Rishi Sunak looks to have seen off his backbenchers – at least for now.
The nascent rebellions have gone quiet in the past few weeks and the Commons is currently in its Easter recess, with MPs returning to Westminster on 15 April.
Time away from parliament normally strengthens – or at least prevents the further collapse – of a prime minister, as MPs disperse back to their constituencies and away from the plot-heavy fug of Westminster.
But a potential flashpoint is looming – May’s local elections.
A particularly bad performance by the Tories could lead to fresh pressure on the PM’s leadership and prove to be the catalyst for a concrete move to oust Mr Sunak.
Sky News explains how Tory MPs could get rid of the PM and – if they are successful – who would likely be in the running to replace him.
More on Conservatives
Related Topics:
How to depose a prime minister
The process of removing a Tory leader is governed by the 1922 Committee – also known as the ’22 – a group of backbench Tory MPs.
Advertisement
If a Conservative MP wants a new leader, they write to the head of the ’22 saying they have no confidence in the incumbent.
The chair of the committee is Sir Graham Brady.
Under party rules, 15% of Tory MPs need to write to Sir Graham in order to trigger a vote. Currently, there are 348 MPs, meaning the 15% threshold sits at 53.
There is often lots of speculation about how many letters have been submitted, but the only person who truly knows is Sir Graham himself.
Image: Sir Graham Brady has overseen numerous Tory leadership contests since becoming chair of the 1922 committee in 2010. Pic: PA
When the threshold is met, Sir Graham will make an announcement to the media.
There would then be a vote of all Tory MPs on whether to unseat Mr Sunak. If a majority say they have no confidence in him (50% +1) a leadership contest is triggered.
Mr Sunak would be barred from standing in the subsequent contest.
However, if the leader wins a vote of no confidence, they are then immune from a further such challenge for a year.
This happened with Theresa May in 2018, although she opted to resign a few months later amid continuing struggles to get a Brexit deal passed by MPs.
Image: Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence, but it proved to be a brief respite. Pic: PA
Her successor Boris Johnson also survived a confidence vote of Tory MPs in June 2022, but emerged from the ordeal weakened as a significant number of Conservatives (148, 41%) voted against him.
He announced his resignation a little more than a month later.
Are there any other circumstances in which the PM could go?
Another way Mr Sunak could be ousted is if the so-called “men in grey suits” tell him to step aside and he heeds their advice.
This is when senior Conservative MPs – like Sir Graham – tell the party leader they do not have the support of the party, and should step aside to save the ignominy of the above votes.
Of course, Mr Sunak could decide himself that the game is up and opt to jump before he is potentially pushed, but this is unlikely.
How would the contest pan out?
The exact rules for the contest would be set out by the ’22 after it is triggered.
Nominations for candidates would likely open quickly, with prospective leaders needing the support of a certain number of colleagues to stand.
Once nominations have closed, there would then be rounds of voting among Tory MPs for their preferred new leader. The worst-performing candidate in each ballot would be eliminated, until just two remain.
This pair would then compete for the votes of Conservative Party members, slugging it out to become party leader and prime minister.
This is what happened in the summer of 2022, when Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss were left as the last two candidates in the race to succeed Mr Johnson.
They then spent the summer campaigning for votes, with Ms Truss emerging victorious.
However, there have been examples in recent years of truncated contests.
The most recent of which was the second leadership contest of 2022, which Mr Sunak won unopposed after Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt pulled out.
In 2016, Tory members also didn’t get a chance to have their say.
Theresa May won both ballots of MPs, but she then became party leader unopposed after rival Andrea Leadsom pulled out in the wake of a controversial newspaper interview she later apologised for.
Will there be an election if there’s a new leader and PM?
In short, no.
Under our parliamentary system, the prime minister is leader of the largest party in the Commons.
If the Tories decide to get rid of Sunak and replace him, there is no legal obligation upon the party or the new leader to seek a fresh mandate from the electorate straight away.
The new PM could decide to call an election soon after taking office anyway, or they could wait it out until January 2025.
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Labour’s Gordon Brown didn’t call an election when he succeeded Sir Tony Blair as PM in 2007, although he did flirt with the idea of a snap poll.
The aforementioned Theresa May did go to the country early, but this was almost a year after she took office. Boris Johnson did call an election within a few months of entering Number 10, winning a big Tory majority in December 2019.
Neither Ms Truss or Mr Sunak opted to call an election on becoming PM, although it should be noted the former didn’t get much of a chance as she was in office for less than six weeks.
Who is likely to be in the running to succeed Sunak if he goes?
