‘Next pandemic is around the corner,’ expert warns – but would lockdown ever happen again?
Exactly four years ago today, Boris Johnson announced the UK’s first COVID lockdown, ordering people to “stay at home”.
Working from home became our reality and people were separated from their loved ones, while frontline workers tackled a new and unknown virus.
With a public inquiry under way into how the UK approached COVID-19, many have criticised when and how we went in and out of lockdowns.
So if another pandemic struck, would we have to lock down again – and how would it be different?
Sky News asks scientists and disaster experts whether we would ever be told to stay at home again, what lockdown measures would involve – and whether the public would comply.
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Boris Johnson’s 23 March 2020 statement in full
When could a pandemic happen again?
COVID has often been referred to as a “once in a lifetime” event. But with more than six million estimated COVID deaths globally, the last comparable pandemic only emerged four decades ago.
HIV/AIDs was first identified in 1981 and has killed 36 million people worldwide. Prior to that, the Hong Kong flu pandemic in 1968 caused about a million deaths, and the Spanish flu of 1918 50 million.
Scientists warn global warming and deforestation are also making it increasingly likely that a viral or bacterial agent will “jump” from animals to humans and cause another pandemic.
“We’re creating a situation that is rife for outbreaks,” says Dr Nathalie MacDermott, clinical lecturer in infectious diseases at King’s College London.
“I know that COVID was very hard for people and we want to believe we can just go back to normal and I understand that entirely.
“But the next pandemic is around the corner – it might be two years, it could be 20 years, it could be longer – but we can’t afford to let our guards down. We need to stay vigilant, prepared and ready to make sacrifices again.”
Dr MacDermott explains that by cutting down trees in the Amazon and parts of Africa, animals and insects are moving closer to people’s homes.
And with rising temperatures, outbreaks of mosquito and tick-borne viruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) are happening in parts of Europe rarely seen before.
“As temperatures increase around the world, even the UK will become an area where it’s possible for those types of mosquitoes to live,” she says.
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Day 1: Life under lockdown
How long would lockdowns last?
While there were three lockdowns in England, each several months long, Professor Stephen Griffin, virologist at the University of Leeds, argues there should have “only ever been one”.
“Lockdown was an extreme reaction to a situation that had already got out of control,” he says.
But if there was investment in mitigations like air ventilation in public buildings and generic vaccines and antiviral drugs that could be adapted at speed, he argues, lockdowns would be shorter and less severe.
Dr MacDermott says that until the government, scientists and healthcare workers know more about an emerging virus and how it spreads, “a lockdown would be inevitable to some degree”.
Professor Adam Kucharski, co-director of the Centre for Epidemic Preparedness and Response at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, says that if you can’t contain severe infections and eliminate them completely – like Ebola in Africa and SARS-1 in East Asia – the only way to prevent a large disease epidemic is by heavily reducing transmission until a vaccine or treatment make the population less susceptible.
In the UK, it was eight months before the first COVID vaccine was administered and more than a year before it was rolled out more widely.
Pic: PA
Would we be banned from socialising – and would schools shut?
Professor Lucy Easthope, expert in mass fatalities and pandemics at the University of Bath, says she would want to see what she calls a “nuanced quarantine”.
“Lockdown is never a word I would have used – it’s only really associated with things like school shootings,” she says.
With regards to restrictions on socialising, she stresses how important “community and connection” are for disaster planning.
Outdoor dining pods at a restaurant in Cambridgeshire in 2020. Pic: PA
The 2016 UK flu plan says public gatherings are “an important indicator of normality” and that “there is little direct evidence of the benefits of cancelling such events”.
Immediately authorities should prioritise creating “large ventilated safe spaces” for children, pregnant women, and vulnerable people, she says.
This would involve places like cinemas, leisure centres, and town halls being repurposed as community centres.
She adds the importance of people having a “purpose”, so being able to meet people socially outside should be allowed as soon as the nature of the virus is clear.
Similarly, pubs, bars, cafes, and restaurants should be allowed to open outdoors as soon as possible, she says.
A school closed on 24 March 2020 in Knutsford, Cheshire. Pic: PA
While the flu plan does advise schools in infected areas to shut, contingency measures have been suggested for temporary marquees to host lessons – or just spaces for children to go.
“Lots of children don’t have gardens, so organised ways of getting them outside is important,” Professor Easthope says.
“For the marquees for education, you might expect to see three or four schools consolidated together.”
Another ‘pingdemic’?
The government spent billions on its test and trace system, which included testing centres, the coronavirus helpline, manual contact tracing by what was then Public Health England, and the NHS COVID app.
While rapid tests are important to stop people spreading the virus further, and the app “had a lot of promise”, more innovative digital contact tracing may be required to avoid us relying on another lockdown, Professor Kucharski says.
