
MLB Watchability Index: Which teams are the most fun to watch this season?
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior WriterApr 3, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
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Welcome to the 2024 MLB Watchability Index! As ESPN NBA writer Zach Lowe would say — and we’re stealing this idea from his annual League Pass rankings — these are NOT power rankings, but a watchability rating. Imagine you’re sitting at home on a Saturday evening and you want to watch a baseball game, but perhaps your favorite team has already played. Which teams do you most want to watch? This is that list.
We’ve created a super complex formula to score teams in seven different categories, creating a possible maximum score of 50. These categories fit into the general idea of: “What makes baseball exciting?”
First, the 10-point categories (on a scale of 1-10 points maximum):
Star power: This is based off our annual MLB Rank of the top 100 players of the season, with points rewarded on how many players a team had in the top 100 and how high they ranked.
Youth: We love young players — especially promising, young players. I looked at each team’s projected FanGraphs WAR from players in their first or second seasons in the majors.
Baserunning: The new rules helped bring speed back into the game last season with more stolen bases, creating a more exciting — and watchable — version of baseball. I used FanGraphs’ team baserunning metric (which factors in stolen bases and running the bases) from last season, making some adjustments for major roster changes or additions.
And then there are the 5-point categories (on a scale of 1-5 points maximum):
4-and 5-star catches: The Baseball Savant site lists catch probability for outfielders, including the number of 4-star plays (catch probability of 26-50%) and 5-star plays (probability of 0-25%). Even 4-star catches are pretty rare. Ronald Acuna Jr., for example, had no 4-star catches last season. I looked at last year’s totals and again made estimated adjustments as necessary.
425-plus foot home runs: Long home runs are extra fun, so I looked at last year’s totals as a baseline. The league leader was somebody who signed a very large contract in the offseason.
Minutia: Ballpark, uniforms, mascots, unintentional comedy, etc. It’s more pleasing to watch a game from Wrigley than, say, Tropicana Field.
Bonus section: Anything else I want to add for a team at my whim, up to a maximum of five points.
Let’s dive right into it, starting with the lowest-scoring teams — i.e. the least watchable — to the highest-scoring teams that you should drop everything to sit down and watch. (The point total is next to each team’s name.)
Star power: 1 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 4.5 | Catches: 1 | 425+: 1 | Minutia: 2
Bonus: 1, for the hope of seeing James Wood and Dylan Crews later in the season
This is a team trying to play Jesse Winker in left field and 32-year-old Eddie Rosario in center field — and you can guess how that’s going to work out. The youth score is surprisingly low and maybe a little unfair, but FanGraphs isn’t projecting much playing time or value for Wood or Crews and guys like Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore have been up long enough that they’re now in the unofficial post-youth phase of their careers. The Presidents Race is fun, though. Go Teddy!
Star power: 2 | Youth: 1 | Baserunning: 2 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 2 | Minutia: 1
Bonus: 1, for the new “campfire milkshake” concession item
I’m pretty sure Luis Robert Jr. accounts for most of these points, from 4-star catches to speed on the bases to long home runs. The White Sox have done a nice job improving what was a weak farm system just a couple of years ago, but only Colson Montgomery is likely to make much of a contribution this season, so this rebuild is filled with older players. Unfortunately, “veteran leadership” does not score well in watchability.
Star power: 3 | Youth: 2.5 | Baserunning: 1 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutia: 2
Bonus: 0.5, for all the times announcers will call Luis Arraez a “professional hitter”
The Marlins were crushed with pitching injuries in spring training, including Eury Perez, who accounted for a chunk of the above points with both star power (No. 67 in MLB Rank) and youth. That won’t help their viewing attractiveness, and neither do indoor games with empty seats. The Marlins are also not a young team — and not a fast one either, with the likes of Josh Bell, Jake Burger and Arraez clogging up the bases. There could also be some unintentional comedy with the infield defense. However, I do like their City Connect jerseys.
