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Last spring, the mood in Ukraine was upbeat.

The West had rallied to President Zelenskyy’s call for military support to enable a spring offensive, and there was an air of optimism that Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine was to be defeated.

Russia-Ukraine latest: Putin signs conscription decree

However, a year on, the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive failed to deliver any significant changes to the frontline, and 2024 started with Russia on the front foot in the Donbas.

Vital supplies of Western military aid to Ukraine are waning, and President Putin will feel emboldened by his recent election result and his growing military advantage over Ukraine.

Although the Ukrainian forces have proven brave and tenacious on the Ukrainian battlefield, Russia has the advantage of “mass”.

Western high-tech precision weapons provided the Ukrainian military with a crucial advantage against the Russian invaders; however, two years into the war, Western war chests have been emptied, and the future is now looking increasingly bleak for President Zelenskyy and his fellow Ukrainians.

A new recruit of the 1st Da Vinci Wolves Separate Mechanized Battalion attends a military exercise in Ukriane
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

Is this the beginning of the end for Ukraine?

High-end warfare consumes huge quantities of ammunition and weapons and requires a rapid mobilisation of the established defence industrial base to provide both the quantity, and quality, of munitions required.

Although the West’s defence industrial base has a significantly greater potential than Russia, the West has been slow to invest.

In stark contrast, Russia’s defence industry is now three times the size it was at the start of the war, and Russia’s oil revenues are sustaining the flow of weapons from both North Korea and Iran.

Vladimir Putin attends a meeting of the collegium of the Prosecutor General's office in Moscow, Russia,
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
Image:
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters

Despite robust Western political rhetoric in support of Ukraine, actions speak louder than words, and Putin will feel emboldened by the West’s hesitancy over the level of commitment to combating Russian aggression.

Putin knows well that Russia has a significant military and economic advantage over Ukraine.

However, he also knows that Russia is no match for NATO or a concerted and determined Western campaign of military support for President Zelenskyy.

The question is whether Western support will continue at the level required.

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What is happening in Ukraine?

Putin’s threats resonate – even if he can’t risk NATO war

Putin has consistently threatened escalation in response to Western military aid to Ukraine.

At the start of the war, the West prevaricated about providing anti-tank weapons due to Putin’s threats.

However, the West eventually agreed to send modern tanks and then long-range missiles – such as Storm Shadow – despite a growing tirade of threats from Putin.

But even now, Russian threats of retaliation against Germany are delaying the supply of Taurus missiles.

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Putin knows he cannot afford to precipitate a war with NATO or the West, but his threats resonate with nervous Western leaders.

Ultimately, bullies such as Putin only respect strength and resolve.

If he were to subjugate Ukraine – eventually – his battle-hardened military, backed by a robust and sustainable defence industrial base, would hold a significant military advantage over any of Russia’s neighbours.

Unless the West shifts from appeasement to a robust defence of Ukraine, why would Putin stop?

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West could call Russia’s bluff to stop brutal war

Although there is no quick fix to the weapons crisis, the West does have other options available.

President Macron has consistently argued that the West should not rule out putting Western “boots on the ground” in Ukraine.

This is not just about Western military personnel – such a move would also enable the West to deploy modern weapons that cannot be gifted to Ukraine for security reasons.

Also, the Russian air force has struggled to prevail over a significantly smaller and less capable Ukrainian air force, losing over 10% of its pre-war fighter jets.

If the West was to impose a No-Fly Zone over all or part of Ukraine, that would present a huge threat to the Russian military advance, and significantly tip the balance of power Ukraine’s way.

President Putin would recognise the significance of such a move and would increase his threatening rhetoric, but he knows that it is Russia that is responsible for the war and for invading a vulnerable neighbour.

A Ukrainian serviceman of the 126th Separate Territorial Defence Brigade prepares a shell for a D-30 howitzer in Kherson. 
Pic: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Reuters
Image:
Pic: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Reuters

Russia cannot risk an escalation – its military has been decimated by the war to date, and nuclear weapons are only a credible option if Russia itself is threatened.

Ultimately, this is all about the resolve and determination of Western political leaders.

Nobody wants to get embroiled in a brutal war, but history suggests that aggressors such as Putin will not desist unless they are robustly challenged.

The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine, but does it have the political resolve?

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Climate-vulnerable islands storm out of COP29 negotiation room in row over funding

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Climate-vulnerable islands storm out of COP29 negotiation room in row over funding

Representatives of dozens of climate vulnerable islands and African nations have stormed out of high-stakes negotiations over a climate funding goal.

Patience is wearing thin and negotiations have boiled over at the COP29 climate talks in Azerbaijan, which were due to finish yesterday but are now well into overtime.

After two weeks of talks, the more than 190 countries gathered in the capital Baku are still trying to agree a new financial settlement to channel money to poorer countries to both curb and adapt to climate change.

Talks have now run well into overtime at COP29, but a deal now feels much more precarious.

The least developed countries like Mozambique and low-lying island nations like Samoa say their calls for a portion of the fund to be allocated to them have been ignored.

Samoa’s minister of natural resources and environment Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster is one of the representatives who walked out.

“We are here to negotiate but we have walked out… at the moment we don’t feel we are being heard in there,” he said on behalf of more than 40 small island and developing states, whose shorelines are being lost to rising sea levels.

