Does anyone want to win the World Series? Is any MLB team going to step up and make itself the postseason favorite? In what is shaping up as the most wide-open postseason in recent history, every playoff team or contender is either scuffling, facing key injury issues or has just suffered one of the craziest defeats of the past 60 years (we mean you, Los Angeles Dodgers).

How upside-down is the baseball world right now? Two of the best teams since the All-Star break have been the Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates. The Dodgers have only two more wins than the Colorado Rockies since the break. We’re definitely headed for a wild and unpredictable October.

With that in mind, let’s look at each of the leading playoff contenders and check why each team can — or cannot — win it all. We focused on the 14 teams that have the best shot, though there are a number of others — including the Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals — that could still make the postseason.

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THE FAVORITES

Real or not: The Brewers don’t hit enough home runs to win the World Series.

Years ago, in explaining why Billy Beane’s Oakland Athletics had failed to advance to the World Series in the early 2000s, former ESPN analyst Joe Morgan argued that teams “have to manufacture runs in the postseason.” The A’s played station-to-station baseball, drawing walks and hitting home runs. “If you sit and wait for a three-run homer, you’re still going to be sitting there,” Morgan added.

Well, Morgan would love the Brewers’ postseason chances as they haven’t relied on home runs to generate their offense, ranking 19th in the majors in homers despite ranking second in runs scored. The problem is: Morgan was wrong then with his analysis, and he’d be wrong now. Home runs are a key to postseason success. Here’s the record for teams that outhomer their opponent in the past four postseasons:

2021: 25-2
2022: 22-6
2023: 25-3
2024: 23-8

Add it up, and teams are 95-19 when hitting more home runs. That statistic is a little misleading, however, because there have been 47 postseason games since 2021 when teams hit an equal number of home runs. So, a better way to put it might be: If you do not outhomer your opponents (meaning you hit fewer or the same number of home runs), you still won 66 of the 161 of the postseason games played, or 41%. For the Brewers, the key then could be to win the games where they hit the same number of home runs as their opponent.

Verdict: REAL. Now, there are two scenarios here that can still work in the Brewers’ favor. Their pitchers don’t allow a lot of home runs either, tied for the fifth fewest in the majors (they’ve hit 154 and allowed 148). It’s also possible that Brewers hitters can get hot and hit enough home runs in October. Still, recent history says it’s usually an elite power-hitting team that wins the World Series. Here are the past eight winners with their seasonal rank in home runs and difference in home runs hit and allowed:

2024: Dodgers (third, +35)
2023: Rangers (third, +35)
2022: Astros (fourth, +80)
2021: Braves (third, +56)
2020: Dodgers (first, +52 in just 60 games)
2019: Nationals (13th, +29)
2018: Red Sox (ninth, +32)
2017: Astros (second, +46)

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Real or not: The Dodgers’ bullpen issues will prevent them from winning the World Series.

Let’s turn the clock back 365 days to what we wrote about the Dodgers a year ago: “Pitching injuries will prevent the Dodgers from winning the World Series.” Our verdict: Real.

We were wrong … sort of. The Dodgers’ pitching wasn’t really all that great throughout the postseason with a 4.50 ERA. Only the 2002 Angels won the World Series with a higher postseason ERA during the wild-card era (since 1995). But the 2024 Dodgers were able to overcome an injury-riddled rotation with plenty of offense and enough quality relief work at the right moments — especially with that bullpen game shutout in Game 4 of the NLDS to stay alive against the Padres.

This year, the concern is the opposite: The rotation is finally getting healthy at the right time, but the bullpen is a mess as it has battled injuries all season and ranks 19th in the majors in ERA. Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, two key free agent additions, have combined to allow 17 home runs with an ERA around 4.50. Scott has been the primary closer but has nine blown saves. After giving up a walk-off home run Friday, Scott said, “Baseball hates me right now.”

It didn’t like him Saturday either, when he and Blake Treinen combined to lose the game after Yoshinobu Yamamoto was removed after losing his no-hitter with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.

Verdict: NOT REAL. Maybe we just don’t want to be wrong like last year, but it’s also true that any bullpen can get hot for a month. The Rangers were 24th in bullpen ERA in 2023, the Atlanta Braves 11th in 2021 and the Washington Nationals dead last in 2019, yet all three teams won it all. The Dodgers still have a talented group that is reasonably healthy now with Treinen and Michael Kopech back from the injuries that had wiped out much of their 2025 seasons, plus a group deep in left-handers that will give manager Dave Roberts maximum matchup options. Don’t be surprised if this pen steps up after scuffling all season.

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Real or not: Jhoan Duran is finally the closer the Phillies needed.

Speaking of bullpens, that has certainly been an issue for the Phillies the past two postseasons, when Craig Kimbrel lost two games in the 2023 NLCS and then Jeff Hoffman lost two games in last year’s NLDS. The Phillies had hoped Jordan Romano would replace Hoffman in the closer role, but Romano struggled, so president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski went big at the trade deadline, dealing top catching prospect Eduardo Tait to acquire Minnesota Twins closer Jhoan Duran.

In Duran, the Phillies have their best closer since … well, 2008, when Brad Lidge had a perfect season in going 48-for-48 in saves and the team last won a World Series. Duran throws 100 mph with a nasty splitter, but his best attribute? He induces grounders and keeps the ball in the park, having served up just one home run all season.

Verdict: REAL. Duran doesn’t guarantee anything, of course. Remember, Jose Alvarado is ineligible for the postseason after his earlier PED suspension, which will leave the pen a little thin. Zack Wheeler is out for the season, so Cristopher Sanchez will have to respond as the new No. 1 starter in the playoffs. The offense is heavily dependent on Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper and has had some players, such as Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott, struggle in the postseason in recent years. But at least Phillies fans can feel good if the team gets a lead late in the game.

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Real or not: The Tigers have an ace in Tarik Skubal, but their lack of a No. 2 starter is a big problem.

Who will start the second game of the playoffs for the Tigers? We’re in September, and that question remains unanswered. It’s probably Jack Flaherty, who has an excellent strikeout rate (171 in 146⅔ innings) but also has an ERA over 5.00 since late April, mixing good starts with bad ones (he has allowed five or more runs seven times). Casey Mize? Charlie Morton? A bullpen game? Manager A.J. Hinch can only hope one of those guys gets hot these final weeks and makes his decision a little easier.

But how necessary is it to have a strong No. 2 starter? Here are the pitchers who started the second playoff game for the past eight champions:

2024 Dodgers: Jack Flaherty (6-2, 3.58 ERA)
2023 Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi (12-5. 3.63 ERA)
2022 Astros: Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA)
2021 Braves: Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA)
2020 Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.16 ERA)
2019 Nationals: Patrick Corbin (14-7, 3.25 ERA)*
2018 Red Sox: David Price (16-7, 3.58 ERA)
2017 Astros: Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA)

(*Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg both pitched in the wild-card game, so Corbin started Game 1 of the NLDS.)

All these pitchers had a lower ERA than Detroit’s No. 2 options. Several of them had big postseasons: Eovaldi went 5-0 in six starts; Valdez went 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA; Fried went 2-2, but the two wins were scoreless outings, including the World Series clincher; even Kershaw broke his postseason jinx in 2020 and went 4-1 in five starts.

Verdict: NOT REAL. Based on this list, it does appear that the Tigers could use a better second guy behind Skubal. On the other hand, over the past four postseasons, starters have pitched only 50% of all innings. You can sort of fake your way through the playoffs with your rotation like the Dodgers did last year or the Braves did in 2021. If Skubal dominates and the bullpen can withstand a lot of innings, the Tigers can still pull off their first title since 1984.

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Real or not: The Blue Jays’ bullpen will be their downfall.

Yep, another bullpen issue to worry about. Manager John Schneider has stuck with the aforementioned Jeff Hoffman — now a Blue Jay — as his closer all season even though Hoffman has a 4.77 ERA, 7 blown saves and 6 losses and is tied for the major league lead in home runs allowed by a reliever at 14. That certainly seems like something that could haunt the Blue Jays in October. Overall, their pen ranks 16th in ERA and ninth in win probability added.

