NHL playoff watch: Who will win the battle for the Central Division crown?
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Tim Kavanagh, ESPN.com
The race for the regular-season division titles is down to two teams in the Atlantic and Metro, and perhaps already won by the Vancouver Canucks in the Pacific. But the Central is our focus today, with two teams tied in standings points at the top and another just four behind.
Who will ultimately earn the division’s No. 1 seed?
The Colorado Avalanche are in the top spot with 97 points through 71 games, and 38 regulation wins. In second are the Dallas Stars, with 97 points through 72 games and 33 regulation wins. The Winnipeg Jets are in third with 93 points in 71 games and 39 regulation wins. Off in the distance is our long shot in the field, the Nashville Predators, who sit at 88 points in 71 games, with 35 regulation wins.
Colorado’s schedule down the stretch is a tough one. After Tuesday night’s game against the lottery-bound Montreal Canadiens (9 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), seven of its remaining 10 contests are against teams currently in playoff position, and two of the other three are against the Minnesota Wild, who are on the outskirts of the wild-card race but are still playing hard. The Avs are projected for 111.2 points and have a 58.8% chance of taking the division, per Stathletes.
The Stars also get a draft lottery team for their opponent on Tuesday night, as they’ll skate against the San Jose Sharks (10:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). Dallas is projected to reach 110.4 standings points and has been given a 35.3% chance of winning the Central. Of their remaining nine games beyond Tuesday, just four are against current playoff teams.
Although the Jets are behind the other two clubs in standings points, their regulation wins total could come in handy if they can gain ground. After a rough swing out east, they are back home Tuesday to host the Edmonton Oilers (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). After that game, six of their final 10 games are against teams currently in a postseason spot, including one apiece against Dallas and Colorado on Apr. 11 and 13. Stathletes projects the Jets for 106.1 points and gives them a 5.8% chance of winning the division title.
And now, the hottest team in the NHL. The Predators haven’t lost a game in regulation since Feb. 15, a span of 17 straight contests with a point. That’s a trend that can surely aid a team in its quest for a strong postseason slot, and Nashville will be going for 18 straight games with at least one point on Tuesday night against the Vegas Golden Knights (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). The Preds have been beating all manner of teams during the streak, but their remaining schedule happens to be a bit lighter than those of the teams ahead of them; just three of their final 10 contests are against current playoff teams. Nevertheless, it would be quite an unlikely outcome for Nashville to win the Central title: Stathletes projects the Preds finishing with 101.9 points and a 0.1% chance of finishing first in the division.
As we traverse the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Clinching scenarios
Tuesday’s schedule
Monday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
A2 Boston Bruins vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC2 Washington Capitals
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers
Western Conference
C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Winnipeg Jets
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Clinching scenarios
1. The New York Rangers will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Philadelphia Flyers in any fashion. They also clinch if they get one point against the Flyers and the Detroit Red Wings lose to the Washington Capitals in any fashion or if the Red Wings lose to the Capitals in regulation (regardless of the Rangers’ result).
2. The Florida Panthers will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Boston Bruins in any fashion, and any of the following occurs:
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The Red Wings lose to the Capitals in any fashion
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The Flyers lose to the Rangers in regulation
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The Flyers lose to the Rangers in overtime or shootout AND the Capitals lose to the Red Wings in regulation
Florida can also clinch if it gets one point against Boston and Detroit loses to Washington in regulation.
3. The Carolina Hurricanes will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins in any fashion, and any of the following occurs:
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The Red Wings lose to the Capitals in any fashion
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The Flyers lose to the Rangers in regulation
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The Flyers lose to the Rangers in overtime or shootout AND the Capitals lose to the Red Wings in regulation
Carolina can also clinch if it gets one point against Pittsburgh and Detroit loses to Washington in regulation.
4. The Bruins will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Panthers in any fashion AND the Red Wings lose to the Capitals in regulation.
Tuesday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).
Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m.
Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals, 7 p.m.
New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators, 8 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets, 8 p.m.
Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks 8:30 p.m.
Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche, 9 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Arizona Coyotes, 10 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken, 10 p.m.
Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m.
Monday’s scoreboard
Vegas Golden Knights 2, St. Louis Blues 1 (OT)
Los Angeles Kings 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 12
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. BOS (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 98.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 25.0%
Tragic number: 21
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. OTT (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 1.9%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 75
Next game: @ BUF (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 9
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 75
Next game: @ COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 9
Metropolitan Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ NYR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 85.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 66.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 87
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 13.3%
Tragic number: 18
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 84
Next game: @ TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 8.7%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.5%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 67
Next game: @ ARI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: E
Central Division
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 102
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 91
Next game: vs. CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 4.3%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 1.7%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 1
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 52
Next game: vs. CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 101
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 98
Next game: @ NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 95.0%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 10
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 81
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 8
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 40
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 47
Next game: vs. DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
p — clinched Presidents’ Trophy
y — clinched division
x — clinched playoff berth
e — eliminated from playoff contention
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.
Points: 40
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 16
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 30
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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