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The most succinct explanation for how Republicans expect Donald Trump to win in November may have come from, of all people, the firebrand Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida.

What I can tell you, Gaetz said earlier this year, is for every Karen we lose, theres a Julio and Jamal ready to sign up for the MAGA movement.

What Gaetz is saying, in his somewhat stereotypical racial shorthand, is that even if Trump alienates a growing number of well-educated white women (Karen), he can overcome those losses by attracting more blue-collar, nonwhite men (Julio and Jamal).

Even most Democrats agree that Trump appears positioned to gain ground this year among Black and Latino men without a college degreegroups that already moved in his direction from 2016 to 2020, according to studies of the vote such as the analysis of the results released by Catalist, a Democratic voter-targeting firm. And even many Republicans acknowledge that Trump in 2024 could face an even bigger deficit among college-educated white women, who already voted against him in larger numbers in 2020 than in 2016, according to those same studies.

Read: Americans really dont like Trumps health-care plans

Those offsetting movements among white women with a college degree and nonwhite men without one point toward the shifting demographic dynamics that could settle the rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden.

The differences in political allegiance across racial groups has long been one of the central divides in American elections, and it will remain crucial in 2024. But the differences within each racial group along the lines of education and gender may prove at least as important this year.

For Trump, the most likely path to victory in 2024 is maximizing his support among voters without a college degree, especially men, in every racial group. Victory for Biden will likely require him to maximize his backing among voters with a four-year degree or more, especially women, in each racial group.

Early polling about the 2024 presidential race mostly shows a continuation of the complex interplay between race, education, and gender that has reshaped the two parties coalitions over the past generation.

Since the 1980s, the consistent trend among white voters is that Democrats have run better among men than women, and better among those with at least a four-year college degree than those without one. These effects are reinforcing: Democrats typically perform best among white women with a degree and worst among men without one. The men with a degree, and the women without one, are the most closely contested groups among white voters, though those women usually lean red and those men have tilted more toward Democrats in the Trump era.

Traditionally, minority voters did not divide as much along these axes of gender and education. But more of these cross pressures have surfaced since Trumps emergence as the GOPs dominant figure. In 2016, Hillary Clinton drew much less support among Latino men than among Latinas, according to the analysis by Catalist. In 2020, Trump improved substantially among Latino men and Latina women, but this time his gains were greatest among those without degrees. Those cumulative changes moved Latinos closer to the pattern familiar among white voters: Though Biden carried 67 percent of Latina voters with a college degree, he won only 56 percent of Latino men without one, Catalist found.

Black voters didnt differ much along educational lines in either Trump campaign, but those contests opened a consistent gender gap: Each time, Trump ran a few points better among Black men than among Black women, according to the Catalist results.

All of these movements have stirred Republican hopes that they are now poised to advance in minority communities among the same groups where they have gained the most over the past generation among white peoplevoters without a college degree, especially men. A wide array of national polls, as well as surveys in the swing states, have consistently shown Trump now attracting about 20 percent support among Black voters, and as much as 45 percent among Latinos. Thats well above his 2020 showing with both groups and a better performance than any GOP presidential nominee since the civil-rights era.

Read: Trump would break the budget

People will ask you: Why is it? Its because of the issues these people care about. Its crime, its affordability, and its also immigration, Jim McLaughlin, a pollster for Trump, told me.

Bidens support is drooping in these surveys among nonwhite voters of almost every description. But detailed results from the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll show that, among minority voters, Biden now faces the greatest vulnerability with the same group that is toughest for him among white people: men without a college degree. That survey, released early in March, found Trump, stunningly, running even with Biden among those blue-collar nonwhite men, according to the results provided by Don Levy, the director of the Siena Research Institute, which conducts the poll.

In that same poll, only one in seven nonwhite men without a degree said that Bidens policies had helped them personally, while more than one in three said his policies had hurt them. For Trump, the proportions were reversed: More than one in three of those men said his policies had helped them, while only about one in seven said they had been hurt by his agenda.

