EPA’s Heavy Duty “Phase 3” truck rule has been finalized, and surprisingly enough it comes in stronger (albeit slightly) than the rule that was originally proposed last year.
The final rule has just come out, so there’s plenty to comb through, but the EPA went over some key points in a press call yesterday.
Transportation is the largest-polluting sector in America, and heavy duty vehicles make a disproportionate amount of that pollution. Light duty vehicles still produce the majority – about 60% of transportation emissions are from light-duty vehicles – but heavy duty vehicles are responsible for about a quarter of transportation emissions, despite only being 5% of vehicles.
This underlines the importance of regulating these vehicles, and the outsize gains that we can get from doing so.
New rule saves 1 billion tons CO2 and $13 billion/yr
The main numbers for the finalized rule are that it will save $13 billion per year in annualized net benefits for society, avoid a billion tons worth of greenhouse gas emissions, and reduce air pollution for the 72 million Americans who live within 200 meters of a heavy duty truck route (a group that is disproportionately from disadvantaged communities). The rules cover model years 2027-2032.
The cost and health savings make these rules a rare win-win-win. Businesses save money on costs (approx. $3.5b annually, between $3-10k per vehicle depending on type), health and environmental savings benefit everybody, and the industry gets nudged towards a future that it needs to accept anyway. Or, well… not that rare, considering most positive environmental moves offer these sorts of benefits.
Like the light-duty rules, the heavy-duty rules are “technology neutral,” in that they don’t mandate manufacturers use specific technologies, but rather meet certain pollution guidelines that will require significant improvements in engine technologies used. This means hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles are all on the table.
The rule actually got stronger for once
And the most remarkable thing about the rules is that they actually got (very slightly) stronger between the proposed and final rule, due to the 175,000 comments EPA said were left during the comment period.
EPA originally stated that the proposed rule would reduce carbon by 1.8 billion tons, but had to re-do the baseline of these calculations due to California’s strong truck rules, which will reduce overall emissions by a huge chunk (both in California and other states). Now, EPA says that the proposed rule would have reduced carbon by 998 million tons under the revised baseline, or 1 billion tons for the final rule. So, only improved by .2%, but still a tiny improvement, as opposed to going in the other direction.
This is not a common occurrence – we pointed out last week that the opposite happened with light-duty rules, and that this seems to be depressingly common lately. Whenever a new rule comes out, no matter how well-reasoned and attainable, industry lobbies for it to be loosened (and not just in the US, see: Europe, Australia), and usually compromises go their way, not the public’s way.
The changes between the proposed rule and the final one include a softening of the rules from 2027-2030 to give companies more time to arrange charging infrastructure, but also stronger emissions limits in 2031 and 2032 for most vehicle classes. For example, certain medium-heavy vocational vehicles will have 40% stronger limits in 2032 in the final rule as compared to Phase 2 regulation, rather than 35% in the proposed rule.
EPA didn’t break down every change between the proposed and final rule on the press call, because this rule covers so many different classes of vehicle. But overall, this is an improvement compared to the changes in the light duty rules – those only got weaker, whereas these got stronger, just with a little more flexibility in adoption timelines.
Broadly positive reaction to the heavy duty truck rule
Reaction has been broadly positive to the adoption of these phase 3 rules. The American Lung Association celebrated the rules, which along with the EPA’s previous NOx rule brings $22b in health savings per year, and pointed out the rarity of rules getting stronger during the rulemaking process. It also noted that Americans support strong truck regulations by extremely wide margins. Praise also came from the Sierra Club, the Hip Hop Council (who focused on the environmental justice aspect of these rules), and even from industry representatives.
Some industry sources did oppose these rules, or ask for them to be scaled back, such as various oil companies and some truck makers (for example Daimler Trucks and Volvo Trucks, both of which publicly supported the rule but privately called for its delay, despite being leaders in electrified trucks). But several large groups supported them.
In the runup to adoption of the rule, 100+ businesses called for a strong truck standard. This included a newly-formed industry group called the Heavy Duty Leadership Group, which called for rapid approval of a strong EPA rule, and each of its four participants – Ford, Cummins, BorgWarner and Eaton made statements praising the final rule that EPA adopted today. Even military leaders had good things to say about the new rule, through SAFE, an organization that advocates a break from oil from an energy and national security perspective.
