Cocoa prices are soaring to record levels. What it means for consumers and why ‘the worst is still yet to come’
A farmers holds cocoa beans while he is drying them at a village in Sinfra, Ivory Coast, on April 29, 2023.
Luc Gnago | Reuters
Consumers could start to see the effect of surging cocoa prices as the world faces the worst supply deficit in decades, with farmers in West Africa struggling against bad weather, disease and failing trees.
Cocoa futures for May delivery surged to an all-time intraday high of $10,080 per metric ton Tuesday before ending the day down 0.3% to settle at $9,622. Cocoa has more than tripled in cost over the past year and is up 129% in 2024.
Hershey CEO Michele Buck told CNBC last month that the company has a hedging strategy to manage the price volatility. The National Confectioners Association told CNBC in an email that the industry is working with retailers to “manage down costs” and keep chocolate affordable for consumers.
Though the large chocolate companies were well-hedged last year and did not have to immediately pass on high prices to consumers, there is only so much the industry can do to absorb costs, said Paul Joules, a commodities analyst at Rabobank.
The world is facing the largest cocoa supply deficit in more than 60 years and consumers could start to see the effect at the end of this year or early 2025, Joules said. The International Cocoa Organization has forecast a supply deficit of 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season, a 405% increase from a deficit of 74,000 tons in the previous season.
“The worst is still yet to come,” Joules said. Cocoa prices will likely remain elevated for some time because there are no easy fixes to the systemic issues facing the market, he said.
Cocoa in past 12 months
Consumers could face higher prices or “shrinkflation” in the form of smaller chocolate bars, Joules said. Companies might also adjust ingredients to use less cocoa in some products, he said. The worst sticker shock would come from dark chocolate, which has a very high cocoa content, the analyst said.
David Branch, sector manager at Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, said consumers could see higher prices as soon as Easter, which is on Sunday.
“Given that cocoa prices and other manufacturing costs have been rising steadily over the past year, it is likely consumers will see a price spike on chocolate candy this Easter,” Branch told clients in a research note this month.
Cocoa prices have been on a tear due to supply disruptions in the key producing nations of Ivory Coast and Ghana, Joules said. The two countries represent about 60% of global cocoa production.
Crops have been hit by black pod disease and swollen shoot virus and many trees are past their maximum yield potential because there has not been a major round of planting since the early 2000s, Joules said.
Heavy rains exacerbated the disease issues, Branch said, and the El Niño weather phenomenon has also led to drier conditions resulting in lower cocoa yields in previous years. Seasonal harmattan winds were more extreme this year, also affecting crop yields, Branch said.
Farmers in Ivory Coast are increasingly exiting cocoa production for more lucrative crops such as rubber, Joules said. The governments of Ghana and Ivory Coast set fixed prices for the farmers at the start of the season so they are not benefiting from the currently rally, the analyst said.
The recent runup is likely due to panic among some commercial buyers rather than market speculation, Joules said. Buyers see the magnitude of the supply deficit and are trying to secure the cocoa that is available, according to the analyst.
Speculators contributed to the early leg of the rally last year as they bet on higher prices by increasing their long positions, Joules said, but they have been exiting those positions this year to book profits.
The spike in prices has hit chocolate giant Hershey, which sees flat earnings for the year. Hershey stock is down about 22% over the past 12 months, while Nestle’s Switzerland-listed shares have shed about 13% during the same period.
Workers transport soil containing rare earth elements for export at a port in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China.
China Stringer Network | Reuters
Like the U.S., Europe is also feeling the pressure to keep China sweet in order to maintain supplies of rare earth elements, which are vital for its strategic industries in the region such as auto production, green energy and defense.
Europe is heavily dependent on China for supplies of the world’s 17 rare earth elements and has been looking to calm stormy waters with Beijing over supplies, while looking for alternative sources of critical minerals — including in its own back yard.
