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Everyone knows the United States has the most powerful military in the world. No one else comes close to Washington’s ability to hunt down its enemies and quickly drop bombs on them from halfway across the world.

But what if America runs out of bombs?

The Ukrainian city of Avdiivka is a cautionary tale. On February 17, the city fell to a Russian assault because the defenders ran low on ammunition. Although Ukrainian authorities claimed they were overseeing an orderly withdrawal, the fighters faced a harrowing ordeal. One group of soldiers fled in abeat-up car, which limped to safety after a Russian rocket blew out a tire, French war correspondent Guillaume Ptak reported. Troopsfilmed themselvespassing by an iconic landmark, a sign that reads “Avdiivka is Ukraine,” with Russian bombsfalling around them.

U.S. foreign policy debates often focus on questions of money and political willpower, whether the American taxpayer has the patience to keep supporting overseas adventures. Less often than they should, those debates focus on the moral and ethical limits on American engagement overseas. The ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, however, have strained thephysicallimits of American power. The factories simply can’t make enough ammunition to keep up with all of Washington’s commitments, no matter how much money is thrown at them.

Previous Pentagon planners had not anticipated “the sort of lengthy, heavy fighting we’ve seen in Ukraine,” and the rate of fire has “well outstripped any sort of planning assumptions that [the U.S. Department of Defense] thought it would need for its own battles,” Josh Paul, a former U.S. State Department official who oversaw weapons exports, tellsReason.

The 155 mm artillery shell, a basic weapon of modern warfare, symbolizes this problem. The United States produced 28,000 shells in October 2023, a rate that comes out to 336,000 shells per year. In November 2023, different European officialsgave different estimatesof Europe’s combined production capacity, between 400,000 and 700,000 shells per year. Both regions have been increasing their production.

Yet the war in Ukraine is burning through 155 mm shells faster than everyone is making them. The United States sentmore than 2 million roundsin a year and a half. The stockpiles that the United States may need to fight its own future wars are running dry. It would take about five years to replenish American 155 mm stockpiles to pre-2022 levels, according to areportpublished by the nonprofit Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in January 2023. Other weapons, such as Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Javelin anti-tank rockets, would take even longer to restock.

That was before the latest war in Gaza, which has eaten up gargantuan amounts of ammunition. The Biden administration, which has released specific lists of weapons being sent to Ukraine, has remained tight-lipped about the specifics of its munitions support for Israel. A listleakedtoBloomberg Newsshows, though, that the United States sent 57,000 artillery shells and hundreds of guided missiles to Israel in the first month of the war.

These proxy wars should be a wake-up call. Americans have gotten used to fighting in indefinite conflicts, “forever wars,” sustained by financial borrowing and bipartisan consensus. Now the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are showing that all the money and political willpower in the world cannot overcome physical constraints. Even if the money doesn’t run out, the bombs do.

“We are at a point with our munitions stockpile where everything regarding American foreign policy is an issue of ‘can’ and not ‘should,'” says Dan Caldwell, an Iraq War veteran and public policy adviser for Defense Priorities who has been writing about munitions shortages for years. “This is not a reality that can be rapidly overcome by spending tens of billions of dollars on the defense industrial base.” Ukrainian Arms Shortages

Ukraine has faced arms shortages since the Russian invasion in February 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned reporters in November 2023 that “warehouses are empty” across Europe, and he mentioned the problem in his end-of-year speech the following month.

A few weeks later, Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov said during a video conference with foreign leaders the nation was facing a “very real and pressing” problem with ammunition. Around the same time, Ukrainian artillerymengave a CNN news crewa tour of their dugout bunker near the front lines. The troops pointed to nearly empty shelves and claimed they were forced to fire smokescreen rounds in lieu of explosive shells.

Though the Ukrainians could have been playing up the shortages for dramatic effect, the numbers are harder to fudge. Ukraine went from firing4,000 to 7,000 artillery shellsper day in late 2023, according to European estimates cited by the Associated Press, to2,000 roundsper day in January 2024, according to a letter from Umerov to his European counterparts.

Chet, an American volunteer fighting for the Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka, spoke about the issue on condition that his real name not be revealed. “Russia fires significantly more artillery, and this is felt on all areas of the front,” he said a few weeks before Avdiivka’s fall. Chet claimed that Russian forces were better able to launch attacks because of the artillery imbalance. Ukraine’s shortages, Chet warns, “are continuing to get worse.” After the fall of Avdiivka, he confirmed that ammunition shortages were a major reason for the Ukrainian retreat, as well as the Russian attackers’ ample air support.

