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No wonder the Labour Party is desperate for a general election now and bitterly disappointed that Rishi Sunak has “bottled it”, in Keir Starmer’s words, and is sticking to his plan not to hold it until the autumn at the earliest.

Sir John Curtice, the UK polling guru, has gone on the record that there is “a 99% chance of Labour forming the next administration”.

What could possibly go wrong for Labour between now and the verdict of the voters?

Curtice’s one-in-a-hundred chance of falling short is comforting for Sir Keir Starmer, but nobody around him is treating victory as a done deal.

No one has slipped up in the way Cherie Blair did in the run-up to the 1997 election when she chatted to ITN’s political editor about “when” not “if” the family would be in Downing Street.

Party workers of all kinds, including the shadow cabinet, regional organisers, special advisers and press officers are being summoned to HQ for “no complacency” pep talks.

Pic: Reuters
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Sir Keir’s worries are dwarfed by the problems facing the Tories. Pic: Reuters

Trump’s 2016 win is a warning against complacency

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At the start of the year, Starmer’s campaign manager Morgan McSweeney even produced a slide pack on the theme “polls do not predict the future”.

It listed recent examples from Australia, Germany and Norway, among others, where a party’s sustained lead in opinion polls did not deliver on the day. Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 being Exhibit A.

The country is three months further on from then and three months closer to the election.

Labour has sustained its remarkable lead of around 18 points for another three months, a gap that has been that wide for two years since Boris Johnson hit the skids.

And any local difficulties for Starmer are dwarfed by continuing troubles for the Tories.

Even as he tries to point to slightly improving economic circumstances, Rishi Sunak has been beset by further resignations.

Nevertheless, the Labour leadership is braced for a “narrowing in the polls”.

Pic: Reuters
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Some believe the PM will hold the election on his two-year anniversary. Pic: Reuters

The local elections in England and Wales on 2 May will be a big test of “real votes in real ballot boxes”, which politicians always say they prefer to polls.

In the last set of these elections, the Conservatives were on a high with a vote share calculated at 40%, with Labour on 30%. Those tables need to be more than reversed if Labour is to live up to its advanced billing, with the Tories dropping towards a vote share in the low 20s.

That would mean the Conservatives losing around 500 seats net – more than half of those they currently hold.

Read more from Sky News:
How Tory MPs can get rid of Sunak – and who could replace him

The possible path to a summer election

Public interest, like voter turnout, tends to be higher in the big mayoral contests.

In London, the government has changed the rules to first past the post to damage the chances of Labour’s Sadiq Khan winning a third term.

Some Conservative campaigners are also playing dirty against him – as shown by a grim online video this week containing shots taken from New York City backed up with questionable presentation of crime statistics.

Khan says this is his hardest election but it seems unlikely that he will be defeated by Susan Hall, the Tory candidate in the capital’s mayoral race.

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan at the launch of his poster campaign.
Pic: PA
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Khan’s ULEZ policy caused anger but he’ll probably keep his job. Pic: PA


By any measure, it would be a major shock if Labour fails to win back Blackpool South in the parliamentary by-election, which the Conservatives hope to bury in the excitement of local elections day.

The Conservatives have higher hopes elsewhere following the de facto bankruptcy of Birmingham Council.

It would be a grave blow to them if Andy Street is not re-elected as mayor of the West Midlands. Especially if coupled with defeat in the Tees Valley for Sunak’s controversial poster boy Lord (Ben) Houchen.

Conversely, should Labour underperform and the Tories hang on to some trophy mayors, there is renewed speculation that Sunak might be tempted to go for a general election in June. Not everyone agrees.

One grandee from the John Major years observed “it is very difficult to persuade a prime minister to lose now because he’ll only lose worse later”.

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A summer general election could come about another way if the Conservative local election performance is very bad.

In that scenario, Sunak’s allies expect him to go to the country rather than face a vote of no confidence by Tory MPs.

Labour’s will to win

On the assumption that the government struggles on through the summer, parliament is set to finalise the Rwanda deportation legislation when they return from their Easter break in mid-April.

The Conservatives are hoping for a boost in popularity if a flight gets off soon after that – or at least to reduce the threat from Reform and others on the right.

Sir Keir Starmer is also likely to find himself dealing with fractious elements in his party over the summer. There is no sign of peace in either of the conflict zones of Israel-Gaza or Ukraine-Russia.

Jeremy Corbyn and his backers do not share Starmer’s instincts in either conflict.

There are many pro-Palestinians among Labour’s likely voters. A divisive decision on whether to re-instate Diane Abbott in the party is looming, as is the choice of Labour candidate to stand in Corbyn’s Islington North constituency.

