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Feeling acrophobic?

After the S&P 500s 26% return last year and this years strong start, many investors are worried understandably that this bull run is getting ahead of itself. 

They shouldnt. The strange-but-true fact is that, statistically speaking, average returns — which have amounted to about 10% a year over nearly a century of trading — arent normal in the stock market for any given year. A second, surprisingly pleasant fact is that so-called “extreme” returns are far closer to what we’d call normal — and they’re mostly on the positive side.  

Most folks think of volatility as negativity. We all recognize the NYSEs famously frazzled-looking floor trader, Peter Tuchman, peering up at the Big Board in various states of alarm, with the effect enhanced by his Einstein-style shock of white hair. 

Crucially, that image however familiar, convincing and relatable it may be   is misleading. Volatility is just movement, whether it’s up or down.

Crunching the numbers, one finds that stocks rise far more often than they fall. Forget the day-to-day or month-to month noise. Since accurate data start in 1925, the S&P 500 gained in fully 73% of rolling 12-month periods nearly three-quarters of them! Stretched to rolling five-year periods that becomes 88%. Across 10-year periods, its a staggering 94.5%. 

Meanwhile, throughout that entire, 98-year stretch, there has never been a rolling 20-year period of negative returns. Never.

To work this into your bones a little further, consider that since 1925, US stocks gained more than 20% in 37 of 98 calendar years the most frequent result! Next most frequent? Zero to 20% gains, totaling 35 times. Down between 0% and -20% followed, at 20 years. 

Down big was the real rarity, occurring just six times. So, markets posted huge gains six times as often as horrendous declines.

More simply: Stocks beat their 10% long-term average in 58 calendar years. They fell to any degree less than half as often, 26 times. So historically, you are more than twice as likely to celebrate above-average, even huge, years than encounter down years.

Looking back at the past five years, many folks again, understandably fixate on 2022s negativity, calling that volatile. OK! But what of all the great volatility during 2019s 31.5% boom? Or 2021s 28.7%? And, of course, 2023. All four years are extremes. 

Even 2020, starting dreadfully amid COVIDs lockdown-driven hyper-fast bear market, finished up 18.4%. I hesitate labeling anything in 2020 normal. But ironically, its 18% return is the closest to average among those years.

The upshot? Big returns simply arent the rarity that too far, too fast bears claim. In bull markets, they are more normal than not. Why? The roughly 10% long-term annual average includes bear markets. Strip out the bears and youll find that during the 14 S&P 500 bull markets before this one, stocks annualized 23%.

Mind you, Im not necessarily suggesting 2024 returns exceeding 20%. But it wouldnt shock me  and it shouldnt shock you. The fact is, gains of 20% and more arent abnormal at all. 

As for acrophobia, I cant disagree with a fear of hot-air balloons, mountain climbing, or a job washing windows at the Empire State Building but try to get over it when it comes to investing.

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.

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Stanton: Could rejoin Yankees when first eligible

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Stanton: Could rejoin Yankees when first eligible

NEW YORK — One day after he took live batting practice, a significant step in his return from the injured list, New York Yankees designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton confirmed Wednesday he could return to the team’s lineup by the end of the month.

Stanton participated in batting practice on the field at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, the first time he has seen live pitching this year after he was shut down with elbow tendinitis in both arms at the beginning of spring training. He saw 10 pitches, hitting a ground ball to shortstop and working a full-count walk in his two plate appearances against right-hander Jake Cousins.

The Yankees moved Stanton from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list last week, pushing his earliest possible return date to May 27. It was a procedural move for New York. The Yankees needed a 40-man roster spot to claim Bryan De La Cruz off waivers, and Stanton was not in line to return before the end of the month.

Stanton, 35, said he expects to go on a rehab assignment. He said he did not have a target date for starting one and didn’t know how long it would last. Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Stanton likely won’t need a long rehab assignment because he doesn’t play a position on defense.

“It depends on what kind of arms I get available [for live batting practice sessions],” Stanton said, “and how I feel in those at-bats.”

Stanton, who also took batting practice on the field Wednesday, has taken rounds of injections to address the pain in his elbows and reiterated that he will have to play through pain whenever he returns.

“If I’m out there, I’m good enough to play,” Stanton said, “and there’s no levels of anything else.”

Stanton’s elbow troubles go back to last season; he played through the World Series with the pain, slugging seven home runs in 14 postseason games. But he said he stopped swinging a bat entirely in January because of severe pain in the elbows and didn’t start taking swings again until March. At one point, Stanton said, season-ending surgery was possible, but that was tabled.

“I know when G’s in there, he’s ready to go,” Boone said. “He’s not going to be in there if he doesn’t feel like he can be really productive, so I know when that time comes, when he’s ready to do that, we should be in a good spot.

