The dictat from Labour high command is that nothing can be taken for granted – certainly not the 99% likelihood which Sir John Curtice places on Labour forming the next government, after the general election.
The latest major survey, by YouGov, gives Sir Keir Starmer a landslide victory of a scale just short of Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997 when Labour won a 179-seat majority.
It gives Labour 403 MPs, the Conservatives 155, Liberal Democrats 49 and the SNP 23 – amounting to a 154 Labour overall majority.
Another recent large survey, by Survation using the same MRP technique of big samples analysed by region, is more apocalyptic for the Conservatives. It pushes the Tories down to around only 100 MPs and would give Sir Keir a record-breaking 256 majority.
Image: Keir Starmer faces the possibility of winning a majority akin to that seen by Tony Blair. Pic: PA
Labour’s current representation in the Commons would double while the Conservatives would be more than halved.
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The Reform Party would have no MPs.
In both these MRP polls and in the numerous national opinion polls over the last couple of years, prominent Conservative MPs and ministers are on course to lose their seats.
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Those at risk include Iain Duncan Smith, Jacob Rees Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps and James Cleverly.
Image: Rishi Sunak is seemingly facing defeat at the next election according to recent polls. Pic: PA
Public opinion seems remarkably settled. Many Conservative MPs feel nobody is listening to them anymore.
Who would be in a landslide Labour government?
Just suppose the polls are right for once and the gap between the parties does not narrow in the run-up to voting, the nation, if not the ever-cautious Labour leadership, needs to start thinking what a landslide Labour government would look like.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm there was for the charismatic Tony Blair in 1997 – Keir Starmer has negative personal ratings, only much better than Rishi Sunak.
Voters are more disillusioned by politicians of any kind than they were then but a landslide would be a landslide and there are some comparisons to be drawn.
Image: The polls paint a rosy picture for Labour. Pic: PA
When a team wins comfortably it is difficult to change the line-up. It must be assumed that Prime Minister Starmer will flank himself with the same shadow cabinet in the same jobs.
In the great offices of state, neither David Lammy at the Foreign Office nor Chancellor Rachel Reeves would arrive with anything like the authority and reputation enjoyed by Robin Cook and Gordon Brown.
They would also be coming in at more difficult times economically and internationally.
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At the Home Office, the veteran Yvette Cooper is a match for Jack Straw. She will need to deal credibly with immigration, currently the most inflamed topic of public concern.
Fresh creative thinking is more likely to come from less senior ministers such as Wes Streeting at health and deputy leader Angela Rayner.
Image: Angela Rayner
Starmer plans to keep control by building up an executive government consisting of himself, Reeves, Rayner and Pat McFadden. Reeves and McFadden are primarily enforcers of economic discipline. Tensions may soon emerge even in this top group as Starmer and Reeves come under internal pressure to deliver tangible improvements in public services.
Labour will lack excuses if the polls are accurate
An overwhelming majority would deprive Labour of excuses not to deliver on what it has promised.
In its first 100 days, the new Labour government will have to enact what little it has trailed including VAT on private schools and a new deal for workers and trade unions.
It would be able get anything through parliament. This, along with trying not to put up unnecessary targets for the Conservatives, may explain the lack of specificity about the five missions which Starmer has set himself.
It may be that something similar to Blair’s pledge card, which set up modest achievable goals in the main areas of public concern, emerges during the campaign.
At present there are little more than warm words from Labour on improving growth, the NHS, green energy, education and childcare. Similarly Reeves is promising reorganisation and new quangos which only relate remotely to the high growth economy Labour says it needs.
In a landslide, more than half of Labour’s MPs will be first-timers at Westminster. There has been an effort to select “Starmtroopers” in winnable seats, but the leadership will not know them all.
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The new Labour parliamentary party will be younger. Millennial concerns such as housing and the cost of universities will be higher up the agenda.
The backfiring of Brexit on the Conservatives and gender self-ID on the Scottish government is likely to discourage bids to force the pace on divisive issues.
Neither his MPs nor the party conference gave Blair much trouble during his first term. Starmer would likely benefit as well from a mix of inexperience and gratitude.
With the new prime minister simultaneously committed to executive government and “powering up” the regions, challenge from within Labour is likely to come from the mayors in Manchester, Liverpool and London, assuming they are re-elected in their own right this year.
Her Majesty’s Opposition cannot be expected to put up much actual opposition if crushed in a landslide.
The Conservatives would be impotent in parliament and, if 1997-2005 is anything to go by, more interested in their own internal battles over party leadership.
The Liberal Democrats would relish their restoration as the UK’s official third force at the expense of the SNP. Little beyond virtue signalling can be expected from either of those parties.
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For much of Blair’s time in office, constructive scrutiny of the government was led by the mainstream media, courted and cajoled by Peter Mandelson and Alastair Campbell.
There will be no repeat of this. The print and broadcast landscape has fragmented with many outlets more committed to campaigning than reporting fairly.
Like Barack Obama and Joe Biden in the US, Starmer should expect to come under vicious assault from day one. There will be no honeymoon.
After what will have been a “time for a change” election, the electorate may be inclined to give the new government the benefit of the doubt for a long period – but how long?
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The Labour leader says there wasn’t much ’emotional space’ for him growing up.
Starmer has repeatedly signalled that his government will need two terms to deliver real change. A landslide victory would provide the best basis on which to build.
In hindsight, Tony Blair has repeatedly bemoaned that his government got off to a slow start and failed to deliver as much as it could have done in its first term.