Angela Rayner  and  Keir Starmer during the Labour Party local elections campaign launch at the Black Country & Marches Institute of Technology in Dudley
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Angela Rayner’s capital gains tax affairs are being investigated by police. Pic: PA

Greater Manchester Police have reopened their inquiries into deputy leader Angela Rayner’s alleged non-payment of capital gains tax on her home.

Labour’s will to win is currently as strong as the Conservatives’ is weak. That and, firm discipline from the leadership, should keep the party broadly united.

Some on both left and right will continue to speak up – amplified by the many Tory sympathisers in the media.

In the space of a few days this week, the left-wing polemicist Owen Jones publicised his resignation from Labour and Peter Mandelson fired a warning shot on behalf of business against Rayner’s proposed new deal for workers.

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The likely dates PM will go to polls after rocky conferences

As things stand, the party conference season should go ahead as normal in September.

If they run true to form, any Labour discontent will bubble to the surface in Liverpool, while the Conservatives will try to use Birmingham to launch their general election campaign.

Some expect Sunak to use his leader’s speech to confirm polling day as Thursday 24 October – the day when he will chalk up precisely two years as prime minister.

Two hardened former cabinet ministers told me their working assumption is that it will not be until the 14 or 21 November, after the US election on 5 November. If it is Trump, he is bound to stick his oar into UK politics.

No prime minister, I am assured, would ruin Christmas by holding out until the last legal date in late January 2025 but, in extremis, 19 December this year remains a possibility, in the hope of repeating some of Boris Johnson‘s 2019 differential turnout coup.

Better late than never. It looks as if Sir Keir Starmer still has many months to navigate through until the Curtice-promised land of that general election.

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‘Time to grieve’: Paid bereavement leave should cover miscarriage, MPs say

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'Time to grieve': Paid bereavement leave should cover miscarriage, MPs say

Women and their partners should be given paid time off work if they experience a miscarriage, MPs have said.

As of April 2020, employees can be eligible for statutory parental bereavement leave, including pay, if they have a stillbirth after 24 weeks of pregnancy, but there is no specific leave for a pre-24 week miscarriage.

The Women and Equalities Committee (WEC) is recommending the two-week leave period should now be made available to women who experience a miscarriage, and their partners who support them.

An estimated one in five pregnancies end before 24 weeks, with as many as 20% ending in the first 12 weeks, known as early miscarriage.

The cross-party group of MPs acknowledged that while a “growing number of employers have specific pregnancy loss leave and pay policies” there remains a “very substantial” gap in support.

And while the introduction of baby loss certificates was welcome it “does not go far enough and it should be backed up by statutory support”.

Many women are forced to take sick leave, which the committee says is an “inappropriate and inadequate” form of employer support as it does not afford women adequate confidentiality or dignity and puts them at high risk of employment discrimination.

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Charlotte Butterworth-Pool, 34, has suffered two pregnancy losses before 24 weeks.

Charlotte Butterworth
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Charlotte Butterworth-Pool is one of many women left with no option but taking sick leave after miscarriage

She didn’t tell her employer about the first – as she “just so happened to have the week off” – but her devastation after the second meant she spoke to her workplace.

“I took a week off sick and had to spend the full week in bed,” she tells Sky News. “But then I had to go back to work, and everyone knew I was expecting a baby, which was upsetting. That was quite difficult to manage.”

Ms Butterworth-Pool says she “probably would have taken longer [off]” if a statutory policy had been in place.

The committee intends to put forward amendments to the government’s Employment Rights Bill, in the name of WEC’s Chair, Labour MP Sarah Owen.

This recommendations would cover anyone who experiences miscarriages, ectopic pregnancy, molar pregnancy, in vitro fertilisation embryo transfer loss, or who has a termination for medical reasons.

Sarah Owen. Pic: UK Parliament
Image:
Sarah Owen. Pic: UK Parliament

“I was not prepared for the shock of miscarrying at work during my first pregnancy,” Ms Owen said.

“Like many women, I legally had to take sick leave. But I was grief stricken, not sick, harbouring a deep sense of loss.”
She added that the case for a minimum standard in law is “overwhelming”.

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“A period of paid leave should be available to all women and partners who experience a pre-24-week pregnancy loss. It’s time to include bereavement leave for workers who miscarry in new employment rights laws.”

‘We need more compassion for mums and their loss’

A number of women have backed the committee’s proposal, including Leila Green, 41, who says “people just didn’t understand why I couldn’t just get on with it” after she suffered a pregnancy loss.

Ms Green, who went on to have triplets, even found it hard to explain her feelings to her husband.

“He didn’t know that baby, that baby was a stranger to him,” she says. “But the baby shared my blood, I knew that baby. I had all these wonderful ideas of what I would do with this wonderful child that got snatched away so suddenly.”

