Inside Austin’s bitcoin underground
AUSTIN — There is a sort of clubhouse for Austin’s bitcoin believers on the second floor of the Littlefield Building at the corner of Congress Avenue and Sixth Street. The hideaway is at the crossroads of two worlds — the majestic thoroughfare that leads to the Texas State Capitol and the iconic, albeit notorious, stretch of bars, restaurants, and live music that define the capital’s party vibes. It’s an apt metaphor for the space itself.
The Bitcoin Commons is, at once, many things.
By day, it functions as an open plan, fluorescent-lit co-working space for the more corporate-minded bitcoin operators, but at night, it moonlights as a safe space for underground meet-ups of the industry’s rogue actors. Periodically, it plays host to conferences that draw in a mix of attendees ranging from venture capitalists to armed preppers living entirely off the grid. And on some afternoons, once happy hour hits, the kitchen at the back is retrofit with a stowaway bar.
“We also fund developers, and we help them advance their projects,” said Parker Lewis, one of the stewards of the Commons, as well as the author of a new book on bitcoin called “Gradually, Then Suddenly.”
“We help advance bitcoin through education and actually developing the monetary network, the code base, and the applications,” said Lewis, who is widely considered to be one of Texas’ de facto bitcoin ambassadors.
Francisco Chavarria was born in Mexico City and spent time in Salt Lake City, but three years ago, he made the move to Austin to be a part of a community of like-minded thinkers. His company, Yopaki, which is a neobank for bitcoin focused on the Latin American market, just won first place in a hackathon put on at the Commons.
“If you talk to other builders in the competition, a lot happens here,” said Chavarria. “There definitely is a sense of, ‘I don’t need for others to lose for me to win.’ There really is a relationship and a collaboration for bitcoin to succeed.”
“Right now it feels like we’re all winning because of the price, but those of us who have been building in the bear market, we know,” Chavarria added.
Austin’s “Bitcoin Commons” hosts regular meetups and conferences for the city’s bitcoiners.
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Bear or bull market, bitcoiners have flocked to Austin because of a combination of pro-crypto policies, abundant, renewable energy, and an ever-growing network of some of the brightest developers and miners on the planet. And even in the price doldrums, they typically bring the same level of enthusiasm to the conversation — though bitcoin’s recent stretch of record-breaking price moves has gone a long way toward boosting morale.
In March, bitcoin hit multiple, fresh all-time highs, as trader enthusiasm for the digital asset sector soared. A lot of that price run-up has to do with the record flows into the newly-launched spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S., led by the world’s largest asset manager Blackrock and its $15.5 billion iShares Bitcoin Trust, which have helped to solidify bitcoin’s place as an asset class that’s here to stay.
Collectively, these spot ETFs have brought in around $60 billion, and in some cases, they have been breaking records for ETF flows altogether.
“The biggest driver is certainly the ETF flows, which have surpassed the expectations of all but the most bullish pundits,” said Castle Island Venture’s Nic Carter of bitcoin’s record price moves this month. “And these blockbuster flows have materialized before the major wirehouses, asset managers, and RIAs have actually approved the ETF for their clients.”
Carter added that there is also new liquidity coming into bitcoin from Asian markets via two main pathways: bitcoin’s version of non-fungible tokens known as ordinals, as well as bitcoin-issued coins called BRC20 tokens.
Underground vibes with an open bar
In the last 20 years, Austin has matured into one of the country’s leading tech centers, a trend accelerated by the Covid pandemic, which saw industry leaders migrate en masse from California.
“Bitcoin was founded in 2009. A lot has happened post-financial crisis. Austin was already emerging as a tech center, and you know, enter bitcoin, and it just became the logical home,” said Lewis, who runs business development at Zaprite, a bitcoin-native financial services firm.
It helps that Texas is a libertarian-friendly state that actively supports free market policies. It has proven to be a big draw for a group of people who think of bitcoin as a way of life — that is, a monetary network that is decentralized, borderless, and doesn’t answer to central banks or governments.
Austin’s “Bitcoin Commons” draws in an eclectic mix of people, including venture capitalists, bitcoin miners, and coders.