Like many Democratic strategists, the longtime party consultant Chuck Rocha believes that Biden risks losing ground among blue-collar, nonwhite men, especially those who are younger to early middle age. Ive never seen more of a disconnect when I do focus groups of people who dont give him credit for any of that shit hes done, Rocha told me. He gets no credit with nobody.

If Biden can hold his losses among nonwhite voters primarily to men without a college degree, Democrats would likely breathe a sigh of relief. Thats because those men cast less than 9 percent of all votes in 2020, according to calculations from census data by William Frey, a demographer at Brookings Metro, shared exclusively with The Atlantic. Partly because their turnout is so low, they are not a rapidly growing group in the electorate: Frey projects that only about 500,000 more of those noncollege, nonwhite men will vote in 2024 than 2020.

Biden will face much greater risk if Trump can extend his gains to other segments of the nonwhite community. Polls now suggest thats possible.

Looking through the lenses of gender and education, the largest group of nonwhite voters are women without a college degree. They cast more than 10 percent of all votes in 2020, according to Freys calculations (although he expects that they will add only a modest 225,000 more voters in 2024).

These blue-collar women of color are not an intrinsically easy audience for Republicans. Nearly three-fifths of them agreed that the Republican Party has been taken over by racists, and a comparable number supported legal abortion in all or most circumstances, according to polling provided by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI). In surveys by the Pew Research Center, four-fifths of non-college-educated Black women said they had an unfavorable view of Trump, as did two-thirds of Latina women without a degree.

Yet economic discontent has left a clear opening for Trump. In last months New York Times/Siena survey, fewer than one in 10 of these women said Bidens policies had helped them personally; more than three times as many said they had benefited from Trumps policies.

College-educated nonwhite men are another obvious target for Trump, though they are a relatively small group. These men are highly liberal on social issues. But they also express substantial economic discontent: More of them say that they personally benefited from Trumps policies rather than Bidens.

Among voters of color, women with a college degree provide Biden his best chance to improve on his 2020 support. Those women cast about 6 percent of all votes in 2020, Frey calculates, but heexpects they will add more voters in 2024 than will any other segment of the minority community.

In PRRIs polling, college-educated women consistently take the most liberal positions of any minority group: Nearly three-fourths of them, for instance, say abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances. High percentages of both Black and Latina college-educated women express negative views about Trump in Pews polling. And in contrast to the other minority groups, significantly more nonwhite women with a college degree said in the New York Times/Siena poll that they had been helped rather than hurt by Bidens policies, while slightly more of them said the opposite about Trump.

White women with a college degree may be even more important as an offset for Biden if he loses ground among nonwhite men, as polls now suggest he will. These well-educated white women cast more than 16 percent of all votes in 2020, and with women now composing three-fifths of all college graduates, Frey projects that 1.1 million more of them will vote in 2024 than in 2020. These women tilt strongly left on most social issues and were far more likely than any of the other groups in the New York Times/Siena poll to say that Trumps policies had hurt them personally.

McLaughlin said Trump has an opportunity to improve among these women compared with 2020 because they are concerned about the same issues moving men toward Trump, particularly crime and immigration. But Democrats believe these womens strong support for abortion rights should allow Biden to expand his already substantial margin among them.

Theres evidence to justify those hopes. The 2022 midterm election was the first campaign after the Supreme Courts Dobbs decision rescinding the constitutional right to abortion. In those races, Democratic gubernatorial candidates supporting abortion rights ran even better than Biden did in 2020 among these college-educated white women in the key swing states of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, according to exit polls. Biden could do better among college white women and get more of them out to vote, the Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who worked for Bidens 2020 campaign, told me. Hes not tapped out in the number of women [he can win] on the abortion issue.

