Tories could be left with ‘fewer than 100’ MPs after next general election, major poll suggests
Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on course to win fewer than 100 seats in the general election, according to a major poll that suggests the party is facing the worst result in its history.
A survey of 15,000 people, used to build a seat-by-seat breakdown, indicated the Tories would win in just 98 constituencies in England and get wiped out in Scotland and Wales.
Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer could be swept into power with a landslide victory of 468 seats, the study for Survation forecast.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Levelling up ‘unforgivable’ failure
The survey put Labour on 45%, with the Tories 19 points behind on 26%.
It gave the Scottish National Party 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.
In 2019, the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.
The prime minister himself is in danger of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond and Northallerton seat in North Yorkshire, as his lead over Labour is just 2.4%.
Several other cabinet ministers, including potential leadership contenders, could also be ousted.
Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps would all lose their seats, according to the study for the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group.
Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch looks likely to retain her seat, along with former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘Vote for Reform is vote for Labour’
But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is another who could be voted out as he has just a 1% advantage over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.
The poll highlights the threat posed to the Conservatives by Reform UK, which is forecast to come second in seven seats by polling 8.5% of the overall vote.
A model of the likely outcome if Richard Tice’s party did not stand, suggested the Tories would win 150 seats – still a crushing defeat, but potentially giving Mr Sunak, or more likely his replacement, a better chance to rebuild.
Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”
The poll of 15,029 adults by Survation, which used a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results, was carried out between 8 and 22 March.
A government source told Sky News: “We’ve seen a lot of polls and predictions.
“The next few months will focus minds on the choice between our plan to grow the economy, create opportunity and build a brighter future and Labour’s lack of a plan that would take us back to square one.”
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Read more:
Sunak and Starmer’s Easter messages
Sunak’s surprise honours list criticised
Donaldson exit ‘no threat to power-sharing’
In a sign of Reform UK’s ambitions, Tory MP Bob Seely revealed he had been approached to defect to the Nigel Farage-linked party.
Writing in the Sun on Sunday, he said: “I said no to Reform because I believe in loyalty. I don’t cut and run, and neither should we.”
A Reform spokesman told the newspaper: “If he wants to turn down the only chance he has of saving his skin, well, that’s up to him.”
Most RWAs remain isolated and underutilized instead of composable, DeFi-ready building blocks. It’s time to change that.
Thousands of savers face potential losses after a $2.7 million shortfall was discovered at Ziglu, a British crypto fintech that entered special administration.
Politics
Heidi Alexander says ‘fairness’ will be government’s ‘guiding principle’ when it comes to taxes at next budget
Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.
Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.
Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.
Politics Hub: Catch up on the latest
Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.
Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.
“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”
Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.
“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”
Read more:
Reeves won’t rule out tax rises
What is a wealth tax and how would it work?
👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈      
Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”
He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Chris Philp also criticsed the government’s migration deal with France
Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.
Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.
Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.
With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.
The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike