An expert has told Sky News the attack on a Moscow concert hall is consistent with Islamic State.
Sky News has analysed IS footage of the attack and an image released by the militant group and spoken to experts about what the materials reveal.
Aaron Zelin, an expert on jihadist groups and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said “the attack itself, the type of people involved, the style of the attack and the media campaign” is all “Islamic State modus operandi”.
IS has said it carried out the shooting massacre, and US officials have said their intelligence indicates that an Afghan affiliate, Islamic State Khorasan, or IS-K, was responsible. However, Vladimir Putin has not publicly mentioned IS in connection with the assailants.
The video
A day after the attack, IS released a video of the assailants inside Crocus Hall via the militant group’s Amaq news agency which shows a number of gunmen storming the building and attacking people.
Image: Screenshot of IS video from the attack. Pic: Islamic State affiliated media
The attackers are seen holding guns and also knives. More than 130 people were killed and over 180 others were injured on Friday night.
Mr Zelin said the type of weapons used in the attack are consistent with IS methods. “We’ve seen in past attacks they shoot people and stab people… They have as many weapons on them as possible so they can inflict as much damage on them as possible.
“So, if they end up using all their bullets and cartridges or AK-47s they will still have a knife to stab.”
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While IS has also used other methods in previous attacks, including suicide attacks, another expert said that it would likely be easier to “procure firearms in Russia”.
Image: Screenshot of IS video from the attack. Pic: Islamic State affiliated media
Dr Antonio Giustozzi, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said the way IS carries out attacks “depends on the kind of weapons they can obtain”.
“So explosives, especially plastic explosives that you can use for suicide belts is not so easy to procure…. It’s probably easier to procure firearms in Russia.” He added the “exact choice of weapons can be dictated by what’s available on the black market”.
Clothing worn by suspects match IS image
IS also released an earlier image which they say shows some of the people behind the Moscow attack. It shows four people with blurred faces in front of an IS flag.
Image: Pic: Islamic State affiliated media
Mr Zelin said images “pledging allegiance to the leader of IS” are part of the group’s media campaign.
Sky News has analysed and compared the IS image to subsequent interrogation videos and images by Russian authorities and other photos later taken of the four suspects in court. We used a facial recognition tool and analysed the clothing worn by the suspects.
Clothing worn by three of the people seen in the IS image matches those seen in other videos and images appearing in the aftermath of the attack.
Image: Pic: Islamic State affiliated media
We brightened the IS image above and matched details on the T-shirts worn by three of the people – to other images and videos on Telegram showing them being interrogated by Russian authorities.
The detailing of a logo on a T-shirt worn by one of the suspects in the image below appears blurred in the IS image (left), visible from a screenshot of the IS video (centre) and again on the T-shirt in an aftermath video (right).
Image: ISIS released image (left), screenshot of ISIS video (centre) and screenshot of video circulating on Telegram (right). Pic: Islamic state affiliated media
The suspects have been named as Dalerdzhon Mirzoyev, Saidakrami Murodali Rachabalizoda, Muhammadsobir Fayzov and Shamsidin Fariduni.
We cross referenced the aftermath imagery and videos to photos of the four suspects pictured in court using an AI facial recognition tool which confirmed they matched.
Mr Zelin said that while not all IS attacks are the same, there is a consistency to the group’s media campaign.
He explained they often include a line to first claim responsibility, followed by a longer statement, then “photographic evidence of the individuals pledging allegiance to the leader of IS”, followed by some form of video of the attack or to do with the attack.
“It’s definitely a template they use, part of it is to keep them in the news for a longer time,” he added.
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Terrror suspects appear with face injuries
Claiming responsibility for attack
Experts are convinced no other group is responsible.
Dr Giustozzi said: “This is about, intimidating, spreading terror and primarily the recruitment and funding for the militant group.”
Mr Zelin said in the aftermath of attack, he had seen in their “different types of propaganda in a number of different languages that they are trying to recruit people”.
Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has not publicly mentioned Islamic State in connection with the assailants, who he said had been trying to flee to Ukraine with help from “the Ukrainian side”.
Ukraine has denied any role and Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Putin of seeking to divert blame.
Washington said it had warned Russia this month of an imminent attack. A source familiar with this intelligence said it was based on interceptions of “chatter” among IS-K militants.
An Irish politician who was detained in Egypt trying to cross into Gaza says the police were violent towards the group after seizing his phone.
People Before Profit-Solidarity TD (MP) Paul Murphy was part of a large demonstration attempting to march to the Rafah crossing in a bid to get aid into the region.
The opposition politician said his phone and passport were confiscated on Friday before he was put on a bus to Cairo airport for deportation.
Footage of the seconds before his phone was seized shows authorities forcibly dragging protesters away from the sit-down demonstration.
Ireland’s deputy premier said several Irish citizens who were detained have now been released. Mr Murphy confirmed he was among the released protesters, posting a photo on his Facebook page saying he was back in Cairo and “meeting shortly to decide next steps”.
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In a message from Mr Murphy after he was detained, posted online by his social media team, he said: “I’m ok, but they still have my phone.
“Egyptian police say we’re going to airport but this isn’t the road we came on because there are 1000s of marchers on the streets. They’re taking us south past a lake, then west towards Cairo.
“Violence got worse after they seized my phone.
“One American woman in my group was badly kicked & beaten, and had her hijab torn off.”
Sky News has contacted Egypt’s police regarding Mr Murphy’s claims of violence towards the group.
