The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war – but does it have the resolve?

Published

11 months ago

April 1, 2024

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Last spring, the mood in Ukraine was upbeat.

The West had rallied to President Zelenskyy’s call for military support to enable a spring offensive, and there was an air of optimism that Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine was to be defeated.

Russia-Ukraine latest: Putin signs conscription decree

However, a year on, the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive failed to deliver any significant changes to the frontline, and 2024 started with Russia on the front foot in the Donbas.

Vital supplies of Western military aid to Ukraine are waning, and President Putin will feel emboldened by his recent election result and his growing military advantage over Ukraine.

Although the Ukrainian forces have proven brave and tenacious on the Ukrainian battlefield, Russia has the advantage of “mass”.

Western high-tech precision weapons provided the Ukrainian military with a crucial advantage against the Russian invaders; however, two years into the war, Western war chests have been emptied, and the future is now looking increasingly bleak for President Zelenskyy and his fellow Ukrainians.

Is this the beginning of the end for Ukraine?

High-end warfare consumes huge quantities of ammunition and weapons and requires a rapid mobilisation of the established defence industrial base to provide both the quantity, and quality, of munitions required.

Although the West’s defence industrial base has a significantly greater potential than Russia, the West has been slow to invest.

In stark contrast, Russia’s defence industry is now three times the size it was at the start of the war, and Russia’s oil revenues are sustaining the flow of weapons from both North Korea and Iran.

Despite robust Western political rhetoric in support of Ukraine, actions speak louder than words, and Putin will feel emboldened by the West’s hesitancy over the level of commitment to combating Russian aggression.

Putin knows well that Russia has a significant military and economic advantage over Ukraine.

However, he also knows that Russia is no match for NATO or a concerted and determined Western campaign of military support for President Zelenskyy.

The question is whether Western support will continue at the level required.

Putin’s threats resonate – even if he can’t risk NATO war

Putin has consistently threatened escalation in response to Western military aid to Ukraine.

At the start of the war, the West prevaricated about providing anti-tank weapons due to Putin’s threats.

However, the West eventually agreed to send modern tanks and then long-range missiles – such as Storm Shadow – despite a growing tirade of threats from Putin.

But even now, Russian threats of retaliation against Germany are delaying the supply of Taurus missiles.

Putin knows he cannot afford to precipitate a war with NATO or the West, but his threats resonate with nervous Western leaders.

Ultimately, bullies such as Putin only respect strength and resolve.

If he were to subjugate Ukraine – eventually – his battle-hardened military, backed by a robust and sustainable defence industrial base, would hold a significant military advantage over any of Russia’s neighbours.

Unless the West shifts from appeasement to a robust defence of Ukraine, why would Putin stop?

West could call Russia’s bluff to stop brutal war

Although there is no quick fix to the weapons crisis, the West does have other options available.

President Macron has consistently argued that the West should not rule out putting Western “boots on the ground” in Ukraine.

This is not just about Western military personnel – such a move would also enable the West to deploy modern weapons that cannot be gifted to Ukraine for security reasons.

Also, the Russian air force has struggled to prevail over a significantly smaller and less capable Ukrainian air force, losing over 10% of its pre-war fighter jets.

If the West was to impose a No-Fly Zone over all or part of Ukraine, that would present a huge threat to the Russian military advance, and significantly tip the balance of power Ukraine’s way.

President Putin would recognise the significance of such a move and would increase his threatening rhetoric, but he knows that it is Russia that is responsible for the war and for invading a vulnerable neighbour.

Russia cannot risk an escalation – its military has been decimated by the war to date, and nuclear weapons are only a credible option if Russia itself is threatened.

Ultimately, this is all about the resolve and determination of Western political leaders.

Nobody wants to get embroiled in a brutal war, but history suggests that aggressors such as Putin will not desist unless they are robustly challenged.

The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine, but does it have the political resolve?

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US officials heading to Saudi Arabia for Russia-Ukraine peace talks

Published

17 hours ago

February 15, 2025

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US officials heading to Saudi Arabia for Russia-Ukraine peace talks

Two senior US officials are travelling to Saudi Arabia to initiate peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Two sources familiar with the matter told Sky News’ US partner network NBC News that national security adviser Mike Waltz and special envoy Steve Witkoff are on their way to Saudi.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said there had been an agreement to begin negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine, after holding phone calls with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Analysis: Peace talks risk short-term win that rewards Putin

The Ukrainian president alluded to the conversations at a security conference in Munich on Saturday, suggesting Europe should play a role in the negotiations as well.

“Ukraine will never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement, and the same rule should apply to all of Europe,” Mr Zelenskyy said.

“A few days ago, President Trump told me about his conversation with Putin. Not once did he mention that America needs Europe at the table. That says a lot.”

However, on Saturday night, Mr Trump’s Ukraine envoy said Europe would not have a seat at the table for Ukraine peace talks.

Earlier, Washington sent a questionnaire to European capitals to ask what they could contribute to security
guarantees for Kyiv.

“The old days are over when America supported Europe just because it always had,” said Mr Zelenskyy.

He told world leaders it is time for the creation of an “armed forces of Europe”, adding his army was “not enough”.

Following his call with President Putin, Mr Trump posted on Truth Social saying: “We both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine.”

Mr Trump had told White House reporters he did not see any way “that a country in Russia’s position” could allow Ukraine to join NATO and that it was unlikely Ukraine would get all of its occupied land back.

