Rishi Sunak looks to have seen off his backbenchers – at least for now.
The nascent rebellions have gone quiet in the past few weeks and the Commons is currently in its Easter recess, with MPs returning to Westminster on 15 April.
Time away from parliament normally strengthens – or at least prevents the further collapse – of a prime minister, as MPs disperse back to their constituencies and away from the plot-heavy fug of Westminster.
But a potential flashpoint is looming – May’s local elections.
A particularly bad performance by the Tories could lead to fresh pressure on the PM’s leadership and prove to be the catalyst for a concrete move to oust Mr Sunak.
Sky News explains how Tory MPs could get rid of the PM and – if they are successful – who would likely be in the running to replace him.
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How to depose a prime minister
The process of removing a Tory leader is governed by the 1922 Committee – also known as the ’22 – a group of backbench Tory MPs.
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If a Conservative MP wants a new leader, they write to the head of the ’22 saying they have no confidence in the incumbent.
The chair of the committee is Sir Graham Brady.
Under party rules, 15% of Tory MPs need to write to Sir Graham in order to trigger a vote. Currently, there are 348 MPs, meaning the 15% threshold sits at 53.
There is often lots of speculation about how many letters have been submitted, but the only person who truly knows is Sir Graham himself.
Image: Sir Graham Brady has overseen numerous Tory leadership contests since becoming chair of the 1922 committee in 2010. Pic: PA
When the threshold is met, Sir Graham will make an announcement to the media.
There would then be a vote of all Tory MPs on whether to unseat Mr Sunak. If a majority say they have no confidence in him (50% +1) a leadership contest is triggered.
Mr Sunak would be barred from standing in the subsequent contest.
However, if the leader wins a vote of no confidence, they are then immune from a further such challenge for a year.
This happened with Theresa May in 2018, although she opted to resign a few months later amid continuing struggles to get a Brexit deal passed by MPs.
Image: Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence, but it proved to be a brief respite. Pic: PA
Her successor Boris Johnson also survived a confidence vote of Tory MPs in June 2022, but emerged from the ordeal weakened as a significant number of Conservatives (148, 41%) voted against him.
He announced his resignation a little more than a month later.
Are there any other circumstances in which the PM could go?
Another way Mr Sunak could be ousted is if the so-called “men in grey suits” tell him to step aside and he heeds their advice.
This is when senior Conservative MPs – like Sir Graham – tell the party leader they do not have the support of the party, and should step aside to save the ignominy of the above votes.
Of course, Mr Sunak could decide himself that the game is up and opt to jump before he is potentially pushed, but this is unlikely.
How would the contest pan out?
The exact rules for the contest would be set out by the ’22 after it is triggered.
Nominations for candidates would likely open quickly, with prospective leaders needing the support of a certain number of colleagues to stand.
Once nominations have closed, there would then be rounds of voting among Tory MPs for their preferred new leader. The worst-performing candidate in each ballot would be eliminated, until just two remain.
This pair would then compete for the votes of Conservative Party members, slugging it out to become party leader and prime minister.
This is what happened in the summer of 2022, when Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss were left as the last two candidates in the race to succeed Mr Johnson.
They then spent the summer campaigning for votes, with Ms Truss emerging victorious.
However, there have been examples in recent years of truncated contests.
The most recent of which was the second leadership contest of 2022, which Mr Sunak won unopposed after Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt pulled out.
In 2016, Tory members also didn’t get a chance to have their say.
Theresa May won both ballots of MPs, but she then became party leader unopposed after rival Andrea Leadsom pulled out in the wake of a controversial newspaper interview she later apologised for.
Will there be an election if there’s a new leader and PM?
In short, no.
Under our parliamentary system, the prime minister is leader of the largest party in the Commons.
If the Tories decide to get rid of Sunak and replace him, there is no legal obligation upon the party or the new leader to seek a fresh mandate from the electorate straight away.
The new PM could decide to call an election soon after taking office anyway, or they could wait it out until January 2025.
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Labour’s Gordon Brown didn’t call an election when he succeeded Sir Tony Blair as PM in 2007, although he did flirt with the idea of a snap poll.
The aforementioned Theresa May did go to the country early, but this was almost a year after she took office. Boris Johnson did call an election within a few months of entering Number 10, winning a big Tory majority in December 2019.
Neither Ms Truss or Mr Sunak opted to call an election on becoming PM, although it should be noted the former didn’t get much of a chance as she was in office for less than six weeks.
