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Everyone knows the United States has the most powerful military in the world. No one else comes close to Washington’s ability to hunt down its enemies and quickly drop bombs on them from halfway across the world.

But what if America runs out of bombs?

The Ukrainian city of Avdiivka is a cautionary tale. On February 17, the city fell to a Russian assault because the defenders ran low on ammunition. Although Ukrainian authorities claimed they were overseeing an orderly withdrawal, the fighters faced a harrowing ordeal. One group of soldiers fled in abeat-up car, which limped to safety after a Russian rocket blew out a tire, French war correspondent Guillaume Ptak reported. Troopsfilmed themselvespassing by an iconic landmark, a sign that reads “Avdiivka is Ukraine,” with Russian bombsfalling around them.

U.S. foreign policy debates often focus on questions of money and political willpower, whether the American taxpayer has the patience to keep supporting overseas adventures. Less often than they should, those debates focus on the moral and ethical limits on American engagement overseas. The ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, however, have strained thephysicallimits of American power. The factories simply can’t make enough ammunition to keep up with all of Washington’s commitments, no matter how much money is thrown at them.

Previous Pentagon planners had not anticipated “the sort of lengthy, heavy fighting we’ve seen in Ukraine,” and the rate of fire has “well outstripped any sort of planning assumptions that [the U.S. Department of Defense] thought it would need for its own battles,” Josh Paul, a former U.S. State Department official who oversaw weapons exports, tellsReason.

The 155 mm artillery shell, a basic weapon of modern warfare, symbolizes this problem. The United States produced 28,000 shells in October 2023, a rate that comes out to 336,000 shells per year. In November 2023, different European officialsgave different estimatesof Europe’s combined production capacity, between 400,000 and 700,000 shells per year. Both regions have been increasing their production.

Yet the war in Ukraine is burning through 155 mm shells faster than everyone is making them. The United States sentmore than 2 million roundsin a year and a half. The stockpiles that the United States may need to fight its own future wars are running dry. It would take about five years to replenish American 155 mm stockpiles to pre-2022 levels, according to areportpublished by the nonprofit Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in January 2023. Other weapons, such as Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Javelin anti-tank rockets, would take even longer to restock.

That was before the latest war in Gaza, which has eaten up gargantuan amounts of ammunition. The Biden administration, which has released specific lists of weapons being sent to Ukraine, has remained tight-lipped about the specifics of its munitions support for Israel. A listleakedtoBloomberg Newsshows, though, that the United States sent 57,000 artillery shells and hundreds of guided missiles to Israel in the first month of the war.

These proxy wars should be a wake-up call. Americans have gotten used to fighting in indefinite conflicts, “forever wars,” sustained by financial borrowing and bipartisan consensus. Now the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are showing that all the money and political willpower in the world cannot overcome physical constraints. Even if the money doesn’t run out, the bombs do.

“We are at a point with our munitions stockpile where everything regarding American foreign policy is an issue of ‘can’ and not ‘should,'” says Dan Caldwell, an Iraq War veteran and public policy adviser for Defense Priorities who has been writing about munitions shortages for years. “This is not a reality that can be rapidly overcome by spending tens of billions of dollars on the defense industrial base.” Ukrainian Arms Shortages

Ukraine has faced arms shortages since the Russian invasion in February 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned reporters in November 2023 that “warehouses are empty” across Europe, and he mentioned the problem in his end-of-year speech the following month.

A few weeks later, Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov said during a video conference with foreign leaders the nation was facing a “very real and pressing” problem with ammunition. Around the same time, Ukrainian artillerymengave a CNN news crewa tour of their dugout bunker near the front lines. The troops pointed to nearly empty shelves and claimed they were forced to fire smokescreen rounds in lieu of explosive shells.

Though the Ukrainians could have been playing up the shortages for dramatic effect, the numbers are harder to fudge. Ukraine went from firing4,000 to 7,000 artillery shellsper day in late 2023, according to European estimates cited by the Associated Press, to2,000 roundsper day in January 2024, according to a letter from Umerov to his European counterparts.

Chet, an American volunteer fighting for the Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka, spoke about the issue on condition that his real name not be revealed. “Russia fires significantly more artillery, and this is felt on all areas of the front,” he said a few weeks before Avdiivka’s fall. Chet claimed that Russian forces were better able to launch attacks because of the artillery imbalance. Ukraine’s shortages, Chet warns, “are continuing to get worse.” After the fall of Avdiivka, he confirmed that ammunition shortages were a major reason for the Ukrainian retreat, as well as the Russian attackers’ ample air support.

Officials have often framed the problem as a lack of political willpower for Ukraine’s backers to spend money on the war. American funding for Ukraine ran dry at the end of 2023, and Congress spent months debating whether to send more. U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander told reporters in January 2024 that Ukrainian “units do not have the stocks and stores of ammunition that they require” and the Pentagon wants Congress “to move forward on a decision to pass the supplemental” aid package. When Avdiivka fell, the White House again blamed “congressional inaction” for the ammunition shortages.

