Keir Starmer must wait longer for his ‘99%’ moment – but Labour desperate to avoid election complacency
No wonder the Labour Party is desperate for a general election now and bitterly disappointed that Rishi Sunak has “bottled it”, in Keir Starmer’s words, and is sticking to his plan not to hold it until the autumn at the earliest.
Sir John Curtice, the UK polling guru, has gone on the record that there is “a 99% chance of Labour forming the next administration”.
What could possibly go wrong for Labour between now and the verdict of the voters?
Curtice’s one-in-a-hundred chance of falling short is comforting for Sir Keir Starmer, but nobody around him is treating victory as a done deal.
No one has slipped up in the way Cherie Blair did in the run-up to the 1997 election when she chatted to ITN’s political editor about “when” not “if” the family would be in Downing Street.
Party workers of all kinds, including the shadow cabinet, regional organisers, special advisers and press officers are being summoned to HQ for “no complacency” pep talks.
Sir Keir’s worries are dwarfed by the problems facing the Tories. Pic: Reuters
Trump’s 2016 win is a warning against complacency
At the start of the year, Starmer’s campaign manager Morgan McSweeney even produced a slide pack on the theme “polls do not predict the future”.
It listed recent examples from Australia, Germany and Norway, among others, where a party’s sustained lead in opinion polls did not deliver on the day. Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 being Exhibit A.
The country is three months further on from then and three months closer to the election.
Labour has sustained its remarkable lead of around 18 points for another three months, a gap that has been that wide for two years since Boris Johnson hit the skids.
And any local difficulties for Starmer are dwarfed by continuing troubles for the Tories.
Even as he tries to point to slightly improving economic circumstances, Rishi Sunak has been beset by further resignations.
Nevertheless, the Labour leadership is braced for a “narrowing in the polls”.
Some believe the PM will hold the election on his two-year anniversary. Pic: Reuters
The local elections in England and Wales on 2 May will be a big test of “real votes in real ballot boxes”, which politicians always say they prefer to polls.
In the last set of these elections, the Conservatives were on a high with a vote share calculated at 40%, with Labour on 30%. Those tables need to be more than reversed if Labour is to live up to its advanced billing, with the Tories dropping towards a vote share in the low 20s.
That would mean the Conservatives losing around 500 seats net – more than half of those they currently hold.
Read more from Sky News:
How Tory MPs can get rid of Sunak – and who could replace him
The possible path to a summer election
Public interest, like voter turnout, tends to be higher in the big mayoral contests.
In London, the government has changed the rules to first past the post to damage the chances of Labour’s Sadiq Khan winning a third term.
Some Conservative campaigners are also playing dirty against him – as shown by a grim online video this week containing shots taken from New York City backed up with questionable presentation of crime statistics.
Khan says this is his hardest election but it seems unlikely that he will be defeated by Susan Hall, the Tory candidate in the capital’s mayoral race.
Khan’s ULEZ policy caused anger but he’ll probably keep his job. Pic: PA
By any measure, it would be a major shock if Labour fails to win back Blackpool South in the parliamentary by-election, which the Conservatives hope to bury in the excitement of local elections day.
The Conservatives have higher hopes elsewhere following the de facto bankruptcy of Birmingham Council.
It would be a grave blow to them if Andy Street is not re-elected as mayor of the West Midlands. Especially if coupled with defeat in the Tees Valley for Sunak’s controversial poster boy Lord (Ben) Houchen.
Conversely, should Labour underperform and the Tories hang on to some trophy mayors, there is renewed speculation that Sunak might be tempted to go for a general election in June. Not everyone agrees.
One grandee from the John Major years observed “it is very difficult to persuade a prime minister to lose now because he’ll only lose worse later”.
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A summer general election could come about another way if the Conservative local election performance is very bad.
In that scenario, Sunak’s allies expect him to go to the country rather than face a vote of no confidence by Tory MPs.
Labour’s will to win
On the assumption that the government struggles on through the summer, parliament is set to finalise the Rwanda deportation legislation when they return from their Easter break in mid-April.
The Conservatives are hoping for a boost in popularity if a flight gets off soon after that – or at least to reduce the threat from Reform and others on the right.
Sir Keir Starmer is also likely to find himself dealing with fractious elements in his party over the summer. There is no sign of peace in either of the conflict zones of Israel-Gaza or Ukraine-Russia.
Jeremy Corbyn and his backers do not share Starmer’s instincts in either conflict.
There are many pro-Palestinians among Labour’s likely voters. A divisive decision on whether to re-instate Diane Abbott in the party is looming, as is the choice of Labour candidate to stand in Corbyn’s Islington North constituency.
Angela Rayner’s capital gains tax affairs are being investigated by police. Pic: PA
Greater Manchester Police have reopened their inquiries into deputy leader Angela Rayner’s alleged non-payment of capital gains tax on her home.