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Many hardcore bitcoiners ironically embrace the term maximalist or maxi as a way to self describe. In Texas, though maxis exist along a professional spectrum from venture capitalists, to miners, coders, company executives, and generalist techies, the eclectic tribe have a few things in common. Many are family-oriented, patriotic carnivores with an aversion to the overreach of government and a strong belief in the right to bear arms, among multiple other personal, individual liberties.
Bitcoin’s eponymous Austin lair, which is adorned with the Texas state flag and bitcoin memorabilia, has adopted Chatham House rules for many of its events to protect the identities of those conversing within its walls. One such meetup is the monthly BitDevs (short for bitcoin developers) gathering, where bitcoin builders, investors, and the bitcoin curious are all welcomed, so long as no pictures or videos are taken.
At these meetings, topics run the gamut, from detailed discussions about code to concerns that the Microsoft-maintained GitHub may pose a greater existential threat to the bitcoin network since much of the development work and conversations among coders happen on that platform. At one such gathering, the moderator of the two-hour session asked the room who ran a bitcoin node. More than half of the people in attendance raised their hands.
After attending multiple Austin BitDev meetups over the last three years, a few common conversation themes have emerged, including the focus on identifying threat vectors to the network and brainstorming workarounds. Beyond software, there are also concerns over hardware vulnerabilities, given that the ASIC chip used in bitcoin mining rigs are manufactured out of China, a country which has proven hostile to the crypto sector in recent years.
The “Bitcoin Commons” functions as a sort of clubhouse for the city’s bitcoin believers. It puts on a mix of programming, including conferences and hackathons, as well as hosts a co-working space by day.
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VCs flock back to bitcoin
The Commons hosted a hackathon, BitDevs, and a one-day conference dubbed the Bitcoin Takeover on the sidelines of the annual South by Southwest tech festival, which put on virtually no crypto programming this year.
Across those multiple gatherings, there was a newfound interest in talking about the burgeoning ecosystem of projects building on top of bitcoin’s blockchain, which began to heat up with the introduction of ordinals in Jan. 2023 — bitcoin’s version of non-fungible tokens.
One underrated driver of bitcoin’s recent rally is new programming innovations that may allow it to reach technological parity with ethereum. These advancements involve beefing up the bitcoin ecosystem with tools like smart contracts, which are programmable pieces of code that help to eliminate middlemen like banks and lawyers from transactions. That makes it easier for developers to create products and applications for consumers.
BitVM, for example, has a promising plan to do just that. It is ultimately trying to bring smart contracts to the bitcoin network, which has helped spur this renaissance of interest in layer two technology — that is, the startups being built on top of bitcoin’s base chain.
“I’ve never seen deal pacing move this aggressively in the bitcoin space in my entire career,” Carter tells CNBC.
Indeed, the VC appetite for these layer two bitcoin projects has been picking up in the last few months.
PitchBook says that the fourth quarter of 2023 was the first time in almost two years that deal value in the crypto sector had increased, reaching $1.9 billion — up 2.5% from the previous quarter. While still well off the 2021 high of $31 billion, funds are building back interest, and trust, in the space.
Grant Gilliam spent 15 years working in private equity in New York before pivoting to run a bitcoin VC fund called Ten31. This investment platform, which is focused exclusively on bitcoin, has invested $125 million of equity in aggregate since launching five years ago. More than $100 million was deployed in the last two years during the bear market.
“We invest across the bitcoin ecosystem across every major theme,” Gilliam told CNBC. “Anything that is relevant to bitcoin infrastructure, we like to say the picks and shovels of companies building products and services for holders of bitcoin.”
Gilliam, who spent a few years commuting from New York to Austin every month for the BitDevs meetup, said that some of the layer two bitcoin investments are more hype than substance, but he’s still bullish overall on the deal space.
“There’s been a lot of L2 hype lately, mainly driven by the ordinals, and inscriptions, developments or innovations, if you want to call it that,” Gilliam said. “There’s a lot of activity in that right now, but we haven’t been as focused on that. It’s our firm view that the ordinals will prove to be a passing fad.”
