The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war – but does it have the resolve?
Last spring, the mood in Ukraine was upbeat.
The West had rallied to President Zelenskyy’s call for military support to enable a spring offensive, and there was an air of optimism that Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine was to be defeated.
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However, a year on, the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive failed to deliver any significant changes to the frontline, and 2024 started with Russia on the front foot in the Donbas.
Vital supplies of Western military aid to Ukraine are waning, and President Putin will feel emboldened by his recent election result and his growing military advantage over Ukraine.
Although the Ukrainian forces have proven brave and tenacious on the Ukrainian battlefield, Russia has the advantage of “mass”.
Western high-tech precision weapons provided the Ukrainian military with a crucial advantage against the Russian invaders; however, two years into the war, Western war chests have been emptied, and the future is now looking increasingly bleak for President Zelenskyy and his fellow Ukrainians.
Pic: Reuters
Is this the beginning of the end for Ukraine?
High-end warfare consumes huge quantities of ammunition and weapons and requires a rapid mobilisation of the established defence industrial base to provide both the quantity, and quality, of munitions required.
Although the West’s defence industrial base has a significantly greater potential than Russia, the West has been slow to invest.
In stark contrast, Russia’s defence industry is now three times the size it was at the start of the war, and Russia’s oil revenues are sustaining the flow of weapons from both North Korea and Iran.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
Despite robust Western political rhetoric in support of Ukraine, actions speak louder than words, and Putin will feel emboldened by the West’s hesitancy over the level of commitment to combating Russian aggression.
Putin knows well that Russia has a significant military and economic advantage over Ukraine.
However, he also knows that Russia is no match for NATO or a concerted and determined Western campaign of military support for President Zelenskyy.
The question is whether Western support will continue at the level required.
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What is happening in Ukraine?
Putin’s threats resonate – even if he can’t risk NATO war
Putin has consistently threatened escalation in response to Western military aid to Ukraine.
At the start of the war, the West prevaricated about providing anti-tank weapons due to Putin’s threats.
However, the West eventually agreed to send modern tanks and then long-range missiles – such as Storm Shadow – despite a growing tirade of threats from Putin.
But even now, Russian threats of retaliation against Germany are delaying the supply of Taurus missiles.
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Putin knows he cannot afford to precipitate a war with NATO or the West, but his threats resonate with nervous Western leaders.
Ultimately, bullies such as Putin only respect strength and resolve.
If he were to subjugate Ukraine – eventually – his battle-hardened military, backed by a robust and sustainable defence industrial base, would hold a significant military advantage over any of Russia’s neighbours.
Unless the West shifts from appeasement to a robust defence of Ukraine, why would Putin stop?
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West could call Russia’s bluff to stop brutal war
Although there is no quick fix to the weapons crisis, the West does have other options available.
President Macron has consistently argued that the West should not rule out putting Western “boots on the ground” in Ukraine.
This is not just about Western military personnel – such a move would also enable the West to deploy modern weapons that cannot be gifted to Ukraine for security reasons.
Also, the Russian air force has struggled to prevail over a significantly smaller and less capable Ukrainian air force, losing over 10% of its pre-war fighter jets.
If the West was to impose a No-Fly Zone over all or part of Ukraine, that would present a huge threat to the Russian military advance, and significantly tip the balance of power Ukraine’s way.
President Putin would recognise the significance of such a move and would increase his threatening rhetoric, but he knows that it is Russia that is responsible for the war and for invading a vulnerable neighbour.
Pic: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Reuters
Russia cannot risk an escalation – its military has been decimated by the war to date, and nuclear weapons are only a credible option if Russia itself is threatened.
Ultimately, this is all about the resolve and determination of Western political leaders.
Nobody wants to get embroiled in a brutal war, but history suggests that aggressors such as Putin will not desist unless they are robustly challenged.
The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine, but does it have the political resolve?
World
Azerbaijan Airlines plane was damaged over Russia ‘due to shooting from the ground’, says president
An Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed, killing 38 people, was damaged while flying over Russia “due to shooting from the ground”, the country’s president has said.
President Ilham Aliyev said he believed that the plane, which crashed around two miles from Aktau in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, was not shot down intentionally.
However, he accused some circles in Russia of wanting to cover up the truth about the nature of the crash.
The Embraer 190 passenger jet was en route from Azerbaijan‘s capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus when it changed course.
It crashed in Kazakhstan while making an attempt to land after flying east across the Caspian Sea, killing 38 people and injuring all of the other 29 survivors.
In an interview with Azerbaijani television, Mr Aliyev said the plane was damaged “from the outside” over Russian territory and that “electronic warfare systems” put the plane “out of control”.
“At the same time, as a result of fire from the ground, the tail of the plane was also severely damaged,” he said.
“The fact that the fuselage is riddled with holes indicates that the theory of the plane hitting a flock of birds, which was brought up by someone, is completely removed from the agenda.”
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Video shows holes in crashed plane’s tail
He added: “Unfortunately, however, some circles in Russia preferred to put forward this theory. Another regrettable and surprising moment for us was that official Russian agencies put forward theories about the explosion of some gas cylinder on board the plane.
“In other words, this clearly showed that the Russian side wanted to cover up the issue, which, of course, is unbecoming of anyone.”
Specialists working at the crash site of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane near Aktau, Kazakhstan. Pic: Reuters
He said the plane was hit “by accident” and ruled out a “deliberate act of terror”.
However, he criticised Russian authorities for not taking responsibility for the crash.
“Admitting the guilt, apologising in a timely manner to Azerbaijan, which is considered a friendly country, and informing the public about this – all these were measures and steps that should have been taken,” he said.
“Unfortunately, for the first three days, we heard nothing from Russia except for some absurd theories.”
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Video shows inside plane before crash
On Saturday, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin apologised to his Azerbaijani counterpart for what he called a “tragic incident” – but stopped short of taking responsibility.
The Kremlin said in a statement on Saturday that air defence systems were firing near Grozny because of a Ukrainian drone strike, but stopped short of saying one of these downed the plane.
According to a Kremlin readout of a call, the Russian president apologised to Mr Aliyev “for the fact that the tragic incident occurred in Russian airspace”.
The White House said early indications suggest the plane could have been brought down by Russia,
Two US military officials told Sky News’ partner network NBC News that America has intelligence indicating Russia may have misidentified the aircraft as a drone and shot it down.
In the days following the crash, Azerbaijan Airlines blamed “physical and technical interference” and announced the suspension of flights to several Russian airports.
If proven, the plane crashed after being hit by Russian air defences, it would be the second deadly aviation incident linked to the Kremlin’s conflict with Ukraine.
Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down by a Russian missile according to investigators, killing all 298 people aboard, in 2014.
The UK has rejected Vladimir Putin’s apology over the deadly Azerbaijan Airlines crash and called for an independent investigation.
The Russian president apologised to his Azerbaijani counterpart for what he called a “tragic incident” – but stopped short of taking responsibility.
The Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet was flying from Azerbaijan’s capital Baku to Grozny, the capital of Russia’s Chechnya region, when it turned and crashed in Kazakhstan while making an attempt to land on Wednesday.
Some 38 people died in the crash, while there were 29 survivors.
The Kremlin said in a statement on Saturday that air defence systems were firing near Grozny because of a Ukrainian drone strike, but stopped short of saying one of these downed the plane.
According to a Kremlin readout of a call, the Russian president apologised to Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev “for the fact that the tragic incident occurred in Russian airspace”.
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Video shows inside plane before crash
The UK’s Foreign Office has called for a “full and independent” investigation into the crash, adding that Mr Putin’s apology “fails to recognise that the reckless and irresponsible actions of the Russian State pose an acute and direct threat to the interests and national security of other states.”
“Our thoughts are with all those affected by this incident, including the family and friends of those who have died,” a spokesperson added in a statement.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia “must provide clear explanations” and “stop spreading disinformation” in a call with Azerbaijan’s president.
“The key priority now is a thorough investigation to provide answers to all questions about what really happened,” he said in an X post.
“Photos and videos clearly show the damage to the aircraft’s fuselage, including punctures and dents, which strongly point to a strike by an air defence missile.”
The White House said early indications suggest the plane could have been brought down by Russia, while an Azerbaijani minister also blamed the crash on an external weapon.
Two US military officials told Sky News’ partner network NBC News that America has intelligence indicating Russia may have misidentified the aircraft as a drone and shot it down.
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Passengers and crew who survived the crash told Azerbaijani media that they heard loud noises on the aircraft as it was circling over Grozny.
In the days following the crash, Azerbaijan Airlines blamed “physical and technical interference” and announced the suspension of flights to several Russian airports.
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