Who is likely to be in the running to succeed Sunak if he goes?
Given there is not long before there absolutely has to be an election – January 2025 at the very latest – and the polls suggest the Tories are on course for defeat, you might expect the field of likely contenders to succeed Mr Sunak to be quite narrow.
But a number of names have been suggested as potential replacements if he goes.
The defence secretary has emerged as someone who could look to run for the top job, having called for defence spending to rise to 3% of GDP – something that could win the support of Tory backbenchers.
Grant Shapps, who has also served as transport secretary, previously ran to be Tory leader in 2022.
The home secretary, who has also served as foreign secretary, is being talked about in moderate Tory circles as someone who could unify the party.
A key part of James Cleverly’s brief as home secretary is the plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda – something he is said to have reservations about in private, despite his denials.
He caused controversy last year – and was forced to apologise – after making a joke about date rape which he admitted may have undermined the government’s work to tackle drink spiking.
Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, is seen as the darling of the right and has impressed some in the party with her no-nonsense approach.
One of her strongest advocates is Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary who has also run for leader in the past.
Ms Badenoch ran in the last Tory leadership of 2022 following Mr Johnson’s resignation, in which she was eliminated in the fourth ballot.
Penny Mordaunt has been at the heart of the rumours of a plot to replace Mr Sunak, although the Commons leader has insisted she is “getting on” with her job.
She has been mooted as a “compromise” candidate for those on the rightF because of her Brexit credentials and her performances in the Commons.
She is viewed as one of the more centrist figures in the party, but current polling suggests she could lose her seat at the next election.
Former home secretary Priti Patel, who now sits on the backbenches, was a key torchbearer for the right before she was eclipsed by Suella Braverman following the demise of Mr Johnson.
Ms Patel is seen as one the more traditional right-wing MPs in the party, compared with her successor Ms Braverman, who holds appeal with some of the Tory MPs elected in 2019. Her seat of Witham in Essex is also one of the safest in the country.
Robert Jenrick has held a number of ministerial roles, including as communities secretary, a position he lost in one of Boris Johnson’s reshuffles.
He was originally seen as a Sunak loyalist and was appointed immigration minister, partly to keep Ms Braverman in check.
However, he later hit the headlines when he resigned over Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill, saying he could not continue in government when he had such“strong disagreements with the direction of the government’s policy on immigration”.
Suella Braverman has cultivated a reputation on the right as someone who is not afraid to voice controversial opinions on immigration and law and order.
She was brought in by Mr Sunak to cater to the right of the party, where she commanded support.
However, her sacking as home secretary–over comments that homelessness was a “lifestyle choice” – may have affected her standing among Tory MPs.
Tom Tugendhat is regarded highly in the One Nation group of moderate Tory MPs.
He has previously run for Tory leader, but was knocked out of the race early and later threw his support behind Liz Truss.
Sir Ed Davey has branded Elon Musk a criminal and called for him to be prosecuted for “allowing online harm to children” on his social media platform X.
The Lib Dem leader told Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips the billionaire owner of X, formerly Twitter, is “inciting violence” and his social media platform is actively failing to protect children.
Sir Ed, speaking from the Lib Dem conference in Bournemouth, said Mr Musk could be prosecuted under the Online Safety Act, under which social media companies have a legal duty to protect children from harmful content and their directors are liable for criminal prosecution for breaching it.
Image: Elon Musk. Pic: Reuters
Asked if he is calling Mr Musk a criminal, Sir Ed did not miss a beat as he said: “Yes.
“Not just because of the awful things he’s done in inciting violence, and, for example, he says a civil war in our country is inevitable, that our democratically elected government should be overthrown.
“They were bad enough. But on his platform, they’re examples of adverse, pushing people on self-harm, on grooming, even selling videos showing paedophile acts, of child sex abuse acts and I think he should be held to account for them, him personally and his business.
“Ofcom now has the powers under the Online Safety Act.”
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He said if Mr Musk comes to the UK, he should be arrested.
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Sir Ed Davey enters conference with marching band
Mr Musk was accused of inciting violence during a march organised by Tommy Robinson in London last week.
He told the protest via video link: “This is a message to the reasonable centre, the people who ordinarily wouldn’t get involved in politics, who just want to live their lives. They don’t want that, they’re quiet, they just go about their business.
“My message is to them: if this continues, that violence is going to come to you, you will have no choice. You’re in a fundamental situation here.
“Whether you choose violence or not, violence is coming to you. You either fight back or you die, that’s the truth, I think.”