Far from planning for a landslide, his campaign team before his first victory were preoccupied with preparations for coalition with Paddy Ashdown’s Liberal Democrats.
Caution is one thing, making the best of your opportunities is another. The many voters telling the pollsters that they want a Labour victory must hope that someone, somewhere in Starmer’s rigid hierarchy is thinking hard about what they would do with a big win.
The environment secretary has defended the government’s net zero agenda after Sir Tony Blair said phasing out fossil fuels was “doomed to fail”.
The former prime minister said the approach to transitioning to a green economy wasn’t “working” and was “inadequate” in a report published yesterday by the Tony Blair Institute.
But speaking to Sky News’ Wilfred Frost on Breakfast, Steve Reed said the government was “moving away from sticking plaster solutions towards doing what’s right for the future of the economy, and for the future of households”.
He said transitioning to a green economy was necessary for the UK to take back “control of our own energy supply” especially in light of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
In his foreword to the report, Sir Tony called the whole strategy of transitioning to a green economy “unrealistic”.
“Present policy solutions are inadequate and, worse, are distorting the debate into a quest for a climate platform that is unrealistic and therefore unworkable,” he wrote.
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“Too often, political leaders fear saying what many know to be true: the current approach isn’t working.”
Asked whether he believed Sir Tony was right to say the focus shouldn’t be on using less fossil fuels but on using methods such as carbon capture, Mr Reed conceded that “we’ll still be using fossil fuels… for some time to come”.
He added: “For many decades to come. The transition is so, so transition isn’t gonna happen overnight.”
Shadow environment secretary Victoria Atkins told Sky News that Sir Tony’s message should prompt a “rethink” in government.
“If even Tony Blair doesn’t agree with the Labour government, then that is quite a clear message. I would imagine to them that they have got to rethink this.”
PayPal says the US Securities and Exchange Commission has abandoned its investigation into the payment giant’s US-dollar stablecoin.
PayPal said in an April 29 regulatory filing that the SEC concluded its investigation into PayPal USD (PYUSD) and wouldn’t be taking any action.
The company said it received a subpoena from the SEC’s Division of Enforcement over its stablecoin in November 2023.
“The subpoena requests the production of documents. We are cooperating with the SEC in connection with this request,” PayPal stated at the time.
In its latest filing, the firm said the SEC notified it in February that the agency “was closing this inquiry without enforcement action.”
PayPal has said its stablecoin is 100% redeemable for US dollars and “fully backed” by dollar deposits, including short-term treasuries and cash equivalents.
However, the stablecoin has struggled to gain momentum in a crowded market dominated by rivals Tether and Circle. PYUSD has a market capitalization of just $880 million, less than 1% of Tether’s (USDT) $148.5 billion.
PayPal’s stablecoin has seen better growth this year with a 75% increase in PYUSD circulating supply since the beginning of 2025, according to CoinGecko. It remains down 14% from its peak supply of just over $1 billion in August 2024.
That growth could be bolstered by a company announcement on April 23 introducing rewards for PYUSD in a new loyalty offering that will enable US users to earn 3.7% annually for holding the asset on the platform.
Meanwhile, on April 24, PayPal announced a partnership with Coinbase to increase the adoption of PYUSD.
“We are excited to drive new, exciting, and innovative use cases together with Coinbase and the entire cryptocurrency community, putting PYUSD at the center,” said Alex Chriss, PayPal President and CEO.
The payments giant also reported robust first-quarter earnings and the completion of significant share repurchase activities.
The firm beat Wall Street estimates, earning $1.33 per share in the first quarter, topping analyst expectations of $1.16. Revenue rose 1% from a year before to $7.8 billion.
Asset manager BlackRock has filed to create digital ledger technology shares from one of the firm’s money market funds, which will leverage blockchain technology to maintain a mirror record of share ownership for investors.
The DLT shares will track BlackRock’s BLF Treasury Trust Fund (TTTXX), which may only be purchased from BlackRock Advisors and The Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), the firm said in its April 29 Form N-1A filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The money market fund holds over $150 million worth of assets, invested almost entirely in US Treasury bills and cash.
BlackRock said that the shares “are expected to be purchased and held through BNY, which intends to use blockchain technology to maintain a mirror record of share ownership for its customers.”
Unlike the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), DLT shares won’t be tokenized but will instead be used as a transparency tool to verify ownership.
BlackRock will continue to maintain traditional book-entry records as the official ownership ledger.
BlackRock didn’t propose a ticker or set a management fee for the DLT shares in its filing.
A minimum initial investment of $3 million worth of DLT is required for institutions seeking to purchase the digital shares.
BlackRock follows Fidelity’s March 21 filing to list an Ethereum-based OnChain share class, which seeks to track the Fidelity Treasury Digital Fund (FYHXX) — an $80 million fund consisting almost entirely of US Treasury bills.
While the OnChain share class filing is pending regulatory approval, Fidelity expects it to take effect on May 30.
Wall Street heavyweights continue to explore blockchain use cases
The treasury tokenization market is currently valued at $6.16 billion, led by BlackRock’s BUIDL at $2.55 billion, while the Franklin Templeton-issued Franklin OnChain US Government Money Fund (BENJI) secures over $700 million worth of real-world assets, according to rwa.xyz.
Market caps of blockchain-based Treasury products. Source: rwa.xyz
Ethereum remains the chain of choice for tokenizing treasury assets, and currently houses over $4.55 billion worth, while the Stellar network and Solana round out the top three at $474.9 million and $274.5 million, respectively.
The potential of RWA tokenization has also been championed by BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink, who believes the technology could revolutionize investing.