Star power: 1 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 1 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 4 | Minutia: 2
Bonus: 2: +1 for Brenton Doyle‘s arm, +1 for the occasional Coors Field football score
I ran this list by a former Rockies fan who has been disillusioned by the team’s failures in recent years and his comment: “Too high.” Perhaps he is looking at Doyle’s batting average and not his defense! I mean, that’s understandable as Doyle’s 52 OPS+ was the seventh lowest since 1920 for an outfielder with at least 400 plate appearances. He won a Gold Glove as a rookie last season and simultaneously possesses perhaps the best range of any center fielder and the best throwing arm. I mean, we should probably subtract a point for his offense and maybe another point for the Rockies playing Charlie Blackmon in right field, but the point is Doyle is a human highlight film in center field.
Note as well: How were the Rockies the worst baserunning team in the majors a year ago? Playing in the large expanse of Coors Field should make it easy to go from first to third on base hits at will. But not for this team.
Star power: 1 | Youth: 6 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutia: 1
Bonus: 2: +1 for fans protesting terrible ownership, +1 for those sweet Kelly green jerseys
OK, the A’s rank high in the youth category because they have a lot of it — somebody has to play and it sure isn’t going to be veterans making more than the league minimum (the A’s joined the Rockies and Nationals as the only teams with no players in our top 100). They had potential in the baserunning category, but they just sent speedster Esteury Ruiz down to the minors. Because, you know, why give the fans somebody exciting to watch?
Star power: 2 | Youth: 5 | Baserunning: 2.5 | Catches: 1 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutia: 2
Bonus: 3: +1 for Mike Trout being Mike Trout, +1 for the inevitable showdown between manager Ron Washington and Anthony Rendon, +1 for Reid Detmers‘ curveball
Look, the Angels weren’t all that interesting even when they had Shohei Ohtani, so they sure aren’t going to be more interesting without him. I’ve always enjoyed watching games from Anaheim (and they do always draw well) and, hey, Trout just hit a 473-foot home run on Monday. This might be underrating the potential for the Angels’ season to go completely haywire, however — in a good or bad way, I have no idea. After all, Washington called a team meeting after two games as the team began the season with 11-3 and 13-4 losses. (And it worked: The Angels won their next two games.)
Star power: 2 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 4 | Minutia: 3
Bonus: 2: +1 for Jhoan Duran‘s fastball velocity, +1 for Edouard Julien being French-Canadian (he spoke no English when he started in college Auburn)
This is our first reminder that this index is different — and should be different — from our weekly Power Rankings: The Twins, after all, are favored to repeat as American League Central champions. They scored low in all three of the 10-point categories, however, as their only two players in the top 100 were Pablo Lopez at No. 55 and Carlos Correa at No. 78. Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton certainly have top-100 potential, but the injury risk bothered our voters and Lewis has unfortunately already landed on the injured list. They do have one of the best uniform sets in the majors, though.
Star power: 4 | Youth: 1 | Baserunning: 1.5 | Catches: 5 | 425+: 1.5 | Minutia: 3
Bonus: 3: +1 for Davis Schneider‘s mustache + goggles combo, +1 for play-by-play announcer Dan Shulman, +1 for Kevin Gausman‘s splitter
With Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho in the outfield, it’s no surprise that the Blue Jays rank best in the 4-star and 5-star catch category, but they had just three players in the top 100 (Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Gausman) and don’t appear to have much potential impact youth unless pitcher Ricky Tiedemann gets called up. They also fared poorly in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric and outside of Guerrero, they don’t hit many big blasts. Indeed, looking at this lineup and considering the offense was middle of the pack last season, the Jays might struggle to score runs.
Star power: 3 | Youth: 4.5 | Baserunning: 4 | Catches: 1 | 425+: 1.5 | Minutia: 4
Bonus: 1.5: +1 for Logan Webb‘s sinker, +0.5 for the beer shower given to Jung Hoo Lee after his first home run
The Giants’ offseason additions make them a lot more intriguing than they were a season ago: reigning National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell, center fielder Lee, Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman and DH Jorge Soler. Snell and Chapman cracked the top 100 alongside Webb (runner-up to Snell) and the early returns on Lee have been positive — we’ll see if he can improve the team’s lackluster catch rating. Rookie Kyle Harrison has a chance to give the Giants one of the best pitching trios in the league. They also rate well in minutia: great ballpark, great announcers, classic uniforms.