“And hopefully we’ve done some things, the latter part of the winter and into the spring, that will set him up to be able to physically do it and withstand it. But also understanding he’ll probably deal with some things.”

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Jays’ Scherzer: Thumb ‘felt good’ vs. live hitters

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Jays' Scherzer: Thumb 'felt good' vs. live hitters

ANAHEIM, Calif. — Max Scherzer took what the Toronto Blue Jays hope is a significant step Wednesday in his return from a right thumb injury when he threw to hitters for the first time since going on the injured list in March.

“I thought his stuff was really good,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said before Wednesday night’s game against the Los Angeles Angels. “Afterward, he said he felt good, so that’s a really good step in the right direction.”

Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young Award winner who signed a one-year, $15.5 million deal with Toronto in February, threw 20 pitches. Barring a setback, Schneider said he would repeat the workout but with more pitches over the weekend.

“It felt good,” Scherzer, 40, said. “I’ve gotten all the inflammation out, so I can finally grip the ball again and not blow out my shoulder. But I’m not celebrating this until I’m back starting in a major league game.”

Scherzer has received two cortisone injections to relieve inflammation in the thumb this season. He was transferred to the 60-day injured list earlier this week and is not eligible to be activated until May 29.

He went 2-4 with a 3.95 ERA in nine starts for Texas last season, starting the year on the injured list while recovering from lower back surgery. He said Tuesday that his problematic right thumb, which also affected his 2022 and 2023 seasons, was just as big of an issue in 2024.

“This is what knocked me out in 2023, and [I had it] all of last year,” Scherzer said. “It wasn’t so much the back injury, it was this thumb injury giving me all the fits in the world. I thought I addressed it. I thought I had done all the grip-strength work, but I came into spring training, and it popped back out.”

Scherzer left his debut start with the Blue Jays against Baltimore on March 29 after three innings because of soreness in his right lat muscle. He said after the game that his thumb issue was to blame for that soreness.

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Technology

Apple says Epic Games contempt ruling could cost ‘substantial sums’

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Apple says Epic Games contempt ruling could cost 'substantial sums'

An Apple store in Walnut Creek, California, U.S., on April 30, 2025.

Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Apple is asking a court to pause a recent decision in its case against Epic Games and allow the iPhone maker to once again charge a commission on in-app transactions that link out for payment.

Last month, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in Oakland found that Apple had violated her original court order from the Epic trial, originally decided in 2021, that forced Apple to make limited changes to its linking out policy under California law.

Judge Rogers’ new ruling is more expansive, ordering Apple to immediately stop imposing its commissions on purchases made for iPhone apps through web links inside its apps, among other changes.

Apple is now looking to get a stay on that order, as well as another one from the case that prevents it from restricting app developers from choosing the language or placement of those links, until the entire decision can be appealed. Apple says that required changes in their current form will cost the company “substantial sums.”

“This is the latest chapter in Epic’s largely unsuccessful effort to use competition law to change how Apple runs the App Store,” Apple said in the emergency motion for a stay. The motion cites a previous order in the case that found that new linking policies would cost Apple “hundreds of millions to billions” of dollars annually.

If Apple succeeds, it will allow the company to roll back changes that have already started to shift the economics of app development. Developers including Amazon and Spotify have been able to update their apps to avoid Apple’s commissions and direct customers to their own website for payment.

Prior to the ruling, Amazon’s Kindle app told users they could not purchase a book in the iPhone app. After a recent update, the app now shows an orange “Get Book” button that links to Amazon’s website.

Epic also plans to introduce new software to allow app and game developers to easily link to their websites to take payments.  

“This forces Apple to compete,” Epic Games CEO Tim Sweeney said shortly after last month’s decision. “This is what we wanted all along.”

Apple said in the filing that “non-party developers are already seizing upon the Order to reduce consumer choice (and damage Apple’s business) by, among other things, impeding the use of” in-app purchases.

Rogers made a criminal referral in the case, saying that Apple misled the court and that a company vice president “outright lied” about when and why Apple decided to charge 27% for external payments. The real decision, the judge said, took place in meetings involving Apple CEO Tim Cook.

Wednesday’s filing from Apple doesn’t address Rogers’ accusations that the company misled the judge, but it does argue that the ruling was punitive. Apple’s lawyers also claimed that civil contempt sanctions can only coerce compliance with an existing order, not punish non-compliance.

Apple said earlier this week in a court filing it would appeal the contempt ruling.

“We’ve complied with the court’s order and we’re going to appeal,” Cook told investors on the company’s quarterly earnings call last week.

WATCH: Apple says it strongly disagrees with Epic Games decision

Apple on Epic Games decision: We strongly disagree and will appeal

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