Passan: Pitching injuries are out of control — and it’s time to take action
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
It’s all so ugly. Every day, it seems, another ulnar collateral ligament falls prey to the mere act of throwing a baseball. In a recent 48-hour period, Eury Perez, Shane Bieber and Spencer Strider — the best young pitcher in baseball, the 2020 American League Cy Young winner and the game’s current strikeout king, respectively — all went down with damaged elbows. A game already too thin on starting pitching continues to lose its greatest talent at an alarming rate.
The elbow crisis has been building for decades, from youth levels to the major leagues, and nobody in a position of power has done anything of substance to address it. This is not a bad stretch of luck or an anomaly. It’s an existential problem for baseball.
In addition to the absences facing Perez and Bieber, who will soon undergo Tommy John surgery, and Strider, who might need his second at 25 years old, the list of players already recovering from elbow reconstruction includes an MVP (Shohei Ohtani), Cy Young winners (Jacob deGrom, Sandy Alcantara, Robbie Ray), All-Stars (Shane McClanahan, Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito, Felix Bautista) and young standouts (Dustin May, Andrew Painter, Shane Baz, Kumar Rocker). Reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is out until at least the end of May with elbow issues.
On and on it goes, this unrelenting train of bad news, and if this isn’t a call to action for everyone with a whit of influence in the baseball universe to pour their energy into confronting it, nothing is. For the sake of the game, the whole of the sport must work together to crack a dilemma with no obvious solution.
Which made the dueling statements from the Major League Baseball Players Association and MLB on Saturday so disappointing. An issue this complex, this difficult to wrangle, demands cooperation from all parties with the ability to affect change. Instead, the public proclamations in the wake of the latest Tommy John surgeries oozed pettiness.
The union’s statement focused on the pitch clock, implemented in 2023, and the two-second reduction with runners on base amended this season. It did not mention the sport’s drastic increase in pitch velocity or the constant maximum-effort approach pitchers take or the extreme emphasis on spin or the proliferation of year-round baseball or any number of other possible contributing factors. It relitigated a single issue — a not-unreasonable one, but one nonetheless — of a multipronged problem, saying: “The league’s unwillingness thus far to acknowledge or study the effects of these profound changes is an unprecedented threat to our game and its most valuable asset — the Players.”
MLB’s response did not help matters. It discussed velocity and spin — and trumpeted the league’s efforts to combat elbow injuries through a research study it’s undertaking. But in trying to defend the pitch clock — one of the defining accomplishments of commissioner Rob Manfred’s tenure — the league cited a study from Johns Hopkins University “that found no evidence to support that the introduction of the pitch clock has increased injuries.”
Without any sense of the exact questions the study sought to answer, the data it combed through and the specificity of its conclusions, it’s difficult to glean anything meaningful from the league’s proclamations. Considering the study remains in peer review, using its unverifiable findings, even as a rejoinder to the union’s statement, speaks to a lack of the transparency that’s imperative in tackling the problem.
Here’s what progress would look like: The voices of current pitchers — the ones who step out onto the mound knowing their elbows are ticking time bombs — factoring heavily in MLB’s decision-making. They are the ones who feel the pain, who internalize the fear that what’s expected of them — throw harder, spin faster — predisposes them to major surgery. They’re the ones who exist in an industry that asks ever more of them — more velo, nastier stuff, full tilt all the time — and leaves behind those who don’t offer it.
Pitchers have always gotten hurt — and will always get hurt — but at the highest levels the causes have morphed from longer-term overuse injuries to shorter-burst, higher-intensity, muscles-and-ligaments-can’t-handle-it ones. Teams incentivize pitchers to throw in a way that many experts believe is the root cause of the game’s injury issues. As much as velocity correlates with injuries, it does so similarly with productivity. Throw harder, perform better. It’s a fact. It’s also bad for the health of pitchers — and the game.