Mike Madrid, a GOP strategist who has become a prominent Trump opponent in the party, told me Trump faces a conundrum as he tries to hold down his losses with these white women while securing more support among nonwhite men. Madrid said that the only bulwark Trump has against white college-educated women deserting him over abortion is to heighten their fears about illegal immigration.

But pressing those buttons with inflammatory language, and proposals such as mass deportation of undocumented migrants, risks endangering his gains among Latinos, said Madrid, the author of the upcoming book The Latino Century. Madrid said that Biden may not rebound to the margins Democrats enjoyed among Latinos a decade ago, but that once more of them become aware of Trumps proposals on immigration, the former presidents high poll numbers with the group are going to come back down to Earth.

Robert P. Jones, the president of the PRRI, told me that Trump so far has had the luxury of running two parallel campaigns. All of his belligerent proposals and dehumanizing language about immigrants are reaching his base of socially conservative white voters through conservative media, while little is getting through to nonwhite voters, who are mostly less attuned to the election. Like Madrid, Jones believes that more nonwhite voters will recoil from Trumps harshest policies and words when they learn more about them. The question is whether he is going to be able to keep up this two-track strategy, Jones said.

Demographic change will provide another thumb on the scale for Biden. White voters without a college degree, now the GOPs best group, have declined about two percentage points as a share of voters in each presidential election for decades, and Frey expects that pattern to continue in 2024. In all, Frey predicts that the number of college-educated voters of all races will increase by about 4 million this year compared with 2020, while the number of noncollege voters will decline by about a million. If Frey is right, the share of college-educated voters of all races in the 2024 electorate will increase by about two percentage points from 2020, while voters of color will increase their share by about one percentage point.

These small changes in the electorates composition should marginally boost Biden. But they are not enough to overcome the level of defection polls show him now facing among nonwhite voters. Democratic strategists such as Rocha working in minority communities believe that Biden can claw back some of that support, particularly among women, by focusing more attention on abortion and Trumps racially confrontational policies and language. Yet these cultural and race-related issues may work better for Biden with college-educated white voters, who consistently express much less concern in polls about their immediate economic situation than other Americans do.

Matt Morrison, the executive director of Working America, a group that organizes working-class voters who are not in unions, told me that the key for Biden with blue-collar voters of color will be to make them more aware of policies he has pursued to help them make ends meet, such as his programs to reduce prescription-drug costs. The nonwhite voters leaning toward Trump, Morrison noted, are not nearly as attracted to his policies and persona as most working-class white voters are. I am looking at who Biden has lost support from, and they are not MAGA Republicans, Morrison told me. They are people who have not gotten a reason to vote for the president.

If Biden cant effectively communicate such a reason to more nonwhite voters, the 2024 election could produce a historic irony. After a political career in which Trump has relentlessly stoked white racial grievances, his ability to fracture the nonwhite community along lines of gender and education could be the decisive factor that propels him to a second term.

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College Football Playoff impact: Players who stuck around

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April 30, 2025

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College Football Playoff impact: Players who stuck around

Following two transfer portal windows and the NFL draft, college football fans might need Apple AirTags to track where their favorite players wound up.

This space is dedicated to those who decided to stay — commitments who boosted their teams’ College Football Playoff hopes. Penn State’s 2022 recruiting class could take up half the list: quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and defensive tackle Zane Durant are all back from the Nittany Lions’ CFP semifinal run.

“When we all committed here coming out of our ’22 class, that was one of our goals coming in as Penn Staters, we wanted to compete for championships, both Big Ten and obviously national championships,” Allar said. “And obviously we had a taste of that last year, and we know how close you are, so it’s just building off that and trying to make another run at it.”

Here’s a look at 13 players from 11 schools and representing five different leagues whose decisions to either forgo the NFL draft or sidestep the portal have beefed up their respective teams’ playoff chances.