That’s a long process, however, and for now, Europe is as vulnerable as other major consumers of rare earths, and particularly the U.S., when it comes to Beijing’s ability to turn the tap off on supplies.
Officials from Germany and the Netherlands are in Beijing this week for talks with their Chinese counterparts on China’s controls on rare earths exports and semiconductor chips which have made European industries vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions.
China dominates the rare earths market from mining to refining, with data from the International Energy Agency showing that, in 2024, China was responsible for 59% of the world’s rare earths mining, 91% of its refining and 94% of the manufacuring of permanent magnets which are commonly used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, industrial motors, data centers and defense systems.
As the world’s single largest supplier of a component that’s critical to so much manufacturing, China’s dominance has made “global supply chains in strategic sectors – such as energy, automotive, defense and AI data centres – vulnerable to potential disruptions,” the IEA noted.
That potential for disruption came to the fore this year when, in April and October, Beijing announced licensing requirements, and later export controls, on its rare earth supplies and technologies.
Those controls were suspended for a year as a result of a trade truce reached in October between China and the U.S. reached but major rare earth importers such as the U.S. and EU, which imports around 70% of rare earth supplies — and almost all of its rare earth magnets — from China, are all too aware of its vulnerabilities to geopolitical disruptions.
Barriers to diversification
Last month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the bloc was launching the “RESourceEU” plan aimed at reducing reliance on critical raw materials from China “in the short, medium and long term.” She said the bloc could do this by recycling existing raw materials, such as those in batteries, and by joint purchasing to stockpiling.
Von der Leyen also said the EU would boost investment in strategic projects “for the production and processing of critical raw materials here in Europe,” and would speed up work on critical raw materials partnerships with countries like Ukraine, Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Chile and Greenland.
“The world we face today rewards speed, not hesitation, because today’s world is unforgiving. And the global economy is completely different than it was even a few years ago. Europe cannot do things the same way anymore. We learned this lesson painfully with energy; we will not repeat it with critical materials,” she said, referencing the bloc’s reliance, before the Ukraine war, on Russian oil and gas.
Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commissioner for Economy and Productivity, told CNBC Monday that the bloc was working to diversify its rare earth supplies but that this would take time.
“I would say there is some positive news, so China has suspended now for 12 months those additional export controls, which were announced in October, which gives us some time. But I also would say it emphasizes the need for the EU to diversify its rare earth and critical minerals supplies, because of many on those rare earths, we are depending more than 90% on China’s supplies,” Dombrovskis said.
Necessity the mother of invention?
Europe itself has reserves of rare earth materials with deposits found in Turkey, Sweden and Norway but the problem is that it doesn’t have the operations to mine those materials, let alone refine and process them — unlike China, which has decades of experience, investment and infrastructure that has fueled its global processing dominance.
Europe is also more encumbered with long approval processes and environmental standards when it comes to mining, meaning any regional plans to develop those rare earth deposits could take years. Public opposition is also a factor that has not shackled China.
A view of the NEO magnetic plant in Narva, a city in northeastern Estonia. A plant producing rare-earth magnets for Europe’s electric vehicle and wind-energy sectors.
Xinhua News Agency | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
The need to diversify from China quickly could cause officials to lower those barriers, however and there are already signs of action, with Europe’s first rare earth magnet production plant being opened in Estonia in September. Backed by funding from both Canada and the EU, the plant’s raw materials are coming from Australia and Malaysia.
“There’s probably a lot more deposits in Europe but … there are barriers to bringing that online,” Willis Thomas, principal consultant at CRU Group, told CNBC.
“But if we’re getting into a world where risks are being realized on trade tensions, I think that that will continue to push everyone to build out the supply chain and a bit more resilience on it, but it does take some time, and there’s limited expertise.”
What’s also worrying for Europe is that being unable to control the sources and supply of raw materials could mean that its technological and green ambitions suffer.
“Europe’s race towards net zero and digital leadership depend on materials it does not control,” Hamed Ghiaie, professor of Economics and Public Policy at ESCP Europe, and Filippo Gorelli, an analyst at Nexans, said in analysis for the World Economic Forum.