Most of the money in the supplemental aid package, however, “is going to go into munitions and arms contracts that will take years to fulfill,” according to Caldwell.

Huge military budget numbers often feel divorced from reality. Especially with a Federal Reserve willing to constantly print more money, Americans have little frame of reference for understanding the difference between $10 billion and $20 billion, between $500 billion and $750 billion. But every dollar represents a demand on physical resources, some of which are more limited than others.

The military-industrial complex is not as competitive as it could be. While the government used to buy from smaller, more specialized firms, arms manufacturing in the United States is today dominated by larger conglomerates: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX (formerly known as Raytheon), Boeing, and General Dynamics.

“These massive defense companies…make their money in great part from research and development, and from new systems. If you look at Lockheed that produces everything from artillery ammunition to F-35 [fighter jets], where are they making their money? It’s on the F-35s,” explains Paul, the former State Department official. “You used to have much smaller companies, and all they would make was artillery ammunition. It would have been much easier to ramp up production, because there would have been a much more direct incentive for companies to expand their production.”

The most basic type of 155 mm round starts its life as a steel billet in Scranton, Pennsylvania. The billet is placed into a 2,000-degree furnace and shaped by robotic arms into a tube shape. The tube is cooled, heated again, and shaped into a bullet-shaped shell. It is then shipped to Ohio to be stuffed with explosives. Finally, on the front lines, artillerymen scew a fuse onto the nose of the shell and load it into the gun along with firing charges.

That process seems simple enough to scale up. To some extent, it has been. The U.S. Army doubledits productionof 155 mm shells over the course of the war in Ukraine, from a rate of 14,000 shells per month in February 2022. Army officials are now aiming to produce100,000 shells per monthby October 2025. Ukraine itself has announced plans to buildnew ammunition factorieson its soil with the help of American companies, although its minister of strategic industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, said in December 2023 that the production lines would take years to start running. Competition for Munitions

Precision-guided munitions, anti-aircraft systems, and standoff munitions are a much trickier problem. (“Standoff munitions” are weapons that can be fired at a distance, including cruise missiles and glide bombs.) These weapons often require advanced electronic parts and highly skilled labor, including workers with security clearances.

“The greatest challenge facing the U.S. when it comes to the defense industrial production of more advanced munitions is that the skilled labor pool to produce these munitions is shrinking, and the contracting procedures to produce them are complicated,” says Nicholas Heras, senior director for strategy at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a Washington-based nonprofit.

Chet, the American volunteer in Ukraine, points to one consequence of running out of advanced munitions. Russia has been able to terrorize Ukrainian cities with cheap Iranian-made Shahed drones, forcing Ukraine to use up its modern, high-quality anti-aircraft ammunition. Older anti-aircraft missiles havesometimes malfunctionedand crashed. In November 2022, a Ukrainian missile accidentallykilled two Polish farmersand caused a war scare in Poland. A year later, anothererrant air defense missileblew up a market in the Ukrainian city of Kupyansk, killing 17 civilians.

Chet claims that both types of incidentsRussian drone penetrations and Ukrainian air defense misfireshave happened more than the Ukrainian government is willing to admit. “Russia is still responsible for the core issue,” he emphasizes. “Those defective [surface-to-air] missiles wouldn’t have been launched if Russia didn’t send stuff we need to shoot down.”

Just as each type of weapon has different production needs, different conflicts have different needs, though many overlap. “The weapons Taiwan needs are not the exact same weapons Ukraine needs,” says Paul. Taiwan is an island, so it needs more anti-ship weapons. Ukraine is trying to retake lands conquered by Russia, fighting limited naval skirmishes along the coast. Both countries do require Patriot missiles, used to shoot down enemy aircraft.

The competition between Ukraine and Israel for the limited supply of arms is much more direct, since both are fighting artillery-heavy ground wars. The United States stores large amounts of ammunition in the War Reserves Stock Allies-Israel, which, as the name suggests, is meant for use by the United States, Israel, or other allies. By early 2023, alarge chunkof Ukraine’s artillery ammunition came from the stockpile. But “for political reasons as much as defense-analytical ones, the U.S. has sent those [munitions] back to Israel,” says Paul.

The October 2023 attacks on Israel by Hamas killed hundreds of Israelis, often in gruesome ways. Americans felt a sense of urgency to help a friendly country that they no longer felt for the Ukrainian war effort. U.S. President Joe Biden and the Republican opposition, who sharply disagreed on Ukraine, both threw their weight behind Israel.

The growing pro-Israel war fervor led Paul, who strongly supported U.S. aid to Ukraine, to publicly resign from his post. HetoldThe New Yorkerthat limiting Israel’s access to weapons might force Israeli leaders to be more “selective” in their attacks, but the attitude inside the U.S. government was, “Let’s give them weapons, it doesn’t matter.”

