MLB Watchability Index: Which teams are the most fun to watch this season?
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior WriterApr 3, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Welcome to the 2024 MLB Watchability Index! As ESPN NBA writer Zach Lowe would say — and we’re stealing this idea from his annual League Pass rankings — these are NOT power rankings, but watchability ratings. Imagine you’re sitting at home on a Saturday evening and you want to watch a baseball game, but perhaps your favorite team has already played. Which teams do you most want to watch? This is that list.
We’ve created a super complex formula to score teams in seven different categories, creating a possible maximum score of 50. These categories fit into the general idea of: “What makes baseball exciting?”
First, the 10-point categories (on a scale of 1-10 points maximum):
Star power: This is based off our annual MLB Rank of the top 100 players of the season, with points rewarded on how many players a team had in the top 100 and how high they ranked.
Youth: We love young players — especially promising, young players. I looked at each team’s projected FanGraphs WAR from players in their first or second seasons in the majors.
Baserunning: The new rules helped bring speed back into the game last season with more stolen bases, creating a more exciting — and watchable — version of baseball. I used FanGraphs’ team baserunning metric (which factors in stolen bases and running the bases) from last season, making some adjustments for major roster changes or additions.
And then there are the 5-point categories (on a scale of 1-5 points maximum):
4- and 5-star catches: The Baseball Savant site lists catch probability for outfielders, including the number of 4-star plays (catch probability of 26-50%) and 5-star plays (probability of 0-25%). Even 4-star catches are pretty rare. Ronald Acuna Jr., for example, had no 4-star catches last season. I looked at last year’s totals and again made estimated adjustments as necessary.
425-plus-foot home runs: Long home runs are extra fun, so I looked at last year’s totals as a baseline. The league leader was somebody who signed a very large contract in the offseason.
Minutiae: Ballpark, uniforms, mascots, unintentional comedy, etc. It’s more pleasing to watch a game from Wrigley than, say, Tropicana Field.
Bonus section: Anything else I want to add for a team at my whim, up to a maximum of five points.
Let’s dive right into it, starting with the lowest-scoring teams — i.e. the least watchable — and finishing with the highest-scoring teams that you should drop everything to sit down and watch. (The point total is next to each team’s name.)
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Star power: 1 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 4.5 | Catches: 1 | 425+: 1 | Minutiae: 2
Bonus: 1, for the hope of seeing James Wood and Dylan Crews later in the season
This is a team trying to play Jesse Winker in left field and 32-year-old Eddie Rosario in center field — and you can guess how that’s going to work out. The youth score is surprisingly low and maybe a little unfair, but FanGraphs isn’t projecting much playing time or value for Wood or Crews, and guys such as Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore have been up long enough that they’re now in the unofficial post-youth phase of their careers. The Presidents Race is fun, though. Go Teddy!
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Star power: 2 | Youth: 1 | Baserunning: 2 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 2 | Minutiae: 1
Bonus: 1, for the new “campfire milkshake” concession item
I’m pretty sure Luis Robert Jr. accounts for most of these points, from 4-star catches to speed on the bases to long home runs. The White Sox have done a nice job improving what was a weak farm system just a couple of years ago, but only Colson Montgomery is likely to make much of a contribution this season, so this rebuild is filled with older players. Unfortunately, “veteran leadership” does not score well in watchability.
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Star power: 3 | Youth: 2.5 | Baserunning: 1 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutiae: 2
Bonus: 0.5, for all the times announcers will call Luis Arraez a “professional hitter”
The Marlins were crushed with pitching injuries in spring training, including Eury Perez, who accounted for a chunk of the above points with both star power (No. 67 in MLB Rank) and youth. That won’t help their viewing attractiveness, and neither do indoor games with empty seats. The Marlins are also not a young team — and not a fast one, either, with the likes of Josh Bell, Jake Burger and Arraez clogging up the bases. There could also be some unintentional comedy with the infield defense. However, I do like their City Connect jerseys.
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Star power: 1 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 1 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 4 | Minutiae: 2
Bonus: 2. +1 for Brenton Doyle‘s arm, +1 for the occasional Coors Field football score
I ran this list by a former Rockies fan who has been disillusioned by the team’s failures in recent years and his comment: “Too high.” Perhaps he is looking at Doyle’s batting average and not his defense! I mean, that’s understandable as Doyle’s 52 OPS+ was the seventh lowest since 1920 for an outfielder with at least 400 plate appearances. He won a Gold Glove as a rookie last season and simultaneously possesses perhaps the best range of any center fielder and the best throwing arm. I mean, we should probably subtract a point for his offense and maybe another point for the Rockies playing Charlie Blackmon in right field, but the point is Doyle is a human highlight film in center field.
