Adam Boulton: Quitter politicians – an impossible job or the wrong people at the wrong time?
There goes another one. The Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar announced this week that he is quitting at the age of 45, explaining: “I don’t feel I’m the best person for that job any more.”
He is just the latest in a spate of national leaders to stand down voluntarily when seemingly at the peak of their powers.
Last year New Zealand’s former prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, found she had “no more in the tank” aged 43.
Nicola Sturgeon went at 53 to spend “a little bit more time on Nicola Sturgeon the human being”, since being first minister of Scotland “takes its toll on you”.
Politicians at the very top are not the only ones calling an early end to their careers.
The number of MPs standing down from the Commons has now reached 100 and counting.
That is what might be expected ahead of a likely “change election” when the opposition is poised to take over from incumbents. A major cause for concern is the comparatively young age of many of those giving up and quitting so soon.
From resigning prime ministers to departing MPs something must be going wrong if politics only holds such a passing attraction for people of talent.
Maybe the jobs of leader and people’s representative are more impossible than they have ever been in the social media age. Or perhaps the wrong people are going into politics at the wrong time. They are quitters not fighters.
“Poster Child” almost seems an apt description for some of those joining the exodus from Westminster: Nicola Richards 29, Mhairi Black 29, William Wragg 36 and Deheena Davison, 30.
Most of the MPs going prematurely have only known one government in their time at Westminster. The majority of those standing down have only been MPs since 2010 at the earliest. More than a dozen were first elected in 2017 and 2019.
The prospect of imminent or actual defeat has of course concentrated the minds of those handing in their parliamentary passes voluntarily. Two out of three who announced they are not standing again are Conservatives.
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‘I’m not the best person for the job’
Adverse circumstances higher up the food chain
Higher up the food chain, Varadkar, Ardern and Sturgeon were praised at first for going in their own time for no particular reason. It soon became apparent that they were in adverse circumstances.
Police Scotland’s Operation Branchform investigating alleged fraud by the SNP is still under way. Ms Sturgeon and her husband have both been interviewed under caution.
Meanwhile her party’s standing and support for Scottish independence have both headed south in opinion polls.
Ms Ardern once talked about seeking a third term as prime minister. Instead, under her successor as leader, her Labour Party was walloped by the conservative National Party in last year’s election, amid a reaction against the “woke” values she personified.
As his country’s youngest-ever prime minister, gay and from an Indian ethnic background, Mr Varadkar also embodied Ireland’s rapid liberalisation.
But this month, he and Dublin’s political establishment suffered the setback of resounding defeat in a double referendum attempting to modernise the constitution on “relationships” outside marriage and the role of women.
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Mr Varadkar, from the right of centre Fine Gael party, owes his seven years in office to a series of pacts with the opposition Fianna Fail, which were largely designed to keep the republican Sinn Fein away from power.
A general election is due soon and Sinn Fein now tops the polls in the south under Mary Lou MacDonald. Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill is first minister in Northern Ireland.
Not like previous generations
Today’s quitter politicians certainly face some stark challenges but they are all going down without a fight, unlike many in previous generations.
William Gladstone and Harold Wilson both regained the premiership after losing it. Others like Ted Heath and Margaret Beckett stayed on for years after their glory days of power.
Most of the MPs going now plan to leave politics altogether. They complain that the pressures of the job have become intolerable. Some talk of worries for their mental health and even post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
Pay is not the main issue. The government has accepted IPSA’s recommendation of a 5.5% increase taking an MP’s salary to £91,346 a year.
Jacinda Ardern. Pic: PA
While it is true that wage inequalities have increased to the benefit of the very highest earners, MPs and ministers in the UK and elsewhere have more than maintained their differential above the average professional salary.
Some of those leaving now, perhaps with backgrounds in teaching or local government, say they are worried that they might not be able to earn as much. Some are announcing their intention to quit now hoping to be at the front of the queue for opportunities.
Being a minister in a failing government is not so attractive when it means an automatic six-month quarantine before taking up new employment.
