It’s hard to imagine how the UK could be doing less to prepare for war
The government has no national plan for the defence of the UK or the mobilisation of its people and industry in a war despite renewed threats of conflict, Sky News has learnt.
Officials are now starting to develop a cross-government “national defence plan”, it can be revealed.
Dr Keith Dear, a former RAF intelligence officer and former adviser on national security, science and technology to the prime minister, argues below that it is reasonable for the public to assume there are detailed plans for any anticipated conflicts.
Keith Dear
The US secretary of state warns we are “moving from a post-war to a pre-war world” and that “in five years’ time we could be looking at multiple theatres involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea”.
The chief of the general staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders tell us that we are the “pre-war generation”.
The public might reasonably expect, therefore, that there are detailed plans, regularly refreshed, which would ensure we are prepared in advance for these anticipated conflicts, expected to be dramatically larger and more deadly than anything fought in recent memory – wars we might lose.
Surely, government departments, the Ministry of Defence, the Home Office, the intelligence agencies and our armed forces have a plan to know what to do when it starts, are structured according to the requirements, and can respond quickly?
Such plans are essential not only to avoid scrambling disorder and early defeats but also so that our adversaries, awed by our preparedness, are deterred from fighting in the first place.
The problem is, there is no plan.
We used to have one. Maintained by the government until the early 2000s, the central Government War Book sensibly detailed plans for the continuity of government in the event of war and a possible nuclear exchange.
It was needed so those of us who survived didn’t awake to anarchy.
The book also contained essential plans for mobilising the country in response to the imminent threat and outbreak of conventional non-nuclear war.
Pic: National Archives
To this central Government War Book, a whole series of subordinate war books were developed and maintained by all departments – most obviously the Ministry of Defence, Home Office and Foreign Office – but even the BBC had a War Book plan to sustain broadcast communications to an anxious public.
These were not abstract and vague, but planned against the specific, anticipatable wars we might face.
Today, there are no such plans.
The Government War Book was developed by the first modern pre-war generation – those living in the years preceding 1918 – under the leadership of ex-Royal Marine and first cabinet secretary Maurice Hankey.
The War Book was interdepartmental, and detailed what needed to be done, where, and by whom, both in preparing for war should we reach the “precautionary stage”, and upon its outbreak the “war stage”.
A copy of the Ministry of Defence’s 1963 War Book in the National Archives shows it to be detailed, and comprehensive, referencing multiple tightly coordinated, supporting plans across the government and beyond.
In 1935, the last pre-war generation also worried war might come in five years. Consequently, our government then began to refresh the War Book in earnest.
Concurrently in 1935, the UK began building its military, and military-industrial preparedness.
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For example, Lord Weir, the Scottish industrialist, was appointed to oversee a plan he had earlier proposed: building “shadow factories” adjacent to automotive factories, ready to manufacture aircraft at scale when war broke out.
The government thought deeper too, considering the need to be able to manufacture the machine tools on which factories would themselves depend, and those that could automate elements of manufacturing to speed up the rearmament effort and free up people for other tasks in the war effort, investing public funds accordingly.
The preparation was such that, after some dithering, on 23 August 1939, the government began to implement the pre-war “precautionary stage” of the plan.
Within a week, by 31 August, almost all the precautionary stage measures had been actioned. The War stage was actioned with the declaration of war a day later.
Today’s pre-war generation has had two warnings: first from COVID, and then from Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine.
The government’s response to the pandemic, where there was no plan worthy of the name, and mostly chaos for months, allows us to imagine what it would be like if war were to come without a plan to mobilise for it and to fight it.
Similarly, our inability to supply anything like enough munitions or weapons to Ukraine, shows also how hollowed out we have become by buying and building armed forces to no coherent war-fighting plan. Weapons without ammunition are useless. And we can’t know if we have the right weapons, either.
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If the secretary of state’s warnings of war sound alarmist, consider this: the director of the CIA suggests China seeks to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan from 2027.