Note as well: How were the Rockies the worst baserunning team in the majors a year ago? Playing in the large expanse of Coors Field should make it easy to go from first to third on base hits at will. But not for this team.
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Star power: 1 | Youth: 6 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutiae: 1
Bonus: 2. +1 for fans protesting terrible ownership, +1 for those sweet Kelly green jerseys
OK, the A’s rank high in the youth category because they have a lot of it — somebody has to play and it sure isn’t going to be veterans making more than the league minimum (the A’s joined the Rockies and Nationals as the only teams with no players in our top 100). They had potential in the baserunning category, but they just sent speedster Esteury Ruiz down to the minors. Because, you know, why give the fans somebody exciting to watch?
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Star power: 2 | Youth: 5 | Baserunning: 2.5 | Catches: 1 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutiae: 2
Bonus: 3. +1 for Mike Trout being Mike Trout, +1 for the inevitable showdown between manager Ron Washington and Anthony Rendon, +1 for Reid Detmers‘ curveball
Look, the Angels weren’t all that interesting even when they had Shohei Ohtani, so they sure aren’t going to be more interesting without him. I’ve always enjoyed watching games from Anaheim (and they do always draw well) and, hey, Trout just hit a 473-foot home run on Monday. This might be underrating the potential for the Angels’ season to go completely haywire, however — in a good or bad way, I have no idea. After all, Washington called a team meeting after two games as the team began the season with 11-3 and 13-4 losses. (And it worked: The Angels won their next two games.)
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Star power: 2 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 4 | Minutiae: 3
Bonus: 2. +1 for Jhoan Duran‘s fastball velocity, +1 for Edouard Julien being French Canadian (he spoke no English when he started in college at Auburn)
This is our first reminder that this index is different — and should be different — from our weekly Power Rankings: The Twins, after all, are favored to repeat as American League Central champions. They scored low in all three of the 10-point categories, however, as their only two players in the top 100 were Pablo Lopez at No. 55 and Carlos Correa at No. 78. Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton certainly have top-100 potential, but the injury risk bothered our voters and Lewis has unfortunately already landed on the injured list. They do have one of the best uniform sets in the majors, though.
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Star power: 4 | Youth: 1 | Baserunning: 1.5 | Catches: 5 | 425+: 1.5 | Minutiae: 3
Bonus: 3. +1 for Davis Schneider‘s mustache and goggles combo, +1 for play-by-play announcer Dan Shulman, +1 for Kevin Gausman‘s splitter
With Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho in the outfield, it’s no surprise that the Blue Jays rank best in the 4-star and 5-star catch category, but they had just three players in the top 100 (Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Gausman) and don’t appear to have much potential impact youth unless pitcher Ricky Tiedemann gets called up. They also fared poorly in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric and outside of Guerrero, they don’t hit many big blasts. Indeed, looking at this lineup and considering the offense was middle of the pack last season, the Jays might struggle to score runs.
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Star power: 3 | Youth: 4.5 | Baserunning: 4 | Catches: 1 | 425+: 1.5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 1.5. +1 for Logan Webb‘s sinker, +0.5 for the beer shower given to Jung Hoo Lee after his first home run
The Giants’ offseason additions make them a lot more intriguing than they were a season ago: reigning National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell, center fielder Lee, Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman and DH Jorge Soler. Snell and Chapman cracked the top 100 alongside Webb (runner-up to Snell) and the early returns on Lee have been positive — we’ll see if he can improve the team’s lackluster catch rating. Rookie Kyle Harrison has a chance to give the Giants one of the best pitching trios in the league. They also rate well in Minutiae: great ballpark, great announcers, classic uniforms.