More on Cop29

Shortly after he made a veiled threat of leaving COP29 altogether, saying: “We want nothing more than to continue to engage, but the process must be INCLUSIVE.

“If this cannot be the case, it becomes very difficult for us to continue our involvement here at COP29.”

Evans Njewa, who chairs a group of more than 40 least developed countries, said the current deal is “unacceptable for us. We need to speak to other developing countries and decide what to do.”

The last official draft on Friday pledged $250bn a year annually by 2035.

This is more than double the previous goal of $100bn set 15 years ago, but nowhere near the annual $1.3trn that experts say is needed.

Sky News understands some developed countries like the UK were this morning willing to bump up the goal to $300bn.

Developing countries are angry not just about the finance negotiations, but also on how to make progress on a pledge from last year to “transition away from fossil fuels”.

A group of oil and producing countries, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, have tried to dilute that language, while the UK and island state are among those that have fought to keep it in.

Mr Schuster said all things being negotiated contain a “deplorable lack of substance”.

He added: “We need to see progress and follow up on the transition away from fossil fuels that we agreed last year. We have been asked to forget all about that at this COP, as though we are not in a critical decade and as though the 1.5C limit is not in peril.”

“We need to be shown the regard which our dire circumstances necessitate.”

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At least 11 killed in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities say

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At least 11 killed in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities say

At least 11 people have been killed and 63 injured in an Israeli strike on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities have said.

Lebanon‘s health ministry said the death toll could rise as emergency workers dug through the rubble looking for survivors. DNA tests are being used to identify the victims, the ministry added.

State-run National News Agency (NNA) said the attack “completely destroyed” an eight-storey residential building in the Basta neighbourhood early on Saturday.

Footage broadcast by Lebanon’s Al Jadeed station also showed at least one destroyed building and several others badly damaged around it.

The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut, where four people were killed in an Israeli airstrike
Image:
The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut, where four people were killed in an Israeli airstrike

Map of Lebanon and Israel

The Israeli military did not warn residents to evacuate before the attack – the fourth targeting the centre this week.

At least four bombs were dropped in the attack, security sources told Reuters news agency.

The blasts happened at about 4am (2am UK time).

A seperate drone strike in the southern port cuty of Tyre this morning killed one person and injured another, according to the NNA.

The blasts came after a day of bombardment of Beirut’s southern suburbs and Tyre. The Israeli military had issued evacuation notices prior to those strikes.

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

Israel has killed several Hezbollah leaders in air strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs.

Heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is ongoing in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces push deeper into the country since launching a major offensive in September.

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US envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region this week to try to end more than 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ignited last October by the war in Gaza.

Mr Hochstein indicated progress had been made after meetings in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, before going to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defence minister Israel Katz.

According to the Lebanese health ministry, Israel has killed more than 3,500 people in Lebanon and wounded more than 15,000.

It has displaced about 1.2 million people – a quarter of Lebanon’s population – while Israel says about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.

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Vladimir Putin vows to increase production of Russia’s ‘unstoppable’ missile – as NATO and Ukraine to hold talks

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Vladimir Putin vows to increase production of Russia's 'unstoppable' missile - as NATO and Ukraine to hold talks

President Vladimir Putin has said Russia will ramp up the production of a new, hypersonic ballistic missile.

In a nationally-televised speech, Mr Putin said the intermediate-range Oreshnik missile was used in an attack on Ukrainian city Dnipro in retaliation for Ukraine’s use of US and British missiles capable of striking deeper into Russian territory.

Referring to the Oreshnik, the Russian president said: “No one in the world has such weapons.

“Sooner or later other leading countries will also get them. We are aware that they are under development.”

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Putin’s warning to the West

Russia war latest: Long-awaited US air defences arrive in Ukraine

He added: “We have this system now. And this is important.”

Detailing the missile’s alleged capabilities, Mr Putin claimed it is so powerful that using several fitted with conventional warheads in one attack could be as devastating as a strike with nuclear weapons.

More on Russia

General Sergei Karakayev, head of Russia’s strategic missile forces, said the Oreshnik could reach targets across Europe and be fitted with either nuclear or conventional warheads – while Mr Putin alleged Western air defence systems will not be able to stop the missiles.

Mr Putin said of the Oreshnik: “There is no countermeasure to such a missile, no means of intercepting it, in the world today. And I will emphasise once again that we will continue testing this newest system. It is necessary to establish serial production.”

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Testing the Oreshnik will happen “in combat, depending on the situation and the character of security threats created for Russia“, the president added, stating there is “a stockpile of such systems ready for use”.

NATO and Ukraine are expected to hold emergency talks on Tuesday.

Meanwhile Ukraine’s parliament cancelled a session as security was tightened following the strike on Dnipro, a central city with a population of around one million. No fatalities were reported.

EU leaders condemn Russia’s ‘heinous attacks’

Numerous EU leaders have addressed Russia’s escalation of the conflict with Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk saying the war is “entering a decisive phase [and] taking on very dramatic dimensions”.

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Russia’s new missile – what does it mean?

Speaking in Kyiv, Czech foreign minister Jan Lipavsky called Moscow’s strike an “escalatory step and an attempt of the Russian dictator to scare the population of Ukraine and to scare the population of Europe”.

At a news conference, Mr Lipavsky gave his full support for delivering the additional air defence systems needed to protect Ukrainian civilians from the “heinous attacks”.

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