Officials have often framed the problem as a lack of political willpower for Ukraine’s backers to spend money on the war. American funding for Ukraine ran dry at the end of 2023, and Congress spent months debating whether to send more. U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander told reporters in January 2024 that Ukrainian “units do not have the stocks and stores of ammunition that they require” and the Pentagon wants Congress “to move forward on a decision to pass the supplemental” aid package. When Avdiivka fell, the White House again blamed “congressional inaction” for the ammunition shortages.

Most of the money in the supplemental aid package, however, “is going to go into munitions and arms contracts that will take years to fulfill,” according to Caldwell.

Huge military budget numbers often feel divorced from reality. Especially with a Federal Reserve willing to constantly print more money, Americans have little frame of reference for understanding the difference between $10 billion and $20 billion, between $500 billion and $750 billion. But every dollar represents a demand on physical resources, some of which are more limited than others.

The military-industrial complex is not as competitive as it could be. While the government used to buy from smaller, more specialized firms, arms manufacturing in the United States is today dominated by larger conglomerates: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX (formerly known as Raytheon), Boeing, and General Dynamics.

“These massive defense companies…make their money in great part from research and development, and from new systems. If you look at Lockheed that produces everything from artillery ammunition to F-35 [fighter jets], where are they making their money? It’s on the F-35s,” explains Paul, the former State Department official. “You used to have much smaller companies, and all they would make was artillery ammunition. It would have been much easier to ramp up production, because there would have been a much more direct incentive for companies to expand their production.”

The most basic type of 155 mm round starts its life as a steel billet in Scranton, Pennsylvania. The billet is placed into a 2,000-degree furnace and shaped by robotic arms into a tube shape. The tube is cooled, heated again, and shaped into a bullet-shaped shell. It is then shipped to Ohio to be stuffed with explosives. Finally, on the front lines, artillerymen scew a fuse onto the nose of the shell and load it into the gun along with firing charges.

That process seems simple enough to scale up. To some extent, it has been. The U.S. Army doubledits productionof 155 mm shells over the course of the war in Ukraine, from a rate of 14,000 shells per month in February 2022. Army officials are now aiming to produce100,000 shells per monthby October 2025. Ukraine itself has announced plans to buildnew ammunition factorieson its soil with the help of American companies, although its minister of strategic industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, said in December 2023 that the production lines would take years to start running. Competition for Munitions

Precision-guided munitions, anti-aircraft systems, and standoff munitions are a much trickier problem. (“Standoff munitions” are weapons that can be fired at a distance, including cruise missiles and glide bombs.) These weapons often require advanced electronic parts and highly skilled labor, including workers with security clearances.

“The greatest challenge facing the U.S. when it comes to the defense industrial production of more advanced munitions is that the skilled labor pool to produce these munitions is shrinking, and the contracting procedures to produce them are complicated,” says Nicholas Heras, senior director for strategy at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a Washington-based nonprofit.

Chet, the American volunteer in Ukraine, points to one consequence of running out of advanced munitions. Russia has been able to terrorize Ukrainian cities with cheap Iranian-made Shahed drones, forcing Ukraine to use up its modern, high-quality anti-aircraft ammunition. Older anti-aircraft missiles havesometimes malfunctionedand crashed. In November 2022, a Ukrainian missile accidentallykilled two Polish farmersand caused a war scare in Poland. A year later, anothererrant air defense missileblew up a market in the Ukrainian city of Kupyansk, killing 17 civilians.

Chet claims that both types of incidentsRussian drone penetrations and Ukrainian air defense misfireshave happened more than the Ukrainian government is willing to admit. “Russia is still responsible for the core issue,” he emphasizes. “Those defective [surface-to-air] missiles wouldn’t have been launched if Russia didn’t send stuff we need to shoot down.”

Just as each type of weapon has different production needs, different conflicts have different needs, though many overlap. “The weapons Taiwan needs are not the exact same weapons Ukraine needs,” says Paul. Taiwan is an island, so it needs more anti-ship weapons. Ukraine is trying to retake lands conquered by Russia, fighting limited naval skirmishes along the coast. Both countries do require Patriot missiles, used to shoot down enemy aircraft.

The competition between Ukraine and Israel for the limited supply of arms is much more direct, since both are fighting artillery-heavy ground wars. The United States stores large amounts of ammunition in the War Reserves Stock Allies-Israel, which, as the name suggests, is meant for use by the United States, Israel, or other allies. By early 2023, alarge chunkof Ukraine’s artillery ammunition came from the stockpile. But “for political reasons as much as defense-analytical ones, the U.S. has sent those [munitions] back to Israel,” says Paul.

The October 2023 attacks on Israel by Hamas killed hundreds of Israelis, often in gruesome ways. Americans felt a sense of urgency to help a friendly country that they no longer felt for the Ukrainian war effort. U.S. President Joe Biden and the Republican opposition, who sharply disagreed on Ukraine, both threw their weight behind Israel.