Image: Sir Ed Davey said Elon Musk should be arrested
Sir Ed said it is “shocking” that Mr Musk removed some of X’s child safety teams when he took over Twitter in 2022 and accused him of just being “interested in his bank account”.
“I’m interested in the safety of our children, and it is quite wrong that his business puts on these adverts,” said the Lib Dem leader.
“It’s disgusting and I hope everybody will agree with me and the Liberal Democrats that we should take really strong action against him.”
After Mr Musk acquired Twitter, many of its child safety staff were laid off or resigned, and the platform’s trust and safety council was disbanded.
Child protection experts have accused Mr Musk of leading a “race to the bottom on safety”.
Image: Elon Musk with Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Pic: AP
Ofcom, the UK’s independent media regulator, which has the power to prosecute directors of social media platforms under the Online Safety Act, has launched an investigation into X’s handling of child sexual abuse content.
This is not the first time Sir Ed has hit out at the world’s richest man, as he called for the US ambassador to be summoned in February “to ask why an incoming US official is suggesting the UK government should be overthrown”.
The prime minister had called on Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to take substantive steps to end the “appalling situation in Gaza“, agree to a ceasefire, commit to a long-term sustainable peace, allow the UN to restart the supply of aid, and not annex the West Bank.
The Israeli foreign ministry furiously rejected his statement, with Mr Netanyahu claiming that “Starmer rewards Hamas‘s monstrous terrorism and punishes its victims”.
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Could recognition of Palestine change the West Bank?
Ilay David, brother of Hamas hostage Evyatar David, who was seen emaciated in a video last month, said giving recognition was “like saying to Hamas: ‘It is OK, you can keep starving the hostages, you can keep using them as human shields.’
“This kind of recognition gives Hamas power to be stubborn in negotiations. That is the last thing we need right now.”
There has been no ceasefire, and the situation in Gaza has deteriorated, with a declaration of a famine in Gaza City and the expansion of Israeli military operations.
Israel has launched a major ground offensive to seize all of Gaza City and destroy Hamas in an operation which has prompted widespread condemnation, with UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper calling it “utterly reckless and appalling”.
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What changed in UK’s Gaza policy?
Earlier this month, a UN commission of inquiry concluded that Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. Israel said the claim was “distorted and false”.
The UK will join 147 of the 193 members of the UN who recognise Palestine ahead of the UN General Assembly in New York on Monday.
Other nations, including France, Australia and Canada, have said they plan to take the same step at the UN gathering as part of a broad international effort to put pressure on Israel.
And the Muslim Council of Britain welcomed the prime minister’s move, but urged that recognition must also come with “tangible action”.
During a joint news conference with the prime minister at Chequers on Thursday, Donald Trump said he disagreed with recognition, and US politicians have urged the UK and other allies to reverse their stance.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer is expected to formally announce the move on Sunday. Pic: PA
Sky News understands that Israel is considering options in response to the UK’s decision, but the strength of that reaction is still under consideration.
Family members of some of the 48 hostages still in captivity, after Hamas and other militant groups stormed into Israel on 7 October 2023, have written an open letter to Sir Keir, condemning the move.
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Israel ramps up attacks on Gaza City
“Hamas has already celebrated the UK’s decision as a victory and reneged on a ceasefire deal,” they said.
“We write to you with a simple plea – do not take this step until our loved ones are home and in our arms.”
Meanwhile shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel accused the prime minister of “capitulating” to his backbenchers to shore up his leadership.
“With the terrorist organisation Hamas still holding hostages in barbaric conditions and glorifying acts of terror, Starmer is sending a dangerous message, where violence and extremism are tolerated and rewarded,” she said.
The UK government is understood to be looking at further sanctions on Hamas, and has demanded the group release all hostages, agree to an immediate ceasefire, accept it will have no role in governing Gaza, and commit to disarmament.
The controversial assisted dying bill is still very much alive, having received a second reading in the House of Lords without a vote.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Day two of debate on the bill in the Lords was just as passionate and emotional as the first, a week earlier.
And now comes the hard part for supporters of Labour MP Kim Leadbeater’s Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill, as opponents attempt to make major changes in the months ahead.
The Lords’ chamber was again packed for the debate, which this time began at 10am and lasted nearly six hours. In all, during 13 hours of debate over two days, nearly 200 peers spoke.
According to one estimate, over both days of the debate only around 50 peers spoke in favour of the bill and considerably more than 100 against, with only a handful neutral.