“The pingdemic was to some extent the NHS app doing what it was designed to do,” he says.
“But with the digital contact tracing infrastructure that some Asian countries had, you can limit disruption to those people at higher risk in a particular outbreak rather than reverting to blanket measures.”
He cautions that it would require “hard conversations” around privacy, but options include using smartphone location and debit card transactions to link people to identified cases.
In some countries, leaving quarantine would see people’s phones automatically notify tracers of potential further spread.
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March 2020: Sky News speaks to people about life under lockdown in Sheffield
Would the public comply?
When public health experts gave evidence to the COVID inquiry last year, they said they were wrong to assume the public would soon tire of a lockdown and suffer “behavioural fatigue”.
Social psychologist and crowd behaviour expert Chris Cocking says it was a lack of trust in government that caused compliance rates to fall – not simply getting “tired” of restrictions.
“The overall message should be positive,” the principal lecturer at the University of Brighton says. “Because if another situation arose, where it became necessary, people would comply.”
He says if another lockdown was needed, the current Tory government would either have to minimise scandals over their own rule-breaking – or change hands completely to keep the public on board.
He adds: “If we had a new government, people would be far more likely to have faith in them because they would be less likely to say, ‘it’s the same bunch as before – why should we do it again?’
“And if they put more effort into not having situations like ‘Partygate’ or Dominic Cummings driving to Barnard Castle, they could appeal to the public’s shared sense of identity, and it would be possible for compliance rates to remain relatively high.”
COVID national memorial wall in London. Pic: PA
From COVID fines to arrests made during Black Lives Matter protests and the Sarah Everard vigil, Professor Easthope describes lockdown legislation as “definitely bad” and “cruelly applied”.
Mr Cocking argues lockdown laws are largely irrelevant to people’s decision to adhere to restrictions or not.
“It’s not the laws in place, it’s whether people psychologically identify with the need to comply,” he says.
And for people who don’t, engaging with different groups is important to avoid a mass movement of “lockdown sceptics”.
“People might feel unable to comply with restrictions for lots of different reasons. But it’s a real mistake to lump them all together because you then identify them all as part of the same group, which further alienates them from the authorities,” Mr Cocking adds.
Would we be well enough prepared?
Four years before COVID, the UK had carried out secret pandemic preparedness exercises for both flu and coronavirus outbreaks.
A detailed report on the flu exercise was compiled, but public health officials have told the COVID inquiry that the coronavirus drill wasn’t acted on.
A flu pandemic plan was compiled after Exercise Cygnus in 2016. Pic: Cabinet Office
According to Professors Kucharski and Easthope, the more extensive flu plan could be easily adapted.
“The separation of a flu plan from a coronavirus plan is nonsense,” Professor Kucharski says.
“The characteristics of COVID were a lot like the sort of infection in a flu pandemic. It should have been a wider discussion about what the acceptable outcome was from the horrendous trade-offs we were going to have to make.”
Read more:
Doctors suing NHS over long COVID
How widespread is COVID now?
Professor Easthope says in the late 2010s, she and other emergency planners identified holes in infrastructure that meant the UK “wasn’t ready for even a relatively manageable pandemic” in terms of health and social care. She also says stockpiles of PPE “failed” in 2017.
But she says the internet’s capacity to cope with so many processes moving online is both “enabling and unifying”.
“We just didn’t know how well it would perform, but in the end, it was one of the reasons we didn’t fall apart completely,” she says.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson told Sky News: “Throughout the pandemic, the government acted to save lives and livelihoods, prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and deliver a world-leading vaccine rollout which protected millions of lives across the nation.
“We have always said there are lessons to be learnt from the pandemic and we are committed to learning from the COVID-19 inquiry’s findings which will play a key role in informing the government’s planning and preparations for the future. We will consider all recommendations made to the department in full.”
UK
Hadush Kebatu: CCTV images show last sightings of wanted asylum seeker after he was released from prison in error
CCTV images have been released of a jailed asylum seeker who was accidentally freed from prison – as police detailed the last sighting of him.
Hadush Kebatu was released in error from HMP Chelmsford on Friday instead of being handed over to immigration officials for deportation – one month into a 12-month sentence.
As the manhunt continues, the images show him in the Essex town on Friday and later the same day in Dalston, east London, where he was carrying a “distinctive white bag with pictures of avocados on it”, said the Metropolitan Police.
The last sighting of Kebatu is thought to have been in Dalston CLR James Library in Dalston Square on Friday evening.
The Ethiopian national had been found guilty in September of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl and a woman in Epping.
His crimes while staying at The Bell Hotel in Epping sparked weeks of protests over the summer.
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Police call on public to assist on manhunt
The Met Police, which has been leading the search for Kebatu, alongside Essex Police and the British Transport Police, has made a direct appeal Kebatu to hand himself in.