Star power: 3.5 | Youth: 3.5 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 3.5 | Minutia: 4
Bonus: 1.5: +1 for Masyn Winn‘s arm, +0.5 for players going wild when manager Oli Marmol got a two-year extension and the ensuing uproar every time a bullpen decision backfires
The Cardinals are sort of in no-man’s-land right now: They have a couple of declining superstars in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt (44th and 47th in our top 100) and some intriguing young players in Jordan Walker and Winn, but nobody clearly in their prime. If only they could combine Walker’s offensive potential with Winn’s defense. The Cardinals don’t fare very well in baserunning or fantastic catches — and Tommy Edman, the best in both categories, is currently out with a wrist issue. Victor Scott II is a speedster who made the Opening Day roster after stealing 94 bases in the minors, but he’s probably around only until Edman or Lars Nootbaar return.
Star power: 2 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 5.5 | Catches: 4 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutia: 3
Bonus: 2.5: +1 for knowing Bobby Witt Jr. will be a Royal for the long term, +1 for Cole Ragans‘ changeup and potential to be the best KC starter since Kevin Appier, +0.5 for Salvador Perez
The Royals have been awful since 2018 — three 100-loss seasons since then, including 106 in 2023. That means the rebuild hasn’t just been slow, it hasn’t made any progress. Believing they can contend in a weak AL Central, the Royals went out and signed some veteran starters. Still, it’s a big leap from 56 wins to 86. Anyway, Witt is worth the price of admission all by himself, Ragans might be a potential ace and Kyle Isbel apparently makes a lot of great plays in the outfield. Plus, the fountains at Kauffman Stadium are a pleasant backdrop for viewing any Royals game.
Star power: 6 | Youth: 2.5 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2 | Minutia: 3
Bonus: 3.5: +1 for George Kirby‘s control, +1 for Julio Rodriguez‘s energy, +1 for every reference to Cal Raleigh‘s nickname (“The Big Dumper”), +0.5 for the yellow metal trident used for home run celebrations (all fun and games until Julio pokes his eye out)
The Mariners have J-Rod and a strong starting rotation — Luis Castillo, Kirby and Logan Gilbert, ranked 39th, 40th and 62nd in our top 100 — so they get a solid star power figure. But outside of Rodriguez, they don’t do much on the bases or in the field (there’s a strong likelihood they’ll get no 4- or 5-star catches from their corner outfielders). T-Mobile Park also suppresses offense in general, so you’ll see a lot of low-scoring games when the Mariners are at home. Still, there’s nothing like seeing the cameras showing Mount Rainier on a sunny afternoon and the Mariners’ Sunday cream jerseys are among my favorites (the black pants on their City Connect uniforms are an abomination, however).
Star power: 2 | Youth: 5.5 | Baserunning: 5 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 1.5 | Minutia: 4
Bonus: 3: +1 for when Tarik Skubal wins the Cy Young Award, +1 for stealing Jason Benetti from the White Sox, +1 for the pizza spear home run celebration (all fun and games until Spencer Torkelson pokes his eye out)
The Tigers are sneakily interesting, especially if Torkelson and Riley Greene can build upon their 2023 seasons. Colt Keith and Parker Meadows give them two high-profile rookies and if Meadows is as advertised in center field, that catch score could improve. Maybe we’ll even see top prospect Jackson Jobe join the rotation or bullpen later in the season. Here’s a question: Is Javier Baez a negative or positive viewing experience at this point in his career? He’s still astonishing at times on defense, but he’s probably the most frustrating batter to watch in the majors: low batting average, terrible OBP and he doesn’t hit for any power anymore.