At the same time, it’s not the only factor. The fact that the union wants more information on the pitch clock should matter to MLB. Even if the league did bargain during negotiations with the MLBPA for a far shorter window to implement on-field rules changes, it can’t ignore what players continue to begrudge. This isn’t idle bellyaching. Pitchers want to understand why the extra two seconds shaved off the clock this year were so imperative. And why they aren’t entitled to one or two timeouts a game when they feel discomfort — a nerve sending a shock of pain up their arm, a muscle spasming and in need of a break. And why there still isn’t an accepted grip agent to help with balls they believe remain inconsistently manufactured. All issues of health.
Pitchers know the injury data. They’ve seen the number of Tommy John surgeries ballooning at the big league level. It’s even more pronounced in the minor leagues, and the surge over the past decade aligns with the implementation of the pitch clock at lower levels. But it also coincides with baseball’s pitch-design era, in which the use of technology — Trackman and Rapsodo machines that gauge spin characteristics, and super-slow-motion cameras that capture grips and releases — allows pitchers to fabricate new pitches not based on their comfort or ease throwing them but on detailed movement measurements to which they aspire.
Maybe it’s the clock. Maybe it’s pitch design. Maybe it’s velocity. Maybe it’s all of the above. Regardless of what it is, one truth the baseball universe knows is that the greatest predictor of a future arm injury is a past arm injury. In other words: The litany of pitchers who are hurt now are at far greater risk of getting hurt again.
When a sport has evolved to the point where half of its participants are encouraged to compete in a way deeply detrimental to their short-term — and in many cases, long-term — health, there is no room for politicking, bickering, blaming. With a sound process and commitment from both sides to it, all of the important questions would be asked and, hopefully, answered. This is about the people, and it is about the game, and it is about the awful place where the two are intersecting.
If anything in baseball deserves max effort, this is it.
There are six weeks left in the 2025 MLB season, and after it seemed as if some of baseball’s top teams were running away with their divisions early on, we’ve seen those leads shrink to, in some cases, zero.
In the National League West, we’ve seen the Dodgers’ commanding lead be erased entirely, as the Padres now lead their rivals by one game atop the division — and with a series between the two coming up this weekend.
The same has happened in the American League West, with the Astros overtaking the Mariners earlier in the season and building a cushion atop the division, only to see that disappear as Seattle has won eight of its last 10 games to be just one game back from Houston.
Meanwhile, the Brewers have built a comfortable lead in the NL Central — and atop the majors, with the best record in all of baseball — after overtaking the Cubs late last month thanks to a number of winning streaks, including the current 12-game one.
Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Alden Gonzalez and Jesse Rogers to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 18 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 76-44
Previous ranking: 1
Sometimes there just aren’t enough words to describe how a team is doing what it is doing. It becomes less about talent — and, don’t get me wrong, Milwaukee is talented — and more about belief and confidence. The Brewers are riding that high right now, believing every time they step on the field, this is their game. But it still takes production to win, and during their latest win streak, Brice Turang and William Contreras have led them with big hit after big hit. Contreras has been playing top-level baseball over the past two weeks, hitting six home runs in the span of 12 games while Turang hit six in 11. Milwaukee looks unstoppable right now. — Rogers
Record: 69-51
Previous ranking: 2
Ranger Suarez has been dominant on the road this season but imploded against the Reds on Tuesday when he gave up 10 hits and six runs in 5⅓ innings. That game raised Philadelphia’s starting rotation ERA to over 4.00 since the All-Star break. It’s probably not much of a concern as the Phillies have more important days ahead of them, so getting Suarez, Zack Wheeler, Christopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo ready for the postseason should be No.1 on the team’s to-do list. A comfortable lead in the division will help that cause come September. — Rogers
Record: 70-51
Previous ranking: 6
