It’s hard to imagine how the UK could be doing less to prepare for war

Published

1 year ago

April 3, 2024

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The government has no national plan for the defence of the UK or the mobilisation of its people and industry in a war despite renewed threats of conflict, Sky News has learnt.

Officials are now starting to develop a cross-government “national defence plan”, it can be revealed.

Dr Keith Dear, a former RAF intelligence officer and former adviser on national security, science and technology to the prime minister, argues below that it is reasonable for the public to assume there are detailed plans for any anticipated conflicts.

The US secretary of state warns we are “moving from a post-war to a pre-war world” and that “in five years’ time we could be looking at multiple theatres involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea”.

The chief of the general staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders tell us that we are the “pre-war generation”.

The public might reasonably expect, therefore, that there are detailed plans, regularly refreshed, which would ensure we are prepared in advance for these anticipated conflicts, expected to be dramatically larger and more deadly than anything fought in recent memory – wars we might lose.

Surely, government departments, the Ministry of Defence, the Home Office, the intelligence agencies and our armed forces have a plan to know what to do when it starts, are structured according to the requirements, and can respond quickly?

Such plans are essential not only to avoid scrambling disorder and early defeats but also so that our adversaries, awed by our preparedness, are deterred from fighting in the first place.

The problem is, there is no plan.

We used to have one. Maintained by the government until the early 2000s, the central Government War Book sensibly detailed plans for the continuity of government in the event of war and a possible nuclear exchange.

It was needed so those of us who survived didn’t awake to anarchy.

The book also contained essential plans for mobilising the country in response to the imminent threat and outbreak of conventional non-nuclear war.

To this central Government War Book, a whole series of subordinate war books were developed and maintained by all departments – most obviously the Ministry of Defence, Home Office and Foreign Office – but even the BBC had a War Book plan to sustain broadcast communications to an anxious public.

These were not abstract and vague, but planned against the specific, anticipatable wars we might face.

Today, there are no such plans.

The Government War Book was developed by the first modern pre-war generation – those living in the years preceding 1918 – under the leadership of ex-Royal Marine and first cabinet secretary Maurice Hankey.

The War Book was interdepartmental, and detailed what needed to be done, where, and by whom, both in preparing for war should we reach the “precautionary stage”, and upon its outbreak the “war stage”.

A copy of the Ministry of Defence’s 1963 War Book in the National Archives shows it to be detailed, and comprehensive, referencing multiple tightly coordinated, supporting plans across the government and beyond.

In 1935, the last pre-war generation also worried war might come in five years. Consequently, our government then began to refresh the War Book in earnest.

Concurrently in 1935, the UK began building its military, and military-industrial preparedness.

For example, Lord Weir, the Scottish industrialist, was appointed to oversee a plan he had earlier proposed: building “shadow factories” adjacent to automotive factories, ready to manufacture aircraft at scale when war broke out.

The government thought deeper too, considering the need to be able to manufacture the machine tools on which factories would themselves depend, and those that could automate elements of manufacturing to speed up the rearmament effort and free up people for other tasks in the war effort, investing public funds accordingly.

The preparation was such that, after some dithering, on 23 August 1939, the government began to implement the pre-war “precautionary stage” of the plan.

Within a week, by 31 August, almost all the precautionary stage measures had been actioned. The War stage was actioned with the declaration of war a day later.

Today’s pre-war generation has had two warnings: first from COVID, and then from Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine.

The government’s response to the pandemic, where there was no plan worthy of the name, and mostly chaos for months, allows us to imagine what it would be like if war were to come without a plan to mobilise for it and to fight it.

Similarly, our inability to supply anything like enough munitions or weapons to Ukraine, shows also how hollowed out we have become by buying and building armed forces to no coherent war-fighting plan. Weapons without ammunition are useless. And we can’t know if we have the right weapons, either.

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If the secretary of state’s warnings of war sound alarmist, consider this: the director of the CIA suggests China seeks to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan from 2027.

The chair of the US House Select Committee says that 2027 may be the end, not the beginning of the window for when an attack on Taiwan is most likely.

A leaked internal memo suggests at least one four-star general in the US Air Force expects a war with China in 2025. In Europe, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas believes that Russia may threaten NATO‘s borders within three years.

Sweden’s civil defence minister and commander-in-chief warns Sweden must prepare for war now.

Even in what was until recently a deeply pacifist Japan, over 86% of citizens polled believe their country may have to go to war, while their government has doubled its defence budget.

The government would say there is a plan. Whitehall lists resilience frameworks, alert systems, risk registers and regular meetings.