Verdict: NOT REAL. It doesn’t help the confidence of Blue Jays fans that Schneider has made some questionable bullpen moves in previous postseasons — against Seattle in the 2022 wild-card series and that odd very quick hook with Jose Berrios in 2023. But the Blue Jays have gone 0-6 in the playoffs since 2020 because they haven’t hit — they slashed .230/.288/.330 with just four home runs in the six games. Hoffman still has strikeout stuff and could get on a roll, but Toronto’s offense will determine its fate.

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Real or not: Aaron Judge will have to hit — and hit big — in the postseason for the Yankees to make a run.

Judge has been criticized for his postseason production in his career, hitting .205/.318/.450 with 16 home runs and 34 RBIs in 58 games. Fair enough, as that is far below what he’s done in the regular season. He was even worse in the 2022 and 2024 postseasons — when he had his two monster offensive regular seasons — with a .165/.284/.365 combined slash line. The Yankees did reach the World Series last year, in part because Judge was at least better than he was in 2022, but he didn’t do much against the Dodgers until he homered in the final game. Of concern, of course, is Judge’s shoulder injury; his numbers are down since he missed 10 days — albeit still good with an OPS close to .900 — and although he finally played a game in right field, he clearly can’t throw at all.

Verdict: REAL. Judge has probably shouldered too much of the blame for the Yankees’ postseason failures since his arrival in 2017, although he wasn’t the one who called on a rusty Nestor Cortes to face Freddie Freeman in Game 1 of last year’s World Series. It’s worth noting that the Yankees lead the majors in home runs by a huge margin — 33 more than the Mariners, and every player in their starting lineup Sunday has hit at least 19. Still, the Yankees are at their best when Judge is at his best. They need Judge to do what Corey Seager did for the Rangers in 2023 or what Freeman did for the Dodgers in 2024.

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Real or not: The Cubs’ lineup depth is perfect for the postseason.

The Yankees rely heavily on Judge, but the Cubs arguably have an above-average hitter at all nine lineup spots. Matt Shaw is the only regular with a weighted runs created (wRC+) below league average, but the rookie third baseman has been excellent since the All-Star break, hitting .275/.329/.573 with nine home runs. His breakout has been counterbalanced by the slumps of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki, but the Cubs still have one of the better offenses in the majors on the season.

Of note, here are recent World Series winners who have had lineup depth:

2024 Dodgers: Seven regulars with an above-average wRC+ (and two just below with a 98 wRC+)

2023 Rangers: 11 regulars above average (including September call-up Evan Carter)

2022 Astros: Seven regulars above average (two weak spots in Yuli Gurriel and Martin Maldonado, but Gurriel had a good postseason)

2021 Braves: Seven regulars above average and one just below at a 99 wRC+ (of the nine postseason regulars, only catcher Travis d’Arnaud was well below average in the regular season)

You get the idea. The last World Series champ with what might be labeled an imbalanced offense was the 2018 Red Sox, who relied heavily on superstar seasons from Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez (and got a hot October from Steve Pearce).

Verdict: REAL. The Cubs’ offense was terrible in August, so it’s possible it peaked too early, especially if PCA can’t break out of this slump. But this is also the kind of lineup that has won the World Series, one that is solid from 1 through 9 and doesn’t give the opposing pitching staff any easy spots. It makes the Cubs serious contenders, although their likely second-place division finish renders the task a little harder because they’ll have to get through the wild-card series.

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THE POTENTIAL SPOILERS

Real or not: Without Roman Anthony, you can kiss a World Series title goodbye.

The rookie phenom just went down with a strained oblique and could miss four to six weeks, which means he might be out for at least the start of the postseason. With Anthony in the starting lineup, the Red Sox are 40-26, but when he hasn’t started they’re under .500. Anthony had not only been the spark at the top of the lineup with a .396 OBP but was starting to tap into his power in August, hitting .317/.400/.561 with six home runs in 21 games before the injury. Now, the Red Sox will not only have to hold on to a playoff spot without him, but they will probably need to win at least a postseason series or two without him.

Verdict: NOT REAL. It’s a huge blow, especially given his hot bat of late, but the record with Anthony in the lineup coincides with better performances up and down the roster since the beginning of July — especially from the work of Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello in the rotation to help back up ace Garrett Crochet.

The Red Sox also have the best closer in the game in 2025 in Aroldis Chapman, who has a ridiculous .346 OPS allowed and 0.98 ERA; a red-hot setup reliever in Garrett Whitlock (a 1.47 ERA and no home runs since mid-May); and enough depth to fill in for Anthony, especially if they can get Wilyer Abreu back before the end of the regular season. It won’t be easy without Anthony, but it could be a similar scenario to the Braves losing Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2021 and still winning the World Series.

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Real or not: The Mets will have to rely on rookie starters Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong — and it might work.

The Mets’ rotation was outstanding early in the season (2.24 ERA in April). Then it was mediocre. Then, in August, it turned into the 1962 Mets with a 5.41 ERA. Kodai Senga, after going winless in his past nine starts since coming off the injured list, was recently sent down to Triple-A. The rotation is now heavily dependent on McLean and Tong.

McLean is 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his first four career starts, showcasing a deep arsenal of pitches and inducing a high rate of ground balls with just one home run in 26⅓ innings. Tong, the minor league leader in ERA and strikeouts, has made two major league starts, winning his debut before giving up three home runs in a loss to the Reds on Saturday (the only three hits he allowed). The Mets then turned to a third rookie starter in Brandon Sproat, who made his debut Sunday.

Can this work? Right now, a Mets playoff rotation might go David Peterson, Clay Holmes, McLean and Tong, unless Sean Manaea figures things out or Senga gets back on track. In the wild-card era, 15 rookie pitchers have started a postseason game for the eventual World Series champs. But two of those were veterans from Japan, one was a 32-year-old Orlando Hernandez in 1998, two were openers for the Braves in 2021, one was opener Ben Casparius last year for the Dodgers, and two were quick-hook starters for the Dodgers in 2020 (Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin).

That leaves seven traditional rookies since 1995 who started for a World Series winner: Ian Anderson, 2021 Braves (four postseason starts); Madison Bumgarner, 2010 Giants (three starts); Anthony Reyes, 2006 Cardinals (two starts); Dontrelle Willis, 2003 Marlins (two starts); John Lackey, 2002 Angels (three starts); and Livan Hernandez and Tony Saunders, 1997 Marlins (combined five starts).

So, there you go, a team has won the World Series with two rookie starters before: the 1997 Marlins, although Hernandez had 17 career starts before the postseason and Saunders had 21 (and all the others above had at least 18 starts). No World Series winner in the expanded playoff era has used a rookie starter as inexperienced as McLean and Tong will be in October.

Verdict: REAL. OK, so history says a Mets title is unlikely to happen — and that’s before even factoring in their own tortured playoff history since winning in 1986. But these two rookie starters are ultra talented, and the Mets have an offense that can score a lot of runs when it’s clicking and an elite closer in Edwin Diaz. The key might not be McLean and Tong, but whether the veteran starters have anything left in the tank — Peterson and Holmes have already far exceeded their season highs in innings — and whether Ryan Helsley can find his groove to help set up Diaz.

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Real or not: Like the Brewers, the Padres don’t hit enough home runs to win it all.

Indeed, San Diego’s lack of power is even more pronounced: Only the Pirates have hit fewer home runs than the Padres’ meager total of 127. Ah, but the Padres play in a tough park to hit home runs. Except they are still next to last in home runs hit on the road. They did add some power at the trade deadline, however, acquiring Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn, and they did produce their best offensive month of the season in August.

Verdict: REAL. If we’re going to hammer the Brewers, it seems fair to knock the Padres as well, given that Milwaukee has scored a lot more runs than San Diego. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are big names but have combined for just 43 home runs. And dare we remind you what happened against the Dodgers in last year’s NLDS, when the Padres were shut out in the final two games.

The Padres’ offense is better than it was before the deadline, and they will try to ride their bullpen to a championship — although losing Jason Adam is a big blow — but I’m skeptical they can produce enough offense over three or four rounds of the postseason unless Machado and Tatis rise to the occasion.

