Tesla (TSLA) delivery estimates are all over the place
Tesla (TSLA) is about to finish its quarter, and it is a confusing one for Wall Street. Delivery estimates are all over the place.
We reported earlier this month on Tesla analysts falling over themselves to downgrade their delivery estimates for the quarter.
Tesla has been growing deliveries at a roughly 50% rate per year until last year, when it started to slow down. Unlike other companies, Tesla doesn’t give clear guidelines, and therefore, analysts are left to try to figure out themselves with the available data.
Over the last few weeks, there’s one thing that analysts do agree on when it comes to Tesla: deliveries are going down.
In comparison, Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.
For Q1 2024, delivery estimates on Wall Street have been consistently reduced over the last few weeks.
Yesterday, Wedbush was the latest firm to update its estimate to 425,000 deliveries – down from 475,000. But the numbers are all over the place. Electrek has found estimates between 420,000 and 480,000 deliveries during the quarter.
Troy Teslike, one of the analysts with the most data-driven estimates, has been consistently downgrading his estimates as more data has been coming in. He is now down to an estimate of 420,000 deliveries:
The overall Wall Street consensus has come down quite a bit since this report, and it is now closer to 458,500 deliveries. However, as you can see, some suspect that it could be way lower.
Tesla is expected to release its Q1 2024 delivery and production numbers early next week.
Electrek’s Take
I think anything below 450,000 would be pretty bad for Tesla, but 420,000 would be awful. It would not only be way down from last quarter but even down year-over-year after an entire year of Tesla adding production capacity.
It’s also Cybertruck’s first full quarter of deliveries, but we shouldn’t expect it to contribute significantly.
420,000 would likely mean Tesla inventory growing, which would be difficult for Tesla’s financial results at the end of next month.
Now, Tesla does have a few excuses, especially the arson attack on Gigafactory Berlin, but at this point, I think it’s clear that demand is the problem.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla ends up using the excuse of Elon’s request to perform FSD Beta test drives before each delivery, which is undoubtedly going to increase the delivery workload at the end of the quarter.
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Environment
Baidu- and Geely-backed JiYue brand unveils ROBO X EV that goes 0-100 km/h in under 1.9 sec
JiYue, a Chinese EV brand focused on delivering all-electric “robocars” to the masses, has unveiled its latest model, and it’s quite a deviation from its previous EVs—but in the best way. Earlier today, JiYue launched the ROBO X supercar, designed for high-speed racing. By high speed, we mean 0-100 km/h acceleration in under 1.9 seconds. My mouth is watering.
JiYue has only existed since 2021, when parent tech company Baidu announced it was expanding from software development into physical EV production, joining forces with multinational automotive manufacturer Geely.
The new “robotic EV” marque initially launched as JIDU with $300 million in startup capital before garnering an additional $400 million in Series A funding, led by Baidu, in January 2022.
In August 2023, Geely took on a larger role in JIDU alongside a greater financial stake as the brand reimagined itself as JiYue, inheriting the JIDU logo and its flagship model, the 01 ROBOCAR.
In December 2023, Baidu and Geely unveiled a second model called the JiYue 07. It was born from JIDU’s ROBO-02 concept, which debuted in 2023 and was designed to compete against the Tesla Model 3 in China.
The 07 finally launched in China earlier this year with 545 miles of range. With an all-electric SUV and sedan on the market, JiYue has unveiled an exciting new entry in the form of a performance supercar called the ROBO X. Check it out:
JiYue’s new ROBO X EV is available for pre-order now
JiYue showcased its new ROBO X hypercar in front of the crowd at the 2024 Guangzhou Auto Show earlier today. Similar to previous models but with a unique spin, JiYue described the ROBO X as an AI smart-driving supercar that, for the first time, blends artificial intelligence and autonomous driving into a high-performance, race-ready EV.
When we say “high performance,” we mean a quad motor liquid-cooled drive system that can propel the ROBO X from 0 to 100 km/h (0 to 62 mph) in under 1.9 seconds. JiYue called the new ROBO X a “performance beast” with “the perfect balance of excellent aerodynamic performance and high downforce.” JiYue CEO Joe Xia was even bolder in his statements about the ROBO X:
For the next 20 years, the design of supercars will bear the shadow of Robo X. This is the best design in the history of Chinese automobiles today, and it is a landmark presence.
Fighter-style airflow ducts bolster the EV’s aerodynamics, efficiency, and overall posture. Per JiYue, the two-seater ROBO X is expected to deliver a maximum range of over 650 km (404 miles).
The new supercar features falcon-wing doors, a carbon fiber integrated frame, and a professional racing HALO safety system offering 360° of support. The interior features an AI smart cockpit with SIMO real-time feedback to give drivers an immersive racing experience.
Furthermore, JiYue said the vehicle will utilize parent company Baidu’s Apollo self-driving technology, which could make it the first electric supercar to apply pure-vision ADAS technology that enables track-level autonomous driving.
Following today’s unveiling of the ROBO X, JiYue has officially opened up pre-orders in China for RMB 49,999 ($6,915). That said, reservation holders will need to be patient as JiYue shared that it doesn’t expect to begin mass production of the ROBO X until 2027.
What do you think? Will people be talking about the ROBO X for the next 20 years?
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This week on Electrek’s Wheel-E podcast, we discuss the most popular news stories from the world of electric bikes and other nontraditional electric vehicles. This time, that includes the launch of the Lectric XPedition 2.0, Yamaha e-bikes pulling out of North America, LiveWire unveils an electric scooter concept, PNY readying its cargo e-scooters for pilot testing, Royal Enfield’s first electric motorcycle, and more.
The Wheel-E podcast returns every two weeks on Electrek’s YouTube channel, Facebook, Linkedin, and Twitter.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the Wheel-E podcast today:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 9:30 a.m. ET (or the video after 10:30 a.m. ET):
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Crude oil futures were on pace Friday for loss for the week, as a supply gut and a strong dollar depresses the market.
U.S. crude oil is down more than 2% this week, while Brent has shed nearly 2%.
Here are Friday’s energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate December contract: $68.56 per barrel, down 14 cents, or 0.2%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has shed about 4%.
- Brent January contract: $72.36 per barrel, down 20 cents, or 0.28%. Year to date, the global benchmark has lost nearly 6%.
- RBOB Gasoline December contract: $1.99 per gallon, up 0.46%. Year to date, gasoline has fallen more than 1%.
- Natural Gas December contract: $2.70 per thousand cubic feet, down 2.98%. Year to date, gas has gained more than 4%.
The International Energy Agency has forecast a surplus of more than 1 million barrels per day in 2025 on robust production in the U.S. OPEC revised down its demand forecast for the fourth consecutive month as demand in China remains soft.
A strong dollar also hangs over the market, as the greenback has surged in the wake of President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory.
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