No wonder the Labour Party is desperate for a general election now and bitterly disappointed that Rishi Sunak has “bottled it”, in Keir Starmer’s words, and is sticking to his plan not to hold it until the autumn at the earliest.
Sir John Curtice, the UK polling guru, has gone on the record that there is “a 99% chance of Labourforming the next administration”.
What could possibly go wrong for Labour between now and the verdict of the voters?
Curtice’s one-in-a-hundred chance of falling short is comforting for Sir Keir Starmer, but nobody around him is treating victory as a done deal.
No one has slipped up in the way Cherie Blair did in the run-up to the 1997 election when she chatted to ITN’s political editor about “when” not “if” the family would be in Downing Street.
Party workers of all kinds, including the shadow cabinet, regional organisers, special advisers and press officers are being summoned to HQ for “no complacency” pep talks.
Image: Sir Keir’s worries are dwarfed by the problems facing the Tories. Pic: Reuters
Trump’s 2016 win is a warning against complacency
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At the start of the year, Starmer’s campaign manager Morgan McSweeney even produced a slide pack on the theme “polls do not predict the future”.
It listed recent examples from Australia, Germany and Norway, among others, where a party’s sustained lead in opinion polls did not deliver on the day. Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 being Exhibit A.
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The country is three months further on from then and three months closer to the election.
Labour has sustained its remarkable lead of around 18 points for another three months, a gap that has been that wide for two years since Boris Johnson hit the skids.
And any local difficulties for Starmer are dwarfed by continuing troubles for the Tories.
Even as he tries to point to slightly improving economic circumstances, Rishi Sunak has been beset by further resignations.
Nevertheless, the Labour leadership is braced for a “narrowing in the polls”.
Image: Some believe the PM will hold the election on his two-year anniversary. Pic: Reuters
The local elections in England and Wales on 2 May will be a big test of “real votes in real ballot boxes”, which politicians always say they prefer to polls.
In the last set of these elections, the Conservatives were on a high with a vote share calculated at 40%, with Labour on 30%. Those tables need to be more than reversed if Labour is to live up to its advanced billing, with the Tories dropping towards a vote share in the low 20s.
That would mean the Conservatives losing around 500 seats net – more than half of those they currently hold.
Public interest, like voter turnout, tends to be higher in the big mayoral contests.
In London, the government has changed the rules to first past the post to damage the chances of Labour’s Sadiq Khan winning a third term.
Some Conservative campaigners are also playing dirty against him – as shown by a grim online video this week containing shots taken from New York City backed up with questionable presentation of crime statistics.
Khan says this is his hardest election but it seems unlikely that he will be defeated by Susan Hall, the Tory candidate in the capital’s mayoral race.
Image: Khan’s ULEZ policy caused anger but he’ll probably keep his job. Pic: PA
By any measure, it would be a major shock if Labour fails to win back Blackpool South in the parliamentary by-election, which the Conservatives hope to bury in the excitement of local elections day.
It would be a grave blow to them if Andy Street is not re-elected as mayor of the West Midlands. Especially if coupled with defeat in the Tees Valley for Sunak’s controversial poster boy Lord (Ben) Houchen.
Conversely, should Labour underperform and the Tories hang on to some trophy mayors, there is renewed speculation that Sunak might be tempted to go for a general election in June. Not everyone agrees.
One grandee from the John Major years observed “it is very difficult to persuade a prime minister to lose now because he’ll only lose worse later”.
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A summer general election could come about another way if the Conservative local election performance is very bad.
In that scenario, Sunak’s allies expect him to go to the country rather than face a vote of no confidence by Tory MPs.
Labour’s will to win
On the assumption that the government struggles on through the summer, parliament is set to finalise the Rwanda deportation legislation when they return from their Easter break in mid-April.
The Conservatives are hoping for a boost in popularity if a flight gets off soon after that – or at least to reduce the threat from Reform and others on the right.
Sir Keir Starmer is also likely to find himself dealing with fractious elements in his party over the summer. There is no sign of peace in either of the conflict zones of Israel-Gaza or Ukraine-Russia.
Jeremy Corbyn and his backers do not share Starmer’s instincts in either conflict.
There are many pro-Palestinians among Labour’s likely voters. A divisive decision on whether to re-instate Diane Abbott in the party is looming, as is the choice of Labour candidate to stand in Corbyn’s Islington North constituency.
Image: Angela Rayner’s capital gains tax affairs are being investigated by police. Pic: PA
Labour’s will to win is currently as strong as the Conservatives’ is weak. That and, firm discipline from the leadership, should keep the party broadly united.