“For decades, Europe treated raw materials as a commodity issue, rather than a strategic one. That complacency is becoming costly,” they added.
“What is at stake is climate targets and economic resilience. Shortages of rare earths, gallium or germanium could slow semiconductor fabrication, AI development and even wind-power installation. In short, Europe cannot build a green or digital future on supply chains it doesn’t control,” they concluded.
Aviation startup Electra made history last month when its EL2 became the first hybrid-electric Ultra Short Take-off and Landing (uSTOL) aircraft to successfully complete helicopter-like take-offs and landings at the Watertown International Airport.
Founded to provide affordable air travel without airports, emissions, or noise, Electra’s stated goal was to build an aircraft that could deliver on the promises of eVTOL aircraft at a significantly reduced cost compared to its more drone-like competitors. In that context, the demonstration at Watertown isn’t a publicity stunt, but part of concerted effort to validate Electra’s uSTOL performance under real-world conditions at a commercial airport — exactly the kind of place that regional operators, cargo carriers, and emergency responders actually fly in and out of.
Hitting those marks now will help Electra clear a path for FAA certification and prove that the company can deliver on the $9 billion worth of promises its made (so far).
“Electra is grateful to the team at Watertown International Airport for enabling this demonstration of the EL2’s Ultra Short capabilities in an off-runway capacity,” explains Tom Carto, director of market development at Electra. “Our Ultra Short aircraft will offer the potential to increase the use of general aviation airports and expand the capacity of larger hubs by enabling takeoffs and landings on ramps and taxiways instead of runways, feeding in regional connections without adding to runway congestion. These transformative and practical capabilities will open the door to Direct Aviation and point-to-point connections in a way that will make it easier for people to get from the where they are to where they want to go.”
The EL2’s innovative “blown lift” design features eight electric motors on the plane’s wings, enabling take-off and landing in as little as 150 feet.
Electra says the final version of its aircraft will be able operate from airfields as small as 300 x 100 ft (90 x 30 m), or about one-tenth the length of a standard airport runway. That means that, even if these eSTOL aircraft don’t open up quite as many spaces for air travel as eVTOLs, do, they’ll still be extremely flexible – and more than capable of operating from the roofs of many existing buildings and parking structures.
Obviously
And, of course, the Air Force wants one.
NOTE: in response to some of the comments, I want to point out that the Electra is capable of sustained, electric-only powered flight and uses the genset for remote operations/extended range. I should have made that clearer. This is arguably more EREV than EV.
SOURCES | IMAGES: Electra; via Oswego County Business.
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The US Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office (LPO) closed a $1 billion loan to restart Three Mile Island Unit 1, a nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island in Londonderry Township, Pennsylvania.
The money is being loaned to Constellation Energy Generation, which is renaming the 835 megawatt (MW) Three Mile Island Unit 1 the Crane Clean Energy Center. Constellation said in September 2024 that it would restart the reactor under a power purchase agreement with Microsoft, which needs more clean power to feed its growing data-center demand.
The project is estimated to cost around $1.6 billion, and the DOE says the project will create around 600 jobs. The reactor is expected to start generating power again in 2027.
Three Mile Island Unit 1 (in the foreground in the photo above) went offline in 2019 because it could no longer compete with cheaper natural gas, but it wasn’t decommissioned. It’s capable of powering the equivalent of approximately 800,000 homes. It’s on the same site as the Unit 2 reactor (in the background in the photo above) that went into partial nuclear meltdown in 1979, and is known as the worst commercial nuclear accident in US history.
When asked about the loan’s timing, Greg Beard, senior adviser to the Loan Programs Office, told reporters on a call that it would “lower the cost of capital and make power cheaper for those PJM [Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland] ratepayers.” Data centers are driving up electricity costs for consumers.
Read more: DOE props up dying coal with $625M days after Wright mocks clean energy subsidies
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