Paul’s worst fears seem to have been realized. In his words, Israel has unleashed an “insane” quantity of weapons onto Gaza.

Ukrainian forces fire about240,000artillery shells per month, across hundreds of miles of front line that includes cities and the countryside. In October and November 2023, the first two months of the war in Gaza, the Israeli army fired100,000 shells, which comes out to 50,000 per month, into a city that is 25 miles long. Israel, unlike Ukraine, has total air superiority, so it has also been dropping huge numbers of U.S.-made bombs from fighter jets.

By the end of 2023, around 70 percent of the homes in Gazahad been destroyed, a rate comparable to themost battle-torncities of World War II. Tens of thousands of Palestinians, 1 percent of Gaza’s prewar population, have been killed. Israeli spokespeople argue that this level of destruction is Hamas’s fault for embedding itself in Palestinian society.

“Israel has its own deep stockpiles that it’s free to use as it pleases, but we’ve also been accelerating deliveries to them to allow them to continue firing at that pace,” Paul says. Unprepared for Future Wars

Meanwhile, the war has expanded across the Middle East, as Iran and its Arab allies demand an end to the siege on Gaza. The Houthi movement, one of two rival governments in Yemen, began threatening Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and attacking ships of multiple nations. The United States and several of its allies sent a naval fleet to Yemen to protect ships passing through the region. The Houthis continued to defy American demands and attack foreign shipping, including non-Israeli ships. On January 12, the U.S. Navy and its partners attacked weapons caches and airports across Yemen. The bulk of the firepower came from American ships, which launchedat least 80Tomahawk missiles.

The U.S. Navy had blown through a year’s supply of its missiles in just one night. American factories produce a few dozen Tomahawk missiles per year; the Navy hadordered70 of them in FY 2022, and only 50 in FY 2023. (The U.S. military is believed to already haveseveral thousandTomahawk missiles in storage.) Biden signaled his willingness to drag out the conflict for a long time with no concrete endpoint. “Are [the airstrikes] stopping the Houthis? No,” he told reporters on January 18. “Are they going to continue? Yes.” The airstrikes have indeed continued since then, with the Navy launching another tranche of Tomahawk missiles at Yemen on February 4.

“The more advanced standoff munitions are necessary in theaters where naval warfare is decisive, which is why a protracted and potentially metastasizing conflict in the Red Sea threatens U.S. preparedness to respond in the Indo-Pacific,” says Heras of the New Lines Institute.

Mike Black, a former U.S. Air Force maintenance officer known for his acerbic commentary, was more blunt about the profligacy of the anti-Houthi assaults onsocial media: “It’ll take them until 2026 to replenish what was shot here. Hope blowing up some cobbled together radio shack drones and commercial radar sets was worth it.” He added later in the thread that “the amount of stuff we would burn through in a dust up with Iran would take years to replace.”

The military is not a retailer; it does not benefit from getting rid of its inventory quickly. A war with China would require far more firepower than a limited campaign against “radio shack drones and commercial radar sets” does, which raises questions about whether the current ammunition stockpile can meaningfully deter that nation from adventurism against Taiwan. When CSIS conducted aseries of war gamessimulating a war over Taiwan, it concluded that the United States would have to launch “about 5,000 long-range precision missiles” within three or four weeks of combat.

The U.S. would use different types of missiles for striking different types of targets, including enemy ships and airfields, but bottlenecks can affect all of them at once. “A critical part of this is not just the finished weapon that’s relevant. It’s also the sub-components, fr instance, turbofans for missiles,” said Elbridge Colby, author of the Trump administration’s National Defense Strategy, in a December 2023interviewwith C-SPAN. A shortage of one type of turbofan engine could hold up the production of several different missile types.

The U.S. Navy is not the only relevant actor. Japan and South Korea would be key U.S. allies in any Pacific confrontation. Both countries have indirectly sent some of their own munitions to support the war in Ukraine. Although South Korean lawbans supplying weaponsto conflict zones, South Korea agreed in 2023 to “loan” the United States half a million 155 mm shells. Japan has similarly agreed to sendPatriot missilesto the United States, in order to replenish U.S. stocks sent to Ukraine.

The Taiwanese military itself, of course, would be Taiwan’s first line of defense. But there is a $19.17 billion backlog in American weapons that Taiwan has ordered and not yet received, according to a2023 studyby the Cato Institute. Perhaps because the possibility of a conflict seems so remote, Taiwan has had to wait longer than other U.S. customers for weapons deliveries, the authors found.

Competition for arms is piling up among U.S. allies. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have created what Paul calls a “bow wave” of demand, as nations near the conflict zones (like Poland) begin building up their own militaries. There is competition not only among the nations at war for American weapons, but also among the nations preparing for war. Problems Money Can’t Fix

Just as Paul would rather the U.S. aid Ukraine than Israel, Colby has been calling for the United States to ditch some of its commitments to focus on countering China. He also differs from Paul in believing that Israel is a more worthy recipient of American weapons than Ukraine is.

But even if they would set their priorities differently, the two former officials are making the same underlying point: The United States has made heavier military commitments than its factories can bear.

There is a “fundamental discordance between where we are and where we would like to be,” Colby said during adebatehosted by the conservative Hoover Institution last year. “And the thing is, you can’t solve that with defense spending.”

That is not the impression that American leaders have given. Biden, in an October 2023 interview with60 Minutes, brushed off a question about whether the U.S. can support Ukraine and Israel at the same time. “We’re the United States of America for God’s sake, the most powerful nation not in the world, in the history of the world,” the president said.

Caldwell, the public policy adviser, says politicians are “lying to us about these constraints” and pretending that “the only thing holding back American foreign policy is a lack of willpower.” He calls it “mathematically impossible” for the U.S. to continue supplying different war efforts at the rate it has been, even without new wars on the horizon.

“We have no choice but to deprioritize certain conflicts and avoid getting into new conflicts unless we want a serious military disaster,” Caldwell concludes. “Stop pretending we don’t have constraints, because you are doing a disservice to the American people, and you are risking our safety and our prosperity.”

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‘It all turned so bad so fast’: Inside James Franklin’s Penn State departure

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October 16, 2025

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'It all turned so bad so fast': Inside James Franklin's Penn State departure

Oct 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Two nights before James Franklin’s final game at Penn State, an unranked Clarkson University men’s hockey team scored on the fourth-ranked Nittany Lions a minute after puck drop. Behind the net, students erupted into chants of “Fire Franklin” — and resumed the chant after every goal in a 6-4 Clarkson win.

On Saturday, during Penn State’s stunning 22-21 loss to Northwestern, the “Fire Franklin” chants echoed through Beaver Stadium — and never let up.

After a third straight loss, Franklin looked defeated. As if saying goodbye, he stood on the 10-yard line and hugged every remaining player on the field before heading through the south tunnel for the last time as head coach.

There, his wife and daughter waited. He sent them ahead — perhaps so they wouldn’t hear the vitriol that awaited him — as he passed fans lined up on either side of the underpass to the locker room.

“How it all turned so bad so fast,” one Penn State athletic department source said, “I don’t know.”

The Nittany Lions began the season ranked No. 2 in the AP Top 25. They poured millions into building a loaded roster and a seasoned coaching staff that Franklin called his best yet. While the other Big Ten powers were set to debut new quarterbacks, Penn State boasted a three-year starter in Drew Allar, who opened as one of the Heisman Trophy betting favorites.

Coming off a CFP semifinal appearance, Penn State seemed poised to chase its first national title in 39 years. Yet with those expectations came unprecedented pressure on the Nittany Lions, who under Franklin had repeatedly wilted in big games.

As one former Penn State staff member put it, “They were either gonna win it all — or they were gonna implode.”

Six games into Franklin’s 12th season, the Nittany Lions imploded.

They lost in double overtime at home to Oregon, which dropped Franklin to 4-21 at Penn State against AP top-10 opponents, including 1-18 in Big Ten games.

They fell at winless UCLA — a team that had already fired its coach and hadn’t led once all season. Then, they lost to an unranked Northwestern, making Penn State the first team since the 1978 FBS-FCS split to lose consecutive games as 20-point or more favorites.

“It’s 100 percent on me,” Franklin said afterward. “We got to get it fixed — and I will get it fixed.”

By then, Penn State was too broken.

On Sunday, Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft fired Franklin. It was a difficult, emotional parting, as Kraft had a strong relationship with Franklin and respect for how he had built the program. Sources inside the program indicated culture wasn’t the problem — as evidenced by the decision of 10 star players to turn down the NFL draft and return for another season.

“This is not a three-game thing,” Kraft said Monday. “This is really diving into where we are as a program — what is the trajectory of this program?”

That drove Kraft to make the call despite Franklin’s $49 million buyout — the second largest in college football history behind Jimbo Fisher’s $76 million Texas A&M payout.

Franklin, who didn’t immediately respond to texts or calls from ESPN, won 149 games and reached double-digit wins six times in 11 seasons at Penn State, including the previous three.

Yet no matter what he or the program tried, the Nittany Lions couldn’t win in the games that mattered most. And after Penn State failed to beat Oregon, the bottom finally fell out — the school’s fan base and power brokers gave up on its coach ever getting the Nittany Lions over the top.

“I’m here to win a national championship,” Kraft said. “And I believe our fans deserve that.”

Interviews with program insiders detail how a season that began with such promise in Happy Valley spiraled out of control — and what comes next for Penn State.

THE NITTANY LIONS reeled off seven wins to begin last season, setting up a November top-five clash in State College against Ohio State.

Penn State jumped to an early 10-0 lead, but the Nittany Lions failed to score another touchdown. Twice, the Ohio State defense stoned Penn State inside the 5-yard line on the way to a 20-13 victory.

The Buckeyes went on to win the national championship.