The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft

What his return means: Nussmeier, a fifth-year senior, and offensive coordinator Joe Sloan are entering their second season together and aiming to improve upon a stellar debut, which will help the Tigers contend for the SEC title. Nussmeier threw for 4,052 passing yards last year, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Even if LSU can’t win the league, Nussmeier’s return can help the Tigers earn an at-large CFP bid — especially if he makes a similar jump to his predecessors, Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, who both won the Heisman Trophy in their second seasons in Baton Rouge. Nussmeier’s dad, Doug, will be nearby as the Saints’ offensive coordinator after winning a Super Bowl as the Eagles’ quarterbacks coach. With four new starters on the Tigers’ offensive line, there’s going to be an adjustment period, but if the “Nuss Bus” gets the time he needs, this should be a breakout season and his draft stock will rise with LSU’s playoff chances.

2. Drew Allar, QB, Penn State

The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft

What his return means: Penn State has something Ohio State and Oregon don’t — a starting quarterback with playoff experience. The Nittany Lions might finally have the pieces in place to return to the top of the Big Ten and contend for a national title. Allar, who’s entering his third season as the starter, will be surrounded by NFL talent on the offensive line and in the running game, and could make a case to be Penn State’s first Heisman Trophy winner since John Cappelletti in 1973. Last season, he had 3,327 passing yards, the third most in a season in school history. With a second season under coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and more options at wide receiver — plus a still-loaded tight end room — there will be no shortage of options for Allar to push the ball downfield more.

The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft

What his return means: On paper, Clemson has enough offensive firepower returning to elevate the Tigers into a deeper CFP run than their first-round exit in 2024 and they should have the Heisman-contending quarterback the program has desperately missed. Klubnik leads a Clemson offense that is No. 1 in the FBS in returning production (81%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Klubnik reestablished himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the country following a down season in 2023. Last year, his 308 completions, 3,639 passing yards and 36 passing touchdowns all ranked among the best seasons in program history. As he enters his third season as a starter under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, Klubnik’s understanding of the offense and his relationship with Riley has grown, positioning Klubnik for what should be his best season with the Tigers.

4. Nicholas Singleton/Kaytron Allen, RBs, Penn State

The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft

What their return means: The nation’s best running back duo returns intact, and they’ve got playoff experience along with familiarity and knowledge of the offense in coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s second season, all of which should boost the Nittany Lions’ hopes of winning the Big Ten and returning to the CFP. Singleton and Allen were projected by ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. to be the Nos. 5 and 6 running backs available in the 2025 draft after becoming the first combo in Penn State history to each have at least 1,000 rushing yards in the same season. Penn State ran for more than 200 yards in 10 games last season, and the Nittany Lions led all Power 4 teams and Notre Dame in rushing with 3,237 yards. Of course, it helps to have 6-foot-4, 350-pound offensive guard Olaivavega Ioane blocking.

The decision: Avoid the transfer portal

What his return means: Sellers absolutely drew interest from other teams in November and December, but he re-signed quickly with the Gamecocks — and his commitment could be the difference between receiving or not receiving a CFP bid. The same can be said for edge rusher Dylan Stewart, who also attracted attention after 10.5 TFLs and 6.5 sacks last year. South Carolina made a playoff case with Sellers leading the offense last year, but the CFP selection committee didn’t rank the No. 15 Gamecocks high enough for inclusion. He improved throughout the season last fall, increasing his Total QBR from 52 in his first six games to 81 over the last six. This year, he’ll be working with Mike Shula, the son of Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Don Shula.

The decision: Avoid the transfer portal (twice)

What his return means: Illinois can be a CFP sleeper team by competing for the Big Ten title and earning an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the league. The importance of Illinois retaining its starting quarterback after a strong spring push from Tennessee can’t be understated. The Illini have a chance to be this year’s Indiana — a Big Ten contender with a manageable schedule that can play its way into the selection committee’s rankings with a standout quarterback and his supporting cast. After public speculation he might transfer for his final year of eligibility, Altmyer announced in December he would return to the team. He did it again in April, following the drama at Tennessee. Altmyer passed for 2,543 yards, 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions last year, leading Illinois to a 9-3 regular season and a top-20 ranking in the Associated Press poll.