The chair of the US House Select Committee says that 2027 may be the end, not the beginning of the window for when an attack on Taiwan is most likely.
A leaked internal memo suggests at least one four-star general in the US Air Force expects a war with China in 2025. In Europe, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas believes that Russia may threaten NATO‘s borders within three years.
Sweden’s civil defence minister and commander-in-chief warns Sweden must prepare for war now.
Even in what was until recently a deeply pacifist Japan, over 86% of citizens polled believe their country may have to go to war, while their government has doubled its defence budget.
The government would say there is a plan. Whitehall lists resilience frameworks, alert systems, risk registers and regular meetings.
What these things have in common is none of them amount to anything Hankey, or any reasonable observer, would regard as a plan – explaining what we think could happen, and specifically who needs to do what, when, to respond effectively.
The long disaggregated, disconnected nature of the various government artefacts speak of their own weakness, with commitments to what we will have done by 2030 and beyond. Not a plan for how to respond if X or Y happened tomorrow.
If we are five years from war, it is worth contemplating Lord Weir’s question, posed to the last pre-war generation in 1935: “Are we doing all we ought to anticipate by proper planning and arrangement the grave delays which were the feature of our almost fatal unpreparedness in 1914?”
Today, there is no plan. It is hard to imagine how we could be doing less.
Davina McCall has said her short-term memory is “a bit remiss” as she recovers from brain tumour surgery.
Speaking from her bed, the visibly emotional TV presenter posted a short video updating her Instagram followers on her condition, saying it had been a “mad” time.
She expressed an “enormous heartfelt thank you” to people who had messaged her after she revealed this month she had a benign brain tumour, a colloid cyst, which she described as “very rare”.
Looking bright, but with a visibly bruised left eye, McCall said: “My short-term memory is a bit remiss.
“But that is something I can work on, so I’m really happy about that. I’m writing everything down, to keep myself feeling safe.”
She added: “It’s been mad, and it’s just really nice to be back home, I’m on the other side.”
In a message posted with the video, she reiterated her thanks for all the support she has received, adding: “Had a great night’s sleep in my own bed. Have a couple of sleeps during the day which keeps my brain clear… Slowly, slowly…”
When she first shared her diagnosis, she said chances of having it were “three in a million” and that she had discovered it several months previously after a company offered her a health scan in return for giving a menopause talk.
The 57-year-old star said support from her fans had “meant the world”.
She said she was being “brilliantly looked after” by her partner, hairdresser Michael Douglas, and her stepmother, Gabby, who she calls mum.
Becoming tearful, the presenter said: “I’d quickly like to say big up the stepmums. I don’t really say thank you to Gabby enough. She’s been an amazing rock my whole life.”
McCall was estranged from her birth mother, Florence McCall, who died in 2008.
McCall with 2002 Big Brother winner Kate Lawler. Pic: Rex Features
With a catch in her voice, McCall went on: “I’ve got a massive dose of vitamin G – I’m just really grateful. I’ve always been really lucky in my life, but I feel unbelievably grateful right now. So, thanks for everything, all of you.
“I’m on the mend, I’m resting and sleeping loads and I feel really good. I’m just very lucky.”
Stars including presenter Alison Hammond, singer Craig David and radio host Zoe Ball quickly shared their delight at the positive update.
McCall rose to fame presenting on MTV in the mid-1990s, and later on Channel 4’s Streetmate, before becoming a household name as the host of Big Brother from 2000 to 2010.
McCall with her MBE, alongside her partner Michael Douglas and her daughter Holly Robertson. Pic: PA
She’s gone on to present programmes across the networks, the most recent being ITV dating show My Mum, Your Dad.
Last year, McCall was appointed Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE) in the 2023 Birthday Honours for services to broadcasting.
Married twice, McCall has three children, two daughters and a son, with her second husband, presenter Matthew Robertson.
She has lived with Douglas since 2022, and they present a weekly lifestyle podcast together, Making The Cut.
UK
UK weather: How long will rainy and windy conditions last – and is another storm already on the way?