What these things have in common is none of them amount to anything Hankey, or any reasonable observer, would regard as a plan – explaining what we think could happen, and specifically who needs to do what, when, to respond effectively.

The long disaggregated, disconnected nature of the various government artefacts speak of their own weakness, with commitments to what we will have done by 2030 and beyond. Not a plan for how to respond if X or Y happened tomorrow.

If we are five years from war, it is worth contemplating Lord Weir’s question, posed to the last pre-war generation in 1935: “Are we doing all we ought to anticipate by proper planning and arrangement the grave delays which were the feature of our almost fatal unpreparedness in 1914?”

Today, there is no plan. It is hard to imagine how we could be doing less.

UK

Amnesty International ‘deeply concerned’ as 474 arrests made at Palestine Action protest

Published

3 hours ago

August 10, 2025

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Amnesty International 'deeply concerned' as 474 arrests made at Palestine Action protest

Amnesty International says it is “deeply concerning” that police made 474 arrests during a Palestine Action demonstration in London.

Metropolitan Police said 466 were detained under the Terrorism Act for showing support for a banned group.

Eight more people were arrested for other offences, including five for assaulting officers.

The Met said it was the most arrests it’s made related to a single operation in at least the past decade.

Organiser of the event, Defend Our Juries, earlier said up to 700 people were at the event in Parliament Square and claimed police were preparing for the “largest mass arrest in their history”.

The group said those arrested included former Guantanamo Bay detainee Moazzam Begg, NHS workers, quakers and a blind wheelchair user.

Amnesty International UK’s chief executive Sacha Deshmukh said in a statement: “The protesters in Parliament Square were not inciting violence and it is entirely disproportionate to the point of absurdity to be treating them as terrorists.

“Instead of criminalising peaceful demonstrators, the government should be focusing on taking immediate and unequivocal action to put a stop to Israel’s genocide and ending any risk of UK complicity in it.”

The Met said a “significant number of people” at the event were seen “displaying placards expressing support for Palestine Action”.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “The right to protest is one we protect fiercely but this is very different from displaying support for this one specific and narrow, proscribed organisation.

“Palestine Action was proscribed based on strong security advice following serious attacks the group has committed, involving violence, significant injuries and extensive criminal damage.”

Police said those arrested had been taken to processing points in Westminster and any whose details could be confirmed were bailed on condition they didn’t attend further Palestine Action support events.

Others whose details could not be verified, possibly because they refused to give them, were taken to custody suites across London.

The protests have put a strain on authorities’ capacity to cope.

Sky News understands senior leaders in the prison service, known as “Capacity Gold”, met today to discuss how to deal with the large number of arrests as the male prison estate is close to full.

It’s understood 800 inmates were moved out of the busiest jails in and around London beforehand.

In a statement, the Metropolitan Police Federation said: “Thinking of our colleagues and wishing all assaulted officers well. Remember there are no ‘extra’ police officers – just the same ones having their days off cancelled, having to work longer shifts and being moved from other areas. Officers are emotionally and physically exhausted.”

‘We felt compelled to speak out’

The first of the arrests began just before 1pm, when a man waving a placard that read “I support Palestine Action” was stopped by police, writes Gurpreet Narwan, reporting from Parliament Square.

Officers told him he was showing support for a terrorist organisation, searched him and ushered him away.

The action soon escalated. Among the people arrested today were a number of elderly people, a blind man in a wheelchair, and a teenager.

They were protesting peacefully, with a number of people pointedly seating themselves below statues of Mahatma Gandhi and the suffragette Millicent Fawcett.

They told Sky News that they were fully expecting to be arrested but that they felt compelled to speak out and defend the right to protest.

One protester said: “I don’t think I’m a criminal. That’s not the person I am.”

However, he said he was being guided by his faith and his conscience.

Things calmed down after a few hours but there was a heavy police presence well into the afternoon and early evening.

Legislation to ban Palestine Action came into force on 5 July, making it a criminal offence to show support for the organisation, carrying a prison sentence of up to 14 years.

Defend Our Juries said earlier this week the protest would still go ahead, following several similar demonstrations since it was outlawed last month.

On Saturday, a spokesperson said: “Palestine Action and people holding cardboard signs present no danger to the public at large.”

Human rights advocates Amnesty International described the arrests of so many people under UK terrorism law as “deeply concerning”.

Another march organised by the Palestine Coalition, which is a separate group, set off from Russell Square and assembled on Whitehall.

The Met Police said one person had been arrested there for showing a placard in support of Palestine Action.

Earlier this week, three people charged as a result of illegal Palestine Action activity were named.