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Real or not: Yordan Alvarez ‘s return gives the Astros enough offense.

Alvarez isn’t the only blast from the past to recently return to the roster. The Astros have struggled all season to fill the rotation behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, but Cristian Javier has made five starts since his return from Tommy John surgery, and Luis Garcia just made his second on Sunday. It’s too early to know what level of effectiveness they can reach, but both have started games in the World Series in the past (Javier started that combined no-hitter game against the Phillies in 2022).

It’s Alvarez who should make the biggest impact after missing most of the season. The Astros are 22nd in the majors in runs and tied for 17th in home runs. Alvarez changes that dynamic, and he has played some left field since his return, allowing manager Joe Espada to keep Jose Altuve in a DH role. Christian Walker has found himself after a terrible first three months as well. It’s not a great offense even with Alvarez, but it might be good enough.

Verdict: REAL. The Astros will need to get Josh Hader back from his shoulder injury — his postseason is still up in the air — but in a wide-open American League, the Astros have the necessary ingredients: two ace-level starters, one of the best hitters in the sport in Alvarez (who has produced in the postseason with a .944 OPS) and a potentially lethal bullpen. The Astros shouldn’t be here after losing Alex Bregman and trading Kyle Tucker this past offseason, but here they are.

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Real or not: You can’t win the World Series if you can’t win on the road.

Everyone loved the Mariners after they acquired Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the trade deadline, but the team hasn’t taken off like many expected — mostly because it has been absolutely miserable on the road of late. After beating the Braves on Sunday to win the series, the Mariners snapped a skid of six straight losing series on the road (and 0-6-1 in their previous seven). Their road record is now 34-41, and the rotation ERA on the road is just under 5.00.

But can they still win the World Series? Road records for recent World Series winners:

2024 Dodgers: 46-35
2023 Rangers: 40-41
2022 Astros: 51-30
2021 Braves: 46-35
2019 Nationals: 43-38
2018 Red Sox: 51-30
2017 Astros: 53-38

Put it this way: The 2023 Rangers are the only World Series winner since the 2006 Cardinals with a losing record on the road, and they were just a game under.

Verdict: REAL. Unless the Mariners mount a furious rally to overtake the Astros and win the AL West, they will also likely have to play the wild-card series on the road (assuming they even win a spot). Given how poorly they’ve played away from home, the first trip to the World Series in franchise history seems doubtful.

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Real or not: With Nathan Eovaldi out for the year, the Rangers have no chance.

Eovaldi isn’t the only injured Ranger: Marcus Semien will miss at least the rest of the regular season with a broken foot, Corey Seager is out following an appendectomy (he hopes to return before the end of the season), Evan Carter is out for the season with a fractured wrist and even Adolis Garcia just landed on the IL with a quad strain. But Eovaldi had been one of the best starters in the majors with an 11-3 record and 1.73 ERA, plus he was the hero of the 2023 World Series run when he went 5-0 in six starts.

Can you win without your ace? Well, it has happened before, including with the Rangers in 2023 when they were without Jacob deGrom. The Cardinals won in 2011 even though Adam Wainwright, coming off a second-place finish in the Cy Young voting, missed the entire season. Heck, the Dodgers won last year with Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw unable to pitch.

Verdict: NOT REAL. This is starting to look like a Bruce Bochy special, isn’t it? The Rangers sneak in, Bochy figures out his bullpen just at the right time, deGrom and Merrill Kelly win their starts, and Seager returns to earn yet another World Series MVP Award. Never overlook a Bochy-managed team in the postseason. The Rangers just have to get in.

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Real or not: Bobby Witt Jr. doesn’t have enough help in this lineup.

Two months ago, that looked like the case. But since July 1, only the Brewers, Red Sox and Blue Jays have better records than the Royals — and the lineup suddenly looks respectable. The Royals are eighth in the majors in home runs and 13th in runs scored since the beginning of July — and were even better in August after adding several players at the trade deadline. Here are some Royal batting lines since July 1:

Witt: .308/.376/.526, 10 HRs
Vinnie Pasquantino: .255/.318/.555, 17 HRs
Salvador Perez: .249/.292/.535, 16 HRs
Maikel Garcia: .272/.347/.461, 8 HRs
Mike Yastrzemski: .233/.322/.524, 7 HRs

Verdict: NOT REAL. Given that their home park is one of the toughest for home runs in the majors, this now looks like an offense with enough power to make a postseason run. Though Kris Bubic is out for the season, Cole Ragans made a rehab start in Triple-A on Sunday. If he makes it back to bolster the rotation, the Royals look like a team that could surprise in October.

Two full weeks of games aren’t enough to make firm conclusions about teams, but the limited sample size highlighted some possible concerns for contenders.

LSU, Penn State and Georgia had a hard time pulling away from inferior competition in Week 2. Clemson trailed Troy 16-3 at halftime before finding its way in the second half to avoid an 0-2 start. After limited cowbell prep, Arizona State‘s ears will be ringing for a while as a last-minute defensive breakdown doomed the defending Big 12 champs against Mississippi State in Starkville. Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood‘s plan to shock the world has been put on hold as Brent Venables’ Oklahoma defense humbled the nation’s No. 1 recruit in Norman.

Illinois overcame early offensive line struggles to pounce on mistake-ridden Duke. Iowa State finally broke the spell Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz had cast on its home stadium, but still only mustered 16 points in victory. This was a get-right week for Alabama and Arch Manning, and further proof that South Florida is a team to watch after its shocker in The Swamp.

But most teams have plenty to fix and improve. Here’s our view of the Top 25 coming out of Week 2. — Adam Rittenberg

Previous ranking: 1

All the defending national champions have done through two weeks is defeat the No. 1 team in the country before hammering Grambling, 70-0. So, it’s not easy to nitpick the Buckeyes thus far. But the biggest question mark going forward is whether Ohio State can run the ball when it needs to against the best in college football. Last year, the Buckeyes had a dynamic running back tandem in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, who both rushed for 1,000 yards and became second-round draft picks. But in Week 1 this year, the Buckeyes managed just 77 yards on 34 carries in the 14-7 victory over Texas. The trio of CJ Donaldson, James Peoples and freshman Bo Jackson is capable of also producing a prolific rushing attack. So is the offensive line. The Buckeyes just have to prove it. — Jake Trotter

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Previous ranking: 3

LSU’s offense began with an interception and missed field goal and never really shifted all the way into gear, but the Tigers still scored a comfortable 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech thanks to a defense that has now allowed just 17 points in two games. They held the Bulldogs to 154 yards and a 3-for-13 performance on third downs, and that was all that ended up mattering. Still, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier was anything but sharp: Including three sacks, his 44 pass attempts netted just 210 yards despite a good game from Barion Brown (94 receiving yards, plus a 15-yard run). Running back Caden Durham gained just 29 yards in 13 carries, too. The Tigers got away with it, but with a frustrated Florida team visiting next week, the offense will need to dial back in next Saturday. — Bill Connelly

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Previous ranking: 2

The Nittany Lions couldn’t finish off drives early playing in poor weather during a 34-0 victory over Florida International. After scoring just one touchdown in the first half, Penn State finally got going. Still, the Nittany Lions went just 3-of-12 on third down, a continuation of the previous season, when they ranked 14th in the Big Ten with a third-down conversion rate of 36%. Penn State went 3-of-11 in a home loss to Ohio State and in the CFP semifinals loss to Notre Dame. The Nittany Lions have the goods to win a national championship. But they need to improve on third down, especially ahead of a big Sept. 27 clash against Oregon. — Trotter

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Previous ranking: 6

There’s not much to nitpick when a team outgains its opponent by over 400 yards, scores 69 points in three quarters and only allows a field goal on defense. But if there is anyone out there who will still find things to improve, it’s Oregon coach Dan Lanning. Despite the fact that the Ducks trounced Oklahoma State 69-3 after the two coaches traded comments on their program’s financial resources earlier in the week, Lanning was all business and called out the team’s five penalties in the first half as something Oregon can improve on. It was that kind of day for Oregon, which looked every bit the part of a dominant playoff team. Lanning said there was no extra motivation for the Ducks heading into this game, but they welcomed the gasoline that Cowboys coach Mike Gundy poured onto their fire with his comments. Safe to say other teams have been warned: Before talking about the Ducks, try to keep up with them first. — Paolo Uggetti