Star power: 9 | Youth: 1 | Baserunning: 2.5 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 3 | Minutia: 3
Bonus: 4: +1 for Ronel Blanco maybe throwing another no-hitter, +1 for Jose Altuve still doing Jose Altuve stuff, +0.5 for the ridiculous movement on Framber Valdez‘s pitches (maybe too much, he walked six in his first start), +0.5 for annoying home runs hit into the Crawford Boxes, +0.5 for the fear you feel every time Yordan Alvarez steps into the box, +0.5 for living legend Justin Verlander
Look, there’s no denying the Astros’ star power: They tied with the Braves for the most players in the top 100 at eight, with Alvarez (No. 8), Altuve (No. 26) and Kyle Tucker (No. 28) each cracking the top 30. Tucker is a potential 30-30 threat (he stole 30 bases and hit 29 home runs last season), but they’re pretty station-to-station on the bases. Of course, we’ll now see if Blanco is the real deal after his no-hitter against the Blue Jays and I’m curious to see if Hunter Brown breaks out. Plus, we’ll get Verlander back at some point. Subjectively, I’d probably put the Astros higher, but this is where our highly scientific system puts them.
Star power: 3.5 | Youth: 8 | Baserunning: 7 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 1 | Minutia: 2 |
Bonus: 3: +1 for the Naylor brothers, +1 for Andres Gimenez‘s range at second, +1 for Shane Bieber looking healthy again after striking out 11 on Opening Day (even if it was against the A’s)
With second-year starters Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams, plus sophomore catcher Bo Naylor, the Guardians fare very well in the youth category, and they also run the bases well, with four players stealing at least 20 bases last season (although Myles Straw‘s bat has him back in the minors). The lack of power means they have to win with pitching, defense and speed — a formula that worked in 2022, but not as well in 2023. If Bieber can regain his Cy Young-level form and rookie Brayan Rocchio can provide some offense at shortstop, they have a chance.
Star power: 2 | Youth: 4.5 | Baserunning: 10 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 4 | Minutia: 1
Bonus: 4: +1 for Randy Arozarena‘s celebrations, +1 for Zach Eflin‘s immaculate strike-throwing ability, +0.5 for Pete Fairbanks‘ fastball, +0.5 for Jose Caballero‘s confidence, +0.5 for their ability to turn every no-name reliever into a good pitcher, +0.5 for Yandy Diaz‘s biceps
The Rays’ athleticism certainly shows up on the bases, where they’re annually one of the best and most aggressive teams. Oddly, it didn’t show up as much in outfield defense, where Arozarena had just one 4-star catch (no 5-star ones) and Josh Lowe had none of either (Jose Siri is outstanding in center, however) last season. Arozarena and Diaz were the only two Rays to crack the top 100 list, although Eflin, Lowe and Isaac Paredes could all get there and Brandon Lowe has been there in the past. The big negative: Watching games from the Trop is like watching a game played in some 16th-century dungeon in a cold, moldy English castle.
Star power: 6.5 | Youth: 3.5 | Baserunning: 1.5 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 5 | Minutia: 4
Bonus: 4: +1 for the Juan Soto Shuffle, +1 for large human Aaron Judge playing center field, +1 for Marcus Stroman‘s six-pitch repertoire and succeeding as a 5-foot-7 pitcher, +0.5 for the potential of Carlos Rodon‘s slider, +0.5 for the hot start
Wait, the Yankees, the crown jewel franchise of the majors, rank only in the middle of the pack? Pinstripes! Yankee Stadium! John Sterling! A fearsome one-two punch in Judge and Soto and homers galore from the likes of Judge, Soto and Giancarlo Stanton certainly means the Yankees should rank higher, right? While Judge (No. 2), Soto (No. 3) and Gerrit Cole (No. 7) all ranked in the top 10, the only other Yankees player in the top 100 was Anthony Volpe at 95. I also discounted the point total a bit since Cole is out at least a couple of months. Of course, the best thing about the Yankees in 2024: If they return to the top of the division after missing the playoffs in 2024, that’s a great story, especially if Judge and Soto tear up the league; if they miss the playoffs again, that’s also a great story.
