Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, speaks at the Atreju political convention organized by Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy), in Rome, Italy, on Dec. 15, 2023.
Antonio Masiello | Getty Images
Tesla could “go bust” while its stock could fall to $14, Per Lekander, a hedge fund manager who has been shorting Elon Musk‘s electric car maker since 2020, told CNBC on Wednesday.
“This was really the beginning of the end of the Tesla bubble, which probably, arguably was the biggest stock market bubble in modern history,” Lekander, managing partner at investment management firmClean Energy Transition, said on “Squawk Box Europe.”
“I actually think the company could go bust.”
Tesla was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.
Lekander was a former portfolio manager at investment firm Lansdowne Partners who successfully called a 2018 rally in carbon prices. Since 2020, Clean Energy Transition has been short Tesla’s stock, meaning Lekander’s firm will profit if the automaker’s shares fall.
In a March 2021 interview with CNBC, Lekander called for Tesla’s stock to go down. At the time of the interview, Tesla’s shares closed at $233.94. On Tuesday, the stock closed at $166.63. But Lekander also called for a comeback of the traditional automakers, singling out Volkswagen. Shares of Volkswagen have fallen around 53% since that call, though they rallied at the start of this year.
Lekander has taken his bearish Tesla call further, suggesting the stock could fall to $14 per share. He said his call is based on an estimate that the company’s full-year earnings per share this year would be $1.40. Lekander contends that Tesla is a “no growth” stock and should be valued on 10 times forward earnings, versus around 58 times forward earnings currently. Forward earnings are an important metric used by traders to gauge the value of a stock.
If Tesla’s stock hit $14, that would represent around 91% downside from Tuesday’s close. Tesla’s shares have already fallen more than 30% this year.
“I think however Tesla cannot be at $14. If it falls under a certain level because of everything that’s been going on, it’s going to go bust.”
Lekander gave a number of reasons for his negative outlook. He said Tesla’s business model has been based on strong revenue growth, vertical integration and direct-to-consumer sales. Vertical integration broadly refers to when one company internally handles many parts of a process from the manufacturing of the car to the software. This model is “brilliant” when a company grows, but goes in “reverse” when sales fall, Lekander said.
The hedge fund boss said Tesla’s first-quarter problems were not to do with some of the reasons the company cited such as supply chain disruption. Instead, it is a “demand problem,” according to Lekander, who said two cars — the Model 3 and Model Y — make up the bulk of the U.S. automaker’s sales. And the company does not see another new vehicle being released until 2025.
“I don’t see any reason whatsoever to see any recovery over the next two years given that these models are stale and given the economy is not rocketing,” Lekander said.
Tesla said in its statement Tuesday it had faced numerous challenges during the quarter.
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Negative Tesla voices growing
Lekander is among a chorus of negative voices on Tesla after disappointing delivery numbers.
“While the long-term proposition of electrical vehicles remains unchanged, the realities of delivering on that proposition are really starting to tell as Tesla (and the others) have run out of well-heeled consumers willing to pay big money to be beta testers,” Richard Windsor, founder of Radio Free Mobile, said in a research note Wednesday.
Windsor questioned Tesla’s roughly $500 billion valuation calling it “ludicrous” at a time when the company is facing rising competition.
“There is still plenty of downside in Tesla’s shares,” Windsor said.
Dan Ives, a noted Tesla bull at Wedbush Securities, who has a $300 price target on the electric vehicle maker, has become concerned.
“Let’s call this as it is: While we were anticipating a bad 1Q, this was an unmitigated disaster 1Q that is hard to explain away. We view this as a seminal moment in the Tesla story for Musk to either turn this around and reverse the black eye 1Q performance,” Ives said in a note Tuesday.
“Otherwise, some darker days could clearly be ahead that could disrupt the long-term Tesla narrative,” he added.
Analysts at HSBC and TD Cowen cut their price targets on Tesla’s stock on Wednesday.