How the Biden Administration has helped electrification from every angle
One strength of the rules is how comprehensive they are, especially when considering parallel regulations and incentives created by the administration. Many have pointed to individual EPA rules and stated that they are too narrow, or don’t properly acknowledge the full picture of how electrification would work. But when taken as a whole, the actions done by the EPA and the Biden administration cover almost every conceivable angle of the electrification of transportation.
So… that takes care of just about everything, right?
Electrek’s Take
As we always say, we’d never mind stronger rules than those that get implemented. We need to electrify transportation, and soon, and we simply aren’t doing enough to fight climate change.
And that’s the most impressive part about this rule. I lamented in the Take for the light-duty rule that regulations seem to always get compromised in favor of polluters, never in favor of the public interest. But this time, that didn’t happen – it’s a compromise, and the polluters did get a little bit of what they wanted, but the public also got even better final regulations than we originally were going to get, and it balanced out to a very slightly better rule in the end.
Like the Lung Association said (understatedly): “this does not always happen.” And yet, today, it did.
We can all be glad for that – and the 72 million Americans who live within 200 meters of a truck route, especially, will get to breathe a lot more cleanly in the coming years.
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GE Vernova has produced over half the turbines needed for SunZia Wind, which will be the largest wind farm in the Western Hemisphere when it comes online in 2026.
GE Vernova has manufactured enough turbines at its Pensacola, Florida, factory to supply over 1.2 gigawatts (GW) of the turbines needed for the $5 billion, 2.4 GW SunZia Wind, a project milestone. The wind farm will be sited in Lincoln, Torrance, and San Miguel counties in New Mexico.
At a ribbon-cutting event for Pensacola’s new customer experience center, GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik noted that since 2023, the company has invested around $70 million in the Pensacola factory.
The Pensacola investments are part of the announcement GE Vernova made in January that it will invest nearly $600 million in its US factories and facilities over the next two years to help meet the surging electricity demands globally. GE Vernova says it’s expecting its investments to create more than 1,500 new US jobs.
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Vic Abate, CEO of GE Vernova Wind, said, “Our dedicated employees in Pensacola are working to address increasing energy demands for the US. The workhorse turbines manufactured at this world-class factory are engineered for reliability and scalability, ensuring our customers can meet growing energy demand.”
SunZia Wind and Transmission will create US history’s largest clean energy infrastructure project.
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Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin, has filed for an initial public offering and plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange.
The prospectus, filed with the SEC on Tuesday, lays the groundwork for Circle’s long-anticipated entry into the public markets.
JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup are serving as lead underwriters, and the company is reportedly aiming for a valuation of up to $5 billion. It will trade under ticker symbol CRCL.
It marks Circle’s second attempt at going public. A prior merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) collapsed in late 2022 amid regulatory challenges. Since then, Circle has made strategic moves to position itself closer to the heart of global finance, including the announcement last year that it would relocate its headquarters from Boston to One World Trade Center in New York.
Circle reported $1.68 billion in revenue and reserve income in 2024, up from $1.45 billion in 2023 and $772 million in 2022. The company reported net income last year of about $156 million., down from $268 million a year earlier.
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A successful IPO would make Circle one of the most prominent pure-play crypto companies to list on a U.S. exchange. Coinbase went public through a direct listing in 2021 and has a market cap of about $44 billion.
Circle will be trying to hit the public markets at a volatile moment for tech stocks, with the Nasdaq having just wrapped up its steepest quarterly drop since 2022. The tech IPO market has been mostly dry for over three years, though there are signs of life. Online lender Klarna, digital health company Hinge Health and ticketing marketplace StubHub have all filed their prospectuses recently. Late last week, artificial intelligence infrastructure provider CoreWeave held the biggest IPO for a U.S. venture-backed tech company since 2021. But the company scaled back the offering and the stock had a disappointing first two days of trading before rebounding on Tuesday.
Circle is best known as the issuer of USD Coin (USDC), the world’s second-largest stablecoin by market capitalization.
Pegged one-to-one to the U.S. dollar and backed by cash and short-term Treasury securities, USDC has roughly $60 billion in circulation and makes up about 26% of the total market cap for stablecoins, behind Tether‘s 67% dominance. Its market cap has grown 36% this year, however, compared with Tether’s 5% growth.
