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The government has no national plan for the defence of the UK or the mobilisation of its people and industry in a war despite renewed threats of conflict, Sky News has learnt.

Officials are now starting to develop a cross-government “national defence plan”, it can be revealed.

Dr Keith Dear, a former RAF intelligence officer and former adviser on national security, science and technology to the prime minister, argues below that it is reasonable for the public to assume there are detailed plans for any anticipated conflicts.

Keith Dear
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Keith Dear

The US secretary of state warns we are “moving from a post-war to a pre-war world” and that “in five years’ time we could be looking at multiple theatres involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea”.

The chief of the general staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders tell us that we are the “pre-war generation”.

The public might reasonably expect, therefore, that there are detailed plans, regularly refreshed, which would ensure we are prepared in advance for these anticipated conflicts, expected to be dramatically larger and more deadly than anything fought in recent memory – wars we might lose.

Surely, government departments, the Ministry of Defence, the Home Office, the intelligence agencies and our armed forces have a plan to know what to do when it starts, are structured according to the requirements, and can respond quickly?

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Such plans are essential not only to avoid scrambling disorder and early defeats but also so that our adversaries, awed by our preparedness, are deterred from fighting in the first place.

The problem is, there is no plan.

We used to have one. Maintained by the government until the early 2000s, the central Government War Book sensibly detailed plans for the continuity of government in the event of war and a possible nuclear exchange.

It was needed so those of us who survived didn’t awake to anarchy.

The book also contained essential plans for mobilising the country in response to the imminent threat and outbreak of conventional non-nuclear war.

Pic: National Archives
Image:
Pic: National Archives

To this central Government War Book, a whole series of subordinate war books were developed and maintained by all departments – most obviously the Ministry of Defence, Home Office and Foreign Office – but even the BBC had a War Book plan to sustain broadcast communications to an anxious public.

These were not abstract and vague, but planned against the specific, anticipatable wars we might face.

Today, there are no such plans.

The Government War Book was developed by the first modern pre-war generation – those living in the years preceding 1918 – under the leadership of ex-Royal Marine and first cabinet secretary Maurice Hankey.

The War Book was interdepartmental, and detailed what needed to be done, where, and by whom, both in preparing for war should we reach the “precautionary stage”, and upon its outbreak the “war stage”.

A copy of the Ministry of Defence’s 1963 War Book in the National Archives shows it to be detailed, and comprehensive, referencing multiple tightly coordinated, supporting plans across the government and beyond.

In 1935, the last pre-war generation also worried war might come in five years. Consequently, our government then began to refresh the War Book in earnest.

Concurrently in 1935, the UK began building its military, and military-industrial preparedness.

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For example, Lord Weir, the Scottish industrialist, was appointed to oversee a plan he had earlier proposed: building “shadow factories” adjacent to automotive factories, ready to manufacture aircraft at scale when war broke out.

The government thought deeper too, considering the need to be able to manufacture the machine tools on which factories would themselves depend, and those that could automate elements of manufacturing to speed up the rearmament effort and free up people for other tasks in the war effort, investing public funds accordingly.

The preparation was such that, after some dithering, on 23 August 1939, the government began to implement the pre-war “precautionary stage” of the plan.

Within a week, by 31 August, almost all the precautionary stage measures had been actioned. The War stage was actioned with the declaration of war a day later.

Today’s pre-war generation has had two warnings: first from COVID, and then from Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine.

The government’s response to the pandemic, where there was no plan worthy of the name, and mostly chaos for months, allows us to imagine what it would be like if war were to come without a plan to mobilise for it and to fight it.

Similarly, our inability to supply anything like enough munitions or weapons to Ukraine, shows also how hollowed out we have become by buying and building armed forces to no coherent war-fighting plan. Weapons without ammunition are useless. And we can’t know if we have the right weapons, either.

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If the secretary of state’s warnings of war sound alarmist, consider this: the director of the CIA suggests China seeks to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan from 2027.

The chair of the US House Select Committee says that 2027 may be the end, not the beginning of the window for when an attack on Taiwan is most likely.

A leaked internal memo suggests at least one four-star general in the US Air Force expects a war with China in 2025. In Europe, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas believes that Russia may threaten NATO‘s borders within three years.

Sweden’s civil defence minister and commander-in-chief warns Sweden must prepare for war now.