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Previous ranking: 5

Carson Beck opened the Hurricanes’ 45-3 win over Bethune-Cookman with 15 straight completions, a single-game school record as they had a much easier time against the Wildcats compared to their season-opening win against Notre Dame. Beck threw two touchdown passes to CJ Daniels and Mark Fletcher Jr. had a few touchdown runs. There isn’t much to take away from a game like that, so let’s go back to the Notre Dame game. Miami had a double-digit lead in the third quarter, but its offense stalled on four straight drives, and the Hurricanes had a hard time getting consistent yards out of their run game. The next time the Hurricanes are in a close game, that will be a key area to monitor for improvement. — Andrea Adelson

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Previous ranking: 4

The Bulldogs’ 28-6 win against FCS program Austin Peay was hardly the kind of performance coach Kirby Smart wanted going into next week’s SEC opener at high-flying Tennessee. Georgia’s offense struggled to get the ball down the field and couldn’t score on four straight plays from the 1-yard line against the Governors’ undersized defensive front at the end of the first half. Injuries have hampered Georgia’s offensive line (starting right guard Juan Gaston and right tackle Earnest Greene III didn’t play against Austin Peay), and new starting quarterback Gunner Stockton is still building his confidence. He completed 26 of 34 passes for 227 yards, but didn’t see a couple of open receivers running down the field. The good news: Georgia’s defense continued its hot start, limiting the Governors to only 10 first downs and 196 yards of offense. It will need a similar performance if the Bulldogs are going to beat the Vols for a ninth straight time. — Mark Schlabach

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Previous ranking: 7

It wasn’t a completely dominant performance by the Longhorns against San José State, though the outcome was never in doubt. There were 12 penalties, a few dropped passes, and plenty to work on. But when it was clean, Texas put on a show, with Arch Manning throwing four touchdown passes in a five-minute span, including on three consecutive pass attempts, to put fans at ease. The Texas running game was spotty, with CJ Baxter leading the way with 64 yards, but still averaged 4.8 yards per carry. With two more home games against UTEP and Sam Houston awaiting, the Longhorns are hoping to keep fine-tuning their offense to suit Manning, with coach Steve Sarkisian saying this week was more to his style. The defense is championship-caliber. If the offense catches up, Sarkisian will feel good about the SEC stretch coming up. — Dave Wilson

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Previous ranking: 8

After an opening-week loss to Miami, Notre Dame had a breather in Week 2, which was probably good timing. CJ Carr was solid in his debut, but getting an opportunity to use the off week to study his early miscues against the Hurricanes could prove invaluable as the Irish prep for a Week 3 showdown with Texas A&M. If Notre Dame can topple the Aggies, the rest of the schedule sets up nicely for a playoff run. If it doesn’t, an 0-2 start could have the Irish playing to an inside straight the rest of the way. — David Hale

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Previous ranking: 13

It is hard to find too many early areas of concern for the Seminoles, who are riding high after following up their upset win over Alabama with a 77-3 win over East Texas A&M. Florida State scored touchdowns on its first 10 drives and had 729 total yards of offense. Thirteen different players had a carry. Tommy Castellanos connected on long plays to receiver Duce Robinson multiple times as well. But if there is one question mark still, it is what happens when an opponent stops the run and Florida State has to rely more heavily on its passing game. The Seminoles have rushed for nearly 600 yards in two games, while Castellanos has only attempted 25 total passes. While we saw explosive plays against East Texas A&M, there will be tougher challenges ahead. — Adelson

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Previous ranking: 12

The Cyclones out-Iowa’d Iowa to snap their six-game home losing streak to their in-state rivals in a 16-13 win. There wasn’t much offense to recap as neither team reached the 250-yard mark or scored a touchdown in the second half. What Iowa State did have, however, is one of the most dangerous weapons in college football: kicker Kyle Konrardy. After booming a 63-yard field goal last week, he kicked three more field goals on Saturday, including the game winner from 54 yards with 6:29 left in the game. His range effectively shortens the field for Iowa State and in a game like this one, that proved to be the difference. — Kyle Bonagura

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Previous ranking: 23

The Sooners rode a smothering defensive performance and the playmaking of quarterback John Mateer to one of the most important wins of the Brent Venables era in a 24-13 victory over Michigan Saturday night. But self-inflicted wounds nearly cost Oklahoma in Week 2. While the Wolverines’ offense largely languished, the Sooners gifted Michigan three of its four first downs before halftime via defensive penalties. Isaiah Sategna III‘s muffed punt and Tate Sandell‘s 42-yard field goal miss marked a pair of special teams blunders. And Mateer wasn’t immune, either, overthrowing a receiver for a first-quarter interception before sprinkling in a handful of other miscues into an otherwise exhilarating performance. Altogether, the series of errors left the door open for a Wolverines comeback. And while Michigan couldn’t make the Sooners pay for their mistakes Saturday night, others surely will when Oklahoma dives into SEC play later this fall. — Eli Lederman

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Previous ranking: 11

A week after giving up 203 rushing yards to UTSA, the Aggies emphasized consistency on defense, and held Utah State to 2.2 yards per carry on 38 attempts. The big story was that the Aggies are developing their big-play passing offense, something that was a must this offseason. Marcel Reed threw for 220 yards and four TDs, including a 34-yarder to Terry Bussey, a five-star signee a year ago, for his first TD reception, and Mario Craver caught a 72-yarder from backup Miles O’Neill. Cashius Howell had himself a day, sacking Utah State QB Bryson Barnes three times on three consecutive plays. Elko was pleased with the progress, but with a trip to South Bend looming to face Notre Dame, the real test begins. Last year, coach Marcus Freeman and the Irish held the Aggies to 246 yards — just 100 of those passing, with two interceptions — and 13 points in a season-opening loss. Now, it’s time to see if the offseason makeover can provide new results. — Wilson

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Previous ranking: 15

The Illini passed their first road test of the season, pulling away from Duke for a 26-point win. But a strong second half shouldn’t completely mask some potential problems, namely a run game that stalled for a while before opening up. Illinois had minus-5 rushing yards in the first half and allowed four sacks. Normally, that equals a deficit on the road. To Illinois’ credit, it limited major mistakes of its own and repeatedly capitalized on the Blue Devils’ five turnovers and converted them into 21 points. Quarterback Luke Altmyer was excellent and Illinois is showing greater explosiveness in the passing game with Hank Beatty and others. But the Illini can’t count on being plus-5 in turnover margin in every key game, and at some point, will need their running game to show up from start to finish. Probably on Sept. 20 in the Big Ten opener at Indiana. — Rittenberg

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Previous ranking: 10

Shane Beamer knows the Gamecocks’ offense has plenty to clean up after a sluggish start against South Carolina State on Saturday night. The Gamecocks struggled to sustain drives in the first half and didn’t score their first offensive touchdown until the third quarter of their 38-10 win. A lengthy weather delay and tough field position played a factor, and Vicari Swain stepped up with two more punt return touchdowns in the second quarter. But this LaNorris Sellers-led offense is too talented to put up just 128 passing yards and 125 rushing yards against an FCS defense. Better execution and efficiency are a must with Vanderbilt and Missouri, two teams that put up big points on Power 4 foes Saturday, up next on the schedule. — Max Olson

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Previous ranking: 18

You’re not going to find much to nitpick about Tennessee’s 72-17 blowout of East Tennessee State. Transfer QB Joey Aguilar continued his impressive start with 288 passing yards, two TDs, no sacks and no turnovers. The Vols’ offense racked up 717 yards, fourth-most in the Josh Heupel era, and has a 100% red zone conversion rate this season. One key question as the showdown with Georgia looms is the health of Tennessee’s defensive line. Starting defensive tackle Jaxson Moi missed the ETSU game along with Daevin Hobbs and Tyree Weathersby. Getting Moi back in the lineup this week would be a big deal as the Vols get ready to face the Bulldogs’ rushing attack. — Olson