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Star power: 3.5 | Youth: 3.5 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 3.5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 1.5. +1 for Masyn Winn‘s arm, +0.5 for players going wild when manager Oli Marmol got a two-year extension and the ensuing uproar every time a bullpen decision backfires
The Cardinals are sort of in no-man’s-land right now: They have a couple of declining superstars in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt (44th and 47th in our top 100) and some intriguing young players in Jordan Walker and Winn, but nobody clearly in their prime. If only they could combine Walker’s offensive potential with Winn’s defense. The Cardinals don’t fare very well in baserunning or fantastic catches — and Tommy Edman, the best in both categories, is currently out with a wrist issue. Victor Scott II is a speedster who made the Opening Day roster after stealing 94 bases in the minors, but he’s probably around only until Edman or Lars Nootbaar return.
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Star power: 2 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 5.5 | Catches: 4 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutiae: 3
Bonus: 2.5. +1 for knowing Bobby Witt Jr. will be a Royal for the long term, +1 for Cole Ragans‘ changeup and potential to be the best KC starter since Kevin Appier, +0.5 for Salvador Perez
The Royals have been awful since 2018 — three 100-loss seasons since then, including 106 in 2023. That means the rebuild hasn’t just been slow, it hasn’t made any progress. Believing they can contend in a weak AL Central, the Royals went out and signed some veteran starters. Still, it’s a big leap from 56 wins to 86. Anyway, Witt is worth the price of admission all by himself, Ragans might be a potential ace and Kyle Isbel apparently makes a lot of great plays in the outfield. Plus, the fountains at Kauffman Stadium are a pleasant backdrop for viewing any Royals game.
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Star power: 6 | Youth: 2.5 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2 | Minutiae: 3
Bonus: 3.5. +1 for George Kirby‘s control, +1 for Julio Rodriguez‘s energy, +1 for every reference to Cal Raleigh‘s nickname (“The Big Dumper”), +0.5 for the yellow metal trident used for home run celebrations (all fun and games until Julio pokes his eye out)
The Mariners have J-Rod and a strong starting rotation — Luis Castillo, Kirby and Logan Gilbert, ranked 39th, 40th and 62nd in our top 100 — so they get a solid star power figure. But outside of Rodriguez, they don’t do much on the bases or in the field (there’s a strong likelihood they’ll get no 4- or 5-star catches from their corner outfielders). T-Mobile Park also suppresses offense in general, so you’ll see a lot of low-scoring games when the Mariners are at home. Still, there’s nothing like seeing the cameras showing Mount Rainier on a sunny afternoon and the Mariners’ Sunday cream jerseys are among my favorites (the black pants on their City Connect uniforms are an abomination, however).
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Star power: 2 | Youth: 5.5 | Baserunning: 5 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 1.5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 3. +1 for when Tarik Skubal wins the Cy Young Award, +1 for stealing Jason Benetti from the White Sox, +1 for the pizza spear home run celebration (all fun and games until Spencer Torkelson pokes his eye out)
The Tigers are sneakily interesting, especially if Torkelson and Riley Greene can build upon their 2023 seasons. Colt Keith and Parker Meadows give them two high-profile rookies and if Meadows is as advertised in center field, that catch score could improve. Maybe we’ll even see top prospect Jackson Jobe join the rotation or bullpen later in the season. Here’s a question: Is Javier Baez a negative or positive viewing experience at this point in his career? He’s still astonishing at times on defense, but he’s probably the most frustrating batter to watch in the majors: low batting average, terrible OBP and he doesn’t hit for any power anymore.
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Star power: 9 | Youth: 1 | Baserunning: 2.5 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 3 | Minutiae: 3
Bonus: 4. +1 for Ronel Blanco maybe throwing another no-hitter, +1 for Jose Altuve still doing Jose Altuve stuff, +0.5 for the ridiculous movement on Framber Valdez‘s pitches (maybe too much, he walked six in his first start), +0.5 for annoying home runs hit into the Crawford Boxes, +0.5 for the fear you feel every time Yordan Alvarez steps into the box, +0.5 for living legend Justin Verlander
Look, there’s no denying the Astros’ star power: They tied with the Braves for the most players in the top 100 at eight, with Alvarez (No. 8), Altuve (No. 26) and Kyle Tucker (No. 28) each cracking the top 30. Tucker is a potential 30-30 threat (he stole 30 bases and hit 29 home runs last season), but they’re pretty station-to-station on the bases. Of course, we’ll now see if Blanco is the real deal after his no-hitter against the Blue Jays and I’m curious to see if Hunter Brown breaks out. Plus, we’ll get Verlander back at some point. Subjectively, I’d probably put the Astros higher, but this is where our highly scientific system puts them.
