Sir Keir Starmer needs to level with voters – concrete change may only come in a second Labour term
It may have been Labour’s local election launch, but it was used by Sir Keir Starmer to roll out his national campaign messaging ahead of the general election later in the year: “The country needs change and we are the change.”
It is, if you like, a dry-run for the general election as Labour strategists target areas in their battleground seats around the West and East Midlands and Tees Valley. They will talk up Sir Keir‘s “national missions” and test out Tory attack lines.
There is no doubt that Labour is expected to win big as political watchers look to see if there will be a repeat of the sort of huge gains Sir Tony Blair saw in the 1996 local elections before his 1997 landslide.
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Labour strategists might mutter that in every general election year, the government gain seats in local elections even when there’s a change of government, but the expectation is that Labour could win hundreds of seats from the Conservatives and perhaps take the scalp of the Conservative West Midlands mayor Andy Street – while Sir Keir will be looking at this as an important staging post on his path to power, his opponent Rishi Sunak is just trying to survive.
But beyond the drama of the Conservative fortunes and the prime minister’s fate, what is also emerging in this election campaign is the secondary strap of Sir Keir’s ‘change’ message.
When he says change, what he really means is patience, and that is perhaps the national conversation we are going to be having much more in the run-up to this general election.
Because while Sir Keir likes to make long speeches diagnosing the maladies brought about in Britain after 14 years of Conservative rule, he’s less good at giving us remedies.
On Thursday in Dudley, when he laid into Mr Sunak for “strangling” levelling-up “at birth” and accused Boris Johnson of “preying on people’s hopes” and not delivering, his own answer is greater devolution of powers to local leaders to better deliver local growth and level up communities.
A (possible) solution that is a very slow medicine indeed at a time when local councils across England are struggling to provide basic services let alone more opportunities for their communities.
The more immediate issue for towns and cities across the country is the funding crisis in local councils.
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Levelling up ‘unforgivable’ failure
One in five council leaders said in December that their councils are “likely or fairly likely” to go bust in the next 15 months.
Birmingham effectively declared itself bankrupt earlier this month and was forced to lift bills by 21%, while cutting services.
With more on the brink, the Local Government Association says an emergency £4bn will be needed just to maintain basic services in the next two years.
When I asked Sir Keir if he would be able to commit this funding, he told me he “can’t turn on the spending taps” (and also said tax increases were not an option given the country’s tax burden – many Labour voters might disagree, but he and Rachel Reeves are immovable on this).
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What he did say was this: “At the end of an incoming Labour government councils will be better funded, more sustainable, able to deliver their services than they are now,” and when asked again to clarify whether looking again at funding settlements could involve an upfront cash injection, he was unequivocal: “What it means is not a lump sum cash injection”.
In other words, you’re going to have to wait for perhaps five years for better funded councils and better public services.
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So in the coming weeks, as you watch Labour try to manage expectations for what could be a May local election landslide, watch too for more of what I got more of a glimpse of in Dudley: a Labour leader desperately trying to manage expectations of what an incoming Labour government can do.
With the decisions he and Ms Reeves have made on fiscal management of the economy – effectively sticking closely to Conservative fiscal rules and eschewing any commitment to tax rises or spending increases – this will only become a bigger part of this change story as we get closer to deciding who should take power later this year.
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Sir Keir is going to campaign on the promise of change.
Where he needs to level with voters more is that they might have to wait for a second Labour term for concrete change to come.
Tulip Siddiq has sought to distance herself from her aunt, deposed Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina, claiming they never spoke about politics.
But Sky News can reveal that in a blog written by the now City minister she boasted about how close they were politically and published photos of them together.
In posts written in late 2008 and early 2009, when she was a Labour activist, Ms Siddiq described campaigning with her aunt in Bangladesh’s general election and celebrating her victory.
Our disclosure coincides with a new report in The Times which reveals how the embattled MP’s Labour Party flyers were found in the palace in Dhaka that belonged to her aunt, who was ousted in a coup last year.
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Labour’s Tulip Siddiq risks losing job
The blog is headed: “Tulip Siddiq, member of the Labour Party action team in Bloomsbury and King’s Cross”, and in a post on January 11, 2009, Ms Siddiq told supporters: “I was really busy in Bangladesh as you probably gathered…
“I’ve put up photos of Sheikh Hasina’s post-election press conference at Bangladesh-China Friendship Conference Centre in Dhaka.