Penn State’s brass had seen how Ohio State’s massive financial investment the previous offseason paid off in big moments, from the victory in State College to a dominant run through the playoff.

The Buckeyes sank $20 million into their roster. They kept key players from bolting early for the NFL and landed several star players in the transfer portal. They even hired away UCLA coach Chip Kelly to be offensive coordinator.

This offseason, the Nittany Lions emulated that blueprint.

They found the money to keep Allar and standout running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen on campus. They also hired away Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, who had transformed the Buckeyes defense into the best in college football.

After a one-point loss to Ohio State in 2018, Franklin noted that Penn State had gone from a “good football team to a great football team.” But the Nittany Lions still weren’t on an elite level — like Ohio State.

“Right now, we’re comfortable being great,” he said then. “I’m going to make sure that everybody in our program, including myself, is very uncomfortable. … We are going to break through.”

This year, that breakthrough seemed possible.

As one Penn State source said, Kraft and the administration ensured that Franklin had “everything he needed to win a national championship and get rid of that stigma. … You want to keep those running backs? Let’s do it. We need a wide receiver? Let’s f—ing do it. Jim Knowles is out there? How much is it gonna cost? What do you need? Let’s go do it.”

Penn State sources noted that the program’s funding began matching that of Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia. Underscoring that, the Nittany Lions are in the middle of a $700 million renovation to Beaver Stadium, which is set to be completed by the 2027 season.

“There was a lot of momentum trending our way,” one university source said. “But the echo chamber of how good we were started to echo against itself. Like, we’re not just going to make the playoff, we’re going to win the national championship. It just got bigger and bigger, where the expectations were just massive.”

Instead of overwhelming the opposition, though, the Nittany Lions played tense. They struggled under the weight of those expectations, even during the first three wins over Nevada, Florida International and Villanova.

The vaunted running game sputtered, and the defense wasn’t suffocating the opposition as the players adjusted to Knowles’ system. Even then, alarm bells were going off inside the Lasch Football Building.

“The culture had gotten really tight,” one athletic department source said. “People around here were like, ‘We’re going to get f—ing crushed by Oregon.'”

One NFL personnel executive who had scouted those first three games wondered the same.

“They stunk,” he said. “It was like, what’s happening with them?”

Still, coming off a bye, the Nittany Lions had a prime opportunity to prove they were over their big-game flops of the past with the Ducks traveling in for a Sept. 27 prime-time showdown in front of a White Out Beaver Stadium crowd.

“This is going to be a statement game for our season,” Allen told ESPN the week before.

Instead, it was more of the same.

They didn’t get crushed, but struggled for long stretches. The offense under second-year coordinator Andy Kotelnicki never established the running game. Allar couldn’t find a rhythm. And while Oregon coach Dan Lanning aggressively went for it on fourth down five times alone in the first half, Franklin managed the game conservatively.

Facing fourth-and-9 from the Oregon 36-yard line, Franklin sent in the punt team. The ball landed in the end zone, resulting in a touchback. The Ducks capitalized, scoring their first touchdown, then another on their ensuing drive to take a 17-3 lead in the fourth quarter.

That’s when the first “Fire Franklin” chants began to reverberate around Beaver Stadium.

“When you’re more talented than the other team, that doesn’t hurt you,” said an NFL personnel executive, who’s scouted the Nittany Lions this season. “But in these close games where the talent [gap] gets a little bit smaller, it comes down to a few of those decisions that you make in terms of what position you put your team in … you could see Lanning stacking decisions and setting up different things they wanted to do throughout the game. The strategy was clear. … For all of James’ strengths, recruiting and leadership, his major weakness — in-game decision-making — showed up in every close game.”

Allar finally came alive in the fourth quarter and led the Nittany Lions on back-to-back touchdown drives to send the game to overtime. But then on Penn State’s first snap of the second overtime, he threw an interception, handing the Nittany Lions yet another loss in a top-10 matchup.

As fans emptied out of Beaver Stadium, many could be heard chanting “F— Drew Allar.”

In the 12-team playoff era, Penn State’s season technically wasn’t over with one loss. Under Franklin, the Nittany Lions had usually responded well after crushing big-game defeats. After the setback to Ohio State last year, Penn State responded by hammering Washington and Purdue by a combined score of 84-16. After losing to Michigan late in the 2023 season, the Nittany Lions finished off the regular season by dispatching Rutgers 27-6 and Michigan State 42-0.

But with so much riding on this season, the Oregon defeat was an emotional blow that sent the Nittany Lions to the mat.

They never got back up.

“It’s so hard mentally when you expect something big to happen,” a Power 4 assistant of Penn State said. “When that gets devastated so early, some dudes just don’t handle it very well.”

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Stephen A.: Penn State was justified to fire James Franklin

Stephen A. Smith explains why Penn State made the right decision by firing James Franklin.

THE NITTANY LIONS traveled to Pasadena, California, hoping to get their season back on track against winless UCLA. The Bruins had recently fired coach DeShaun Foster and both coordinators after getting thumped by New Mexico 35-10.