The growing pro-Israel war fervor led Paul, who strongly supported U.S. aid to Ukraine, to publicly resign from his post. HetoldThe New Yorkerthat limiting Israel’s access to weapons might force Israeli leaders to be more “selective” in their attacks, but the attitude inside the U.S. government was, “Let’s give them weapons, it doesn’t matter.”

Paul’s worst fears seem to have been realized. In his words, Israel has unleashed an “insane” quantity of weapons onto Gaza.

Ukrainian forces fire about240,000artillery shells per month, across hundreds of miles of front line that includes cities and the countryside. In October and November 2023, the first two months of the war in Gaza, the Israeli army fired100,000 shells, which comes out to 50,000 per month, into a city that is 25 miles long. Israel, unlike Ukraine, has total air superiority, so it has also been dropping huge numbers of U.S.-made bombs from fighter jets.

By the end of 2023, around 70 percent of the homes in Gazahad been destroyed, a rate comparable to themost battle-torncities of World War II. Tens of thousands of Palestinians, 1 percent of Gaza’s prewar population, have been killed. Israeli spokespeople argue that this level of destruction is Hamas’s fault for embedding itself in Palestinian society.

“Israel has its own deep stockpiles that it’s free to use as it pleases, but we’ve also been accelerating deliveries to them to allow them to continue firing at that pace,” Paul says. Unprepared for Future Wars

Meanwhile, the war has expanded across the Middle East, as Iran and its Arab allies demand an end to the siege on Gaza. The Houthi movement, one of two rival governments in Yemen, began threatening Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and attacking ships of multiple nations. The United States and several of its allies sent a naval fleet to Yemen to protect ships passing through the region. The Houthis continued to defy American demands and attack foreign shipping, including non-Israeli ships. On January 12, the U.S. Navy and its partners attacked weapons caches and airports across Yemen. The bulk of the firepower came from American ships, which launchedat least 80Tomahawk missiles.

The U.S. Navy had blown through a year’s supply of its missiles in just one night. American factories produce a few dozen Tomahawk missiles per year; the Navy hadordered70 of them in FY 2022, and only 50 in FY 2023. (The U.S. military is believed to already haveseveral thousandTomahawk missiles in storage.) Biden signaled his willingness to drag out the conflict for a long time with no concrete endpoint. “Are [the airstrikes] stopping the Houthis? No,” he told reporters on January 18. “Are they going to continue? Yes.” The airstrikes have indeed continued since then, with the Navy launching another tranche of Tomahawk missiles at Yemen on February 4.

“The more advanced standoff munitions are necessary in theaters where naval warfare is decisive, which is why a protracted and potentially metastasizing conflict in the Red Sea threatens U.S. preparedness to respond in the Indo-Pacific,” says Heras of the New Lines Institute.

Mike Black, a former U.S. Air Force maintenance officer known for his acerbic commentary, was more blunt about the profligacy of the anti-Houthi assaults onsocial media: “It’ll take them until 2026 to replenish what was shot here. Hope blowing up some cobbled together radio shack drones and commercial radar sets was worth it.” He added later in the thread that “the amount of stuff we would burn through in a dust up with Iran would take years to replace.”

The military is not a retailer; it does not benefit from getting rid of its inventory quickly. A war with China would require far more firepower than a limited campaign against “radio shack drones and commercial radar sets” does, which raises questions about whether the current ammunition stockpile can meaningfully deter that nation from adventurism against Taiwan. When CSIS conducted aseries of war gamessimulating a war over Taiwan, it concluded that the United States would have to launch “about 5,000 long-range precision missiles” within three or four weeks of combat.

The U.S. would use different types of missiles for striking different types of targets, including enemy ships and airfields, but bottlenecks can affect all of them at once. “A critical part of this is not just the finished weapon that’s relevant. It’s also the sub-components, fr instance, turbofans for missiles,” said Elbridge Colby, author of the Trump administration’s National Defense Strategy, in a December 2023interviewwith C-SPAN. A shortage of one type of turbofan engine could hold up the production of several different missile types.

The U.S. Navy is not the only relevant actor. Japan and South Korea would be key U.S. allies in any Pacific confrontation. Both countries have indirectly sent some of their own munitions to support the war in Ukraine. Although South Korean lawbans supplying weaponsto conflict zones, South Korea agreed in 2023 to “loan” the United States half a million 155 mm shells. Japan has similarly agreed to sendPatriot missilesto the United States, in order to replenish U.S. stocks sent to Ukraine.

The Taiwanese military itself, of course, would be Taiwan’s first line of defense. But there is a $19.17 billion backlog in American weapons that Taiwan has ordered and not yet received, according to a2023 studyby the Cato Institute. Perhaps because the possibility of a conflict seems so remote, Taiwan has had to wait longer than other U.S. customers for weapons deliveries, the authors found.