Star power: 2 | Youth: 7 | Baserunning: 8.5 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2 | Minutia: 3
Bonus: 4: +1 for Elly De La Cruz‘s arm, +1 for the possibility De La Cruz will hit a pitch that bounces over the fence, +1 for the hope of seeing De La Cruz going home to third on a triple, +1 for Hunter Greene‘s potential (and blazing fastball)
De La Cruz is a great example of how one off-the-charts rip-roaring ball of dynamite can make an otherwise pedestrian team (other than their overall youth) must-watch viewing. But you know what’s not exciting? Strikeouts, which he has a lot of. At this point, De La Cruz is more hype and potential than actual production (although he did come in at No. 72 in our top 100). Losing Matt McLain to shoulder surgery is a big loss for the Reds, and their ultimate success will depend on their young rotation. If the pitching improves and De La Cruz hits, this Reds team will climb higher on this list.
Star power: 7.5 | Youth: 3 | Baserunning: 6 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 2 | Minutia: 4
Bonus: 3: +1 for Dylan Cease‘s slider, +1 for Ha-Seong Kim‘s defense, +1 for watching games from San Diego and wishing you were there
The Padres have lost Soto, Snell and Josh Hader yet still have Fernando Tatis Jr. (No. 14), Manny Machado (25), Cease (57), Xander Bogaerts (58) and Kim (83) in the top 100, with Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove having top-100 ability at their best. It feels like everyone ignored Tatis last season — which is understandable following the missed season and PED suspension, but he’s still one of the more exciting all-around players in the game. He won the Platinum Glove as the best overall defender in the NL in 2023 after a full-time move to right field, earned due to a combination of range and a strong throwing arm. He stole 29 bases and hit 25 home runs. He’s off to a good start this year and I think the offense improves. I’m also a big fan of the Padres embracing their history and going all-in on brown for their uniforms.
Star power: 2 | Youth: 7.5 | Baserunning: 6 | Catches: 5 | 425+: 1.5 | Minutia: 4
Bonus: 3: +1 for Jackson Chourio hype, +1 for Brewers broadcaster Bob Uecker, +0.5 for Abner Uribe‘s fastball, +0.5 for Devin Williams‘ changeup (would get more points, but he’s out for a couple of months)
This surprised me a bit as the Brewers are lacking in star power after trading away Corbin Burnes (they had three players in the top 100, but Willy Adames was the highest at No. 86), but they have young, exciting players all over the field, starting with Chourio, Kiley McDaniel’s No. 2 prospect heading into the season. The outfield defense will be spectacular with Chourio, Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins and Joey Wiemer and the double-play combo of Adames and rookie Joey Ortiz will also be stellar. Rhys Hoskins has already given them a little edge on the field as well. Bonus points for an enthusiastic fan base, Bernie Brewer and the sausage races.
Star power: 2 | Youth: 6 | Baserunning: 5.5 | Catches: 4 | 425+: 3.5 | Minutia: 4
Bonus: 4.5: +1 for Oneil Cruz doing all the same things we said about Elly De La Cruz, +1 for Andrew McCutchen, +1 for Jared Jones‘ slider, +1 for Ke’Bryan Hayes‘ defense, +0.5 for the hot start that gives hopes and dreams to Pirates fans
This is not an overreaction to Pittsburgh’s hot start. Nope. THIS IS A SCIENTIFIC SURVEY. I don’t know if the Pirates are going to be good, but they’re going to be more fun than they’ve been in the past. The return of Cruz is a huge part of that, of course, but they’ve added an excellent fly ball chaser in center fielder Michael A. Taylor while Jones’ debut start with 10 strikeouts and the pending arrival of Paul Skenes and his 100-mph heater helps the youth score. Mix in a great ballpark, classic jerseys and the Roberto Clemente Bridge and I’ll be watching more Pirates games than I have in years (assuming they keep winning).