Some on both left and right will continue to speak up – amplified by the many Tory sympathisers in the media.
In the space of a few days this week, the left-wing polemicist Owen Jones publicised his resignation from Labour and Peter Mandelson fired a warning shot on behalf of business against Rayner’s proposed new deal for workers.
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The likely dates PM will go to polls after rocky conferences
As things stand, the party conference season should go ahead as normal in September.
If they run true to form, any Labour discontent will bubble to the surface in Liverpool, while the Conservatives will try to use Birmingham to launch their general election campaign.
Some expect Sunak to use his leader’s speech to confirm polling day as Thursday 24 October – the day when he will chalk up precisely two years as prime minister.
Two hardened former cabinet ministers told me their working assumption is that it will not be until the 14 or 21 November, after the US election on 5 November. If it is Trump, he is bound to stick his oar into UK politics.
No prime minister, I am assured, would ruin Christmas by holding out until the last legal date in late January 2025 but, in extremis, 19 December this year remains a possibility, in the hope of repeating some of Boris Johnson‘s 2019 differential turnout coup.
Better late than never. It looks as if Sir Keir Starmer still has many months to navigate through until the Curtice-promised land of that general election.
Sir Keir Starmer has dismissed calls for an investigation into his chancellor after she apologised for putting her family home up for rent without obtaining the necessary licence.
The newspaper reported that the chancellor rented her family home in Dulwich when she moved into Number 11 Downing Street, but was unaware she had to obtain a licence to do so.
Some London boroughs require private landlords to obtain a specific kind of licence if they are putting their property up for rent – including Southwark Council, where Ms Reeves’ home is listed.
The newspaper said Ms Reeves had now applied for a licence, but the Conservatives have called for an investigation.
A spokesperson for Ms Reeves said: “Since becoming chancellor, Rachel Reeves has rented out her family home through a lettings agency.
“She had not been made aware of the licensing requirement, but as soon as it was brought to her attention, she took immediate action and has applied for the licence.
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“This was an inadvertent mistake and in the spirit of transparency, she has made the prime minister, the independent adviser on ministerial standards and the parliamentary commissioner for standards aware.”
It is understood that Sir Laurie Magnus, the prime minister’s ethics adviser, has not launched an investigation into Ms Reeves.
Sir Keir said further investigation into the issue was “not necessary” after consulting Sir Laurie.
In a letter to Ms Reeves, he suggested her apology was a “sufficient resolution”.
Daisy Cooper, deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, said the chancellor was adding to the government’s “list of scandals”.
“The chancellor is meant to be delivering growth but the only thing she appears to be growing is the government’s list of scandals,” she said.
“Just weeks before the budget, this risks seriously undermining confidence in this government and its ability to focus on the urgent tasks at hand.”
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Under the proposal, sellers, instead of buyers, would be responsible for paying the tax.
The chancellor is understood to be looking at an annual 1% charge on the amount a property’s value exceeds £2m – a £10,000-a-year levy for homes worth £3m.
Another proposal would see capital gains tax (CGT) charged when someone sells their main home, based on the amount it has increased in value during ownership.
Reports suggest this would only be applied to the most expensive properties, with a possible threshold of £1.5m, which would affect about 120,000 homeowners and higher-rate taxpayers getting CGT bills of nearly £200,000.
Migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu, who was wrongly freed from prison, has claimed in an interview with Sky News that he tried to hand himself in to police a day before he was arrested, but was ignored by officers.
The Home Office said Kebatu, 38, was deported from the UK on Tuesday night.
Speaking to Sky News after he arrived back in Ethiopia on Wednesday morning, Kebatu shared details of his accidental release from HMP Chelmsford on 24 October and the two-day manhunt that followed.
The convicted sex offender was repeatedly questioned on his crimes, but Sky News has chosen not to broadcast this part of the interview.
‘Ignored’ by police
The morning after he was released from prison, Kebatu claimed he tried to hand himself into police, but was ignored.
He said: “I [told] police, look here, police I am wanted man, I am arrested, I will give you my hand, please help where is police station? He ignored me, he drove [off].”
He added that he told the officer his name and that he was mistakenly released from prison.
“I am not unknown. The police station, where is the place? But also I go to police, I will give you my hand please help me where is the police station, take me, I am wanted.
“You know me, or my image, my name is Hadush Kabatu, nationality Ethiopia. Please, I was the mistake release from Chelmsford prison. Please help me.”