The company’s push into public markets reflects a broader moment for the crypto industry, which is enjoying political favor under a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration. The stablecoin sector specifically has been ramping up as the industry gains confidence that the crypto market will get its first piece of U.S. legislation passed and implemented this year, focusing on stablecoins. President Donald Trump has said he hopes lawmakers will send stablecoin legislation to his desk before Congress’s August recess.
Stablecoins’ growth could have investment implications for crypto exchanges like Robinhood and Coinbase as they become a bigger part of crypto trading and cross-border transfers. Coinbase also has an agreement with Circle to share 50% of the revenue of its USDC stablecoin, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said on the company’s most recent earnings call that it has a “stretch goal to make USDC the number 1 stablecoin.”
The stablecoin market has grown about 11% so far this year and about 47% in the past year, and has become a “systemically important” part of the crypto market, according to Bernstein. Historically, digital assets in this sector have been used for trading and as collateral in decentralized finance (DeFi), and crypto investors watch them closely for evidence of demand, liquidity and activity in the market.
After its meteoric rise in the global auto industry last year, the Chinese EV giant is off to a hot start in 2025. BYD sold over one million EVs and plug-in hybrids in the first three months of the year. Even more impressive, BYD’s overseas sales doubled to start the year as it expands into new markets. With new EVs arriving, some predict BYD could see even more growth this year.
BYD’s overseas sales are surging as new EVs arrive
BYD sold 377,420 new energy vehicles (NEVs) last month alone. Like most Chinese automakers, BYD reports NEV sales, including plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and fully electric vehicles (EVs).
Of the 371,419 passenger vehicles BYD sold in March, 166,109 were EVs, and the other 205,310 were PHEVs. Combined, BYD’s sales were up 23% compared to last year.
BYD’s Dynasty and Ocean series accounted for 350,615, while its luxury Denza brand sold 12,620, Fang Cheng Bao had 8,051, and its ultra-luxury Yangwang brand sold another 133 models.
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Through the first three months of 2025, BYD sold over one million (1,000,804) NEVs. That’s up 60% from the 626,263 sold in Q1 2024. Fully electric models accounted for 416,388 while PHEV sales reached 569,710, an increase of 39% and 76% from last year, respectively.
BYD Dolphin (left) and Atto 3 (right) at the 2024 Tokyo Spring Festival (Source: BYD Japan)
BYD’s overseas sales reached a new record last month, with 72,723 vehicles sold in markets outside of China. Through March, BYD has sold over 206,000 NEVs overseas, more than double (+110%) the number it sold last year.
BYD has made a name for itself with ultra-low-cost EVs like the Seagull, which starts at under $10,000 in China. In overseas markets, like Mexico, it’s sold as the Dolphin Mini and starts at around 358,800 pesos, or around $20,000.
BYD Seagull EV (Dolphin Mini) testing in Brazil (Source: BYD)
The world’s largest EV maker is quickly expanding into new segments with pickup trucks, smart SUVs, luxury models, and electric supercars rolling out.
Last week, BYD launched the Yangwang U7, its first ultra-luxury electric sedan. With four electric motors, the U7 packs 1,287 horsepower, good for a 0 to 62 mph (0 to 100 km/h) sprint in just 2.9 seconds. It also has up to 720 km (447 miles) CLTC driving range.
BYD Yangwang U7 ultra-luxury electric sedan (Source: Yangwang)
The Porsche Panamera-size EV is loaded with BYD’s top-tier “God’s Eye” A advanced driving assistance system, DiPilot 600, and a host of other premium features. All of that, and it starts at just just 628,000 yuan ($87,700).
In Europe, BYD is aggressively expanding with new vehicles tailored to buyers in the region, like the Sealion 7 midsize SUV and Atto 2. It’s also expected to launch the low-cost Seagull EV in Europe later this year or early 2026 as the “Dolphin Surf.”
BYD’s wide-reaching electric vehicle portfolio (Source: BYD)
According to S&P Global Mobility, BYD’s sales are expected to double in Europe this year to around 186,000. By 2029, that number could reach 400,000 or more.
BYD outsold Honda and Nissan in 2024. As it aims to sell 5.5 million vehicles this year, BYD could be on track to surpass Ford in global sales this year. BYD also aims to sell over 800,000 EVs overseas in 2025, double the number it sold last year.
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