Tories could be left with ‘fewer than 100’ MPs after next general election, major poll says

Published

1 year ago

March 30, 2024

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Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on course to win fewer than 100 seats in the general election, according to a major poll that suggests the party is facing the worst result in its history.

A survey of 15,000 people, used to build a seat-by-seat breakdown, indicated the Tories would win in just 98 constituencies in England and get wiped out in Scotland and Wales.

Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer could be swept into power with a landslide victory of 468 seats, the study for Survation forecast.

The survey put Labour on 45%, with the Tories 19 points behind on 26%.

It gave the Scottish National Party 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.

In 2019 the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.

The prime minister himself is in danger of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond & Northallerton seat in North Yorkshire, as his lead over Labour is just 2.4%.

Several other cabinet ministers, including potential leadership contenders, could also be ousted.

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps would all lose their seats, according to the study for the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group.

Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch looks likely to retain her seat, along with former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick.

But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is another who could be voted out as he has just a 1% advantage over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.

The poll highlights the threat posed to the Conservatives by Reform UK, which is forecast to come second in seven seats by polling 8.5% of the overall vote.

A model of the likely outcome if Richard Tice’s party did not stand, suggested the Tories would win 150 seats – still a crushing defeat, but potentially giving Mr Sunak, or more likely his replacement, a better chance to rebuild.

Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”

The poll of 15,029 adults by Survation, which used a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results, was carried out between 8 and 22 March.

In a sign of Reform UK’s ambitions, Tory MP Bob Seely revealed he had been approached to defect to the Nigel Farage-linked party.

Writing in the Sun on Sunday, he said: “I said no to Reform because I believe in loyalty. I don’t cut and run, and neither should we.”

A Reform spokesman told the newspaper: “If he wants to turn down the only chance he has of saving his skin, well, that’s up to him.”

Politics

Why a ‘Trump-fest’ could be just the tonic for a special relationship under strain

Published

4 hours ago

April 18, 2025

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Why a 'Trump-fest' could be just the tonic for a special relationship under strain

It was perhaps not quite how officials, in London at least, had envisaged the announcement of the state visit would be made.

In the Oval Office, Donald Trump revealed the news in his own way.

“I was invited by the King and the great country. They are going to do a second fest – that’s what it is. It is beautiful,” he said during an impromptu Oval Office moment.

The question was, did this “fest” – which Mr Trump suggested could happen in September – amount to the much hyped second state visit for the American president?

Or was this actually just the smaller visit that had been offered two months ago as an initial bilateral visit at which the state visit would be discussed?

Back in February, Sir Keir Starmer presented the president with a letter from King Charles and the offer of a state visit.

The letter proposed an initial meeting between the King and the president to discuss details of the state visit at either Dumfries House or Balmoral, both in Scotland, close to Mr Trump’s golf clubs.

The King wrote: “Quite apart from this presenting an opportunity to discuss a wide range of issues of mutual interest, it would also offer a valuable chance to plan a historic second state visit to the United Kingdom… As you will know this is unprecedented by a US president. That is why I would find it helpful for us to be able to discuss, together, a range of options for location and programme content.”

As he revealed the news of his “fest” with his “friend Charles”, Mr Trump said: “I think they are setting a date for September…”

Sources have since confirmed to Sky News that it will amount to the full state visit.

‘Even more important’

It’s possible the initial less formal presidential trip may still happen between now and September. Mr Trump is in Europe for the NATO summit in June and is due in Scotland to open a new golf course soon too.

“It is the second time it has happened to one person. The reason is we have two separate terms, and it’s an honour to be a friend of King Charles and the family, William,” the president said.

“I don’t know how it can be bigger than the last one. The last one was incredible, but they say the next one will be even more important.”

His last state visit in 2019, at the invitation of the late Queen, drew significant protests epitomised by the giant blow-up “Baby Trump” which floated over Parliament Square.

Britain’s trump card

September is a little earlier than had been expected for the visit. It may be an advantage for it to happen sooner rather than later, given the profoundly consequential and controversial nature of the first few months of his second term.

The decision by the British government to play its “state visit trump card” up front back in February drew some criticism.

And since February, Mr Trump’s position on numerous issues has been increasingly at odds with all of America’s allies.

On Ukraine, he has seemingly aligned himself closely with Vladimir Putin. His tariffs have caused a global economic shock. And on issues like Greenland and Canada, a member of the Commonwealth, he has generated significant diplomatic shock.

A risk worth taking

Mr Trump is as divisive among the British public as he is in America. Sir Keir is already walking a political tightrope by choosing the softly softly approach with the White House.

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The UK government chose not to retaliate against Mr Trump’s tariffs, unlike some allies. Sir Keir and his cabinet have been at pains not to be seen to criticise the president in any way as they seek to influence him on Ukraine and seek an elusive economic deal on tariffs.

On that tariff deal, despite some positive language from the US side and offers on the table, there has yet to be a breakthrough. A continuing challenge is engaging with the president for decisions and agreements only he, not his cabinet, will make.