But one source close to Penn State described the Nittany Lions as “emotionless” after Oregon.

“The team needed inspiration and confidence,” the source said. “But it was all hesitation.”

The Bruins were 24-point underdogs. They had scored just 57 points in their previous four games combined. But UCLA scored on its first five possessions to take a 27-7 lead into halftime.

“Wide receivers weren’t finishing routes, guys weren’t finishing blocks, the defensive line not being where they’re supposed to be — things that were always done at Penn State weren’t happening,” a program source said.

The Nittany Lions tried to fight back in the second half, but a curious fourth-and-2 call from the UCLA 9-yard line ended the rally. Kotelnicki dialed up an end-around zone-read, and the Bruins buried Allar behind the line of scrimmage.

That play call proved emblematic of Penn State’s offensive struggles under Kotelnicki, who had thrived with gimmicks at Kansas, but failed to fully embrace Penn State’s hard-nosed tradition or get the best out of Allar’s skill set.

“He tries to do a lot of stuff with movement and motions, but it just didn’t play well,” a coach who faced Penn State said. “With the running backs they have and the skill guys they brought in at receiver, you’d have thought they would have been able to get more production out of that group. … [In turn], Drew regressed.”

Afterward in the Rose Bowl tunnels, UCLA’s defensive linemen taunted Allar, saying “first round [quarterback], what?”

Franklin, partially blaming the cross-country travel for the way his team played, was asked if he still believed this was the best combination of coaching and talent he’d had at Penn State.

“How am I supposed to answer that,” he replied, shaking his head. “Obviously I felt that way or I wouldn’t have said it. But after two losses, it’s hard for me to answer that question and say that that’s the case.”

Allar was asked if the Nittany Lions still had a chance of making the playoff.

“What do you think?” he fired back. “Yes.”

One Penn State source called the lackluster performance “mind-blowing.” Another said the Lasch facility “felt like a morgue” leading into Northwestern.

Over the summer at Big Ten media days, Allar said it was time for Penn State “to get over that hump” in big games. Suddenly, the Nittany Lions couldn’t win the smaller ones, either.

The pressure had gotten to them.

“It wasn’t fair to the kids,” a source close to the program said. “It’s just not, because you’re not at your best when you’re worried about making a mistake, and you’ve got to be perfect. Then you lose the love of what you do, and you lose your confidence and you’re just a shell of yourself.”

That applied to Allar, whose production dipped.

Allar had strongly considered leaving for the NFL after last season. Multiple scouts said they believe Allar would’ve been a first-round pick last year and noted several teams had him in the second tier, behind No. 1 pick Cam Ward, with Jaxson Dart, who went 25th overall to the New York Giants.

“People were very excited about him,” one NFL personnel executive said of Allar.

But after throwing a costly interception in the CFP semifinal, setting up Notre Dame‘s game-winning field goal, Allar opted to come back.

This season, fair or not, Allar came to symbolize Penn State’s tentative, uncertain approach.

At 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, boasting a powerful arm, Allar often played — or had been instructed to play — like a quarterback with far fewer natural gifts, said one source close to the program.

“You could just tell he had a self-monologue of, ‘Don’t screw it up, don’t throw a pick,’ just not playing very confidently,” a coach who faced Penn State said. “They just feel like a team that doesn’t know who they are.”

When Allar arrived at Penn State, he showed promise of becoming the player who had eluded the Nittany Lions. From Sean Clifford to Christian Hackenberg, Penn State had signed prototypical quarterback prospects before. But none under Franklin had developed into a passer capable of leading the Nittany Lions to a national championship or turning into a first-round pick.

As a sophomore in 2023, Allar threw 25 touchdowns with just two interceptions. The following offseason, Franklin hired Kotelnicki to unlock Penn State’s downfield passing attack.

Last season, Allar ranked 16th nationally with a QBR of 77.5. He also averaged 8.44 yards per attempt.

But this year, Allar’s play declined. He ranks just 91st with 6.9 yards per passing attempt, only a notch above the 6.8 he averaged two years ago. Allar also has an off-target passing rate of 13.3% this season, 12th worst among Power 4 quarterbacks.

“His accuracy was off all year,” a defensive coordinator who faced Penn State said.

NFL sources added that they felt the Nittany Lions operated like they didn’t fully trust him.

“And they have more information than we do,” one NFL personnel executive said. “When they needed him to put it on his back, you just never saw that. … But the other side of the argument is, his career so eerily mirrored Hackenberg, you do wonder if there’s a quarterback development issue.”

As if it couldn’t get any worse for Allar, late in the fourth quarter against Northwestern, while trying to run for a first down, he suffered a season-ending left leg injury. Having played more than four games in each of the past four seasons, Allar has exhausted his eligibility.

On Monday, tears welled in Kraft’s eyes as he spoke of Allar.

