Yet another study shows plug-in hybrids aren’t as clean as we thought
A new report by the European Commission adds yet another real-world data point showing that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles create much more emissions than we previously thought – by an average of 3.5 times as much as lab testing indicates.
Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are thought to bring the best of both worlds – a large enough battery to take care of your daily tasks, paired with a gas engine for longer trips or when you can’t find a charger. There are downsides in cost and complexity, but the powertrain choice does provide more options than others.
For this reason, PHEVs have long been thought of as an ideal transitional technology between gas vehicles and electric ones. People would be able to do most of their driving on electricity and only occasionally use gas.
The problem is… that doesn’t happen.
Multiple recent studies have shown that in the real world, plug-in hybrids pollute much more than their labels would indicate – though still less than pure-fossil vehicles – both because they overstate their capabilities in electric-only mode and because people simply don’t plug them in.
The latter is referred to as “utility factor” – the percentage of time that a PHEV gets used on electric drive rather than its combustion engine. In reality, PHEV utility factors are much lower than emissions testing credits them for, which means that in practice, PHEV emissions are much higher because they use the combustion engine more often than expected.
Previous studies were done in Europe by T&E and TU Graz (T&E has done multiple studies on this) and by the ICCT utilizing data from California. In each case, PHEV emissions and fuel use were much higher than expected, though it differs for various regions and car models. Models with larger batteries – “EV-first” designs – tended to have higher utility factors and lower emissions.
However, this report is important because it was done by a government entity, rather than by NGOs.
The new EU Commission report shows “emissions gaps” – that is, the difference between expected and real-world emissions for PHEVs – that are very high in all examined countries in Europe. Gaps fell between 176% (Finland), up to 287% (Poland).
The “emissions gap” differs from country to country due to patterns in vehicle use. For example, Germany tends to have lower utility factors, and thus a high emissions gap of 284%, because PHEVs are often leased as company cars, giving companies significant benefits, and then driven like gas cars and never plugged in. But the numbers are high regardless of country.
An emissions gap also exists for petrol- and diesel-fueled vehicles, with each of them also emitting more than WLTP numbers would indicate – and therefore getting lower mileage, and having higher fuel costs, than consumers would expect by looking at the label. But those emit about ~20% more, whereas PHEVs emit on average over 200% more.
This data is particularly relevant given recent discussions about regulatory requirements for vehicles. Regulators have softened some targets, in many cases giving PHEVs additional credit for emissions reductions that data shows us are underwhelming.
For example, California’s 2035 phaseout for gas vehicles still allows 20% of cars to be PHEVs – which we now have additional evidence will emit much more than expected. Though those rules do have certain minimum requirements for PHEVs (which nevertheless could perhaps use updating to reflect real-world findings).
Also, the EPA’s new rules, finalized last week, offered multiple pathways for manufacturers to comply, one of which relies heavily on PHEVs. But it also explicitly acknowledged that current utility factor estimates are too high and need to be revised downwards, but pushed back implementation of the new utility factors to 2031 instead of 2027 – allowing PHEVs to continue to pollute for years further.
The Commission’s report will be used in future EU regulations to inform utility factors in official test procedures. A rule change is already in the plans for 2025, but the report says that the rules might need to “further adjusted” given the real-world data within it.
Electrek’s Take
We’ve long thought that PHEVs are only good if they actually get used, and in order to do that, you need to design PHEVs to be used on battery charge only.
There are a few good PHEVs that fit this description, like the Chevy Volt and BMW i3, and these models tend to have much higher utility factors than other models do. But cars which, for example, kick you out of EV mode as soon as you hit the accelerator, aren’t particularly useful in terms of avoiding fossil fuel use.
And now here we have data to confirm, once again, that PHEVs are not as clean as some – like Toyota, for example – might have you think.
I certainly know people who have had less-serious PHEVs and never or rarely plugged them in – like a friend who had an early Plug-in Prius that he didn’t even bother to plug into 120V because of its minuscule battery, and because his car’s electricity use wouldn’t be enough to make it worthwhile to install a charger and set up time-of-use charging for discounted electricity as his house.
Fortunately (?), PHEVs have also historically had the least consumer uptake, so there aren’t that many cars currently affected by this undercounting of emissions. But it is still important that we arrange regulations around this new knowledge of real-world emissions.
While EV and conventional fossil-fueled hybrid sales are both rising rapidly, PHEV sales have had significantly more modest sales growth. Part of the reason for this is likely because people who aren’t interested in plugging in will just buy a conventional hybrid, and people who are interested in plugging in would prefer the simplicity of full electric drive.
