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The government has no national plan for the defence of the UK or the mobilisation of its people and industry in a war despite renewed threats of conflict, Sky News has learnt.

Officials are now starting to develop a cross-government “national defence plan”, it can be revealed.

Dr Keith Dear, a former RAF intelligence officer and former adviser on national security, science and technology to the prime minister, argues below that it is reasonable for the public to assume there are detailed plans for any anticipated conflicts.

Keith Dear
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Keith Dear

The US secretary of state warns we are “moving from a post-war to a pre-war world” and that “in five years’ time we could be looking at multiple theatres involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea”.

The chief of the general staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders tell us that we are the “pre-war generation”.

The public might reasonably expect, therefore, that there are detailed plans, regularly refreshed, which would ensure we are prepared in advance for these anticipated conflicts, expected to be dramatically larger and more deadly than anything fought in recent memory – wars we might lose.

Surely, government departments, the Ministry of Defence, the Home Office, the intelligence agencies and our armed forces have a plan to know what to do when it starts, are structured according to the requirements, and can respond quickly?

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Such plans are essential not only to avoid scrambling disorder and early defeats but also so that our adversaries, awed by our preparedness, are deterred from fighting in the first place.

The problem is, there is no plan.

We used to have one. Maintained by the government until the early 2000s, the central Government War Book sensibly detailed plans for the continuity of government in the event of war and a possible nuclear exchange.

It was needed so those of us who survived didn’t awake to anarchy.

The book also contained essential plans for mobilising the country in response to the imminent threat and outbreak of conventional non-nuclear war.

Pic: National Archives
Image:
Pic: National Archives

To this central Government War Book, a whole series of subordinate war books were developed and maintained by all departments – most obviously the Ministry of Defence, Home Office and Foreign Office – but even the BBC had a War Book plan to sustain broadcast communications to an anxious public.

These were not abstract and vague, but planned against the specific, anticipatable wars we might face.

Today, there are no such plans.

The Government War Book was developed by the first modern pre-war generation – those living in the years preceding 1918 – under the leadership of ex-Royal Marine and first cabinet secretary Maurice Hankey.

The War Book was interdepartmental, and detailed what needed to be done, where, and by whom, both in preparing for war should we reach the “precautionary stage”, and upon its outbreak the “war stage”.

A copy of the Ministry of Defence’s 1963 War Book in the National Archives shows it to be detailed, and comprehensive, referencing multiple tightly coordinated, supporting plans across the government and beyond.

In 1935, the last pre-war generation also worried war might come in five years. Consequently, our government then began to refresh the War Book in earnest.

Concurrently in 1935, the UK began building its military, and military-industrial preparedness.

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For example, Lord Weir, the Scottish industrialist, was appointed to oversee a plan he had earlier proposed: building “shadow factories” adjacent to automotive factories, ready to manufacture aircraft at scale when war broke out.

The government thought deeper too, considering the need to be able to manufacture the machine tools on which factories would themselves depend, and those that could automate elements of manufacturing to speed up the rearmament effort and free up people for other tasks in the war effort, investing public funds accordingly.

The preparation was such that, after some dithering, on 23 August 1939, the government began to implement the pre-war “precautionary stage” of the plan.

Within a week, by 31 August, almost all the precautionary stage measures had been actioned. The War stage was actioned with the declaration of war a day later.

Today’s pre-war generation has had two warnings: first from COVID, and then from Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine.

The government’s response to the pandemic, where there was no plan worthy of the name, and mostly chaos for months, allows us to imagine what it would be like if war were to come without a plan to mobilise for it and to fight it.

Similarly, our inability to supply anything like enough munitions or weapons to Ukraine, shows also how hollowed out we have become by buying and building armed forces to no coherent war-fighting plan. Weapons without ammunition are useless. And we can’t know if we have the right weapons, either.

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If the secretary of state’s warnings of war sound alarmist, consider this: the director of the CIA suggests China seeks to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan from 2027.

The chair of the US House Select Committee says that 2027 may be the end, not the beginning of the window for when an attack on Taiwan is most likely.

A leaked internal memo suggests at least one four-star general in the US Air Force expects a war with China in 2025. In Europe, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas believes that Russia may threaten NATO‘s borders within three years.

Sweden’s civil defence minister and commander-in-chief warns Sweden must prepare for war now.

Even in what was until recently a deeply pacifist Japan, over 86% of citizens polled believe their country may have to go to war, while their government has doubled its defence budget.