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Star power: 3.5 | Youth: 8 | Baserunning: 7 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 1 | Minutiae: 2 |
Bonus: 3. +1 for the Naylor brothers, +1 for Andres Gimenez‘s range at second, +1 for Shane Bieber looking healthy again after striking out 11 on Opening Day (even if it was against the A’s)
With second-year starters Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams, plus sophomore catcher Bo Naylor, the Guardians fare very well in the youth category, and they also run the bases well, with four players stealing at least 20 bases last season (although Myles Straw‘s bat has him back in the minors). The lack of power means they have to win with pitching, defense and speed — a formula that worked in 2022, but not as well in 2023. If Bieber can regain his Cy Young-level form and rookie Brayan Rocchio can provide some offense at shortstop, they have a chance.
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Star power: 2 | Youth: 4.5 | Baserunning: 10 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 4 | Minutiae: 1
Bonus: 4. +1 for Randy Arozarena‘s celebrations, +1 for Zach Eflin‘s immaculate strike-throwing ability, +0.5 for Pete Fairbanks‘ fastball, +0.5 for Jose Caballero‘s confidence, +0.5 for their ability to turn every no-name reliever into a good pitcher, +0.5 for Yandy Diaz‘s biceps
The Rays’ athleticism certainly shows up on the bases, where they’re annually one of the best and most aggressive teams. Oddly, it didn’t show up as much in outfield defense, where Arozarena had just one 4-star catch (no 5-star ones) and Josh Lowe had none of either (Jose Siri is outstanding in center, however) last season. Arozarena and Diaz were the only two Rays to crack the top 100 list, although Eflin, Lowe and Isaac Paredes could all get there and Brandon Lowe has been there in the past. The big negative: Watching games from the Trop is like watching a game played in some 16th-century dungeon in a cold, moldy English castle.
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Star power: 6.5 | Youth: 3.5 | Baserunning: 1.5 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 4. +1 for the Juan Soto Shuffle, +1 for large human Aaron Judge playing center field, +1 for Marcus Stroman‘s six-pitch repertoire and succeeding as a 5-foot-7 pitcher, +0.5 for the potential of Carlos Rodon‘s slider, +0.5 for the hot start
Wait, the Yankees, the crown jewel franchise of the majors, rank only in the middle of the pack? Pinstripes! Yankee Stadium! John Sterling! A fearsome one-two punch in Judge and Soto and homers galore from the likes of Judge, Soto and Giancarlo Stanton certainly means the Yankees should rank higher, right? While Judge (No. 2), Soto (No. 3) and Gerrit Cole (No. 7) all ranked in the top 10, the only other Yankees player in the top 100 was Anthony Volpe at 95. I also discounted the point total a bit since Cole is out at least a couple of months. Of course, the best thing about the Yankees in 2024: If they return to the top of the division after missing the playoffs in 2024, that’s a great story, especially if Judge and Soto tear up the league; if they miss the playoffs again, that’s also a great story.
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Star power: 2 | Youth: 7 | Baserunning: 8.5 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2 | Minutiae: 3
Bonus: 4. +1 for Elly De La Cruz‘s arm, +1 for the possibility De La Cruz will hit a pitch that bounces over the fence, +1 for the hope of seeing De La Cruz going home to third on a triple, +1 for Hunter Greene‘s potential (and blazing fastball)
De La Cruz is a great example of how one off-the-charts rip-roaring ball of dynamite can make an otherwise pedestrian team (other than their overall youth) must-watch viewing. But you know what’s not exciting? Strikeouts, which he has a lot of. At this point, De La Cruz is more hype and potential than actual production (although he did come in at No. 72 in our top 100). Losing Matt McLain to shoulder surgery is a big loss for the Reds, and their ultimate success will depend on their young rotation. If the pitching improves and De La Cruz hits, this Reds team will climb higher on this list.
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Star power: 7.5 | Youth: 3 | Baserunning: 6 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 2 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 3. +1 for Dylan Cease‘s slider, +1 for Ha-Seong Kim‘s defense, +1 for watching games from San Diego and wishing you were there
The Padres have lost Soto, Snell and Josh Hader yet still have Fernando Tatis Jr. (No. 14), Manny Machado (25), Cease (57), Xander Bogaerts (58) and Kim (83) in the top 100, with Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove having top-100 ability at their best. It feels like everyone ignored Tatis last season — which is understandable following the missed season and PED suspension, but he’s still one of the more exciting all-around players in the game. He won the Platinum Glove as the best overall defender in the NL in 2023 after a full-time move to right field, earned due to a combination of range and a strong throwing arm. He stole 29 bases and hit 25 home runs. He’s off to a good start this year and I think the offense improves. I’m also a big fan of the Padres embracing their history and going all-in on brown for their uniforms.