The decision: Avoid the transfer portal

What his return means: K-State can win another wide-open Big 12 race and earn an automatic bid into the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Johnson never entered the transfer portal, but he attracted interest, especially after Tennessee lost Nico Iamaleava. “We got a damned wall built around him,” a K-State source told ESPN. “They better bring the Tennessee National Guard.” Expectations will be higher this year for Johnson, who threw for 2,712 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his first full season as a starter last year. He also had 605 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. With the depth at wide receiver, K-State’s passing game could flourish this fall.

The decision: Forgo the NFL draft

What his return means: A veteran offensive line that includes four returning starters from a group that allowed the third-fewest sacks in the SEC last season (20). It also means better protection for quarterback DJ Lagway, who could be one of the best in the country if he can stay healthy — and Lagway’s health is the most critical component to Florida’s success this year. According to Pro Football Focus, Slaughter allowed one sack, one QB hit, six QB hurries and eight pressures — with only three penalties — in 728 snaps. The Gators again have one of the toughest schedules in the country, and Slaughter is the kind of veteran they need up front to help Lagway survive it.

The decision: Forgo the NFL draft

What his return means: That the Buckeyes didn’t lose everyone from their national championship defense. Styles had an outstanding 2024 season with 100 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, six sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and five passes defended. His draft stock rose as the Buckeyes ascended through the CFP bracket, but he told reporters at their national championship celebration that he “wasn’t ready to leave yet.” Styles still has room to improve and grow, and his draft stock will continue to rise. He’s now in a position of leadership as one of just three returning starters on defense and the most experienced player among the rising seniors.

The decision: Forgo the NFL draft

What his return means: The Ducks retained a 6-foot, 175-pound receiver who played a key role in advancing them to the top seed in the 2024 CFP, and they’ll need his help again — especially with the departure of Tez Johnson, who entered the NFL draft after leading Oregon with 83 receptions for 898 yards and 10 touchdowns his senior season. Stewart is Oregon’s only returning receiver who had more than 30 receptions in 2024. Stewart, who transferred to Oregon from Texas A&M, had 48 catches last season for 613 yards and tied for the team high with five receiving touchdowns. He was Oregon’s second-most targeted receiver in an offense that finished 13th nationally in passing yards. Stewart’s role will increase, and his decision to return will help the Ducks’ new starting quarterback, which could be former UCLA QB Dante Moore.

The decision: Forgo the NFL draft

What his decision means: The Longhorns have leadership, playoff experience, NFL talent and a familiar face returning to a defense that again has to replace multiple starters from the previous season. Taaffe, a rising senior who ascended from walk-on to All-American, had 71 tackles, 6 TFLs, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 10 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery. His decision to return was driven in large part by the desire to win a national title at Texas and the devastation he said he felt following the loss to Ohio State. Taaffe will get another chance at the Buckeyes in the season opener.

The decision: Withdrew name from portal

What his return means: The Broncos were able to retain top talent from their 2024 CFP run, which featured one of the nation’s top defensive fronts, a huge boost for coach Spencer Danielson as he tries to own the Group of 5’s guaranteed spot as one of the nation’s five highest-ranked conference champions. Fely took visits to Miami and Cal before announcing on social media he planned to return to Boise. Fely, who spent the past three seasons at Boise State, started 28 games in the past two seasons. He had nine TFLs last year and 5.5 sacks.

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Boise State’s Danielson gets deal through 2029

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38 mins ago

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April 30, 2025

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Boise State's Danielson gets deal through 2029

Boise State has finalized a new contract for coach Spencer Danielson, in the wake of leading the Broncos to the College Football Playoff in his first full season as their head coach, the school announced Tuesday.

Danielson has signed a five-year deal through the 2029 season, and sources said it will double his salary, as he’ll average $2.2 million over the course of the deal.