Labour’s will to win is currently as strong as the Conservatives’ is weak. That and, firm discipline from the leadership, should keep the party broadly united.
Some on both left and right will continue to speak up – amplified by the many Tory sympathisers in the media.
In the space of a few days this week, the left-wing polemicist Owen Jones publicised his resignation from Labour and Peter Mandelson fired a warning shot on behalf of business against Rayner’s proposed new deal for workers.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
The likely dates PM will go to polls after rocky conferences
As things stand, the party conference season should go ahead as normal in September.
If they run true to form, any Labour discontent will bubble to the surface in Liverpool, while the Conservatives will try to use Birmingham to launch their general election campaign.
Some expect Sunak to use his leader’s speech to confirm polling day as Thursday 24 October – the day when he will chalk up precisely two years as prime minister.
Two hardened former cabinet ministers told me their working assumption is that it will not be until the 14 or 21 November, after the US election on 5 November. If it is Trump, he is bound to stick his oar into UK politics.
No prime minister, I am assured, would ruin Christmas by holding out until the last legal date in late January 2025 but, in extremis, 19 December this year remains a possibility, in the hope of repeating some of Boris Johnson‘s 2019 differential turnout coup.
Better late than never. It looks as if Sir Keir Starmer still has many months to navigate through until the Curtice-promised land of that general election.
Millionaire Tory donor Malcolm Offord has defected to Reform UK, saying he would be campaigning “tirelessly” to “remove this rotten SNP government”.
Nigel Farage announced the former Conservative life peer’s defection during a rally in the Scottish town of Falkirk, where regular anti-immigration protests have taken place outside the Cladhan Hotel – which is being used to house asylum seekers.
Mr Farage, Reform UK’s leader, said he was “delighted” to welcome Greenock-born Lord Offord to Reform, describing his defection as “a brave and historic act”.
He added: “He will take Reform UK Scotland to a new level.”
During a speech, Lord Offord, who previously donated nearly £150,000 to the Tories, said he would be quitting the Conservative Party and giving up his place in the House of Lords as he prepares to campaign for a seat in Holyrood in May.
The 61-year-old said he wanted to restore Scotland to a “prosperous, happy, healthy country”.
“Scotland needs Reform and Reform is coming to Scotland,” he told the rally.
Read more:
Nigel Farage dismisses school racism claims as ‘banter in a playground’
Farage allegations are deeply shocking – but will they deter voters?
“Today I can announce that I am resigning from the Conservative Party. Today I am joining Reform UK and today I announce my intention to stand for Reform in the Holyrood election in May next year.
“And that means that from today, for the next five months, day and night, I shall be campaigning with all of you tirelessly for two objectives.
“The first objective is to remove this rotten SNP government after 18 years, and the second is to present a positive vision for Scotland inside the UK, to restore Scotland to being a prosperous, proud, healthy and happy country.”
The latest defection comes as Mr Farage finds himself at the centre of allegations of racism dating back to his time in school.
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Claims made against Nigel Farage
Sky News reported on Saturday that a former schoolfriend of Mr Farage claimed he sang antisemitic songs to Jewish schoolmates – and had a “big issue with anyone called Patel”.
Jean-Pierre Lihou, 61, was initially friends with the Reform UK leader when he arrived at Dulwich College in the 1970s, at the time when Mr Farage is accused of saying antisemitic and other racist remarks by more than a dozen pupils.
Mr Farage has said he “never directly racially abused anybody” at Dulwich and said there is a “strong political element” to the allegations coming out 49 years later.
Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice has called the ex-classmates “liars”.
A Reform UK spokesman accused Sky News of “scraping the barrel” and being “desperate to stop us winning the next election”.
The European Commission’s proposal to expand the powers of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is raising concerns about the centralization of the bloc’s licensing regime, despite signaling deeper institutional ambitions for its capital markets structure.
On Thursday, the Commission published a package proposing to “direct supervisory competences” for key pieces of market infrastructure, including crypto-asset service providers (CASPs), trading venues and central counterparties to ESMA, Cointelegraph reported.
Concerningly, the ESMA’s jurisdiction would extend to both the supervision and licensing of all European crypto and financial technology (fintech) firms, potentially leading to slower licensing regimes and hindering startup development, according to Faustine Fleuret, head of public affairs at decentralized lending protocol Morpho.
“I am even more concerned that the proposal makes ESMA responsible for both the authorisation and the supervision of CASPs, not only the supervision,” she told Cointelegraph.
The proposal still requires approval from the European Parliament and the Council, which are currently under negotiation.
If adopted, ESMA’s role in overseeing EU capital markets would more closely resemble the centralized framework of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, a concept first proposed by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde in 2023.