British officials acknowledge the risk the state visit poses. In this presidency, anything could happen between now and September.

But they argue British soft power and Mr Trump’s fondness for the Royal Family and pomp – or a “fest” as he calls it – amount to vital diplomatic clout.

For a special relationship under strain, a special state visit is the tonic.

Politics

Hashkey takes aim at XRP ETF in Asia with new fund backed by Ripple

Published

6 hours ago

April 18, 2025

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Hashkey takes aim at XRP ETF in Asia with new fund backed by Ripple

Hong Kong-based crypto investment firm HashKey Capital announced the launch of an XRP fund, with plans to convert it into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the future.

According to an April 18 announcement, the fund, officially titled the HashKey XRP Tracker Fund, is reportedly “the first investment fund in Asia designed to track the performance of XRP.”

XRP developer Ripple will serve as the fund’s anchor investor. In a separate X post, HashKey Capital said the fund aims to bring “more institutional capital into regulated XRP products and the broader digital asset ecosystem.”

Close collaboration with Ripple

In another X post, HashKey Capital said the fund marks the beginning of a closer collaboration with Ripple. The two firms “are exploring new investment products, cross-border DeFi solutions, and tokenization —including the possibility of launching a money market fund (MMF) on the XRP ledger.”

In the announcement, HashKey Capital partner Vivien Wong said the firm will share its connections with financial institutions, regulators and investors in Asia with Ripple, adding:

“Ripple offers us the opportunity to collaborate on more investment products and solutions across cross-border payment solutions, decentralized finance (DeFi), and enterprise blockchain adoption.”

A Hong Kong XRP ETF in the works?

The XRP (XRP) Tracker Fund is HashKey Capital’s third tracker fund and follows the firm’s Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETF products. The company noted that this product may also become an ETF in the future.

A boon for XRP’s institutional adoption in Asia

Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research, a crypto investment firm based in Asia, told Cointelegraph that “the launch of the XRP Tracker Fund by HashKey Capital marks a pivotal moment for institutional adoption” in the region. He said regulated and transparent products like Hashkey’s fund are what institutional investors need to enter the market.

“XRP’s proven use case in cross-border payments, combined with HashKey’s robust infrastructure, sets the stage for meaningful capital inflows and wider acceptance of crypto assets in global finance,“ Huang said.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple and industry with no crypto legal precedent set

Politics

Altcoins may rally in Q2 2025 thanks to improved regulations: Sygnum

Published

7 hours ago

April 18, 2025

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Altcoins may rally in Q2 2025 thanks to improved regulations: Sygnum

Altcoins may see a resurgence in the second quarter of 2025 as regulations for digital assets continue to improve, according to Swiss bank Sygnum.

In its Q2 2025 investment outlook, Sygnum said the space has seen “drastically improved” regulations for crypto use cases, creating the foundations for a strong alt-sector rally for the second quarter. However, it added that “none of the positive developments have been priced in.”

In April, Bitcoin dominance reached a four-year high, signaling that crypto investors are rotating their funds into an asset perceived to be relatively safer.

But Sygnum believes regulatory developments in the US, such as President Donald Trump’s establishment of a Digital Asset Stockpile and advancing stablecoin regulations, could propel broader crypto adoption.

“We expect protocols successful in gaining user traction to outperform and Bitcoin’s dominance to decline,” Sygnum wrote.

Increased focus on economic value ignites competition

Sygnum also said that competition would increase as the market focuses on economic value. Increased competition in a market often results in better products, ultimately benefiting consumers:

“The market’s increased focus on economic value compels greater competition for user growth and revenues, with rising protocols such as Toncoin, Sui, Aptos, Sonic, or Berachain taking different approaches.”

Sygnum added that while high-performance blockchains address limitations of the Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana blockchains, these chains find it challenging to achieve meaningful adoption and fee income.

The report highlighted that some approaches have been more sustainable. These include Berachain’s approach of incentivizing validators to provide liquidity to decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, Sonic’s rewarding developers that attract and retain users, and Toncoin’s Telegram affiliation to access one billion users.

Aside from layer-1 chains, Sygnum highlighted that layer-2 networks like Base also have potential. The report pointed out that while the memecoin frenzy on the blockchain pushed its users and revenue to new highs, it made an equally sharp decline after memecoins started losing steam.

Despite this, Sygnum noted that Base remains the layer-2 leader in metrics like daily transactions, throughput and total value locked.

Memecoins still a leading crypto narrative in Q1

Despite recent price declines, memecoins remained a dominant crypto narrative in Q1 2025. A CoinGecko report recently highlighted that memecoins remained dominant as a crypto narrative in the first quarter of 2025. The crypto data company said memecoins had 27.1% of global investor interest, second only to artificial intelligence tokens, which had 35.7%.

While retail investors are still busy with memecoins, institutions have a different approach. Asset manager Bitwise reported on April 14 that publicly traded firms are stacking up on Bitcoin. At least twelve public companies purchased Bitcoin for the first time in Q1 2025, pushing public firm holdings to $57 billion.