She now supports women with her organisation F**k Mum Guilt and adds: “We need more compassion for mums and their loss. You cannot expect us to act like robots.

“If we go on like nothing has happened, it’s like a ticking time bomb waiting to go off.”

Tess Woodward, 35, has experienced six pregnancy losses and felt like “the rug had been pulled out from under us” after the first in 2020.

Tess Woodward
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Tess Woodward and her husband

“Physically I had to take some time off work for the surgery, and then to recover from it,” she says. “Emotionally, it was very difficult to deal with.”

Ms Woodward’s employer offered her all the support she needed but prior to this, she admits she had been worried.

The fact she was supported “removed some of the extra worry that could have been there,” she adds.

A spokesperson from the Department for Business and Trade said: “Losing a child at any stage is incredibly difficult and we know many employers will show compassion and understanding in these circumstances.

“Our Employment Rights Bill will establish a new right to bereavement leave, make paternity and parental leave a day one right, and strengthen protections for pregnant women and new mothers returning to work.”

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England’s special educational needs system is a postcode lottery in urgent need of funding and reform, say MPs

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England’s special educational needs system is a postcode lottery in urgent need of funding and reform, say MPs

Thousands of children are being failed because of the “inequitable” special educational needs system, MPs have said.

In a damning report the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) says too many families are struggling to access support their children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) “desperately need”.

Over the past nine years, the number of young people receiving SEND support in state schools has increased by 140,000 from 1m to 1.14m. Budgets have not kept pace, leading to a “crisis” in the system.

Children with even more complex support needs are legally entitled to education, health and care (EHC) plans, and the number of these obligations has more than doubled, increasing by 140% to 576,000.

Local authority spending on SEND has consistently outstripped government funding, leading to substantial deficits in council budgets.

Representatives of the chief financial officers of 40 councils in England, the SCT, estimate that rising demand and costs have resulted in SEND deficits of £4bn among English councils, projected to grow to £5.9bn this year. 

This increase is not unusual, with similar rises seen in other high-income countries, but the committee notes that the Department for Education could do more to better understand the reasons behind the rise.

In response to today’s report, Cllr Roger Gough, children’s social care spokesperson for the County Councils Network, said: “While government has committed to reform, it is vital that it is done quickly and correctly. Both councils and families can ill-afford to wait.

“We need the government to set out a comprehensive reforms package and begin to implement them within the next 12 months, including immediate clarity on how government intends to address councils’ deficits.”

Eats into wider schools funding

A recent report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) on education spending in England found that despite an expected fall in pupil numbers in coming years, forecasted increases in spending on SEND are projected to undo any resulting savings.

The PAC report found that increased spends were already eating into school budgets, with more than half of the increase in school funding between 2019 and 2024 explained by growth in high needs SEND funding.

As a result, an 11% real terms increase in funding over the period only equated to a 5% increase in mainstream school funding per pupil.

Luke Sibieta, research fellow at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told Sky News: “We’ve seen rapid rise in the number of pupils with the most severe special needs over the last 6-7 years.

“Numbers have gone up by around 70% and funding has gone up by 60%, so it hasn’t met the rapid increase in numbers.

“That puts mainstream school budgets under real pressure. With half the budget going towards educational needs, the amount left over for extra resources elsewhere in the system will be quite small.

“It’s a picture of rapidly rising demand that just soaks up any funding increase really quickly.”

Postcode lottery in services

Beyond the funding crisis, the Public Accounts Committee’s report highlights serious issues with the current standard of SEND services available in different parts of the country.

They describe a postcode lottery of services, with the quality of support varying significantly between council areas.

In 2023, only half of education, health and care plans for high support needs children and young people were issued within the legal 20-week limit.

Families in neighbouring local authorities could experience very different EHC plan waiting times, with 71.5% of EHC plans written on time in Lambeth compared to 19.2% in neighbouring Southwark.

Parents are also increasingly appealing EHC plan decisions, with the number of appeals more than doubling from 6,000 in 2018 to 15,600 in 2023.

Nearly all (98%) of these were found either partially or wholly in favour of the parents, which the Department for Education recognises as poor value for money and contributing to families’ low confidence in the system.

“Lost generation” of children

The inquiry report concludes that a “lost generation” of children could leave school without having received the help they need without urgent reform of the system, and lays out seven key recommendations.

These include working with local authorities as a matter of urgency to develop a fair budget solution to the immediate financial challenges facing many as a result of SEND related overspends.

They also call on the government to set out the provision which children with SEND should expect, and how schools will be held to account, as well as earlier identification of SEND and improved teacher training, within the next six months.

