’

Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended a European Council summit in Brussels to discuss the war in Ukraine – and said the meeting had delivered “good results”.

He said Ukraine had secured political support for frozen Russian assets and “their maximum use” to defend against Russian aggression, adding the EU would “work out all the necessary details”.

Mr Zelenskyy thanked the bloc for approving its 19th sanctions package against Russia earlier today, and work was already beginning on a 20th.

European leaders are going to arrive in London later today for a “critical” meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” – with the goal of discussing “how they can pile pressure on Putin as he continues to kill innocent civilians with indiscriminate attacks across Ukraine”.

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How will the Russian oil sanctions affect petrol costs?

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “The only person involved in this conflict who does not want to stop the war is President Putin, and his depraved strikes on young children in a nursery this week make that crystal clear.

“Time and again we offer Putin the chance to end his needless invasion, to stop the killing and recall his troops, but he repeatedly rejects those proposals and any chance of peace.

“From the battlefield to the global markets, as Putin continues to commit atrocities in Ukraine we must ratchet up the pressure on Russia and build on President Trump’s decisive action.”

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