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Previous ranking: 9

The Tigers’ offense continued to look lost in Week 2 against Troy, falling behind 16-3 in the first half before engineering a strong second-half comeback. If the Tigers are looking for a silver lining, the second half at least offered a few. Cade Klubnik completed 8 of 9 passes for 99 yards and two touchdowns. Adam Randall carried 15 times for 91 yards. The defense didn’t surrender a point. Still, if things look this disjointed against Troy, a road trip to Georgia Tech in Week 3 could be incredibly dangerous. — Hale

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Previous ranking: 21

The Utes welcomed their entry into the Top 25 with a thorough dispatch of Cal Poly by a score of 63-9. It was a dominant affair that left little to worry about for the Utes, who looked like a far more explosive and efficient team on offense through two games than they did all last year. Zooming out and looking ahead, it will be interesting to see if quarterback Devon Dampier can maintain the kind of load and production he has had, especially with his legs. Through two games, the New Mexico transfer is tied with Wayshawn Parker as the Utes’ leading rusher and already has carried the ball 20 times. So far, Dampier seems up to the task, but his importance to the Utah offense may require a bit more management of his reps, especially if it means avoiding injury. — Uggetti

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Previous ranking: 19

The past five Ole Miss-Kentucky games have been decided by one score, but unlike last year, Ole Miss made big plays when it counted and survived, 30-23. Austin Simmons threw two first-quarter interceptions but led six scoring drives afterward and finished with 235 passing yards and a rushing touchdown. Kewan Lacy, meanwhile, rushed for 138 yards and a score. The Rebels’ defense held UK’s Zach Calzada to 149 passing yards and made a pair of fourth-down stops in the fourth quarter. That allowed their lead to hold up. Ole Miss is 2-0 and has now exorcised one of the demons of 2024; the Rebels had a playoff-caliber team but dropped heartbreakers to Kentucky, LSU and Florida. They’ll get their next revenge attempt in three weeks when LSU comes to town. — Connelly

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Previous ranking: NR

If we’re judging teams purely on who they’ve beat, who has had a better start to the season than the South Florida Bulls? Alex Golesh’s squad was dominant in a 34-7 win over No. 25 Boise State and showed its resilience in a 18-16 upset of No. 13 Florida in The Swamp on Saturday night. The Gators’ many mistakes will get all the attention, but Byrum Brown leading USF on an 87-yard winning drive in the final two minutes was nonetheless impressive. The Bulls are No. 3 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, and now they’ll try to regroup and go pull off another road stunner at No. 5 Miami. Win or lose, this team clearly has the goods to chase a College Football Playoff bid. — Olson

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Previous ranking: 22

It won’t erase a season-opening loss at Florida State, but Alabama’s 73-0 rout of UL Monroe was exactly what it needed in rebuilding its confidence. The Crimson Tide scored on each of their first 11 possessions (10 touchdowns and one field goal), and quarterback Ty Simpson completed a school-record 17 straight passes for 226 yards with three touchdowns. Alabama ran for 212 yards and didn’t commit a turnover. The Tide defense played much better, limiting the Warhawks to 148 yards of offense and forcing three turnovers. The pressure on second-year coach Kalen DeBoer should subside, for at least a few days, and the Tide will be heavy favorites in Saturday’s home game against Wisconsin. They’ll get a week off before their first SEC road game at Georgia on Sept. 27. — Schlabach

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Previous ranking: NR

The Red Raiders led Kent State 48-0 at halftime, a week after leading the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions 47-0 at the half. They have not found much of a fight yet, including scoring on their first 14 possessions of the season. Punter Jack Burgess finally got some work in this week with two kicks. Most importantly, quarterback Behren Morton, who has struggled with a right leg injury, was able to play the entire first half before resting. The Red Raiders step up competition this weekend against Oregon State in Lubbock, although the Beavers just fell to 0-2. But with a big test awaiting against a resurgent Utah team in Salt Lake City at the beginning of Big 12 play next week, Tech will look to stay sharp and injury-free. — Wilson

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Previous ranking: 25

Curt Cignetti challenged his team after a Week 1 win that was never in doubt but also quite sloppy, especially inside the red zone, where the offense failed to score on three opportunities against Old Dominion. The Hoosiers responded nicely by bulldozing Kennesaw State, scoring touchdowns on eight of their first 10 complete drives, including a stretch of five straight in the second half. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza was much sharper, passing for 245 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Three players added rushing touchdowns, led by Lee Beebe Jr., as IU’s increased depth at running back has shown up early. Safety Louis Moore has been very good so far for the Hoosiers’ defense. Anything less than dominance will not satisfy Cignetti, especially with the Big Ten opener against Illinois looming Sept. 20. — Rittenberg

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Previous ranking: 24

TCU coach Sonny Dykes’ biggest takeaway from the Horned Frogs’ 48-14 humiliation of North Carolina in Bill Belichick’s debut was his team’s maturity. Two years ago, the Frogs fell to Colorado in Deion Sanders’ first game and the focus this year was blocking out the noise and making it about themselves. Now, looking forward, TCU found a running game it lacked last year, piling up 258 yards on the ground, and Josh Hoover, one of the best returning QBs in the country, continued to shine, throwing for 284 yards and two touchdown passes. After a Monday Labor Day game, the Frogs had a bye week. So they’ll try to regroup with Abilene Christian this week, the only non-Power 4 team on their schedule this season, before a home game against old rival SMU, who humbled the Frogs 66-42 last year, at home. That one will go a long way in determining if TCU is back on its 2022 trajectory. — Wilson

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Previous ranking: 14

Among the issues in the Wolverines’ Week 2 loss at Oklahoma: an inability to create chunk plays. Michigan’s lone touchdown came on Justice Haynes‘ 75-yard rushing score on the first offensive snap of the second half. However, the touchdown marked the Wolverines’ only run over 10 yards and one of only five total plays of 15 or more yards produced by first-year offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey’s attack against the Sooners. That came after Michigan logged only three carries over 10 yards against New Mexico in Week 1, as well. There are plenty of reasons to believe the Wolverines can get better — the development of quarterback Bryce Underwood, consistent production from the receivers, more consistency throughout time in Lindsey’s offense, etc. — but for now, Michigan’s offense is still sorely lacking explosiveness. — Lederman

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Previous ranking: NR

Down 21-6 early because of a fumble return score and a couple of big Jalon Daniels passes, Missouri settled down, began dominating the ball, and eventually put down hated rival Kansas, 42-31. The Tigers had a 300-yard passer (Beau Pribula), two 100-yard rushers (Jamal Roberts and Ahmad Hardy) and a 100-yard receiver (Kevin Coleman Jr.) and outgained the Jayhawks, 595-254, with a huge time-of-possession edge. But they needed a pair of go-ahead touchdowns from tight end Brett Norfleet and, finally, a 63-yard TD run from Roberts to put the game away. Regardless, they won the first Border Showdown in 14 years and moved to 2-0. And in two games as a Tiger, Pribula has completed 53 of 67 passes (79%) for 617 yards and five TDs and no picks. Hard to top that. — Connelly

We told you so. The worse a week looks on paper, the more entertaining it turns out to be. After a Week 1 that featured bright, flashy matchups and no particularly classic games, Week 2 was the exact opposite. It was light in marquee matchups but dazzling from noon to midnight. (OK, the late-evening session wasn’t amazing, but still.) There was a tense finish or an overtime game everywhere you looked.

We got points, too! After FBS vs. FBS games averaged just 23.0 points per team in Week 1, we jumped up to a far more normal 26.9 per team in Week 2, and this week’s Favorite Games of the Weekend section below — one that features far more than the customary 10 games because I couldn’t help myself — has scores like 48-45, 42-40, 36-35, 43-36, 56-49 and 39-38.

Saturday was a delight. And it told us very little about what to expect moving forward. No top teams were heavily tested — unless you still consider Clemson a top team — and so many of the players who enjoyed big Week 1s were bit players this time around. In that regard, the 2025 season hasn’t really made any sense yet. FCS teams have looked more overwhelmed than ever in buy games but have also scored four wins, nearly as many as they had all of last season. Alabama played its worst game in nearly two decades, then responded with near perfection. No preseason Heisman favorite has looked the part twice (or, in a few cases, once).