Competition for arms is piling up among U.S. allies. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have created what Paul calls a “bow wave” of demand, as nations near the conflict zones (like Poland) begin building up their own militaries. There is competition not only among the nations at war for American weapons, but also among the nations preparing for war. Problems Money Can’t Fix

Just as Paul would rather the U.S. aid Ukraine than Israel, Colby has been calling for the United States to ditch some of its commitments to focus on countering China. He also differs from Paul in believing that Israel is a more worthy recipient of American weapons than Ukraine is.

But even if they would set their priorities differently, the two former officials are making the same underlying point: The United States has made heavier military commitments than its factories can bear.

There is a “fundamental discordance between where we are and where we would like to be,” Colby said during adebatehosted by the conservative Hoover Institution last year. “And the thing is, you can’t solve that with defense spending.”

That is not the impression that American leaders have given. Biden, in an October 2023 interview with60 Minutes, brushed off a question about whether the U.S. can support Ukraine and Israel at the same time. “We’re the United States of America for God’s sake, the most powerful nation not in the world, in the history of the world,” the president said.

Caldwell, the public policy adviser, says politicians are “lying to us about these constraints” and pretending that “the only thing holding back American foreign policy is a lack of willpower.” He calls it “mathematically impossible” for the U.S. to continue supplying different war efforts at the rate it has been, even without new wars on the horizon.

“We have no choice but to deprioritize certain conflicts and avoid getting into new conflicts unless we want a serious military disaster,” Caldwell concludes. “Stop pretending we don’t have constraints, because you are doing a disservice to the American people, and you are risking our safety and our prosperity.”

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Hicks, ex-owner of Rangers and Stars, dies at 79

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December 7, 2025

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Hicks, ex-owner of Rangers and Stars, dies at 79

  • Associated Press

Dec 7, 2025, 02:44 AM ET

DALLAS — Tom Hicks, the Texas businessman and philanthropist who owned two Dallas-area professional sports franchises and an English Premier League soccer team, died Saturday. He was 79.

Spokesperson Lisa LeMaster said in statement that Hicks died peacefully in Dallas surrounded by family.

Hicks owned the NHL’s Dallas Stars from 1995 to 2011, winning the Stanley Cup in 1999. He also owned baseball’s Texas Rangers from 1998 to 2010, leading them to three American West Division titles and a World Series appearance. In 2007, he acquired a 50% stake in Liverpool.

“Being shoulder to shoulder with him was always about more than ballparks and stadiums, though,” Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said in a statement. “It was about personal respect, trust and friendship. We shared a lot of miles together, and I’ll miss him greatly. My heart goes out to his family.”

Hicks co-founded Hicks & Haas in 1984 and helped reshape private equity and investing strategy. He served on the University of Texas’s board of regents from 1994 to 1999.

“Tom Hicks was an innovative businessman and a pioneer in private equity,” fellow Texas businessman Ross Perot Jr. said in a statement. “He combined his commitment to business and sports through his ownership of the Stars and the Rangers.”

Hicks is survived by his wife of 35 years, Cinda Cree Hicks, and his six children — Thomas Ollis Hicks Jr., Mack Hardin Hicks, John Alexander Hicks, Robert Bradley Hicks, William Cree Hicks and Catherine Forgrave Hicks.

His children released a joint statement, saying:

“Of everything he accomplished in his remarkable life, Tom Hicks’s most cherished title was, ‘Dad.’ No matter the trials and tribulations he faced in life, he was constant in his generosity and love for his family. He remains a guiding force for our family, and we are deeply honored to continue expanding his legacy. Although we are devastated by this loss, we are profoundly grateful to have been his children.”

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Projecting the final CFP top 12: Where does Alabama land?

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December 7, 2025

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Projecting the final CFP top 12: Where does Alabama land?

Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.

It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.

With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.

Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?

Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.

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Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.

Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.

Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.

Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.

Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.

Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.

Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.

Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.

Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).

Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.

Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.

Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).

Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.

Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.

Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.

Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.

Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.

Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.

Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.

Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.

Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.

Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.

Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.

Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.

Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.

Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.

Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.

Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.

Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.

Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.

Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.

Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.

Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.

Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.

Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.

Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana

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Final bowl projections: Predicting every postseason game

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December 7, 2025

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Final bowl projections: Predicting every postseason game

  • Kyle Bonagura

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    Kyle Bonagura

    ESPN Staff Writer

    • Covers college football.
    • Joined ESPN in 2014.
    • Attended Washington State University.

  • Mark Schlabach

    Close

    Mark Schlabach

    ESPN Senior Writer

    • Senior college football writer
    • Author of seven books on college football
    • Graduate of the University of Georgia

Dec 7, 2025, 01:00 AM ET

After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?

We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

All times Eastern

Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT

Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State

Complete bowl season schedule

Matchups in bold have already been announced

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M

Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware

Thursday, Dec. 18

Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

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