Related: Bank of America backs 1%–4% crypto allocation, opens door to Bitcoin ETFs
EU plan to centralize licensing under ESMA creates crypto and fintech slowdown concerns
The proposal to “centralize” this oversight under a single regulatory body seeks to address the differences in national supervisory practices and uneven licensing regimes, but risks slowing down overall crypto industry development, Elisenda Fabrega, general counsel at Brickken asset tokenization platform, told Cointelegraph.
“Without adequate resources, this mandate may become unmanageable, leading to delays or overly cautious assessments that could disproportionately affect smaller or innovative firms.”
“Ultimately, the effectiveness of this reform will depend less on its legal form and more on its institutional execution,” including ESMA’s operational capacity, independence and cooperation “channels” with member states, she said.
Related: Grayscale Chainlink ETF draws $41M on debut, but not ‘blockbuster’
The broader package aims to boost wealth creation for EU citizens by making the bloc’s capital markets more competitive with those of the US.
The US stock market is worth approximately $62 trillion, or 48% of the global equity market, while the EU stock market’s cumulative value sits around $11 trillion, representing 9% of the global share, according to data from Visual Capitalist.
Magazine: EU’s privacy-killing Chat Control bill delayed — but fight isn’t over
Nigel Farage sang antisemitic songs to Jewish schoolmates – and had a “big issue with anyone called Patel”, a former schoolfriend has claimed.
Jean-Pierre Lihou, 61, was initially friends with the Reform UK leader when he arrived at Dulwich College in the 1970s, at the time when Mr Farage is accused of saying antisemitic and other racist remarks by more than a dozen pupils.
But Mr Lihou, who is half-German and said he went for a couple of sleepovers at Mr Farage’s parent’s house, told Sky News’ Amanda Akass that it “soon become obvious he was not quite the same person I thought he was”.
Warning: This article contains references to antisemitic slurs which readers may find offensive
Another former pupil, Stefan Benarroch, who was in the year below Mr Farage and is Jewish, said that Mr Farage was “not a kid” when he made alleged antisemitic remarks and his behaviour was “unacceptable in any era”.
Mr Farage has said he “never directly racially abused anybody” at Dulwich and said there is a “strong political element” to the allegations coming out 49 years later. Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice has called the ex-classmates “liars”.
A Reform UK spokesman accused Sky News of “scraping the barrel” and were “desperate to stop us winning the next election”.
Jean-Pierre Lihou said he was initially a friend of Nigel Farage
‘People were hurt by it‘
Mr Lihou told Sky News Mr Farage used to direct antisemitic songs at his Jewish friend Peter Ettedgui, who is one of the main former classmates to have spoken out against the Reform leader.
“He used to sing: ‘Gas them all, gas them out, gas them all, into the chambers they crawl’ – and the rest of those horrible words,” he said.
“You think, when somebody is obviously distressed by that, why do you keep doing it? The humour wears off… when you see this, and because I’m German I’m particularly sensitive to anyone making that kind of analogy.”
Mr Lihou also said Mr Farage used to “pass comment on anyone that wasn’t white, particularly Indians”.
He said: “He had a great big issue with anyone called Patel because I think the school had at one point more Patels than Smiths. That seemed to irk him.
“Anybody who wasn’t white, he was likely to have a comment pretty much throughout my school life, especially Jewish people. I think that was the worst thing because you could obviously see that people were hurt by it.”
Stefan Benarroch told Sky News Nigel Farage was ‘not a kid’ when he made antisemitic remarks to classmates
‘He was truly ghastly’
Mr Benarroch, who was also friends with Mr Ettedgui, told Sky News: “His behaviour as a teenager was unacceptable by any standards and in any era. He was truly ghastly at Dulwich College.”
He said he would never have come across Mr Farage “had I not been a Jew”.
“He and his minions – and one of his minions, in particular, was my tormentor at Dulwich – they would spot us coming out of Jewish prayers on a Friday,” he added.
“So his behaviour at 16, 17, 18 – and you are a man at 18, you’re technically an adult – was truly appalling. So we’re not talking about a kid here.”
The property developer said the racism allegations are “not just about Nigel Farage as a teenager, this is also about Nigel Farage as an adult”.
“His behaviour as a teenager was unacceptable by any standards and in any era. He was truly ghastly at Dulwich College,” he added.
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Nigel Farage demands apology from BBC
‘These things don’t leave you’
Mr Benarroch, who is no longer a practising Jew, added: “I was terrified of his bullies, he had these guys hanging around with him who were instructed to have a go at us as these young, nice Jewish boys.
“I don’t recall ever having direct contact with Nigel Farage, but certainly I was very much a witness to his tormenting of others, especially Peter Ettudgui.
“He [Mr Farage] was so extreme, these things don’t leave you, they don’t leave your body, as such.”