Mr Zelenskyy said the main issue was to “not allow everything to go according to Putin’s plan”.

It comes after UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told Mr Zelenskyy in recent days that Ukraine was still on an “irreversible path” to joining NATO.

World

Boy, 14, stabbed to death as five attacked in Austria

Published

18 hours ago

February 15, 2025

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Boy, 14, stabbed to death as five attacked in Austria

A man has stabbed five people in southern Austria, including a 14-year-old boy who has died from his injuries.

The 23-year-old man attacked five passersby in Villach on Saturday afternoon, according to police.

Officers said the suspect is a Syrian national with legal residence in Austria and has been detained.

A 42-year old man, who was driving by and saw the incident from his car, drove towards the suspect and helped prevent things from getting worse, police spokesperson Rainer Dionisio told Austria’s public broadcaster ORF.

The victims were all male and aged between 14 and 32. Two were seriously injured and two sustained minor injuries, and the teenager died, police said.

Mr Dionisio said they had not yet determined a motive but were investigating the suspect’s background.

“We have to wait until we get secure information,” he said.

The weekend attack shocked people in the city of Villach, a southern town in the province of Carinthia, which borders Italy and Slovenia.

Carinthia governor Peter Kaiser expressed his sympathy for the family of the teenage boy who was killed.

“This outrageous atrocity must be met with harsh consequences,” he said.

“I have always said with clarity and unambiguously – those who live in Carinthia, in Austria, have to respect the law and adjust to our rules and values.”

Police said it was unclear whether the suspect had been acting on his own or with other people, and are continuing to look for potential further suspects.

Meanwhile in Germany on Saturday, police confirmed a two-year-old girl and her mother had died after a car had been driven into a crowd in Munich on Thursday.

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What we know about Munich car ramming which has left dozens injured

Published

19 hours ago

February 15, 2025

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What we know about Munich car ramming which has left dozens injured

A mother and her two-year-old daughter have died – and more than 30 people were injured – after a car drove into a crowd in Munich, police have said.

The incident took place on Thursday at a square close to the city’s central train station at around 10.30am (9.30am UK time), officials said.

Here is everything we know:

What happened?

The car – a cream-coloured Mini Cooper – was driven into the crowd on a street called Seidlstrasse in a central area of the city.

The crowd was taking part in a demonstration organised by a trade union, and a police car was following them as they walked, deputy police chief Christian Huber said.

“Then a vehicle approached it from behind,” he added.

“It approached the police car to overtake it, and then accelerated and drove into the back of the demonstration.”

The badly damaged Mini could be seen after the attack along with items of clothing and bags, a broken pram, a shoe and a pair of glasses scattered across the floor.

A man was arrested at the scene after police fired a shot at the car vehicle.

What we know about the victims

Police on Saturday said a 37-year-old mother from Munich and her daughter were the first fatalities from the incident.

Officials had earlier said a total of at least 36 people were injured.

In Friday’s news conference, they said one adult and one child were “very seriously injured” and eight other people were seriously injured.

Who is the suspect?

The man arrested was a 24-year-old Afghan national, Farhad N, who came to Germany as an asylum seeker.

Officials say Farhad N has lived in Munich since he arrived as an unaccompanied minor in 2016, and has no previous convictions.

The man’s asylum application was rejected, but he had not been forced to leave due to security concerns in Afghanistan and he was in Germany legally with a work permit.

Prosecutors say he is now under investigation on 36 counts of attempted murder as well as bodily harm and dangerous interference with road traffic.

Do we know the motives?

At the news conference on Friday, prosecutor Gabriele Tilmann said the suspect appeared to have had a “religious motivation”.

In questioning, he “gave an explanation that I would summarise as religious motivation,” she said, adding the suspect shouted “Allahu Akbar”, or “God is great”, to police and then prayed after his arrest.

She said he admitted to police that he “deliberately drove into the participants of the demonstration”.

“I’m very cautious about making hasty judgements, but based on everything we know at the moment, I would venture to speak of an Islamist motivation for the crime,” she added.

She clarified that the authorities had no reason to believe that the perpetrator was affiliated with any Islamist or terrorist organisations and that they had not found any evidence of him having accomplices.

She said they were now looking through his devices to see “whether other people knew about the attack before it happened, or if he was part of a network”.

The incident happened shortly before world leaders including US vice president JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in the southern city for the Munich Security Conference, which started on Friday.

But police have said the incident is not thought to be related to the conference.

Incident comes amid immigration tensions

Security and immigration have been in sharp focus in Germany ahead of a federal election next week and following a string of violent attacks, with the far-right party AfD party doing well in polls.

Two months ago, a Saudi doctor was accused of driving his car into a crowd at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, killing six and injuring hundreds.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the Munich incident as a “terrible attack” and said the perpetrator “must be punished and he must leave the country”.

His comments come after the government said last year it was resuming flights for convicted criminals of Afghan nationality to their home country.

“It is very important for me to get the message across that anyone who commits crimes in Germany will not only be severely punished and sent to prison, they must also expect that they will not be able to continue their stay in Germany,” he said.

“That’s why I managed to get the government I lead to resume and carry out repatriations to Afghanistan, despite the lack of diplomatic relations,” he said.

He added: “We have already organised such a flight with criminals… we are also in the process of doing this in other cases. And not just once, but on an ongoing basis.

“This perpetrator cannot count on any leniency, he must be punished and he must leave the country.”