Commenting on the report, Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the National Education Union, said: “Teachers have described navigating the current system as ‘spinning plates on a roller coaster’. Recommending that a plan of action is in place to resolve the lack of provision, support and resources is clearly good to see.

“The High Needs funding system is fundamentally broken. With EHC plan numbers continuing to rise the current shortfall in SEND funding will only continue to grow.”

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Apple AI feature ‘must be revoked’ over notifications misleading users, say journalists

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Apple AI feature 'must be revoked' over notifications misleading users, say journalists

Apple AI is sending misleading push notifications about sensitive stories like Gisele Pelicot’s mass rape trial, Britain’s grooming gang scandal and a prison officer filmed having sex with an inmate.

Concerns have now been raised with Apple by multiple news organisations over the AI summary feature, which is available on iPhones with Apple Intelligence.

The feature “must be revoked”, the National Union of Journalists told Sky News, as the “inaccurate news summaries shared to audiences through Apple Intelligence demonstrate the feature is not fit for purpose”.

The feature uses artificial intelligence to summarise notifications “so you can scan them for key details”, according to Apple.

However, the AI has been incorrectly summarising news stories from newsrooms like the BBC, Sky News and the Telegraph and creating misleading and inaccurate headlines.

A mock-up of the two push notifications shows the original Jess Phillips headline and Apple AI's summary
Image:
A mock-up of the two push notifications shows the original Jess Phillips headline and Apple AI’s misleading summary

In one example created for a Sky News story, the feature incorrectly suggested safeguarding minister Jess Phillips called for a new inquiry into Britain’s grooming gangs.

This was incorrect.

The original headline was: “Jess Phillips tells Sky News there could be a new national inquiry into grooming gangs if victims ask for one”.

The wider story about grooming gangs was sensitive and controversial, with Elon Musk attacking the MP and Sir Keir Starmer for not holding a national inquiry.

A mock-up of the two headlines on a story about Gisele Pelicot
Image:
A mock-up of the two headlines on a story about Gisele Pelicot

In another example of a sensitive story being inaccurately summarised, Apple’s AI said mass rape victim Gisele “defended her convictions”.

The original headline read: “Gisele Pelicot says she went to court ‘for my children and grandchildrenafter convictions in mass rape trial”.

Gisele Pelicot was the victim of rape by more than 50 men, after her ex-husband drugged, raped and advertised her on the internet. Her rapists have been sentenced to more than 400 years in prison.

The Apple AI summary of this headline missed off the new element of the story
Image:
The Apple AI summary of this headline missed off the new element of the story

A third example was the recent news about a prison officer being jailed for 15 months after being filmed having sex with a prisoner summarised as “prison officer filmed having sex with inmate”.

The summarised headline missed the new element of the story, which was the officer had been jailed.

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Sky News has now raised concerns with Apple about the summaries, over worries that the feature could erode trust in the news and the organisation’s reputation.

An Apple AI summary said Luke Littler had won the championship before he'd even competed in the final, as this mock-up shows
Image:
An Apple AI summary said Luke Littler had won the championship before he’d even competed in the final, as this mock-up shows

The BBC also previously complained to the tech giant after the feature inaccurately told readers that darts player Luke Littler had won the PDC World Championship – before he played in the final.

“These AI summarisations by Apple do not reflect – and in some cases completely contradict – the original BBC content,” a BBC spokesperson told Sky News.

“It is critical that Apple urgently addresses these issues as the accuracy of our news is essential in maintaining trust.”

The NUJ’s general secretary Laura Davison said: “With each story inaccurately shared, Apple positions itself amid actors spreading harmful misinformation, condemned by all who recognise the importance of ethical and credible journalism.

“There have now been multiple examples of these errors and at a time of polarisation amid audiences on highly sensitive news stories dominating the media, the editorial integrity and reputation of journalists and outlets should not be weakened in this manner.

“Doing so only risks the erosion of public trust and confidence in news,” she said.

A mock up shows the comparison between a Telegraph headline and the Apple AI summary
Image:
A mock-up shows the comparison between a Telegraph headline and the Apple AI summary

In another recent example, the summary told Telegraph readers the prime minister had changed his stance on farmer inheritance tax and was now backing farmers.

Apple appeared to confuse the headline “Blow to Starmer as supermarket giant backs farmers over inheritance tax raid”.

Instead, it summarised the headline to “Starmer backs farmers over inheritance tax raid”.

The Telegraph did not respond to a request for comment.

When approached for comment, Apple sent Sky News a link to a BBC article on the topic where it said it was working to clarify that summaries were AI-generated.

However, Sky News suggested it still has concerns that the way summaries are presented by Apple AI carry strong implications they have originated from Sky News.

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