Star power: 5 | Youth: 3 | Baserunning: 7 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 3.5 | Minutia: 5
Bonus: 3.5: +1 for the Mets’ broadcast booth, +1 for Edwin Diaz and Timmy Trumpet, +1 for Mr. Met, +0.5 for Brandon Nimmo‘s smile
Whoa, the Mets over the Yankees? How can that be possible? The Mets are awful! (So far.) Well, yes, you’re overlooking the unintentional comedy factor here — the Mets will apparently be the Mets, even with a new manager and new president of baseball operations. We’re not even a week into the season and the Mets have already: (1) Instigated a benches-clearing incident and intentionally thrown at a batter; (2) Lost a game in extra innings with two bad fielding plays; (3) Scored eight runs in four games; (4) Stressed that they’re not in panic mode. Tell that to Mets fans.
Star power: 3 | Youth: 8 | Baserunning: 6 | Catches: 3.5 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutia: 4
Bonus: 3: +1 for Brayan Bello‘s changeup, +1 for Triston Casas‘ upside (1.034 OPS in the second half), +0.5 for Tyler O’Neill‘s physique, +0.5 for Greg Weissert‘s sweeper
It’s the new-look Red Sox: faster, better defense and a whole lot more entertaining. The Red Sox have been mediocre and uninteresting the past two seasons, but with rookie Ceddanne Rafaela in center, flanked by Jarren Duran and O’Neill, they’ve dramatically upgraded their outfield defense and their overall team speed. Throw in a couple big bashers in Rafael Devers and Casas (the only two Red Sox in the top 100) and this should be a fun offense to watch. Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford also looked outstanding in their first starts as new pitching coach Andrew Bailey may already be improving the staff. Red Sox fans are understandably cranky after the team didn’t spend much this offseason, but I think they’ll grow to like this team — it has a chance to surprise.
Star power: 9 | Youth: 1 | Baserunning: 5 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 4 | Minutia: 4
Bonus: 5: +1 for Trea Turner‘s slides, +1 for Bryce Harper‘s designer cleats, +1 for Zack Wheeler‘s fastball, +1 for Brandon Marsh‘s and Matt Strahm‘s hair, +1 for the best set of uniforms in the majors (yes, that’s technically part of the minutia category, but they’re getting a bonus point anyway)
Subjectively, I might’ve ranked the Phillies first: They have star power, they have personality, they’re good, their fans are loud and into the game, Marsh and Johan Rojas give them two plus outfielders and Harper is always a guy you can’t take your eyes off. Alas, since this is an established team of veterans, they score at the bottom of the youth scale and that hurts their overall ranking. They’re also lacking a bit on the bases, even with Turner’s electric speed and slides, and surprisingly, they didn’t earn a full “5” in the 425-plus foot home run category — they only ranked eighth in the majors in that department last season.
Star power: 4.5 | Youth: 6 | Baserunning: 10 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 1 | Minutia: 5
Bonus: 3: +1 for Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner turning two, +1 for “Go Cubs Go,” +0.5 for Justin Steele’s slider, +0.5 for stealing manager Craig Counsell from the Brewers
The Cubs have a lot of items in their favor: They were tied with the Rays as the best baserunning team in the majors last season (Hoerner led the way with 43 steals, but they were efficient and opportunistic up and down the lineup), they get to include Shota Imanaga in the “youth” category alongside Jordan Wicks, and they had a solid four players in the top 100 (and that didn’t include Seiya Suzuki, who I think will crack that list next season after a big 2024). And, of course, the Cubs have Wrigley Field. Baseball perfection on a summer afternoon.
Star power: 8 | Youth: 9 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 4 | Minutia: 2
Bonus: 5: +1 for when Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer return, +1 for manager Bruce Bochy, +1 for Evan Carter‘s plate discipline, +1 for Marcus Semien never taking a day off, +0.5 for Adolis Garcia‘s arms, +0.5 for Corey Seager‘s ability to crush the first pitch
The Rangers win the World Series and now add Carter for a full season plus fellow super rookie Wyatt Langford. What a turnaround for this franchise in such a short time. If they do manage to get a healthy deGrom and Scherzer back in the second half, maybe they can become the first team to repeat since the 2000 Yankees. The dynamic offense is going to score a ton of runs. The only negatives here are a lack of action on the bases — although Carter and Langford will add more speed — and the antiseptic nature of watching a game from Globe Life Field. The jersey set is pretty bland other than the throwback baby blues.