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Moment Hadush Kebatu put on deportation flight
Responding to Kebatu’s claims, the Metropolitan Police told Sky News: “The Met is not aware of any evidence to support the claims that Kebatu approached officers on Saturday morning.
“The actions of officers who responded to the sighting of him on Sunday morning show how seriously they were taking the manhunt. Kebatu’s actions on the morning of his arrest were more like those of someone trying to avoid officers, not trying to hand himself in.”
Release from prison
Kebatu was released by HMP Chelmsford a month into his 12-month sentence on the expectation he would be picked up by immigration enforcement.
He said after he was released he waited more than three hours outside the prison, for what he described as someone who was “responsible” for him.
He said: “At that time I am waiting more than three hours… who [is] responsible for me? Where is Home Office, where is [immigration]?
“I was told there was a bus. Also, all the experts, they all ignored me.”
In another Sky News story, a delivery driver who spoke to Kebatu outside Chelmsford prison said he looked “confused”.
The driver said he was approached by the prisoner, who had no idea where he was supposed to go. He said Kebatu waited outside the prison for roughly “an hour and a half” before leaving.
Kebatu said after he left the prison, he asked a passerby where the train station was. He claimed someone helped him, and bought him a train ticket for £18.
Image: Kebatu’s movements the day he was released from prison
The Ethiopian national arrived in the UK on a small boat on 29 June. Days after his arrival, he sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl and a woman in Epping, Essex, where he was staying.
He was found guilty of two counts of sexual assault, one count of attempted sexual assault, one count of inciting a girl to engage in sexual activity and one count of harassment without violence.
When approached by Sky News, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) pointed to a statement made by Justice Secretary David Lammy upon Kebatu’s deportation: “Kebatu has been returned to Ethiopia where he belongs.
“I am grateful to Home Office colleagues for acting swiftly to secure his deportation. I have been clear from the outset that a mistake of this nature is unacceptable, and we must get to the bottom of what happened.
“I have established an independent investigation chaired by Dame Lynne Owens into last Friday’s events to get the public the answers they rightly deserve, and we have introduced the strictest checks ever seen in our prison system to stop similar unacceptable errors in future.”
Essex Police, who arrested Kebatu after the assaults in July, told Sky News: “Our officers responded quickly to the reports of the sexual assaults committed in Epping and arrested Hadush Kebatu on the same day the offences were reported to us.
“Kebatu was then immediately remanded in custody, while officers acted diligently and professionally securing charges and building a case which saw Kebatu convicted following a trial. Protecting women and girls is a priority for Essex Police and our swift and thorough actions highlight our commitment to this.”
Migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu was given £500 to be deported to Ethiopia following his mistaken release from prison, Sky News understands.
The government, who confirmed he was escorted on to a plane at Heathrow Airport on Tuesday night, said he has no right to return to the UK.
But Sky News understands Kebatu was handed a discretionary payment of £500 as part of efforts to avoid a lengthy legal challenge after he made threats to disrupt his removal.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said she “pulled every lever” to deport Kebatu, although it is thought the decision about the payment was made by removal teams, not ministers.
“I am pleased to confirm this vile child sex offender has been deported. Our streets are safer because of it,” she said.
Image: Hadush Kebatu seen on the plane during his deportation flight
Image: Hadush Kebatu was arrested on Sunday after his mistaken release
He was expected to be deported, but instead of being handed over to immigration officials, he was released in error from HMP Chelmsford on Friday.
He spent just under 48 hours at large before he was apprehended.
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2:52
Prisoner releases: ‘A problem on the rise’
The accidental release sparked widespread alarm and questions over how a man whose crimes sparked protests in Epping over the use of asylum hotels was able to be freed.
Ms Mahmood said: “Last week’s blunder should never have happened – and I share the public’s anger that it did.”
Image: Anti-asylum demonstrators in Epping, Essex. Pic: PA
On Sunday, Justice Secretary David Lammy said an exclusive Sky News interview will be used as part of an independent inquiry into the mistaken release.
Speaking to Sky’s national correspondent Tom Parmenter, a delivery driver who spoke to Kebatu at HMP Chelmsford described him as being “confused” as he was being guided to the railway station by prison staff.
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5:44
Local council reads family statement: ‘My family feels massively let down’
The migrant is said to have returned to the prison reception four or five times before leaving the area on a train heading to London.
Mr Lammy, who put Kebatu’s release down to human error, said he has ordered an “urgent review” into the checks that take place when an offender is released from prison, and new safeguards have been added that amount to the “strongest release checks that have ever been in place”.