The West had rallied to President Zelenskyy’s call for military support to enable a spring offensive, and there was an air of optimism that Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine was to be defeated.
However, a year on, the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive failed to deliver any significant changes to the frontline, and 2024 started with Russia on the front foot in the Donbas.
Vital supplies of Western military aid to Ukraine are waning, and President Putin will feel emboldened by his recent election result and his growing military advantage over Ukraine.
Although the Ukrainian forces have proven brave and tenacious on the Ukrainian battlefield, Russia has the advantage of “mass”.
Western high-tech precision weapons provided the Ukrainian military with a crucial advantage against the Russian invaders; however, two years into the war, Western war chests have been emptied, and the future is now looking increasingly bleak for President Zelenskyy and his fellow Ukrainians.
Image: Pic: Reuters
Is this the beginning of the end for Ukraine?
High-end warfare consumes huge quantities of ammunition and weapons and requires a rapid mobilisation of the established defence industrial base to provide both the quantity, and quality, of munitions required.
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Although the West’s defence industrial base has a significantly greater potential than Russia, the West has been slow to invest.
In stark contrast, Russia’s defence industry is now three times the size it was at the start of the war, and Russia’s oil revenues are sustaining the flow of weapons from both North Korea and Iran.
Image: Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
Despite robust Western political rhetoric in support of Ukraine, actions speak louder than words, and Putin will feel emboldened by the West’s hesitancy over the level of commitment to combating Russian aggression.
Putin knows well that Russia has a significant military and economic advantage over Ukraine.
However, he also knows that Russia is no match for NATO or a concerted and determined Western campaign of military support for President Zelenskyy.
The question is whether Western support will continue at the level required.
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4:16
What is happening in Ukraine?
Putin’s threats resonate – even if he can’t risk NATO war
Putin has consistently threatened escalation in response to Western military aid to Ukraine.
At the start of the war, the West prevaricated about providing anti-tank weapons due to Putin’s threats.
However, the West eventually agreed to send modern tanks and then long-range missiles – such as Storm Shadow – despite a growing tirade of threats from Putin.
But even now, Russian threats of retaliation against Germany are delaying the supply of Taurus missiles.
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Putin knows he cannot afford to precipitate a war with NATO or the West, but his threats resonate with nervous Western leaders.
Ultimately, bullies such as Putin only respect strength and resolve.
If he were to subjugate Ukraine – eventually – his battle-hardened military, backed by a robust and sustainable defence industrial base, would hold a significant military advantage over any of Russia’s neighbours.
Unless the West shifts from appeasement to a robust defence of Ukraine, why would Putin stop?
This is not just about Western military personnel – such a move would also enable the West to deploy modern weapons that cannot be gifted to Ukraine for security reasons.
Also, the Russian air force has struggled to prevail over a significantly smaller and less capable Ukrainian air force, losing over 10% of its pre-war fighter jets.
If the West was to impose a No-Fly Zone over all or part of Ukraine, that would present a huge threat to the Russian military advance, and significantly tip the balance of power Ukraine’s way.
President Putin would recognise the significance of such a move and would increase his threatening rhetoric, but he knows that it is Russia that is responsible for the war and for invading a vulnerable neighbour.
Image: Pic: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Reuters
Russia cannot risk an escalation – its military has been decimated by the war to date, and nuclear weapons are only a credible option if Russia itself is threatened.
Ultimately, this is all about the resolve and determination of Western political leaders.
Nobody wants to get embroiled in a brutal war, but history suggests that aggressors such as Putin will not desist unless they are robustly challenged.
The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine, but does it have the political resolve?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is ready to accept a ceasefire deal – as the US says it has immediately resumed intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine.
In a post on Telegram after US and Ukrainian officials met in Saudi Arabia, Mr Zelenskyy said “the American side understands our arguments” and “accepts our proposals” – and that Kyiv “accepts” the US proposal of a full 30-day ceasefire with Russia.
