Tesla has been growing deliveries at a roughly 50% rate per year until last year, when it started to slow down. Unlike other companies, Tesla doesn’t give clear guidelines, and therefore, analysts are left to try to figure out themselves with the available data.
Over the last few weeks, there’s one thing that analysts do agree on when it comes to Tesla: deliveries are going down.
In comparison, Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.
For Q1 2024, delivery estimates on Wall Street have been consistently reduced over the last few weeks.
Yesterday, Wedbush was the latest firm to update its estimate to 425,000 deliveries – down from 475,000. But the numbers are all over the place. Electrek has found estimates between 420,000 and 480,000 deliveries during the quarter.
Troy Teslike, one of the analysts with the most data-driven estimates, has been consistently downgrading his estimates as more data has been coming in. He is now down to an estimate of 420,000 deliveries:
The overall Wall Street consensus has come down quite a bit since this report, and it is now closer to 458,500 deliveries. However, as you can see, some suspect that it could be way lower.
Tesla is expected to release its Q1 2024 delivery and production numbers early next week.
Electrek’s Take
I think anything below 450,000 would be pretty bad for Tesla, but 420,000 would be awful. It would not only be way down from last quarter but even down year-over-year after an entire year of Tesla adding production capacity.
It’s also Cybertruck’s first full quarter of deliveries, but we shouldn’t expect it to contribute significantly.
420,000 would likely mean Tesla inventory growing, which would be difficult for Tesla’s financial results at the end of next month.
Now, Tesla does have a few excuses, especially the arson attack on Gigafactory Berlin, but at this point, I think it’s clear that demand is the problem.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla ends up using the excuse of Elon’s request to perform FSD Beta test drives before each delivery, which is undoubtedly going to increase the delivery workload at the end of the quarter.
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A Tesla Cybertruck caught on fire in the lot of a Tesla store in North Decatur, Georgia, near Atlanta. The local fire authorities suspect a battery fire.
While the Las Vegas accident involved firework-like explosives in the back of the Cybertruck and was likely intentional, foul play is not suspected in this other incident.
It happened in the early hours of December 31st at the Tesla store on Church Street in Decatur, Georgia.
The fire was quickly extinguished, but not before it destroyed the entire interior of the vehicle as well as the bed and the tires.
The Cybertruck explosion yesterday appears to have been foul play – although the situation is still under investigation.
Electric vehicle batteries can sometimes catch on fire, but statistically, they don’t catch on fire at a higher rate than fossil fuel-powered vehicles.
We recently reported that Tesla is having an issue with the Cybertruck’s battery pack. Tesla has referred to the problem as “cell dent.” Tesla is having to replace battery packs in many Cybertrucks, including some sitting at its lots, but there’s no evidence that this issue is linked this specific fire at this time.
Tesla has yet to issue a service bulletin or recall about this issue despite changing the battery pack of a few customers over it.
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If you own a Lucid EV, try saying “Hey Lucid” next time you drive it and see what happens. Lucid (LCID) launched a new AI assistant that allows you to interact with your vehicle in new ways. Here’s how it works.
Lucid launches new AI assistant for EV drivers
The new Lucid Assistant is a hands-free voice assistant powered by SoundHound Chat AI. The Chat AI platform was the first of its kind to go into production with integrated AI voice assist.
Like Amazon’s Alexa or Apple Siri, drivers can wake up their new AI assistant by saying, “Hey, Lucid.” From there, they can ask almost any question about sports, stocks, weather, etc., and get a response in real-time. The assistant also enables them to control various features, such as Navigation.
Have a question about your EV? With access to its full manual, you can also ask it anything about the vehicle’s functionality. Many Lucid Assistant features can be used without a cellular connection.
“Developing Lucid Assistant in cooperation with SoundHound enables us to deliver much more than a voice control feature,” Lucid’s Head of Software Engineering, Dr Jean-Philippe Gauthier, explained. He added that with frequent OTA updates, “Lucid Assistant can grow” with new functions and capabilities.
Lucid Air Pure interior (Source: Lucid)
SounHound AI’s COO, Michael Zagorsek, boasted, “We believe that SoundHound’s best-in-class voice technology opens up unlimited new opportunities for both drivers and OEMs, and will fundamentally change the way we interact with our vehicles into the future.
The company uses a proprietary approach to reduce the risk of “AI hallucinations” or misleading responses that many LLM (Large Language Models) use.
Instead, its technology ensures that the assistant uses the correct response from the most appropriate domain, such as generative AI or real-time.
Lucid had its third straight quarter with record EV deliveries in Q3. It also just launched its first electric SUV, the Gravity. The company will report Q4 and 2024 delivery numbers shortly, so stay tuned for more.
After securing a partnership to supply its advanced EV powertrain tech to Aston Martin in 2023, Lucid’s CEO Peter Rawlinson said the company is in active talks with “a couple” of automakers last month over similar partnerships.
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The Joint Office of Energy and Transportation today reported record-breaking numbers in its monthly update for US EV sales and public charger availability in November 2024. Let’s break it down.
EV sales keep on climbing
November 2024 was a big month for EVs. A total of 141,442 plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) were sold, which includes 117,929 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and 23,513 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). That’s an 11.5% increase from November 2023.
As of the end of November, over 1.4 million PEVs had been sold – an impressive 9% jump compared to the same period in 2023. PEVs now account for 10.4% of all light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales, up from 9.4% in 2023 and 6.8% in 2022.
New players like the Honda Prologue and Chevrolet Equinox EV are reshaping the market. Their sales rose 65% and 69%, respectively, from October to November. Ford also had a standout month, with Mustang Mach-E sales soaring 79% and the F-150 Lightning cracking the top 10 with a 96% jump.
More EV chargers, more confidence
Charging availability is keeping pace with EV sales. In November, 2,490 public EV charging ports were added nationwide – a 1.2% increase in the US network.
Among those, 14 new NEVI (National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure) stations went online, adding 56 fast-charging ports in Ohio, Hawaii, New York, and Texas. As of now, the US boasts:
205,000 charging ports across 74,500 locations
289 federally funded ports, including NEVI, CFI, and RAA program chargers
And that’s the tip of the iceberg – projects are underway to deploy over 24,000 federally funded chargers.
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