Organised pile-ons and email campaigns
Mr Varadkar explained: “Politicians are human beings and we have our limitations.
“We give it everything until we can’t any more.”
He speaks for many of those calling it a day. They talk of the pressures of being on call 24/7. Thanks to the internet, constituents can contact them with less effort than ever and monitor their activities and apparent work rate. Organised pile-ons and email campaigns are a common hazard.
Far worse, a growing minority of the public regard MPs as fair game. At the extreme this has resulted in the recent murder of two MPs, Jo Cox and David Amess, and a number of other violent assaults.
Women MPs also have to deal with vile abuse and threats online every day. Some consider the male-dominated atmosphere at Westminster to be “toxic”.
Tony Blair was the first prime minister to have young children in Downing Street for a century. Since then Brown, Cameron, Johnson, Truss and Sunak have each taken families into Number 10.
Nicola Sturgeon
As the demand for younger political leaders grows, so do their difficulties bringing up children. Some of the women leaving office, including Ms Ardern, talk of the personal and private pressures. Blair was the most successful British politician of his generation but says he would be “really worried” if any of his four adult children wanted to go into politics.
Plenty of nutters and demagogues
Mainstream parties are now having trouble finding candidates who look like decent, long-term prospects. There are always plenty of nutters and demagogues looking for an opening but sensible men and women willing to serve their country with a career in parliament are in short supply.
As a result, both the Conservatives and Labour are having to pick young candidates with local links. A significant number of these potential MPs have some knowledge of the ropes thanks to family connections to politicians and others in “the Westminster Bubble”, including journalists. They are not necessarily good long-term bets.
Single people in their 20s and early 30s cannot know where their lives are heading. Those now leaving parliament after a few years presumably took a wrong turning when they became MPs. The electorate that has been paying to train them will not get the benefit of their expertise in future.
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Most ex-prime ministers still have something to offer in the public realm. But they choose to do it away from the crumbling palace of Westminster. Theresa May is the latest to say that she can better concentrate on what she cares about by leaving the Commons.
Few linger long once they have been elected. The average tenure of an MP is falling. The average age of MPs is around 50 compared to 57 in the US House of Representatives and 64 in the Senate. Admittedly the US has its unique problems of gerontocracy, but elsewhere in the English-speaking world it ought to be possible to get more use out of our mature politicians.
As things stand we are all caught in a vicious cycle. The quality of those seeking to govern is diminishing; that in turn breeds disrespect for politicians, which makes the job less appealing than ever.
As Leo Varadkar put it: “We give our all until we can’t anymore.”
Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have hinted at tax rises to come when the chancellor delivers the budget later this month.
In a Downing Street speech this morning, Ms Reeves will address “speculation” that an increase in income tax will be announced during the highly-anticipated statement on 26 November.
Politics Hub: Follow chancellor’s speech live
Sky News political editor Beth Rigby said it was “highly unusual” for the chancellor to make such a speech, but the Treasury believes she must “try to prepare the ground and make the argument for another big tax-raising budget”.
“I will make the choices necessary to deliver strong foundations for our economy – for this year, and years to come,” Ms Reeves will say.
Last night, Sir Keir gave Labour MPs a taste of what’s to come by warning of the need for “tough but fair” decisions.
Speaking at a party meeting in Westminster, he said the budget “takes place against a difficult economic backdrop”.
“It’s becoming clearer the long-term impact of Tory austerity, their botched Brexit deal and the pandemic on Britain’s productivity is worse than even we feared,” the prime minister said.
“Faced with that, we will make the tough but fair decisions to renew our country and build it for the long term.”
It comes after Sir Keir refused to confirm at Prime Minister’s Questions last week that the budget would honour his party’s manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT.
Having raised taxes in last year’s budget, notably national insurance on employers, Ms Reeves has also previously promised not to “come back for more” during this parliament.
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Will Labour raise taxes?
The PM and chancellor’s warnings come after reports suggested the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade its productivity growth forecast for the UK by about 0.3 percentage points.
That would leave Ms Reeves with a larger than expected fiscal black hole to fill, possibly up to £30bn.
