Is today the moment the world’s top diplomatic body comes together in a collective call for a ceasefire in Gaza? Or will messy, discombobulating and cynical geopolitics get in the way? Will Russia vote for an American resolution?
At 9am New York time (1pm UK time) the United Nations Security Council will vote on a resolution calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Déjà vu? Yes. We’ve been here several times before. Resolutions over the past few months have used different constructions of the same sentences by different countries to find a form of word upon which all sides can agree.
This resolution is different. It was penned by America using its strongest language to date.
The language in the latest circulated draft of the resolution is key. It “…determines the imperative of an immediate and sustained ceasefire to protect civilians on all sides, allow for the delivery of essential humanitarian assistance, and alleviate humanitarian suffering, and towards that end unequivocally supports ongoing international diplomatic efforts to secure such a ceasefire in connection with the release of all remaining hostages”.
Words like “imperative”, “immediate”, “sustained” and “in connection” are vital and do a lot of work in terms of how the text as a whole is received and the success it has in passing.
For America to use “immediate” is significant because it’s a first.
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Beyond that, in the context of the hostages, by adding “towards that end” and “in connection with” prior to mentioning the release of all the hostages, the new text loosens the previously tight linkage between an immediate ceasefire and hostage releases. There is ambiguity over whether the ceasefire is conditional on the release of all the hostages. In UN texts, ambiguity can be intentional and helpful.
Image: Humanitarian aid has had to be dropped in via the air to make it into the Gaza Strip. Pic: Reuters
The evolution of this US resolution has happened over several weeks during which America’s diplomats in New York have reluctantly hardened the language in consultation with other members.
A key issue, as ever in this Gaza ceasefire resolution quest, has been the issue of condemning Hamas without condemning Israel – a red line for Arab bloc in the Security Council.
They highlight that the Israel-Palestinian hostilities didn’t begin with the 7 October Hamas attack and they insist on condemnation of Israel’s actions since the incursion.
That America, of all nations, has penned this text reflects how they have moved on the issue and how frustrated they are with Israel regarding aid access to Gaza.
It is also a hint that the Americans either think the ceasefire talks (between Israel and Hamas through mediators in Doha and Cairo) are coming close to a deal or that they could do with some pressure being placed on them. The Arab bloc around the table will take account of the Palestinian view of the text. Will they find the text too wishy-washy? The text will need to condemn Israel enough to satisfy the Palestinians.
Image: Smoke rises over Gaza over the weekend. Pic: AP
Russia’s position
There is one key thing to watch: Russia. Along with China, as permanent members of the Security Council, they have the power to veto resolutions.
Western diplomats are concerned that Russia may seek to veto this US resolution despite voting for all other ceasefire-demanding resolutions for Gaza. Why would they do that?
Image: The destruction inside the Gaza Strip. Pic: AP
If the Arab bloc and the Palestinians are not happy with the text, and see an advantage in it not passing, they can pressure Russia and China.
But it could be more straightforward or cynical (some would say) than that. Russia may conclude it has no interest in allowing America to dig itself out of its own diplomatic hole.
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From Thursday: ‘Israel needs to do more’
Would the resolution have any impact?
Last important point – even if this resolution does pass, it is not binding. It is a so-called Chapter VI resolution which doesn’t specify measures to enforce compliance.
Only Chapter VII resolutions are considered to be legally binding, and the UN has never tabled an Israel-related Chapter VII resolution, which could authorise economic or military sanctions.
Given that Israel has undermined the United Nations at every turn in this crisis, arguing that the elements within the body have worked against its right to self-defence, it is feasible that they dismiss any successful resolution.
Vladimir Putin has described Donald Trump’s sanctions against two major oil firms as an “unfriendly act”.
However, the Russian president has insisted the tightened restrictions won’t affect the nation’s economy, a claim widely contradicted by most analysts.
In a major policy shift, Mr Trump imposed sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil – Russia’s biggest oil companies – on Wednesday.
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Will US sanctions on Russian oil hurt the Kremlin?
The White House said this was because of “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine”.
Putin has now warned the move could disrupt the global oil markets, and lead to higher prices for consumers worldwide.
A meeting between the two leaders had been proposed in Budapest, but Mr Trump said he had decided to cancel the talks because “it didn’t feel right to me”.
