Tesla (TSLA) delivery estimates are all over the place
Tesla (TSLA) is about to finish its quarter, and it is a confusing one for Wall Street. Delivery estimates are all over the place.
We reported earlier this month on Tesla analysts falling over themselves to downgrade their delivery estimates for the quarter.
Tesla has been growing deliveries at a roughly 50% rate per year until last year, when it started to slow down. Unlike other companies, Tesla doesn’t give clear guidelines, and therefore, analysts are left to try to figure out themselves with the available data.
Over the last few weeks, there’s one thing that analysts do agree on when it comes to Tesla: deliveries are going down.
In comparison, Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.
For Q1 2024, delivery estimates on Wall Street have been consistently reduced over the last few weeks.
Yesterday, Wedbush was the latest firm to update its estimate to 425,000 deliveries – down from 475,000. But the numbers are all over the place. Electrek has found estimates between 420,000 and 480,000 deliveries during the quarter.
Troy Teslike, one of the analysts with the most data-driven estimates, has been consistently downgrading his estimates as more data has been coming in. He is now down to an estimate of 420,000 deliveries:
The overall Wall Street consensus has come down quite a bit since this report, and it is now closer to 458,500 deliveries. However, as you can see, some suspect that it could be way lower.
Tesla is expected to release its Q1 2024 delivery and production numbers early next week.
Electrek’s Take
I think anything below 450,000 would be pretty bad for Tesla, but 420,000 would be awful. It would not only be way down from last quarter but even down year-over-year after an entire year of Tesla adding production capacity.
It’s also Cybertruck’s first full quarter of deliveries, but we shouldn’t expect it to contribute significantly.
420,000 would likely mean Tesla inventory growing, which would be difficult for Tesla’s financial results at the end of next month.
Now, Tesla does have a few excuses, especially the arson attack on Gigafactory Berlin, but at this point, I think it’s clear that demand is the problem.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla ends up using the excuse of Elon’s request to perform FSD Beta test drives before each delivery, which is undoubtedly going to increase the delivery workload at the end of the quarter.
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Vammo, a battery-swapping service for electric motorcycles in Latin America, has just announced that the company has surpassed an impressive 1 million battery swaps in a little over a year.
The company has built its service around a combination of VMoto electric motorcycles and a battery-swapping service designed to keep those motorcycles rolling all day without stopping to charge.
Headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil, Vammo’s electric motorcycles and battery swap cabinets currently serve around 1,800 customers, with that number growing quickly. The service was launched just over a year ago and has already saved its customers a combined US $1.3 million in fuel costs. That’s on top of preventing the release of 3,050 tons of CO2 emissions.
Vammo’s subscription model saves users as much as 50% compared to gasoline-powered motorcycles, translating into annual savings of thousands of dollars. “Not only are we helping to cut carbon emissions by 85%, but we’re also putting significant savings back into the pockets of our customers,” said Jack Sarvary, Vammo’s co-founder and CEO. “Many of our users, especially delivery drivers, are saving as much as $2,000–$4,000 per year, making electric mobility both affordable and sustainable.”
That success has led to rapid growth for the company. Last year alone, Vammo saw 8x growth in both revenue and customer base.
“Our growth demonstrates the power of affordable, clean transportation,” said Billy Blaustein, Vammo’s COO. “We are proving that sustainable mobility can be both accessible and scalable.”
Vammo’s VMoto models have now become the #1 registered electric motorcycle brand in Brazil, likely making the company the top player in Latin America.
Battery swapping for electric motorcycles has gained significant interest in the last few years, especially as Gogoro has expanded its world-leading model for swappable electric scooter batteries. But unlike Gogoro, which built a swappable battery standard and then began persuading other companies to adopt it, Vammo built its service around existing electric motorcycles and their already operational battery designs.
Vammo began operations in São Paulo and has positioned its service as a solution not only for Brazil but also for broader Latin America.
Brazil is uniquely suited for electric motorcycles and battery swapping, as the country not only sells 4x the amount of motorcycles per year as the US, but has some of the cleanest electricity in the world. Over 90% of the country’s electricity is generated by clean sources, primarily hydroelectric power, with wind and solar also contributing to the mix. Compare that to the global average of just 13%.
Vammo is building on its momentum, recently announcing a partnership with app-based taxi provider 99, offering mototaxi drivers access to its electric motorcycles.
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