Nigel Farage in his school days
On Thursday, Mr Farage launched into a tirade at the BBC after one of its reporters asked about the claims, with the politician reading out a letter he said was from someone he went to school with.
He quoted the unnamed Jewish pupil as saying there was “plenty of macho, tongue-in-cheek schoolboy banter” and said sometimes it “was offensive, but never with malice”.
The problem for Farage is the story is only getting bigger
Allegations about Nigel Farage’s schooldays have hit the headlines since the early days of the Brexit campaign in 2013.
He has always dismissed such claims as ‘politically motivated’ and insisted recently he has ‘never directly racially abused anybody’.
But now with the prospect of Prime Minister Farage looking ever more likely – former classmates have decided now is the moment to speak up about their concerns, almost fifty years later.
The allegations are deeply shocking. Jean-Pierre Lihou told me Farage used to sing a sickening song about the Nazi gas chambers, which began ‘gas them all, gas them out, gas them all, into the chambers they crawl’.
Lihou claims Farage said non-white pupils should be sent home and had a particular issue with the fact that at one point the school had more pupils with the surname ‘Patel’ than ‘Smith’.
Stephan Benarroch meanwhile told my colleague Ali Fortescue he witnessed Farage ‘tormenting others’ and was himself ‘terrified’ by Farage’s ‘gang of bullies’ who he claims ‘were instructed to have a go at us as these young, nice Jewish boys’ on their way back from Friday prayers.
The Guardian – whose investigation last month prompted a renewed focus on the issue – reports that 28 former teachers and pupils have come forward to report witnessing antisemitic or racist behaviour from him.
A group of Holocaust survivors are now calling on Farage to either admit whether he said the words he’s accused of saying, and apologise, or accuse those who said he did of lying.
His political opponents – battered for so long in the polls by Reform UK – are keen to pile on the pressure too. Both Labour and Liberal Democrats have urged him to ‘come clean’ and apologise.
The Tories have also argued that if it’s true, Farage should say sorry, though Kemi Badenoch has certainly been more nuanced in her response than other political rivals, making the point that what most people may say as teenagers is very different from what they would say as adults.
The problem for Farage is that far from going away – the story is only getting bigger.
He’s clearly hugely frustrated by this – as evidenced by the angry tirade he launched against the BBC this week when their reporter asked about the allegations. He argued it’s ‘double standards’ to criticise what he was alleged to have said 49 years ago, at a time when broadcasters were still showing blackface in The Black and White Minstrel Show. He also read out a letter he said had been sent to him by a Jewish contemporary pupil, who described ‘plenty of macho, tongue-in-cheek schoolboy banter’ – which, while sometimes ‘offensive’, was ‘never with malice’.
Reform have hit back against our story in bullish fashion, accusing Sky News of scraping the barrel in a desperate attempt to stop Reform UK winning the next election.
Of course the question of who will win the next election isn’t down to journalists – but voters.
And the jeopardy for Reform is whether these allegations will deter enough potential voters – particularly wavering Tories – to disrupt what has thus far been an unstoppable wave of support.
Read more:
Farage dismisses school racism claims as ‘banter in a playground’
Farage needs to explain ‘racist’ comment allegations, says PM
‘It was not schoolboy banter’
Mr Benarroch rejected Mr Farage’s claim it was just “schoolboy banter” and said he has continued to show the same views, just in a less obvious way.
“You tell that [that it was banter] to the guys, to Peter who had ‘Hitler should have gassed you’ said to him,” he said.
“Peter Ettedgui was tormented by Nigel Farage.
“The point I’m making is, he’s a grown man now. He’s a highly intelligent politician with nuance when it suits him, and so clearly he’s not going around saying ‘Hitler should have gassed you all’, obviously.”
The former Dulwich student said Mr Farage had “kept the most disgraceful company imaginable” in the US during the 2010s on radio and TV shows.
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‘Did you racially abuse fellow pupils?’
He specifically named Rick Wiles, a far-right American conspiracy theorist whose YouTube channel was banned in 2020 after calling Donald Trump’s impeachment a “Jew coup”.
Mr Benarroch, who said he is not part of any political party, said “there is no political motivation” behind his allegations, but accused Reform and Mr Farage of making “a political statement” by calling them liars.
On Thursday, Mr Farage said he had received multiple letters from former pupils in support of him.
He said a letter from a Jewish schoolmate, said: “While there was plenty of macho tongue-in-cheek schoolboy banter, it was humour, and yes, sometimes it was offensive… but never with malice.
“I never heard him [Farage] racially abuse anyone.”
Dulwich College is an all boys private school in south London. Pic: Reuters
A Reform UK spokesman “accused Sky News of scraping the barrel”.
He said: “This ridiculous interview has nothing to do with Nigel Farage himself but apparently someone who knew him at school almost 50 years ago.
“Sky News are desperate to stop us winning the next election.”
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