Mr Murphy previously said other Irish citizen were among those who had been stopped from entering Gaza.
“The world has watched a horrific genocide for the past 20 months. Since March, a total attempt of starvation,” he added.
“And that this is a peaceful march to demand that it be ended and demand that western governments stop their complicity.”
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Mr Murphy’s partner, Councillor Jess Spear, had previously appealed to Ireland’s Foreign Affairs Minister and deputy premier Simon Harris to make a public statement on Mr Murphy’s detention.
She expressed “relief” that the group had been released from detention.
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The deadly road to Gaza aid point
She said: “However, they still want to reach Rafah to try and get humanitarian aid into Gaza. That has been the sole purpose of being in Egypt.
“Paul has appealed to Tanaiste Simon Harris to put pressure on the Egyptian authorities to let the marchers reach Rafah. The situation of the people of Gaza worsens by the day as they suffer starvation imposed by Israel.”
Because, hours after his country launched its first, surprise attack, the message from Benjamin Netanyahu couldn’t be clearer – Iranians, he said, should overthrow their “evil and oppressive regime”. He said Israel’s attack would “pave the way for you to achieve your freedom”.
On the one hand, he would say that, wouldn’t he? The Iranian government does not recognise the legitimacy of the Israeli state and has called for its destruction, while funding proxy groups that have attacked Israel– including Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen.
But perhaps this time there is more than just wishful thinking.
Although it’s very hard to gauge the level of opposition in Iran, it seems likely the majority of the population of 90 million are at least disenchanted with the regime.
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Netanyahu calls on Iranians to help “thwart” Tehran regime
Living standards have fallen and supplies are running short. While tens of billions of dollars have been spent on a nuclear programme, electricity is being rationed and cooking gas is running low.
Priority is being given to those who are close to the regime, notably the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of the Iranian army that is fiercely loyal to the ruling regime.
The IRGC are crucial in propping up Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s 86-year-old supreme leader. Not only do they offer military power, but also domestic surveillance, intimidation and secret policing in order to stifle dissent.
So for any opposition to emerge, let alone flourish, the IRGC would need to be degraded – and that is precisely what Israel has done, targeting its senior leaders as well as bases.
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The regular army, so far, has been left alone. Israel’s gamble is that a majority of the rest of the military harbour the same dislike of the IRGC as the wider population.
It was no coincidence that Netanyahu quoted the expression “woman, life, freedom”, which was a rallying call during the 2022 protests in Iran – eventually suppressed by the IRGC.
It is very hard to believe that a coherent, public opposition movement will burst into life any time soon. Iranians are well aware their regime will respond with brutality against any attempted uprising.
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2:31
Iranian ballistic missile strikes Israel
Instead, dissidents seem to be biding their time and waiting to see if Israel continues its assaults, and whether they can sense genuine signs that the regime is starting to struggle to maintain control. If the cracks emerge, then regime change – or at least an attempt – is possible.
Possible, but not certain. “They will do anything to stay in power, and when other uprisings have happened, they’ve been successfully suppressed,” one Middle East diplomat tells me.
“And there is no unifying leader ready to step in. Even if there is regime change, it could be a military takeover rather than a popular uprising.”
And that leaves one final question – if Khamenei did feel his grip on power was failing, might he still have the time, desire and power to resort to final, desperate military actions? The truth is, we don’t know.
At the moment, the Middle East is a region full of unanswerable, high-risk questions.
A father returning home after scattering his wife’s ashes was among the victims of the Air India crash, leaving his two young children suddenly orphaned.
Flight 171 was carrying 242 people when it struck a medical college hostel less than a minute after taking off from Ahmedabad airport, in western India.
Twenty-nine people on the ground were killed, taking the total number of victims to 270. A hospital official confirmed 270 bodies have been recovered from the crash site, but DNA testing is being conducted to identify the bodies.
Among the victims, 37-year-old Arjun Patoliya had been visiting India to fulfil his wife Bharti’s “final wish” to be laid to rest in her hometown of Gujarat.
Bharti had died just over two weeks ago, following a “courageous battle with cancer”.
A GoFundMe page, set up to raise funds for their two children, says: “Arjun left to bid farewell to his wife, never returned to the children they both raised.
“Now, these two beautiful young girls have been left without parents – their world turned upside down in just over two weeks.”
A fundraiser, which has topped more than a quarter of a million pounds, confirms all money raised will go directly into a legal trust, “to ensure every penny is dedicated to the girls’ needs”.
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India’s aviation minister has said a government panel reviewing the crash will complete its assessment in three months.
Ram Mohan Naidu said the government has also ordered “extended surveillance” of Boeing 787 planes. Air India operates 33 Boeing 787s, while rival airline IndiGo has one, according to data from Flightradar24.
Mr Naidu said the plane started descending after reaching 650 feet.
Every theory as to what happened will be looked into, he said. But in the meantime, he has instructed the airline to assist the families of passengers to ensure there is no delay in handing over the bodies of those who died.
Black box has been found
India’s aviation ministry says workers have recovered the digital flight data recorder – one of two black boxes on the plane, from the rooftop of the building where it crashed.
This box has data on engine and control settings, so will be able to show if there was a loss of engine power or lift after takeoff.
The investigation will initially focus on the engine, flaps and landing gear, a source told Reuters on Friday.
A possible bird-hit is not among the key areas of focus, the source said, adding that teams of anti-terror experts were part of the investigation process.
There is no information yet on the cockpit voice recorder, the other black box, which will be a crucial part of understanding what caused the plane to crash.