The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war – but does it have the resolve?
Last spring, the mood in Ukraine was upbeat.
The West had rallied to President Zelenskyy’s call for military support to enable a spring offensive, and there was an air of optimism that Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine was to be defeated.
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However, a year on, the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive failed to deliver any significant changes to the frontline, and 2024 started with Russia on the front foot in the Donbas.
Vital supplies of Western military aid to Ukraine are waning, and President Putin will feel emboldened by his recent election result and his growing military advantage over Ukraine.
Although the Ukrainian forces have proven brave and tenacious on the Ukrainian battlefield, Russia has the advantage of “mass”.
Western high-tech precision weapons provided the Ukrainian military with a crucial advantage against the Russian invaders; however, two years into the war, Western war chests have been emptied, and the future is now looking increasingly bleak for President Zelenskyy and his fellow Ukrainians.
Pic: Reuters
Is this the beginning of the end for Ukraine?
High-end warfare consumes huge quantities of ammunition and weapons and requires a rapid mobilisation of the established defence industrial base to provide both the quantity, and quality, of munitions required.
Although the West’s defence industrial base has a significantly greater potential than Russia, the West has been slow to invest.
In stark contrast, Russia’s defence industry is now three times the size it was at the start of the war, and Russia’s oil revenues are sustaining the flow of weapons from both North Korea and Iran.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
Despite robust Western political rhetoric in support of Ukraine, actions speak louder than words, and Putin will feel emboldened by the West’s hesitancy over the level of commitment to combating Russian aggression.
Putin knows well that Russia has a significant military and economic advantage over Ukraine.
However, he also knows that Russia is no match for NATO or a concerted and determined Western campaign of military support for President Zelenskyy.
The question is whether Western support will continue at the level required.
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What is happening in Ukraine?
Putin’s threats resonate – even if he can’t risk NATO war
Putin has consistently threatened escalation in response to Western military aid to Ukraine.
At the start of the war, the West prevaricated about providing anti-tank weapons due to Putin’s threats.
However, the West eventually agreed to send modern tanks and then long-range missiles – such as Storm Shadow – despite a growing tirade of threats from Putin.
But even now, Russian threats of retaliation against Germany are delaying the supply of Taurus missiles.
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Putin knows he cannot afford to precipitate a war with NATO or the West, but his threats resonate with nervous Western leaders.
Ultimately, bullies such as Putin only respect strength and resolve.
If he were to subjugate Ukraine – eventually – his battle-hardened military, backed by a robust and sustainable defence industrial base, would hold a significant military advantage over any of Russia’s neighbours.
Unless the West shifts from appeasement to a robust defence of Ukraine, why would Putin stop?
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West could call Russia’s bluff to stop brutal war
Although there is no quick fix to the weapons crisis, the West does have other options available.
President Macron has consistently argued that the West should not rule out putting Western “boots on the ground” in Ukraine.
This is not just about Western military personnel – such a move would also enable the West to deploy modern weapons that cannot be gifted to Ukraine for security reasons.
Also, the Russian air force has struggled to prevail over a significantly smaller and less capable Ukrainian air force, losing over 10% of its pre-war fighter jets.
If the West was to impose a No-Fly Zone over all or part of Ukraine, that would present a huge threat to the Russian military advance, and significantly tip the balance of power Ukraine’s way.
President Putin would recognise the significance of such a move and would increase his threatening rhetoric, but he knows that it is Russia that is responsible for the war and for invading a vulnerable neighbour.
Pic: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Reuters
Russia cannot risk an escalation – its military has been decimated by the war to date, and nuclear weapons are only a credible option if Russia itself is threatened.
Ultimately, this is all about the resolve and determination of Western political leaders.
Nobody wants to get embroiled in a brutal war, but history suggests that aggressors such as Putin will not desist unless they are robustly challenged.
The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine, but does it have the political resolve?
At least 36 people have been killed after a fire engulfed several buildings at a high-rise residential complex in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong leader John Lee said another 279 people were reported missing. He said 29 people remained in hospital.