“Anyone who ever doubts that young man’s commitment to Penn State and Penn State football, you don’t know what the hell you’re talking about,” Kraft said. “He’s one hell of a young man and he puts up with a lot of crap. … He wants to win in the worst way. To see it end that way, you never want that.”

DESPITE PENN STATE’S nightmare season, Kraft projected optimism about the program’s future.

“We have invested at the highest level,” he said. “Ultimately, I believe a new leader can help us win a national championship.”

Sources close to the program expect Kraft to swing for the fences in hiring a new coach. Possible candidates could include Indiana‘s Curt Cignetti, Iowa State‘s Matt Campbell, Texas A&M’s Mike Elko and Georgia Tech‘s Brent Key.

But all eyes will be on Nebraska coach Matt Rhule, who worked under Kraft at Temple. The two remain close.

Rhule won 10 games in 2015 and 2016 at Temple before taking the head job at Baylor.

In 2024, he led Nebraska to its first winning season in seven years; this fall, the Huskers are 5-1. Yet, those who have worked with Rhule in the past call Penn State “his dream job.”

This week, Rhule, a walk-on linebacker for the Nittany Lions under Joe Paterno in the 1990s, didn’t rule out a return to his alma mater.

“I love that place,” Rhule said. “I love Pat. I love James Franklin and am sad that came to an end. I wish him the absolute best. But I’m really happy here.”

Said a former Penn State staffer of Rhule: “They’re probably a perfect marriage. If you’re Pat, you hope Matt finishes really strong, and you can parade him in front of your donors. … [They have] to hire somebody who infuses confidence into the fan base.”

While Rhule enjoyed success at Temple and Baylor, taking the Bears to the Big 12 championship game in 2019, he too has struggled to win big games.

Over his stints at Temple, Baylor and Nebraska, Rhule is 0-11 against AP top-10 opponents and 2-23 against the Top 25. He had 18 upset wins and 13 upset losses during that time.

Only 53 years old, Franklin’s coaching career is likely far from finished.

On Sunday, he addressed the players in what sources characterized as an emotional meeting.

“The players really did love him,” one source said.

Penn State center and captain Nick Dawkins praised Franklin’s “contagious energy, fighter’s spirit, toughness and grit” on Tuesday.

“All the flak and criticism and boos and chants in the face of adversity, he remained a strong shoulder, remained stone cold for his players, for the university,” he said. “Standing tall for those that are standing with you.”

ESPN college football writers Paolo Uggetti and Max Olson contributed to this report.

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The Bottom 10 won’t have James Franklin to kick around anymore

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2 hours ago

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October 16, 2025

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The Bottom 10 won't have James Franklin to kick around anymore

  • Ryan McGee

Oct 15, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

Inspirational thought of the week:

“Are you surprised?”

“Surprised, Eddie? If I woke up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet, I wouldn’t be more surprised than I am right now.”

— Clark Griswold and Cousin Eddie, “National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation”

Here at Bottom 10 Headquarters, located behind the storage trailers that hold all of the makeup and rubber noses required to attempt to make Glen Powell look even remotely unattractive in “Chad Powers,” we, like Chad’s South Georgia Catfish teammates and coaching staff, sometimes struggle with recognizing who and what is actually standing before us. Then, when they reveal their true identities, which we’re assuming Chad will do at some point, we are left standing with our jaws on the floor and face in our hands like Hugh Freeze during another replay review.

See: Last week’s much-anticipated Pillow Fight of the Week of the Year Mega Bowl between what were then the Bottom 10 third-ranked UMess Minuetmen and the fourth-ranked State of Kent. And we weren’t alone in our anticipation of a close game. The wiseguys in the desert with their calculators next to the shrimp buffet had Kent as a 1.5-point favorite, and our ESPN Analytics team’s Ouija board Win Probability Index believed UMass had a 43.9% chance to emerge victorious.

Final score: Kent State 42, UMass 6.

See, Part 2: Penn State, which just three weekends ago came within a couple of knuckles of beating Oregon in overtime, was facing its second consecutive Bottom 10 contender, Northworstern, having lost to the then-ucLa Boo’ins the week before. And the Nittany Lions lost again, their third straight defeat, then fired James Franklin, who had coached them to within three points of playing for the national title just 10 months ago.

The point is that no one knows what the hell we are talking about. But talking about it is so much fun. Well, for us it is so much fun. In Amherst, Massachusetts, and State College, Pennsylvania, they are looking out the window at the silent majesty of a winter’s morn and a guy in his bathrobe, emptying a chemical toilet into their sewer.

With apologies to former North Texas tight end Robert Griswold, former Northwestern tight end Bob Griswold, Cousin Eddie George and Steve Harvey, here are the post-Week 7 Bottom 10 rankings.

The Minuetmen are currently ranked 130th in points against, 135th in rushing yards and 136th in points for. They are also ranked 111th in passing yards. Do you think those other units look at the passing guys and say, “Stop making the rest of us look bad”?