As Shane Bieber finishes his minor league rehabilitation and prepares to join the Toronto rotation, manager John Schneider and his staff will have some choices. They could go to a six-man rotation, maybe temporarily, to give the team’s veteran starters a little extra rest in the last weeks of the season. Or they could shift someone to the bullpen. Lefty Eric Lauer has been a revelation for the Jays this year, posting a 3.36 ERA in 13 starts, but he has the most experience out of the ‘pen among the Toronto starters. — Olney
Record: 68-53
Previous ranking: 4
Brock Stewart, the Dodgers’ big deadline addition to the bullpen, is dealing with shoulder inflammation and was placed on the injured list Tuesday, where he joined five other high-leverage relievers. Manager Dave Roberts is once again short on options to hold leads late, but his offense has also been too inconsistent to routinely obtain leads in the first place. And oftentimes when the lineup produces, that day’s starting pitcher does not. The Dodgers have been a sub-.500 team since the start of July and can’t do much right these days, which might make this a really bad time for them to host the surging Padres this weekend. — Gonzalez
Record: 70-52
Previous ranking: 5
As the Tigers try to hold off Cleveland down the stretch, they will have to defend first place head-to-head. Six of Detroit’s final 12 games in the regular season are against the Guardians — at home Sept. 16-18, and in Cleveland Sept. 23-25. But according to FanGraphs, only three teams — the Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers — face a weaker schedule than the Tigers over the last quarter of the season. — Olney
Record: 67-54
Previous ranking: 11
The Mariners won their eighth consecutive game Tuesday night and moved into a first-place tie with Houston in the AL West — marking the first time since the start of June that they’ve held a share of the division lead. The Mariners, now a game back after Wednesday’s loss, have won nine of 11 since the front office made a multitude of win-now moves at the trade deadline and will spend these next six-plus weeks gunning for their first division title since 2001. They’ll get some additional help, too, with Bryce Miller rejoining the rotation soon and Victor Robles settling back atop the lineup shortly thereafter. The vibes in Seattle are on another level right now. — Gonzalez
Record: 68-51
Previous ranking: 3
Chicago might have to focus on a wild-card spot, as an offensive slump combined with the Brewers’ hot streak has tanked the Cubs’ percentages to win the division. The good news is the starting staff has kept them above water, ranking first in ERA since the All-Star break. But a power outage in the middle of the order is concerning. Kyle Tucker, who might still be feeling the aftereffects of a jammed finger suffered on June 1, has just a handful of extra-base hits since the calendar turned to July. The power lull has seemingly infected everyone in the lineup — outside of rookie Matt Shaw. — Rogers
Record: 69-52
Previous ranking: 8
Michael King made his long-awaited return to the Padres’ rotation Friday, and though it resulted in an ineffective, two-inning outing, the fact that he was there in the first place was a major development for a Padres team that seems to be rounding into the best version of itself for the season’s stretch run. The lineup — bolstered by the additions of Ramon Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin — once again looks deep. The bullpen, fortified by the addition of Mason Miller, is one of the game’s best. The rotation is as close to whole as it has been all year. And now the Padres are poised to take down the Dodgers in the NL West. — Gonzalez
Record: 68-53
Previous ranking: 10
The Astros find themselves in a tight division race with the surging Mariners and will have to try to fend Seattle off, at least in the near term, without their star closer, Josh Hader, who landed on the IL on Tuesday with what the team described as a shoulder strain. The Astros still don’t know the severity of the injury, but manager Joe Espada called it a “punch to the gut.” Hader converted his first 25 save chances this season and sports a 2.05 ERA, with 76 strikeouts in 52⅔ innings. Bryan Abreu can be a capable closer in the meantime, but Hader’s absence significantly weakens the entirety of the bullpen. — Gonzalez
Record: 66-56
Previous ranking: 9
It seems appropriate that Roman Anthony wears No. 19 for the Red Sox, since his immediate impact is similar to the work of another Red Sox player who wore No. 19: Fred Lynn, the 1975 Rookie of the Year and MVP. Anthony has a 135 OPS+ with an on-base percentage of .399 in 53 games, and, like Lynn in his rookie season, Anthony has quickly become a core piece of Boston’s offense. — Olney
Record: 64-55
Previous ranking: 7
A collective slump at the plate since late July has been maddening for New York, although Pete Alonso setting the franchise record for home runs was a recent bright spot. Maybe the Mets will look back at their 13-5 win over Atlanta on Tuesday — when Alonso set the mark — as a turning point.