Star power: 6 | Youth: 10 | Baserunning: 7.5 | Catches: 4 | 425+: 3 | Minutia: 2
Bonus: 3: +1 for Gabriel Moreno‘s arm, +1 for Zac Gallen‘s ability to change speeds, +0.5 for Eugenio Suarez‘s infectious personality, +0.5 for Corbin Carroll‘s swagger
OK, there’s a lot of Carroll in this ranking: He was No. 10 in the top 100, he still qualifies as a part of the “youth” category, he’s the best baserunner in the game and he was the only outfielder with four 4-star catches last season. He even hit a respectable five home runs of 425-plus feet. He’s not a one-man “SportsCenter” highlight, however: The Diamondbacks have four other players in the top 100 (Gallen, Ketel Marte, Moreno and Merrill Kelly) and have other young players to watch, including Moreno and second-year righty Brandon Pfaadt. If only they’d figure out the uniforms.
Star power: 10 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 8 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 5 | Minutia: 4
Bonus: 5: +1 for Spencer Strider‘s mustache, +1 for Strider’s new curveball, +1 for Ronald Acuna Jr.’s flair, +1 for Matt Olson‘s swing, +1 for Charlie Morton still going strong
No shock here as the Braves are overloaded with top-echelon talent and are likely on their way to a third straight 100-win season, which the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz Braves did from 1997 to 1999. If you like offense, the Braves are your team. If you like speed, the Braves have it with Acuna and Michael Harris II and were a top-five baserunning team in 2023. If you like defense, the Braves are solid across the board. If you like pitching, the Braves have even more of it than last season, and Strider would top many lists as the No. 1 must-see starter in the game. Last season, they staked their claim as one of the best single-season lineups. If they do it again — and top it off with a World Series title — they go down as maybe the best ever.
Star power: 6 | Youth: 10 | Baserunning: 9 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2 | Minutia: 5
Bonus: 5: +1 for Gunnar Henderson making The Leap (he will), +1 for Corbin Burnes‘ cutter, +1 for Kyle Bradish‘s slider/curveball combo, +1 for Adley Rutschman‘s leadership, +1 for being so good they didn’t even need Jackson Holliday to start the season
It’s not just that the Orioles are young and good and got even better in adding an ace in Burnes, but they play such a clean, efficient brand of baseball. They run the bases, they execute on defense and they don’t just rely on home runs to score runs (which is harder to do anyway with the deeper left field at Camden Yards). They still have Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez as sophomores and no-doubters to improve, and then they’ll be adding Holliday, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad during the season as needed. They play in one of the best parks in the majors, have a timeless set of uniforms and have a fan base that is going to fill the park this season.
Star power: 10 | Youth: 6.5 | Baserunning: 6 | Catches: 4 | 425+: 4 | Minutia: 5
Bonus: 5: +1 for Mookie Betts playing shortstop, +1 for Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s splitter, +1 for Tyler Glasnow‘s curveball, +1 for Freddie Freeman‘s doubles, +1 for Shohei Ohtani
You probably knew this was coming even if you’re on the side of Dodger Hater. The only negative for Dodgers fans — aside from Max Muncy‘s defense — might be that they’re going to be leading a lot of games 7-2 in the sixth inning. Here’s one surprising thing about the Dodgers: They didn’t hit many 425-plus foot home runs last season. Betts and Freeman only hit three apiece. They found a way to fix that by adding Ohtani, who topped the majors with 21 such blasts (and he brings speed on the bases). Teoscar Hernandez also brings power and the occasional 4-star catch (even though overall he’s not a great defender). On top of that, you get Dodger Stadium with that perfect “Dodgers” script and the sun shining bright.
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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time
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14 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
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Associated Press
Aug 11, 2025, 12:07 PM ET
For the first time, Texas will open a college football season ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25.