Gilliam says that Ten31 is focused on basic building blocks of the ecosystem, such as companies that are providing financial services, which could be custody trading and lending, or projects that are working to scale the lightning network.
Lightning, with is the layer two payment technology meant to realize bitcoin’s original vision of being peer-to-peer cash continues to struggle with the issue of reaching scale. Developers tell CNBC that a lot of engineering work remains to close that gap.
The Boys Club put on its own Austin summit on the sidelines of SXSW with programming on the new internet, crypto, and digital culture.
CNBC
Bitcoin-halving country
“Number go up” is a big mantra among bitcoiners, but as the community evolves, so too does the thinking about the price of the coin.
“Price is really an output of many inputs of human beings, building tools to make bitcoin both more secure and a greater utility,” Lewis said. “Price is the best indicator of more people coming to the conclusion that bitcoin is money, and it’s a better store of value, so it is very relevant.”
Every four years, bitcoin undergoes a market making event known as the halving. It cuts the production of new bitcoin in half, and it has typically come before a major run-up in the price of bitcoin.
Miners from around the world flocked to Texas when China banned the practice in 2021, attracted by the abundant renewable energy and a grid that’s friendly to flexible buyers of power — both ideal conditions for miners.
In April, however, the profits for these bitcoin miners will be cut in half.
For some, it may prove an Armageddon-level event. Others have braced for impact by swapping out their fleet of machines for more efficient rigs. The price run-up in bitcoin has also helped to give some of these companies a buffer in their profit margins.
West Texas miner Jamie McAvity has 60 megawatts at his mining site. It runs on a part of the grid that is 90% powered by a mix of solar and wind power.
“If you’ve been in for more than one cycle, you have situated yourself in a place where you can resist the halving to the best of your ability,” McAvity told CNBC at Austin’s Bitcoin Commons.
McAvity, who previously worked for ten years as a trader on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange, added that ETF flows have helped to change the pricing dynamics for the world’s largest coin.
“The spot ETF inflows are so massive that reducing the available supply of newly mined bitcoins from 900 to 450, is probably going to be immaterial relative to that,” he said.
“But who knows, the ETFs could cool off for a while, and it’s hard for someone to credibly say that a reduction in supply is not going to change the market price equilibrium, because that’s a fundamental principle of market economics,” he added.
Altcoin mania
A ten minute walk west from the Bitcoin Commons is the Austin Proper Hotel, a five-star establishment where the lighting is intentionally dim to strike a certain mood. Here, the Boys Club, a popular and buzzy, female-led organization which self-describes as a “social collective bringing new voices to the new internet” put on its own crypto conference on the sidelines of South by Southwest.
The Boys Club caters to a more blockchain agnostic crowd, where the focus is less on exclusivity to one coin or chain — and more about borrowing the best features from across the ecosystem to solve problems in the real world.
CNBC caught up with Micha Benoliel at the one-day summit. Benoliel built Nodle, a decentralized wireless network that’s now getting into the business of using the blockchain to battle AI-powered deepfakes.
“Blockchain is the only way to make a record that is immutable, and is going to prove the time at which this photo has been taken, or video, and also to help you prove the location and other elements that are going to reinforce that proof, so it creates a real immutable proof of authenticity,” he said.
The Boys Club put on its own Austin summit on the sidelines of SXSW with programming on the new internet, crypto, and digital culture.
CNBC
The one-day popup event gathered together more of a web3 crowd to talk about everything from the latest trends in tokenization to the resurgence of on-chain meme culture.
Similar to other bull runs in the price of bitcoin, some altcoins have seen a meteoric rise alongside blue chip names in crypto, because they’re seen as a comparatively cheaper buy.
Dogecoin, a meme-coin that was started as a joke, now has a market cap of nearly $25 billion, placing it in the top ten most valuable cryptocurrencies on the planet. Boden, a coin named after President Joe Biden, saw a run-up of more than 800% in a six-hour window after Super Tuesday, and the newly popular DogWifHat is collectively worth more than $2 billion.