“The most significant element of this press conference for me was Sheikh Hasina’s insistence that all the political parties in Bangladesh need to work together for the welfare of the country.
“It is no secret that past governments have not worked with the other political parties and we need to change this trend.
“The prime minister emphasised that the Awami League does not support the ‘politics of vengeance’ which is encouraging so let’s hope that a new political culture is created this year.”
She added: “Here’s an action shot of me with the prime minister at the press conference. I’m not sure what I was saying but it probably wasn’t that interesting!”
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‘Tulip Siddiq will lose job if she broke rules’
In a post on January 21, 2009, she wrote: “I was fortunate enough to travel with Sheikh Hasina in her car during election day.
“The prime minister-elect (Prime Ministerial candidate at the time!) drove to several constituencies in Dhaka and stopped quickly at each one to meet the parliamentary candidate or speak to the voters.”
Describing traveling in her aunt’s car, she wrote: “You can see all my photos from election day here… I apologise for the poor quality of some of the pictures. I was taking photos from inside her car which is actually quite difficult!”
“You’ll also see a photo of Dhaka Central Jail. I took that photo because Sheikh Hasina told me that this jail was practically her second home for most of her childhood as her father, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was under arrest for many years.
“She told me that she visited him with the rest of her family every weekend, so it was a very familiar landmark.”
Earlier, on December 29, 2008, under the heading “Victory!”, Ms Siddiq wrote: “The Awami League have won the elections by a landslide! Sheikh Hasina is the prime minister-elect! I am ecstatic!
“I’ve been on the campaign trail with Sheikh Hasina all day so I don’t really have the energy to write much more but I will do so tomorrow.
“However, I can’t resist uploading a couple of photos. This is Sheikh Hasina’s face just before she heard the results from an unwinnable constituency.
“Here she is after she heard that the Awami League hard work had paid off in that seat.”
The Times reports that political literature of Ms Siddiq, Sir Keir Starmer’s anti-corruption minister, was found at the heavily guarded palace in Dhaka, covered by dust and debris.
At the top of a staircase were items produced by Ms Sidddiq. One was a thank you note to local Labour Party members following her election as MP for Hampstead and Kilburn.
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Another was her annual report for 2022, inviting readers to learn about her help for those affected by the cost-of-living crisis.
The new disclosures will pile further pressure on Ms Siddiq and lead to further calls on the prime minister to sack her.
Many Labour MPs believe her ministerial career is now hanging by a thread.
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On Sky News earlier, cabinet minister Peter Kyle told Trevor Phillips Ms Siddiq was right to submit herself to an ethics investigation over corruption allegations and strongly hinted she would be sacked if found to have broken the ministerial code.
Asked whether she should stand down until she is cleared of impropriety, Mr Kyle said: “I think she’s done exactly the right thing. She’s referred herself that the inquiry needs to go through. I think that that’s the appropriate way forward.
“I’m giving it all the space it needs to do. I’ll be listening for the outcome as the Prime Minister will be.
“There was a process underway and we know full well it will be a functional process, and the outcomes of it will be stuck to by the prime minister and this government, a complete contrast to what we’ve had in the past.”
Sky News has approached Ms Siddiq and the Labour Party for comment.
There comes a point in the arc of most political scandals after which a resignation risks prompting more questions than it answers.
The danger for Tulip Siddiq – and by extension Sir Keir Starmer – is that threshold may about to be passed, if it hasn’t been already.
In other words, if she goes now, plenty will wonder why it didn’t happen sooner and why Downing Street allowed the story to gather pace and inflict further damage before acting.
The answer to this is partly because nothing has emerged so far that’s such an explicit rule break that it would trigger an automatic sacking or resignation.
That means the affair still resides – just about – in the box marked “looks bad” rather than the more sinister one marked “is bad”.
The standards adviser has been asked to “establish the facts” – a classic political technique to try and smother a story by announcing an inquiry.
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Cabinet minister Peter Kyle told Sky News the outcome of that exercise “will be stuck to”, meaning the junior Treasury minister will be relieved of her responsibilities if a breach of the government’s code of conduct is identified.