The government would say there is a plan. Whitehall lists resilience frameworks, alert systems, risk registers and regular meetings.

What these things have in common is none of them amount to anything Hankey, or any reasonable observer, would regard as a plan – explaining what we think could happen, and specifically who needs to do what, when, to respond effectively.

The long disaggregated, disconnected nature of the various government artefacts speak of their own weakness, with commitments to what we will have done by 2030 and beyond. Not a plan for how to respond if X or Y happened tomorrow.

If we are five years from war, it is worth contemplating Lord Weir’s question, posed to the last pre-war generation in 1935: “Are we doing all we ought to anticipate by proper planning and arrangement the grave delays which were the feature of our almost fatal unpreparedness in 1914?”

Today, there is no plan. It is hard to imagine how we could be doing less.

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Prosecutors drop charges against two men accused of spying for China

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Prosecutors drop charges against two men accused of spying for China

Prosecutors have dropped charges against two men, including a former parliamentary researcher, who had been accused of spying for China.

Christopher Cash, 30, and Christopher Berry, 33, had both denied accusations of providing information prejudicial to the interests of the state in breach of the Official Secrets Act between December 2021 and February 2023.

It was alleged they obtained, recorded and published information “for a purpose prejudicial to the safety or interests of the state” and which could be “directly or indirectly, useful to an enemy”.

They were due to go on trial next month, but prosecutor Tom Little told London’s Old Bailey they would offer no evidence against the pair.

He said: “We simply cannot continue to prosecute.”

A spokesperson for the Home Office said it was “disappointing” the pair would not face trial “given the seriousness of the allegations”.

They said the decision was made by the Crown Prosecution Service “entirely independently of government”.

“National security is the first duty of government and we remain steadfast in upholding this responsibility,” the spokesperson said. “We will continue to use the full range of tools and powers to guard against malign activity.”

A Crown Prosecution Service spokesperson said: “In accordance with the Code for Crown Prosecutors, the evidence in this case has been kept under continuous review and it has now been determined that the evidential standard for the offence indicted is no longer met. No further evidence will be offered.”

Read more from Sky News:
Prime Madeleine McCann suspect refuses UK police interview
New details emerge about suspect in Charlie Kirk killing

Mr Cash’s lawyer said his client was “entirely innocent and should never have been arrested, let alone charged”.

Speaking outside court, Mr Cash said: “While I am relieved that justice has been served today, the last two and a half years have been a nightmare for me and my family.”

He said he hoped “lessons are learned from this sorry episode”.

China had dismissed the charges as “self-staged political farce”.

Mr Cash previously worked as a parliamentary researcher and was closely linked to senior Tories including former security minister Tom Tugendhat and Alicia Kearns, who served as chair of the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee.

He was director of the China Research Group, which was chaired by Mr Tugendhat and then Ms Kearns.

Mr Berry has worked in various teaching posts in China since September 2015.

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New evidence shows ‘significantly more missed opportunities’ to stop Southport killer

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New evidence shows 'significantly more missed opportunities' to stop Southport killer

New evidence has emerged of earlier opportunities to have stopped the Southport attacker before he was able to murder three young girls, according to the lawyer representing their families.

The parents of Bebe King, Elsie Dot Stancombe and Alice da Silva Aguiar will today give evidence to the inquiry which was set up to establish firstly how Axel Rudakubana was able to carry out the attack last July and also to identify lessons to avoid a repeat.

In July, a major review found the government’s Prevent counter-terrorism scheme missed an opportunity to intervene in Rudakubana’s life and potentially turn him away from violence.

Officials with Prevent had been warned three times by teachers that Rudakubana was obsessed with violence – but the case was closed on each occasion because he was not found to have a terrorist ideology.

Now, the lawyer representing the families of Bebe, Elsie and Alice has told Sky News “significant” evidence is emerging of earlier opportunities to have identified Rudakubana as a threat.

Chris Walker said: “We know there have been failings with the Prevent process but, as we are delving deeper and the deeper into the evidence which has been disclosed to us continuously, it is becoming apparent that there were more opportunities and more failings before the Prevent failings.

“It would be inappropriate for me to comment on what exactly those are at this stage. It is evident that the problems with him occurred several years before the Prevent system failed.”

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Mr Walker said the families wanted “individual accountability, systemic accountability and systemic reform” to come from the inquiry and an understanding of how and why mistakes occurred.