Speaking from the Oval Office, he had told reporters: “I have good conversations. And then, they don’t go anywhere. They just don’t go anywhere.”
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Giving a speech in Moscow yesterday, Putin said “dialogue is always better than war” – but warned that Russia will never bow to pressure from abroad.
Earlier, his long-term ally Dmitry Medvedev had described Mr Trump as a “talkative peacemaker” who had now “fully embarked on the warpath against Russia”.
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Why did Trump sanction Russian oil?
Oil prices have witnessed a sizeable jump since the sanctions were announced, with Brent crude rising by 5% – the biggest daily percentage gains since the middle of June.
In other developments, Lithuania has claimed that two Russian military aircraft briefly entered its airspace yesterday.
A Su-30 fighter and Il-78 refuelling tanker were in the NATO member’s territory for 18 seconds, and Spanish jets were scrambled in response to the incident.
Russia’s defence ministry denied this – and said its planes did not violate the borders of any other country during a “training flight” in the Kaliningrad region.
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Zelenskyy tells Sky News ‘ceasefire is still possible’
Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended a European Council summit in Brussels to discuss the war in Ukraine – and said the meeting had delivered “good results”.
He said Ukraine had secured political support for frozen Russian assets and “their maximum use” to defend against Russian aggression, adding the EU would “work out all the necessary details”.
Mr Zelenskyy thanked the bloc for approving its 19th sanctions package against Russia earlier today, and work was already beginning on a 20th.
European leaders are going to arrive in London later today for a “critical” meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” – with the goal of discussing “how they can pile pressure on Putin as he continues to kill innocent civilians with indiscriminate attacks across Ukraine”.
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How will the Russian oil sanctions affect petrol costs?
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “The only person involved in this conflict who does not want to stop the war is President Putin, and his depraved strikes on young children in a nursery this week make that crystal clear.
“Time and again we offer Putin the chance to end his needless invasion, to stop the killing and recall his troops, but he repeatedly rejects those proposals and any chance of peace.
“From the battlefield to the global markets, as Putin continues to commit atrocities in Ukraine we must ratchet up the pressure on Russia and build on President Trump’s decisive action.”
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The entire East Wing of the White House will be demolished “within days” – much more bulldozing than initially expected for Donald Trump’s new ballroom construction project.
Two Trump administration officials told Sky News’ US partner NBC that the demolition is a significant expansion of the initial plans announced this summer.
“It won’t interfere with the current building,” Mr Trump had said on 31 July. “It’ll be near it, but not touching it, and pays total respect to the existing building, which I’m the biggest fan of.”
Image: Rubble is piled higher and higher as demolition continues on the East Wing. Pic: AP
But a White House official told NBC News the “entirety” of the East Wing would eventually be “modernised and rebuilt”.
“The scope and the size of the ballroom project have always been subject to vary as the process develops,” the official added.
The East Wing was built at the beginning of the last century and was last modified in 1942.
Image: Trump shows off an artist’s impressions of his new ballroom. Pic:AP
Construction on the ballroom – which is expected to hold up to 900 people when finished – began this week.
The National Trust for Historic Preservation, a non-profit agency created by Congress to help preserve historic buildings, warned administration officials in a letter on Tuesday that the planned ballroom “will overwhelm the White House itself”.
“We respectfully urge the administration and the National Park Service (stewards of the White House) to pause demolition until plans for the proposed ballroom go through the legally required public review processes,” Carol Quillen, the trust’s chief executive, said in a statement.
Image: Windows of the complex could be seen being torn down. Pic: Reuters
‘Fake news’
The White House called the uproar “manufactured outrage” by “unhinged leftists and their fake news allies” in a statement.
Last week, Mr Trump said the total price would be about $250m (£187m), which would be paid for by himself and private donors will pay for. However, on Wednesday, he said the ballroom’s price is “about $300m (£225m)”.
The 90,000 sq ft ballroom will dwarf the White House itself – and would be able to accommodate almost five times more guests than the East Room, the largest current space in the mansion.
Mr Trump says the ballroom won’t cost US taxpayers at all. Instead, “donors” would pay for it.
Comcast, the parent company of Sky News, was included on a list of top donors released last week – but it is unclear how much it or others have contributed.