It’s all a big — and incredibly delightful — mess. Let’s therefore use this space to play a game of true or false. What do we think we know two weeks into 2025?

True or false: So Arch Manning is the best QB in the SEC after all?

FALSE (HIS NAME’S NOT BEAU PRIBULA).

After a humbling season debut against Ohio State’s defense — quite possibly the best he’ll see all year — Texas’ Arch Manning settled in Saturday against San José State. In the Longhorns’ easy 38-7 win, he threw for 295 yards and four touchdowns, sprinkling in a trio of non-sack rushes for 30 yards and another score. After another slow start (his first six passes netted just 11 yards), he connected for touchdown passes on four of five throws, and with major help from a defense that was forcing a cascade of turnovers, the Horns went up 28-0 before the Spartans knew what hit them. This one was easy.

So that’s it then? Manning is great now and the Horns are ready to roll through the rest of the schedule? Not necessarily. Manning was still inefficient — of his 31 dropbacks, 20 gained four or fewer yards — and took some ill-advised hits in the pocket. He’s still very much a work in progress, and hey, that’s fine: With an elite defense and fantastic overall talent, Texas is going to win most of its games, and the goal is to peak in mid-January, not mid-September.

It only matters so much how you look heading into Week 3. But considering how much of a storyline SEC quarterback play was guaranteed to be this season, with so many talented teams starting new or inexperienced signal-callers, here’s an interesting question for you: If you had to win a vital game this coming Saturday, which SEC quarterback would you choose to do it? Never mind who the best QB will be at the start of 2026; who’s the best right now? Here’s my own list.

1. Beau Pribula, Missouri. He left Penn State in search of a starring role, and his first two performances have been outstanding. Pribula is fifth nationally in completion rate (79.1%) and 25th in yards per dropback, and he has more non-sack rushing yards than LaNorris Sellers. And in his first Border Showdown against Kansas on Saturday, he threw for 334 yards and led a 15-point comeback.

2. John Mateer, Oklahoma. The world got the full John Mateer experience in OU’s 24-13 win over Michigan. He’s going to sling the ball around at all sorts of arm angles. He’s going to risk interceptions in the name of big plays. He’s going to slam into defenders even if it means wear-and-tear later in the year. And he’s going to make plays: He threw for 278 yards and a touchdown and scored on two short-yardage rushes.

3. Taylen Green, Arkansas. You could make the case that Green should rank even higher — he’s third nationally in Total QBR, after all, although he did face a pair of weak opponents thus far. He’s thrown a nation’s-best 10 touchdown passes in two games, and he’s rushed for 204 non-sack yards as well.

4. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt. Pavia has basically become the model SEC quarterback. The three guys above him here are all similarly physical with their legs and accurate with their arms, and considering what Pavia did Saturday at Virginia Tech, leading five consecutive touchdown drives to turn an early deficit into a 24-point road win, he has a case to rank three spots higher.

5. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee. The App State/UCLA transfer has now topped 7,000 career passing yards, and he’s been on cruise control early into his Vols tenure: 66% completion rate, 13.7 yards per completion, no picks and two easy wins.

6. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU. He was solid against a good Clemson defense and wholly mediocre, with an interception and three sacks, in a 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech on Saturday. He gets the benefit of the doubt because he has a stronger track record than most on this list, but it’s time to pick it up.

7. Arch Manning, Texas. Hey, he’s higher than he would have been a week ago, and he has two more nonconference tune-ups before SEC play begins.

8. Gunner Stockton, Georgia. Georgia has sleepwalked through the early season, and we’ve learned little about Stockton to date. That will change with Saturday’s trip to Tennessee.

9. Ty Simpson, Alabama. He was overwhelmed against Florida State and virtually perfect against Louisiana-Monroe (17-for-17 for 226 yards). We’ll learn what we need to in his next two games (Wisconsin, at Georgia).

10. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M. When Reed is making big plays through the air (as he did against UTSA), the A&M offense looks otherworldly. When it isn’t, Reed can still lean on his legs and a quick, efficient passing game.

11. Austin Simmons, Ole Miss. In his first big start, Simmons malfunctioned early against Kentucky (two first-quarter INTs) but was excellent from there. Very encouraging, but his résumé is still pretty light.

12. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina. Sellers was all-or-nothing as a redshirt freshman in 2024, with occasionally spectacular plays masking major inconsistency. He had a lovely touchdown run and long-bomb touchdown pass against Virginia Tech in Week 1, but he has otherwise been even less consistent two games into 2025. He desperately needs that to change over the next two weeks against Pavia’s Vandy and Pribula’s Mizzou.

13. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State. The veteran has had a hit-and-miss career and ranks just 71st in Total QBR after two games, but he also threw the most memorable Mississippi State touchdown pass in years Saturday night in the Bulldogs’ last-minute upset of Arizona State. We’ll see if the Bulldogs can build on that.

14. Jackson Arnold, Auburn. He’s been excellent with his legs and made solid plays to beat Baylor. He’s also averaging just 2.7 yards per dropback on third and fourth down.

15. DJ Lagway, Florida. The sophomore battled various injuries all offseason, and he has been terribly rusty early this season. He’s 73rd in Total QBR, he’s averaging just 9.0 yards per completion, and his Gators couldn’t score in the red zone and dropped a painful defeat to USF on Saturday.

16. Zach Calzada, Kentucky. In parts of two seasons at Texas A&M, Calzada produced a 56.7 Total QBR. After a star turn at FCS’ Incarnate Word, he returned to the SEC to try again … and he thus far has a 29.3 Total QBR.

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True or false: Clemson is going to be a bust this year?

TRUE (EVEN IF DEFINITIONS VARY).

Granted, “bust” is in the eye of the beholder. When you’re a top-five team in the preseason polls, playing at merely a top-15 level could be considered bust-like. But we’ll have to wait until Clemson plays at a top-15 level to worry about that.

Dabo Swinney’s Tigers weren’t anywhere close to that against Troy on Saturday, falling behind 16-0 in the first half before rallying to win 27-16. Bryant Wesco Jr. had a pair of lovely touchdown catches to drive the comeback, and the defense improved dramatically in the second half, but they still outgained the Trojans by just a 316-301 margin and needed to force three turnovers to feel comfortable. SP+ was far more skeptical of the Tigers than the sportsbooks were, projecting them as only 19-point favorites instead of the 29-point line. But it still overestimated them by more than a touchdown.

Even in recent years, when Clemson slipped to a mere top-20 program, the Tigers could still count on offensive efficiency even if (or when) they lacked explosiveness. But while the national average for success rate* thus far in 2025 is 44.4%, they were at 41.8% against Troy (83rd in defensive SP+), and they’re at 38.1% for the season, 106th in the country. Cade Klubnik, who began the season tied for second in the betting odds for the Heisman, is 104th in Total QBR, just behind FIU’s Keyone Jenkins.

(* Success rate = how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth. It is an on-base percentage for football and a strong driver of predictive quality.)

Yes, half of the Tigers’ output has come against a great-looking LSU defense, but Saturday was when the rebound was supposed to begin. Instead, Clemson finished the game with more questions than it began with and slipped to a jarring 30th in SP+. (LSU’s sleepwalking performance against Louisiana Tech didn’t help them in terms of early opponent adjustments, either.)

Considering they haven’t finished a season as low as 30th in SP+ since 2011, I’m going to guess the Tigers will find their sea legs at some point. They have too much talent not to. But even in a woeful ACC — which has already seen eight teams drop by least 12 spots in SP+ (and four by at least 20) — the Tigers have fallen behind both Louisville and Miami in the SP+ pecking order, and they’re barely ahead of Florida State, Georgia Tech and Pitt.

As the resident Clemson skeptic this offseason, I really struggled to see the sort of national-title upside others did in this experienced team. But I still assumed they were good enough to set the bar in their conference. But never mind the standard they established while going 79-7 with two national titles from 2015 to 2020. Right now, they have to improve just to get back to the standard they’ve set in the years since.

