Tories could be left with ‘fewer than 100’ MPs after next general election, major poll suggests

Published

1 year ago

March 31, 2024

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Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on course to win fewer than 100 seats in the general election, according to a major poll that suggests the party is facing the worst result in its history.

A survey of 15,000 people, used to build a seat-by-seat breakdown, indicated the Tories would win in just 98 constituencies in England and get wiped out in Scotland and Wales.

Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer could be swept into power with a landslide victory of 468 seats, the study for Survation forecast.

The survey put Labour on 45%, with the Tories 19 points behind on 26%.

It gave the Scottish National Party 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.

In 2019, the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.

The prime minister himself is in danger of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond and Northallerton seat in North Yorkshire, as his lead over Labour is just 2.4%.

Several other cabinet ministers, including potential leadership contenders, could also be ousted.

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps would all lose their seats, according to the study for the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group.

Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch looks likely to retain her seat, along with former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick.

But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is another who could be voted out as he has just a 1% advantage over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.

The poll highlights the threat posed to the Conservatives by Reform UK, which is forecast to come second in seven seats by polling 8.5% of the overall vote.

A model of the likely outcome if Richard Tice’s party did not stand, suggested the Tories would win 150 seats – still a crushing defeat, but potentially giving Mr Sunak, or more likely his replacement, a better chance to rebuild.

Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”

The poll of 15,029 adults by Survation, which used a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results, was carried out between 8 and 22 March.

A government source told Sky News: “We’ve seen a lot of polls and predictions.

“The next few months will focus minds on the choice between our plan to grow the economy, create opportunity and build a brighter future and Labour’s lack of a plan that would take us back to square one.”

In a sign of Reform UK’s ambitions, Tory MP Bob Seely revealed he had been approached to defect to the Nigel Farage-linked party.

Writing in the Sun on Sunday, he said: “I said no to Reform because I believe in loyalty. I don’t cut and run, and neither should we.”

A Reform spokesman told the newspaper: “If he wants to turn down the only chance he has of saving his skin, well, that’s up to him.”

Politics

Chancellor insists Labour rebels ‘know the welfare system needs reform’ as they push for change

Published

29 mins ago

May 9, 2025

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Chancellor insists Labour rebels 'know the welfare system needs reform' as they push for change

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has insisted that rebelling Labour MPs “know the welfare system needs reform” as the government faces a growing backlash over planned cuts.

Sir Keir Starmer is under pressure from Labour MPs, with about 40 in the Red Wall – the party’s traditional heartlands in the north of England – warning the prime minister’s welfare plan is “impossible to support” in its current form.

Dozens have thrown their support behind a letter urging the government to “delay” the proposals, which they blasted as “the biggest attack on the welfare state” since Tory austerity.

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Ms Reeves on Friday reiterated her plans for reform, insisting that no-one, including Labour MPs and party members, “thinks that the current welfare system created by the Conservative Party is working today”.

She said: “They know that the system needs reform. We do need to reform how the welfare system works if we’re going to grow our economy.”

But, the chancellor added, if the government is going to lift people out of poverty “the focus has got to be on supporting people into work”.

“Of course if you can’t work, the welfare state must always be there for you, and with this government it will be,” she said.

The reforms, announced ahead of Ms Reeves’s spring statement in March, include cuts to Personal Independence Payments (PIP), one of the main types of disability benefit, and a hike in the universal credit standard allowance.

The government has claimed that changes to welfare will cut the budget by £4.8bn overall.

Separately, Downing Street refused on Friday to deny that Ms Reeves has consulted on potentially overhauling their winter fuel payment policy.

Labour’s unpopular decision to means-test the policy has taken the benefit away from millions of pensioners.

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Ministers have faced pressure from their own backbenchers to rethink the policy in the wake of last week’s local election results, which saw Labour lose the Runcorn by-election and control of Doncaster Council to Reform UK.

Asked if the chancellor has discussed the winter fuel payment in private, the prime minister’s spokesperson said they would not give a running commentary.

Pushed again, Number 10 said a “range” of discussions take place in government – which is not a denial.

However, it is worth noting that when reports emerged earlier this week that Downing Street was reviewing the policy, the government strongly pushed back on that suggestion.

Politics

Taiwan lawmaker calls for Bitcoin reserve at national conference

Published

7 hours ago

May 9, 2025

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Taiwan lawmaker calls for Bitcoin reserve at national conference

Taiwanese lawmaker Ko Ju-Chun has called on the government to consider adding Bitcoin to its national reserves, suggesting it could serve as a hedge against global economic uncertainty.

Ko, a legislator at-large in Taiwan’s legislative body, the Legislative Yuan, took to X on Friday to report that he had advocated Bitcoin (BTC) investment by the Taiwanese government at the National Conference on May 9.

In his remarks, Ko cited Bitcoin’s potential to become a hedge amid global economic risks and urged Taiwan to recognize the cryptocurrency alongside gold and foreign exchange reserves to boost its financial resilience.

Ko’s announcement came shortly after the legislator held talks with Samson Mow, who advocates for Bitcoin adoption by states like El Salvador at his BTC tech firm Jan3.

Taiwan is an export-oriented economy

Ko highlighted that Taiwan is an export-driven economy that has experienced significant fluctuations in its national currency, the New Taiwan dollar, amid global inflation and intensifying geopolitical risks.