Cathie Wood buys Tesla stock
Tesla is arguably one of the most divisive stocks on Wall Street and there are many that are still bullish on the company.
Meanwhile, some analysts are talking up the longer-term potential of Tesla.
Tom Narayan, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday that most of the reasons behind the fall in first-quarter deliveries were “one-time in nature.”
But he said one near-term catalyst could be a recent directive from Tesla’s CEO to employees to install and show customers how to use the latest version of the company’s driver assist system, marketed as FSD or Full Self-Driving. Tesla also launched a free trial of the service for compatible cars which usually costs $199 per month.
“Maybe that gets people in the showrooms, maybe it gets people to subscribe to it, maybe it gets people to buy cars. So there is that near-term catalyst,” Narayan said.
The RBC analyst, who has an outperform rating on Tesla’s stock with a $298 price target, said his valuation is based on Tesla’s energy storage business, which is a “huge opportunity” for the company. And he added that “autonomy” is also a big part of his rating on Tesla.
“If FSD works, now it’s [Tesla] a software business with a software multiples,” Narayan said. Tesla’s FSD system does not make a car autonomous. It still requires a driver to take control of the car.
The company is making GPT-5 available to everyone, including its free users. OpenAI said the model is smarter, faster and “a lot more useful,” particularly across domains like writing, coding and health care.
“I tried going back to GPT-4, and it was quite miserable,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a briefing with reporters.
Since launching its AI chatbot ChatGPT in 2022, OpenAI has rocketed into the mainstream. The company said it expects to hit 700 million weekly active users on ChatGPT this week, and it is in talks with investors about a potential stock sale at a valuation of roughly $500 billion, as CNBC previously reported.
OpenAI said GPT-5’s hallucination rate is lower, which means the model fabricates answers less frequently. The company said it also carried out extensive safety evaluations while developing GPT-5, including 5,000 hours of testing.
Instead of outright refusing to answer users’ questions if they are potentially risky, GPT-5 will use “safe completions,” OpenAI said. This means the model will give high-level responses within safety constraints that can’t be used to cause harm.
“GPT-5 has been trained to recognize when a task can’t be finished, avoid speculation and can explain limitations more clearly, which reduces unsupported claims compared to prior models,” said Michelle Pokrass, a post-training lead at OpenAI.
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During the briefing, OpenAI demonstrated how GPT-5 can be used for “vibe coding,” which is a term for when users generate software with AI based on a simple written prompt.
The company asked GPT-5 to create a web app that could help an English speaker learn French. The app had to have an engaging theme and include activities like flash cards and quizzes as well as a way to track daily progress. OpenAI submitted the same prompt into two GPT-5 windows, and it generated two different apps within seconds.
The apps had “some rough edges,” an OpenAI lead said, but users can make additional tweaks to the AI-generated software, like changing the background or adding additional tabs, as they see fit.
GPT-5 is rolling out to OpenAI’s Free, Plus, Pro and Team users on Thursday. This launch will be the first time that Free users have access to a reasoning model, which is a type of model that “thinks,” or carries out an internal chain of thought, before responding. If Free users hit their usage cap, they’ll have access to GPT-5 mini.
OpenAI’s Plus users have higher usage limits, and Pro users have unlimited access to GPT-5 as well as access to GPT-5 Pro. ChatGPT Edu and ChatGPT Enterprise users will get access to GPT-5 roughly a week from Thursday.
“It’s hard to believe it’s only been two and a half years since @sama joined us in Redmond to show the world GPT-4 for the first time in Bing, and it’s incredible to see how far we’ve come since that moment,” Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella wrote in a Thursday X post, referring to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s appearance at Microsoft headquarters in Washington in February 2023.
The new model is coming to Microsoft products Thursday, according to a company blog post. Microsoft 365 Copilot is getting GPT-5, as well as the Copilot for consumers and the Azure AI Foundry that developers can use to incorporate AI models into third-party applications.
Box, a company that helps enterprises manage their computer files, has been testing GPT-5 across a wide variety of data sets in recent weeks.