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True or false: Oregon is the best team in the country?

TRUE (FOR OKLAHOMA STATE’S SAKE, IT BETTER BE).

In this neighborhood, we understand that time of possession is not in any way a predictive stat. It says plenty about the personality and flow of a given game — that Army more than doubled Kansas State’s time of possession in Saturday evening’s upset win, for instance, says it was very much an Army-style win — but it doesn’t tell us nearly as much about quality as we tend to think.

But still … Oregon crafting a +420 yardage advantage over Oklahoma State (631-211) while losing the time-of-possession battle Saturday, in a 69-3 demolition, is some wicked stuff that tops anything they pulled off even during the Chip Kelly era. When the Ducks walloped UCLA 60-13 with 21:29 in time of possession in 2010, they had only a +292 yardage advantage. (That’s also absurd, for the record.) When they beat up Washington (44-10) and Washington State (63-14) with 24:17 and 27:36 TOP, respectively, in 2008, their combined yardage margin in those games was +490, only a little higher than what they managed Saturday.

Their second play of the game was a 59-yard touchdown, and their third was a 65-yard touchdown. They had more gains of 40-plus yards (five) than OSU had gains of double-digit yardage (four). They made an example of the Cowboys in about 37 different ways, and poor OSU quarterback Zane Flores (7-for-19 for 67 yards and two pick-sixes) had just about the worst Saturday afternoon of his life.

Oregon was projected seventh in SP+ to start the season, and I was a little concerned about the level of unknowns — they had so many new starters, especially on offense, and they needed a number of key transfers to hit if they were to meet their potential. Let’s just say I am presently unconcerned about anything the Ducks have to offer. They are doing whatever they want to opponents, and they have surged to No. 1 in SP+, even past an Ohio State team that beat Texas and went full hot-knife-through-butter against Grambling State.

Those new pieces who needed to click for Oregon? They’re clicking. Quarterback Dante Moore was 16-for-21 for 266 yards and three touchdowns against the Pokes. Receiver Malik Benson is averaging 14.1 yards per catch and a touchdown per game. How is the offensive line with three transfer starters performing? Well, Oregon has gained zero or fewer yards on just 17.5% of its snaps (third lowest in FBS) while gaining 20-plus on 12.7% (third highest). I’m guessing the line’s doing well. Running back Makhi Hughes hasn’t gotten rolling yet, but the blowouts mean that lots of players are getting touches — seven different backs have between five and 14 carries.

Oregon has started about as well as a team can. That’s probably bad news for Northwestern and Oregon State, its next two opponents. That Week 5 matchup at Penn State can’t come quickly enough.

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True or false: Texas Tech is the best team in the Big 12?

FALSE (IF ONLY BECAUSE OF FIERCE COMPETITION).

It’s hard to top outscoring your first two opponents by a combined 129-21. Yards: Tech 1,209, opponents 404. Even though their two opponents, Kent State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, ranked 167th and 346th, respectively, in last week’s full SP+ rankings, that’s some high-quality shop-wrecking right there.

On Saturday against an overwhelmed Kent State, Behren Morton went a tidy 18-for-26 for 258 yards and three scores, Adam Hill rushed for 127 yards, and before the game fell into my garbage time filter, the Red Raiders outgained the Golden Flashes by a 235-26 margin. They are very much treating bad teams as if a great team would, and it’s hard to ask for more than that. They’re up to 11th in SP+ for a lot of the same reasons Oregon has jumped to first.

A lot of Big 12 teams have looked just about as good, however, in the early going. The conference certainly has at least one deadweight team in Oklahoma State (and maybe another one in West Virginia), but other lower-tier Big 12 teams have looked good at least once, and the teams at the top have been brilliant.

• Utah outscored UCLA and Cal Poly by a combined 106-19 and outgained them 1,010-443.

• BYU outscored Portland State and Stanford by a combined 96-3 and outgained them 938-212.

• Arizona outscored Hawai’i and Weber State by a combined 88-9 and outgained them 900-474.

• TCU humiliated Bill Belichick’s North Carolina on the opening Monday night of the season.

• Iowa State has actually played solid opponents and has sandwiched a jet-lag-defying 55-7 romp over South Dakota with gutty, 3-point wins over Kansas State and Iowa.

• Even with a rivalry road loss to Missouri (No. 13 in SP+) on Saturday, Kansas still has a pair of resounding wins — a combined 77-14 over Fresno State and Wagner with a 1,014-359 yardage advantage — on the résumé as well.

We’ll see if wobbly Kansas State, Baylor and Arizona State teams can find their legs and live up to their potential. But even without them, the Big 12 has a lot of teams that look as if they could win the conference and/or command some attention for a possible CFP at-large bid. Texas Tech might be the best of the bunch, but the competition is too close to call.

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True or false: USF is the best team in the Group of 5?

TRUE (NO MATTER WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY).

Who has a better résumé through two weeks than Alex Golesh’s South Florida Bulls? They’ve already taken down two teams that were ranked in the preseason AP poll — Boise State by a large margin in Week 1, then Florida via walk-off field goal in Week 2 — and they were unanimous selections in our Saturday night playoff picks. They were projected to finish a brutal three-game start (they play at Miami next) with an average of about 0.5 wins, per SP+. They already have two. Surely they can’t make it a third at Hard Rock Stadium next week, right?

SP+ is still trying to figure the Bulls out and has conservatively advanced them to only 63rd overall, sixth among G5 teams and just behind a tumbling Boise State.

Top 10 Group of 5 teams, per SP+:
39. Memphis (2-0)
46. Tulane (2-0)
54. Navy (2-0)
57. James Madison (1-1)
58. Boise State (1-1)
63. USF (2-0)
66. Toledo (1-1)
68. Army (1-1)
70. UConn (1-1)

When you overachieve against projections by a combined 59 points in your first two games, however, you’re playing with house money. Until proven otherwise, we’re just going to assume that quarterback Byrum Brown and big-play receivers Keshaun Singleton and Chas Nimrod (combined: 13 catches for 288 yards and two TDs) will keep hitting home runs when it matters. They’ll need to because the remaining schedule features not only Miami but also road games against two of the teams ranked above them in SP+ (Memphis and Navy). The journey is only beginning, but USF is one of the stories of the early season.

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This week in SP+

The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)

Moving up

Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:

The Big Ten enjoyed a nice overall ratings boost thanks to cupcake destruction from Northwestern, Minnesota and Indiana (combined score: 164-16). But looking at the rankings, the most noteworthy jump obviously came from Alabama. SP+ rewards virtually perfect performances, and the Tide outgaining ULM by a 583-148 margin (334-32 before my garbage time filter kicked in) certainly qualifies as that. SP+ can just never quit Bama, can it?

Moving down

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:

Oof, Oklahoma State. But we’ve already covered the Cowboys.

Meanwhile, Miami’s stumble was a product of a strange early-season issue we’re seeing. The Hurricanes scored TDs on their first five drives in a 45-3 win over Bethune-Cookman, but because they played a bottom-tier FCS team and weren’t perfect in every way — not a ton of big plays before garbage time, a couple of decent first-half drives allowed — their performance graded out poorly compared to absolute destructions such as BYU’s 69-0 win over Portland State and others. Therefore their rating fell. I’m not at all worried about the Canes, but the bar is absurdly high when you’re playing the lowest-rated FCS opponents.

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Who won the Heisman this week?

I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, nine for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?

Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:

1. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (34-for-50 passing for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 28 non-sack rushing yards against SMU)

2. Vicari Swain, South Carolina (2 punt return touchdowns and a forced fumble against SC State)

3. Ty Simpson, Alabama (17-for-17 passing for 226 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing score against ULM)

4. Jayden Maiava, USC (16-for-24 passing for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns against Georgia Southern)

5. Cam Cook, Jacksonville State (29 carries for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns against Liberty)

6. DeJuan Echoles Jr., Ball State (3 tackles, 3 TFLs, 2 sacks and 3 forced fumbles against Auburn)

7. Aidan Chiles, Michigan State (19-for-29 passing for 231 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 67 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Boston College)

8. Dylan Lonergan, Boston College (34-for-45 passing for 390 yards and 4 touchdowns against Michigan State)

9. Noah Fifita, Arizona (17-for-22 passing for 373 yards and 5 touchdowns against Weber State)

10. Hank Beatty, Illinois (8 catches for 128 yards, plus a 25-yard rushing touchdown against Duke)

Vicari Swain had the most unique stat line of the season thus far, and his two punt return touchdowns in two minutes, including one off a partial block, served a pretty important purpose for a South Carolina team whose offense never shifted out of second gear against SC State. But leading two late touchdown drives to force overtime and throwing for 440 yards in a vital win, as Sawyer Robertson did, will usually get you the top spot on this list.