Right now, you could throw a dart at their roster and you’ll probably hit a player who is struggling at the plate. That does actually include Alonso, who has an OBP under .250 since the All-Star break. Francisco Lindor might be the most frustrated of the group as he’s hitting .188 over his last 23 games. As he and Alonso go, so do the Mets. They’re too good to continue on the pace they were on before Tuesday. — Rogers
Record: 64-57
Previous ranking: 12
Some of New York’s trade deadline acquisitions started out their Yankees campaigns infamously, with that ugly game in Miami. But in the past eight days, reliever David Bednar has provided some stability for the bullpen, twice making five-out appearances while striking out 12 in seven innings over that span. Manager Aaron Boone has more to figure out about his bullpen, but he seems to have settled on a closer. — Olney
Record: 64-58
Previous ranking: 14
A starting staff that ranks fourth in the NL in ERA got a boost with the return of Hunter Greene from injury. Could that be the difference-maker Cincinnati needs to make a playoff push? It might be a moot point if the Reds don’t hit enough. Every few games, they show signs of being capable of a potent offense, but then they revert to lower-scoring days, as they did last week in losing three games while scoring a total of just three runs. Miguel Andujar came up big over the past seven days, compiling an OPS over 1.300. The Reds need more contributions like that. — Rogers
Record: 62-57
Previous ranking: 15
Cleveland has won 21 of its past 30 games, thriving through a period in which it lost closer Emmanuel Clase to a leave of absence related to a gambling investigation; traded Shane Bieber, who had been expected to join the Cleveland rotation down the stretch; and listened to offers for Steven Kwan. The Guardians’ improbable surge is reminiscent of that of the 2024 Tigers. — Olney
Record: 61-61
Previous ranking: 13
The Rangers won their second consecutive game against the Yankees on Aug. 5, at which point they stood just a half-game back of a playoff spot. It seemed then as if the 2023 World Series champs — a team that has spent most of the time since searching for some consistent offense — were finally poised to make their move. Then Texas slipped once more, getting swept at home by the Phillies and totaling just seven runs over the course of a four-game losing streak. The Rangers are running out of time to showcase the consistent baseball they still believe they’re capable of. — Gonzalez
Record: 61-61
Previous ranking: 19
Is this the real Jordan Walker? Has he finally arrived? OK, that might be over the top for a .233 hitter, but he has been on a nice run since the All-Star break, hitting around .300, though with just one home run. More recently, he had an 8-for-16 stretch that included back-to-back three-hit games. His development is part of the Cardinals’ big picture strategy for the season, which has been all about allowing their young players to succeed or fail without looking over their collective shoulders too much. Outside of going on the IL due to appendicitis, Walker has had that opportunity. Could 2026 finally be the year for the 23-year-old? Stay tuned. — Rogers
Record: 59-62
Previous ranking: 16
The Giants haven’t had a winning month since April. At this point, they’re clearly playing for next year. With that in mind, though, perhaps Rafael Devers, the mid-June acquisition that was supposed to catapult them to the top of the NL West, is finally starting to figure out Oracle Park and get back to who he is. After slashing just .230/.337/.368 in July, Devers is slashing .267/.389/.556 in his first 12 games of August. Giants manager Bob Melvin told reporters Devers is “taking more balanced swings, a little more fluid,” a result, Melvin thinks, of no longer trying to do too much. — Gonzalez
Record: 60-61
Previous ranking: 18
On the day that Kansas City acquired Adam Frazier, one rival evaluator was confused by the move, citing Frazier’s struggles in Pittsburgh, where he hit .255 with a .318 OBP. But the Royals got Frazier in part because of his stabilizing influence in the clubhouse, and he has played well for Kansas City so far, hitting over .300 and helping to spur an offense that has been significantly better of late. In the first half of the season, the Royals ranked 29th of 30 teams in runs scored; since the All-Star break, they rank sixth. — Olney
Record: 59-63