Typically, this is the bellwether of a peak bubble moment, but analysts say that despite frothy conditions, this bull run is different to past cycles.
The price of bitcoin is cyclical, and it sees price run-ups roughly every four years. Each time, the price floor is higher. What’s also a departure this time around is the fact that institutional money is here in a way that it hasn’t been during past bull runs.
Fundamentals in the crypto market are playing a big role, as well.
In a note from JPMorgan on Mar. 15, analysts credit ether, the world’s second-biggest crypto token by market cap, for being a significant driver of crypto’s recent gains, including Coinbase‘s stock price rise. Ether has rallied nearly 50% so far this year, recently breaching the $4,000 price level and outpacing bitcoin’s returns, before paring back some gains.
“While the focus of the cryptocurrency marketplace has been the net new money going into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and the positive impact on Bitcoin token prices (here, the spot Bitcoin ETF and its ultimate launch in January has driven the cryptoecosystem over the past several months), we see impact of ETH appreciation also as particularly meaningful,” JPMorgan wrote.
Regulators in the U.S. remain a universal concern for the crypto sector, especially amid reports of the Securities and Exchange Commission probing crypto companies building on the ethereum network.
Still, many in the space, including coders and investors remain optimistic.
Ethereum, the blockchain that underpins ether, underwent a major upgrade on Mar. 13 dubbed Dencun. Developers told CNBC it was expected to slash transaction fees by up to 90%. That is game-changing not just for the end-users, but also for the coders building apps on top of ethereum.
Base, crypto exchange Coinbase’s self-built layer two network, is ethereum-based and allows developers to more easily build decentralized apps. Coinbase’s Base lead, Jesse Pollak, anticipates this will open the door to applications in both the gaming and decentralized social media arena now that it is no longer nearly as cost prohibitive to build these types of programs.
“The thing that is happening with Dencun is we’re going to create a whole new kind of storage on ethereum that’s purpose built for Layer 2s like Base,” Pollak told CNBC.
“That means that right now we pay a ton to ethereum, and we’re going to pay a lot less, which is going to lower the fees for everyone. Because ethereum is basically going to build a product purpose built for us,” continued Pollak.
Chris Dixon, crypto chief at venture firm a16z, echoed that sentiment, noting that part of their portfolio is focused on these startups.
“The core idea is that if you build a social network, or a game or a financial service, on top of the blockchain, it has all sorts of benefits where the money and control flow out to the users and the creators that access the network, as opposed to the companies that control it,” said Dixon. “In the same way that steel was a better way to build bridges and buildings than wood was in the Industrial Revolution, blockchains are a building material.”
Hyundai’s electric fastback is due for some major upgrades that could finally make it the Tesla Model 3 challenger it was designed to be. The new Hyundai IONIQ 6 is better than ever, featuring a stylish new look both inside and out, an NACS port for charging at Tesla Superchargers, and even more driving range than expected.
The new Hyundai IONIQ 6 is a long-range, stylish EV
It’s been just about three years since Hyundai unveiled the IONIQ 6 for the first time at the 2022 Busan International Motor Show.
Hyundai’s “electrified streamliner” arrived as what was expected to be a genuine rival to the Tesla Model 3, boasting over 350 miles of driving range, fast charging in under 20 minutes, and an affordable price tag.
Despite this, the electric sedan has failed to live up to its hype. In the US, IONIQ 6 sales fell 6% last year, with only 12,264 units sold. According to Cox Automotive, Tesla sold 189,903 Model 3s in the US last year, a decrease from 2023, partly due to the launch of the refreshed model.
With the upgraded IONIQ due out later this year, Hyundai’s EV might finally match the Model 3 as another long-range, fast-charging, affordable electric sedan.
The new Hyundai IONIQ 6 has just become Korea’s longest-range electric sedan. It was officially certified by the Ministry of Environment with a range of up to 568 km (353 miles), surpassing the Kia EV4 at 549 km (341 miles).
On the WLTP scale, that could translate to nearly 700 km (430 miles) range. The current IONIQ 6 is rated with a WLTP range of up to 614 km (382 miles).