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Star power: 2 | Youth: 7.5 | Baserunning: 6 | Catches: 5 | 425+: 1.5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 3. +1 for Jackson Chourio hype, +1 for Brewers broadcaster Bob Uecker, +0.5 for Abner Uribe‘s fastball, +0.5 for Devin Williams‘ changeup (would get more points, but he’s out for a couple of months)
This surprised me a bit as the Brewers are lacking in star power after trading away Corbin Burnes (they had three players in the top 100, but Willy Adames was the highest at No. 86), but they have young, exciting players all over the field, starting with Chourio, Kiley McDaniel’s No. 2 prospect heading into the season. The outfield defense will be spectacular with Chourio, Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins and Joey Wiemer and the double-play combo of Adames and rookie Joey Ortiz will also be stellar. Rhys Hoskins has already given them a little edge on the field as well. Bonus points for an enthusiastic fan base, Bernie Brewer and the sausage races.
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Star power: 2 | Youth: 6 | Baserunning: 5.5 | Catches: 4 | 425+: 3.5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 4.5. +1 for Oneil Cruz doing all the same things we said about Elly De La Cruz, +1 for Andrew McCutchen, +1 for Jared Jones‘ slider, +1 for Ke’Bryan Hayes‘ defense, +0.5 for the hot start that gives hopes and dreams to Pirates fans
This is not an overreaction to Pittsburgh’s hot start. Nope. THIS IS A SCIENTIFIC SURVEY. I don’t know if the Pirates are going to be good, but they’re going to be more fun than they’ve been in the past. The return of Cruz is a huge part of that, of course, but they’ve added an excellent fly ball chaser in center fielder Michael A. Taylor, while Jones’ debut start with 10 strikeouts and the pending arrival of Paul Skenes and his 100-mph heater helps the youth score. Mix in a great ballpark, classic jerseys and the Roberto Clemente Bridge, and I’ll be watching more Pirates games than I have in years (assuming they keep winning).
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Star power: 5 | Youth: 3 | Baserunning: 7 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 3.5 | Minutiae: 5
Bonus: 3.5. +1 for the Mets’ broadcast booth, +1 for Edwin Diaz and Timmy Trumpet, +1 for Mr. Met, +0.5 for Brandon Nimmo‘s smile
Whoa, the Mets over the Yankees? How can that be possible? The Mets are awful! (So far.) Well, yes, you’re overlooking the unintentional comedy factor here — the Mets will apparently be the Mets, even with a new manager and new president of baseball operations. We’re not even a week into the season, and the Mets have already: (1) instigated a benches-clearing incident and intentionally thrown at a batter; (2) lost a game in extra innings with two bad fielding plays; (3) scored eight runs in four games; (4) stressed that they’re not in panic mode. Tell that to Mets fans.
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Star power: 3 | Youth: 8 | Baserunning: 6 | Catches: 3.5 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 3. +1 for Brayan Bello‘s changeup, +1 for Triston Casas‘ upside (1.034 OPS in the second half), +0.5 for Tyler O’Neill‘s physique, +0.5 for Greg Weissert‘s sweeper
It’s the new-look Red Sox: faster, better defense and a whole lot more entertaining. The Red Sox have been mediocre and uninteresting the past two seasons, but with rookie Ceddanne Rafaela in center, flanked by Jarren Duran and O’Neill, they’ve dramatically upgraded their outfield defense and their overall team speed. Throw in a couple big bashers in Rafael Devers and Casas (the only two Red Sox in the top 100) and this should be a fun offense to watch. Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford also looked outstanding in their first starts as new pitching coach Andrew Bailey may already be improving the staff. Red Sox fans are understandably cranky after the team didn’t spend much this offseason, but I think they’ll grow to like this team — it has a chance to surprise.