She is said to be considering a proposal from The Resolution Foundation, a left-leaning thinktank close to the government, to raise income tax by 2p but cut national insurance by the same amount.
The thinktank, which used to be headed by Torsten Bell, a Labour MP who is now a key aide to Ms Reeves and a pensions minister, said the move would raise vital cash while protecting working people.
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A promise-breaking budget?
Reeves to prioritise NHS and cost of living
Giving a further flavour of what to expect, Ms Reeves will this morning vow to make “important choices that will shape our economy for years to come”.
“It is important that people understand the circumstances we are facing, the principles guiding my choices – and why I believe they will be the right choices for the country,” she will add.
Ms Reeves will say her priorities are cutting national debt, easing the cost of living and protecting the NHS.
“It will be a budget led by this government’s values,” she’s set to say.
“Of fairness and opportunity and focused squarely on the priorities of the British people: protecting our NHS, reducing our national debt and improving the cost of living.”
Strangulation pornography will be banned following a review which found such images have helped to establish it as a sexual norm.
The possession and publication of images depicting strangulation and suffocation will be criminalised under the Crime and Policing Bill, which is currently making its way through parliament.
Non-fatal strangulation is already an offence in its own right, but it is not currently illegal to show it online.
Conservative peer Baroness Bertin warned earlier this year that there has been a “total absence of government scrutiny” of the pornography industry.
Baroness Gabby Bertin carried out a review of the online pornography industry
Her independent review, published in February, referred to worrying anecdotal evidence from teachers about students asking how to choke girls during sex.
People acting out choking in their sex lives “may face devastating consequences”, she said in the review.
On Monday, the government confirmed it was putting forward amendments to the Crime and Policing Bill, which is due to come back before peers in the House of Lords for further scrutiny next week.
As well as making strangulation or suffocation in pornography illegal, duties will be placed on online platforms to stop the spread of such images, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) said.
Another amendment will extend the time limit for victims of intimate image abuse, which can include so-called “revenge porn”, to come forward to report such crimes.
Currently, victims have six months to do so, but this will be extended to three years.
Victims minister Alex Davies-Jones said the government “will not stand by while women are violated online and victimised by violent pornography which is allowed to normalise harm”.
She added: “We are sending a strong message that dangerous and sexist behaviour will not be tolerated.”
Of strangulation pornography, Technology Secretary Liz Kendall said: “Viewing and sharing this kind of material online is not only deeply distressing, it is vile and dangerous. Those who post or promote such content are contributing to a culture of violence and abuse that has no place in our society.
“We’re also holding tech companies to account and making sure they stop this content before it can spread. We are determined to make sure women and girls can go online without fear of violence or exploitation.”
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From June: ‘He was going to kill me’
The government said if the amendments were accepted, possession or publication of strangulation or suffocation in pornography would become a priority offence under the Online Safety Act.
Technology firms would be legally required to take steps to stop such violent content reaching internet users, rather than simply waiting for it to be reported.
The government suggested this could be done through moderation tools, stricter content policies or automated systems being used to detect and hide images.
The British Board of Film Classification (BBFC) welcomed the planned changes, but said they must “mark the beginning of broader reform to ensure parity between online and offline content standards”.
Its chief executive David Austin said: “Harmful depictions of non-consensual, violent and abusive activity continue to be readily accessible to UK users.”
The BBFC said it stands ready to take on “the formal role of auditing online pornography”, which would be “a natural extension of the role we have carried out offline for decades”.
Bernie Ryan, chief executive of the Institute For Addressing Strangulation, welcomed the proposed ban, saying the “serious risks posed by unregulated online content, especially to children and young people” must be recognised.
She added: “Strangulation is a serious form of violence, often used in domestic abuse to control, silence or terrify.
“When it’s portrayed in pornography, particularly without context, it can send confusing and harmful messages to young people about what is normal or acceptable in intimate relationships. Our research shows there is no safe way to strangle.”
The advocacy organization filed a brief opposing prosecutors’ arguments that two brothers presented themselves as “honest validators” to allegedly pull off a $25-million exploit.
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