Storm Bert continues to cause chaos in the UK, but just how long is heavy rain and wind expected to batter the country?
The Met Office says Storm Bert will start to “slowly pull away” from the UK on Monday, meaning an unsettled start to the day.
A yellow weather warning remains in place for northern parts of Scotland.
It warns of heavy downpours, especially over higher ground, where accumulations of 50-70mm are expected. The warning is in place until midnight.
Storm Bert latest: Follow live updates
In central Scotland, wind speeds of 50-60mph are likely, and gusts up to 70mph could be felt near the coast and on exposed bridges.
Met Office chief meteorologist Andy Page said that while the risk of snowfall had now diminished, rainfall would “affect much of the UK”.
Frequent showers are expected in Northern Ireland, northern England, Wales and the West Country, with the heaviest expected in southwestern parts of England and South Wales.
Mr Page said weather warnings “could still be amended” and possibly at short notice, and urged people to “keep up to date with the very latest forecast”.
Sky News meteorologist Christopher England warns there could be a risk of hail and thunder in northern Scotland, at the start of the week.
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Storm Bert causes flooding in Wales
As of Monday morning, there were hundreds of flood warnings and alerts in place. Three of those – two in Wales and one in England – were “severe warnings”.
A further 160 flood warnings and more than 200 flood alerts were issued by the Environment Agency in England, and eight flood warnings and 23 flood alerts in place in Wales at the time of writing.
Bert to clear UK by Tuesday
By Tuesday, Storm Bert will finally clear the UK, the Met Office said, bringing with it “quieter weather for many”.
However, parts of the country may not be without rain or wind for long, as the forecaster says strong gusts and rainfall could start again on Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
Check the forecast in your area
“How long the more settled conditions last is uncertain, with rain probably returning to westernmost areas at least by the end of the week,” the Met Office website says.
Chris England adds: “Wednesday will bring strong winds and a spell of heavy rain across the south, while the north looks mostly fine after a frosty and foggy start in places.
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Woman loses umbrella to Storm Bert
“Thursday looks cool again, but mostly fine. Friday will be milder, with outbreaks of rain likely over Ireland, Northern Ireland and north-west Scotland.”
He says going into the weekend, Saturday “looks cloudy and breezy in the north and west, with a little rain possible at times”.
When could the next named storm be?
Storm Bert was the second named storm of the season after Storm Ashley brought similar wet and windy conditions towards the end of October.
Although it cannot be known for sure when the next storm will be, the Met Office already knows it will be referred to as Storm Conall. The forecaster names storms in alphabetical order.
It says it only names a storm when it has the “potential to cause disruption or damage which could result in an amber or red warning” and according to its long range forecast, this could be as soon as next month.
It says that between 9 and 23 December, “there are signs” there will be wetter and windier interludes with a risk of snow, adding: “These conditions look more likely to dominate towards the middle of December.”
Whether this will be strong enough for a storm to be named remains unknown.
Microsoft has said it is “investigating an issue” after users reported problems with Outlook and Teams.
In a post on X, Microsoft 365 Status said: “We’re investigating an issue impacting users attempting to access Exchange Online or functionality within Microsoft Teams calendar.”
Microsoft Exchange Online is a platform for business communication that has a mail server and cloud apps for email, contacts, and calendars.
Down Detector, a website that tracks outages, said problems started at approximately 8am on Monday morning.
It said 87% of reported problems involved Outlook, when the email application is accessed through the web.
Microsoft error message appearing on Outlook
Other reported problems, according to Down Detector, included connection to the server and logging in.
Users from the UK and around, Europe took to social media to report they were having problems accessing the platform.
One user wrote: “When you need to check an important mail, but #outlook decides to not work…”
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While another added: “Here in Belgium mainly issues with tracking of e-mail in Dynamics 365. Inbound and outbound in Outlook still work.”
Microsoft directed affected users to its admin centre, a page that is intended for those who have access to business networks and other professionals who manage IT networks. The page requires a login.
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