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Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on course to win fewer than 100 seats in the general election, according to a major poll that suggests the party is facing the worst result in its history.

A survey of 15,000 people, used to build a seat-by-seat breakdown, indicated the Tories would win in just 98 constituencies in England and get wiped out in Scotland and Wales.

Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer could be swept into power with a landslide victory of 468 seats, the study for Survation forecast.

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Levelling up ‘unforgivable’ failure

The survey put Labour on 45%, with the Tories 19 points behind on 26%.

It gave the Scottish National Party 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.

In 2019, the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.

The prime minister himself is in danger of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond and Northallerton seat in North Yorkshire, as his lead over Labour is just 2.4%.

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Several other cabinet ministers, including potential leadership contenders, could also be ousted.

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps would all lose their seats, according to the study for the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group.

Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch looks likely to retain her seat, along with former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick.

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‘Vote for Reform is vote for Labour’

But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is another who could be voted out as he has just a 1% advantage over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.

The poll highlights the threat posed to the Conservatives by Reform UK, which is forecast to come second in seven seats by polling 8.5% of the overall vote.

A model of the likely outcome if Richard Tice’s party did not stand, suggested the Tories would win 150 seats – still a crushing defeat, but potentially giving Mr Sunak, or more likely his replacement, a better chance to rebuild.

Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”

The poll of 15,029 adults by Survation, which used a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results, was carried out between 8 and 22 March.

A government source told Sky News: “We’ve seen a lot of polls and predictions.

“The next few months will focus minds on the choice between our plan to grow the economy, create opportunity and build a brighter future and Labour’s lack of a plan that would take us back to square one.”

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In a sign of Reform UK’s ambitions, Tory MP Bob Seely revealed he had been approached to defect to the Nigel Farage-linked party.

Writing in the Sun on Sunday, he said: “I said no to Reform because I believe in loyalty. I don’t cut and run, and neither should we.”

A Reform spokesman told the newspaper: “If he wants to turn down the only chance he has of saving his skin, well, that’s up to him.”

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Kemi Badenoch calls for ‘long overdue’ national inquiry into UK grooming scandal

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Kemi Badenoch calls for 'long overdue' national inquiry into UK grooming scandal

Kemi Badenoch has called for a national inquiry into the grooming scandal that took place across UK towns and cities, arguing one was “long overdue”.

The Tory leader said 2025 “must be the year that victims get justice” after it emerged that Jess Phillips, the safeguarding minister, had rejected calls from Oldham council for a public inquiry into child exploitation in the town.

In a post on X, the Tory leader wrote: “The time is long overdue for a full national inquiry into the rape gangs scandal.

“Trials have taken place all over the country in recent years but no one in authority has joined the dots. 2025 must be the year that the victims start to get justice.”

Ms Badenoch was joined in her calls by shadow safeguarding minister Alicia Kearns, who has written to Ms Phillips asking her to reverse the government’s decision regarding Oldham.

“We have asked for planned Conservative measures to be enacted, to reverse the Oldham refusal, and for a statutory inquiry into grooming and rape gangs,” she wrote.

Girls as young as 11 were groomed and raped across a number of towns in England – including Oldham, Rochdale, Rotherham and Telford – over a decade ago in a national scandal that was exposed in 2013.

The following year a report by Prof Alexis Jay revealed the scale of exploitation in Rotherham between 1997 and 2013 – where around 1,400 girls were abused – and the failure of police and social services to intervene.

It was followed by the statutory Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA), also chaired by Prof Jay, who found in her final report published in 2022 that children were still being sexually exploited by networks in all parts of England and Wales in the “most degrading and destructive ways”.

The final report recommended that institutions that work with children should be required by law to report suspicions of child sexual abuse.

In a letter to Oldham Council dated October last year, Ms Phillips, the Labour MP for Birmingham Yardley, said that while she recognised the “strength of feeling” over the matter, she believed it was for “Oldham Council alone to decide to commission an inquiry into child sexual exploitation locally, rather than for the government to intervene”.

She added: “I welcome the council’s resolution to do so, as set out in your letter, and to continue its important work with victims and survivors.

“Should the council choose to proceed, I would look forward to the inquiry’s findings and ensuring that any lessons that can be learnt to improve the frontline response are adopted at a local and, where applicable, at a national level.”

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Children ‘still at risk’ of abuse in Rochdale

Ms Phillips has been criticised for her response by Conservative politicians, including former home secretary Suella Braverman, who accused the minister of “letting down victims”.

However, Ms Badenoch faced criticism on social media by Sammy Woodhouse, a survivor of sexual abuse in Rotherham, who said: “I’ve met with your party for 12 years about this when you were in power. I asked for an inquiry into every town and city, none of you cared. Now you need the vote you want to speak on it?”

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Met Police ‘failing to deal with child sexual exploitation’, report says

And Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “Talk is cheap. The Conservatives had 14 years in government to launch an inquiry.

“The establishment has failed the victims of grooming gangs on every level.”

An Oldham Council spokesman said: “Survivors sit at the heart of our work to end child sexual exploitation.

“Whatever happens in terms of future inquiries, we have promised them that their wishes will be paramount, and we will not renege on that pledge.”

A Labour spokesperson said: “Child sexual abuse and exploitation are the most horrendous crimes and the Home Office supports police investigations and independent inquiries to get truth and justice for victims.

“We have supported both the national overarching inquiry into child abuse which reported in 2022, and local independent inquiries and reviews including in Telford, Rotherham and Greater Manchester.

“This government is working urgently to strengthen the law so that these crimes are properly reported and investigated.”

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Members of US Congress backed by crypto PACs to take office on Jan. 3

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Members of US Congress backed by crypto PACs to take office on Jan. 3

Interest groups suggested that a majority of lawmakers in the US House of Representatives would be “pro-crypto” after the 2024 election.

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Crypto criminals who are spending their first New Year’s in prison

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Crypto criminals who are spending their first New Year’s in prison

From Sam Bankman-Fried to the man responsible for hacking Bitfinex, many convicted felons are ringing in 2025 behind bars.

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