Previous ranking: 17
Tampa Bay has an excellent track record for flipping proven talent and developing the young players they acquire in return. However, that has not been the case for Christopher Morel, who has had a disappointing season with a minus-0.6 WAR. Morel, who came to the Rays from the Cubs last year in the swap for Isaac Paredes, has 18 walks and 88 strikeouts in 241 plate appearances in 2025. — Olney
Record: 58-62
Previous ranking: 20
Miami’s chances at making a wild-card run took a hit last week when it batted .218 as a team with two home runs over a span of six games. The Marlins lost five of them, including a crushing doubleheader sweep by the Braves over the weekend. Game 2 was the killer, as the Marlins led 4-0 before falling 8-6. In those six games, Kyle Stowers went 2-for-21 (.095) as Miami ranked 27th in OPS for the week. It helped drop them further behind the other NL wild-card teams. — Rogers
Record: 59-62
Previous ranking: 21
Geraldo Perdomo has quietly been among the game’s best shortstops over the past four years, and now he’s in the midst of his best season. The switch-hitting 25-year-old boasts a .955 OPS since the start of July, putting his slash line up to .286/.386/.443 this season. Combine that with his typically solid defense and opportunistic baserunning, and Perdomo already compiled 4.7 FanGraphs WAR, ranked eighth among position players. It’s clear why the D-backs gave him a four-year, $45 million extension earlier this year — despite the presence of top prospect Jordan Lawlar. — Gonzalez
Record: 59-62
Previous ranking: 22
Zach Neto homered twice against the Dodgers on Monday, then turned a triple play against Shohei Ohtani in what amounted to a massive momentum shift in another Angels victory Tuesday. The latter, Neto said, was the highlight. It accounted for the first triple play of his life, and it came against one of the game’s best players. “It was pretty special,” said Neto, who was perfectly positioned to catch Ohtani’s line drive up the middle, then stepped on second base and fired to first, all in a matter of roughly three seconds. The Angels once again don’t have much to play for this season, but they completed a sweep of the Dodgers on Wednesday and finished 6-0 against their crosstown rivals this season. — Gonzalez
Record: 57-63
Previous ranking: 23
With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, rival GMs believe that Minnesota was never actually open to the idea of trading right-hander Joe Ryan. With the Twins’ announcement that they’ll be adding new minority owners, there will be questions about whether Ryan can be locked down to a long-term deal, but even if that doesn’t happen, his trade value will continue to be sky-high, assuming he stays healthy, into the offseason. Cast against the landscape of a relatively thin free agent starting pitching class, he’d be in high demand from contenders. — Olney
Record: 54-66
Previous ranking: 24
A rival executive mused last week about Baltimore’s thin pitching and saturation of position player prospects. “The Orioles should have Garrett Crochet,” he said, noting how well Baltimore matched up with what the White Sox reportedly were looking for in a Crochet trade. This is just one what-if in a long list of what-ifs as the Orioles begin the process of building a pitching staff for 2026. — Olney
Record: 52-68
Previous ranking: 25
If the Braves are going to quickly return to contender status next season, they’ll need Spencer Strider at his best. That hasn’t been the case in his first season back after undergoing elbow surgery. Strider has given up 13 runs in 8⅔ innings this month after having an OK July where he threw two quality starts in five outings. We’ll see where his fastball velocity is next spring, but right now, it’s down 3 mph from 2022, 2 mph from 2023 and 1 mph from before his injury. Can he be successful at 95 mph rather than 98 mph? — Rogers
Record: 54-69
Previous ranking: 26
The A’s still have a lot of work to do to become competitive again, but their offense is legitimately promising. And one of the many reasons for that is Shea Langeliers, the 27-year-old catcher who slumped through the first two months of the season but has been one of the game’s best hitters in recent weeks. Since the All-Star break, Langeliers ranks second in the majors with a 1.227 OPS — just behind his teammate, Nick Kurtz, at 1.249 — and has accumulated 12 home runs, tied with Kyle Schwarber for tops in the sport. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-71