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Star power: 9 | Youth: 1 | Baserunning: 5 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 4 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 5. +1 for Trea Turner‘s slides, +1 for Bryce Harper‘s designer cleats, +1 for Zack Wheeler‘s fastball, +1 for Brandon Marsh‘s and Matt Strahm‘s hair, +1 for the best set of uniforms in the majors (yes, that’s technically part of the Minutiae category, but they’re getting a bonus point anyway)
Subjectively, I might’ve ranked the Phillies first: They have star power, they have personality, they’re good, their fans are loud and into the game, Marsh and Johan Rojas give them two plus outfielders and Harper is always a guy you can’t take your eyes off. Alas, since this is an established team of veterans, they score at the bottom of the youth scale, and that hurts their overall ranking. They’re also lacking a bit on the bases, even with Turner’s electric speed and slides, and surprisingly, they didn’t earn a full “5” in the 425-plus foot home run category — they only ranked eighth in the majors in that department last season.
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Star power: 4.5 | Youth: 6 | Baserunning: 10 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 1 | Minutiae: 5
Bonus: 3. +1 for Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner turning two, +1 for “Go Cubs Go,” +0.5 for Justin Steele’s slider, +0.5 for stealing manager Craig Counsell from the Brewers
The Cubs have a lot of items in their favor: They were tied with the Rays as the best baserunning team in the majors last season (Hoerner led the way with 43 steals, but they were efficient and opportunistic up and down the lineup), they get to include Shota Imanaga in the “youth” category alongside Jordan Wicks, and they had a solid four players in the top 100 (and that didn’t include Seiya Suzuki, who I think will crack that list next season after a big 2024). And, of course, the Cubs have Wrigley Field. Baseball perfection on a summer afternoon.
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Star power: 8 | Youth: 9 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 4 | Minutiae: 2
Bonus: 5. +1 for when Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer return, +1 for manager Bruce Bochy, +1 for Evan Carter‘s plate discipline, +1 for Marcus Semien never taking a day off, +0.5 for Adolis Garcia‘s arms, +0.5 for Corey Seager‘s ability to crush the first pitch
The Rangers win the World Series and now add Carter for a full season, plus fellow super rookie Wyatt Langford. What a turnaround for this franchise in such a short time. If they do manage to get a healthy deGrom and Scherzer back in the second half, maybe they can become the first team to repeat since the 2000 Yankees. The dynamic offense is going to score a ton of runs. The only negatives here are a lack of action on the bases — although Carter and Langford will add more speed — and the antiseptic nature of watching a game from Globe Life Field. The jersey set is pretty bland other than the throwback baby blues.
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Star power: 6 | Youth: 10 | Baserunning: 7.5 | Catches: 4 | 425+: 3 | Minutiae: 2
Bonus: 3. +1 for Gabriel Moreno‘s arm, +1 for Zac Gallen‘s ability to change speeds, +0.5 for Eugenio Suarez‘s infectious personality, +0.5 for Corbin Carroll‘s swagger
OK, there’s a lot of Carroll in this ranking: He was No. 10 in the top 100, he still qualifies as a part of the “youth” category, he’s the best baserunner in the game and he was the only outfielder with four 4-star catches last season. He even hit a respectable five home runs of 425-plus feet. He’s not a one-man “SportsCenter” highlight, however: The Diamondbacks have four other players in the top 100 (Gallen, Ketel Marte, Moreno and Merrill Kelly) and have other young players to watch, including Moreno and second-year righty Brandon Pfaadt. If only they’d figure out the uniforms.
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Star power: 10 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 8 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 5. +1 for Spencer Strider‘s mustache, +1 for Strider’s new curveball, +1 for Ronald Acuna Jr.’s flair, +1 for Matt Olson‘s swing, +1 for Charlie Morton still going strong
No shock here as the Braves are overloaded with top-echelon talent and are likely on their way to a third straight 100-win season, after the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz Braves had three straight from 1997 to 1999. If you like offense, the Braves are your team. If you like speed, the Braves have it with Acuna and Michael Harris II, and they were a top-five baserunning team in 2023. If you like defense, the Braves are solid across the board. If you like pitching, the Braves have even more of it than last season, and Strider would top many lists as the No. 1 must-see starter in the game. Last season, they staked their claim as one of the best single-season lineups. If they do it again — and top it off with a World Series title — they go down as maybe the best ever.