Given there is not long before there absolutely has to be an election – January 2025 at the very latest – and the polls suggest the Tories are on course for defeat, you might expect the field of likely contenders to succeed Mr Sunak to be quite narrow.
But a number of names have been suggested as potential replacements if he goes.
The defence secretary has emerged as someone who could look to run for the top job, having called for defence spending to rise to 3% of GDP – something that could win the support of Tory backbenchers.
Grant Shapps, who has also served as transport secretary, previously ran to be Tory leader in 2022.
The home secretary, who has also served as foreign secretary, is being talked about in moderate Tory circles as someone who could unify the party.
A key part of James Cleverly’s brief as home secretary is the plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda – something he is said to have reservations about in private, despite his denials.
He caused controversy last year – and was forced to apologise – after making a joke about date rape which he admitted may have undermined the government’s work to tackle drink spiking.
Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, is seen as the darling of the right and has impressed some in the party with her no-nonsense approach.
One of her strongest advocates is Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary who has also run for leader in the past.
Ms Badenoch ran in the last Tory leadership of 2022 following Mr Johnson’s resignation, in which she was eliminated in the fourth ballot.
Penny Mordaunt has been at the heart of the rumours of a plot to replace Mr Sunak, although the Commons leader has insisted she is “getting on” with her job.
She has been mooted as a “compromise” candidate for those on the rightF because of her Brexit credentials and her performances in the Commons.
She is viewed as one of the more centrist figures in the party, but current polling suggests she could lose her seat at the next election.
Former home secretary Priti Patel, who now sits on the backbenches, was a key torchbearer for the right before she was eclipsed by Suella Braverman following the demise of Mr Johnson.
Ms Patel is seen as one the more traditional right-wing MPs in the party, compared with her successor Ms Braverman, who holds appeal with some of the Tory MPs elected in 2019. Her seat of Witham in Essex is also one of the safest in the country.
Robert Jenrick has held a number of ministerial roles, including as communities secretary, a position he lost in one of Boris Johnson’s reshuffles.
He was originally seen as a Sunak loyalist and was appointed immigration minister, partly to keep Ms Braverman in check.
However, he later hit the headlines when he resigned over Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill, saying he could not continue in government when he had such“strong disagreements with the direction of the government’s policy on immigration”.
Suella Braverman has cultivated a reputation on the right as someone who is not afraid to voice controversial opinions on immigration and law and order.
She was brought in by Mr Sunak to cater to the right of the party, where she commanded support.
However, her sacking as home secretary–over comments that homelessness was a “lifestyle choice” – may have affected her standing among Tory MPs.
Tom Tugendhat is regarded highly in the One Nation group of moderate Tory MPs.
He has previously run for Tory leader, but was knocked out of the race early and later threw his support behind Liz Truss.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood plans to impose Trump-style visa bans on three African countries if they fail to take back illegal migrants as part of “sweeping reforms” of the UK’s immigration system.
Angola, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo will face visa sanctions, blocking their tourists, VIPs and business people from travelling to Britain if they do not improve co-operation on removals.
Ms Mahmood said: “In Britain, we play by the rules. When I said there would be penalties for countries that do not take back criminals and illegal immigrants, I meant it.
“My message to foreign governments today is clear: accept the return of your citizens or lose the privilege of entering our country.”
The move was reportedly inspired by President Trump’s homeland security secretary, Kristi Noem, who has overseen the mass deportation policy in the US, according to The Times.
Ms Mahmood will address the House of Commons today to lay out “the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times”, effectively since the Second World War.
Modelled on the Danish system, the aim is to make the UK less attractive for illegal immigrants and make it easier to deport them.
More on Migrant Crisis
Related Topics:
Under the plans, the home secretary will bring forward a bill to change how article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), the right to family life, is applied in migration court cases.
The Home Office has said it’s seen a rise in the use of rights-based appeals in recent years as a means of avoiding deportation.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:29
‘Illegal migration is creating division across UK’ – Shabana Mahmood
The changes would see only those with immediate family in the UK, such as a parent or child, being able to use article 8 in future.
The home secretary, who has been in the job for 73 days, also plans to change the law so that multiple attempts to appeal against refusals for asylum will no longer be allowed.
Furthermore, refugees would face a 20-year wait before they can apply for permanent settlement.
The Home Office said the “golden ticket” deal has seen asylum claims surge in the UK, drawing people across Europe, through safe countries, on to dangerous small boats.
Under the proposals, refugee status would become temporary and subject to regular review, with refugees removed once their home countries are deemed safe.
Housing and weekly allowances would also no longer be guaranteed.
Mahmood is new hard woman of British politics – and potential successor to Starmer
We’re told that Shabana Mahmood, the still new home secretary, is “a woman in a hurry”.