Previous ranking: 27
When will the misery end for Pirates fans? They’ve lost five in a row, including a Paul Skenes start in which Milwaukee beat them 14-0 on Tuesday. Pittsburgh’s problem is the same as it has always been: It can’t hit. Consider this: The Pirates have hit a major league-worst 86 home runs, which is 17 less than the Padres, who rank 29th. And it’s an astounding 105 home runs behind the Yankees, who lead MLB. Without more power next season, Pittsburgh will land right back where it is now … in last place in the division. — Rogers
Record: 44-77
Previous ranking: 28
The only member of the White Sox organization under contract for 2026 is Andrew Benintendi, for $17.1 million. Otherwise, moving forward, the White Sox have almost no payroll obligations. This made it easy for them to bet on the upside of Luis Robert Jr. and keep him through the deadline; presumably, they will pick up his $20 million option in the winter, and they’ll continue to hope that Robert’s potential fully manifests. — Olney
Record: 48-72
Previous ranking: 29
Somehow the Nationals do not have the worst ERA in baseball since the All-Star break despite looking horrendous on the mound. Their struggles there have affected every part of their pitching staff — MacKenzie Gore gave up eight runs in a recent start, Jake Irvin gave up six and Mitchell Parker gave up five. Washington feels like it’s playing out the string on the mound as the staff has given up 80 runs in eight losses this month. The team needs some overhauling in the offseason, starting with a new general manager and manager. — Rogers
Record: 32-88
Previous ranking: 30
August is only 14 days old and it already includes an eight-game losing streak for the Rockies. The Rockies have suffered through five eight-game losing streaks this season. Their run differential is a whopping minus-326, more than double that of the second-worst team (the Nationals at minus-148). And of their remaining 13 series, seven will come against teams that will likely be in the playoffs this year, including three against the Dodgers and Padres. With a little more than six weeks remaining, the Rockies are on pace for 119 losses, two shy of the modern-day record set by the 2024 White Sox. It’s going to be close. — Gonzalez
One day after returning from a lengthy absence, Chicago Cubs catcher Miguel Amaya is headed right back to the injured list after spraining his left ankle while stepping on first base Wednesday night against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Amaya was carted off the field after his foot landed awkwardly at the front of the base as he beat out an infield single in the eighth inning. Amaya twisted in the air after the impact and landed on his back.
“You knew something was pretty seriously wrong pretty quickly,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said.
Cubs athletic trainers eventually lifted Amaya onto a waiting cart, and he was driven off while holding a towel over his face. Counsell said X-rays did not reveal a fracture.
“It’s swollen up pretty good already,” Counsell said about Amaya’s ankle after the Cubs beat the Blue Jays 4-1. “It’s an IL. It’s bad luck, unfortunately, and we’re going to miss him.”
The 26-year-old Amaya was reinstated from the injured list Tuesday after being sidelined since May 25 because of a left oblique strain. He had hit .280 with four homers and 25 RBIs in 27 games prior to that injury.
“I hate to see what happened to him,” Cubs rookie right-hander Cade Horton said of Amaya. “Prayers to him. He’s a special player, a great teammate.”
To take Amaya’s spot on the roster, the Cubs are calling up their No. 2 prospect, outfielder Owen Caissie, sources told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and Kiley McDaniel. Caissie, 23, is hitting .292 with 22 home runs and a .966 OPS at Triple-A Iowa.
Caissie was acquired in December 2020 for Yu Darvish in a seven-player deal that included four prospects returning to the Cubs. Caissie is the lone player to make it to the majors.
Caissie has been on fire at Triple-A this season, hitting .378 with 10 home runs in his last 26 games. He is a native of Ontario and is likely to make his debut as the designated hitter in the Cubs’ series finale in Toronto on Thursday.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
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