Honorable mention:

• Xavier Atkins, Auburn (5 tackles, 4 TFLs and 2 sacks against Ball State)

• Carson Beck, Miami (22-for-24 passing for 267 yards and 2 touchdowns against Bethune-Cookman)

• Taylen Green, Arkansas (17-for-26 passing for 239 yards, 4 TDs and 2 INTs, plus 151 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Arkansas State)

• Robert Henry Jr., UTSA (17 carries for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 21 receiving yards and a touchdown against Texas State)

• Cashius Howell, Texas A&M (4 tackles, 3 TFLs and 3 sacks against Utah State)

• Beau Pribula, Missouri (30-for-39 passing for 334 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 19 non-sack rushing yards against Kansas)

• Jamal Roberts, Missouri (13 carries for 143 yards and a touchdown, plus two receptions against Kansas)

• Hollywood Smothers, NC State (17 carries for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 13 receiving yards against Virginia)

• J’Mari Taylor, Virginia (17 carries for 150 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 13 receiving yards against NC State)

Through two weeks, here are your points leaders. We’ve had 20 different players fill the two top-10s thus far, so we’ve got five ties in the top 10.

1T. Jonah Coleman, Washington (10 points)

1T. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10 points)

3T. Rocco Becht, Iowa State (nine points)

3T. Vicari Swain, South Carolina (nine points)

5T. Parker Navarro, Ohio (eight points)

5T. Ty Simpson, Alabama (eight points)

7T. Taylen Green, Arkansas (seven points)

7T. Jayden Maiava, USC (seven points)

9T. Cam Cook, Jacksonville State (six points)

9T. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (six points)

Safe to say, the Heisman race hasn’t really begun yet.

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My 10 — make it 20! — favorite games of the weekend

As I warned above, there was simply no way I was sticking to 10 games this week. Even at 20, I couldn’t squeeze in all the games I wanted to. And I couldn’t even decide on a No. 1!

1T. Mississippi State 24, No. 12 Arizona State 20. The game that produced the first “HOLY S—” of the season in my Teams chat with my editor pretty much has to be No. 1.

1T. Baylor 48, No. 17 SMU 45 (2OT). This absurd track meet also has to be No. 1. SMU led by 14 with six minutes left but couldn’t close the door on Robertson and the Bears. SMU kicker Collin Rogers (two missed field goals, including one in OT) probably didn’t get much sleep last night.

3. USF 18, No. 13 Florida 16. Florida moved the ball beautifully in the first half but settled for field goals each time, gave up a 66-yard TD in the third quarter and, after taking the lead back in the fourth quarter, let the Bulls drive 87 yards (with help from the silliest penalty of the week https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46179368/usf-stuns-florida-second-straight-win-vs-ranked-team) for the walk-off field goal.

4. Michigan State 42, Boston College 40 (2OT). Boston College was efficient, and Michigan State was explosive, and after 60 delightfully even minutes, the game was decided by who could make their 2-point conversion in the second OT.

5. Division II: Fort Hays State 36, No. 5 CSU-Pueblo 35. The smaller schools always provide. Fort Hays State knocked off a top-five D-II team for the first time, overcoming an early 15-point deficit, taking the lead with 1:47 remaining and then, 80 seconds later, blocking CSU-Pueblo’s game-tying PAT attempt!

6. NC State 35, Virginia 31. UVA had a massive opportunity here, outgaining NC State, 514-420, and driving the length of the field to get in position to win in the final minute. But Cian Stone stepped in front of a poor Chandler Morris pass in the end zone with 1:02 left, and the Pack prevailed.

7. Texas State 43, UTSA 36. This was every bit the track meet I had hoped for. UTSA’s Robert Henry Jr. nearly made the Heisman top 10 for the second straight week, but after five second-half lead changes and a 65-yard Brad Jackson-to-Beau Sparks TD, TXST made three late stops to seal the road win.

8. Missouri 42, Kansas 31. Mizzou played “Mr. Brightside” and overcame an early 21-6 deficit thanks to relentless ball control, but Kansas still led with five minutes remaining. It wasn’t until Jamal Roberts‘ 63-yard burst with 1:49 left that the home fans could feel comfortable.

9. Division III: University of New England 56, Coast Guard 49. Nor’easters win a track meet! The opening weekend of the D-III season gave us this marvel, a game with 1,365 total yards, two fourth-quarter lead changes and a game-winning, 21-yard pass from Chris Lang to Berto Zepeda.

10. Syracuse 27, UConn 20 (OT). Not sure about the whole “make ’em run after the game” thing, but Syracuse took its first lead with 48 seconds left, and after Chris Freeman‘s 41-yard field goal forced overtime, the Orange won with a Justus Ross-Simmons touchdown and a goal-line stop.

11. FCS: Presbyterian 39, Furman 38 (OT). Presbyterian has finished with two winning records in 17 FCS seasons, but a week after a 15-10 upset of No. 11 Mercer, the Blue Hose moved to 2-0 with another big upset. They forced overtime with a 17-0 second-half run, then sealed the win with a 2-point conversion in the first OT.

12. FCS: Delaware State 37, Albany 32. DeSean Jackson’s Hornets have overachieved against projections twice in two games, and they scored the first win of the Jackson era with a 27-yard Kaiden Bennett touchdown run with 34 seconds left.

13. Nevada 20, Sacramento State 17. My favorite win probability chart of the week.

That’s what it looks like when you win because of (A) a pick-six with 2:17 remaining, (B) two disallowed touchdowns in the final minute and (C) a missed field goal at the buzzer.

14. FCS: No. 2 South Dakota State 30, No. 3 Montana State 24 (2OT). It was more a battle of attrition than a fireworks show, but despite losing a late lead because of a fumble return TD, SDSU outlasted MSU in overtime in this FCS heavyweight fight.

15. Army 24, Kansas State 21. You can’t win when you don’t have the ball. Army scored on a 7:22 field goal drive, recovered a surprise onside kick, scored on a 7:54 touchdown drive and picked off an Avery Johnson pass to steal an upset and send K-State reeling.

16. No. 16 Iowa State 16, Iowa 13. A Cy-Hawk game decided by field goals and a late defensive stop?? I don’t believe it!

17. Division II: East Central (Okla.) 24, No. 15 Ouachita Baptist 22. SP+ favored OBU by 18 points in this game, and the Tigers led by nine at halftime, but ECU charged back thanks to 174 rushing yards from Cade Searcy and a 24-yard Gabriel Ogura field goal at the buzzer.

18. Tulane 33, South Alabama 31. This game had letdown potential, with Tulane pummeling Northwestern in Week 1 and prepping for a big game against Ole Miss ahead. The Green Wave led by 16 with 10 minutes left, but USA struck back with two touchdowns. Unfortunately, they converted only one of two 2-point conversion tries.

19. FCS: UT Rio Grande Valley 27, Prairie View A&M 21. In their debut season, the UTRGV Vaqueros are now 2-0! They watched a 17-0 first-quarter lead turn into a late 21-20 deficit at PVAMU, but Nathan Denney scored with 2:21 left, and Elijah Graham grabbed a game-clinching fumble recovery.

20. Fresno State 36, Oregon State 27. Oregon State missed four 2-point conversions, so a 34-yard touchdown pass with 1:19 left gave the Beavers only a 27-26 lead instead of, say, 31-26. Dylan Lynch‘s 43-yard field goal with 29 seconds left therefore gave Fresno State the lead, and Jakari Embry clinched the game with a pick-six.