Danielson, 36, led Boise State to a 12-2 record in 2024, which included a Mountain West title and an appearance in the Fiesta Bowl against Penn State.

He has led Boise State to a pair of Mountain West titles, including one during his interim season after taking over in November 2023.

Danielson is 15-3 overall. He lost to UCLA in the LA Bowl, Oregon in the regular season in 2024 and Penn State in the CFP.

“Spencer has proven to be the right leader at the right time for Boise State football and our university as a whole,” director of athletics Jeramiah Dickey said in a statement.

“I truly believe it’s my calling to be the head coach at Boise State,” Danielson said in the statement.

Danielson’s deal will start at $2 million per year this season and increase by $100,000 over the course of the five years. The total deal will end up at nearly $11 million over the five years. He is expected to be the second-highest paid coach in the Mountain West behind UNLV’s Dan Mullen, who is set to make $3.5 million this year. Utah State’s Bronco Mendenhall is also set to make $2 million next year.

It’s a significant jump from Danielson’s original contract, which was a total of $6.5 million over five years after he earned the job with a strong run as the interim.

Danielson was promoted from defensive coordinator to Boise State’s interim coach in the wake of the firing of coach Andy Avalos. From there, Boise State won three games to emphatically to end the regular season, including a blowout of UNLV in the Mountain West title game.

Dickey saw how the team responded to Danielson and hired him as the full-time coach. Boise State parlayed that momentum to a run to the playoff, which included earning a No. 3 seed and a bye. Boise State logged wins over Washington State and twice beat UNLV to earn the Mountain West title last year.

Behind star tailback Ashton Jeanty, the No. 6 pick in the NFL draft, Boise State went undefeated in conference play. Jeanty staying in Boise for the 2024 season was Danielson’s biggest recruiting win, as Jeanty finished as a Heisman Trophy finalist.

Since the 2024 season ended, Boise State has done a strong job retaining players in the wake of its playoff run. The school has also shown significant commitment to both coordinator pay and staff salary pool.

Danielson was named the Mountain West Coach of the Year in 2024 and was a finalist for multiple national coaching honors. He began at Boise State as a graduate assistant in 2017.

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Pac-12 reaches TV deals for OSU, WSU games

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38 mins ago

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April 30, 2025

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Pac-12 reaches TV deals for OSU, WSU games

  • Kyle BonaguraApr 29, 2025, 09:17 AM ET

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    • Covers college football.
    • Joined ESPN in 2014.
    • Attended Washington State University.

The Pac-12 has finalized its television partnerships for the 2025 season, with The CW, ESPN and CBS combining to show the 13 home games involving Oregon State and Washington State.

“Having Pac-12 football featured across three leading broadcasters in CBS, The CW and ESPN in 2025 will provide tremendous exposure to showcase Oregon State, Washington State and our brand in the Pac-12’s final season before expansion,” Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould said in a statement. “We are thrilled to continue our partnership with The CW, to welcome a new partner in CBS Sports and to see a return of Pac-12 football on ESPN.”

The CW, which had the rights to all the home games for OSU and WSU last season, will retain most of the 13-game allotment with nine games on its air, with the other four split between CBS and ESPN.

ESPN will show Cal at Oregon State on Aug. 30 (7:30 p.m. PT) and Houston at Oregon State on Sept. 26 (7:30 p.m. PT), while CBS has the Apple Cup between the Cougars at Washington on Sept. 20 (4:30 or 5 p.m. PT) and the first of two matchups between OSU and WSU on Nov. 1 (4:30 or 5 p.m. PT).

The announcement did not include any details about anything 2026 season and beyond, when Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State and San Diego State will join the conference. However, Gould has made it clear over the past several months that the conference was looking for partners for the 2025 season that indicated they were not interested in only a short-term affiliation.

Before the 2026 season, the Pac-12 also needs to add at least one more football-playing member to fulfill NCAA requirements.

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