He left Chelmsford train station at 12.42pm on Friday and arrived at Stratford station in east London soon after at 1.12pm.
Kebatu had since taken “a number of journeys” across London and had “access to funds”, according to Met Commander James Conway.
(L-R) Hadush Kebatu in Chelmsford on Friday and later in Dalston, east London. Pic: Met Police
Last sighting
The force said he was last seen shortly before 8pm on Friday evening in the Dalston area of Hackney in east London.
It has released two CCTV images of him from Friday, one in Chelmsford where he was wearing his prison-issued, grey tracksuit and holding a clear, plastic bag containing his possessions.
Hadush Kebatu was arrested in July. Pic: Crown Prosecution Service/PA
The other was taken in Dalston, where he was still wearing his grey tracksuit, but was carrying his belongings “in a distinctive white bag with pictures of avocados on it”.
A Met statement added: “Additional officers have been deployed to the area to carry out further searches, but we are appealing for the help of local residents to report any sightings as soon as possible.”
Mr Conway has asked for members of the public who have given assistance to Kebatu to contact them or anyone who sees him to call 999.
And in a direct appeal to Kebatu, Mr Conway added: “We want to locate you in a safe and controlled way.
“You had already indicated a desire to return to Ethiopia when speaking to immigration staff, the best outcome for you is to make contact directly with us by either calling 999 or reporting yourself to a police station.”
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Watch: Witness describes confusion outside prison
Meanwhile, a lorry driver, who was delivering equipment to Chelmsford jail on Friday, told Sky News correspondent Tom Parmenter he saw the “confused” offender outside the facility being directed by prison staff to the town’s railway station following his release.
The witness, called Sim, said Kebatu came out of the jail saying, “Where am I going? What am I doing?” and hanging around for about 90 minutes as he tried to find out where he should be going.
Sim said the offender returned to the prison “four or five times” but was turned away.
He said Kebatu knew he should be deported but the prison staff were “basically sending him away” and saying to him, “Go, you’ve been released, you go”.
Hadush Kebatu, who was jailed for two sexual assaults in Epping. Pic: Essex Police/PA
Kebatu was spotted later in Chelmsford town centre asking for assistance before getting on a train to London.
HM Prison and Probation Service is introducing new and mandatory procedures for prisoner releases after Kebatu was mistakenly freed, Ministry of Justice sources say.
Duty governors, who are responsible for the daily secure operation of prisons, will now be required to complete additional checks the evening before a release, it is understood.
Governors will need to provide assurance that the procedure is in place on Monday, Sky News understands.
Justice Secretary David Lammy said on Friday night that Kebatu was “at large in London”. He said he was “livid on behalf of the public” and added that he had launched an investigation.
Sir Keir Starmer said he was “appalled” at the accidental release and said it was “totally unacceptable”, adding: “This man must be caught and deported for his crimes.”
A prison officer has been taken off duties to discharge prisoners while an investigation takes place.
Former Commons leader Lucy Powell has been crowned Labour’s new deputy leader in a closely fought race against Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson.
Ms Powell received 87,407 votes to Ms Phillipson’s 73,536 – a majority of 13,871 – in a contest that was widely perceived as a referendum on Sir Keir Starmer’s popularity with the membership.
Ms Powell was seen as the “anti-Starmer” candidate given she was sacked from cabinet just last month, and centred her campaign on being an independent voice for the backbenches.
Politics live: Follow for updates as Labour names new deputy leader
Ms Phillipson was seen as Number 10’s preferred option, and she had pitched herself as the “unity candidate”, warning that voting for her opponent would result in “internal debate and divisions that leads us back to opposition”.
However speaking to Sky News’s political editor Beth Rigby following the result, Ms Powell insisted she would be a “friend” to the prime minister, adding: “I am confident we can work well together.”
She said she was not here to “write an alternative policy platform” but rather “to make sure Labour values and beliefs are right at the heart of the conversation, and that we’re giving a really clear sense of who we’re for”.
Ms Powell’s earlier victory speech made clear where she thought Labour was going wrong, and what she would challenge the government on.
The Manchester Central MP said Labour “won’t win by trying to out-Reform Reform, but by building a broad progressive consensus”.
She said that started with “wrestling back the political megaphone” from Reform leader Nigel Farage, and “setting the agenda more strongly”.
“Let’s be honest, we’ve let Farage and his ilk run away with it. He wants to blame immigration for all the country’s problems. We reject that,” she said.
“Our diagnosis is different, that for too long the country and the economy has worked in the interests of the few, not the many.”
The reference to “for the many not the few” – the slogan during Jeremy Corbyn’s time at the helm, was not lost on his then shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
The veteran left-winger said on X: “The Labour Party members have spoken & the message is clear, they want change. It’s good to see a return to references to the Labour Party serving once more the many not the few & that Labour must not try out Reform, Reform. Our members realise a new start is desperately needed.”
