The West had rallied to President Zelenskyy’s call for military support to enable a spring offensive, and there was an air of optimism that Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine was to be defeated.
However, a year on, the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive failed to deliver any significant changes to the frontline, and 2024 started with Russia on the front foot in the Donbas.
Vital supplies of Western military aid to Ukraine are waning, and President Putin will feel emboldened by his recent election result and his growing military advantage over Ukraine.
Although the Ukrainian forces have proven brave and tenacious on the Ukrainian battlefield, Russia has the advantage of “mass”.
Western high-tech precision weapons provided the Ukrainian military with a crucial advantage against the Russian invaders; however, two years into the war, Western war chests have been emptied, and the future is now looking increasingly bleak for President Zelenskyy and his fellow Ukrainians.
Is this the beginning of the end for Ukraine?
High-end warfare consumes huge quantities of ammunition and weapons and requires a rapid mobilisation of the established defence industrial base to provide both the quantity, and quality, of munitions required.
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Although the West’s defence industrial base has a significantly greater potential than Russia, the West has been slow to invest.
In stark contrast, Russia’s defence industry is now three times the size it was at the start of the war, and Russia’s oil revenues are sustaining the flow of weapons from both North Korea and Iran.
Despite robust Western political rhetoric in support of Ukraine, actions speak louder than words, and Putin will feel emboldened by the West’s hesitancy over the level of commitment to combating Russian aggression.
Putin knows well that Russia has a significant military and economic advantage over Ukraine.
However, he also knows that Russia is no match for NATO or a concerted and determined Western campaign of military support for President Zelenskyy.
The question is whether Western support will continue at the level required.
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What is happening in Ukraine?
Putin’s threats resonate – even if he can’t risk NATO war
Putin has consistently threatened escalation in response to Western military aid to Ukraine.
At the start of the war, the West prevaricated about providing anti-tank weapons due to Putin’s threats.
However, the West eventually agreed to send modern tanks and then long-range missiles – such as Storm Shadow – despite a growing tirade of threats from Putin.
But even now, Russian threats of retaliation against Germany are delaying the supply of Taurus missiles.
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Putin knows he cannot afford to precipitate a war with NATO or the West, but his threats resonate with nervous Western leaders.
Ultimately, bullies such as Putin only respect strength and resolve.
If he were to subjugate Ukraine – eventually – his battle-hardened military, backed by a robust and sustainable defence industrial base, would hold a significant military advantage over any of Russia’s neighbours.
Unless the West shifts from appeasement to a robust defence of Ukraine, why would Putin stop?
This is not just about Western military personnel – such a move would also enable the West to deploy modern weapons that cannot be gifted to Ukraine for security reasons.
Also, the Russian air force has struggled to prevail over a significantly smaller and less capable Ukrainian air force, losing over 10% of its pre-war fighter jets.
If the West was to impose a No-Fly Zone over all or part of Ukraine, that would present a huge threat to the Russian military advance, and significantly tip the balance of power Ukraine’s way.
President Putin would recognise the significance of such a move and would increase his threatening rhetoric, but he knows that it is Russia that is responsible for the war and for invading a vulnerable neighbour.
Russia cannot risk an escalation – its military has been decimated by the war to date, and nuclear weapons are only a credible option if Russia itself is threatened.
Ultimately, this is all about the resolve and determination of Western political leaders.
Nobody wants to get embroiled in a brutal war, but history suggests that aggressors such as Putin will not desist unless they are robustly challenged.
The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine, but does it have the political resolve?
On Monday morning, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) released a statement instructing people in southeastern Gaza to advance towards an “expanded humanitarian area” to the north, centred around the city of Khan Younis, and a coastal community called Al-Mawasi.
The IDF said it “includes field hospitals, tents and increased amounts of food, water, medication and additional supplies”.
The claim will be greeted with scepticism by international aid agencies that have argued the Israelis have failed to do enough to facilitate such aid.
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The UN’s refugee agency in Gaza, UNRWA, immediately questioned the operation on X.
UNRWA said an offensive “would mean more civilian suffering and deaths” and that “the consequences would be devastating for 1.4 million people”.
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The vast majority of people living in southern Gaza have already been displaced by the fighting further north.
And in what represents a significant juncture, the Israelis are instructing them to return to areas that have already badly damaged in this conflict.
Khan Younis was placed under siege by the IDF in January and many neighbourhoods have been partially – or completely – destroyed.
However, there are no doubts about the Israelis’ intent.
Leaflets are now being dropped in southeastern Gaza, stating: “Anyone in the area puts themselves and their family members in danger. For your safety, evacuate immediately….”
With this operation, Israel would test the very limits of support that it receives from Western countries like the US, the UK and members of the European Union.
Last week, US secretary of state Antony Blinken suggested an incursion into Rafah was a step too far, warning the Israelis had yet to produce “a clear, credible plan to protect civilians”.