She’s been in the job for 73 days – and is now announcing “the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times” – effectively since the Second World War.
Her language is not just tough – it’s radical. Not what you’d have expected to hear from a Labour home secretary even just a few months ago.
“Illegal migration”, she believes, “is tearing our country apart. The crisis at our borders is out of control”.
Her team argues that those never-ending images of people crossing the Channel in small boats have led to a complete loss of faith in the government’s ability to take any action at all – let alone deliver on its promises.
The political reality is that successive failures of Tory and Labour ministers have fuelled the inexorable rise of Reform.
A new independent body – similar to one in Denmark – is planned to fast-track the removal of dangerous criminals, and last-minute appeals would be expedited.
Ms Mahmood has denied that her plans are “racist”, instead describing them as a “moral mission”.
She said illegal immigration was causing “huge divides” in the UK, adding: “I do believe we need to act if we are to retain public consent for having an asylum system at all.”
What measures is the home secretary set to announce?
Refugee status will become temporary and subject to regular review – with people facing removal as soon as their home countries are deemed safe
Asylum seekers will face a 20-year wait before they can apply for permanent settlement
New safe and legal routes to be introduced for those genuinely fleeing war and persecution
Changes to the legal framework that will require judges to prioritise public safety over migrants’ rights to a family life – amid fears that Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights has been used to frustrate removals
Using facial age estimation technology, a form of AI ,to rapidly assess a person’s age in a bid to deter people who pretend to be children in an attempt to claim asylum
Capped work and study routes for refugees will also be created
Speaking on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Ms Mahmood said she had observed how illegal migration had been “creating division across our country”.
She added: “I can see that it is polarising communities across the country. I can see that it is dividing people and making them estranged from one another. I don’t want to stand back and watch that happen in my country.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:45
Govt ‘lacks empathy and understanding’ for refugees
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “Britain has always been a fair, tolerant and compassionate country – and this government will always defend those values.
“But in a more volatile world, people need to know our borders are secure and rules are enforced. These reforms will block endless appeals, stop last-minute claims and scale up removals of those with no right to be here.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:29
Anti-asylum seeker protest in East Sussex
Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch welcomed Ms Mahmood “finally talking seriously about tackling illegal immigration”, but called the plans “weak”.
She said: “If the home secretary actually wants to cut illegal immigration, she should take up my offer to sit down with her and work on a plan that will actually stop the boats, rather than a few weak changes that will meet the approval of Labour MPs.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
8:10
‘Mahmood’s own MPs calling her racist’ – Zia Yusuf
Speaking earlier on Sunday, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “The home secretary sounds like a Reform supporter.”
“Sadly with the Human Rights Act and ECHR membership, the changes won’t survive the courts or probably even her own backbenchers,” he added.
The Refugee Council warned that the government would accrue a cost of £872m over 10 years as a result of the need to review asylum seekers’ status to remain in the UK.
Enver Solomon, the charity’s chief executive, insisted the changes “will not deter people from making dangerous crossings, but they will unfairly prevent men, women and children from integrating into British life”.
Latest Home Office figures show 39,075 people have arrived in the UK after crossing the English Channel in small boats so far this year.
The arrivals have already passed the number for the whole of 2024 (36,816) and 2023 (29,437), but the number is below the total for 2022 (45,774).
We’re told that Shabana Mahmood, the still new home secretary, is “a woman in a hurry”.
She’s been in the job for 73 days – and is now announcing “the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times” – effectively since the Second World War.
Her language is not just tough – it’s radical. Not what you’d have expected to hear from a Labour home secretary even just a few months ago.
“Illegal migration”, she believes, “is tearing our country apart. The crisis at our borders is out of control”.
Her team argues that those never-ending images of people crossing the Channel in small boats have led to a complete loss of faith in the government’s ability to take any action at all – let alone deliver on its promises.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:29
‘Illegal migration is creating division across our country’.
The political reality is that successive failures of Tory and Labour ministers have fuelled the inexorable rise of Reform.
More on Migrant Crisis
Related Topics:
But speaking to Sir Trevor Phillips on Sky News, Ms Mahmood firmly hit back at suggestions today’s announcements are pandering to a racist narrative from the far right.
“It’s not right-wing talking points or fake news or misinformation that is suggesting that we’ve got a problem,” she said.
“I know, because I have now seen this system inside out. It is a broken system. We have a genuine problem to fix. People are angry about something that is real.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:09
Trevor’s takeaway
“It is my job, therefore, to think of a proper solution to this very real problem, to do so in line with my values as a Labour politician, but also as a British citizen, and to have solutions that work so that I can unite a divided country.”