For those in the US, the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 6 already provides an EPA-estimated range of up to 342 miles. The new model is expected to achieve a range of over 350 miles.
The new IONIQ 6 features an upgraded 84 kWh battery, similar to the 2025 IONIQ 5, providing increased driving range. Hyundai’s new IONIQ 5 is now rated with an EPA-estimated driving range of 318 miles, up from 303 miles in the 2024 model.
Like the IONIQ 5 refresh, the new IONIQ 6 is expected to arrive with a built-in NACS port, allowing access to Tesla Superchargers.
Hyundai unveiled the new IONIQ 6 design at the Seoul Mobility Show in April, saying it “enhanced every line and detail to make the IONIQ 6 simpler and more progressive.” And last week, Hyundai teased a sporty “N” line mode coming soon. We got a sneak peek of it in public a few days later after it was spotted driving in Korea. You can tell, it’s already shaping up to be a significant upgrade.
As for prices and final specs, we’ll have to wait until closer to launch later this year. Check back soon for more info. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.
Will Hyundai’s electric sedan finally compete with the Model 3? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
Source: Yucca Post Korea
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Environment
Markets are shrugging off the Israel-Iran conflict. Some strategists warn of complacency
Fire and smoke rise into the sky after an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot on June 15, 2025 in Tehran, Iran.
Getty Images | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Global investors may be underpricing the impact of a conflict between Israel and Iran, market watchers warned on Monday, as stocks rallied despite escalating warfare in the Middle East.
The two regional powers continued trading fire on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive day of fighting since Israel launched airstrikes against Iran last week.
Despite the continued fighting — with hundreds reported dead — global stock markets sustained a positive momentum on Monday, seemingly shrugging off broader concerns about the conflict.
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, warned on Monday that there was a risk markets were underpricing “the risk of a major conflagration in the Middle East,” particularly when it comes to the energy market.
European shares opened broadly higher on Monday, with Asia-Pacific stocks and U.S. stock futures also trading in the green. Even Middle Eastern indexes saw gains on Monday, with the Tel Aviv 35 index last seen trading 1% higher after falling 1.5% last week.
“This is partly because there are so many moving parts and geopolitical considerations, and partly because the potential outcomes are so unthinkable,” Mould said. “In a worst case, oil and share prices would be the least of our worries.”
In a Monday morning note, David Roche, a strategist at Quantum Strategy, warned that the conflict between Israel and Iran “will last longer than the Israeli lightning-strikes that the market is used to.”
Torbjorn Soltvedtp, principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, agreed, saying an escalation remained of “huge concern.”
“What we have now is very different, and what we’re seeing is effectively a war and an open-ended one,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
“And of course, that is something that has huge implications, not just for the region, but also for energy markets and how they interpret what is happening. You know, minute by minute and day by day.”
Energy markets have moved the most on news of the attacks, as the Israel-Iran conflict stoked supply concerns.
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While Friday marked the biggest single-day gain for crude since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, however, global benchmark Brent crude futures — last seen at $73.75 a barrel — were still far below the prices seen in the aftermath of Moscow’s incursion into Ukrainian territory.
“A lull is the most likely outcome before later escalation when Iran rejects US Trump’s overtures,” Roche said. “The market is likely to mistake the lull for lasting peace. I would use the lull to buy into energy assets as a safe haven.”
‘Very modest’ market reaction
Some market watchers are taking a somewhat less pessimistic view, however.
In a note on Monday, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid noted that while both Iran and Israel had traded retaliatory blows, they had so far avoided “the most extreme escalatory steps.”
“As geopolitical shocks are becoming more frequent it seems it’s now at least a yearly occurrence that we refer to our equity strategists’ work on the impact of such shocks and how long it takes for the market to recover from them,” he said.
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“The typical pattern is for the S&P 500 to pull back about -6% in 3 weeks after the shock but then rally all the way back in another 3,” Reid said. “[Our strategists] believe this incident will likely be milder than this unless we get notable escalation as they highlight that equity positioning is already underweight … and a -6% selloff would need it to fall all the way to the bottom of its usual range.”
Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, told CNBC on Monday that he feels the market is correct in not pricing a huge escalation, such as the U.S. being drawn into the fray, or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz, nestled between Iran and Oman, is a vital oil transit route through which millions of barrels of oil are transported every day.
“Still, the market reaction has been very modest, so there is room for disappointment if things were to escalate,” Gijsels conceded on Monday.
Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas, is increasingly looking like a game of smoke and mirrors, and a dangerous one at that.
CEO Elon Musk claims Tesla is being “paranoid with safety”, but it is taking risks for the purpose of optics.
It’s all about optics
Musk has been wrong about self-driving for years. His track record is marked by missed deadlines and broken promises.
He said:
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year. Without the need for a single touch, including the charger.”
That was in 2016, and therefore, he claimed it would happen by the end of 2017. Today, in 2025, Tesla is still not capable of doing that.
Musk has claimed that Tesla would achieve unsupervised self-driving every year for the last decade. It has become a running gag, with many YouTube videos featuring his predictions and a Wikipedia page tracking his missed deadlines.
Famously, the predictions are about Tesla achieving self-driving “by the end of the year” or “next year.”
This time, Musk has set a clear deadline of “June” for Tesla to launch its robotaxi service.
With Waymo pulling ahead in the autonomous driving race, now operating in four cities, providing over 200,000 paid rides per week, and soon expanding with 2,000 more vehicles, Musk needs a win to maintain the illusion he has been pushing for a while: that Tesla is the leader in autonomous driving.
He recently claimed about Tesla’s self-driving technology:
No one is even close. There’s really not a close second. We felt like it was a bit of an iPhone moment — you either get it or you don’t, and there’s a massive gap.
This is becoming increasingly difficult to claim amid Waymo’s expansion. Still, Musk believes that the robotaxi launch in Austin will help maintain the illusion, even though Waymo has already been operating like Tesla’s plans in Austin for years in other cities and for months in Austin itself.
Moving of the Goal Post
We have often described what Tesla is doing in Austin with its planned “robotaxi” launch as a moving of the goalpost.
For years, Tesla has promised unsupervised self-driving in all its vehicles built since 2016. Musk explicitly said that customers who bought Tesla’s Full Self-Driving package would be able to “go to sleep” at the wheel of their vehicles and wake up in another city.
Now, Musk is claiming that Tesla has “solved” self-driving with its “robotaxi” launch, but it is vastly different from prior promises.
Tesla plans to operate its own small internal fleet of vehicles with dedicated software optimized for a geo-fenced area of Austin and supported by “plenty of teleoperation.” This is a night-and-day difference compared to deploying unsupervised self-driving in customer vehicles, as promised since 2016.
Musk himself is on record saying, “If you need a geofence area, you don’t have real self-driving.”
Now, Musk is on record saying that Tesla will only launch the service in a limited area in Austin and even avoid certain intersections that Tesla is not sure it can handle:
We will geo‑fence it. It’s not going to take intersections unless we are highly confident it’s going to do well with that intersection. Or it will just take a route around that intersection.
In addition to geofencing, Tesla is also utilizing teleoperation to control vehicles with human operators remotely.
We reported last year when Tesla started building a “teleoperation team.”
Despite Tesla originally planning to launch the robotaxi service on June 12, and now “tentatively” on June 22, the automaker posted a new job listing days ago for engineers to help build a low-latency teleoperation system to operate its “self-driving” cars and robots.
The use of geofencing and teleoperation results in Tesla having the same limitations as Waymo, which Musk claimed means it’s “not real self-driving and not scalable to the customer fleet as promised by Tesla for years.
‘Paranoid’ about Safety
Musk claims that Tesla is being “super paranoid” about safety, but you have to take his word for it.
We have pointed it out before, but it’s worth repeating: Waymo tested its self-driving vehicles in Austin for six months with safety drivers and then for another six months without safety drivers before launching its autonomous ride-hailing service in the city.