‘Unwanted deputy imposed on PM’
The deputy leadership role is important as it’s the key connection between the Labour members and the upper echelons of the Labour Party.
The race was triggered by the sudden departure of Angela Rayner, after she admitted to underpaying stamp duty.
The scandal sparked a reshuffle in which Ms Powell was one of the only casualties. It makes the new partnership potentially very awkward for Sir Keir, especially as his new deputy will be free to speak out against his policies from the back benches rather than being bound by collective responsibility like Ms Phillipson.
However in a possible olive branch, Sky News understands Ms Powell will be asked to attend political cabinet meetings, even though she will not officially be a member of cabinet.
Tory chairman Kevin Hollinrake said “weak Keir Starmer” has had an unwanted deputy leader “imposed on him by the Labour Party”, adding: “The failure of the Keir Starmer candidate, Bridget Philipson, is another defeat of the prime minister’s authority.”
Turnout for the vote was low – just 16.6%, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm among party members and its affiliates.
Sir Keir congratulated Ms Powell after the results were announced, saying she “has always been a proud defender of Labour values, and that is exactly what we need at this moment”.
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PM: Powell is ‘a proud defender of Labour values’
He echoed some of her language around immigration, as he attacked the Tories for this week suggesting they supported a policy to deport people who have settled in the UK legally, something Reform UK has advocated.
“That is what we’re up against on the right of politics, a politics of division and grievance that wants to take this great country to a very dark place”, Sir Keir said.
PM warns of ‘battle for the soul of our nation’
The prime minister is under pressure as the party plummets in the polls, with many MPs on the left predicting he could be gone by May if the local elections go badly.
Sir Keir acknowledged Labour is having a difficult time after it lost the Caerphilly by-election to Plaid Cymru on Thursday.
He said it was a “bad result” and “a reminder that people need to look out their window and see change and renewal in their community, opportunities for their children, public services rebuilt, the cost of living crisis tackled”.
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Phillipson ‘disappointed to lose’
“We must unite. We must keep our focus on what is, in my view, the defining battle for the soul of our nation. I know that Lucy will do just that,” he said.
Saturday’s result is the culmination of a six week contest, with the pair having had to secure nominations from 80 MPs in the first round and then win the backing of 5% of local parties or Labour affiliated groups before making it to the final vote.
Initially six candidates entered, but it quickly became a two-horse race as only Ms Powell and Ms Phillipson reached the 80 threshold, following claims from the left of a “stitch up”.
Ms Phillipson said she was “disappointed to lose” but Ms Powell “has my full support”.
She added: “What we all need to do now is unite this party, beat Reform and secure that second term Labour government.”
UK
How many prisoners are released by mistake? Here are the stats as search for migrant sex offender continues
The manhunt for a migrant who sexually assaulted a schoolgirl, and was released from prison in error, is ongoing.
Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu was jailed for 12 months earlier this year after he sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl and a woman in Epping.
He had been staying in the Bell Hotel in Epping and his arrest triggered large-scale protests and disorder.
The Ethiopian national, who came to the UK on a small boat in the summer, is now being searched for by the police after he was accidentally freed on Friday.
Follow the latest updates on the manhunt
Hadush Kebatu, jailed for two sexual assaults in Epping. Pic: Essex Police / PA
How many prisoners are released in error?
According to government statistics published in July, 262 prisoners were released in error in the 12 months to March 2025 – a 128% increase from 115 the previous year.
The report states: “Of the 262 releases in error, 233 of these releases in error occurred from prison establishments, while 29 were released in error at the courts.
“Releases in error from establishments could also be a result of errors by the court.”
This is out of a total prison population across England and Wales of roughly 86,000.
Sky News has contacted the HM Prison & Probation Service to know how many of the 262 prisoners have since been found and returned to custody.
In September 2024, Sky News reported how dozens of people released from jail under the government’s emergency prison scheme were freed by mistake.
The Labour government said it was forced to release hundreds of inmates early because prisons were at capacity.
William Fernandez. Pic: PA
Kebatu, who is thought to be in the London area, was due to be deported when he was mistakenly released from HMP Chelmsford on Friday.
Previous high-profile manhunts
William Fernandez, who was awaiting trial for sexual assault, was released from HMP Wormwood by error in March 2021. He then went on to rape a 16-year-old girl and sexually assault a young woman.
Joseph McCann. Pic: Police handout
In December 2019, the prisons and probation service “apologised unreservedly” after serial rapist Joseph McCann was freed to commit a series of sex attacks on women and children.
In July 2017, an inmate who was released from prison just months into a nine-year sentence due to a “clerical error” was arrested after weeks on the run.
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