There are many striking elements to this.
While she’s not been in the job for all that long, her government has been in power for 16 months. Her own press release highlights that over the past full calendar year asylum claims here have gone up by 18% – compared with a drop of 13% elsewhere in the EU.
The UK, she argues, has become a “golden ticket” for asylum seekers due to “far more generous terms” than other countries in Europe.
While she politely insists that her predecessor’s policies – the one in one out deal with France, closer partnership with law enforcement across Europe – are beginning to take effect, the message is clear. No one in office before Shabana has had the stomach to grasp the nettle.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
4:42
Inside Europe’s people smuggling industry
The Home Office is determined to present their boss as the new hard woman of British politics.
In a bleak warning to those in her party who will be deeply uncomfortable with this unflinching approach, we’re told she believes this is “the last chance for decent, moderate politics”.
“If these moderate forces fail, something darker will follow…. if you don’t like this, you won’t like what follows me.”
That’s a clear reference to the anti-asylum policies of Reform and the Conservatives, who are pledging to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and deport all illegal arrivals.
Both parties have responded by effectively claiming they don’t trust Labour to deliver on this, given they believe the government has lost control of our borders and overseen a surge in asylum claims.
That much Ms Mahmood herself has already acknowledged.
It’s unusual to hear a Conservative shadow minister like Chris Philp responding to a government announcement by claiming they will support the “sensible steps” the Home Office is making.
Unsurprisingly, he went on to belittle her ideas as “very small steps” combined with “gimmicks” – but the main thrust of his critique was that Labour lacks the authority to push these kinds of measures through parliament, given the likely opposition from their own left wingers.
It’s a fair point – but the lack of fundamental disagreement highlights the threat these plans pose to her opponents.
If the government looks like it might actually succeed in bringing down the numbers – and of course that’s a colossal if – Ms Mahmood will effectively have outflanked and neutralised much of the threat from both the Tories and Reform.
That’s why she’s so keen to mention her Danish inspiration – a centre-left government which managed to see off the threat from right-wing parties through its tough approach to migration, without having to leave the ECHR.
The Home Office is planning further announcements on new safe and legal routes.
But refugee charities have described the new measures as harsh, claiming they will scapegoat genuine refugees, fail to integrate them into society, and fail to function as a deterrent either.
There will surely be an almighty internal row among Labour MPs about the principle of ripping up the post-war settlement for refugees.
For a government floundering after the political chaos of the last few weeks and months, Ms Mahmood is a voice of certainty and confidence.
At a moment of such intense backroom debate over the party’s future direction, it’s hard to avoid seeing her performance this weekend as a starting pitch for the leadership.
Bitcoin briefly lost all of its gains this year after the crypto markets bled over the weekend, despite the US government reopening on Thursday, which was expected to provide much-needed relief to the markets.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, down 25% from its all-time high in October. It started the year at $93,507.
It has since rebounded to around $94,209, CoinGecko data shows.
Bitcoin’s price information, including the change in price since Jan. 1, 2025. Source: CoinGecko
This year was tipped to be a strong one for the crypto markets after US President Donald Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20 and formed the most pro-crypto administration to date, which has followed through on most of his promises.
However, Trump’s war on tariffs and the US government shutdown — the latter of which ended on Thursday after a record 43 days — have contributed to multiple double-digit Bitcoin price pullbacks throughout the year.
Bitcoin whales have also slowed price rallies
Another key catalyst seen behind Bitcoin’s price slump has been OG Bitcoiners and whales selling off portions of their holdings, compressing upside even in light of positive industry developments.
However, Glassnode analysts last week said the “OG Whales Dumping” Bitcoin narrative isn’t as strong as it is made out to be, explaining that it is “normal bull-market behaviour,” particularly during the late stages of bull runs.
“This steady rise reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts — a pattern typical of late-cycle profit-taking, not a sudden exodus of whales.”
Bitcoin isn’t alone — Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are down 7.95% and 28.3% respectively from the start of 2025, while most altcoins have been hit even harder.
Four-year cycle thesis still not in effect, analyst says
Industry analysts are also speculating whether the four-year cycle thesis remains in effect, despite the crypto markets having far more institutional and regulatory backing compared to earlier market cycles.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan is one of a few analysts who believe Bitcoin will boom in 2026 due to the “debasement trade” thesis playing out, while the broader markets will benefit from increased adoption in stablecoin, tokenization and decentralized finance.
“I think the underlying fundamentals are just so sound,” Hougan said last Wednesday.
“I just think those are too big to keep down. So I think 2026 will be a good year.”