“We can’t have a system which is designed to prevent evil murderers committing tragedies of this nature being able to continue with their conduct because of individual errors,” he said.

“The system must be robust enough to absorb individual errors to ensure these tragedies will never happen again.”

The Southport Inquiry was told previously there was a 'wholesale failure' to address risks posed by Rudakubana
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The Southport Inquiry was told previously there was a ‘wholesale failure’ to address risks posed by Rudakubana

The Southport inquiry, chaired by Sir Adrian Fulford, was set up to examine the circumstances surrounding the attack and the events leading up to it. It will examine Rudakubana’s history and interactions with local services and agencies and their decision-making and information-sharing.

Rudakubana is serving a life sentence with a minimum of 52 years for murdering six year old Bebe, Elsie, who was seven, and Alice, aged nine, at a Taylor Swift-themed dance event.

He seriously injured eight more girls and two adults who had tried to stop him.

Between 2019 and 2021 teachers reported him three times to Prevent under a national duty to alert police and other agencies to potential extremists. On each occasion his case was rejected.

Read more:
The missed chances to stop Rudakubana
Grandfather who tackled killer

The injury has already heard evidence from the parents of other children about the life-changing impact on them of what happened inside the dance studio on 29 July last year.

Families ‘cannot grieve’

For the parents of Bebe, Elsie and Alice, Mr Walker said, the process has been a difficult one.

“The families remain traumatised. It has been approximately 14 months since this horrific attack occurred. Within that time they’ve conducted themselves with dignity and, as a consequence of that, they present extremely well.

“The reality is when they close their front door they remain traumatised and this inquiry is going to continue with that traumatisation for another 12 months, at least, so they’ve not been able to start the next stage of their grieving process.

“But the families are committed to the inquiry. They appreciate and understand the significance of it and the reason for it and they remain committed.”

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Prime suspect in Madeleine McCann case refuses to speak to British police

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Prime suspect in Madeleine McCann case refuses to speak to British police

The prime suspect in the disappearance of Madeleine McCann has refused to be interviewed by the Metropolitan Police.

German drifter Christian B, as he is known under privacy laws, became a leading person of interest following the three-year-old British girl’s disappearance from a holiday resort in Portugal in 2007.

He is expected to be released from a jail in Germany as soon as Wednesday, at the end of a sentence for raping an elderly woman in Praia da Luz in 2005.

The Met said it sent an “international letter of request” to the 49-year-old for him to speak with them – but he rejected it.

Madeleine vanished shortly after she was left sleeping by her parents, Kate and Gerry McCann, who went for dinner in a nearby restaurant in Praia da Luz.

The search for the British toddler has gone on for 18 years
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The search for the British toddler has gone on for 18 years

The Met said Christian B remains a suspect in its own investigation – with Portuguese and German authorities also probing Madeleine’s disappearance.

He has previously denied any involvement.

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Detective Chief Inspector Mark Cranwell, a senior investigating officer, said the force will “continue to pursue any viable lines of inquiry” in the absence of an interview with Christian B.

He said: “For a number of years we have worked closely with our policing colleagues in Germany and Portugal to investigate the disappearance of Madeleine McCann and support Madeleine’s family to understand what happened…

“We have requested an interview with this German suspect but, for legal reasons, this can only be done via an International Letter of Request which has been submitted.

“It was subsequently refused by the suspect. In the absence of an interview, we will nevertheless continue to pursue any viable lines of inquiry.”

Madeleine was taken from her family's apartment while her parents dined in a nearby restaurant
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Madeleine was taken from her family’s apartment while her parents dined in a nearby restaurant

In June, a hit-and-run theory emerged in connection with Madeleine’s death.

But her mother, Kate, has long dismissed the suggestion her daughter managed to get out of the apartment alone.

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Sky’s Martin Brunt investigates the hit-and-run theory in the case of Madeleine McCann

A number of searches have been carried out by German, Portuguese and British authorities since her disappearance – with the latest taking place near the Portuguese municipality of Lagos in June.

In 2023, investigators carried out searches near the Barragem do Arade reservoir, about 30 miles from Praia da Luz.

Christian B spent time in the area between 2000 and 2017 and had photographs and videos of himself near the reservoir.

In October last year, the suspect was cleared by a German court of unrelated sexual offences, alleged to have taken place in Portugal between 2000 and 2017.

The total funding given to the Met’s investigation, titled Operation Grange, has been more than £13.2m since 2011 after a further £108,000 was secured from the government in April.

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