Jeremy Shippam, 71, of West Sussex, Judit Murray, also 71, of Surrey, and Fiona Maclean, 53, of Hackney in east London, will appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on 16 September.

The ban on Palestine Action faces a legal challenge in November after the High Court granted a full judicial review to Palestine Action co-founder Huda Ammori.

UK

‘We will send you packing’: Govt vows to deport foreign criminals immediately after sentencing

Published

7 hours ago

August 10, 2025

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'We will send you packing': Govt vows to deport foreign criminals immediately after sentencing

Foreign criminals will be deported from the UK immediately after they are sentenced, the justice secretary has said.

The law change proposed by Shabana Mahmood could save taxpayers an average of £54,000 a year per prison place.

The changes would apply to prisoners serving fixed-term “determinate” sentences.

Authorities would also retain their power not to deport a criminal but instead keep them in custody – with examples including if an offender is planning further crimes against the UK’s interests or national security.

The justice secretary’s announcement goes further than a change to the law in June – expected to come into force in September – meaning prisoners face deportation 30% into their sentence rather than the current 50%.

The government will need parliament to greenlight its proposal to bring this down to 0%.

Foreign national offenders make up around 12% of the prison population.

Ms Mahmood said: “Our message is clear – if you abuse our hospitality and break our laws, we will send you packing.”

She added: “Deportations are up under this government, and with this new law they will happen earlier than ever before.”

Almost 5,200 foreign national offenders have been deported since July 2024, a 14% increase on the 12 months prior, according to the government.

According to a Labour source, the previous Conservative government relied on prison transfer agreements with other countries to deport foreign national offenders, in deals which allow inmates to serve their custodial sentence in their “home” country.

This saw 945 prisoners sent to jails abroad between 2010 and 2023, equal to fewer than two criminals per week.

Conservative shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick said: “In Starmer’s topsy-turvy world, investors are fleeing the country in their droves while record numbers of violent and sexual offenders from abroad are put up in our prisons. It’s a farce.

“Yet again Starmer has refused to confront our broken human rights laws.

“He needs to grow a backbone and change them so we can actually deport these individuals.

“The safety of the British public is infinitely more important than the ‘rights’ of sick foreign criminals.

“If countries won’t take back their nationals, Starmer should suspend visas and foreign aid. His soft-touch approach isn’t working.”

UK

At least 200 arrests at protest in support of proscribed group Palestine Action

Published

20 hours ago

August 9, 2025

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At least 200 arrests at protest in support of proscribed group Palestine Action

Police have made 200 arrests in London after crowds turned out for a Palestine Action demonstration – despite the group being banned.

Organisers Defend Our Juries said up to 700 people were at the event in Parliament Square and claimed police were preparing for the “largest mass arrest in their history”.

The group said those arrested included former Guantanamo Bay detainee Moazzam Begg, NHS workers, quakers and a blind wheelchair user.

The Metropolitan Police said a “significant number of people” were seen “displaying placards expressing support for Palestine Action, which is a proscribed group”.

“We have now made 200 arrests in Parliament Square this afternoon,” the force wrote in a post on X.

In an earlier post, it wrote: “While many of those remaining in the square are media and onlookers, there are still people holding placards supporting Palestine Action. Officers are steadily working through the crowd making further arrests.”

Legislation to proscribe Palestine Action came into force on 5 July, making it a criminal offence to show support for the organisation, carrying a prison sentence of up to 14 years.

Defend Our Juries announced the protest would go ahead earlier this week despite the ban, following several other similar demonstrations since the proscription last month.

On Saturday, a spokesperson for the group said that “Palestine Action and people holding cardboard signs present no danger to the public at large”.

Three people have been charged as a result of illegal Palestine Action activity.

Jeremy Shippam, 71, of West Sussex, Judit Murray, also 71, of Surrey, and Fiona Maclean, 53, of Hackney in east London, will appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on 16 September.

Another march organised by the Palestine Coalition, which is a separate group, set off from Russell Square and assembled on Whitehall.

The Met Police said one person had been arrested there for showing a placard in support of the Palestine Action.

Crowds had assembled in Parliament Square by 1pm, with people seen writing “I oppose genocide, I support Palestine Action” on placards.

Many remained silent while others sang pro-Palestine chants.

A Home Office spokesperson said in a previous statement: “The Home Secretary has been clear that the proscription of Palestine Action is not about Palestine, nor does it affect the freedom to protest on Palestinian rights.

“It only applies to the specific and narrow organisation whose activities do not reflect or represent the thousands of people across the country who continue to exercise their fundamental rights to protest on different issues.”

The ban faces a legal challenge in November after the High Court granted a full judicial review to Palestine Action co-founder Huda Ammori.