But some within Labour are contrasting this case with the rapid resignation of Louise Haigh as transport secretary after Sky News revealed she had pleaded guilty to an offence in court shortly before becoming an MP.
They suggest the key difference is that Ms Haigh was relatively left-wing and at odds with some in Downing Street, while Ms Siddiq is a constituency neighbour and ally of the prime minister.
“Keir Starmer has been consistently ruthless against people perceived to be more on the left of the party and very lenient with people perceived to be more on the right of the party,” said former Jeremy Corbyn adviser Andrew Fisher.
A counter to this is that Ms Siddiq is not a cabinet minister.
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Minister suggests Siddiq could lose job
That said, she does oversee efforts to combat financial crime, money laundering and corruption – three activities she is now finding herself linked to, albeit in a different country.
The fact she pulled out from the chancellor’s trip to China this weekend also opens an easy attack line that the story is already stopping her from doing her job.
So where does this go now?
There is a chance that something may emerge that forces an immediate departure.
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Engaging the standards adviser may also backfire if a technical breach potentially relating to declarations or conflicts of interest is found.
But a third option is potentially most damaging for the government – that Ms Siddiq becomes politically paralysed by the volume of stories surfacing and is forced to step down simply to stem the flow.
The government will “mainline AI into the veins” of the UK, with plans being unveiled today by Sir Keir Starmer.
The prime minister is set to promise investment, jobs and economic growth due to a boom in the sector.
It comes as his government battles against allegations they are mismanaging the economy and stymied growth with the budget last autumn.
The government’s announcement claims that, if AI is “fully embraced”, it could bring £47bn to the economy every year.
And it says that £14bn is set to be invested by the private sector, bringing around 13,000 jobs.
The majority of those would be construction roles to build new data centres and other infrastructure, with a smaller number of technical jobs once the work is finished.
Sir Keir said: “Artificial Intelligence will drive incredible change in our country. From teachers personalising lessons, to supporting small businesses with their record-keeping, to speeding up planning applications, it has the potential to transform the lives of working people.
“But the AI industry needs a government that is on their side, one that won’t sit back and let opportunities slip through its fingers. And in a world of fierce competition, we cannot stand by. We must move fast and take action to win the global race.”
The prime minister added that he wants Britain to be “the world leader” in AI.
The government announcement said: “Today’s plan mainlines AI into the veins of this enterprising nation.”
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To achieve this, the government will implement all 50 recommendations made by Matt Clifford following his review last year.
This includes creating new AI “growth zones” – the first of which is set to be in Culham, Oxfordshire, where the UK’s Atomic Energy Authority is based.
These zones will get faster planning decisions and extra power infrastructure.
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The government also wants to increase UK computing power 20-fold by 2030, including by building a brand-new supercomputer.
Labour cancelled a planned supercomputer when it entered office, as it claimed it wasn’t funded. The new venture is expected to be a joint public-private project.
The government says its plans will have three pillars. This includes laying the foundations with new AI growth zones and the new supercomputer.
The second is to boost AI take up by the public and private sectors. New pilots for AI in the public service are set to be announced, and Sir Keir has written to all cabinet ministers, telling them to drive AI adoption and growth.
And the third pillar is keeping ahead of the pack, with the government set to establish a “team” to keep the UK “at the forefront of emerging technology”.
The announcement was welcomed by a slew of technology bosses.
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Chris Lehane, the chief global affairs officer at OpenAI, which released ChatGPT, said: “The government’s AI action plan – led by the prime minister and [Science] Secretary Peter Kyle – recognises where AI development is headed and sets the UK on the right path to benefit from its growth.
“The UK has an enormous national resource in the talent of its people, institutions and businesses which together, can leverage AI to advance the country’s national interest.”
The shadow secretary for science, innovation and technology, Alan Mak, said: “Labour’s plan will not support the UK to become a tech and science superpower. They’re delivering analogue government in a digital age.
“Shaping a successful AI future requires investment, but in the six months leading up to this plan, Labour cut £1.3bn in funding for Britain’s first next-generation supercomputer and AI research whilst imposing a national insurance jobs tax that will cost business in the digital sector £1.66bn.
“AI does have the potential to transform public services, but Labour’s economic mismanagement and uninspiring plan will mean Britain is left behind.”
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