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Star power: 6 | Youth: 10 | Baserunning: 9 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2 | Minutiae: 5
Bonus: 5. +1 for Gunnar Henderson making The Leap (he will), +1 for Corbin Burnes‘ cutter, +1 for Kyle Bradish‘s slider/curveball combo, +1 for Adley Rutschman‘s leadership, +1 for being so good they didn’t even need Jackson Holliday to start the season
It’s not just that the Orioles are young and good and got even better in adding an ace in Burnes, but they play such a clean, efficient brand of baseball. They run the bases, they execute on defense and they don’t just rely on home runs to score runs (which is harder to do anyway with the deeper left field at Camden Yards). They still have Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez as sophomores and no-doubters to improve, and then they’ll be adding Holliday, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad during the season as needed. They play in one of the best parks in the majors, have a timeless set of uniforms and have a fan base that is going to fill the park this season.
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Star power: 10 | Youth: 6.5 | Baserunning: 6 | Catches: 4 | 425+: 4 | Minutiae: 5
Bonus: 5. +1 for Mookie Betts playing shortstop, +1 for Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s splitter, +1 for Tyler Glasnow‘s curveball, +1 for Freddie Freeman‘s doubles, +1 for Shohei Ohtani
You probably knew this was coming even if you’re on the side of Dodger Hater. The only negative for Dodgers fans — aside from Max Muncy‘s defense — might be that they’re going to be leading a lot of games 7-2 in the sixth inning. Here’s one surprising thing about the Dodgers: They didn’t hit many 425-plus-foot home runs last season. Betts and Freeman only hit three apiece. They found a way to fix that by adding Ohtani, who topped the majors with 21 such blasts (and he brings speed on the bases). Teoscar Hernandez also brings power and the occasional 4-star catch (even though overall he’s not a great defender). On top of that, you get Dodger Stadium with that perfect “Dodgers” script and the sun shining bright.
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Hicks, ex-owner of Rangers and Stars, dies at 79
Published
6 hours agoon
December 7, 2025By
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Associated Press
Dec 7, 2025, 02:44 AM ET
DALLAS — Tom Hicks, the Texas businessman and philanthropist who owned two Dallas-area professional sports franchises and an English Premier League soccer team, died Saturday. He was 79.
Spokesperson Lisa LeMaster said in statement that Hicks died peacefully in Dallas surrounded by family.
Hicks owned the NHL’s Dallas Stars from 1995 to 2011, winning the Stanley Cup in 1999. He also owned baseball’s Texas Rangers from 1998 to 2010, leading them to three American West Division titles and a World Series appearance. In 2007, he acquired a 50% stake in Liverpool.
“Being shoulder to shoulder with him was always about more than ballparks and stadiums, though,” Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said in a statement. “It was about personal respect, trust and friendship. We shared a lot of miles together, and I’ll miss him greatly. My heart goes out to his family.”
Hicks co-founded Hicks & Haas in 1984 and helped reshape private equity and investing strategy. He served on the University of Texas’s board of regents from 1994 to 1999.
“Tom Hicks was an innovative businessman and a pioneer in private equity,” fellow Texas businessman Ross Perot Jr. said in a statement. “He combined his commitment to business and sports through his ownership of the Stars and the Rangers.”
Hicks is survived by his wife of 35 years, Cinda Cree Hicks, and his six children — Thomas Ollis Hicks Jr., Mack Hardin Hicks, John Alexander Hicks, Robert Bradley Hicks, William Cree Hicks and Catherine Forgrave Hicks.
His children released a joint statement, saying:
“Of everything he accomplished in his remarkable life, Tom Hicks’s most cherished title was, ‘Dad.’ No matter the trials and tribulations he faced in life, he was constant in his generosity and love for his family. He remains a guiding force for our family, and we are deeply honored to continue expanding his legacy. Although we are devastated by this loss, we are profoundly grateful to have been his children.”
Sports
Final bowl projections: Predicting every postseason game
Published
7 hours agoon
December 7, 2025By
admin

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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
Dec 7, 2025, 01:00 AM ET
After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?
We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
All times Eastern
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State

Complete bowl season schedule
Matchups in bold have already been announced
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Sports
Projecting the final CFP top 12: Where does Alabama land?
Published
7 hours agoon
December 7, 2025By
admin

Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.
It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.
With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.
Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?
Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.

Projecting the top 12
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Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.
Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
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Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.
Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.
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Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.
Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).
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Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.
Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.
Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).
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Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.
Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.
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Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.
Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.
Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.
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Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.
Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.
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Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.
Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.
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Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.
Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.
Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.
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Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.
Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.
Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.
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Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.
Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.
Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.
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Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.
Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.

Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
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