“I want to thank President Trump for the constructiveness of the conversation between our teams,” he said.
“Today, in the conversation, the American side proposed to take the first step immediately and try to establish a full ceasefire for 30 days, not only concerning rockets, drones, and bombs, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line.
“Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, and we are ready to take this step.”
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he is ready to accept the US’ 30-day ceasefire proposal. Pic: Saudi Press Agency / Reuters
‘Ukraine is ready for peace’
The Ukrainian president then said the US “must convince Russia to do this” and that “if the Russians agree – that’s when the silence will work”.
He added: “An important element of today’s conversation is America’s readiness to restore defensive assistance to Ukraine, as well as intelligence support.
“Ukraine is ready for peace. Russia must show whether it is ready to stop the war or continue it.
“The time has come for the full truth. I thank everyone who helps Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, in a joint statement with Kyiv following nine-hour-long talks in Jeddah, the US State Department said it will immediately lift the pause on intelligence-sharing and military aid.
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4:58
Analysis: A pause in aid for Ukraine
‘Ball is now in Russia’s court’
Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, also told reporters that “the ball is now in Russia’s court” after meeting with the Ukrainian delegation.
After the positive talks, Mr Rubio said “we’re going to take the offer” to Russia, adding: “We’re going to tell them this is what’s on the table, Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking, and now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no.
“I hope they’re going to say yes, and if they do then I think we made great progress.”
Image: ‘The ball is now in Russia’s court’ to agree to a ceasefire, Marco Rubio (R) said. Pic: Reuters
He then said that while no deadline has been set, he hopes a deal can be reached “as soon as possible” and that “this is serious stuff, this is not Mean Girls, this is not some episode of some television show”.
“The number one goodwill gesture we could see from the Russians is to see the Ukrainian offer and reciprocate it with a yes,” Mr Rubio added.
National security adviser Mike also said added it is “very clear” that Kyiv shares Donald Trump’s vision for peace and says “they share his determination to end the fighting”.
Over in the US, Mr Trump said that officials will meet with Russia either today or tomorrow and confirmed he would invite Mr Zelenskyy back to the White House.
“We want to get the Ukraine war over with,” the US president said, before saying he hopes to have a total ceasefire in the coming days.
He also told reporters he thinks he will talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin this week – but warned “it takes two to tango”.
Image: Donald Trump said ‘we want to get the Ukraine war over with’. Pic: Reuters
US vice president JD Vancetold the Ukrainian president “you should be thanking” Mr Trump “for trying to bring an end to this conflict,” sparking a tense 10-minute back-and-forth.
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0:42
From February: What happened when Trump met Zelenskyy?
A press conference with the two leaders and the signing of an agreement was then cancelled.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived in Saudi Arabia ahead of his team having talks with America’s top diplomat on Tuesday.
Mr Zelenskyy will not be at the meeting with US secretary of state Marco Rubio, but Mr Zelenskyy’s team will try to improve relations following his disastrous 28 February visit to Washington, which descended into an Oval Office argument with President Donald Trump and vice president JD Vance.
Image: Mr Zelenskyy with Prince Saud bin Mishaal, and Saudi commerce minister Majid bin Abdullah al Qasabi. Pic: AP
Mr Zelenskyy is due to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman later on Monday, after the end of the daily fast during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio is also in Jeddah. He is not due to meet Mr Zelenskyy – but he held talks with Prince Mohammed to discuss Yemen and threats to ships from Houthis, Syria, and the reconstruction of Gaza.
During talks on Tuesday the Ukrainian team will try to convince the US to restore military aid and intelligence that had helped Kyiv since Russia‘s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Speaking to reporters while travelling to Jeddah, Mr Rubio said if Ukraine and the US reach an understanding acceptable to Mr Trump, that could accelerate his administration’s push to peace talks.