There are solutions going forward, though. As suggested in the previous T&E and ICCT studies, PHEVs should be designed with an electric-first mentality, with large enough batteries to be practical for everyday use, and regulatory schemes should use these real-world values and be centered around ensuring these vehicles be used on electric power instead of being given tax breaks for just driving around on gas. Regulators should change their schemes to take this knowledge into account – and they should do it now, not in 2031.
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EV sales kept up their momentum in December 2024, with incentives playing a big role, according to the latest Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book report.
December’s strong EV sales saw an average transaction price (ATP) of $55,544, which helped push the industry-wide ATP higher, according to Kelley Blue Book. The December ATP for an EV was higher year-over-year by 0.8%, slightly below the industry average, and higher month-over-month by 1.1%. Tesla ATPs were higher year-over-year by 10.5%.
Incentives for EVs remained elevated in December, although they were slightly lower month-over-month at 14.3% of ATP, down from 14.7% in November.
EV incentives were higher by an impressive 41% year-over-year and have been above 12% of ATP for six consecutive months. Strong sales incentives, which averaged more than $6,700 per sale in 2024, were one reason EV sales surpassed 1.3 million units last year, according to Cox Automotive, a new record for volume and share.
(My colleague Jameson Dow reported yesterday, “In 2024, the world sold 3.5 million more EVs than it did in the previous year … This increase is larger than the 3.2 million increase in EV sales from the previous year – meaning that EV sales aren’t just up, but that the rate of growth is itself increasing.”)
Kelley Blue Book estimated that in December, approximately 84,000 vehicles – or 5.6% of total sales – transacted at prices higher than $80,000 – the highest volume ever. KBB lumps gas cars and EVs together into this luxury vehicle category, so this is where Tesla Cybertruck is slotted.
However, Tesla bundles sales figures of Cybertruck with Model S, Model X, and Tesla Semi(!) into a category it calls “other models,” so we don’t know for sure exactly how many Cybertrucks Tesla sold in Q4, much less in December. However, Electrek‘s Fred Lambert estimates between 9,000 and 12,000 Cybertrucks were sold in Q4, and that’s not a stellar sales figure.
What will January bring when it comes to EV ATPs? What about tax credits? Check back in a month and I’ll fill you in.
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Tesla is now claiming that Cybertruck was the ‘best-selling electric pickup in US’ last year despite not even reporting the number of deliveries.
There’s a lot of context needed here.
As we often highlighted, Tesla is sadly one of, if not the most, opaque automakers regarding sales reports.
Tesla doesn’t break down sales per model or even region.
For comparison, here’s Ford’s Q4 2024 sales report compared to Tesla’s:
You could argue that Tesla has fewer models than Ford, and that’s true, but Tesla’s report literally has two lines despite having six different models.
There’s no reason not to offer a complete breakdown like all other automakers other than trying to make it hard to verify the health of each vehicle program.
This has been the case with the Cybertruck. Tesla is bundling its Cybertruck deliveries with Model S, Model X, and Tesla Semi deliveries.
Despite this lack of disclosure, Tesla has been able to claim that the Cybertruck has become “the best-selling electric pickup truck” in the US in 2024:
It very well might be true. Ford disclosed 33,510 F-150 Lightning truck deliveries in the US in 2024 while most estimates are putting Cybertruck deliveries at around 40,000 units.
Those are global deliveries, but Tesla only delivered the Cybertruck in the US, Canada, and Mexico in 2024, and most of the deliveries are believed to be in the US.
However, there’s essential context needed here, as we highlighted in our recent ‘Tesla Cybertruck sales are disastrous‘ article.
First off, Tesla had a backlog of over 1 million reservations for the Cybertruck that it has been building since 2019. This led many to believe Tesla already had years of demand baked in for the truck and that production would be the constraint.
However, based on estimates, again, because Tesla refuses to disclose the data, Cybertruck deliveries were either flat or down in Q4 versus Q3 despite Tesla introducing cheaper versions of the vehicle and ramping up production.
Again, that’s after just about 40,000 deliveries.
Furthermore, with almost 11,000 deliveries in Q4 in the US, Ford more likely than not outsold Cybertruck with the F-150 Lightning in Q4.
Electrek’s Take
Tesla is in damage control here. There’s no doubt that it is having issues selling the Cybertruck.
Inventory is full of Cybertrucks and Tesla is now discounting them and offering free lifetime Supercharging.
Tesla is great at ramping up production, and it’s clear the Cybertruck is not production-constrained anymore. It is demand-constrained despite having over 1 million reservations.
Again, those reservations were made before Tesla unveiled the production version, which happened to have less range and cost significantly more.
The upcoming cheaper single motor version should help with demand, but I have serious doubts Tesla can ramp this program up to more than 100,000 units in the US.
As a reminder, Tesla installed a production capacity of 250,000 units annually and Musk said he could see Tesla selling 500,000 Cybertrucks per year.
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