The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war – but does it have the resolve?
Last spring, the mood in Ukraine was upbeat.
The West had rallied to President Zelenskyy’s call for military support to enable a spring offensive, and there was an air of optimism that Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine was to be defeated.
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However, a year on, the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive failed to deliver any significant changes to the frontline, and 2024 started with Russia on the front foot in the Donbas.
Vital supplies of Western military aid to Ukraine are waning, and President Putin will feel emboldened by his recent election result and his growing military advantage over Ukraine.
Although the Ukrainian forces have proven brave and tenacious on the Ukrainian battlefield, Russia has the advantage of “mass”.
Western high-tech precision weapons provided the Ukrainian military with a crucial advantage against the Russian invaders; however, two years into the war, Western war chests have been emptied, and the future is now looking increasingly bleak for President Zelenskyy and his fellow Ukrainians.
Pic: Reuters
Is this the beginning of the end for Ukraine?
High-end warfare consumes huge quantities of ammunition and weapons and requires a rapid mobilisation of the established defence industrial base to provide both the quantity, and quality, of munitions required.
Although the West’s defence industrial base has a significantly greater potential than Russia, the West has been slow to invest.
In stark contrast, Russia’s defence industry is now three times the size it was at the start of the war, and Russia’s oil revenues are sustaining the flow of weapons from both North Korea and Iran.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
Despite robust Western political rhetoric in support of Ukraine, actions speak louder than words, and Putin will feel emboldened by the West’s hesitancy over the level of commitment to combating Russian aggression.
Putin knows well that Russia has a significant military and economic advantage over Ukraine.
However, he also knows that Russia is no match for NATO or a concerted and determined Western campaign of military support for President Zelenskyy.
The question is whether Western support will continue at the level required.
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What is happening in Ukraine?
Putin’s threats resonate – even if he can’t risk NATO war
Putin has consistently threatened escalation in response to Western military aid to Ukraine.
At the start of the war, the West prevaricated about providing anti-tank weapons due to Putin’s threats.
However, the West eventually agreed to send modern tanks and then long-range missiles – such as Storm Shadow – despite a growing tirade of threats from Putin.
But even now, Russian threats of retaliation against Germany are delaying the supply of Taurus missiles.
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Putin knows he cannot afford to precipitate a war with NATO or the West, but his threats resonate with nervous Western leaders.
Ultimately, bullies such as Putin only respect strength and resolve.
If he were to subjugate Ukraine – eventually – his battle-hardened military, backed by a robust and sustainable defence industrial base, would hold a significant military advantage over any of Russia’s neighbours.
Unless the West shifts from appeasement to a robust defence of Ukraine, why would Putin stop?
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West could call Russia’s bluff to stop brutal war
Although there is no quick fix to the weapons crisis, the West does have other options available.
President Macron has consistently argued that the West should not rule out putting Western “boots on the ground” in Ukraine.
This is not just about Western military personnel – such a move would also enable the West to deploy modern weapons that cannot be gifted to Ukraine for security reasons.
Also, the Russian air force has struggled to prevail over a significantly smaller and less capable Ukrainian air force, losing over 10% of its pre-war fighter jets.
If the West was to impose a No-Fly Zone over all or part of Ukraine, that would present a huge threat to the Russian military advance, and significantly tip the balance of power Ukraine’s way.
President Putin would recognise the significance of such a move and would increase his threatening rhetoric, but he knows that it is Russia that is responsible for the war and for invading a vulnerable neighbour.
Pic: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Reuters
Russia cannot risk an escalation – its military has been decimated by the war to date, and nuclear weapons are only a credible option if Russia itself is threatened.
Ultimately, this is all about the resolve and determination of Western political leaders.
Nobody wants to get embroiled in a brutal war, but history suggests that aggressors such as Putin will not desist unless they are robustly challenged.
The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine, but does it have the political resolve?
A police officer has been injured after a night of violent protests outside an asylum hotel in Dublin – with six arrests made.
Bricks were thrown and fireworks were discharged outside the Citywest Hotel – with glass bottles used as missiles and a police van set on fire.
A Garda helicopter was also targeted with lasers, and the police service says some of those on the streets were seen carrying garden forks.
Pic: PA
Pic: PA
Commissioner Justin Kelly added: “This was obviously not a peaceful protest. The actions this evening can only be described as thuggery. This was a mob intent on violence.
“We will now begin the process of identifying those who committed crimes and we will bring those involved in this violence to justice.”
It is the second night of demonstrations after an alleged sexual assault in its vicinity in the early hours of Monday morning.
Some of the crowd threw stones and other missiles at the public order officers as they moved the protesters back – and water cannon was deployed at the scene.
A line of officers was preventing the protesters from approaching the hotel.
Police officers block protesters outside the hotel. Pic: PA
‘Those involved will be brought to justice’
Ireland’s premier, Taoiseach Micheál Martin, paid tribute to the officers who were on the frontline of the protests.
“There can be no justification for the vile abuse against them, or the attempted assaults and attacks on members of the force that will shock all right-thinking people,” he said.
Justice minister Jim O’Callaghan said those involved in the violence will be brought to justice.