As for Tesla, it tested its vehicles with safety drivers throughout Austin for a few months. Then, Musk announced in late May, only weeks before the planned launch, that it had started testing without safety drivers.
Despite many people being on the lookout for these driverless Tesla Robotaxis, they were only spotted for the first time last week.
Since then, only two confirmed Tesla vehicles without drivers have been spotted testing.
Furthermore, several of those vehicles were spotted with Tesla employees in the front passenger seat. While Musk claims that there are “no safety driver”, these “passengers” pay attention at all times and have access to a kill switch to stop the vehicle.
They virtually operate like “safety drivers”, but they are on the passenger seat rather than the driver’s seat.
Tesla is currently still in the “testing” phase based on the listing with the state regulators, which also mentions “no” safety drivers:
To go back to the “optics” for a second, Tesla’s head of self-driving, Ashok Elluswamy, has shared this conveniently cropped image of Tesla’s “robotaxis” being tested in Austin:
The image crops out the passenger seat of the car in front, which would show a Tesla employee, and the driver’s seat of the trailing car, which would show a driver, as spotted in Austin over the last week.
There’s also no way to know precisely at what rates these safety passengers and remote operators are intervening on the self-driving vehicles.
Tesla has never released any intervention or disengagement data about its self-driving and ADAS programs despite using “miles between disengagements” as a metric to track improvements and Musk claiming for years that self-driving is a “solved problem” for Tesla.
As we have previously reported, the best available data comes from a crowdsourced effort. Musk has previously shared and misrepresented the dataset in a positive light.
Currently, the data for the combined two most recent updates (v13.2.8-9) on Tesla’s latest hardware (HW4), which is reportedly the same hardware used in Tesla’s “robotaxis” in Austin, currently sits at 444 miles between critical disengagements:
That would imply a high risk of an accident every 444 miles without a driver paying attention and ready to take control at all times.
Tesla is also currently actively fighting in court against organizations trying to access its self-driving crash data.
There are currently efforts to raise concerns about Tesla’s “robotaxi” deployment in Austin.
The Dawn Project attempted to convey the potential danger of Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi fleet by demonstrating how Tesla vehicles fail to stop for school buses with their stop signs activated and can potentially run over children on the latest public Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) v13.2.9:
Musk has repeatedly highlighted that the vehicles used for the robotaxi service in Austin are the same that it currently delivers to customers, like this one used in this test.
However, they use a new, custom software optimized for Austin, with supposedly more parameters, allowing for greater performance. Still, there is no way to verify this, as Tesla has not released any data.
Electrek’s Take
I can’t lie. I’m getting extremely concerned about this. I don’t think that we can trust Musk or Tesla in their current state to launch this safely.
As I previously stated, I think Tesla’s FSD would be an incredible product if it were sold as a regular ADAS system, rather than something called “Full Self-Driving,” with the promise that it would eventually become unsupervised.
Tesla wouldn’t face a significant liability for not being able to fulfill its promises to customers, as it has already confirmed for HW3 owners. Additionally, safety would be improved, as drivers wouldn’t become so complacent with the technology.
Speaking of those failed promises, they are also what’s driving Tesla to push for this launch in Austin.
As Waymo’s former long-time CEO John Krafcik said about Tesla’s effort: “There are many ways to fake a robotaxi service.”
Musk badly needs a win with self-driving, and he saw an opportunity to get one by getting his gullible fanbase of Tesla shareholders excited about a glimpse at its long-promised future full of “Tesla robotaxis.”
As he previously stated, he knows full well that the way Tesla is doing this is not more scalable than Waymo even if the hardware cost per vehicle is lower. The hardware cost is negligible compared to teleoperation, development, insurance, and other expenses.
Even with all the smoke and mirrors involved with this project, it’s becoming clear that Tesla is not even ready for it.
Now, the question is whether Musk lets the June deadline slip and takes another ‘L’ on self-driving, or if he pushes for Tesla to launch the potentially dangerous service with lots of limitations.
With the federal government in complete shambles and the Texas government being too close to Musk and Tesla, I wouldn’t count on the regulators to act here. Although they probably should.
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