Even in what was until recently a deeply pacifist Japan, over 86% of citizens polled believe their country may have to go to war, while their government has doubled its defence budget.

The government would say there is a plan. Whitehall lists resilience frameworks, alert systems, risk registers and regular meetings.

What these things have in common is none of them amount to anything Hankey, or any reasonable observer, would regard as a plan – explaining what we think could happen, and specifically who needs to do what, when, to respond effectively.

The long disaggregated, disconnected nature of the various government artefacts speak of their own weakness, with commitments to what we will have done by 2030 and beyond. Not a plan for how to respond if X or Y happened tomorrow.

If we are five years from war, it is worth contemplating Lord Weir’s question, posed to the last pre-war generation in 1935: “Are we doing all we ought to anticipate by proper planning and arrangement the grave delays which were the feature of our almost fatal unpreparedness in 1914?”

Today, there is no plan. It is hard to imagine how we could be doing less.

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Craig and Lindsay Foreman: British couple detained in Iran are named – as family ‘significantly concerned’

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Craig and Lindsay Foreman: British couple detained in Iran are named - as family 'significantly concerned'

A British couple who have been detained in Iran have been named by their family as Craig and Lindsay Foreman.

The family said they are “significantly concerned” by the “distressing situation”.

According to Ms Foreman’s social media, the couple were on a motorbiking trip across the globe to Australia as part of a positive psychology mission.

On 30 December, she posted about how they were about to face “one of the most challenging” parts of their trip, Iran and Pakistan.

Lindsay Foreman (who along with husband Craig) is being detained in Kerman, Iran. Source: family handout via FCDO
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Lindsay Foreman. Pic: Family handout via FCDO

Craig Foreman (who along with wife Lindsay) are being detained in Kerman, Iran. Source: family handout via FCDO
Image:
Craig Foreman. Pic: Family handout via FCDO

The post reads: “Despite the advice of friends, family, and the FCDO (which strongly advises against travel to Iran for British nationals), we’ve chosen to keep moving forward.

“Why? Because we believe that, no matter where you are in the world, most people are good, kind humans striving for a meaningful life.

“Yes, we’re aware of the risks. But we also know the rewards of meeting incredible people, hearing their stories, and seeing the breathtaking landscapes of these regions could far outweigh the fear.”

A screenshot from Ms Foreman's post from Armenia. Pic: Instagram/Lindsay Foreman
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A screenshot from Ms Foreman’s post in Armenia, from where they crossed into Iran. Pic: Instagram/Lindsay Foreman

A screenshot from Ms Foreman's post from Armenia.. Pic: Instagram/Lindsay Foreman
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Ms Foreman appears in her post from Armenia. Pic: Instagram/Lindsay Foreman

In a statement, the couple’s family expressed their concern and said they were engaging with the UK government.

“We would like to take this opportunity to address the distressing situation concerning Craig and Lindsay Foreman who are currently being detained in Kerman, Iran,” they said.

“This unexpected turn of events has caused significant concern for our entire family, and we are deeply focused on ensuring their safety and wellbeing during this trying time.

“We are actively engaging with the British government and relevant authorities, working diligently to navigate the complexities of this matter. The family are united in our determination to secure their safe return.

“We truly appreciate the outpouring of support from friends, family, and the community, which has provided us with strength and encouragement as we face this ordeal.”

They added: “Thank you for your understanding, compassion, and continued support.”

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A Foreign Office spokesperson earlier said: “We are providing consular assistance to two British nationals detained in Iran and are in contact with the local authorities.”

Iranian state media said on Wednesday that a man and woman were in custody in Iran’s southeastern city of Kerman on security-related charges.

The Foreign Office warns that people are at risk of “arrest, detention and a death sentence” if they travel to Iran.

Iran has previously arrested and held British citizens for extended periods of time.

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and Anoosheh Ashoori, who are dual British-Iranian citizens, were released in March 2022 after years held captive in Iran.

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Woman named in ‘no body’ murder investigation in Cambridgeshire

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Woman named in 'no body' murder investigation in Cambridgeshire

Police have named a missing woman at the centre of a “no-body” murder investigation as 54-year-old Julie Buckley.

Ms Buckley, from the Fenlands village of Christchurch, Cambridgeshire, hasn’t been seen since late January.

A 47-year-old man has been arrested on suspicion of her murder.

Police have been continuing to search for Ms Buckley, as they try to find out why she is missing.