“The scenes of public disorder we have witnessed at Citywest must be condemned,” he said.
“People threw missiles at Gardai, threw fireworks at them and set a Garda vehicle on fire.
“This is unacceptable and will result in a forceful response from the Gardai.
“Those involved will be brought to justice.”
‘No excuse’ for violence
The minister said a man had been arrested and had appeared in court in relation to the alleged assault in the vicinity of the hotel.
He added: “While I am not in a position to comment any further on this criminal investigation, I have been advised that there is no ongoing threat to public safety in the area.”
He said attacks on officers would “not be tolerated”, adding: “Peaceful protest is a cornerstone of our democracy. Violence is not.
“There is no excuse for the scenes we have witnessed.”
The demonstration on Monday night passed without a significant incident.
It comes two years after anti-immigrant demonstrators triggered a major riot in the centre of Dublin after three young children were stabbed.
A police van has been set on fire and missiles have been thrown at officers as protesters gathered outside a hotel used to house asylum seekers in Dublin.
It is the second night of demonstrations outside the Citywest Hotel after an alleged sexual assault in its vicinity in the early hours of Monday morning.
A large crowd has gathered in the area and members of the Garda’s public order unit have been deployed.
Footage from the scene showed a Garda vehicle on fire as well as several protesters displaying Irish flags.
Many protesters carried Republic of Ireland flags
Some of the crowd threw stones and other missiles at the public order officers as they moved the protesters back.
A Garda helicopter hovered overhead and a water cannon was deployed on the scene.
Ireland’s justice minister, Jim O’Callaghan, said those involved will be brought to justice.
“The scenes of public disorder we have witnessed at Citywest tonight must be condemned,” he said.
“People threw missiles at Gardai, threw fireworks at them and set a Garda vehicle on fire.
“This is unacceptable and will result in a forceful response from the Gardai.
“Those involved will be brought to justice.”
The minister said a man had been arrested and had appeared in court in relation to the alleged assault in the vicinity of the hotel.
He added: “While I am not in a position to comment any further on this criminal investigation, I have been advised that there is no ongoing threat to public safety in the area.
He said attacks on gardai will “not be tolerated”, adding: “Peaceful protest is a cornerstone of our democracy. Violence is not.
“There is no excuse for the scenes we have witnessed tonight.”
It was the second night of protest outside the hotel, which is being used as state accommodation for people seeking international protection. The demonstration on Monday night passed without a significant incident.
It comes two years after anti-immigrant demonstrators triggered a major riot in the centre of Dublin after three young children were stabbed.
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There are no plans for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to meet in person in the near future, according to a White House official.
The presidents last week agreed to meet in Budapest after a phone call Mr Trump called “extremely frank and trustful”.
The US leader suggested it was possible it could happen within a fortnight, though no date was set.
However, it appears that’s now off the table – and there are fears the meeting could be shelved altogether due to Russia‘s rigid stance on the Ukraine war.
The White House official, speaking to Sky’s US partner network NBC, said secretary of state Marco Rubio and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov had spoken on Tuesday.
The call was described as “productive” but the official added there was no plan for the presidents to meet “in the immediate future”.
The last Trump-Putin meeting was in Alaska in August, but it ended without any meaningful progress towards a ceasefire.
The Budapest plan was announced shortly before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to Washington last Friday to try to get approval for long-range Tomahawk missiles.
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Why Tomahawks are off the table
Mr Zelenskyy accused the Russian leader of acting out of fear Ukraine could get the green light and the ability to hit targets far deeper into Russia.
In his nightly address on Tuesday, he said Russia “almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy” after it became clear Mr Trump had backed away from any decision on the Tomahawks.
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Professor Michael Clarke answers your questions on the Ukraine war.
Two US officials told Reuters that plans for the Budapest meeting had stalled over Russia’s insistence any peace deal must give it control of all of the Donbas region.
Those terms are said to have been reiterated over the weekend in a private communique known as a “no paper”.
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The Kremlin’s refusal to budge effectively rejects Mr Trump’s latest assessment that the frontlines should be frozen as they are.
The president shifted position last week after previously telling the UN General Assembly that Ukraine could win back all the land it has lost.
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Ukraine and European nations issued a joint statement on Tuesday insisting “international borders must not be changed by force” and accusing Russia of “stalling tactics”.
But, in an apparent effort to keep the US leader onside, it added: “We strongly support President Trump’s position that the fighting should stop immediately, and that the current line of contact should be the starting point of negotiations.”
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Trump: ‘We can end this war quickly’
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov gave the impression his country was in no rush to arrange another Trump-Putin meeting, saying on Tuesday “preparation is needed, serious preparation”.
Such talk is likely to increase concerns Russia does not want to stop fighting and is “playing” President Trump – all while continuing to launch drone barrages at Ukrainian cities.
Russia currently holds about a fifth of Ukraine after its invasion in February in 2022. It also annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014.
Meanwhile, NATO’s secretary general Mark Rutte is travelling to Washington to meet with President Trump on Wednesday.
He will “discuss various aspects related to NATO’s support to Ukraine and to the US-led efforts towards lasting peace”, an official for the alliance said.
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