About 900 people have been evacuated to temporary shelters after the blaze – Hong Kong’s deadliest fire in years – broke out at the Wang Fuk Court housing complex in the city’s Tai Po district.
Three men have since been arrested on suspicion of manslaughter, broadcaster RTHK reported.
Pics: AP
Meanwhile, fire chiefs said the high temperatures were making it challenging for crews to mount rescue operations.
Mr Lee said the fire was “coming under control” shortly after midnight.
The blaze was upgraded to a level 5 alarm, the highest level of severity, as night fell.
Pics: AP
The dead included one firefighter, officials said earlier.
A number of other firefighters were said to have been hurt while trying to tackle the flames as they ripped through the 31-storey towers.
Pic: Reuters
Pic: AP
Records show the Wang Fuk Court site consists of eight blocks, with almost 2,000 apartments housing around 4,800 residents, including many elderly people. It was built in the 1980s and has recently been undergoing a major renovation.
Pic: Reuters
Pic: Reuters
The fire, which broke out at 2.51pm local time, had spread on bamboo scaffolding and construction netting set up around the exterior of the complex.
It was not known how the fire started, but officials said it began on the external scaffolding of one of the buildings before spreading inside and to nearby buildings, likely aided by windy conditions.
Pic: Reuters
Pic: Reuters
Flames and smoke were still pouring out of many windows as night fell.
Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed condolences to the firefighter who died, and extended his sympathies to the families of the victims, according to state broadcaster CCTV. He also urged an “all-out” effort to minimise casualties and losses.
The UK’s foreign secretary described the fire as “truly devastating and deeply depressing”. Yvette Cooper said: “The UK sends heartfelt condolences to all the families affected and to the people of Hong Kong.”
Tai Po is in the northern part of Hong Kong, and close to the border with the mainland Chinese city of Shenzhen.
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Bamboo scaffolding is a common sight in Hong Kong at building construction and renovation projects.
However, the government said earlier this year it would start phasing it out for public projects because of safety concerns.
The blaze is the deadliest fire in Hong Kong since the deaths of 41 people in a commercial building in Kowloon in November 1996.
That fire was later found to have been caused by welding during internal renovations, with a public inquiry yielding sweeping updates to building standards and fire safety regulations in the city’s high-rise offices, shops and homes.
Two military personnel who were shot near the White House in Washington DC have died.
A suspect has been taken into custody and the area secured, police said.
The White House was placed into lockdown, while US President Donald Trump is away in Florida.
Washington DC shooting latest updates
Pics: AP
Mr Trump initially posted on his Truth Social platform to say the two National Guardsmen had been “critically wounded”, adding that the “animal” that shot them “is also severely wounded, but regardless, will pay a very steep price”.
But West Virginia’s governor said both victims were members of his state’s National Guard and had died from their injuries.
Patrick Morrisey added: “These brave West Virginians lost their lives in the service of their country. … Our entire state grieves with their families, their loved ones, and the Guard community. West Virginia will never forget their service or their sacrifice, and we will demand full accountability for this horrific act.”
Pic: AP
Police tape cordoned off the scene, while agents from the US Secret Service and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives were on the scene, as National Guard troops stood sentry nearby.
Emergency personnel cordon off an area near where National Guard soldiers were shot. Pics: AP
The Joint DC Task Force confirmed it was responding to an incident in the vicinity of the White House.
The DC Police Department posted on X: “Critical Incident: MPD is on the scene of a shooting at 17th and I Street, NW. Please avoid the area.”
In an update, the force said: “The scene is secured. One suspect is in custody.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “The White House is aware and actively monitoring this tragic situation.
“The president has been briefed.”
Mr Trump was at his resort in Palm Beach ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, while US vice president JD Vance was in Kentucky.
Flights arriving at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport were temporarily halted due to its proximity to the scene of the shooting, the US Federal Aviation Administration said.
Hundreds of National Guard members have been patrolling the nation’s capital after Mr Trump issued an emergency order in August, which federalised the local police force and sent in the guard from eight states and the District of Columbia.
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