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“We are trying to piece together Julie’s movements before she disappeared so I would appeal for anyone who has seen her in the past few weeks to get in touch,” said Detective Inspector Richard Stott from the Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire Major Crime Unit.

“We know she has links to places in the surrounding area including March, Manea, and Chatteris so I would urge people who live in those areas to consider if they have information that could be of use to our inquiry.

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“We are in touch with family of Julie and specially trained officers are keeping them up to date on the police inquiry at this very difficult time.

“Although we have always wanted to find Julie alive, the circumstances suggest she is likely to have come to serious harm, so we continue to treat her disappearance as murder.”

Anyone with information can contact the police online or call 101 and quote Operation Dragonfish.

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Idris Elba on the power of football – and how it can help tackle knife crime

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Idris Elba on the power of football - and how it can help tackle knife crime

Idris Elba hopes providing more access to football in communities will deter youngsters from knife crime and he urged other industries to follow the Premier League’s lead.

The actor dropped in on a session run by the West Ham Foundation – part of the league’s Kicks programme supporting youngsters at risk of anti-social behaviour and youth violence by providing free weekly football.

While it could offer pathways in the sport – including coaching the next generation – Elba sees how it provides the toolset for personal development in life more broadly.

“Football has an amazing aggregated power,” Elba told Sky News. “I think that is a really good sort of example for other industries to think about mentorship programmes.

“Apprenticeship programmes that can just give young people (opportunities) because not every kid wants to play football.

“But at least we’re seeing the Premier League do something. The big tech companies, motor industry companies should say, ‘Hey, what can we do with the young people? What are their interests?'”

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The Premier League has invested more than £90m in the Kicks programme across two decades with a particular focus on reducing violent behaviour.

The need for such a scheme was reinforced by the fatal stabbings of 10 teenagers in London last year being followed by a 14-year-old’s killing in the first week of 2025.

Idris Elba speaking about the Premier League's work to tackle knife crime
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Elba speaking about the Premier League’s work to tackle knife crime


It is a year since Elba launched his own campaign, Don’t Stop Your Future, to call for greater urgency in addressing the knife crime crisis.

“Where there are young people aggregating around football, around teams, should we be messaging that knife crime is no good? Absolutely. Yes,” Elba said. “We should be messaging that wherever you can.

“Just listen to a young person once. If you’ve never asked them what their feelings are about knife crime, about what they want to do with their lives, do it. That’s one thing… The answer is up to you, but ultimately, you’re beginning the conversation.”

It was a conversation Elba had earlier this week in Dagenham with young players and coaches alongside a roundtable with community leaders impacted by knife crime.

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From September 2024: ‘Talk is good, action is more important’

“I absolutely feel that the more we talk, we can do about this, the better,” Elba said.

“Are there mechanisms where football can play a part in a larger scale? Absolutely. Let’s hope that we can all put our thinking caps on.”

That is working – as the Premier League does – with police to confront the knife crime epidemic.

“It feels probably to many that not enough is being done,” Met Police Commander Stephen Clayman, the national policing lead for knife crime, told Sky News pitchside at the Kicks programme.

“But actually, you see things like this. You only need to change the direction of a number of people. You’ve already made a huge difference.

“What you need is more of this, more investment in youth services, in these types of things, and then you start making the difference.”

Commander Stephen Clayman
Image:
Met Commander Stephen Clayman

But can football really make communities safer by providing access to football? Or is it for authorities to search for more impactful interventions – by increasing the number of officers on the beat?

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“Having more cops can make a difference in some areas for enforcement, but it’s not just about enforcement,” Commander Clayman said.

You’re only going to really tackle this if you get to the root cause of why someone feels they have to pick up a knife in the first place.

“That’s not going to be the police solving that. That’s going to be people with some of the sort of coaches and mentors here that will do that and all the other services around. That’s what will make the real difference over time. It’s never going to be a quick fix.”

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From January: Britain’s knife crime epidemic

But football is trying to help in any way it can to prevent the tragedies that trouble West Ham captain Jarrod Bowen.

“Things like this really help people get off the streets and really do something with their life and make a real powerful change – I think it’s such a really important thing,” he said in an interview.

“It teaches them good habits and it teaches them a lot of different things as well. They spoke about the mental side of football and the technical side also.

“I think it also teaches about social skills. You have to play as a team, people making friendships here as well. So, I think it’s a really powerful positive thing.”

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