Until it does, Mr Blinken said Washington “cannot and will not support a major military operation” in the area.
Now, Israel’s chief ally and military backer will have to formulate a response, one which requires them to evaluate the nature and extent of this complicated relationship.
Two Australian brothers and a US tourist who went missing in Mexico were shot dead by thieves who wanted their truck’s tyres, according to prosecutors.
Relatives of Jake and Callum Robinson and Jack Carter Rhoad have identified the three bodies.
They were dumped in a remote 15m-deep (50ft) well.
The trio went missing a week ago while on a surfing trip near the northern city of Ensenada – not far from the US border – and had posted photos on social media of isolated beaches.
Thieves likely saw their truck and tents and wanted their tyres but the men probably resisted, said prosecutor María Elena Andrade Ramírez.
She said the bodies were taken to “a site that is extremely hard to get to” in Baja California state.
The well, near where their truck and tent were found on Thursday, also contained a fourth body that had been there much longer.
It took two hours to winch the bodies out, said Ms Andrade Ramírez.
She said the same thieves may also have dumped the fourth body there.
After the bodies were found, surfers gathered in Ensenada, the nearest city, to protest at what they say is a lack of safety in the state.
“They only wanted to surf – we demand safe beaches,” said a sign held by one woman.
Some of them later took part in a ‘paddle-out’ ceremony in remembrance of the three men, forming a circle with their boards in the sea and throwing flowers.
In a Facebook message last week, Jake and Callum’s mother said she hadn’t been in touch with them since 27 April.
The post, on 1 May, said they were meant to check into an Airbnb in the resort town of Rosarito but “did not show up”.
Australian media reported Callum had been living in the US to try to become a professional lacrosse player, while his brother had only flown out to visit him two weeks ago.
It could be a scene from centuries ago. In the Nevada desert, Native Americans are protesting over a mining project they say desecrates sacred land.
They are riding to Sentinel Mountain, which their ancestors once used as a lookout in times gone by. Here, they say, more than 30 of their people were massacred by US cavalry in 1865.
Today, the land is at the heart of America’s electric car revolution and Joe Biden’s clean energy policy
Native American tribal members say the mine neglects their interests and offends their history.
The route of the “Prayer Horse Ride”, a journey on horseback through mining-affected communities in Northern Nevada, is designed to publicise their objections.
“Being the original inhabitants of the land means we have cultural ties and roots to these landscapes,” says Gary McKinney, a member of the Duck Valley Shoshone Paiute tribe.
“To me, it’s sacred ground,” says Myron Smart. His grandmother survived the massacre of 1865 as a baby. Industrialising this place, he says, offends her memory and reflects the story of Native Americans through time.
“We’re people too. We have red blood just like everybody in the United States.”
However, a US judge has rejected their complaints and the project is going ahead.
The open mine, which is on public land, will source lithium to power up to a million electric vehicles a year and will create 1,800 jobs in its construction phase.
President Biden aims to make the United States a world leader in electric vehicle technology and reduce reliance for lithium supply on countries like China.
The Thacker Pass project has supporters as well as opponents.
Lithium Americas, the company behind the project, insists the mine is not located on a massacre site. This was supported by a judge in 2021 who ruled the evidence presented by tribes “does not definitely establish that a massacre occurred” within the proposed project area.
Tim Crowley, the company’s VP of Government and External Affairs, said in a statement to Sky News: “Lithium Americas is committed to doing this project right, which is why we have a community benefits agreement in place with the local Fort McDermitt Paiute and Shoshone Tribe that ensures benefits from Thacker Pass accrue to them.
“Concerns about cultural and environmental resources were thoroughly addressed in the BLM’s (Bureau of Land Management) approved Environmental Impact Statement, which withstood comprehensive reviews by the Federal District and Circuit Courts.”
However, members of different Nevada-based Native American tribes continue to oppose the mining project. They say their evidence of the 1865 massacre, and a separate inter-tribal conflict, is rooted in the oral history passed on from their ancestors, through generations – not collated with a court case in mind, but compelling nonetheless.
“Back in our ancestors’ days, they didn’t write any documentation down, they didn’t send letters, they didn’t write in journals,” says Gary. “So there was no way that the United States government could know our story.
“These stories have been passed down generation to generation, so we have direct lineage from survivors of these massacres, which is how these stories remain in our families.”
The courts have also rejected complaints by tribal members and conservationists on the environmental impact and planning consultation.
The project throws a focus onto the issues surrounding the pursuit of clean energy.
“First off, we have to acknowledge that we need electric vehicles,” says Amanda Hurowitz of Mighty Earth, a global environmental non-governmental organisation.
They are more efficient than petrol and diesel cars, she says, and they are needed for the US to hit its climate targets.
But they also need more mined minerals – like lithium – and getting those materials out of the ground has an impact.
“All mining operations need to get consent from the local people,” she adds, “and the more consent, the better.”