Aaron Levie, the CEO of Box, said previous AI models have failed many of the company’s most advanced tests because they struggle to make sense of complex math or logic within long documents. But Levie said GPT-5 is a “complete breakthrough.”
“The model is able to retain way more of the information that it’s looking at, and then use a much higher level of reasoning and logic capabilities to be able to make decisions,” Levie told CNBC in an interview.
OpenAI is releasing three different versions of the model for developers through its application programming interface, or API. Those versions, gpt-5, gpt-5-mini and gpt-5-nano, are designed for different cost and latency needs.
Earlier this week, OpenAI released two open-weight language models for the first time since it rolled out GPT-2 in 2019. Those models were built to serve as lower-cost options that developers, researchers and companies can easily run and customize.
But with GPT-5, OpenAI also has a broader consumer audience in mind. The company said interacting with the model feels natural and “more human.”
Altman said GPT-5 is like having a team of Ph.D.-level experts on hand at any time.
“People are limited by ideas, but not really the ability to execute, in many new ways,” he said.
Firefly Aerospace rings the opening bell at the Nasdaq on Aug. 7th, 2025.
The Nasdaq
Firefly Aerospace jumped more than 50% in its Nasdaq debut on Thursday after pricing shares above its expected range.
Shares started trading at $70 each under the ticker symbol FLY. The initial price values the company at close to $10 billion. The shares ticked lower after the open.
Space technology has gained momentum in recent years as companies such as Elon Musk‘s SpaceX amass more funding and government contracts. Firefly is the third space company to go public this year after Voyager Technology and Karman Holdings.
The rocket and lunar lander maker priced shares late Wednesday at $45, above its expected range of $41 to $43, raising $868 million. Earlier this week, Firefly had hiked its range up from the $35 to $39 it initially expected.
“It’s all about execution,” CEO Jason Kim told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We’re focused on rating up our alpha rockets because there’s so much demand for the response of dedicated one-ton launches from national security, commercial, as well as hypersonic missile testing.”
Earlier this year, Firefly’s Blue Ghost lunar lander successfully touched down on the moon in a mission funded by NASA. Firefly is also widely known for its Alpha rocket and has said in its IPO filing that its backlog totaled about $1.1 billion at the end of March.
In its IPO filing, Firefly said revenue in the latest quarter jumped sixfold to $55.9 million from $8.3 million. However, the company reported a net loss of about $60.1 million, up from $52.8 million in the year-ago period.
Beyond just space, the tech IPO market has started to heat up this year after an extended dry spell due to high inflation and rising interest rates. Figma, Circle and CoreWeave have all debuted in 2025 and seen their stocks pop.
Defense and aerospace private equity firm AE Industrial Partners owns a more than 41% stake in Firefly and controls the company, according to the prospectus. Of Firefly’s nine board members, five currently work at the firm. AE has $6.4 billion assets under management, according to its website.
Attendees walk through an exposition hall at AWS re:Invent, a conference hosted by Amazon Web Services, in Las Vegas on Dec. 3, 2024.
Noah Berger | Getty Images
Amazon Web Services has agreed to provide U.S. federal agencies with up to $1 billion in discounts for cloud adoption, modernization and training through 2028, an agency overseeing government procurement announced Thursday.
The agreement is expected to speed up migration to the cloud, as well as adoption of artificial intelligence tools, the General Services Administration said.
“AWS’s partnership with GSA demonstrates a shared public-private commitment to enhancing America’s AI leadership,” the agency said in a release.
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Amazon‘s cloud boss Matt Garman hailed the agreement as a “significant milestone in the large-scale digital transformation of government services.”
The discounts aggregated across federal agencies include credits to use AWS’ cloud infrastructure, modernization programs and training services, as well as incentives for “direct partnership.”
The GSA announced a similar deal last month with cloud rival Oracle. The agency also reached an agreement with OpenAI on Wednesday that will give federal agencies access to ChatGPT for $1 through the next year.