The bill proposes allowing terminally ill adults in England and Wales with fewer than six months to live to apply for an assisted death. Scotland’s parliament has already passed a similar law.
Image: Pro-assisted dying campaigners outside parliament earlier this month. Pic: PA
In a safeguard introduced in the Commons, an application would have to be approved by two doctors and a panel featuring a social worker, senior lawyer and psychiatrist.
The bill’s sponsor in the Lords, Charlie Falconer, said while peers have “a job of work to do”, elected MPs in the Commons should have the final decision on the bill, not unelected peers.
One of the most contentious moments in the first day of debate last Friday was a powerful speech by former Tory prime minister Theresa May, who said the legislation was a “licence to kill” bill.
That claim prompted angry attacks on the former PM when the debate resumed from Labour peers, who said it had left them dismayed and caused distress to many terminally ill people.
The former PM, daughter of a church of England vicar, had claimed in her speech that the proposed law was an “assisted suicide bill” and “effectively says suicide is OK”.
But opening the second day’s debate, Baroness Thornton, a lay preacher and health minister in Tony Blair’s government, said: “People have written to me in the last week, very distressed.
“They say things such as: ‘We are not suicidal – we want to live – but we are dying, and we do not have the choice or ability to change that. Assisted dying is not suicide’.”
Throughout the criticism of her strong opposition to the bill, the former PM sat rooted to her seat, not reacting visibly but looking furious as her critics attacked her.
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3:06
Assisted Dying: Reflections at the end of life
There was opposition to the bill, too, from grandees of the Thatcher and Major cabinets. Lord Deben, formerly John Gummer and an ex-member of the Church of England synod, said the bill “empowers the state to kill”.
And Lord Chris Patten, former Tory chairman, Hong Kong governor and Oxford University chancellor, said it was an “unholy legislative mess” and could lead to death becoming the “default solution to perceived suffering”.
Day two of the debate also saw an unholy clash between Church of England bishops past and present, with former Archbishop of Canterbury George Carey claiming opponents led by Archbishop of York Stephen Cottrell were out of touch with public opinion.
While a large group of bishops sat in their full robes on their benches, Lord Carey suggested both the Church and the Lords would “risk our legitimacy by claiming that we know better than both the public” and the Commons.
“Do we really want to stand in the way of this bill?” he challenged peers. “It will pass, whether in this session or the next. It has commanding support from the British public and passed the elected House after an unprecedented period of scrutiny.”
But Archbishop Cottrell hit back, declaring he was confident he represented “views held by many, not just Christian leaders, but faith leaders across our nation in whom I’ve been in discussion and written to me”.
And he said the bill was wrong “because it ruptures relationships” and would “turbocharge” the agonising choices facing poor and vulnerable people.
Image: A campaigner in opposition of the bill. Pic: PA
One of the most powerful speeches came from former Tory MP Craig Mackinlay, awarded a peerage by Rishi Sunak after a dramatic Commons comeback after losing his arms and legs after a bout of sepsis.
He shocked peers by revealing that in Belgium, terminally ill children as young as nine had been euthanised. “I’m concerned we want to embed an option for death in the NHS when its modus operandi should be for life,” he said.
And appearing via video link, a self-confessed “severely disabled” Tory peer, Kevin Shinkwin, was listened to in a stunned silence as he said the legislation amounted to the “stuff of nightmares”.
He said it would give the state “a licence to kill the wrong type of people”, adding: “I’m the wrong type. This bill effectively puts a price on my head.”
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2:09
Assisted Dying vote: Both sides react
After the debate, Labour peer and former MP Baroness Luciana Berger, an opponent of the bill, claimed a victory after peers accepted her proposal to introduce a special committee to examine the bill and report by 7 November.
“The introduction of a select committee is a victory for those of us that want proper scrutiny of how these new laws would work, the massive changes they could make to the NHSand how we treat people at the end of their lives,” she told Sky News.
“It’s essential that as we look at these new laws we get a chance to hear from those government ministers and professionals that would be in charge of creating and running any new assisted dying system.”
After the select committee reports, at least four sitting Fridays in the Lords have been set aside for all peers – a Committee of the whole house – to debate the bill and propose amendments.
Report stage and third reading will follow early next year, then the bill goes back to the Commons for debate on any Lords amendments. There’s then every chance of parliamentary ping pong between the two Houses.
Kim Leadbeater’s bill may have cleared an important hurdle in the Lords. But there’s still a long way to go – and no doubt a fierce battle ahead – before it becomes law.