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“What we want to know is, are they interested [in] entering some sort of peace conversation and general outlines of the kinds of things they could consider, recognising that it has been a costly and bloody war for the Ukrainians,” Mr Rubio said.
“They have suffered greatly and their people have suffered greatly. And it’s hard in the aftermath of something like that to even talk about concessions, but that’s the only way this is going to end and prevent more suffering.”
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2:25
‘We want Ukraine to be serious’ about peace
He said: “I’m not going to set any conditions on what they have to or need to do. I think we want to listen to see how far they’re willing to go and then compare that to what the Russians want and see how far apart we truly are.”
He added: “The most important thing that we have to leave here with is a strong sense that Ukraine is prepared to do difficult things, like the Russians are going to have to do difficult things to end this conflict.”
Meanwhile, British prime minister Sir Keir Starmer spoke to Mr Trump on Monday ahead of the US-Ukraine meeting.
A Downing Street readout of the call said that Sir Keir told the president that “UK officials had been speaking to Ukraine officials over the weekend and they remain committed to a lasting peace”.
“The prime minister said he hoped there would be a positive outcome to the talks that would enable US aid and intelligence sharing to be restarted,” the statement said.
“The two leaders also spoke about the economic deal they had discussed at the White House and the prime minister welcomed the detailed conversations that had already happened to move this forward. Both leaders agreed to stay in touch.”
The European Union agreed last week to boost the continent’s defences and free up hundreds of billions of euros for security in response to the Trump administration’s shift in policy towards Ukraine.
A US intelligence official said a pause on sharing US intelligence that can be used for offensive purposes by Ukrainian forces remains in effect.
The official suggested that progress could be made towards reinstating intelligence sharing with Ukraine during the Saudi talks.
Syria’s interim government has signed a deal with the Kurdish-led authority that controls the country’s oil-rich northeast.
The agreement – which includes a ceasefire and the merging of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) there into the Syrian army – will bring most of the nation under the control of the government.
The government is currently led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which helped to topple president Bashar al Assad in December.
Image: Syria’s interim president Ahmad al Sharaa (R) shakes hands with Mazloum Abdi, the commander of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Pic: AP
On Monday, the deal was signed by interim president Ahmad al Sharaa and Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the US-backed SDF.
The deal – to be implemented by the end of the year – would bring all border crossings with Iraq and Turkey, airports and oil fields in the northeast under the central government’s control.
Prisons, where about 9,000 suspected members of the Islamic State group are being held, are also expected to come under government control.
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Syria’s Kurds will gain their “constitutional rights” including using and teaching their language, which were banned for decades under Mr Assad.
Hundreds of thousands of Kurds who were displaced during Syria’s nearly 14-year civil war will return to their homes.
The deal will also allow all Syrians to be part of the political process, no matter their religion or ethnicity.
Image: Clashes between government supporters and those loyal to Bashar al Assad have seen more than 1,000 people killed. Pic: AP
Image: A coffin carrying the body of Nawaf Khalil Baytar, who was killed during the recent wave of violence. Pic: AP
Syria’s new rulers are struggling to exert their authority across the country and reach political settlements with other minority communities, notably the Druze in southern Syria.
Earlier in the day, the government announced the end of the military operation against insurgents loyal to Mr Assad and his family in the worst fighting since the end of the civil war.
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3:24
Surge of violence in Syria explained
The defence ministry’s announcement came after a surprise attack by gunmen from the Alawite community on a police patrol near the port city of Latakia on Thursday spiralled into widespread clashes across Syria’s coastal region.
Defence ministry spokesperson Colonel Abdel-Ghani said security forces will continue searching for sleeper cells and remnants of the insurgency of former government loyalists.
Though the government’s counter-offensive was able to mostly contain the insurgency, footage surfaced of what appeared to be retaliatory attacks targeting the broader minority Alawite community, an offshoot of Shia Islam whose adherents live mainly in the western coastal region.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitoring group, said 1,130 people were killed in the clashes, including 830 civilians.