The Longhorns hardly have a mandate in the poll released Monday: They edged out Penn State by just five points in the closest preseason vote since 1998.
Texas received 25 first-place votes and 1,552 points to give the Southeastern Conference the preseason No. 1 team for a record fifth straight year. The Nittany Lions got 23 first-place votes and 1,547 points for their highest preseason ranking since they were No. 1 to open the 1997 season.
The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The Buckeyes received 11 first-place votes from the panel of 65 media members who cover college football. No. 4 Clemson got four first-place votes and No. 5 Georgia got one.
Notre Dame, Oregon (which got the final first-place vote), Alabama, LSU and Miami round out the top 10.
The SEC leads all conferences with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25, most ever by a conference and one more than a year ago. The SEC has four teams in the top 10 for the second straight year.
The Big Ten, which has won the past two national championships, has two of the top three teams in the poll for the third straight year and six in the Top 25 for the third year in a row.
Four Big 12 teams are ranked, with defending conference champion Arizona State the highest at No. 11. The Atlantic Coast Conference has three, led by Clemson.
The Longhorns have been on an upward trajectory since they were 5-7 in 2021, Steve Sarkisian’s first season. They have won 25 of their past 30 games and reached two straight CFP semifinals. Last year, they were ranked No. 1 four of five weeks from mid-September to mid-October, and they reached the SEC championship game in their first season in the conference.
“But this is a new year, new faces, new team, and obviously expectations are high for our program,” Sarkisian said at SEC media days. “I’m not naive to that. I don’t put my head in the sand, and expectations are very high. But I also say we’re the University of Texas, and the standard is the standard here, and that’s competing for championships year in and year out.”
Twelve Texas players were taken in the NFL draft, including three first-round picks, but elite recruiting and additions from the transfer portal should alleviate concerns about losses on the offensive line and at receiver. The defense brings back plenty of talent.
Still, Texas received just 38.5% of the first-place votes (25 of 65), the smallest share for a No. 1 team in the preseason poll since Georgia got 33.9% (22 of 65) in 2008.
The Longhorns have ended a season No. 1 in the AP poll three times (1963, 1969, 2005) but until now had never started a season higher than No. 2 (1962, 1965, 1970, 2005, 2009).
The second-ranked Nittany Lions are not only six points from being No. 1, they are 75 points ahead of the Buckeyes in what might be considered a slight to the national champs.
Penn State will have Drew Allar back under center for what many consider a light schedule ahead of a late September visit from Oregon before a Nov. 1 showdown at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes, in the preseason top five for the ninth straight year and 12th of the past 13, will have a new look with only five starters back on offense and three on defense.
“This team has its own identity,” coach Ryan Day said. “It wants to have its own identity, but it also wants to be the first Ohio State team to win back-to-back national championships.”
The opener against Texas will give the Buckeyes a good measure of themselves. Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz will be the third new starting quarterback in three years. Whoever gets the job will throw to one of the nation’s top players in Jeremiah Smith.
Day will also have another chance to figure out archrival and preseason No. 14 Michigan, which has beaten the Buckeyes for four straight years.
• Texas will try to become the 12th team to start and finish No. 1 since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950. The last team to do it was Alabama in 2017.
• Notre Dame is in the preseason top 10 for the third time in four years. The Fighting Irish will have a new quarterback, CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. The two played a combined eight snaps last season as Notre Dame went all the way to the CFP title game won by Ohio State.
• With Boise State at No. 25, all 12 teams in the 2024 College Football Playoff are ranked in the preseason. The Mountain West’s Broncos are the first team from a Group of Five conference to crack the preseason Top 25 since Tulane was No. 24 in 2023.
• No. 16 SMU, which returns quarterback Kevin Jennings from its CFP team, is in the preseason Top 25 for the first time in 40 years. The 1985 team was No. 3, finishing 6-5 and unranked.
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AP preseason poll reaction: One big number for every team
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August 11, 2025By
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The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.

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Pamela MaldonadoAug 11, 2025, 01:00 PM ET
Close- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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