“We currently have a gold reserve of 423 metric tons, and our foreign exchange reserves amount to $577 billion, including investments in US Treasury bonds,” the lawmaker stated.

In a scenario of more intense currency volatility or potential regional conflicts, Taiwan may “very likely be unable to ensure the security and liquidity,” Ko continued, adding that Bitcoin could be a great addition to Taiwan’s reserves for several reasons.

Law, Investments, Taiwan, Samson Mow, Policy, Bitcoin Reserve — *Ko Ju-Chun advocated for the adoption of Bitcoin by the Taiwanese government before the Legislative Yuan. Source: Ko Ju-Chun*

“Bitcoin has been operating for over 15 years. It has a fixed total supply, is decentralized, and is resistant to censorship. Many countries are focusing on its hedging attributes. At the same time, in intense situations, it may not face the risk of embargo,” he said.

Bitcoin is not the only solution

Referring to many global initiatives considering Bitcoin adoption as a reserve asset, Ko stressed that he’s not advocating for Bitcoin as the “only solution” to rising economic challenges.

Instead, the legislator suggested adding a “small proportion of Bitcoin” into the diversified assets as tools for sovereign asset allocation and risk hedging, and backup capacity of Taiwan’s financial system.

He previously suggested that Taiwan could allocate a maximum of 5% of its $50 billion reserve to Bitcoin in an X post on May 6.

“When exchange rate risk and regional uncertainty increase, it is time to introduce new tools to construct a more flexible financial strategy framework,” Ko said, adding:

“As former Dean Chen Chong said, Bitcoin is the gun of the digital era. It may also be the gold of the digital era, the silver of the digital era. Or it could be gunpowder. A wise nation will not let weapons be in others’ hands.”

The news comes as Taiwan is emerging as a crypto-friendly jurisdiction, with the Financial Supervisory Commission pushing institutional trials of crypto custody services in late 2024.

Mainland China continues to maintain its hostile stance on cryptocurrency after imposing a ban on multiple crypto activities, including mining, in 2021.

Magazine: Adam Back says Bitcoin price cycle ’10x bigger’ but will still decisively break above $100K

Politics

Germany seizes $38M in crypto from Bybit hack-linked eXch exchange

Published

10 hours ago

May 9, 2025

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Germany seizes M in crypto from Bybit hack-linked eXch exchange

German law enforcement seized 34 million euros ($38 million) in cryptocurrency from eXch, a cryptocurrency platform allegedly used to launder funds stolen after Bybit’s record-breaking $1.4 billion hack.

The seizure, announced on May 9 by Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) and Frankfurt’s main prosecutor’s office, involved multiple crypto assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Litecoin (LTC) and Dash (DASH). The move marks the third-largest crypto confiscation in the BKA’s history.

The authorities also seized eXch’s German server infrastructure with over eight terabytes of data and shut down the platform, the announcement added.

eXch exchanged crypto without AML

In the statement, the BKA described eXch as a “swapping” service that allowed users to exchange various crypto assets without implementing Anti-Money Laundering (AML) measures.

The platform had operated since 2014 and reportedly facilitated about $1.9 billion in crypto transfers, some of which were believed to be of “criminal origin,” including assets laundered during the Bybit hack.

Germany seizes $38M in crypto from Bybit hack-linked eXch exchange — *Example of flow of Bybit exploit funds moving through eXch and bridging back and forth between Ether and Bitcoin. Source: TRM Labs*

“Among other things, a portion of the $1.5 billion stolen from the Bybit crypto exchange, which was hacked on Feb. 21, 2025, is said to have been exchanged via eXch,” the authorities wrote.

Multisig, FixedFloat among laundering cases

According to a post by crypto sleuth ZachXBT, eXch was also involved in laundering millions of funds from other crypto thefts and exploits, including Multisig, FixedFloat and the $243 million Genesis creditor theft.

Those were in addition to “countless phishing drainer services over the past few years with refusal to block addresses and freeze orders,” ZachXBT said.

Germany, AML, Crimes, Hacks, Policy, Bybit — *Source: ZachXBT*

ZachXBT was among the first security analysts to report on eXch’s links to laundering $35 million of crypto assets stolen from Bybit soon after the hack was confirmed.

“Lazarus Group transferred 5K ETH from the Bybit Hack to a new address and began laundering funds via eXch (a centralized mixer) and bridging funds to Bitcoin via Chainflip,” ZachXBT wrote in a Telegram post on Feb. 22.

eXch announced termination of services by May 1

After initially denying involvement in laundering funds from the Bybit hack, eXch eventually announced it would cease operations by May 1 in a Bitcoin Talk post published in mid-April.

“Even though we have been able to operate despite some failed attempts to shut down our infrastructure […], we don’t see any point in operating in a hostile environment where we are the target of SIGINT [Signals Intelligence] simply because some people misinterpret our goals,” it wrote.

Addressing the seizure, senior public prosecutor Benjamin Krause stressed the importance of action against “quick and anonymous opportunities for money laundering for any amount.”

“Crypto swapping is an essential component of the underground economy, used to conceal incriminated funds from illegal activities such as hacking or trading in stolen payment card data, thus making them available to perpetrators,” he said.

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