The Beavers traveled to North Carolina and lost to Appalachian State, then hosted and lost to another North Carolina team in Wake Forest, then fired head coach Trent Bray, who wasn’t even the biggest Coach Trent to lose his job this week …

The good news for the Bearkats is they kame the klosest to akkcomplishing viktory as they have all season before sukkumbing to Jacksonville State Not Jacksonville City 29-27. Up next on the kalendar is a Konference USA Pillow Fight of the Week. Against whom do they klash? Keep scrolling …

Yep, it’s the Minors, who will travel to Sam Houston State on Wednesday night. Hopefully someone reminds them that Sam Houston State isn’t actually in Houston; it’s an hour north in Huntsville. Hopefully someone reminds them that it’s not the Huntsville in Alabama, but the one in Texas, one town over from Arizona, which hopefully someone reminds them is the Arizona town in Texas, not the state of Arizona.

Sources tell Bottom 10 JortsCenter that when James Franklin drove home from the office with his box of stuff, he was greeted in the driveway by Charlie Weis and Bobby Bonilla, who gave him a signed copy of “How To Make a Mattress From Your Pile of Money” by Scrooge McDuck.

The Woof Pack started the year with a loss to Penn State back when Happy Valley was still happy, and followed that with a win over Sacramento State. The rest of the year has been like another former Reno-based late-night show, HBO’s “Cathouse.” And just like that brothel reality program, we never admit that we’ve watched, but secretly we can’t look away.

If you were wondering when MTSU and Novada might play in their own version of the Pillow Fight of the Week, we have bad news. It already happened. The Blew Raiders scored two TDs in the final six minutes to win 14-13 back in Week 3.

When Trent Dilfer was fired by UAB, he went down to the locker room to tear a bunch of stuff up, but after 2½ seasons of him exploding like the red Anger guy from “Inside Out,” there was nothing left to break.

The Pillow Fight of the Week, Y’all Edition, is the college football equivalent of that pointing Spider-Man meme, as Georgia State Not Southern travels to Georgia Southern Not State, which is 2-4. The winner retains exclusive rights to “GSU” for the next year. The loser has to change all its logos to “GUS.”

For those of you — and we are talking to ourselves here — who are still bummed about the lack of substance in the UMass-Kent State game, picture in your mind Obi-Wan Kenobi and Yoda sitting on a Dagobah log as Luke Skywalker flies away to get his butt whipped by Darth Vader. “That boy was our last hope.” “No … there is another.” These Other Huskies travel to UMass on Nov. 12 … and host Kent State over Thanksgiving weekend. Also, how great would it be to see Obi-Wan and Yoda wearing #MACtion gear? Speaking of the Midwest, I’ve heard from a lot of Wisconsin fans that the Bad-gers should be in this spot. Yeah, I’ve seen your schedule. You’ll be here soon enough. To quote Luke’s dad — Skywalker, not Fickell — it is your destiny.

Waiting list: State of Kent, EMU Emus, South Alabama Redundancies, Oklahoma State No Pokes, Charlotte 1-and-5ers, Wisconsin Bad-gers, Bah-stan Cawledge, UNC Chapel Bill, clapping with fingers.

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Reports: Yankees SS Volpe has shoulder surgery

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2 hours ago

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October 16, 2025

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Reports: Yankees SS Volpe has shoulder surgery

Oct 16, 2025, 09:12 AM ET

Anthony Volpe recently had surgery to repair a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder, according to multiple reports, jeopardizing his availability for the start of the 2026 season and further complicating the New York Yankees‘ plan at shortstop.

Volpe underwent the surgery Tuesday — less than a week after the end of his disappointing 2025 season — and was operated on by Yankees team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad, according to reports.

The New York Post first reported Volpe’s surgery Wednesday. The Yankees are expected to officially confirm the reports when general manager Brian Cashman and manager Aaron Boone hold their end-of-season news conference Thursday.

Volpe initially injured his shoulder in early May and was hampered by the injury throughout the season.

The former top prospect had two cortisone shots — one in July, and another in September — but Cashman indicated last month that the Yankees thought Volpe might avoid surgery.

Recovery timelines for labrum operations often vary, but the minimum time required to heal from the surgery is typically four months. Cashman and Boone are expected to discuss Volpe’s situation Thursday, but a lengthy recovery likely will force the Yankees to search for alternatives at shortstop.

Volpe’s future with the Yankees already was uncertain after he struggled throughout the season. The 2023 Gold Glove winner committed 19 errors — tied for the third most in the majors — and batted just .212 with a .663 OPS. He went 5-for-26 in New York’s seven postseason games, striking out 16 times.

Jose Caballero filled in for Volpe at shortstop over the final two months of the season, and the Yankees also could use Oswaldo Cabrera at the position.

Shortstop George Lombard Jr. is New York’s top minor league prospect, but the 20-year-old batted just .215 in 108 games at Double-A Somerset this season and is considered a long shot to make the Yankees’ Opening Day roster in 2026.

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